Climate Change and Prosperity UK REPORT
Climate Change and Prosperity UK REPORT
Climate Change and Prosperity UK REPORT
I believe man-made climate change is one of the most serious threats that this country
and this world face.
David Cameron, UK Prime Minister, February 20141
Climate change is a fact. And when our childrens children look us in the eye and ask
if we did all we could to leave them a safer, more stable world, with new sources of
energy, I want us to be able to say yes, we did.
Barack Obama, US President, January 20142
Time is running out and with each passing month, year and decade the ecological debt
of future generations is mounting higher and higher.
Narendra Modi, Prime Minister of India, December 20103
Fostering a sound ecological environment is vital for peoples lives and the future of
our nation. Smog is affecting larger parts of China and environmental pollution has
become a major problem, which is natures red-light warning against the model of
inefficient and blind development. We must strengthen protection of the ecological
environment and resolve to take forceful measures to complete this challenging task
We will declare war against pollution and fight it with the same determination we
battled poverty.
Li Keqiang, Chinese Premier, March 20144
Are we willing to let another decade slip away, standing idly by as the worlds most
vulnerable countries and people, including my own, fight a losing battle against the
king tides and typhoons of a warmer world? Or will we instead stand together and say
we are ready to embrace a carbon-free future, and to do it today?
Christopher J. Loeak, President, Republic of the Marshall Islands, July 20145
Dont get left behind. Dont be on the losing side of history Let us take advantage
of the opportunities presented by climate action and lay the foundations for a more
prosperous and secure future for all.
Ban Ki-moon, UN Secretary General, May 20146
Contents
Ministerial foreword
Executive summary
10
24
Chapter three: Global progress since Copenhagen more action urgently required
35
47
Glossary
61
Endnotes
62
2 Paris 2015
Ministerial foreword
Our climate is changing we are already feeling the impact with more extreme weather
events and shifting climate patterns. These changes are being driven by human activity. If
the world carries on the same course then many countries will suffer the consequences
flooding, coastal erosion, desertification, food and water shortages, the migration of millions
of people fleeing the most affected regions. The risks dont just relate to our environment
and ecosystems, but to the health of communities and the economic and political stability of
many countries. In a worst case scenario, the results would be globally catastrophic.
We know that the risks will become more severe as
the temperature increases. We also know that the
longer we wait to take action, the harder and more
expensive it will be to change course. So we need
to see action now. The governments of the world
have agreed that we should limit global warming to
a maximum of 2C above pre-industrial levels so we
can avoid the worst climate change impacts. The
UK already has legally binding targets to reduce our
emissions up to 2050, and these are in line with the
2C limit. But climate change is a global threat. Just
as all countries will be affected by climate change
regardless of their own levels of greenhouse gas
emissions now or in the past all must participate if
we are to solve the problem.
Many countries and businesses are already making
changes that will result in lower emissions. They
are motivated by energy security, efficiency, health
and sustainability concerns, as well as the risks and
costs of climate change itself. And these changes
are making a difference. But the action we are
seeing across the world is not enough to keep
us within the 2C limit. We need a mechanism to
increase ambition and provide confidence that we
are all moving in the same direction.
Next year in Paris in December we have the
opportunity to put this in place. The world will
come together to forge a deal on climate change
that should, for the first time ever, include binding
commitments to reduce emissions from all
countries. The right deal also has the potential to
4 Paris 2015
Executive summary
In 15 months, the world will gather in Paris to secure a legally binding, global climate
change agreement with emission reduction commitments from all countries for the
first time ever. It will require courage, determination and ingenuity to deliver, building
on years of hard work. It is not just governments who want an agreement; there is
widespread support from businesses, NGOs and campaign groups, both in the UK and
internationally. A Paris 2015 agreement will create the vital framework the world needs to
keep the global goal of limiting average global temperature increases to below 2C within
reach, and avoid the worst impacts of climate change.
A global climate agreement is unquestionably
in the UKs and the entire global communitys,
interests. The prospects of securing a successful
global climate agreement next year have never
been better. This document explains why. It
considers:
the latest climate science on risks and impacts,
many of which we are already seeing today;
the benefits of low-carbon action for our
prosperity, security and well-being, showcasing
many leading businesses in the UK who are
already realising the commercial gains of
climate action;
the gap in global emission reduction efforts to
date which only a global agreement can close;
the recent progress in global climate action,
demonstrating that whilst much more is needed
a global climate agreement is now within reach;
the path to an agreement in Paris and beyond,
what a successful agreement looks like, and
how to deliver it.
Chapter one
Avoiding climate bust
the case for action
The recent assessment from the Inter-Governmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) demonstrates the
overwhelming scientific evidence that climate
change is happening and that it is extremely
likely that man-made emissions of greenhouse
gases (GHGs) are the dominant cause:
Average global temperatures have risen by
0.85 since 1880 and we are already seeing
the effects. In many regions rainfall patterns
have changed, glaciers are shrinking, corals
are declining and some species have become
extinct.
Without significant and sustained global
action, climate change poses great risks
to human health, global food security, and
economic development.
We cannot undo the warming from past
emissions but we can control the levels of
future warming in the decades to come.
Depending on how we act now, average global
temperatures could be limited to under 2C or
rise by 4.5C or more by the end of this century,
relative to pre-industrial levels.
