Electric Vehicle Market Status - Update - Manufacturer Commitments to Future Electric Mobility in the U.S. and Worldwide - MJ Bradley & ...
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Electric Vehicle Market Status
- Update
Manufacturer Commitments to Future Electric Mobility in the U.S.
and Worldwide
January 2021
Contents
Acknowledgements ................................................................................................................................. 2
Executive Summary ................................................................................................................................ 3
Drivers of Global EV Growth – Global Goals to Accelerate Sales ............................................................ 8
Policy Drivers of U.S. Electric Vehicle Growth ..................................................................................... 11
Manufacturer Commitments .................................................................................................................. 14
Job Creation .......................................................................................................................................... 18
Charging Network Investments.............................................................................................................. 21
Commercial Fleet Electrification Commitments ..................................................................................... 23
Sales Forecast ........................................................................................................................................ 25
Battery Pack Cost Projections and EV Price Parity ................................................................................ 27
Appendix – Manufacturer Commitments & Announced BEV/PHEV Models for Light-Duty Vehicles ... 30
Model Announcements – Light-Duty Vehicles ...................................................................................... 32
Model Announcements – Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles ............................................................... 37
References............................................................................................................................................. 41
1
Acknowledgements Lead Authors: Dana Lowell and Alissa Huntington This paper summarizes the current status, and projected growth, of the U.S. electric vehicle (EV) industry over the next five to ten years. Key topics addressed include drivers of U.S. and global EV growth, auto manufacturer investments in EV development and in building a robust charging network for drivers, announced new EV model introductions, projected EV sales, projected battery pack costs and advancements, and projected date of EV “price parity” with internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. The report also addresses the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on EV sales. This report was developed by M.J. Bradley & Associates for the Environmental Defense Fund (EDF). About M.J. Bradley & Associates MJB&A, an ERM Group company, provides strategic consulting services to address energy and environmental issues for the private, public, and non-profit sectors. MJB&A creates value and addresses risks with a comprehensive approach to strategy and implementation, ensuring clients have timely access to information and the tools to use it to their advantage. Our approach fuses private sector strategy with public policy in air quality, energy, climate change, environmental markets, energy efficiency, renewable energy, transportation, and advanced technologies. Our international client base includes electric and natural gas utilities, major transportation fleet operators, investors, clean technology firms, environmental groups and government agencies. Our seasoned team brings a multi-sector perspective, informed expertise, and creative solutions to each client, capitalizing on extensive experience in energy markets, environmental policy, law, engineering, economics and business. For more information we encourage you to visit our website, www.mjbradley.com. © M.J. Bradley & Associates, an ERM Group company, 2021 For questions or comments, please contact: Dana Lowell Senior Vice President M.J. Bradley & Associates, LLC +1 978 369 5533 [email protected] This report is available at www.mjbradley.com. 2
Executive Summary
This paper is the third update to an initial report released in May 2019* that summarizes the current status,
and projected growth, of the U.S. electric vehicle (EV) industry over the next five to ten years. Key topics
addressed include drivers of U.S. and global EV growth, auto manufacturer investments in EV development
and in building a robust charging network for drivers, announced new EV model introductions, projected
EV sales, projected battery pack costs and advancements, and projected date of EV “price parity” with
internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. The report also addresses the effects of the COVID-19
pandemic on EV sales.
The data summarized here are based on formal statements and announcements by auto manufacturers, as
well as analysis by the automotive press and by financial and market analysis firms that regularly cover the
auto industry.
Transportation is currently the United States’ largest source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and
transportation-sector electrification is widely recognized as one of the best strategies for significantly
reducing these emissions. The data summarized here support the conclusion that the automotive industry
has embraced the vision of electrified mobility and that the EV market is on the cusp of a period of
significant growth. Numerous manufacturers have publicly signaled their commitment to a future of
electric vehicles. For examples, in their 2017-2018 sustainability report Ford stated “we aim to stay ahead
of the curve in terms of electric innovation, to create cleaner, more efficient vehicles and to deliver
affordable electric vehicles at scale.”1 Volkswagen has said “the future of personal transportation is
electric, and for Volkswagen, building the vehicles of the future means expanding in the United States.”2
Most recently, General Motors’ (GM) CEO Marry Barra wrote a letter to 11 environmental non-profit
leaders announcing it would end its support for the Trump administration’s rollback of California’s stricter
vehicle emissions regulations and join the “ambitious electrification goals” of President Biden and
California: “President-elect Biden recently said, ‘I believe that we can own the 21st century car market again
by moving to electric vehicles.’ We at General Motors couldn't agree more. We are inspired by the
President-elect's Build Back Better plan.”3
These manufacturer commitments reflect heightened efforts to address the major causes of climate change,
by governments world-wide, including adoption of more stringent vehicle emission standards and EV sales
targets. It is likely that these government actions – and anticipation of even more stringent future standards
– have been a significant driver of automaker EV commitments and investment plans, supported by
dramatic reductions in the cost of batteries, which have made transportation electrification more affordable.
*
The first update was released in August 2019 and the second in September 2020.
3
While this update includes a discussion of medium- and heavy-duty vehicle electrification, the primary
focus covers light-duty vehicles unless otherwise noted. Major findings of this report include:
Carmakers worldwide will spend more than $257 billion Automakers will
GM through 2030 developing new electrified models. Eight spend $257 billion
VW manufacturers have already announced plans to spend worldwide on light-
$ Ford
more than $22 billion to open new or renovated plants in duty vehicle
the U.S. to build EVs in five different states. These electrification
Manufacturer plants will directly employ almost 24,000 workers and through 2030 with
Commitments contribute to additional job creation for suppliers and more than $22
local businesses. Most recently, GM announced it would billion on domestic
invest $2.2 billion – its largest investment in a manufacturing
manufacturing facility to date – to repurpose the Detroit
Factory ZERO assembly center as its “flagship assembly plant in [its] journey to an
all-electric future.” As 70 percent of plug-in EVs driven on U.S. roads in 2019 were
assembled domestically, these manufacturing plant investments highlight continued
cultivation of a strong EV workforce and robust market.
Between 2021 and 2023, the number of 60 EV models → 76 EV models
battery electric (BEV) and plug-in hybrid in 2021 in 2023
(PHEV) passenger vehicle models
available to U.S. consumers will increase from 60 to 76.* The range of vehicle types
available will also increase to include sport utility vehicles (SUV), cross-overs, and
Model pick-up trucks. 2020 brought improvements in EV range, with the median EPA
Availability estimated range exceeding 250 miles for MY2020 EVs and the introduction of the
first EV to achieve a range of more than 400 miles; the Cadillac Lyric and Lucid
Motors Air have received attention as models that tout 300 and 517 miles of
expected EPA-rated range, respectively.
