"Well, Dan Campbell only won 3 games his first season..."

[Ross12]

Getting sick and tired of hearing people mention Dan Campbell's name in relation to Jerod Mayo, implying that since Dan Campbell only won 3 games his first year and has since turned it around, Jerod can/will do it too.

NEWS FLASH: Dan Campbell is the massive exception to the rule. Dan Campbell is somewhat of a unicorn. There have been many coaches that started out with such seasons like this and went on to do jack ****. Most of them got fired after their first year. Some got fired mid-season.

I went back to 2009 to see how many first-time head coaches ended their seasons with 4 or fewer wins (since that is the max Mayo will achieve). I invite everyone to read below and let me know your thoughts on if this list is full of guys just like Dan Campbell who turned it around after year 1 and got their team to become conference powerhouses in year 2/3.

Year​	Coach​	Team​	First Year Record​
2009​	Jim Schwartz	Lions	2-14
	Steve Spagnuolo	Rams	1-15
	Raheem Morris	Buccaneers	3-13
	Todd Haley	Chiefs	4-12
2011​	Lezlie Frazier	Vikings	3-13
	Pat Shurmur	Browns	4-12
2012​	Dennis Allen	Raiders	4-12
	Mike Mularkey	Jaguars	2-14
2013​	Gus Bradley	Jaguars	4-12
	Rob Chudzinski	Browns	4-12
2014​	Lovie Smith	Buccaneers	2-14
	Jay Gruden	Commanders	4-12
	Ken Whisenhunt	Titans	2-14
2016​	Chip Kelly	49ers	2-14
2018​	Steve Wilks	Cardinals	3-13
2019​	Zac Taylor	Bengals	2-14
2021​	Dan Campbell	Lions	3-13-1
	Urban Meyer	Jaguars	2-11
	Robert Saleh	Jets	4-13
	David Culley	Texans	4-13
2022​	Nathaniel Hackett	Broncos	4-11
	Matt Eberflus	Bears	3-14
2023​	Jonathon Gannon	Cardinals	4-13

 

[sb1]

Yeah most of those maybe all are not HC material. Gannon is TBD. Some are more successful as co-ordinators than others.

That logic drove me nuts when it came to Pats QBs. Like we were supposed to think Mallett, Stidham, Zappe, Cunningham and now Milton are stars to be because hey Tom Brady was a 6th round pick. Just lol.

 

[Ian]

Getting sick and tired of hearing people mention Dan Campbell's name in relation to Jerod Mayo, implying that since Dan Campbell only won 3 games his first year and has since turned it around, Jerod can/will do it too.

NEWS FLASH: Dan Campbell is the massive exception to the rule. Dan Campbell is somewhat of a unicorn. There have been many coaches that started out with such seasons like this and went on to do jack ****. Most of them got fired after their first year. Some got fired mid-season.

I went back to 2009 to see how many first-time head coaches ended their seasons with 4 or fewer wins (since that is the max Mayo will achieve). I invite everyone to read below and let me know your thoughts on if this list is full of guys just like Dan Campbell who turned it around after year 1 and got their team to become conference powerhouses in year 2/3.

Year​	Coach​	Team​	First Year Record​
2009​	Jim Schwartz	Lions	2-14
	Steve Spagnuolo	Rams	1-15
	Raheem Morris	Buccaneers	3-13
	Todd Haley	Chiefs	4-12
2011​	Lezlie Frazier	Vikings	3-13
	Pat Shurmur	Browns	4-12
2012​	Dennis Allen	Raiders	4-12
	Mike Mularkey	Jaguars	2-14
2013​	Gus Bradley	Jaguars	4-12
	Rob Chudzinski	Browns	4-12
2014​	Lovie Smith	Buccaneers	2-14
	Jay Gruden	Commanders	4-12
	Ken Whisenhunt	Titans	2-14
2016​	Chip Kelly	49ers	2-14
2018​	Steve Wilks	Cardinals	3-13
2019​	Zac Taylor	Bengals	2-14
2021​	Dan Campbell	Lions	3-13-1
	Urban Meyer	Jaguars	2-11
	Robert Saleh	Jets	4-13
	David Culley	Texans	4-13
2022​	Nathaniel Hackett	Broncos	4-11
	Matt Eberflus	Bears	3-14
2023​	Jonathon Gannon	Cardinals	4-13

I would say Zac Taylor - although he's kind of interesting. That team is way too good to be as bad as they've been, and have absolutely underperformed. I also think Robert Saleh is a better coach than he showed and simply couldn't overcome the disaster that is that organization.