Even warming of 2C will see considerable
impacts in some areas. Increases of 4C or
more are expected to lead to much greater
and wider impacts.
6 Paris 2015
Chapter two
UK climate action
the benefits of action
There is a strong UK political consensus that
climate change is a major threat to our future
prosperity, security and well-being, so we must
play our full part in meeting the 2C goal. But
action to tackle it must go hand-in-hand with
securing long-term and sustainable growth. In the
UK we are developing the necessary cost-effective
policies, tools, technologies and businesses to
deliver this.
But if we are to limit emissions at scale, ensure the
transition is cost effective, and that countries are
not disadvantaged by taking action, this transition
needs to happen globally. A global agreement on
climate change in Paris next year can underpin this
transition by:
Providing the policy confidence needed
for international investment in low-carbon
infrastructure and innovation, and energy
efficiency;
Ensuring that action is cost-effective, at the scale
necessary, creating a more level playing field and
securing future economic prosperity for all;
Setting the world on a low-carbon pathway,
and avoiding locking us into a high-carbon,
high-cost future.
The UK is taking action to build a competitive,
low-carbon and resilient economy:
The Climate Change Act (2008):
The worlds first long-term, legally-binding
national framework for reducing emissions,
setting five-year carbon budgets to cut UK
emissions by 80% by 2050.
The Green Investment Bank (GIB):
Committed 1.4 billion since 201213 helping
to mobilise 4.9 billion of funding for the UKs
green economy.
Low-carbon Electricity Market:
Market reforms in the Energy Act 2013 are
creating the worlds first low-carbon electricity
market. UK renewable electricity generation has
doubled since 2010 reaching almost 20% so far
this year and attracting a record of nearly
8 billion of investment last year.
Chapter three
Global progress since Copenhagen
more action urgently required
The world has moved on from questioning
whether climate change exists. Climate change
is almost universally recognised as a serious threat
to global prosperity, security and well-being. The
world is not asking if we need to tackle climate
change, but how. Over 90 countries, covering
80% of global emissions, have pledged to cut their
emissions by 2020 under the Copenhagen Accord.
However, we are now playing catch-up. By
2020, global emissions are on track to be well
above the cost-effective pathway to 2C. This
emissions reduction gap is likely to be between
8 and 12 Gt of CO2e and will only grow without
action to tackle them.
Further effort at all levels in the period up to 2020
and beyond will be vital. However, progress
seen since 2009 has been considerable and
does mean that a global agreement is now
within reach.
First, national climate change legislation and
carbon pricing mechanisms are spreading:
Almost 500 climate laws have been passed in
66 of the worlds largest emitting countries.
About 40 national and over 20 sub-national
jurisdictions are now putting a price on carbon
and the number of national or regional carbon
markets is increasing steadily.
8 Paris 2015
Chapter four
To Paris 2015 and beyond
the action we need
We need a new global agreement. Paris in 2015
presents the opportunity to agree, for the first
time ever, a legally binding deal in which all 195
countries in the UNFCCC take on commitments to
reduce their emissions. The UK is at the forefront
of helping to shape and deliver this agreement.
We have much to do before Paris and challenging
negotiations ahead, with key milestones over the
next 15 months. Paris will not be the end of the
road, but it can be a huge step forward on which
we can build further in future years.
We need a global climate agreement to:
Drive-up ambition levels across all parties,
steering the world back toward the 2C path;
Trigger the economies of scale and level of
investment needed;
Reinforce confidence and trust that all countries
are acting in line with their commitments;
Ensure that support is in place for those whose
need it, and to help all countries, especially the
worlds poorest and most vulnerable to develop
climate resilience.
The UKs vision of a successful global climate
agreement includes three key components:
i Ambitious and fair commitments from all
countries to reduce emissions
The new agreement should involve:
Credible and fair emission reduction
commitments from all countries, keeping the
2C goal within reach. Commitments should
reflect a range of factors such as GDP,
mitigation potential and contributions to past
and future climate change. Some countries
can make rapid reductions now. Others need
to start slowly while some will need their
emissions to grow before they fall.
The most advanced economies making the
most ambitious commitments, reflecting their
responsibilities and capacities. For the G7
and others this should be consistent with their
existing pledge to cut aggregate emissions by
at least 80% by 2050. Thats why the UK is
pushing the EU to set a benchmark early, by
10 Paris 2015
Chapter one
Avoiding climate bust
the case for action
The recent assessment from the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
provides overwhelming scientific evidence that climate change is happening and that
it is extremely likely that man-made emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) are the
dominant cause. Acting now gives the world a fighting chance of limiting the average
global temperature rise to 2C. But acting now also makes good economic sense:
delaying climate action will mean having to cut global emissions further and faster in the
future, through more aggressive and interventionist policies, which will result in greater
costs for households and businesses.
greater levels of warming, as illustrated in
figure 1. Measurements of historic temperature
change indicate the long-term rates of global
warming associated with warming of 4.5C or
more are faster than those experienced over
the last 2000 years. Such a projected rate
of warming over the 21st century would be
unprecedented in the experience of modern
human society and likely to present a major
adaptation challenge.
