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United States Department of Agriculture
International Food Security
Economic
Research
Service
Assessment, 2019-2029
GFA 30
August 2019
Projections for higher incomes
and lower food prices translate
into improved food security outlook
for 2029 for 76 low- and middle-
income countries
United States Department of Agriculture
Economic Research Service
www.ers.usda.gov
Recommended citation format for this publication:
Thome, Karen, Michael D. Smith, Kamron Daugherty, Nicholas Rada, Cheryl Christensen, and
Birgit Meade. International Food Security Assessment, 2019-2029, GFA-30, U.S. Department
of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, August 2019.
Cover photo credit: WFP/Giulio d'Adamo
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USDA is an equal opportunity provider, employer, and lender.United States Department of Agriculture
Economic
Research
Service International Food Security Assessment,
2019-2029
Karen Thome, Michael D. Smith, Kamron Daugherty,
GFA-30 Nicholas Rada, Cheryl Christensen, and Birgit Meade
August 2019
Abstract
USDA-ERS presents results from its International Food Security Assessment model, a
demand-driven framework that includes information on domestic prices and consumer
responsiveness to changes in prices and incomes. Given projections for lower food prices
and rising incomes, food security for the 76 low- and middle-income countries included
is expected to improve through 2029. The share of population that is food insecure is
projected to fall from 19.3 percent in 2019 to 9.2 percent in 2029. The number of food-
insecure people is projected to fall markedly from 782 million to 399 or a decline of 45
percent, faster than the decline in the food gap, the amount of food necessary to allow
all food-insecure people to reach the nutritional target of 2,100 calories per capita per
day, indicating somewhat slower change in the intensity of food insecurity, at the aggre-
gate level.
Keywords: Food security, food insecurity, food prices, income, food demand,
trade, production, commercial imports, export earnings, calories, nutritional target,
Sub-Saharan Africa, North Africa, Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, Food
Insecurity Experience Scale, FIES.
Acknowledgments
Appreciation is extended to Steven Zahniser, Acting Chief of the International Trade
and Development Branch, Market and Trade Economics Division (MTED), Economic
Research Service (ERS). We would also like to thank the reviewers for their feed-
back and helpful comments, especially David Stallings, USDA’s World Agricultural
Outlook Board; Sharon Sydow, USDA’s Office of the Chief Economist; Hui Jiang, Pace
Lubinsky, and several anonymous reviewers of USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service;
Keith Wiebe and an anonymous reviewer from IFRPI, and Aikaterini Kavallari of the
UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization. Special thanks are extended to Dale Simms
for editorial assistance, David Marquardt for map design, and Cynthia A. Ray for layout
and cover design.Preface
This report continues the series of food assessments in developing countries begun
in the late 1970s by USDA’s Economic Research Service. Global Food Assessments
were done from 1990 to 1992, hence the GFA series. In 1993, the title was changed
to Food Aid Needs Assessment to more accurately reflect the contents of the report,
which focuses on selected developing countries with recent or ongoing food deficits. In
1997, we widened our analysis beyond the assessment of aggregate food availability to
include more aspects of food security. We therefore changed the title to Food Security
Assessment. Starting with the report published in July 2011, we changed the name to
International Food Security Assessment to clarify that this is not an assessment of U.S.
food security.
ii
International Food Security Assessment, 2019-29, GFA-30
USDA, Economic Research ServiceContents
Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . iv
Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1
Regional Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9
Sub-Saharan Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .10
Central Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
East Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
Southern Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .20
West Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .22
North Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .25
Latin America and the Caribbean . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .29
Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .33
Special Article: Identifying the Risk Factors of Food Insecurity Around the World
Using FAO’s Food Insecurity Experience Scale . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .37
Appendix–Food Security Assessment Model: Definitions and Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . .50
Structural Framework for Estimating and Projecting Food Demand in the Aggregate . . . . . . . 51
Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
Modeling Staple Cereal Production . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55
Appendix: Food Security Measures for IFSA Countries, 2019 and 2029 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .57
iii
International Food Security Assessment, 2019-29, GFA-30
USDA, Economic Research ServiceSummary
United States Department of Agriculture
A report summary from the Economic Research Service August 2019
Economic
Research
Service
United States Department of Agriculture
International Food Security
Assessment, 2019-2029
International Food Security Assessment,
2019-2029
GFA 30
August 2019
Karen Thome, Michael D. Smith, Kamron Daugherty,
Projections for higher incomes
and lower food prices translate
into improved food security outlook
for 2029 for 76 low- and middle-
income countries
Nicholas Rada, Cheryl Christensen, and Birgit Meade
What Is the Issue?
International food price spikes over the past decade have challenged the food security of
vulnerable populations, as evidenced by riots due in part to sharp increases in prices of basic
foods in some parts of the world, from Haiti to Bangladesh to Egypt. Low food prices and
rising incomes can improve a country's food security situation because people can more
readily afford and access food. The speed of improvement in food security is also affected
by inequality in income and consumption, as well as by agricultural production and market
conditions. For example, if average income gains accrue predominantly to lower income house-
holds, thus making income distribution more equal, food security will improve faster than if
inequality in incomes widens. Understanding how these factors collectively affect food supply
and demand provides a measure of progress in food security. This report assesses food security
indicators for 76 low- and middle-income countries grouped into four regions: Sub-Saharan
Africa (39 countries), North Africa (4 countries), Latin America and the Caribbean (11 coun-
tries), and Asia (22 countries).
What Did the Study Find?
In 14 out of 76 countries, more than 50 percent of their populations were estimated to be food
insecure in 2019. Eight of those countries are in Central and East Africa, one in West and
Southern Africa each, and three in Asia. Haiti is the most food-insecure country in the Western
Hemisphere, with 47 percent estimated to be food insecure in 2019.
