Fifth-Generation War: Warfare Versus The Nonstate by LtCol Stanton S. Coerr, USMCR
Fifth-Generation War: Warfare Versus The Nonstate by LtCol Stanton S. Coerr, USMCR
Fifth-Generation War: Warfare Versus The Nonstate by LtCol Stanton S. Coerr, USMCR
Fifth-Generation War
Warfare versus the nonstate
by LtCol Stanton S. Coerr, USMCR
T
he United States is what Niall Ferguson calls an as its center of gravity. It will not have even the centers of
“empire-State,”1 depending upon grand strategy gravity, such as pride or religious fervor, that theorist William
in projecting both force and ideas. American ex- S. Lind describes. As radical Islam fractures—and becomes
port of force has been based on planning for a more dangerous—similar, associated, or even dispassionate
conflict that will be big, kinetic, morally crisp, statist, and fellow traveler movements will observe and exploit al-Qaeda’s
winnable—the World Wars I and II (WWI and II) model of success in becoming more powerful by losing mass. This
wars. In reality, our next conflict could well be small, morally enemy will not have centers of gravity at all.
confusing, and idea centered, and could end in an ambigu- Second, the accelerating chaos of the Third and Fourth
ous stalemate, combining all of the worst ends of Saigon, Worlds, shifting transnational alliances, and the increasing
Mogadishu, 11 September 2001 (9/11), and Baghdad. At interest of transnational actors in fomenting and supporting
the upper bound of conflict, Americans know how to win chaos will lead to the end of the state as prime mover and re-
air-land-sea battles with large conventional forces. At the dresser of grievance, putting paid to Lind’s “crisis of legiti-
lower bound of conflict, counterinsurgency and irregular
warfare experts2 deftly explain small, discrete revolutions in On the Web
the jungle or the urban wasteland; put causes to the reasons
men rebel; and think about how to stop the next Marxist or
Read more about Lind 4GW at www.mca-marines.org/gazette/5GW.
Islamic irregulars.
Yet as the primacy of other “states” recedes, and we stand
nearly alone, into the vacuum will step irrational actors,
united by a radical core belief in Islam. We are prepared at
the top and bottom of conflict, but not in the seam between >LtCol Coerr is a Cobra pilot and forward
them. It is this seam in which the next actors will grow. The air controller. He has deployed with a Ma-
rine attack squadron, a rifle battalion, and
rising global jihad, the insurgency that is the “vehicle of the an air/naval gunfire liaison company (AN-
coward,”3 presents the first such set of actors, and the old GLICO). LtCol Coerr was a liaison to the 1
rules of warfare will not apply. Royal Irish Battle Group during OIF I. He is
First, America’s fifth-generation warfare (5GW) irregular currently assigned to the Aviation Depart-
opponent will not have a traditional great man leader (who ment, HQMC. LtCol Coerr assumes com-
mand of 4th ANGLICO in January.
could be killed) or a field army (which could be destroyed)
Photo: We must ensure that our unit leaders are capable of dealing with the conflicts that fall between major theater war and counterin-
surgency. (Photo by Cpl Daniel J. Redding.)
5GW: Background
“Real revolutions . . . don’t just pro- The first generation of war arose from the first generation
of the state as the coherent governing entity and describes an
vide a new answer, they change the arc of regimented, linear combat beginning from the Romans
very questions being asked.” at Cannae and Zama, pausing at the formalizing of the state
in the 1648 Treaty of Westphalia, and accelerating the killing
—Caitlin Flanagan7 up to and through the horrors of the American Civil War.9
The second, attritionist generation of war, began as man re-
alized what the state, massed and determined, could do—
The Model: Quantum Mechanics the horrors of World War I trench warfare and a stubborn
In the early- to mid-1900s, groundbreaking research on Prussian insistence on demanding an orderly battlefield im-
the structure of the atom yielded quantum theory,8 (see Fig- posed on chaos. If battle wasn’t organized, armies could be.
ure 1) which discarded linear thinking based on empiricism (See Figure 2.)