Figure 1:
Changes in average surface temperature 19862005 to 20812100 for an ambitious mitigation
scenario (RCP2.6) and a continued emissions growth scenario (RCP8.5) (Source: IPCC)13
RPC 2.6
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
RPC 8.5
1.5
11
(C)
12 Paris 2015
Figure 2:
As the temperature increases, the risks and
impacts grow14
Global mean
temperature change
(C relative to
1986-2005)
Global mean
temperature change
(C relative to
1950-1900 as an
approximation of
preindustrial levels)
5
5
LARGE-SCALE
SINGULAR
EVENTS
GLOBAL
AGGREGATE
IMPACTS
DISTRIBUTION OF
IMPACTS
EXTREME
WEATHER
EVENTS
UNIQUE &
THREATENED
SYSTEMS
UNDETECTABLE
MODERATE
HIGH
VERY HIGH
14 Paris 2015
Impacts on food
production and fisheries
Even here in the UK, we have seen how
vulnerable farming is to extreme weather
events. Global action on climate change
is essential, through an international
agreement which takes agriculture into
consideration and which is based on
strong scientific evidence. I know that
our farmers are already taking action
to reduce their emissions through a
Greenhouse Gas Action Plan and by
exporting low-carbon energy to other
sectors of the economy.
Meurig Raymond, President, National
Farmers Union, September 201421
Climate change-related impacts are
already reducing crop yields in some parts
of the world, a trend projected to continue as
temperatures rise further, leading to large risks
to global and regional food security. Crops
affected include staples such as wheat, maize
and rice. Climate change is also projected
to increase price volatility for agricultural
commodities.
Changes in farming practices, such as
using new crop varieties can help farmers
adapt to the impacts of climate change, but
there is a limit to what can be managed.
For regions closest to the equator, this will be
increasingly difficult at temperature increases
of 3C or more. Yields of maize and wheat will
begin to decline with 12 of local warming
in the tropics. Temperate maize and tropical
rice yields will be significantly affected with
warming of 35.
On a global scale, projected impacts on
fisheries and aquaculture are negative,
with displacement of stocks already observed.
Rising temperatures and acidification of the
oceans are partly to blame for the rapid decline
of coral reef ecosystems which risks the
potential collapse of some coastal fisheries.
Impacts on livelihoods
and incomes
Oxfam is gravely concerned
by the impacts of climate
change on poor peoples
access to food, as it is already
reducing yields of key crops
and making prices more
volatile, harming those on
lowest incomes first and
foremost. On current trends,
there will be 25 million more
malnourished children by the
middle of the century. Without
urgent new commitments
to action, climate change
threatens to roll back decades
of progress in the fight against
poverty and hunger.
Mark Goldring,
Chief Executive Officer, Oxfam,
September 201422
Climate change impacts
are projected to slow down
economic growth and make
poverty reduction more
difficult. Economic activity and
jobs will be disrupted by the
effects of climate change on
specific sectors, but also by
its effects on the infrastructure
that helps the entire economy
to function. In poor countries,
in particular, there is evidence
that higher temperatures have
wide-ranging effects, reducing
both agricultural and industrial
output.23
Rural livelihoods are
particularly at risk, including
from insufficient access
to drinking and irrigation
water, reduced agricultural
productivity and loss of
ecosystems and the services
they provide for livelihoods.
Impacts on health
Impacts on security
16 Paris 2015
Figure 3:
UK regional climate change risks38
Source: Defra,
UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2012
MARINE
SCOTLAND
NORTH
EAST
NORTHERN
IRELAND
NORTH
WEST
YORKSHIRE
AND HUMBER
MARINE
EAST
MIDLANDS
EAST OF
ENGLAND
WALES
LONDON
SOUTH EAST
SOUTH WEST
MARINE
KEY
SCOTLAND
NORTH EAST
SOUTH EAST
NORTHERN
IRELAND
YORKSHIRE
AND HUMBER Humber estuary, habitats, urban areas, industry,
EAST
MIDLANDS
EAST OF
ENGLAND
LONDON
NORTH WEST
WEST
MIDLANDS
WALES
SOUTH WEST
18 Paris 2015
20 Paris 2015
Unilever
Unilever is one of the worlds leading suppliers
of food, home and personal care products with
sales in over 190 countries totalling 49.8 billion in
2013. The company believes that, left unchecked,
climate change has the potential to become
a significant barrier to its growth strategy. As
scarcity and volatility continue to increase prices
of raw materials, businesses will see increased
pressure on profit margins, reducing growth and
their ability to invest.
Unilevers ambition is to double the size
of its business, whilst reducing its overall
environmental footprint (including sourcing,
consumer use and disposal) and increasing
its positive social impact. The company is
committed to sourcing all its agricultural raw
materials sustainably by 2020, and decoupling
its growth from its environmental impact.
Through the Unilever Sustainable Living Plan,
it has found that it can drive business growth,
competitive advantage, and differentiation while
also reducing costs.
The company is already seeing the effects
of climate change on its bottom line. Climate
change will also affect Unilevers customers.
Seven of Unilevers biggest markets are already
categorised as water scarce. In India it is
predicted that there will be water availability gaps
of 45% to 90% by 2020. This affects farmers
crops, but also peoples ability to wash their
clothes or clean their houses as they would
like. Unilever is developing new products that
require less water, allowing people to adapt to
environmental changes, and the company to
remain profitable in a changing world.