Given projections for lower food prices and rising incomes for most countries in this report, food
security generally is expected to improve between 2019 and 2029. Food security is assessed using
three indicators, all of which are projected to improve:
• The share of the food-insecure population is expected to fall from 19.3 percent to 9.2
percent.
ERS is a primary source • The number of food-insecure people is projected to fall from 728 million to 399 million.
of economic research and
analysis from the U.S. • The food gap—the amount of food required to allow all food-insecure people to reach
Department of Agriculture,
providing timely informa- the caloric target of 2,100 calories per person per day—is projected to decline from 33.5
tion on economic and policy million tons to 21.9 million tons.
issues related to agriculture,
food, the environment, and
rural America.
www.ers.usda.govGains in food security vary across regions.
• In Asia, where income growth is strong, the share of the food-insecure population is projected to
decline from 13.9 percent in 2019 to 3.5 percent in 2029.
• The challenge is greater in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) where population growth is higher and
income growth lower. In 2019, SSA has an estimated 35.3 percent of its population food insecure;
despite improvements, 22.5 percent are still projected to be food insecure in 2029.
• In Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), the share of the population that is food insecure is
projected to drop from 17.4 percent in 2019 to 8.3 percent in 2029.
• Food security is also projected to improve for North Africa, the most food-secure region in the
study. There, the share of the population that is food insecure falls from 5.2 percent in 2019 to 1.9
percent in 2029.
Of note, these projections show potential improvements assuming favorable income and price trends. The
projections do not include predictions of future weather and conflict-induced crises and food shortfalls—
constant challenges in some of the most food-insecure countries—and therefore are most representative of a
baseline scenario.
How Was the Study Conducted?
The ERS demand-oriented International Food Security Assessment (IFSA) model projects food demand and
food gaps in 76 low- and middle-income countries through 2029. Food security is evaluated for each country
by estimating the share of the population unable to reach a caloric target of 2,100 calories per person per
day. The intensity of food insecurity is measured by determining the gap between projected food demand
for those falling below the threshold and the caloric target. Food demand is expressed in grain equivalents
based on caloric content to allow aggregation across four separate food groups: the major grain consumed in
the country, other grains, roots and tubers, and all other food. Average per capita food consumption data are
from the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Food Balance Sheets and FAO’s cereal
balances. Observed domestic prices are from FAO’s Global Information Early Warning System (GIEWS)
database. Tariff data are from the World Bank World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS). Incomes, exchange
rates, and Consumer Price Indexes (CPI) are from the ERS International Macroeconomic Dataset. World
prices are from USDA’s Agricultural Projections to 2028.
www.ers.usda.govInternational Food Security Assessment,
2019-2029
Overview
The ERS International Food Security Assessment (IFSA) model projects per capita food demand
and compares that against a nutritional target of 2,100 calories per person per day, an average caloric
level necessary to sustain a healthy and active lifestyle, to determine whether populations in 76
low- and middle-income countries (historical food aid recipients) should be considered food secure.
Demand projections are based on food prices and incomes. Given projections of rising incomes
(according to the ERS International Macroeconomic Data Set) and relatively low and stable food
prices over the medium term, international food security is expected to improve through 2029.
Income projections for 2019 were revised downward for parts of the world since this report was
prepared, leading to a more positive picture than would be obtained as of July 2019. Model projec-
tions cannot take into account future unknown adverse events such as destruction and disruption
caused by catastrophic weather, armed conflict, or great political and economic instability. For this
reason, the following results are most representive of a baseline scenario. Furthermore, it is impor-
tant to note that the following study focuses on just two of the four aspects or ‘pillars’ of food secu-
rity: Availability of food is accounted for by projecting food production and trade; financial access
to food is accounted for by projecting per capita incomes and food prices. The remaining pillars,
ensuring that the food nutrients can be utilized (preventing diseases from poor drinking water, etc.)
and ensuring stability (absence of armed conflict, hyperinflation, etc.) are equally important but
beyond the scope of this study.
For the 76 countries covered by this report, an estimated 19.3 percent of their population is projected to
be food insecure in 2019. This means that 728 million people out of the total population of 3.8 billion
in these 76 countries may not have consistent access to the daily caloric target of 2,100 calories.
Projected per capita income growth for the coming decade remains positive in almost all of the
76 countries, and international prices for major grains are projected to continue decreasing in real
terms. However, local prices may not always follow global trends due to fluctuating currencies or
poor linkages between local and international markets.
Over the next 10 years, the share of the population that is food insecure in the 76 countries studied
is projected to fall to 9.2 percent (399 million people) by 2029, a 45-percent drop in the number of
food-insecure people from 2019.
The food gap, defined as the amount of food needed for all food-insecure people to reach the caloric
target, is an indicator of the intensity of food insecurity. It can be expressed in calories per capita per
day or in grain-equivalent quantities and is used to measure the annual national food shortfall. For
the 76 countries examined, the total food gap is projected to decline in all four regions, from a total
of 33.5 million tons in 2019 to 21.9 million tons in 2029.
1
International Food Security Assessment, 2019-29, GFA-30
USDA, Economic Research ServiceFigure 1
Share of population that is projected to be food insecure, 2019
Share of population
food insecure (percent)
< 10
10 - 30
30 - 50
> 50
Non-IFSA countries
IFSA = International Food Security Assessment.
Source: USDA, Economic Research Service, based on results from the International Food Security Assessment model.
Figure 2
Share of population that is projected to be food insecure, 2029
Share of population
food insecure (percent
< 10
10 - 30
30 - 50
> 50
Non-IFSA countries
IFSA = International Food Security Assessment.
Source: USDA, Economic Research Service, based on results from the International Food Security Assessment model.