In 2021 there will be at least four EV models available for under $30,000 (MSRP)
$ with a driving range of up to 250 miles. There will be even more models with a net
Affordability cost of under $30,000 when current federal, state, and local incentives are factored
in.
Major auto manufacturers are embracing Volvo anticipates
electrification, as evidenced by the increased number battery electric
and variety of electrified models offered, as well as vehicles will make up
EV Sales commitments to brand electrification and sales targets. half its sales by 2025
Projections For example, Volvo anticipates BEVs will make up
half of its sales in 2025 and is encouraging this transition by including an electric
motor in every vehicle it launches from 2019 onwards.
*
Vehicles included in this figure are those available in the U.S. with MSRP below $100,000. The number of available vehicle
models will be greater when considering global EV announcements and models that cost more than $100,000.
4In addition to expanding their portfolios to include a GM and EVgo
greater range of electric and electrified models, are partnering to
manufacturers like Nissan and Volvo have acquired stakes bring 2,700 new
Charging in companies that specialize in charging and battery fast charge
Station technology while Audi, Ford, Mercedes-Benz, and plugs by 2025
Investment Volkswagen have announced they will each invest billions
of dollars in electrification strategies. Manufacturers are increasingly exploring how
to expand the charging network for their drivers, demonstrated through the EVgo and
GM partnership to install 2,700 new fast charge plugs by 2025.
Electric Many brands are developing platforms that will exclusively cater to EVs, like GM
positioning Cadillac as its lead EV brand with the BEV3 platform. By establishing
EV-Specific unique, EV-dedicated brands, automakers are sending a clear signal that EVs will
Brand make up a larger share of their portfolio and reducing emissions will be a focus
Development going forward. EV-only brands like Rivian and Lordstown are gaining momentum
and Tesla has dominated U.S. EV sales to date.
Electrification of medium- and heavy-duty commercial fleet vehicles is gaining
traction, in part due to fleet electrification targets by major companies. These
commitments send market signals that large entities, like Amazon, are seeking
Fleet
electric alternatives for their fleets, as components of their sustainability initiatives.
Electrification
These companies are planning to convert a range of light-, medium- and heavy-duty
vehicle types to EVs, including delivery vans, commuter buses, transit buses,
garbage trucks, and more. Today (2021), there are 44 medium-duty electrified
models, 24 heavy-duty models, and over 40 bus models offered across a range of
vehicle vocations, and this number will continue to grow in coming years. Coupled
with private sector commitments, states are signaling their interest in medium- and
heavy-duty electrification through policies such as California’s Advanced Clean
Truck Regulation as well as multi-state collaborations like the fifteen jurisdiction
Medium- and Heavy-Duty Zero Emission Vehicle Memorandum of Understanding.
The cost of battery packs has fallen dramatically, from over
$1,000/kilowatt-hour (kWh) in 2010 to approximately Battery pack
$137/kWh in 2020. Most analysts project that battery pack prices could fall
Declining
prices will continue to fall, reaching $100/kWh between to $100/kWh by
Battery the mid-2020s
Costs 2023 and 2025 and $61-72/kWh by 2030. Auto
manufacturers have endorsed these projections.
Many industry experts believe that passenger EVs will
reach cost parity with ICE vehicles (based on total cost EV life-time cost
=
of ownership without considering any tax incentives) parity with internal
Price Parity when battery pack prices fall below $100/kWh, resulting combustion engine
in lower up-front purchase prices. While some industry vehicles will occur in
experts believe price parity for BEVs with smaller 2025 or earlier due to
battery packs has already been realized, most believe falling battery prices
wide-spread price parity will happen around 2025.
5The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic persist into 2021. As the global economy
ground to a halt in the spring of 2020, many automakers that had anticipated near-
term launches of new electric models – including Rivian (R1S and R1T), GM
(Hummer), Byton (M-Byte and K-Byte), and Workhorse (W-15) – revised their
Effects of timelines, halted operations, and furloughed workers. However, as the year
COVID-19 progressed, automakers like Chevrolet and Audi saw increases in EV sales: in 2020,
Chevy Bolt sales increased 26 percent and Audi e-tron sales increased 34 percent
compared to 2019. Although manufacturers like Nissan and Hyundai have both seen
overall declines in total vehicle sales in the U.S., Nissan had its best Q4 since 2016
for sales of the all-electric Leaf.
In the end, 2020 was a year that proved to be stronger than ever for automaker
commitments to furthering electrification globally: GM increased its pre-pandemic
electrification financial commitment by $7 billion and increased planned EV model
introduction through 2025 by 10; Ford announced it would boost production of the
all-electric F-150 by 50 percent compared to original plans due to “strong early
interest”; and VW revised its expectations for cumulative global sales by 2030
(increasing projections by four million vehicles), committed to developing 70 BEV
models by 2030, and annonced $41 billion in capital spending dedicated to EVs
through 2025.
6Notable Updates Since the September 2020 Report
• U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced a target to end the sale of new gasoline and
diesel cars and vans by 2030 and hybrid cars and vans by 2035.
• China outlined a plan that by 2035, all new cars sold will be “eco-friendly”: 50 percent will
need to be BEV, PHEV, or fuel cell, and 50 percent will be hybrids.
• Two states in the U.S. – California and Massachusetts – committed to ensuring all new
vehicle sales are zero-emitting by 2035. New York and New Jersey have considered action
as well.
• President Biden’s climate agenda includes commitments to help ensure 100 percent of new
light- and medium- duty vehicles would be zero emitting. It also includes a plan to invest in
half a million EV charging stations (while also supporting workforce development programs),
convert all 500,000 U.S. school buses to zero emission vehicles by 2030, and enacting more
stringent fuel economy standards.
• Two industry coalitions formed to advocate for policies that would encourage EV growth –
the Zero Emission Transportation Association (ZETA) and the Electrification Coalition
Business Council (ECBE).
• Collectively automakers will invest $247 billion globally on electrification by 2030, up from
$185 billion announced in the last report. Commitments from Daimler, GM, and VW
contributed to this increase.
