By Jeff Goldman and Len Melisurgo | NJ Advance Media for NJ.com
Parts of New Jersey could start getting lashed with tropical storm-force winds and heavy rain as early as Tuesday morning, even though Hurricane Jose is expected to continue churning hundreds of miles off the coast, forecasters said.
Atlantic, Cape May, Monmouth, Ocean and eastern Burlington counties are under a tropical storm watch because of the possibility that sustained winds of 39 mph or stronger could hit the region as Jose continues moving north. The watch could be upgraded to a warning as the hurricane gets closer.
As of 5 a.m., Jose is 470 miles south-southeast of Atlantic City and moving north at 9 mph, the center said. Currently about 280 miles off the coast of Cape Hatteras, N.C., Jose is expected continue tracking north before turning northeast on Tuesday. Jose's peak winds were blowing at 85 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.
It will likely weaken to a tropical storm Tuesday night or Wednesday.
The National Hurricane Center offers these probabilities that tropical storm-force winds (39 mph or greater) will hit these areas when Jose moves further up the coast:
- 20 to 30 percent percent chance along the Jersey Shore.
- 10 to 20 percent chance in most of the state
- 5 to 10 percent in the northwest corner.
The forecast calls for 25-35 mph winds with gusts of up to 45 along the immediate coast, according to the National Weather Service.
The winds could uproot trees or snap branches. Residents are also advised to secure their property as damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored mobile homes is a concern. Scattered power outages are also a possibility.
This map shows the rainfall totals that are anticipated through Wednesday night. (National Weather Service | Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center)
Rainfall potential
Forecasters say coastal New Jersey will receive between 1 and 2 inches of rain between Monday night and Wednesday, with locally higher amounts possible.
The bigger concern is wind and the possibility of 1-3 feet of storm surge, especially with the high tide on Tuesday evening. Moderate beach erosion might also take place and moderate tidal flooding is possible, especially with the high tide Tuesday evening. Limited flooding could begin as early as Monday night.
Coastal flooding threat from Jose
Hurricane Jose 'spaghetti' model map
"There is also the potential for the storm to shift a bit farther west, and this would bring heavier rain onshore as well. If the heavier rain falls at the time of high tide, it could worsen the coastal flooding issues," according to the forecast.
Hurricane Maria heads toward Caribbean
Hurricane Jose isn't the only storm being closely monitored in the Atlantic hurricane basin. Tropical Storm Maria was upgraded to a hurricane on Sunday and was packing sustained winds of 90 mph Sunday night as it headed in the direction of some of the same Caribbean islands that were pummeled by Hurricane Irma two weeks ago.
As of 5 a.m., Maria is 100 miles east of Martinique and 160 miles south-southeast of Dominica. It's moving west-northwest at 20 mph. Since the hurricane center's last update, a hurricane watch has been issued for Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra.
Maria is forecast to become a major hurricane -- Category 3 or stronger -- as it moves near the Leeward Islands in the Caribbean, the National Hurricane Center said. This hurricane also poses a potential threat to the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.
Hurricane Maria strengthens as East coast tracks future path
Hurricane Maria strengthens
Tropical Storm Lee downgraded
One positive note: Tropical Storm Lee, which was swirling east of Hurricane Maria in the far eastern Atlantic over the weekend, weakened to a tropical depression on Sunday. Its peak winds were about 35 mph as of 5 a.m. Monday and it's expected to weaken even further by this evening.
Jeff Goldman may be reached at [email protected]. Len Melisurgo may be reached at [email protected]. Find NJ.com on Facebook.
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