2
International Food Security Assessment, 2019-29, GFA-30
USDA, Economic Research ServiceThe 76 countries examined in this study are divided into four major regions: Sub-Saharan Africa
(SSA), Asia, Latin American and the Caribbean (LAC), and North Africa. Current levels of food
insecurity (based on estimates for 2019) vary greatly across these regions. SSA (39 countries) has
the highest share and largest number of food-insecure people: 35.3 percent of the population, or 355
million food-insecure people (appendix table 1). Asia (22 countries), despite being the most popu-
lous region, has an estimated 333 million food-insecure people (13.9 percent) in 2019. In LAC (11
countries), 17.4 percent of the population is food insecure, while North Africa (4 countries) has the
lowest share of food-insecure people, at 5.2 percent.
Food security is projected to improve by 2029 in all IFSA regions over the next 10 years; the share
of the population that is food insecure in the 76 countries studied is projected to fall to 9.2 percent
(399 million people) by 2029, a 45-percent drop in the number of food-insecure people from 2019.
In North Africa, the number of food-insecure people is projected to decrease by more than half, with
less than 2 percent of the population projected as food insecure in 2029. In the 11 LAC countries
included in this study, the share of the population that is food insecure is projected to decrease by
more than half, falling to 8.3 percent by 2029.1 SSA is projected to see the slowest improvement in
food security, with the share of food-insecure people falling 36 percent to 22.5 percent of the popu-
lation (app. table 1). The greatest decline in food insecurity is projected for the 22 Asian countries
included in this study: the share of food insecure is projected to drop by about 75 percent to 3.5
percent of the population, and the number of food insecure people is projected to decline from 333 to
93 million people.
Figure 3a
The share of the population that is food insecure is projected to fall by 2029
Percent food insecure
40
2019 2029
30
20
10
0
Asia LAC North Africa SSA
LAC = Latin America and the Caribbean, SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa.
Source: USDA, Economic Research Service, based on results from the International Food Security Assessment model.
1Venezuela, a country that has experienced food shortages in recent times, is not part of this study. Recent economic
indicators and surveys suggest a fast worsening food security situation in that country.
3
International Food Security Assessment, 2019-29, GFA-30
USDA, Economic Research ServiceFigure 3b
The number of food-insecure people is projected to decline
Number of food-insecure people, million
400
2019 2029
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Asia LAC North Africa SSA
LAC = Latin America and the Caribbean, SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa.
Source: USDA, Economic Research Service, based on results from the International Food Security Assessment model.
Figure 3c
The total food gap is projected to decline by 2029
Million tons*
25
2019 2029
20
15
10
5
0
Asia LAC North Africa SSA
*Measured in grain equivalent.
LAC = Latin America and the Caribbean, SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa.
Source: USDA, Economic Research Service, based on results from the International Food Security Assessment model.
4
International Food Security Assessment, 2019-29, GFA-30
USDA, Economic Research ServiceFigure 4
SSA accounts for one-fourth of the population of the 76 countries but is projected to have
almost half the food-insecure people in 2019
Total population Food-insecure population
27%
49%
46%
5% 64%
4%
4%
1%
Asia LAC North Africa SSA
LAC = Latin America and the Caribbean, SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa.
Source: USDA, Economic Research Service, based on results from the International Food Security Assessment model.
Figure 5
Inflation-adjusted income per capita by region, 2019 and 2029
$1,000 (2010 U.S.)
8
GDP per capita, 2019 GDP per capita, 2029
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Asia LAC North Africa SSA
LAC = Latin America and the Caribbean, SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa.
Note: Value in 2010 U.S. dollars to adjust for inflation.
Source: USDA, Economic Research Service calculations using ERS Macroeconomic Data Set.
5
International Food Security Assessment, 2019-29, GFA-30
USDA, Economic Research ServicePer capita income is projected to increase2 between 2019 and 2029 in almost all the countries exam-
ined. Notable exceptions are countries experiencing armed conflict and political instability such as
Somalia and Yemen. In most parts of the world, economic growth is projected to be slightly faster
over the coming decade, as export-dependent economies currently affected by low prices of extract-
able commodities begin to grow again. Asia is projected to sustain historically fast growth in gross
domestic product (GDP), especially in India and Southeast Asia. Despite improved GDP growth
prospects in parts of SSA, rapid population growth dampens the impact of these gains on per capita
income growth.
International food commodity prices are expected to fall slightly in inflation-adjusted terms over the
coming decade (figure 6). In some markets, world and domestic food prices are integrated through
trade. In other cases, barriers to trade can cause domestic prices to move independently of world
prices; some agricultural commodities (e.g., cassava) are rarely traded.
Increases in food grain demand, as well as grain demand for feed and other uses, are expected to be
met by domestic production and imports (table 1). Feed grain demand (part of “other grain demand”
in table 1) is projected to grow faster than food grain demand, as incomes rise and consumers can
afford more animal source foods. Likewise, as incomes rise, diets diversify, and people obtain a
smaller share of their caloric intake from food grains such as wheat and rice. As a result, grain
demand on a per capita basis stabilizes and may even decrease. This trend is most noticeable in
South Asia and Southeast Asia. Grains are typically staple foods for the world’s poorest consumers.
Thus, as the population grows in the 76 countries studied, their total food grain demand increases by
30 percent (versus a 40-percent increase in other grain demand).
Figure 6
Inflation-adjusted prices of major grains, 2019-29
2010 U.S. $/ton
400
Corn Rice Sorghum Wheat
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029
Note: Prices in 2010 U.S. dollars to adjust for inflation.
Source: USDA Agricultural Projections to 2028, Long-term Projections report OCE-2019-1.
