CA-07 Garin-Hart-Yang For House Majority PAC (Sept. 2014)

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GARINHARTYANG

RESEARCH GROUP
1724 Connecti cut Avenue, N.W.
Washi ngt on, DC 20009
Tel : (202) 234-5570
Fax: (202) 232-8134
M E M O R A N D U M
TO: House Majority PAC
FROM: Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group
DATE: September 22, 2014
RE: Congressman Bera leads in CA 07

Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group conducted a tracking poll of 406 likely voters in the CA
7
th
from September 17-18, and found a race in which Ami Bera leads former
Congressman Doug Ose by 4 points, 47% to 43%.
Doctor Bera has begun to consolidate his strength of support as well. Nearly two thirds
of Beras supporters say that they support him strongly (61%), compared to only 36% of
Doug Oses current supporters. Doctor Beras positive to negative rating is also
outperforming Doug Oses by 12 points, and nearly half of voters either dont know
Ose (25%), or have not yet formed an opinion about him (23%).
Governor Jerry Brown is running strongly in this swing district. Fifty-six percent
of likely voters support Brown, compared to only 37% who say they would vote for Neel
Kashkari.
President Obamas job performance is underwater. Only 9% of voters believe the
President is doing an excellent job, and another 38% say his performance is good.
The majority 52% believe he is doing not so good or poor.
The polls partisan breakdown is +2 Republican, with 40% Democrat, 42% Republican
and 18% Decline to State or minor-party. In a conservative estimate of 2014 minority
turnout, 82% of respondents are Caucasian, 10% are Latino, and 6% are African
American. MOE is +/- 4.7 percentage points.

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