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US Federal Reserve S97mishk
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of Financial Instability:
Lessons for Policymakers
Frederic S. Mishkin
55
56 Frederic S. Mishkin
Moral hazard occurs after the transaction takes place because the
lender is subjected to the hazard that the borrower has incentives to
engage in activities that are undesirable (immoral) from the lender’s
point of view—that is, activities that make it less likely that the loan
The Causes and Propagation of Financial Instability:
Lessons for Policymakers 57
withdraw funds not only from insolvent banks but also from healthy
institutions because they cannot sort the good from the bad banks.
Indeed, because banks operate on a first-come, first-served basis (the
so-called sequential service constraint), depositors have a very strong
incentive to show up at the bank first because if they are last on line,
the bank may run out of funds and they will get nothing. Therefore,
uncertainty about the health of the banking system in general in the
face of an economy-wide shock can lead to “runs” on banks, both good
and bad, and the failure of one bank can hasten the failure of others,
leading to a contagion effect. If nothing is done to restore the public’s
confidence, a bank panic can ensue in which both solvent and
insolvent banks go out of business, leaving depositors with large losses.
moral hazard which arises because depositors expect that they will
not suffer losses if a bank fails. Thus, depositors are less likely to
impose the discipline of the marketplace on banks by withdrawing
deposits when they suspect that the bank is taking on too much risk.
Consequently, banks that are provided with a safety net have incen-
tives to take on greater risks than they otherwise would. The
existence of a government safety net thus creates even more reason
for governments to impose regulations to restrict risk taking by
financial institutions.
Increases in uncertainty
The state of the balance sheet of both nonfinancial firms and banks
is the most critical factor for the severity of asymmetric information
problems in the financial system. Deterioration of balance sheets
worsens both adverse selection and moral hazard problems in finan-
cial markets, thus promoting financial instability.
borrowers now have more at stake, and thus more to lose, if they
default on their loans. Hence, when firms seeking credit have high
net worth, the consequences of adverse selection and moral hazard
are less important and lenders will be more willing to make loans.
and moral hazard problems become more severe for potential lend-
ers to these firms and households, leading to a decline in lending
and economic activity. There is thus an additional reason why sharp
increases in interest rates can be an important factor leading to
financial instability.
Weak bank balance sheets can also occur because the supervi-
sory/regulatory structure has not worked well enough to restrain
excessive risk taking on the part of banks. There are two reasons
why the regulatory process might not work as intended. The first is
that regulators and bank managers may not have sufficient resources
or knowledge to do their jobs properly. This commonly occurs after
a financial liberalization in which banking institutions are given new
lending opportunities. Not only do the managers of banking institu-
tions frequently not have the required expertise to manage risk
appropriately in these new lines of business, but also they lack the
managerial capital to cope with the rapid growth of lending that
typically follows a financial liberalization. Even if the required
managerial expertise were available initially, the rapid credit growth
is likely to outstrip the available information resources of the bank-
ing institution, resulting in excessive risk taking.
Not only do the new lines of business and rapid credit growth
stretch the managerial resources of banks, but also they similarly
70 Frederic S. Mishkin
The second reason why the regulatory process might not work as
intended is explained by recognizing that the relationship between
voters-taxpayers on the one hand and the regulators and politicians
on the other creates a particular type of moral hazard problem, the
principal-agent problem. The principal-agent problem occurs when
agents have different incentives from the person they work for (the
principal) and so act in their own interest rather than in the interest
of their employer. Regulators and politicians are ultimately agents
for voters-taxpayers (principals) because in the final analysis tax-
payers bear the cost of any losses when the safety net is invoked.
The principal-agent problem occurs because the agent (a politician
or regulator) may not have the same incentives to minimize costs to
the economy as the principal (the taxpayer).