2Macroeconomic projections come from the ERS International Macroeconomic Data Set, which uses data from the World
Bank Development Indicators, the International Financial Statistics of the International Monetary Fund, IHS Global Insight, and
Oxford Economic Forecasting, as well as estimated and projected values developed by USDA's Economic Research Service.
6
International Food Security Assessment, 2019-29, GFA-30
USDA, Economic Research ServiceTable 1
Food security indicators for 76 low- and middle-income countries, 2019 and 2029
Implied additional
Year Food grain demand Other grain demand* Grain production supply required**
Million tons
2019 577 256 660 173
2029 754 360 754 361
*Other grain demand includes seed, feed, waste, and processing.
**The gap between grain demand and domestic grain production.
Source: USDA, Economic Research Service.
Grain production for the 76 countries examined is projected to increase 1.4 percent per year through
2029. In most regions, production gains are expected to come from improved yields, because there
is little additional arable land to bring into production and because low prices for agricultural
commodities discourage area expansion. In SSA, grain production is expected to rise faster than the
76-country average. In that region, input use and yields are low to begin with, leaving much room
for improvement; some area expansion is also expected as more resilient seed varieties and irrigation
investment allow expansion into formerly less well suited areas.
The gap between domestic grain production and demand grows over the projection period for the 76
countries. Historically, commercial import growth has outpaced production (Tandon et al., 2017). In
North Africa and LAC, grain imports exceed domestic grain production. In SSA, demand for wheat
and rice grows with income, outpacing domestic production, but many countries continue to supply
most of their demand for other grains through domestic production.
7
International Food Security Assessment, 2019-29, GFA-30
USDA, Economic Research ServiceHow Food Security Is Assessed: Method and Definitions (for more
detailed information on the model, see Appendix A.)
Food demand is projected for 76 low- and middle- income countries—39 in SSA, 4 in North
Africa, 11 in LAC, and 22 in Asia. Food is divided into four groups: (1) the major grain consumed
in the country, (2) other grains, (3) root crops, and (4) all other food. The IFSA model’s projec-
tions of food demand are expressed in grain equivalent based on the caloric content of food
items to allow for aggregation across food groups; this grain equivalent may be expressed in
either kilograms or calories. For example, grains have roughly 3.5 calories per gram, and tubers
have about 1 calorie per gram. One ton of tubers is therefore equivalent to 0.29 ton of grain.
The IFSA model analyzes the gap between projected food demand, which is a function of per
capita income and food prices and a nutritional target of 2,100 calories per capita per day. This
report uses three indicators of food insecurity. The food gap measures the food needed to raise
consumption at every income level to the nutritional target. In many countries, per capita consump-
tion in the lower income deciles is significantly less than per capita consumption for the country
as a whole. In these countries, the distribution gap provides a measure of the intensity of hunger—
the extent to which the food security of already hungry people deteriorates as a result of income
declines or other negative economic conditions. This measure can be expressed on a per capita
basis (in calories per day), or as an aggregate measure (the total tons of food needed to fill the gap
in a particular country).
The second indicator is the share of the population that is food insecure. Food demand is
assumed to be met and equal to consumption. We no longer assess consumption by income
decile, but instead in a continuous manner across all income levels.
Finally, the number of food-insecure people—those who cannot meet the nutritional target—
is based on total population and the population share that consumes below the nutritional target.
Terms commonly used in this report include:
• Food consumption—equal to food demand if we assume that the demand is met.
• Food access—depends on a consumer’s purchasing power. Food access is estimated based
on income level and food prices within each country according to an income-consumption
relationship.
• Food insecurity—occurs when estimated per capita food consumption for a consumer at a
certain income level falls shorts of the nutritional target of 2,100 calories per person per day.
8
International Food Security Assessment, 2019-29, GFA-30
USDA, Economic Research ServiceRegional Overview
The food security indicators and model projections presented here for 2019 and 2029 are based on
historical data and projections from the ERS International Macroeconomic Data Set. The production
data are as of January 2019, so events since then, including droughts and flooding, are not reflected
in these data even though they may have caused crop damage in some countries for example as
induced by Cyclone Idai in March of 2019 in Southern Africa.
Changes in food security vary across regions. In Sub-Saharan Africa, food security is projected to
improve, but slowly, due to rapid population growth and relatively low per capita income growth. SSA
has more food-insecure people than Asia, which is the most populous region. The 22 countries in
Central Asia, East Asia, and Southeast Asia included in this assessment, collectively referred to in this
report as Asia, are projected to see the fastest improvements in food security, as the region’s largest
economies continue to benefit from rapid income growth. The four North African countries assessed
are also projected to experience improvements in food security, though levels of food insecurity
there are relatively low to begin with. In the 11 countries in the Latin America and Caribbean (LAC)
region that are covered by the assessment—5 in Central America, 3 in the Caribbean, and 3 in South
America—the share of population that is food insecure is projected to fall by more than half by 2029.
9
International Food Security Assessment, 2019-29, GFA-30
USDA, Economic Research ServiceSub-Saharan Africa
The Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) region has a population of over 1 billion people. Among the four
regions covered by the assessment, SSA has the largest number and highest share of its popula-
tion food insecure (355 million people, or 35 percent of the population in 2019). Food security is
projected to improve by all three measures used in this report, but by 2029, SSA will still account
for over 70 percent (287 million people) of the food-insecure people in the 76 countries covered
by this assessment. The SSA region has the world’s fastest growing population. Thus, the region’s
projected annual GDP growth of 4 percent only translates to average per capita income growth of 1.6
percent per annum.
West Africa is the largest subregion in SSA in terms of both population and GDP, but the prevalence
of food insecurity is below the regional average, with under 9 percent of the population projected to
be food insecure in 2029. Per capita GDP growth in West Africa is projected to be faster than the
SSA average, as the Nigerian economy picks up steam despite increasing conflict in the Sahel region
(fig. 7). The number of food-insecure people in West Africa is projected to fall 39 percent over the
next 10 years, from 70 million to 43 million.
