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September 19, 2024 at 9:15 pm #1205957563
I know that we’ll never know and in some cases it’s quite difficult to even hazard a guess given how idiosyncratically some of the branches vote. But analysing the results of the Emmys that just came can sometimes give us clues as to what is to come in the future so I’m curious as to what people’s thoughts are here.
ReplyFYC: Put the MORE back in Demi Moore
FYC: Hard Truths is a small film with a big heart. Marianne Jean-Baptiste gives the performance of the year and Michele Austin is incredible.
TV FYC: Kevin Kline ("Disclaimer), Bridget Everett ("Somebody Somewhere")
September 19, 2024 at 9:42 pm #1205957579My thoughts
Comedy Series: The Bear (pretty much a clear one I think given how part of the reason Hacks was able to beat it was because it had comparable across the board support)
Drama Series: Slow Horses (Without Shōgun it would have won actor and editing and potentially could have taken casting given Nina Gold and guest actor too. Only strike against it is that it still wouldn’t have gotten Kristin Scott Thomas in but I don’t think that matters much when The Morning Show would still have been lacking a writing nomination, Mr. and Mrs. Smith would have been lacking in passion and The Crown would still have not won anything outside of Debicki. Hacks also shows you can win series without spamming in acting nominations if you have passion)
Limited Series: Ripley (maybe? It did perform the best of the other four series nominees and pulled off that massive upset in directing but I do question if it maybe would have had broad enough appeal to win)
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Comedy Actor: Martin Short (the only other nominee who had a pulse)
Drama Actor: Gary Oldman
Limited/Movie Actor: Andrew Scott
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Comedy Actress: Ayo Edebiri (PWB vs Brosnahan all over again)
Drama Actress: Jennifer Aniston (Crudup being able to triumph over Asano tells me that the ways in which The Morning Show performs at SAG aren’t ultimately too dissimilar with how it resonated with the Television Academy’s actors branch and similar to Short in comedy actor or Oldman in drama actor she’s the only nominee in her category who showed a pulse)
Limited/Movie Actress: Juno Temple (Morris winning and Hamm getting in at SAG I think puts to bed the theory that the actors branch aren’t big fans of the show and I think for as many misses as they do have the TCA can be quite good prognosticators when it comes to foreshadowing acting Emmy wins — see Comer getting in without Oh in 2019 or Einbinder missing out whilst Hacks took comedy and individual achievement there this year)
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Comedy Supporting Actor: Tyler James Williams (I think this would have been a repeat of what happened in limited/movie supporting actor except perhaps less shocking lol)
Drama Supporting Actor: Tadanobu Asano (He must have been surely?)
Limited/Movie Supporting Actor: Who tf knows? I’m inclined to say Hawkes because of the visibility and the lead actress/supporting actor stat but even the fact that he lost in this wide open category in the first place feels like a testament to how weak him and the other contenders were.
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Comedy Supporting Actress: Hannah Einbinder (she may not have had enough support to win but she still had a lot more than the other contenders and I maintain that I think Streep and Burnett cancelled each other out)
Drama Supporting Actress: Lesley Manville
Limited/Movie Supporting Actress: Kali Reis (although I think Night Country not winning anything outside of Foster is a testament to how it is respected more than it is loved so maybe it was just Mau in the end)
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Comedy Directing: Hacks (I think The Bear winning here in spite of still losing series is a testament to how weak Hacks was in this department as much as how strong “Fishes” was. But it wasn’t without its support with its cinematography and editing nominations.)
Drama Directing: Slow Horses (simply because of how adamantly I think it was the runner up in series. Could see it being Murai instead though)
Limited/Movie Directing: Baby ReindeerReplyCopy URLFYC: Put the MORE back in Demi Moore
FYC: Hard Truths is a small film with a big heart. Marianne Jean-Baptiste gives the performance of the year and Michele Austin is incredible.
TV FYC: Kevin Kline ("Disclaimer), Bridget Everett ("Somebody Somewhere")
September 19, 2024 at 11:54 pm #1205957677My guesses:
Runners Up….
Drama Series: The Morning Show
Drama Actor: Gary Oldman, Slow Horses
Drama Actress: Jennifer Aniston, The Morning Show
Drama Sup Actor: Tadanobu Asano, Shogun
Drama Sup Actress: Christine Baranski, The Gilded Age
Drama Guest Actress: Clare Foy, The Crown
Drama Guest Actor: Jonathan Pryce, Slow HorsesComedy Series: The Bear
Comedy Actor: Martin Short, Only Murders in the Building
Comedy Actress: Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary
Comedy Sup Actor: Paul W. Downs, Hacks
Comedy Sup Actress: Hannah Einbinder, Hacks
Comedy Guest Actor: Christopher Lloyd, Hacks
Comedy Guest Actress: Kaitlin Olson, HacksLimited Series: Fargo
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Limited Actor: Andrew Scott, Ripley
Limited Actress: Juno Temple, Fargo
Limited Sup Actor: Jonathan Bailey, Fellow Travelers
Limited Sup Actress: Kali Reis, True DetectiveSeptember 20, 2024 at 1:10 am #1205957695For drama Asano was second for sure, and that writing win tell me Slow Horses and Oldman were also secondo for series and actor.
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Before the cerimony I would have said Staunton for actress, but now I would bet on Aniston (and I feel a bit sorry for her, cause I think she was also very close in 2020).
Supporting actress, really I could have seen anyone apart maybe from Karen Pittman.September 20, 2024 at 1:54 am #1205957718My personal feelings:
Drama Series: Slow Horses (I do think The Morning Show is possible as well)
Drama Actor: Gary Oldman
Drama Actress: Jennifer Aniston (I do feel like Witherspoon is stronger than some may think though)
Drama Supporting Actor: Tadanobu Asano
Drama Supporting Actress: Nicole Beharie
Drama Directing: Slow Horses
Drama Writing: Shogun (Crimson Sky)Comedy Series: The Bear
Comedy Actress: Ayo Edebiri
Comedy Actor: Martin Short
Comedy Supporting Actress: Hannah Einbinder? (Though the fact she didn’t win at all really doesn’t bode well for her IMO. I definitely think it could have been Streep or Burnett as well)
Comedy Supporting Actor: Paul W. Downs
Comedy Directing: Hacks
Comedy Writing: The BearLimited Series: Ripley (though I do feel True Detective is possible as well if it can Supporting Actress and Writing without Baby Reindeer)
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Limited Actress: Juno Temple (the Morris win probably sews this up?)
Limited Actor: Andrew Scott
Limited Supporting Actress: Kali Reis
Limited Supporting Actor: No fucking clue lmao. I guess I’ll go with Jonathan Bailey?
Limited Directing: True Detective (Obviously Baby Reindeer makes sense, but with Ripley winning, the single directed auteur trend looks really fucking strong lol)
Limited Writing: Ripley or True DetectiveSeptember 20, 2024 at 2:45 am #1205957727Supporting actress, really I could have seen anyone apart maybe from Karen Pittman.
I feel like I’d be more or less guessing on supporting actress.
ReplyCopy URLNot now
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