• GM made a host of EV announcements in recent months: increasing its EV and autonomous
vehicle investment to $27 billion at the end of 2020, $7 billion more than its prior
commitment made six months earlier; increasing its projected models available by 2030 to
30, up from 20 models pre-pandemic; committing $2.2 billion – its largest investment in a
manufacturing facility to date – to repurpose the Detroit Factory ZERO assembly center as its
“flagship assembly plant in [its] journey to an all-electric future”; withdrawing its support for
the Trump administration’s rollback of national vehicle emissions standards; and launching
BrightDrop, its new business that will offer an integrated ecosystem of electric products,
software, and services for the first to last mile.
• Recent fleet commitments include Edison Electric Institute (EEI) member companies (i.e.,
investor-owned utilities) committing to collectively electrify more than one-third of their total
fleet vehicles, including two-thirds of fleet passenger vehicles.
• Uber announced it will roll out “Uber Green” in 1,400 North American cities and towns in
2021, expanding access to EV transportation for its riders. It will also aid drivers in the
transition to electric through a range of partnerships.
• Battery pack prices dropped to $137 in 2020 compared to $156 in 2019, according to
BloombergNEF.
• QuantumScape, which received a $200 million investment from VW in June 2020, is
developing high-energy density solid-state batteries that could enable up to 80 percent longer
range compared to today’s lithium-ion batteries, reach 80 percent charging capacity in 15
minutes, and operate effectively at -30 degrees Celsius.
• Automakers are also realizing gains in proprietary battery technology. GM estimates that its
Ultium pack will cost 60 percent less than today’s packs with twice the energy density and
predicts it will allow for a maximum range of 450 miles. During its 2020 Battery Day Event,
Tesla announced it will be manufacturing “tabless” batteries that will be six times more
powerful and increase range by 16 percent.
7Drivers of Global EV Growth – Global Goals to Accelerate Sales
Around the world, countries have announced target dates by which they would allow the sale of only zero-
emission vehicles (ZEVs) to accelerate the transition to a cleaner, electrified transportation sector. European
countries are leading this movement with Denmark, Ireland, France, the Netherlands, Norway, and the U.K.
aiming to only sell ZEVs in the coming years (Figure 14). As 2018 concluded, Norway made history as the
first country where EVs made up half of all passenger vehicle sales in a year (continuing to climb to 54 percent
in 2020), thanks to a host of incentives: no import tax, no sales tax, no vehicle registration fees, free access to
toll roads, and free parking in some city areas.5 In addition to Norway’s EV integration model, the European
Union (E.U.) as a whole adopted more stringent fuel standards for cars and light vans for 2020 and beyond:
as part of a clean mobility package, the standard will require emissions in 2030 to be 37.5 percent lower for
new cars and 31 percent lower for new vans compared to 2021 levels.6 To capitalize on the momentum of
standards for light-duty vehicles, the European Parliament and the European Council then turned their
attention to setting the first-ever E.U. standards to reduce pollution from trucks.7 A Denmark-led coalition of
11 E.U. member states, however, believes the bloc can – and must – go further, calling for a collective target
to solely sell clean vehicles by 2040.8 In November 2020, U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced a
“Ten Point Plan for a Green Industrial Revolution for 250,000 Jobs,” consisting of a variety of clean energy
technology targets, one of which would be to only sell ZEVs by 2035.9
While Europe may lead in the sheer number of country commitments, India and China’s targets could have
the most substantial impacts: if the two countries meet their targets to only sell ZEVs by 2030 and 2040,
respectively, around 3.3. billion people, or 43 percent of the world’s population, would be live in countries
that rely exclusively on the sale of new ZEVs after 2040.10 To prepare for this goal, China aims to sell 7
million “new-energy vehicles” annually by 2025, amounting to approximately 20 percent of its total auto
market.11 Additionally, in October 2020 China outlined a plan that by 2035, all new cars sold will be “eco-
friendly”: 50 percent will need to be BEV, PHEV, or fuel cell, and 50 percent will be hybrids.12
In 2020, two states in the U.S. committed to ensuring that 100 percent of new vehicles sold are zero-emitting
by 2035. First, in September, California Governor Gavin Newsom issued an executive order requiring sales
of all new passenger vehicles to be zero-emission by 2035.13 Further cementing this commitment, Governor
Newsom’s proposed 2021 budget includes $1.5 billion – of $4.5 billion total – for ZEVs and supporting
infrastructure.14 Then, days before the end of the year, Governor Charlie Baker committed Massachusetts to
the same target, affirmed in the Clean Energy and Climate Plan for 2030: “[California’s Advanced Clean
Cars II (ACC II)] will require ZEV sales to ramp up to 100 percent of new LDV sales by 2035. Once
finalized, MassDEP will adopt and implement these new ACC II regulations” (see the Policy Drivers of U.S.
Electric Vehicle Growth section for greater detail on ACC II).15 New York and New Jersey are both
considering a similar path as well but have not yet taken legislative action.16
Globally, many cities are pledging deep decarbonization efforts as well. The mayors of the Climate Mayors
Electric Vehicle Purchasing Collaborative – a pledge signed by more than 225 cities and counties across the
U.S. that focuses on public fleet electrification – announced they would collectively buy more than 3,800 EVs
before the end of 2021 for local government fleets; Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti said of the initiative, “by
pooling our purchasing power, Climate Mayors are sending a powerful message to the global car market: if
you build electric vehicles, we will buy them.”17 Another coalition, the C40 Fossil Fuel Streets Declaration,
commits the 35 signatories to replacing their cities’ fossil fuel transit buses with electric alternatives by 2025
and to achieving zero-emissions in designated areas by 2030.18 Major international cities are going one step
further by committing to ban diesel vehicles: Rome by 2024 (in the city center); Athens, Madrid, Mexico City,
and Paris following the year after; and Brussels and Amsterdam by 2030. 19 Los Angeles aims to increase the
number of electric and zero emission vehicles operating in the city to 25 percent of all vehicles in 2025 and
then to 100 percent by 2050. As indicated by recent commitments to shift to lower emitting vehicles, a
growing list of countries and cities are anticipating and encouraging a future supported by electrified
transportation.
8Figure 1 Timeline of Global Targets to Achieve All-ZEV Sales
Targets reflect those that are accompanied by official policy document, like Climate Change Action plans and executive orders. Discussions of targets that have not yet been
accompanied by policy documents or legislation (e.g., Egypt, Germany, Portugal, New Jersey, New York, Sri Lanka, Taiwan) are not included. If a country has set multiple targets,
the greatest scope is included (e.g., the U.K. and Denmark’s goals include a separate timeline for diesel and gasoline vehicles [2030] and hybrid vehicles [2035]).