East Africa is projected to experience similar improvements in food security as West Africa, with
the share of population that is food insecure decreasing by about half over the next 10 years. Per
capita GDP in East Africa is lower than in the SSA region as a whole, but East Africa has faster
annual per capita GDP growth. In 2019, East Africa has the most food-insecure people (142 million)
among SSA subregions; this number is projected to fall to 90 million by 2029.
Central Africa, despite having the smallest population of the 4 subregions in SSA, is projected to
have the largest number of food-insecure people in 2029, increasing 15 percent to 93 million. While
the number of food-insecure people is projected to increase over the next 10 years, due in part to
slow economic growth and inflation in some countries (several countries in Central Africa are not
projected to experience the lower global food prices that are part of the projections), the share of
food-insecure people is projected to fall from 65 percent to 60 percent. This lower share is still the
largest projected share of food-insecure people in 2029 for the regions and subregions covered in
this report, and Central Africa is projected to remain the poorest in terms of per capita GDP as well.
The food security situation in Southern Africa is also projected to improve slowly over the next 10
years, with the pace of improvement influenced by the pace of per capita GDP growth. For the next
10 years, the annual per capita growth rate across Southern Africa countries is projected to be 0.5
percent. This is the slowest per capita GDP growth rate for all IFSA regions and subregions. Despite
having high per capita GDP compared to the SSA average, the large, non-diversified economies in
Southern Africa have struggled to recover from periods of low commodity prices and poor fiscal
policy. The share of food-insecure people is projected to fall from 43 percent to 33 percent over the
next 10 years, while the number of food-insecure people is projected to fall only 1 percent, to 61
million people.
10
International Food Security Assessment, 2019-29, GFA-30
USDA, Economic Research ServiceSSA’s grain production is projected to grow just over 2 percent per year over the next 10 years,
through increased productivity and area expansion. This increase is slower than the increase in both
food and feed demand for grains, which customarily increases with rising population and higher
incomes that allow people to afford more food. This means that SSA’s implied additional supply
required (IASR) for grain is expected to grow over the next decade, from 23 percent of total grain
demand to 32 percent.3
Figure 7
Inflation-adjusted incomes per capita by SSA subregion, 2019 and 2029
$ (2010 U.S.)
2,500
GDP per capita, 2019 GDP per capita, 2029
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
SSA average Central Africa East Africa Southern Africa West Africa
SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa. Note: Value in 2010 U.S. dollars to adjust for inflation.
Source: USDA, Economic Research Service calculations using ERS Macroeconomic Data Set.
3IASR could come from imports or increased production beyond projected levels to provide sufficient food availability to
meet demand. The food gap, on the other hand, is based on a shortfall of projected demand below the nutritional target due to
insufficient purchasing power for lower income populations.
11
International Food Security Assessment, 2019-29, GFA-30
USDA, Economic Research ServiceTable 2
Food security indicators for Sub-Saharan Africa, 2019 and 2029
Implied additional
Year Food grain demand Other grain demand* Grain production supply required**
Million tons
2019 123,902 39,785 125,859 37,828
2029 179,159 49,242 154,614 73,786
*Other grain demand includes seed, feed, waste, and processing.
**The gap between grain demand and domestic grain production.
Source: USDA, Economic Research Service, based on results from the International Food Security Assessment model.
Sub-Saharan Africa indicators of food insecurity
Number of food-insecure people, million Percent of population
400 40
Number food insecure Share food insecure
350 35 Sub-Saharan Africa
300 30 (1 billion people in 2019)
250 25 Sub-Saharan Africa has the
highest share and number of
200 20 food-insecure people, with
355 million food-insecure
150 15 (35% of the population). We
100 10 project a 19-percent reduction
in the number of food-insecure
50 5 people by 2029.
0 0
2019 2029
Source: USDA, Economic Research Service, based on results from the International Food Security
Assessment model.
Population food Population share Food gap
Population insecure food insecure (per capita) Food gap (total)*
2019 2029 2019 2029 2019 2029 2019 2029 2019 2029
Million Million Percent Kcal/day 1,000 MT
Sub-Saharan Africa 1,004 1,273 354.9 286.5 35.3 22.5 509 530 20,919 17,588
Central Africa 125 154 80.5 92.7 64.6 60.1 797 811 7,539 8,836
East Africa 353 446 142.4 90.0 40.3 20.2 445 407 7,458 4,306
Southern Africa 143 187 61.6 60.9 42.9 32.5 450 420 3,246 2,992
West Africa 383 485 70.4 42.9 18.4 8.8 334 298 2,676 1,454
*Measured in grain equivalents.
Source: USDA, Economic Research Service, based on results from the International Food Security Assessment model.
12
International Food Security Assessment, 2019-29, GFA-30
USDA, Economic Research ServiceCentral Africa
The population of the Central African subregion (125 million people) is the most food insecure in
Africa and one of the most food insecure in the world. An estimated 65 percent of the subregion’s
population is food insecure in 2019. Sixty percent of the subregion’s population is projected to be
food insecure by 2029—a modest 5-percent decrease. While not accounted for in the projection
approach, weather shocks, conflict, and political instability, which displace large numbers of people
throughout the region, are expected to be the greatest obstacles to improving food security in Central
Africa as a whole. Ongoing challenges can be reflected in the agricultural and income projections,
but the modeling framework does not account for future crises and therefore must be regarded as a
best-case scenario.