22 Paris 2015
Figure 4:
Sectors of the UK economy are exposed to climate change risks overseas
Source: CCC ASC/University of Leeds49
30
25
20
15
10
5
Energy
Transport
Wearing apparel
Communication
Electronic equipment
Transport nec
Air transport
Gas
Electricity
Other
Notes: The figure shows the percentage of the total GVA for goods and services consumed in the UK arising in countries assessed as
being more exposed or vulnerable to climate impacts than others. The goods and services listed are intended to align with those included
in the calculation of the Consumer Prices Index (CPI). Together the goods and services shown form about 20% of total GVA from UK
consumption. The risk assessment for countries is based on a number of indicators (see main text). Countries have been ranked according
to their average risk score, and then divided into quintiles. The share of total GVA generated in the countries at highest risk (5th quintile),
higher risk (4th quintile) and moderate risk (3rd quintile) are shown. Adjustments to some regions were made to reflect similarities in their
average risk score. For example, the four advanced Asian economies of Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore and South Korea were aggregated
to a group as they consistently were within the first quintile of countries at risk, unlike other Asian economies. As an example, the figure
shows that approximately 12% of total GVA for electronic equipment bought in the UK is generated in countries which are assessed as
being at moderate risk of climate impacts (ie. in the third quintile of all countries). nec means not elsewhere classified.
Figure 5:
Comparison of early and late action emission trajectories
Source: Ampere project53
80
70
60
50
40
Lack of near-term
reductions
30
20
10
0
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
GHG emission pathways necessary to stay within the budget for limiting warming to 2 above pre-industrial levels.
The optimal emission pathway with immediate action is shown in green and the emission pathway needed if strong
international action is delayed until 2030 is shown in red. The emission pathway with no climate policy is shown in grey.
24 Paris 2015
Chapter two
UK climate action
the benefits of action
There is a strong UK political consensus that climate change is one of the greatest
threats to our future prosperity, security and well-being; and action to tackle it must
go hand-in-hand with securing long-term and sustainable economic growth. In the
UK we are developing cost-effective policies, tools, technologies and businesses to
deliver this. A prosperous and thriving green economy can generate the investment,
innovation, skills and entrepreneurship needed to transform our products and
services. This will help us develop cleaner technologies, and capture new international
markets, allowing us to reduce emissions and capitalise on the opportunities. There
are wider benefits of taking climate action too to our energy security and our quality
of life. But a low-carbon transition will be most cost-effective, and deliver maximum
benefits, if all countries act together. A Paris 2015 agreement can reduce emissions
and create huge economic opportunities for the UK and around the world.
Decarbonisation and securing long-term
prosperity go hand-in-hand
2.1 There are strong arguments for taking
26 Paris 2015
Figure 6:
Percentage of UK greenhouse gas
emissions by sector in 2012
4 21
10
35
13
15
20
Sector
Energy Supply
Transport
Business
Residential
Agriculture
Waste
Public
Industrial Processes
Shale gas
Shale gas is a new potential energy resource
that could play an important part in the
UKs energy mix during the transition to a
low-carbon economy boosting our energy
security, jobs and growth, as they have
done in the US. It also has great potential
to displace significant amounts of coal as
an energy source in the UK and globally to
reduce global emissions. An international
climate change deal that sets limits on GHG
emissions would help to ensure that new
energy sources, such as shale gas could
play a role in reducing global emissions.
28 Paris 2015
Figure 7:
Summary of potential of innovation up to 2050 for all TINA technologies
(cumulative, discounted)77
It is shown as the leading central estimate followed by a low to high range in brackets.
Technology
Bioenergy
42bn (6101bn)
19bn (633bn
22bn (1045bn)
8bn (316bn)
Domestic Buildings
16bn (4.537.5bn)
1.7bn (0.63.7bn)
Electricity Networks
4.4bn (28.6bn)
5.1bn (37.9bn)
Electricity Storage
4.6bn (1.910.1bn)
11.5bn (3.425.7bn)
Heat
30bn (1466bn)
6bn (212bn)
35.7bn (088.7bn)
20.2bn (048.1bn)
Industrial Sector
20.3bn (14.426.9bn)
3.9bn (1.56.5bn)
1.2bn (02bn)
0.3bn (01.3bn)
Marine wave
1.6bn (03bn)
0.9bn (03bn)
Non-domestic Buildings
12.6bn (3.923.8bn)
1.7bn (05.3bn)
Nuclear Fission
5.7bn (214.5bn)
7.2bn (1.513bn)
Offshore Wind
45bn (1880bn)
18bn (735bn)
UK low-carbon SMEs
Many small firms rely on exporting to
emerging markets so an ambitious global
agreement in Paris 2015 would help to
unlock further opportunities in areas like
low-carbon R&D, products and services,
energy efficiency, and innovation in
renewable energy technology. Small
businesses are driving growth, so any
deal must ensure that the UK remains a
competitive place to do business, ensuring
that affordable, resilient and innovative
sources of energy are available to all.
John Allan, National Chairman, Federation of
Small Businesses (FSB), September 201478
SMEs are playing a leading role in driving
low-carbon job creation, revenue growth and
innovation. UK SMEs in the low-carbon sector
are outperforming their peers in other fields. For
instance, around 45% are already exporting,
compared to a benchmark of around 20% for
SMEs as a whole, and they are more likely to
have expanding workforces than the average
SME. Low-carbon SMEs that export to overseas
markets are more than twice as likely to have
increased their revenues in the last two years
compared to SMEs across all sectors. They are
also more innovative.79
Exporting low-carbon goods Xeros
Founded in 2006 in Sheffield, Xeros has
developed a new and unique way of cleaning
textiles. Using millions of reusable and recyclable
polymer beads (developed by Xeros scientists
in partnership with BASF) to agitate and absorb
dirt and stains, the Xeros system saves around
80% of the water, up to 50% of the energy and
up to 50% of the detergent used in traditional
aqueous-based washing systems. Xeros is
already being used by hotel groups, spas and
industrial laundries. The company is working
on a domestic washing machine, and exploring
applications for the bead cleaning system in
other areas like leather production.
