Breaking down Mackenzie Mgbako's fit at Kansas and Indiana

On Wednesday, five-star Mackenzie Mgbako announced he was down to two schools, Indiana and Kansas, and would be announcing his decision on Friday. The Roselle (NJ) Catholic small forward averaged 16.3 points and 9.2 rebounds on 1.9 threes per game in 16 games this season.

The Jayhawks are currently in the top spot on On3’s Recruiting Prediction Machine (RPM), carrying a 49.0 percent chance of landing Mackenzie Mgbako. The RPM is the industry’s first algorithm and machine learning-based product to predict where athletes will attend college. It factors in machine learning, expert prediction, social sentiment, visits, and historical trends. However, expert predictions are still a big piece of the RPM equation.

With Mgbako’s decision on the horizon, let’s go through both options and take a look at the fit of each program.

Kansas

Kansas has been a big player this offseason, shuffling their roster with a good bit of turnover. They currently have four high schoolers coming in and have added three transfers. They have had six players transfer out since last season ended. None of the players who transferred out averaged 13.0 minutes or more per game. The Jayhawks also lose their top two scorers as Gradey Dick and Jalen Wilson have declared for the NBA Draft. With Thursday at midnight, the last day of the portal being open, we will see if any other movement happens (editor’s note – after this article was completed, word got out that freshman center Ernest Udeh planned to enter)

A look at the last two Jayhawks teams, you see the success Bill Self has had with Christian Braun, Jalen Wilson, Gradey Dick, and Ochai Obaji. These four are wings or tweener-forwards, in the 6-foot-5 to 6-foot-8 range, that experienced success in the system. A look at the current roster construct, you see Kevin McCuller (who is testing the NBA Draft while maintaining college eligibility) and incoming freshman Marcus Adams in the three/four depth chart. There is also KJ Adams, who is more of a four/five that played almost 28 minutes a game last season. That said, the track record of the position and the depth chart are favorable.

Indiana

Indiana had an active off-season as well. They got a big win when point guard Xavier Johnson, who played in 11 games last season, announced he would be returning. The Hoosiers lose their other top four scorers, including All-Big Ten post Trayce Jackson-Davis. A key reserve, 6-foot-5 Tamar Bates, entered the transfer portal along with two others. The Hoosiers are bringing in two freshmen, both guards, and they added three transfers, all fours, and fives.

The current Indiana roster construct allows you to see a favorable depth chart with immediate playing time available. Looking at previous archetypes, the role Miller Kopp played for Mike Woodson would be an interesting starting point, with room alongside returning four Malik Reneau and center Kel’el Ware transferring in. The depth chart currently has sophomore Kaleb Banks as a three/four and Miami transfer Anthony Walker, along with the aforementioned Reneau, as straight fours.

With Indiana working to reconstruct their roster, there is a role for Mgbako to come right in and be a significant factor while he develops. Woodson was an NBA head coach for nine seasons, coaching the likes of Carmelo Anthony and Joe Johnson. There is a conversation of NBA development to be had as well.

Mgbako’s recruitment

Mackenzie Mgbako originally committed to Duke in April of 2022 and signed with the Blue Devils during the early signing period for the 2023 class. A year after committing, in April of 2023, Mgbako de-committed from Duke and re-opened his recruitment.

In the few weeks since his de-commitment, Mgbako took official visits to St. John’s, Indiana, and Kansas. He set a May 12 visit date with Louisville. That visit was canceled, as Mgbako has instead decided to announce his commitment on that date.