Ominous signs for democracy?

The year 2024 is being dubbed as a ‘year of elections’ — with more than two billion people across 50 countries slated to participate in polls this year. Democracy will stand its test in prominent countries including India, the United States, South Africa, Taiwan etc. But the first of the big battles will take place in Bangladesh which is scheduled to go to polls tomorrow. The Awami League, led by Sheikh Hasina, is seeking its fourth consecutive term in power, while the Bangladesh National Party (BNP) — the main opposition party — has declared a boycott. They have called for a 48-hour nationwide general strike starting today. The purpose of the strike is to demand the resignation of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's ‘illegal government’ and to express opposition to the upcoming January 7 general election. As things stand today, despite speculated anti-incumbency and looming economic downturn, Sheikh Hasina is expected to return to power, devoid of any substantial opposition. It may be easily recalled that the BNP had boycotted the 2014 General Elections as well. While it participated in 2019 General Elections, it later termed it to be a ‘mistake’. The BNP has repeatedly expressed its dissatisfaction with the Hasina government, alleging that the voting process under the regime has been persistently marred with widespread rigging and intimidation. Consequently, it has been demanding that elections be held under a neutral caretaker government, which the ruling Awami League has rejected. Notably, the Constitutional provision allowing for a caretaker government stands quashed, albeit in a contentious manner. Concerns have been voiced by experts regarding the constitutionality of the 15th Amendment to the Bangladeshi Constitution, which revoked the provision for a caretaker government. There are allegations that the Awami League-led alliance's enactment of the 15th Amendment in 2011, through a ‘majoritarian’ approach, weaponised the constitution and disrupted the political consensus. Against the backdrop of these allegations, more than the victory or loss of the parties involved, it is the triumph or subjugation of democracy itself that will be keenly watched for and analysed. A political contest sans opposition stands against the ethos of democracy. It may also be noted that the BNP Chairperson, Khaleda Zia, has been excluded from participating in politics and is effectively confined to house arrest, serving a 17-year prison sentence for two graft charges imposed by a court. Since 2007, her son, Tarique Rahman, has been in self-imposed exile in the UK, avoiding multiple graft and criminal charges. BNP's Secretary General, Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir, and Standing Committee Member, Amir Khasru Mahmud Chowdhury, faced arrests on charges related to violence. Furthermore, numerous opposition activists and officeholders have been detained on allegations of involvement in violent activities. Given the diminished stature of the opposition, it becomes challenging to characterise the current political landscape as truly participatory, representative, and democratic. The popularity, or acceptance to be more precise, of the Hasina government has been thriving on the enviable economic progress that the country has made under her rule. Bangladesh is leaving behind its more dominant neighbours in a range of economic indicators including per capita income and other things. However, it must be clearly stated that economic progress is not a substitute for democratic stability. In the contemporary world, a rising economy makes sense only when accompanied by a robust and reliable democratic setup. Moreover, the flare of economic progress is fast fading. Bangladesh is currently grappling with a series of economic challenges that have prompted concerns both domestically and internationally. The country's foreign exchange reserves, now below USD 20 billion, are not only shrinking but also facing further depletion. Simultaneously, external debt has surged to nearly USD 100 billion, with a significant debt servicing payment of USD 3.56 billion expected in the current fiscal year. This precarious financial situation has triggered downgrades in Bangladesh's sovereign credit rating by prominent rating agencies such as S&P, Moody's, and Fitch. Furthermore, the Bangladeshi currency, Taka, has experienced a substantial depreciation of approximately 28 per cent over the past year, adding to its economic woes. It is important to note that Bangladesh now holds an important geostrategic and economic relevance for the world in general, and India in particular. Castigation by Western countries has pushed it more close to China. These are not good signs for India, which has strong and multifaceted ties with Bangladesh. Sheikh Hasina is most likely to return to power; it will be crucial to see her stance towards geopolitical blocs and countries if she returns to power.