This year, Xeros won an Edison Award for green
innovation and was named University Spin-Out
of the Year at the New Energy & Cleantech
Awards. Xeros employs over 40 people and
rising, in the UK, the US and China. Launched
last summer in the US, Xeros is making inroads
into the top five global hotel groups there, and
creating significant wider interest, especially in
water-stressed regions.
30 Paris 2015
32 Paris 2015
Figure 8:
Tri-benefits from the next manufacturing revolution87
12%
ECONOMIC
SOCIAL
10bn
300,000
P.A.
NEW JOBS
12%
Profit increase in UK
manufacturing jobs
NEXT
MANUFACTURING
REVOLUTION
27
MtCO2
ENVIRONMENTAL
34 Paris 2015
Chapter three
Global progress since Copenhagen
the action we need
36 Paris 2015
The world has moved on from questioning whether climate change exists it is almost
universally recognised as a serious threat to global prosperity, security and wellbeing. The world is not asking if we need to tackle climate change, but how. Over 90
countries, covering 80% of global emissions, have pledged to cut their emissions by
2020 under the Copenhagen Accord. However, we are now playing catch-up. By 2020,
global emissions will be well above the cost-effective pathway to 2C and will only grow
without action to tackle them. Further effort at all levels in the period up to 2020 and
beyond will be vital. However, it is wrong to claim that nothing is happening there has
been some significant progress since 2009. First, national climate change legislation
and carbon pricing mechanisms are spreading. Secondly, we are seeing real progress
on the ground, including from the largest emitters. Thirdly, the acceleration in global
climate action has stimulated important technological and financial advances. Finally,
we have learned a lot about the climate architecture required. Whilst much more action
is needed to meet the below 2C goal, this progress means a global agreement is now
within reach.
The world has made progress but we are
now playing catch-up
3.1 Climate change is almost universally
Figure 9:
Gap between current pledges and emission level needed in 2020 for a medium or likely
chance of meeting 2 goal (source: UNEP GAP report, 2013)
60
59Gt
Low ambition pledges
55
45
44Gt
40
35
30
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
Figure 9 shows the gap between the Copenhagen Accord pledges and the emissions level in 2020
consistent with 2C. UNEPs Gap Report 2013 included a detailed analysis of the feasible emissions
pathways that would lead to a 5066% probability of limiting the global temperate rise to 2C above
pre-industrial levels. The red line in figure 9 represents the median point of those pathways. The Gap
Report also estimated the emissions level in 2020 consistent with a greater than 66% probability of
limiting temperature rise to 2, which is represented by the blue line.
38 Paris 2015
Figure 10:
Countries and regions across the world have developed mechanisms for pricing carbon
( 2014, International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank)122
ALBERTA
MANITOBA
ONTARIO
BRITISH
COLUMBIA
WASHINGTON
OREGON
CALIFORNIA
NORWAY
ICELAND
QUBEC
FINLAND
SWEDEN
KAZAKHSTAN
EU
UK
IRELAND
DENMARK
UKRAINE
REBUBLIC
OF KOREA
FRANCE
JAPAN
RGGI
TURKEY
SWITZERLAND
CHINA
MEXICO
THAILAND
BRAZIL
RIO DE JANEIRO
SO PAULO
CHILE
NEW
ZEALAND
SOUTH AFRICA
REBUBLIC
OF KOREA
BEIJING
TIANJIN
KYOTO
SHANGHAI
HUBEI
SAITAMA
TOKYO
CHONGQING
GUANGDONG
SHENZHEN
Figure 11:
The worlds four biggest emitters
(percentage of global GHG emissions in 2011)
(Source: WRI, CAIT 2.0. 2014. Includes emissions
from Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry)
China
22
US
13
EU
India
9
5
40 Paris 2015
42 Paris 2015
Figure 12:
Growth in renewables investment ($bn) 20042014
(Source: Bloomberg new Energy Finance)
78.0
74.1
57.5
47.7
47.2
42.3 43.4
36.7
27.3
19.1 19.7
17.1
8.9 8.8 8.1 9.8
11.8
65.0
45.6
63.6
62.1
58.3
57.3
58.1
58.1
53.4
52.7
50.7
33.9
69.6
66.1
49.1
47.3
47.7
43.6
43.0
34.8
30.5
27.1
21.8 21.8
13.8
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Excludes corporate
and government R&D, and spending for digital energy and energy storage
projects (reported in annual statistics only).
44 Paris 2015
Figure 13:
Change in Chinese module prices since 2000
(Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance)
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
46 Paris 2015
Chapter four
To Paris 2015 and beyond
the action we need
48 Paris 2015
What we need is an agreement thats ambitious because thats what the scale
of the challenge demands. We need an inclusive agreement because every
country has to play its part. And we need an agreement thats flexible because
different nations have different needs. And if we can come together and get this
right, we can define a sustainable future for your generation.