The Republic of Congo (ROC) has a population of 5.2 million people, approximately half of whom
are estimated to be food insecure in 2019. The ROC continues to recover from years of internal
conflict and is currently home to tens of thousands of refugees fleeing conflicts in the neighboring
countries of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DR Congo) and Central African Republic
(CAR), both of which rely heavily on humanitarian assistance. Thirty-three percent of the ROC’s
population is projected to be food insecure by 2029, a 34-percent decline in the share. This improve-
ment in food security is attained via projected growth in annual per capita GDP to $3,000 by 2029.
Cameroon has the region’s lowest share of food insecurity in 2019, at 15 percent of its 26 million
residents. The country retains the lowest share in 2029 as well, despite ongoing internal problems
and conflict disrupting some of its agricultural production. The projections suggest that Cameroon’s
food security will continue to improve in the coming 10 years, with a 59-percent decrease in the
share of the population that is food insecure, to 6 percent in 2029, and a 55-percent decrease in the
total food gap to 55,000 metric tons.
The Central African Republic (CAR) faces one of the most dire food security situations in the
region, with 76 percent of the population estimated as food insecure in 2019. With the Government
and 14 armed groups reaching an accord in February 2019, there is optimism for relief from the
violent conflict that has exacerbated food insecurity in the CAR. This optimism extends into the
coming decade, with a projected 36-percent decrease in the share of food insecure (to 48 percent) by
2029. The per capita food gap is also projected to decrease, from 570 calories in 2019 to 418 calories
per day in 2029.
The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DR Congo) is estimated to be the most food-insecure
country in the Central African subregion and one of the most food insecure-countries in the world,
with an estimated 80 percent of its population (70 million people) food insecure in 2019. Food inse-
curity in the DR Congo is projected to see no significant improvement in the coming decade; by
2029, the DR Congo is projected to be the most food-insecure country in the world. The outlook is
greatly diminished due to rampant political instability, recurrent Ebola outbreaks, persistent armed
conflict, poor infrastructure hindering humanitarian intervention, and large displaced populations;
all of these factors contribute to market disruptions and poor access to agricultural land.
13
International Food Security Assessment, 2019-29, GFA-30
USDA, Economic Research ServiceReferences
Cameroon. 2019. Country Economic Forecast: Cameroon. Oxford, Feb.
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, World Food Programme. 2019. FAO/
WFP Crop and Food Security Assessment Mission to the Central African Republic, Special
Report. March.
Tandon, S., M. Landes, C. Christensen, S. LeGrand, N. Broussard, K. Farrin, and K. Thome, 2017.
Progress and Challenges in Global Food Security. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic
Research Service, EIB-175, July.
USAID. 2019a. “Food Assistance Fact Sheet—Democratic Republic of the Congo.” Feb. 15.
USAID. 2019b. “Food Assistance Fact Sheet—Republic of the Congo.” March 25.
U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service 2019. International Macroeconomic
Data Set.
14
International Food Security Assessment, 2019-29, GFA-30
USDA, Economic Research ServiceTable 3
Food security indicators for Central (SSA) Africa, 2019 and 2029
Implied additional
Year Food grain demand Other grain demand* Grain production supply required**
1,000 tons
2019 6,130 1,878 5,572 2,435
2029 8,269 2,186 6,735 3,720
*Other grain demand includes seed, feed, waste, and processing.
**The gap between grain demand and domestic grain production.
Source: USDA, Economic Research Service, based on results from the International Food Security Assessment model.
Central Africa indicators of food insecurity
Central Africa
Number of food-insecure people, million Percent of population (125 million people in 2019)
100 70
Share food insecure Central Africa continues to be
the most food insecure region
60 within SSA and the only one
80
where the number of food-
Number food insecure 50 insecure people is projected
60 to increase, albeit at a slower
40 rate than population growth
which is reflected in projec-
40 30 tions for a small decline in
the share of food insecure
20 people.
20
10 Ongoing conflict in much of
the region leads to disrup-
0 0 tions in food production and
2019 2029 internally displaced persons,
adding to problems resulting
Source: USDA, Economic Research Service, based on results from the International Food from disease outbreaks and
Security Assessment model. insufficient infrastructure.
Population food Population share Food gap
Population insecure food insecure (per capita) Food gap (total)*
2019 2029 2019 2029 2019 2029 2019 2029 2019 2029
Million Million Percent Kcal/day 1,000 MT
Central Africa 125 154 80.5 92.7 64.6 60.1 797 811 7,539 8,836
Cameroon 26 34 3.8 2.0 14.6 6.0 268 227 123 55
Central African Republic 6 7 4.5 3.5 76.0 48.2 570 418 291 166
Congo 5 7 2.6 2.1 50.3 32.9 415 347 129 89
Congo, DR 87 107 69.6 85.1 79.8 79.6 864 862 6,996 8,526
*Measured in grain equivalents.
Source: USDA, Economic Research Service, based on results from the International Food Security Assessment model.
15
International Food Security Assessment, 2019-29, GFA-30
USDA, Economic Research ServiceEast Africa
In the East African countries included in this assessment, an estimated 40 percent of the population
is food insecure in 2019. This figure masks dramatic differences across countries. In several coun-
tries (Burundi, Chad, Eritrea, Somalia, and Sudan), half or more of the population is food insecure,
while in others (Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Uganda), the food-insecure share is signif-
icantly smaller. The subregion is projected to cut its food insecurity share by half by 2029, when
only one country—Burundi—is projected to have more than half of its population food insecure,
and the share food insecure in both Kenya and Ethiopia is projected to drop to 7 percent. While the
prevalence of food insecurity in East Africa declines significantly, the depth of food insecurity, as
measured by the distribution gap, falls by only 7 percent. Again, there are significant cross-country
differences, with two countries essentially not reducing the gap (Burundi and Somalia) and three
countries (Eritrea, Ethiopia, and Kenya) reducing the caloric gap by 30 percent or more.