9To meet these needs, auto manufacturers have announced plans to substantially increase availability of
future EV models worldwide. As Figure 2 shows, auto makers have announced plans to offer more than 770
EV models world-wide by 2030, more than three times the number of models currently available.
Figure 2 Global Automaker Electric Vehicle Model Commitments
800
700
Number of Available Models
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
See Figure 1 in Appendix for announcements used. Brand announcements considered include Audi, Bentley, BMW, Daimler,
FCA, Ford, GM, Hyundai, Kia, Mercedes, Nissan, Toyota, and VW.
10Policy Drivers of U.S. Electric Vehicle Growth
As countries around the world individually and collectively encourage the shift to EVs, the ZEV Alliance
states are leading the transition within the United States. In 2013, six Northeast/Mid-Atlantic states (CT, MA,
MD, NY, RI, and VT) and two Pacific coast states (CA and OR) joined in a Light-Duty Zero Emission Vehicle
Memorandum of Understanding (LD ZEV MOU) to enact policies that will ensure the deployment of 3.3
million light-duty ZEVs by 2025.20 These eight states – along with New Jersey and Maine, who joined in
2018 and 2019, respectively – collaborated to produce the ZEV Task Force Multi-State ZEV Action Plan 2018-
2021 and also founded the International ZEV Alliance, a global initiative between 16 North American and
European national and subnational governments to accelerate the global transition to ZEVs.21 The Task Force
underscores that in the member states, light-duty passenger vehicles are the single largest contributor to GHG
emissions and a significant source of local pollutants that contribute to adverse public health effects. For that
reason, “transportation electrification is essential to achieving near- and long-term state GHG reduction goals
and effectively combating climate change.”22
Following the successful collaboration in 2013 that brought forth the LD ZEV MOU, fifteen states and the
District of Columbia turned their attention to medium- and heavy-duty (M/HD) vehicles, signing a M/HD
ZEV MOU in July 2020 with the goal of ensuring that 100 percent of all new M/HD vehicle sales in their
jurisdictions be ZEVs by 2050, with an interim target of 30 percent by 2030. 23 This commitment will help
develop standards and regulations, deploy infrastructure, and drive investment in the sector. A few weeks
prior to announcing participation in the multi-state collaborative, California adopted the Advanced Clean
Trucks (ACT) Regulation, “the first ever in the world effort to mandate the construction and deployment of
zero-emission vehicles in the heavy-duty sector”; under this regulation, by 2045 every new truck sold in
California will be zero-emission.24 To inform ongoing development of M/HD vehicle regulation, incentives,
and programs across the state, the ACT’s Large Entity Reporting Rule requires that large fleets owners and
government agencies provide detailed data on their fleet composition and activity in 2021 (one-time
requirement). Finally, the ACT will be paired with the ZEV Fleet Rule, which will provide regulation of
public and private fleets, new mobility fleets, large employer fleets, rental fleets, and delivery fleets and will
be developed in 2022. Both rules will take effect in 2024.
All the ZEV Alliance states have adopted the new car emission standards enacted by the California Air
Resource Board (ARB) in lieu of federal standards enacted by the EPA. These ARB standards include a ZEV
standard, which requires that ZEVs must make up a certain percentage of each manufacturer’s annual new car
sales in each state. Initially the ZEV standard included a “travel provision” that allowed automakers to receive
credits in all other ZEV states for vehicles sold in California. This encouraged auto manufacturers to target
EV sales to California. In 2018, ARB removed the travel provision, which could lead to increased model
availability and sales throughout the ZEV Alliance states. According to an analysis by the International
Council on Clean Transportation, “states that adopt California’s Zero Emission Vehicle regulation catalyze
the market, spurring automaker marketing and expanded model availability.”25 This is reflected in the fact
that ten states that have adopted the ZEV regulation were collectively responsible for almost 60 percent of
BEV and PHEV light-duty vehicle sales between 2011 and 2019.26
States continue to take steps to reduce transportation emissions, which surpassed emissions from the electric
power sector in 2017 to now contribute the largest share of total economy-wide CO2 emissions for the first
time since the late 1970s.27 One such regional strategy is the Transportation and Climate Initiative (TCI).
Formed in 2010, TCI is a regional collaboration between 12 Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states and the District
of Columbia that seeks to improve transportation, develop the clean energy economy, and reduce carbon
emissions from the transportation sector. In December 2018, 10 of the 13 jurisdictions announced their intent
to design a regional “cap-and-invest” policy that would raise funds for investing in clean transportation by
imposing a fee on the GHG emissions associated with on-road motor fuels. In the final MOU released in
December 2020, Connecticut, the District of Columbia, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island resolved to establish
a multijurisdictional cap-and-invest program designed to ensure reductions in CO2 emissions from the
11transportation sector, commencing as early as January 1, 2023.28 The program will require “State Fuel
Suppliers” to hold allowances to cover reported CO2 emissions. At the same time that the MOU was released,
eight additional states that have participated in the TCI process committed to continued collaboration with the
four core signatory states, including working to help develop a model rule and other clean transportation and
emission reduction program elements that could be implemented within each jurisdiction.29
Simultaneously, California is moving forward with its Advanced Clean Cars II (ACC II) regulations. The Air
Resources Board adopted the Low-Emissions Vehicle III regulation for criteria and GHG emissions as well
as the above-discussed ZEV standard in 2012 to control emission from passenger vehicles.30 The three
regulations, collectively referred to as the ACC regulation, aim to reduce smog-forming pollution that
contributes to air pollution, reduce GHG emissions, and increase the market share of ZEVs. ACC II will aim
to increase stringency, better align standards with real-world reductions (e.g., better control of engine start
emissions that can exceed lab test emissions), and improve the ZEV experience for consumers (e.g.,
standardizing fast charging ports).31 ARB staff presented an analysis and potential regulation modification in
May and September of 2020, ultimately expecting to release the ACC II proposed regulation in the spring of
2021 in preparation for the December 2021 Board hearing.