Barack Obama, US President, June 2013155
Climate change affects the worlds poorest and most vulnerable first and
most severely. This is a global problem that requires a global solution and the
UNFCCC is the only process we have to come to such a global, ambitious, and
equitable solution.
Richard Miller, CEO, Action Aid, September 2014156
Businesses continue to play their part in addressing climate change through
investment in research and low-carbon technologies. But to unlock further
opportunities and support the level of investment required, we need a more
level playing field and greater certainty. A comprehensive global agreement that
includes all major nations will help to deliver this.
John Longworth, Director General, British Chambers of Commerce (BCC),
September 2014157
The time for political posturing on climate change is over. Governments must
take concrete steps or be held to account. This means that all major emitting
countries need to transition rapidly out of fossil fuels and into renewable
energy; we need to conserve forests; and we need plans and resources for
adaptation to the impacts of climate change, insofar as this is possible.
Sam Smith, Leader of the WWF Climate and Energy Initiative, September 2014158
2015 is a crucial year for efforts to deliver a global climate change agreement.
Governments must put aside their entrenched positions and take bolder steps.
Companies like Siemens have the solutions to tackle climate change. But a
global agreement is critical to give more certainty to businesses to scale up
investments, innovation and technologies at the necessary speed to build the
low-emissions societies we need.
Juergen Maier, Chief Executive Siemens plc, September 2014159
Climate change is a global problem and it needs a global solution. Emissions and
their effects both warming and increased extreme weather events do not respect
country borders, meaning no one country or subset of nations can tackle this threat
alone. The UNFCCC is the only forum with the legitimacy and coverage to deliver the
global response that is needed, and in Durban (2011) the world agreed that a new
global agreement on climate change should be reached at the Conference of the
Parties in Paris in December 2015. It is not just governments who want this deal, there is
widespread support from businesses, NGOs and campaign groups, both in the UK and
internationally. As a result, we have the opportunity to agree, for the first time ever,
a legally binding deal in which all 195 countries in the UNFCCC take on commitments to
reduce their emissions. Paris will not be the end of the road, but it can be a huge step
forward on which we can build further in future years. It is an opportunity we must seize.
The UK believes that a successful
agreement in Paris will be one
that reflects countries current
economic realities, stage
of development and future
opportunities and which:
Timeline
23 Sept 2014 UN Secretary General Leaders Summit
Key moment for leaders from government, finance,
business and civil society to showcase their action to
tackle climate change and build momentum towards
reaching an ambitious agreement in 2015 with countries
contributions coming forward in early 2015.
October 2014 European Council
The UK is pushing for EU Leaders to agree to a
domestic emissions reduction of at least 40% by 2030
at October Council.
112 December 2014 COP in Lima
Progress negotiations on the process for countries to
submit their contributions well in advance of Paris and on
the elements of a draft negotiating text, while recognising
pledges to the initial capitalisation of the new Green
Climate Fund.
Quarter 1 2015 contributions brought forward
The UK expects the advanced and other major economies
to come forward with their contributions in the first quarter
as agreed in Warsaw. The three largest emitters, China,
the US and the EU, are set to meet this deadline.
Starting in April period of assessment
The UK expects a period of assessment to ensure
that the international community can understand what
countries have brought forward, and assess whether
commitments are individually and collectively ambitious
enough to keep us on track for 2.
June 2015 Bonn
In line with UNFCCC rules, a draft text of the new
agreement will be considered, as will countries
contributions to the new agreement.
December 2015 Paris
Agreement secured.
50 Paris 2015
Figure 14:
Illustrative emissions trajectory for the transition to a low-carbon economy
Emerging economies are now
aiming to peak and then decline
emissions consistent with a longer
term transition
Time/level of development
52 Paris 2015
Figure 15:
Regional 2030 emissions targets suggested by IPCC review of effort share approaches162
OECD
LATIN AMERICA
ECONOMIES IN
TRANSITION
ASIA
-33% to -74%
-3% to -41%
+159% to +95%
-52% to -69%
+100% to +25%
-37% to -75%
-15% to -49%
+24% to -7%
-28% to -53%
+7% to -33%
KEY
REGION
Change on 1990
Change on 2010
Figure 16:
Annual CO2 emissions from energy use
from 19702035
Key facts163
Only 1 of the top 10 largest per capita
emitters (from 1990 to 2010) is an Annex I
country.
Out of the top 20 per capita emitters
(counting historical emission from 1990 to
2010) only 5 are Annex I countries.164
105 countries (including Brazil, China and
South Africa) have higher GDP per capita
than the poorest Annex I country (Ukraine).165
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
Region
Rest of world
China
India
Middle East
FSU
OECD Pacific
OECD Americas
OECD Europe
Source: IEA Statistics and IEA World Energy Outlook
2013. OECD groupings based on 2013 membership.
Projections based on the WEO New Policies Scenario,
which incorporates the impact of existing energy
and climate policies that have been already been
implemented or announced.
54 Paris 2015
56 Paris 2015
58 Paris 2015
60 Paris 2015
Business needs three things from the political community: clarity, confidence,
and perhaps most of all, courage. The more of these that the global business
community can see, the greater and more transformational will be the business
response.
Paul Polman, Unilever CEO, September 2014171
Young people will not make the decisions at the COP meeting in Paris, but they
will inherit the consequences. We know that two thirds of students are worried
about climate change. I hope world leaders will take strong, agreed action for the
greater good.