The initial impetus for financial instability is the same for both
industrialized countries and emerging-market countries as the first
row of Figures 1 and 2 indicates. Four factors typically help initiate
financial instability: (1) increases in interest rates, (2) a deterioration
in bank balance sheets, (3) negative shocks to nonbank balance
sheets such as a stock market decline, and (4) increases in uncer-
tainty. Countries often begin experiencing major bouts of financial
instability when domestic interest rates begin to rise, often with the
rise initiated by interest rate increases abroad. For example, as
documented in Mishkin (1991), most financial crises in the United
States in the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries began with a
sharp rise in interest rates that followed interest rate increases in the
London markets. Similarly, the Mexican financial crisis of 1994-95
began with upward pressure on domestic interest rates following the
monetary tightening in the United States beginning in February
1994. As we have seen, these rises in interest rates increased adverse
selection problems in the credit markets. The rise in interest rates
also increased moral hazard problems because the resulting decrease
in cash flow hurt the balance sheets of nonbank firms. In addition,
the increase in interest rates weakened bank balance sheets because
of banks’ maturity mismatch and also led to increased moral hazard
problems as indicated in the next row in Figures 1 and 2.
Figure 1
Propagation of Financial Instability
in Industrialized Countries
Economic activity
declines
Typical
financial
Banking crisis crisis
Economic activity
declines
Unanticipated
decline in
price levels
Economic activity
Factors Causing declines
Financial Instability
Effects of Factors
Adverse selection and moral
hazard problems worsen
Economic activity
declines
The Causes and Propagation of Financial Instability:
Lessons for Policymakers 75
Figure 2
Propagation of Financial Instability
in Emerging-Market Countries
Foreign exchange
crisis
Economic activity
declines
Banking crisis
Effects of Factors
Adverse selection and moral
hazard problems worsen
Economic activity
declines
76 Frederic S. Mishkin
If any of the four factors in the top row of the two figures occurs,
it can promote financial instability. If all of these factors occur at the
same time and are large, the situation is likely to escalate into a
full-scale financial crisis, with much greater negative effects on the
real economy.
upon them because they worry that it might increase the likelihood
that the central bank would be politicized, thereby impinging on the
independence of the central bank. Alternatively, bank supervisory
activities could be housed in a bank regulatory authority that is
independent of the government.
Financial liberalization
The analysis in this paper does not indicate that fixing or pegging
an exchange rate should never be used to control inflation. Indeed,
countries with a past history of poor inflation performance may find
that only with a very strong commitment mechanism to an exchange
rate peg (as in a currency board) can inflation be controlled. How-
ever, the analysis does suggest that countries using this strategy to
control inflation must actively pursue policies that will promote a
healthy banking system. Furthermore, if a country has an institu-
tional structure of a fragile banking system, short-duration debt
contracts and substantial debt denominated in foreign currencies,
using an exchange rate peg to control inflation can be a very
dangerous strategy indeed.15
The Causes and Propagation of Financial Instability:
Lessons for Policymakers 87
deposits if the bank takes on too much risk. Thus, the lender-of-last-
resort role in itself can produce a moral hazard problem because it
can lead to expectations that encourage banks to take on too much
risk. This moral hazard problem is most severe for large banks if
they are the beneficiaries of a somewhat misnamed “too big to fail”
policy in which depositors at a large bank in trouble are protected
from any losses by a lender-of-last-resort policy, such as that used
when Continental Illinois failed in 1984 in the United States. (The
“too big to fail” policy is somewhat misnamed because, although
depositors are completely protected from losses, the bank is in fact
allowed to fail with losses to the equity holders.) Evidence in Boyd
and Gertler (1993) suggests that the cost of the “too big to fail”
policy has indeed been quite high in the United States after it was
put into force with the failure of Continental Illinois in 1984.
Price stability
Author’s Note: I thank Steve Cecchetti, Dorothy Sobol, and participants at this symposium for
their helpful comments. Any views expressed in this paper are those of the author only and not
those of the National Bureau of Economic Research, Columbia University, the Federal Reserve
Bank of New York, or the Federal Reserve System.