At the federal level, there are multiple proposed bills that would aim to expand funding for EVs and electric
vehicle infrastructure. The 2021 appropriations law, which was signed by President Trump on December 27,
2020, authorizes funding and programs to further support transportation development, including:
• $2.6 billion over three years for a reauthorization of the Department of Transportation’s sustainable
transportation research program, which would be directed toward RD&D and commercial application
activities within the Offices of Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technologies, Vehicle Technologies, and
Bioenergy Technologies;
• Surface Transportation Block Grant Program: $647.5 million for charging infrastructure along
corridor-ready or corridor-pending alternative fuel corridors;
• Clean Transit Buses: $125 million for the low or no emission grant program;
• Alternative Fuel Refueling Property Credit: extended through 2021, the tax credit provides $30,000
for businesses and $1,000 for residential properties to install alternative fuel facilities, including EV
charging stations.32
Looking ahead, President Biden’s climate plan outlined during his campaign includes a number of EV
provisions that would be necessary to achieve a long-term platform that 100 percent of new light- and medium-
duty vehicles be zero emitting.33 To support increasing charging demand and reduce range anxiety, President
Biden is looking to invest in half a million EV charging stations nation-wide. The plan couples infrastructure
investment with workforce development programs – referencing the Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Training
Program – to ensure proper installation of equipment and development of a strong labor market to support
electrification. Beyond passenger vehicles, the plan also outlines a goal to convert all 500,000 school buses
across the U.S. to ZEVs by 2030.
In last few months several business coalitions have launched to promote EVs, including the Zero Emission
Transportation Association (ZETA) and Electrification Coalition Business Council (ECBC). Formed at the
end of 2020, ZETA released a federal roadmap to achieve 100 percent EV sales by 2030, which consists of
34 policy proposals across six pillars: (1) accelerating light-duty EV consumer adoption through a range of
incentives, including extending $7,500 tax credit cap and converting it to a point of sale rebate; (2) accelerating
M/HD vehicle electrification, with a particular focus on buses, service, and delivery vehicles; (3) investing
$30 billion in a national charging initiative; (4) re-establishing the U.S. as a manufacturing front-runner in
production and innovation; (5) setting strong vehicle performance and emissions standards; and (6) positioning
the federal government as a leader through its own fleet electrification.34 Launching in early 2021, ECBC is
a branch of the Electrification Coalition, a non-profit that aims to accelerate the transition to EVs to improve
national and economic security given the U.S.’s heavy dependence on an “unstable oil market.”35 ZETA
12consists of 40 companies that are part of the broader ZEV ecosystem (e.g., utilities, charging network
providers, EV supply chain companies, and EV-specific manufacturers like Lucid and Tesla) while ECBC’s
13 members include auto manufacturers, like Ford, GM, Kia, and Volvo.
13Manufacturer Commitments
In 2012 there were 13 BEV and PHEV models available in the U.S. The number of electrified models
available in the U.S. is projected to reach 60 by the end of 2021 and 76 by the end of 2023 (Figure 3).*
Figure 3 Total Light-Duty Vehicle PHEV and BEV U.S. Models Available by Year
80
Number of Available Models
70
60
50
40 Historic
30 Projected
20
10
0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Source: 2012-2020, https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/, 2021-2022 models listed in the Appendix.
Based on these firm model announcements to date, as well as longer-term commitments and investment plans,
many manufacturers have taken stances in support of an EV future:
In total, carmakers worldwide will spend more than Automakers will spend
$ $257 billion through 2030 developing new electric
models.† For example, Ford has committed to $257 billion4 worldwide
Investment spending $11 billion on electrification in the five on light-duty vehicle
years between 2018 and 2022.36 In the five years electrification
between 2013 to 2017, Ford invested a total of $34.9
billion in R&D.37 Based on historical R&D through 2030
investment, the $11 billion commitment to
electrification investment could make up one third of Ford’s R&D investment over the next few
years. This investment could catalyze the electric truck market given Ford’s announcement to
produce the electric F-150. Since the last update to this report, GM increased its EV and
autonomous vehicle investment to $27 billion at the end of 2020, $7 billion more than its prior
commitment made six months earlier; Daimler announced it will allocate $85 billion to
accelerating the transformation towards electrification and digitization; and VW announced it
will commit $86 billion to electrification, hybrid powertrains, and digital technology, almost
half of which will be committed exclusively to EVs.38
* Vehicles included in this figure are those available in the U.S. with MSRP below $100,000. The number of available vehicle models will be greater
when considering global EV announcements and models that cost more than $100,000. Additionally, a model was only counted onc e although
various battery sizes, ranges, and prices may be available. For example, Tesla Model S was counted once but is available in standard, long, and
performance range options, same for the Leaf and Leaf e-Plus.
† $257 billion corresponds to the nine announcements listed in Figure 1 in the Appendix: BMW, Daimler, FCA, Ford, GM, Hyundai, Lucid, Tesla,
Toyota, VW, and Volvo. Investments by Audi, Bentley, and Porsche were not included as they are subsidiaries of VW Group as w ith Mercedes-
Benz of Daimler. Other analysts estimates - covering additional manufacturers – include $255 billion in R&D capital by 2023 and $300 billion by
2030. See https://www.alixpartners.com/media-center/press-releases/pile-up-awaits-auto-industry-investments-electric-autonomous-future-balloon/
and https://www.reuters.com/article/us-volvocars-electric-margins/volvo-expects-electric-car-margins-to-match-conventional-vehicles-by-2025-
idUSKCN1R12DD?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosgenerate&stream=top.
14General Motors Fiat Chrysler will invest $4.5 (See the Job Creation section
announced it would invest billion in five of its existing for additional manufacturing
$2.2 billion – its largest Michigan plants in addition to commitments)
investment in a building a new assembly plant
manufacturing facility to in Detroit, which will both
date – to repurpose the continue to produce existing
Detroit Factory ZERO ICE models as well as enable
Manufacturing assembly center as its electrification of new Jeep
“flagship assembly plant in models.40
[its] journey to an all-
electric future.”39
As 70 percent of plug-in EVs driven on U.S. roads in 2019 were
assembled domestically, these manufacturing plant investments
highlight continued cultivation of a strong EV workforce and robust
market.41
BMW Chairman Harald Ford has created Team Edison, a GM has positioned
Krüger anticipates a bright dedicated global EV organization Cadillac to be its lead EV
future for the brand’s EV “focused on bringing to market brand going forward,
line up: “by 2021, we will profitable, exciting [EVs] and highlighting the BEV3
Manufacturer have doubled our sales of ownership experiences.”43 Ford platform and declaring that
electrified vehicles has stated a goal of having sixteen “our commitment to an all-
Commitments compared with 2019…we BEVs in their portfolio by 2022 electric, zero-emissions
will offer 25 electrified and has announced plans to future is unwavering.”45
vehicles already in 2023 – convert two of its North Its Factory ZERO
two years earlier than American plants to build plug-in renovations will reposition
originally planned. We models. As part of its $11 billion the facility for greater EV
expect to see a steep EV investment, Ford is investing production.