But - to your point - those are only two additional names out of the over 20 you listed, and only one of the two has really had any actual success.

 

[Ross12]

I would say Zac Taylor - although he's kind of interesting. That team is way too good to be as bad as they've been, and have absolutely underperformed. I also think Robert Saleh is a better coach than he showed and simply couldn't overcome the disaster that is that organization.

But - to your point - those are only two additional names out of the over 20 you listed, and only one of the two has really had any actual success.

They're also both fairly recent hires so there's some recency bias. Though hard to deny Zac Taylor's Super Bowl berth.

That said, yeah, 2 coaches out of 23 is not a great rate. And in both cases it was obvious they had something going. For Dan Campbell, they were losing games but they had a clear identity and finished the season 3-3. For Zac Taylor, they went 2-14 only because Burrow was out for about half the year, but it was obvious he was "the guy". They drafted Chase thanks to that high pick and boom, instant Super Bowl the next season.

I don't really see anything like that from Mayo at all.

 

[Pape]

Thing that is missing from the Dan Campbell comparison - the 11 years of coaching experience he had before becoming a Head Coach... in lieu of holding a coordinator position, he spent 5 years working under Sean Payton in New Orleans as the assistant head coach...

Compare that, and any of the others to Mayos history as a coach... It does not take a genius to figure out that only a small percentage of guys who get a HC job become successful... and only one with limited experience like Mayo has succeeded.

It does not bode well for the next season

 

[Ross12]

Thing that is missing from the Dan Campbell comparison - the 11 years of coaching experience he had before becoming a Head Coach... in lieu of holding a coordinator position, he spent 5 years working under Sean Payton in New Orleans as the assistant head coach...

Yeah, there's a lot of other nuance that goes into all of this. How many of the listed 23 coaches had zero offensive coordinator/defensive coordinator/special teams coordinator/college head coach/interim NFL head coach experience before becoming head coach?

 

[Pape]

Yeah, there's a lot of other nuance that goes into all of this. How many of the listed 23 coaches had zero offensive coordinator/defensive coordinator/special teams coordinator/college head coach/interim NFL head coach experience before becoming head coach?

DeMeco Ryans is the only guy who has succeeded in a similar position as Mayo that I can find. Though, he did spend two years as a coordinator in SF before taking over the Houston HC role. Mayo didnt even have that on his resume

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

The other thing missing from the Dan Campbell discussion is SOS. The Patriots have had one of the weakest SOSs in the NFL, and have still ended up 3 - 13. If we had played a hard schedule, we would have 1 or 2 wins. This coaching staff is atrocious.

 

[lancerman]

Not that I think Mayo is the answer or anything but:

Bill Belichick: went 5-11 year one here and had 5 losing seasons out of 6 before winning his first ring.

Bill Walsh: went 2-14 his first year in San Fran

Chuck Noll: went 1-13 his first year in Pittsburgh

Tom Landry: went 0-11 when he took over the Cowboys and then went 4-9 his first full year as coach. In fact he didn't have a winning season until year 7.

Andy Reid went 5-11 his first year as HC of the Eagles.

Tom Coughlin went 4-12 his first year on the Giants

Bill Parcells went 3-12-1 his first year on the Giants

Jimmy Johnson went 1-15 his first year in Dallas

Those are the majority of multi time winning SB coaches in league history. All your list really does is show that most coaches end up failing in general. The majority that do succeed do tend to have really rough first years. Guys like Lombardi and Shula are the exceptions more than the rule.

That's not me making an estimation on Mayo one way or the other. But you do have to consider that very rarely is the first year the best case scenario to judge any new coach under.

 

[PatsFan2]

DeMeco Ryans is the only guy who has succeeded in a similar position as Mayo that I can find. Though, he did spend two years as a coordinator in SF before taking over the Houston HC role. Mayo didnt even have that on his resume

And that's the point Mayo was Never a Coordinator I wouldn't bet on his Route succeeding with anybody's money.

 

[TomPatriot]

Dan Campbell steadied a sinking ship. His team played much better at the end than at the beginning. What has Jerod Mayo done?

