My Reasons: EEAAO and The Fabelmans look pretty safe, and The Woman King and Glass Onion seem pretty logical. That last slot is a killer. I'm going with Top Gun over Banshees, based on the latter's huge popularity. And I can see Women Talking really missing with SAG.

My Reasons: I think that these five are fairly safe. If I Wanna Dance with Somebody had been a bit better received, Ackie might have had a shot at a nom. (Didn't she almost have it all?)

My Reasons: Okay. Fraser and Butler are pretty obvious. And Farrell should make it, too. After that, it's kind of a head-scratcher. I don't see Nighy scoring at SAG because they usually don't go for such understated performances. Jackman is such a SAG-friendly actor and it's such a theatrical role - I think he gets in. And for that final slot...I'm going out on a limb with LaBelle, because he was such a revelation in the film and it's a part that actors can relate to (a kid having a dream.)

My Reasons: I bet on Curtis for the nom when she was 100/1 in the Gold Derby odds. (Can you say Super Bet?) My only difference from the five Gold Derby odds leaders is that I have Hsu in over Buckley. The wave of support for EEAAO will really help Hsu. Plus, assuming that enough committee members even screened Women Talking, I'm not convinced that they would be able to single out any of them for a nom.

My Reasons: The only sure things are Quan and Gleeson. I think Dano and Hirsch get in thanks to support for The Fabelmans. And Redmayne is helped by being in a Netflix film. I think that Keoghan misses here, though he'll get in at the Oscars. Anyone else making it in will be a major surprise.