Toni Pearce, National President, NUS, September 2014172
Climate change is already starting to bite and whether its flooded homes in Britain
or flattened villages in the Philippines, its the most vulnerable who suffer most
acutely. So not only do we need leaders to rise fast to the challenge, we also need to
listen to ordinary people whose lives are already being shattered by climate change
and ensure their demands for clean energy, secure food and a safe future for their
children are met in any international agreement.
Andy Atkins, Chief Executive Officer, Friends of the Earth, September 2014173
All countries have now heard the warnings from climate scientists; the IPCC tells
us action is needed now and will make a difference. Many parts of the world,
including some of the poorest and most vulnerable people, can already testify to
the effects of climate change and were starting to feel them ourselves at home.
Given that no single country can solve the crisis for itself, we all need to play our
part to solve the climate problem and to urge others to do the same. Together we
can beat the problem: one of the greatest challenges the world has ever faced has
the potential to create one of the worlds greatest solutions.
Loretta Minghella, Chief Executive, Christian Aid, September 2014174
Global co-operation on climate change is essential. We need an international
agreement to end climate pollution, both to protect British businesses and families
from the impacts of extreme weather, and to ensure that millions of people around
the world have the opportunity to escape poverty and develop sustainably.
John Sauven, Executive Director, Greenpeace175
There is a fashionable pessimism about multi-lateralism which shields people from
disappointment but does nothing to protect us from the insecurity that climate
change is bringing. Only a strong international agreement can avoid that and give
nation states the confidence that they will not be alone as they decarbonise their
energy systems.
Matthew Spencer, Director, Green Alliance176
Glossary
Annex I Parties
The Parties listed in Annex I to the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC or the Convention), committed to take
action to mitigate climate change in accordance
with Article 4(2) of the Convention. They include the
24 original OECD members, the European Union,
and 14 countries with economies in transition. In
addition, some of the Parties included in Annex
1 to the Convention have also taken on legally
binding quantified emission limitation or reduction
commitments for the period 2008-12 in accordance
with Article 3 and Annex B of the Kyoto Protocol
(KP). A further group has also consented to take
on further a further quantified emission limitation or
reduction commitment for the period 2013-2020, in
accordance with the Doha Amendment to the KP.
AR5
Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change.
Carbon Capture and Storage
A process consisting of separation of carbon
dioxide from industrial and energy-related sources,
transport to a storage location, and long-term
isolation from the atmosphere.
Cartagena Dialogue
The Cartagena Dialogue (also known as the
Dialogue for Progressive Action) is an informal
space, open to countries working towards an
ambitious, comprehensive and legally binding
regime in the UNFCCC, and who are committed,
domestically, to becoming or remaining low-carbon.
These are forward-looking countries, willing to
work positively and proactively together, within and
across regional groupings and traditional negotiating
blocs in the UNFCCC. The aim of the Dialogue is to
openly discuss the reasoning behind each others
positions and to explore areas where convergence
and enhanced joint action could emerge.
Participants include countries from Europe, Africa,
the Middle East, Latin America and the Caribbean,
the Pacific and Asia.
CDKN
The Climate and Development Knowledge
Network supports decision-makers in designing
and delivering climate compatible development
by combining research, advisory services and
knowledge management in support of locally
owned and managed policy processes. It works
in partnership with decision-makers in the
public, private and non-governmental sectors
nationally, regionally and globally. The Network is
managed by an alliance of organisations led by
PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (PwC), and including
Fundacin Futuro Latinoamericano, INTRAC, LEAD
International, the Overseas Development Institute,
and SouthSouthNorth. Its primary funding support
comes from the UK and Dutch governments.
Copenhagen Accord
The Copenhagen Accord is a political agreement,
concluded at the 2009 UNFCCC Conference of
the Parties, which calls on participating countries
to pledge specific actions they will undertake to
reduce greenhouse gas emissions. To date, over 90
countries, covering 80% of global emissions, have
pledged to cut their emissions by 2020.
Conference of the Parties (COP)
The supreme body of the UNFCCC, established by
Article 7 of the Convention. It currently meets once a
year to review the implementation of the Convention
and makes decisions (within its mandate) which
are necessary to promote effective implementation
of the Convention. The word conference is not
used here in the sense of meeting but rather of
association. The Conference meets in sessional
periods, for example, the fourth session of the
implementation.
Least Developed Countries (LDCs)
The worlds poorest countries. The criteria
currently used by the Economic and Social Council
(ECOSOC) for designation as an LDC include low
income, human resource weakness and economic
vulnerability. Currently 48 countries have been
designated by the UN General Assembly as LDCs.
Loss and damage
At COP 16 in Cancun in 2010, as part of the Cancun
Adaptation Framework, Governments established a
work programme in order to consider approaches
to address loss and damage associated with
climate change impacts in developing countries that
are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects
of climate change. At COP19 in Warsaw in 2013,
a new institutional arrangement the Warsaw
Mechanism for Loss and Damage, comprising
finance, adaptation and technology experts was
established. Also under the Cancun Adaptation
Framework, its remit is to enhance and promote
knowledge of, and approaches to, addressing loss
and damage as part of the spectrum of adaptation
responses. It will report to the Conference of the
Parties and its work will be reviewed in 2016.