In most of East Africa, food production in 2018 recovered from weather- and pest-related challenges
of the previous year. As a result, emergency food assistance needs in most countries declined in 2019,
although refugees and internally displaced people continue to be in need of assistance (FSIN, 2019).
Drivers of projected improvements in food security include strong growth in per capita GDP and
sustained low food prices; both of these factors increase grain demand significantly. Real per capita
growth in GDP for the East Africa subregion during the coming decade is projected to be 2.7 percent,
slightly below the 3-percent growth seen during 2013-18. However, two countries—Somalia and
Burundi—are significant outliers to this pattern, with projected growth rates of just 0.2 percent and
-0.7 percent, respectively. Two other countries—Ethiopia and Kenya—have projected growth rates (4.7
percent and 3.8 percent, respectively) that are much higher than the average for the subregion.
Most countries in the East Africa subregion are projected to see cereal prices decline by less than
1 percent per year between 2019 and 2029, well below the annual declines (from 2.5 percent to 7.0
percent) experienced during the previous 5 years. Three countries—Chad, Eritrea, and Sudan—are
projected to see cereal prices decline by more than 1 percent per annum in the coming decade.
Food grain demand per capita is projected to grow by 19 percent in the coming decade, reflecting
positive real per capita GDP growth and low prices for agricultural commodities. However, because
population growth remains high, aggregate food grain demand increases by 50 percent, with the
highest growth occurring in Uganda and Ethiopia. As a result, projected demand growth in the East
Africa subregion outstrips production growth as indicated by a projected implied additional supply
required (IASR) that more than doubles over the projection period. Meeting projected demand will
require a substantial increase in imports.
Five East African countries have a majority of their population food insecure. In five countries in
East Africa—Burundi, Chad, Eritrea, Somalia, and Sudan—more than half the population is food
insecure in 2019. Moreover, these five countries are projected to remain the five most food-insecure
countries in East Africa in 2029. Burundi and Somalia are projected to undergo essentially no
change in the share of the population that is food insecure by 2029, while the remaining three coun-
tries are projected to reduce this share in the coming decade.
With 70 percent of its population food insecure in 2019, Burundi is one of East Africa’s most food-
insecure countries. This small, landlocked country is mostly rural. Deforestation and its environ-
mental consequences are a major problem. High population density and low cereal yields (reflecting
poor soil fertility and lack of inputs) constrain domestic agricultural production. Moreover, Burundi
16
International Food Security Assessment, 2019-29, GFA-30
USDA, Economic Research Serviceis forecast to have negative per capita GDP growth over the next decade, following negative growth
during 2013-18. Without growth in the agricultural sector or in the national economy as a whole,
Burundi is projected to make little improvement in food security, leaving 68.5 percent of its popula-
tion food insecure in 2029.
Somalia has 50 percent of its population food insecure in 2019 and is projected to have almost the same
level of food insecurity—48.3 percent—in 2029. The country’s real annual per capita GDP growth rate
is projected to decline from 0.7 percent during 2013-18 to 0.2 percent over the coming decade. Persistent
conflict continues to weaken the Somalian economy. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the
United Nations (FAO) and the World Food Program (WFP) identify Somalia as one of 8 conflict-caused
food security emergencies (FAO and WFP, 2019). International food assistance is significant as parts of
the country face emergency conditions despite improved harvests in 2018.
Eritrea is East Africa’s most food insecure country in 2019, with over 90 percent of its population
food insecure, even though Eritrea, like most other countries in the subregion, saw favorable levels
of cereal production in 2018 (FAO, Country Brief: Eritrea, 2018). Even with a projected annual
increase in real per capita GDP of 1.9 percent during the coming decade, 75 percent of the Eritrean
population will still be food insecure in 2029. However, the intensity of food security in Eritrea is
projected to decline significantly, with the per capita food gap closing from 803 calories in 2019 to
511 calories in 2029.
Chad has an estimated 61 percent of its population food insecure in 2019, but this share is projected
to decrease to 46.5 percent by 2029. Chad is forecast to have real annual per capita GDP growth of
1.9 percent during 2019-29, following negative growth during the previous 5 years. Economic growth
increased following the Glencore debt renegotiation of February 2018 and substantial inflows of
external financing (African Development Bank, 2019). Conflict with Boko Haram in the Lake Chad
Basin continues to affect food security in western Chad (USAID, Lake Chad Basin Fact Sheets).
The ERS modeling framework does not capture these kinds of causes of acute food insecurity. The
modeling framework is better suited to capture chronic food insecurity arising from low income levels
and/or high food prices.
In Sudan, 56.8 percent of the population is food insecure in 2019. By 2029, this share is projected
to decline to about 30 percent, with a 24-percent reduction in the per capita food gap. Sudan’s real
annual per capita GDP growth rate is projected to decline from 2.4 percent during 2013-18 to 1.8
percent over the coming decade. Food prices, rising sharply since the fall of 2017, became a political
issue in Sudan. Higher fuel and input prices—reflecting foreign currency shortages, a weak local
currency, and high inflation—led to rising cereal prices from late 2017 through March 2019, despite
increased production (FAO, GIEWS, 2019). FAO reported that in February 2019, prices of sorghum,
millet, and wheat grain were at near-record highs up to twice what they were a year ago (FAO,
GIEWS, 2019). Higher food prices were a reason cited by demonstrators in protests that subse-
quently led to a change in government in April 2019.
Significant improvements in food security are projected for faster growing countries. Growth in real
per capita GDP combined with low food prices drives projected improvements in food security for
the remaining countries in the East Africa subregion. All countries reduce the prevalence of food
insecurity, with Ethiopia, Kenya, and Uganda also reducing its intensity.