I predict they’re going to keep Mayo and fire at least one position coach and at least one coordinator. Unarmed joy!

 

[Ian]

Yeah, there's a lot of other nuance that goes into all of this. How many of the listed 23 coaches had zero offensive coordinator/defensive coordinator/special teams coordinator/college head coach/interim NFL head coach experience before becoming head coach?

The worst part about this is it isn't even coaching that's hurt him. It's the unneeded shooting himself in the foot in terms of what he's said to the media, which has obviously become a running joke here. Any other coach, I think the outrage would be far worse and the only reason it's not is because he's at least a former player from here.

He's said so many horrific things and created so many unneeded issues that it shows he's immature and there's really no coming back from it, other than time - which would have to happen after he quietly works as an assistant/coordinator elsewhere. No one is going to want to come work here knowing what has transpired and if they're unaware, their agent is sure to advise them and will have likely done the research.

This is an all-or-nothing situation. You either completely clean house, or you run it back and hope better personnel fixes it. And I just don't feel like the latter can possibly be an option because of how badly he's handled himself.

 

[Joey007]

Not that I think Mayo is the answer or anything but:

Bill Belichick: went 5-11 year one here and had 5 losing seasons out of 6 before winning his first ring.

Bill Walsh: went 2-14 his first year in San Fran

Chuck Noll: went 1-13 his first year in Pittsburgh

Tom Landry: went 0-11 when he took over the Cowboys and then went 4-9 his first full year as coach. In fact he didn't have a winning season until year 7.

Andy Reid went 5-11 his first year as HC of the Eagles.

Tom Coughlin went 4-12 his first year on the Giants

Bill Parcells went 3-12-1 his first year on the Giants

Jimmy Johnson went 1-15 his first year in Dallas

Those are the majority of multi time winning SB coaches in league history. All your list really does is show that most coaches end up failing in general. The majority that do succeed do tend to have really rough first years. Guys like Lombardi and Shula are the exceptions more than the rule.

That's not me making an estimation on Mayo one way or the other. But you do have to consider that very rarely is the first year the best case scenario to judge any new coach under.

None of your examples are within the last 20 years. Different league now.

 

[lancerman]

The worst part about this is it isn't even coaching that's hurt him. It's the unneeded shooting himself in the foot in terms of what he's said to the media, which has obviously become a running joke here. Any other coach, I think the outrage would be far worse and the only reason it's not is because he's at least a former player from here.

He's said so many horrific things and created so many unneeded issues that it shows he's immature and there's really no coming back from it, other than time - which would have to happen after he quietly works as an assistant/coordinator elsewhere. No one is going to want to come work here knowing what has transpired and if they're unaware, their agent is sure to advise them and will have likely done the research.

This is an all-or-nothing situation. You either completely clean house, or you run it back and hope better personnel fixes it. And I just don't feel like the latter can possibly be an option because of how badly he's handled himself.

Yup. The weird thing with Mayo is that if he gets fired, it's going to be more about him talking himself out of the job than the actual on field product. Most people in his position would get a full mulligan because of the talent level and what the team was last year. But he draws more attention to himself and makes people question every single thing he's done and he still hasn't gotten it through his head to just shut up and stop making unforced errors.

 

[NE_Zealot]

Lions also had many years to stockpile high draft picks and build an insane OLine and get proven weapons like St. Brown, LaPorta and J Gibbs. They also have outstanding coordinators and hit on a lot of their draft picks (see names above). Campbell had a much better support system. That’s defending Mayo a little bit but he still isn’t the right fit as HC.

 

[lancerman]

None of your examples are within the last 20 years. Different league now.

Andy Reid literally won the last two Super Bowls. You have McVay, then Arians. Then you go back to Reid AND Bill Belichick winning on my list. Then you have

The reality is that most HC's that inherit a bad situation will have a bad first year. The record this season is simply not shocking. Dan Campbell is an exception to the rule because every single HC that succeeds is an exception to the rule. Most coaches that debut with a winning record will end up failing longterm.

There's also the aspect that the modern league just isn't patient so very few HC's last long anyways. Nobody has the desire to wait 7 years for someone like Landry to get it together.

 

[PatsFan2]

Not that I think Mayo is the answer or anything but:

Bill Belichick: went 5-11 year one here and had 5 losing seasons out of 6 before winning his first ring.