growth curve towards $500 million in Rivian to develop
2025.”42 an all-new, next-generation BEV
for Ford’s portfolio.44
Hyundai Motor Group Daimler aims to have a carbon- Fiat-Chrysler has
has declared it hopes to neutral passenger vehicle fleet by committed to producing
become “one of the 2039, which will be driven by the more than 30 electrified
world’s top three EV introduction of “an entire models by 2022, 10 of
manufacturers by 2025” generation of electric Mercedes which will be plug-in
through a dedicated EV models,” which will be entirely Jeeps and four will be all
brand IONIQ.46 electrified by 2022.47 electric Jeeps.48
Porsche pledged that by VW hopes to produce 26 million Outside of the U.S.
2022 the company will be EVs over the next decade, an market, PSA Groupe –
investing more than six increase from its previous goal of the parent company of
billion euros in electric 22 million. VW’s CEO France’s two major
mobility and by 2025, 50 announced, “our future electric automakers Peugeot and
percent of all new Porsche cars will be the new trademark of Citroen – will electrify 80
vehicles could have an Volkswagen.”50 percent of its models by
electric drive system.”49 2023.51
15PACCAR’s Kenworth and Peterbilt In October 2019 Navistar launched their NEXT
divisions are partnering with Dana for eMobility solutions business unit to focus on
electric truck powertrain development. electrification solutions in truck and school bus
Kenworth has already developed a markets. The company has already developed a
Trucking prototype Class 6 medium-duty electric prototype electric school bus and an electric
truck and has plans to produce up to 100 medium-duty truck.53
of them in 2020.52
Daimler Trucks has a goal of selling CO2-neutral commercial vehicles across all of their
markets, including North America, by 2039. In North America, Daimler’s Freightliner
division has developed electric versions of their popular Cascadia Class 8 tractor, M2 Class 6
medium-duty chassis, and MT50 medium-duty step van. Since 2018, a 30-vehicle Freightliner
Electric Innovation Fleet has been operating at customer sites, accumulating over 100,000
miles of real-world operation. In March 2020, Freightliner announced it would expand this
fleet by deploying eight more EVs with at least 14 different customers over the next 22
months, who collectively operate more than 150,000 Class 6 -8 vehicles.54 In November 2020,
the 30-vehicle fleet of BEV Freightliner eCascadias and 8 eM2s that make up the Freightliner
Electric Innovation Fleet and the Freightliner CX Fleet, respectively, surpassed 500,000 miles
of real-world use.55
In Europe, seven of the largest truck manufacturers – Daimler, Scania, MAN, Volvo, DAF,
IVECO, and Ford – committed to phasing out diesel trucks by 2040, ten years earlier than
initially planned.56
Figure 4 summarizes projected U.S. BEV and PHEV model availability over the next three model years (a list
of models considered can be found in the Appendix as well as timelines of various manufacturer commitments,
model introductions, and EV sales forecasts57). In the spring of 2020, many automakers that had anticipated
near-term launches of new electric models – including Rivian (R1S and R1T), GM (Hummer), Byton (M-
Byte and K-Byte), and Workhorse (W-15) – revised their timelines, halted operations, and furloughed workers
due to the COVID-19 pandemic. While some of these release dates have been formally pushed to 2021, others
remain uncertain. The disruption of supply chains and the shift in consumer spending patterns is affecting the
auto industry as a whole – not only EV offerings – leading many brands to delay model launches and less-
profitable updates until 2021 or 2022 (see Sales Forecast for greater detail on the effect of COVID-19 on EV
sales).58
16Figure 4 Cumulative Announced U.S. Light-Duty BEV and PHEV Models 2021-2024 by Body Type
Announced Models Available
2021
2022
2023/2024
(if available)
BEV
PHEV
Sedan SUV Truck/Van
Body Type
This figure only includes U.S. vehicles with an announced model name and model year introduction date and projected or
announced purchase price less than $100,000. A complete list of models included in this graph can be found in the Appendix.
According to the Department of Energy, the median EPA estimated range for all EV models offered in the
MY2020 exceeded 250 miles and also marked the first year that an EV achieved an EPA estimated
maximum range of more than 400 miles.59
17Job Creation
The EV industry employed nearly 130,000 individuals across the U.S. in 2019, with jobs surpassing 266,000
when also including jobs associated with hybrid, natural gas, hydrogen, and fuel cell vehicles.60 This includes
jobs associated with creating an expansive charging network as well. California, Michigan, and Texas are
the top three states supplying these clean vehicle jobs, respectively. These jobs contributed to 42 states and
the District of Columbia employing more clean energy than fossil fuel workers in 2019. In expanding BEV
and PHEV offerings, auto makers understand the economic impact they can have through enhanced
production capacity.