17
International Food Security Assessment, 2019-29, GFA-30
USDA, Economic Research ServiceEthiopia has 33 percent of its population food insecure in 2019 and is projected to have only 7
percent of its population projected to be food insecure in 2029. Ethiopia is also projected to decrease
its per capita food gap by over 30 percent by 2029, significantly reducing both the intensity of
food security and its prevalence. In 2018, Ethiopia’s cereal production recovered from the drought-
reduced levels of 2017, but the lingering effects of the drought still affected livestock production to
some extent (FSIN, 2019). Real per capita income in Ethiopia is projected to increase at an annual
rate of 4.7 percent between 2019 and 2029, the highest projected rate of income growth in the East
African subregion.
Kenya has an estimated 29 percent of its population food insecure in 2019, the lowest in the East
African subregion. Kenya is projected to have 6.6 percent of its people food insecure by 2029.
Maize production recovered from the significantly reduced level of 2017, and adequate supplies of
maize were available in the country’s markets in 2018. Drought conditions improved, although some
pastoral populations in the northern and eastern parts of the country remain in need of emergency
food assistance (FSIN, 2019). Kenya is also projected to reduce its per capita food gap by 29 percent
over the next 10 years, thus reducing the intensity of food security as well as its prevalence. Kenya
is projected to have real per capita growth of 3.8 percent per annum over the next decade, slightly
above its average for the previous 5 years.
Almost 40 percent of Uganda’s population is food insecure in 2019, but this share is projected to
decrease to 18 percent by 2029. Uganda is also projected to reduce the intensity of food insecurity,
as the per capita food gap declines by 20 percent. Uganda’s real per capita GDP is projected to grow
at 2.7 percent per year, up from 1.6 percent during the previous 5 years. However, Uganda still has
emergency food security needs due to the large number of refugees in the country, many of whom
are from South Sudan and the DRC.
In Rwanda, 32.8 percent of the population is food insecure in 2019; this share is projected to decline
to 13.7 percent by 2029. Rwanda is projected to experience real annual per capita GDP growth of 3
percent between 2019 and 2029, down from 4.4 percent between 2013 and 2018.
About 37 percent of Tanzania’s population is food insecure in 2019. Tanzania’s real annual per
capita GDP growth rate is projected to decline from 3.9 percent during 2013-18 to 2.0 percent during
2019-29. The share of the population that is food insecure is projected to decline as well, but only
about 10 percent—less than the average for the subregion—leaving 26.4 percent of the population
food insecure by 2029. Tanzania’s per capita food gap is projected to decline by the same percentage
over the coming decade.
References
African Development Bank (AfDB). 2019. African Economic Outlook 2019.
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Global Information and Early Warning
System (FAO, GIEWS). 2019. Country Briefs: Sudan, March 29.
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Global Information and Early Warning
System (FAO, GIEWS). 2018. Country Briefs: Eritrea, October 25.
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and World Food Program (WFP).
2019. Monitoring Food Security in Countries with Conflict Situations: A joint FAO/WFP Update
for the United Nations Security Council. Issue 5. January.
Food Security Information Network (FSIN). 2019. 2019 Global Report on Food Crises: Joint
Analysis for Better Decisions, April.
U.S. Agency for International Development. 2019. Lake Chad Basin Complex Emergency Fact Sheets.
18
International Food Security Assessment, 2019-29, GFA-30
USDA, Economic Research ServiceTable 4
Food security indicators for East (SSA) Africa, 2019 and 2029
Implied additional
Year Food grain demand Other grain demand* Grain production supply required**
1,000 tons
2019 42,898 15,891 49,560 9,228
2029 64,415 16,974 59,872 21,517
*Other grain demand includes seed, feed, waste, and processing.
**The gap between grain demand and domestic grain production.
Source: USDA, Economic Research Service, based on results from the International Food Security Assessment model.
East Africa indicators of food insecurity
Number of food-insecure people, million Percent of population
160 45
Number food insecure Share food insecure East Africa
140 40 (353 million people in 2019)
120 35 The region includes countries
with more than half of their
30
100 populations food insecure as
25 well as well as other countries
80 with food insecurity shares
20 closer to 30 percent. Except
60 for Burundi and Somalia
15
income growth is projected to
40 10 be relatively strong over the
20 next ten years.
5
0 0
2019 2029
Source: USDA, Economic Research Service, based on results from the International Food Security
Assessment model.
Population food Population share Food gap
Population insecure food insecure (per capita) Food gap (total)*
2019 2029 2019 2029 2019 2029 2019 2029 2019 2029
Million Million Percent Kcal/day 1,000 MT
East Africa 353 446 142.4 90.0 40.3 20.2 445 407 7,458 4,306
Burundi 12 17 8.6 11.5 70.4 68.5 516 505 518 673
Chad 13 15 7.7 6.9 61.1 46.5 679 589 643 505
Eritrea 6 7 5.8 5.0 96.4 74.5 803 511 580 319
Ethiopia 111 145 36.5 10.1 32.7 7.0 346 240 1,396 268
Kenya 49 56 14.3 3.7 29.1 6.6 311 223 530 98
Rwanda 12 15 4.1 2.0 32.8 13.7 399 316 190 74
Somalia 12 15 5.8 7.1 50.1 48.3 488 479 322 389
Sudan 39 46 21.9 13.9 56.8 30.4 470 359 1,248 602
Tanzania 57 74 21.1 19.6 37.0 26.4 479 429 1,137 944
Uganda 42 57 16.7 10.2 39.6 18.0 450 354 895 432
*Measured in grain equivalents.
Source: USDA, Economic Research Service, based on results from the International Food Security Assessment model.
19
International Food Security Assessment, 2019-29, GFA-30
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