Bill Walsh: went 2-14 his first year in San Fran

Chuck Noll: went 1-13 his first year in Pittsburgh

Tom Landry: went 0-11 when he took over the Cowboys and then went 4-9 his first full year as coach. In fact he didn't have a winning season until year 7.

Andy Reid went 5-11 his first year as HC of the Eagles.

Tom Coughlin went 4-12 his first year on the Giants

Bill Parcells went 3-12-1 his first year on the Giants

Jimmy Johnson went 1-15 his first year in Dallas

Those are the majority of multi time winning SB coaches in league history. All your list really does is show that most coaches end up failing in general. The majority that do succeed do tend to have really rough first years. Guys like Lombardi and Shula are the exceptions more than the rule.

That's not me making an estimation on Mayo one way or the other. But you do have to consider that very rarely is the first year the best case scenario to judge any new coach under.

Mayo is a horrible exception.

 

[Real fan 02]

Getting sick and tired of hearing people mention Dan Campbell's name in relation to Jerod Mayo, implying that since Dan Campbell only won 3 games his first year and has since turned it around, Jerod can/will do it too.

NEWS FLASH: Dan Campbell is the massive exception to the rule. Dan Campbell is somewhat of a unicorn. There have been many coaches that started out with such seasons like this and went on to do jack ****. Most of them got fired after their first year. Some got fired mid-season.

I went back to 2009 to see how many first-time head coaches ended their seasons with 4 or fewer wins (since that is the max Mayo will achieve). I invite everyone to read below and let me know your thoughts on if this list is full of guys just like Dan Campbell who turned it around after year 1 and got their team to become conference powerhouses in year 2/3.

Year​	Coach​	Team​	First Year Record​
2009​	Jim Schwartz	Lions	2-14
	Steve Spagnuolo	Rams	1-15
	Raheem Morris	Buccaneers	3-13
	Todd Haley	Chiefs	4-12
2011​	Lezlie Frazier	Vikings	3-13
	Pat Shurmur	Browns	4-12
2012​	Dennis Allen	Raiders	4-12
	Mike Mularkey	Jaguars	2-14
2013​	Gus Bradley	Jaguars	4-12
	Rob Chudzinski	Browns	4-12
2014​	Lovie Smith	Buccaneers	2-14
	Jay Gruden	Commanders	4-12
	Ken Whisenhunt	Titans	2-14
2016​	Chip Kelly	49ers	2-14
2018​	Steve Wilks	Cardinals	3-13
2019​	Zac Taylor	Bengals	2-14
2021​	Dan Campbell	Lions	3-13-1
	Urban Meyer	Jaguars	2-11
	Robert Saleh	Jets	4-13
	David Culley	Texans	4-13
2022​	Nathaniel Hackett	Broncos	4-11
	Matt Eberflus	Bears	3-14
2023​	Jonathon Gannon	Cardinals	4-13

Thank you for posting this Ross. Another thing of note. People don't realize Campbell had an array of position coaching jobs, and was actually a HC when on an interim basis then an assistant coach in NO. He had far more experience for an ex player than Mayo has. Mayo should have taken the available DC positions that were available to him then went into the HC realm.

 

[Ross12]

DeMeco Ryans is the only guy who has succeeded in a similar position as Mayo that I can find. Though, he did spend two years as a coordinator in SF before taking over the Houston HC role. Mayo didnt even have that on his resume

Yeah really there is no comparison. Ryans was also an inside LB coach like Mayo for a few years, but then he actually became a DC for the 49ers in 2021 for two years. And his defenses were top-notch; I think they had the #1 overall defense in 2022. He was then made the HC of the Texans in 2023, and the Texans adopted his defensive identity right away. Mayo has nothing remotely close to that on his resume.

 

[lancerman]

Mayo is a horrible exception.

He's literally not an exception. Most coaches end up failing and most coaches end up having issues their first year.

That's just reality.

Every coach I listed was a multi time Super Bowl winning HC. Vince Lombardi, Don Shula, Tom Flores and Joe Gibbs are the only others and they are the ones that started decent. That's 4 guys. I listed 8 who had horrible starts.

The exception for multi SB winning coaches is to start out with a good record and a decent first year. The rule is growing pains.

Again, that doesn't mean Mayo is that guy or anything. But it's a pretty dumb metric when I can go by the coaches who had the highest level of success and show they would fit on the OP's list. The reality is most coaches just fail.