The Causes and Propagation of Financial Instability:
Lessons for Policymakers 93
Endnotes
1See Roubini and Sala-i-Martin (1995) and the references therein.
2Note that asymmetric information is not the only source of the moral hazard problem. Moral
hazard can also occur because high enforcement costs might make it too costly for the lender to
prevent moral hazard even when the lender is fully informed about the borrower’s activities.
3Note that by making private loans, financial institutions cannot entirely eliminate the
free-rider problem. Knowing that a financial institution has made a loan to a particular company
reveals information to other parties that the company is more likely to be creditworthy and will
be undergoing monitoring by the financial institution. Thus some of the benefits of information
collection produced by the financial institution will accrue to others. The basic point here is that
by making private loans, financial institutions have the advantage of reducing the free-rider
problem, but they can not eliminate it entirely.
4Rojas-Suarez and Weisbrod (1994) document that banks play a more important role in the
financial systems in emerging-market countries than they do in industrialized countries.
5As pointed out in Edwards and Mishkin (1995), the traditional financial intermediation role
of banking has been in decline in both the United States and other industrialized countries
because of improved information technology which makes it easier to issue securities. Although
this suggests that the declining role of traditional banking, which has been occurring in the
industrialized countries, may eventually occur in the developing countries as well, the barriers
to information collection in developing countries are so great that the dominance of banks in
these countries will continue for the foreseeable future.
7Additional recent surveys that discuss this monetary transmission channel are Hubbard
(1995), Cecchetti (1995), and Mishkin (1996a).
9See Bernanke and Lown (1991), Berger and Udell (1994), Hancock, Laing, and Wilcox
(1995), and Peek and Rosengren (1995), and the symposium proceedings published in the
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Quarterly Review in the spring of 1993, Federal Reserve
Bank of New York (1993).
10However, even in industrialized countries, the institutional structure of the banking system
may prevent diversification, resulting in banks that are subject to terms-of-trade shocks. For
example, because banks in Texas in the early 1980s did not diversify outside their region, they
were devastated by the sharp decline in oil prices that occurred in 1986. Indeed, this terms-of-
trade shock to the Texas economy, which was very concentrated in the energy sector, resulted
in the failure of the largest banking institutions in that state.
11An important point is that even if banks have a matched portfolio of foreign-currency
denominated assets and liabilities and so appear to avoid foreign-exchange market risk, a
94 Frederic S. Mishkin
devaluation can nonetheless cause substantial harm to bank balance sheets. The reason is that
when a devaluation occurs, the offsetting foreign-currency denominated assets are unlikely to
be paid off in full because of the worsening business conditions and the negative effect that these
increases in the value in domestic currency terms of these foreign-currency denominated loans
have on the balance sheet of the borrowing firms. Another way of saying this is that when there
is a devaluation, the mismatch between foreign-currency denominated assets and liabilities on
borrowers’ balance sheets can lead to defaults on their loans, thereby converting a market risk
for borrowers to a credit risk for the banks that have made the foreign-currency denominated
loans.
12Kane (1989) characterizes such behavior on the part of regulators as “bureaucratic gam-
bling.”
13See Mishkin (1991, 1996b) for a description of how this analysis explains the sequence
and timing of financial crises in the United States in the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries
and Mexico in 1994-95.
14The importance of disclosure is illustrated in a recent paper, Garber and Lall (1996), which
suggests that off-balance-sheet and off-shore derivatives contracts played an important role in
the Mexican crisis.
15See Obstfeld and Rogoff (1995) for additional arguments as to why pegged exchange rate
regimes may be undesirable.
19An interesting historical example of the value of preventing deflation is that of Sweden in
the 1930s, which adopted a “norm of price stabilization” after leaving the gold standard in 1931.
As a result, Sweden did not undergo the devastating deflation and financial instability experi-
enced by other countries during the Great Depression (Jonung, 1979).
The Causes and Propagation of Financial Instability:
Lessons for Policymakers 95
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