Light-Duty Vehicles
Ford plans to invest more than In Michigan GM will invest In November 2019, VW
$1.45 billion in Michigan $2.2 billion at Factory ZERO started the expansion of its
production, which could result in Detroit and $300 million in Chattanooga, Tennessee,
in approximately 3,000 new its Orion Township plant, assembly plant, which
Assembly Plant jobs. This includes 900 jobs amounting to 2,200 and 400 aims to add 1,000 jobs that
Production through a $900 million new jobs, respectively.62 GM will support its new EV
expansion at its Flat Rock also received a $35 million line-up.65
plant as well as those created job training assistance grant
by a $700 million investment from Tennessee’s State
at the Rouge Complex for Funding Board to retain and
production of the electric F- train 2,000 employees.63
150.61 Beyond manufacturing, GM
will offer 3,000 positions for
software development.64
According to an IHS Markit Tesla is building a $1 billion Lucid Motors completed
report from May 2018, EV manufacturing plant in the first phase of its $700
Tesla’s operations have Travis County, Texas, that million investment for its
supported over 51,000 jobs in could support 5,000 direct Arizona factory and will
California (20,189 directly, jobs and more than 4,000 resume construction in
31,424 indirectly through local indirect jobs due to secondary early 2021.68
supply chain purchases and effects.67
employee consumer
activity).66
Mercedes-Benz has Fiat Chrysler will invest
committed $1 billion to a plant $4.5 billion in five of its
in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, to set existing Michigan plants,
up production of EVs in the which could create nearly
U.S. and expects this will 6,500 jobs.70
create 600 new jobs.69
GM is investing $2.3 billion into a joint venture with LG Chemical to produce its Ultium
battery at a plant in northeastern Ohio – a partnership that could bring over 1,100 jobs to the
Battery area.71
Production
18Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles
Navistar is investing $250 Tesla selected Austin, Texas, Daimler Trucks North
million in a San Antonio plant as the site of its next America expects to start
that will produce both diesel Gigafactory, where it will production of the
Assembly Plant and electric trucks, through invest $1 billion to produce a eCascadia and eM2 trucks
which it expects to support range of EVs, including the in Portland, Oregon, in
Production
600 new jobs. It also Tesla Semi Truck – an effort 2021 after announcing
announced a new facility that will be supported by plans in 2019 to convert
outside of Detroit that will 5,000 new jobs.73 the plant to produce
employ 50 eMobility electric Freightliners.74
specialists.72
Volvo Trucks will invest U.K.-based Arrival, Ford will hire 150
$400 million over six years to specializing in delivery vans, workers in Missouri to
upgrade its New River Valley, will establish its first U.S. build the E-Transit van.77
Virginia plant, which produces Microfactory in York
all Volvo trucks sold in North County, South Carolina. The
America. This could result in $46 million investment is
over 775 new jobs.75 expected to create 240 new
jobs.76
19Figure 5 Announced Electric Vehicle Manufacturing Plant Expansions and Future Plans*
Batteries:
OH: GM (Lordstown)
Light-Duty:
AL: Mercedes-Benz (Tuscaloosa)
AZ: Lucid Motors (between Phoenix and Flagstaff)
MI: Ford (Flat Rock, Rouge Complex, Dearborn),
GM (Orion Township, Detroit Factory ZERO), Fiat Chrysler
(across five plants)
TN: VW (Chattanooga), GM (Spring Hill)
TX: Tesla (Travis County)
Medium- and Heavy-Duty *Map is forward looking, does not include
MO: Ford (Kansas City Assembly Plant) existing plants like Tesla’s Fremont, California,
OR: Daimler Trucks North America (Portland) plant, Rivian’s Normal Plant in Illinois, or
Thomas Built Bus’ electric school bus plant in
SC: Arrival (York County) North Carolina or factories that have undergone
TX: Navistar (San Antonio), Tesla (Travis County) renovations in recent years to prepare for
VA: Volvo Trucks (New River Valley) electrification, like Peterbilt’s expansions in
Texas.
20Charging Network Investments
Creating an accessible public charging network will be essential to achieving wide-spread EV adoption.
Although most drivers are expected to charge at home overnight due to convenience and discounted off-peak
rates offered by utilities, public charging is vital for EV drivers who live in multi-unit complexes or those
without a private driveway. Additionally, drivers will need charging along highways and interstates to feel
confident in their ability to drive longer distances and charge along the way. Expected future battery
improvements will increase EV range, thus reducing but not eliminating the need for public charging
networks to support long-distance travel
Today, five networks make up nearly 80 percent of public Direct Current Fast Chargers (DCFC) (Figure 6)
while one company – ChargePoint – dominates the public Level 2 market (Figure 7).
Figure 6 Number of Public Direct Current Fast Charging Stations by Network
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Tesla ChargePoint EVgo Non- Electrify Other Greenlots
Supercharger Networked America
Other includes Francis, Blink, Webasto, EV Connect, and OpConnect. Source: Alternative Fuels Data Center, January 2,
2021, https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/electricity_locations.html#/find/nearest?fuel=ELEC&country=US&ev_levels=dc_fast
Figure 7 Number of Public Level 2 Charging Stations by Network
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
ChargePoint Non- Tesla SemaConnect Blink Other Volta EV Connect Greenlots
networked Destination
Other includes EVgo, FLO, Electrify America, OpConnect, GE WattStation, Webasto,and Francis. Source: Alternative Fuels
Data Center, January 2, 2021,
https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/electricity_locations.html#/find/nearest?fuel=ELEC&country=US&ev_levels=dc_fast
21As automakers prepare to bring more electrified models to market, they are also recognizing the need for a
robust, well-developed charging ecosystem to support drivers. Notable milestones include:
• Marry Barra, the Chairman and CEO of GM, said “we are moving quickly to bring new EVs to
market that customers will love. We know how important the charging ecosystem is for drivers, one
that includes access to convenient and reliable public fast charging” when announcing GM and
EVgo’s partnership to bring 2,700 new fast charge plugs to drivers over the next five years.78
• Porsche is offering owners of its first EV model, the Taycan, three years of free charging through a
partnership with Electrify America – total investment will reach $70 million to install chargers at the
automaker’s 191 U.S. dealerships.79
• Rivian will build out the Rivian Adventure Network with dozens of chargers available by biking and
hiking trails and destination spots.80
While these investments reflect automakers’ understanding of the need for an expansive and reliable charging
network, they are not alone in investing in widespread deployment of charging infrastructure. Utilities offer
expertise, rebates, and unique charging rates while local and state governments provide funding and
sometimes free or discounted charging at certain locations.
Major oil and gas companies are also exploring investments to adapt to an electric future. According to
Shell’s New Energies Executive Vice President, Shell’s acquisition of Greenlots, an EV charging company,
“is a step towards making EV charging more accessible and more attractive to utilities, businesses, and
communities.”81 Chevron also made headlines as the first major oil and gas company in the U.S. to announce
that it will offer a dozen EV charging plugs at five of its gas stations in California.82
22Commercial Fleet Electrification Commitments
While cars and light-duty trucks account for the majority share of transportation GHG emissions, medium-
and heavy-duty vehicles are responsible for nearly a quarter, with this percentage projected to increase in the
future.83
Full-sized (40-ft.) electric transit buses have been commercially available in North America for 10 years, and
their use has been steadily growing; as of early 2020, approximately 180 U.S. transit agencies are operating
a total of more than 850 electric transit buses, with more than 1,000 additional electric buses on order for
delivery in the next two years. This is almost three percent of the national transit bus fleet.84 This is the only
M/HD vehicle segment with significant EV penetration to-date.