Major Economies Forum on Energy and
Climate (MEF)
The Forum was launched on March 28 2009
by US President Barack Obama. The MEF is
intended to facilitate a candid dialogue among
major developed and developing economies, help
generate the political leadership necessary to
achieve a successful outcome at the annual UN
climate negotiations, and advance the exploration of
concrete initiatives and joint ventures that increase
the supply of clean energy while cutting greenhouse
gas emissions.
The 17 major economies participating in the MEF
are: Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, the European
Union, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy,
Japan, Korea, Mexico, Russia, South Africa,
the United Kingdom, and the United States.
Collectively, these account for more than 80% of
global greenhouse gas emissions.
MRV
Measurement, Reporting and Verification. A
process/ concept under the UNFCCC that allows
for transparency, understanding and confidence in
how, and progress being made by, Parties to the
UNFCCC in meeting their obligations under the
UNFCCC.
Non-Annex I Parties
Refers to countries that have ratified or acceded
to the United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change but are not included in Annex I of
the Convention.
ODA
Official development assistance (ODA) is a term
coined by the Development Assistance Committee
(DAC) of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) to measure aid.
OECD
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and
Development.
REDD
Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and
Forest Degradation, a concept that would provide
developing countries with a financial incentive to
preserve forests.
UNDP
United Nations Development Programme.
UNEP
United Nations Environment Programme.
UNFCCC
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change.
62 Paris 2015
Endnotes
1
3
4
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16
17
18
19
20
Chapter 1
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
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23
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Chapter 2
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64 Paris 2015
file/295961/20140204_2012_UK_Greenhouse_Gas_
Emissions_Final_Figures_-_revised_27_March_2014.pdf>
Table 3, p10 [Accessed 2 September 2014].
58 Green Investment Bank. Summary of Transactions. [online]
Available at: <http://www.greeninvestmentbank.com/
media/25409/gib_ar_transactions_270814.pdf> [Accessed 4
September 2014]. To note the mobilized 4.9bn= the UK GIB
1.4bn investment and 3.5bn private investment combined.
59 Department of Energy and Climate Change, 2014. Statistical
Press Release: UK Energy Statistics. [Press Notice], 26
June 2014. Available at: <https://www.gov.uk/government/
uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/323315/
PN_June_14.pdf> [Accessed 28 August 2014].
60 Department of Energy and Climate Change, 2014. Energy
Investment Report. [online] Available at: <https://www.gov.
uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/
file/305860/DECC_Energy_investment_report_Web_Final.
pdf> p4 [Accessed 2 September 2014].
61 Department of Energy and Climate Change, 2014. Delivering
UK Energy Investment Report. [online] Available at: <https://
www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/
attachment_data/file/331071/DECC_Energy_Investment_
Report.pdf> p11 [Accessed 2 September 2014].
62 Department for Transport, 2013. Vehicle Statistics. [online]
Available at: <https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/
vehicles-statistics> [Accessed 4 September 2014].
63 Innovation & Technology, 2010. Nissan to Build Leaf Electric
Vehicle in Sunderland. [online] Available at: <http://www.
nissan.co.uk/GB/en/inside-nissan/news/leaf_news/ev_news.
html> [Accessed 28 August 2014].
64 SMMT: Driving the Motor Industry, 2012. UK plant to build
engines for BMQ i8 plug-in hybrid sports cars. [online]
Available at: <http://www.smmt.co.uk/2012/06/uk-engineplant-to-build-engines-for-bmw-i8-plug-in-hybrid-sportscars/> [Accessed 02 September 2014].
65 Department for Communities and Local Government, 2013.
Energy measures to save 200 annually in fuel bills for a new
home. [Press release] 30 June 2013. Available at:
<https://www.gov.uk/government/news/energy-measuresto-save-200-in-fuel-bills-for-a-new-home> [Accessed 28
August 2014]. These headline numbers were drawn from
published impact assessments. Note that the 16m is an
equivalent annual net benefit taking into account the life
cycle costs and benefits from all relevant buildings affected
by changes made in 2013. The 200 saving in annual fuel
bills for home owners is for a typical family/home and is the
cumulative incremental saving from changes made in 2010
and 2013.
66 Department for Communities and Local Government, 2014.
Next steps to zero carbon homes Allowable Solutions:
Government response and summary of response to the
consultation. [pdf] London: Department for Communities and
Local Government. Available at:
<https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/
attachment_data/file/327842/140626_Government_
Response_to_Consultation_-_Next_Steps_to_Zero_
Carbon_H__FINAL.pdf> [Accessed 28 August 2014].
67 Department for Energy and Climate Change, 2014. Delivering
UK Energy Investment. [pdf] London: Department for Energy
and Climate Change. Available at: <https://www.gov.uk/
government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/
file/331071/DECC_Energy_Investment_Report.pdf> p69
[Accessed 28 August 2014].
68 UK Scientific CCS Leadership (December 2013) analysis
undertaken by the UKCCSRC based on citations and
publications as success indicators.
69 Department of Energy and Climate Change, 2013. CCS
Cost Reduction Task Force Final Report. [online] Available
at: <https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/ccs-costreduction-task-force-final-report> [Accessed 28 August
2014].
70 Department for Business, Innovation and Skills, 2014.
Energy Intensive Industries: compensation for indirect costs
of energy and climate change policies. [online] Available
at: <https://www.gov.uk/energy-intensive-industries-
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