A few years ago, the only large EVs commercially available in the U.S were transit buses. Today (2021),
there are 44 medium-duty electrified models, 24 heavy-duty models, and over 40 bus models offered for sale,
across a range of vehicle vocations, and this number will continue to grow in coming years (see Appendix
for greater detail). Companies that operate large fleets are taking note: Amazon has ordered 100,000 electric
delivery vans from Rivian; FedEx ordered 1,000 electric vans from Chanje; UPS and DHL ordered 950
electric trucks and 63 delivery vans, respectively, from Workhorse; and Walmart and PepsiCo – both
companies that have pledged to strive for zero and net-zero emissions, respectively, by 2040 – are looking to
Tesla for its electric semi-truck plans.85 The U.S. Post Office is considering three companies – two of which
specialize in EVs or produce electrified variants (Workhorse and Karsan) – for a $6 billion contract to replace
180,000 mail trucks, a deal it is expected to announce in the second quarter of 2021.86
With these commitments, the number of electric trucks in use could skyrocket in the near-future from 2,000
in 2019 to 54,000 by 2025.87 These investments will continue to grow thanks to corporate fleet electrification
commitments (Table 1).88 For example, EV100 is a global initiative bringing together 82 companies
committed to accelerating the EV transition and making electric transport the new normal by 2030.
Commitments cover a broad range of vehicles from delivery vehicles to commuter buses to garbage trucks.
Major Orders
PepsiCo ordered 100 electric semi- DHL ordered 63 electric delivery FedEx ordered 1,000 electric
trucks from Tesla vans from Workhorse delivery vans from Chanje
UPS ordered 950 electric trucks Walmart ordered 45 semi-trucks Amazon ordered 100,000 electric
from Workhorse and 10,000 from Tesla delivery vans from Rivian
vehicles from Arrival
Recent Orders Since Last Report Update89
Pride Group ordered over 6,300 Pritchard Companies ordered 500 Bimbo Bakeries ordered over 100
delivery vehicles from Workhorse delivery trucks from Workhorse vans from Motiv Power Systems
and 150 semi-trucks from Tesla
Fleet electrification goals will exert pressure on auto manufacturers to keep pace. After receiving nearly $45
million in grant funding from the California Air Resources Board, Volvo launched Volvo LIGHTS, a three-
year demonstration project to test the ability for heavy-duty, battery electric trucks and equipment to reliably
move freight between ports and warehouses in Southern California.90 The initiative focuses on providing a
range of vehicle, charging, and workforce development innovations. The focus includes new lithium-ion
battery chemistries that increase energy density by more than 20 percent and prevent premature degradation
to reduce cost, as well as multiple truck configurations with all-electric ranges of up to 250 miles. General
Motors launched a new business unit, BrightDrop, in January 2021 that will focus on electric first-to-last-
mile products, software, and services.91 The brand will release two models in 2021: the EP1 and the EV600.
FedEx was part of an initial pilot utilizing the EP1 and will be the first customer for the EV600.
23Table 1 Sample of Fleet Electrification Commitments
Sector Company Electric Fleet Plans
Retail Ikea Group* 2020: Electrify deliveries in Amsterdam, Los Angeles, New York, Paris, and Shanghai
(25% global of deliveries)
2025: 100% EV or other zero-emissions solutions for deliveries and services through
suppliers
Amazon 2022: 10,000 electric delivery vans (short-term goal)
2030: 100,000 electric delivery vans total (long-term goal)
Clif Bar & Company* 2030: 100% fleet electrification
Unilever 2030: 100% fleet electrification (11,000 vehicles)
Walmart 2040: Zero emission vehicle fleet, including long-haul (6,000 trucks)
Power Schneider Electric* 2030: 100% electric fleet (14,000 vehicles)
Edison Electric Institute 2030: More than 70 percent of EEI member companies will collectively electrify more
(EEI) Member than one-third of their total fleet vehicles, including two-thirds of passenger vehicles in
Companies (investor- fleets. Examples include:
owned utilities)
• Xcel Energy: 2023: 100% electric sedan portion of fleet; 2030: 100% electric
light-duty fleet; 30% medium- and heavy-duty
• Consumers Energy: 2025: Buy or lease 100% of EVs for fleet
• Southern California Edison: 2030: 100% electric passenger car and small-to-
midsize SUV, 30% medium-duty vehicles and pickup trucks, 8% heavy-duty
trucks, 60% forklifts
Transportation Antelope Valley Transit 2018: Convert all the agency's aging diesel buses to a 100% battery electric bus fleet
with up to 85 new all-electric buses
Lyft** 2026: 100% new vehicles for Express Drive (driver rental program) are electric
2030: 100% EVs on platform
King County Metro 2030: 100% zero-emissions fleet
Lime* 2030: 100% conversion of operations fleet
Uber** 2030: 100% of rides take place in EVs in U.S., Canadian, and European cities
2040: 100% of rides take place in zero-emission vehicles, on public transit or with
micromobility
Delivery DHL 2025: 70% of first- and last-mile delivery services with clean transport modes
2050: Reduce logistics-related emissions to zero
Biotech Genentech 2030: 100% electrification of sales fleet (1,300 vehicles) and commuter buses
Municipal New York City, New 2017: Only purchase PHEVs for non-emergency sedans going forward
York 2025: Add 2,000 EVs to NYC sedan fleet
2040: 100% electric MTA bus fleet
New Jersey 2024: At least 10% of new bus purchases will be zero emission buses
2026: At least 50% of new bus purchases will be zero emissions buses
2032: 100% of new bus purchases will be zero emissions buses
Los Angeles, California 2028: 100% ZEV vehicle conversions “where technically feasible” (2028: taxi fleet,
school buses; 2035: urban delivery vehicles)
2035: 100% electrification of sanitation fleet through LA Department of Sanitation
Commitment
Houston, Texas 2030: 100% EV non-emergency, light-duty municipal fleet
Chicago, Illinois 2040: 100% electric Chicago Transit Authority (CTA) bus fleet (1,850 buses)
*Member companies of EV100
**Drivers for Lyft and Uber are contractors rather than employees, so it may be difficult to convince drivers to switch to EVs. Lyft does not
intend to remove drivers from platform who do not drive electric or provide financial incentives to drivers for the transition. Instead, much of
the plan revolves around exerting pressure on competitors, lawmakers, and automakers. Uber will pay BEV and hybrid drivers an incentive of
$1.50 and $0.50 per trip, respectively, and GM and Renault-Nissan will offer discounts to EVs. While Uber has not explicitly stated they will
not remove non-electric drivers, they may be in a similar position as Lyft. Uber recently announce it will roll out “Uber Green” in 1,400 North
American cities and launch partnerships to expand EV access for its drivers.
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