alone. Giants of science—Werner Heisenberg, Niels Bohr, The third generation of war began at the point where the
Albert Einstein, Erwin Schrodinger, Kurt Godel—were deal- British Empire’s fall intersected10 with America’s rise from
ing with issues so complex that they invented not just new power to empire and corresponds directly with a rise in the
answers but new questions. Quantum physics asserts that the mechanization of war. Conflict moved from up-close murder
atom is almost an idea rather than an object, and that within to distant engagements with hardware, and the raw violence
Notes
1. Ferguson, Niall, The War of the
World, Penguin Group, New York, 2006,
title of Part II, beginning p. 189.
9. Numerous works cover this topic, from the time (and works) of Cicero to 26. Boyce, Maj Giles “Russ,” Operations Officer, 3d Battalion, 4th
the work of Shelby Foote and Douglas Southall Freeman. Niall Ferguson and Marines, and commander of forces in Haditha, Iraq. Interview with au-
Max Boot have looked at such first-generation war from the state perspective. thor, February 2005.
11. Ideas on the generations of warfare come from several sources, most 28. Fertig, LTC Randall, USA, Symposium on Counterinsurgency,
notably William Lind, who has published a draft of FMFM 1A. Lind was RAND Corporation, 1963, p. 80.
a favorite of Marine Commandant Alfred M. Gray, and Lind’s ideas have
permeated all Marine Corps professional education for 20 years; as the 29. The ideas of drives being frustrated, of the agency of final disappoint-
number “1” would suggest, these manuals are the bedrock on which Ma- ment, and of the power of crowd dynamics comes from Ted Robert Gurr,
rine officer instruction is based. See also Walter Russell Mead’s discussions Why Men Rebel, Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ, 1970. Gurr
of hard and sharp power in Chapter Two, Power, Terror, Peace and War, is a sociologist but truly understands crowds and violence. See Figure 5
Alfred A. Knopf, New York, 2004, and Frank Hoffman, Parameters, Sum- that was created to illustrate these points.
mer 2007, who delineates crisply the debate between the classical school
of rational actor-driven war and this uncomfortable fourth generation in 30. David Kilcullen is a former Australian Army infantry officer and an ex-
which we find ourselves. pert in counterinsurgency and was, until fall of 2007, senior counterin-
surgency advisor to GEN David Petraeus, USA. To Kilcullen goes the
12. Boyd, Col John, USAF, Patterns of Conflict, 1986 (no copyright), p. credit for the idea of al-Qaeda as the “clearinghouse” for the global jihad.
111. Boyd is particularly interested in how to “pull an opponent apart.” He points out that the jihad is not what the insurgency is; it is what the
Such action need not be, and properly expressed, often is not, military or insurgency does. Nonetheless, the global jihad and the global insurgency
even kinetic. Just like Sun Tzu, Boyd would rather win without fighting. are right now one and the same.
His ideas correlate directly with those of Osama bin Laden.
31. Johnson III, COL James, USA, Joint Military Operations final paper,
13. Lind, FMFM 1A. These ideas permeate the book. See also Boyd. Naval War College, Newport, RI, November 2007, p. 9.
14. Huntington, Samuel, The Clash of Civilizations, Simon and Schuster, 32. See Linda J. Bilmes and Joseph E. Stiglitz, The Three Trillion Dollar
New York, 1986. Huntington takes a hard-eyed, realist view of the world, War: The True Cost of the Iraq Conflict, W.W. Norton, New York, March
insisting that the West and the “non-West” are rising in concert and in- 2008. These researchers used econometrics to figure out how much the
sisting that one cannot understand conflict without understanding cul- war, in and of itself and separated from normal military spending, will
ture. Huntington is academic, dour, and contrarian—and invariably right. cost.
15. Boyd, pp. 64 and 107. 33. Bennett, Drake, “Small Change: why we can’t fight terrorists by cut-
ting off their money,” (sic) The Boston Globe, 20 January 2008, p. K2.
16. Zinni, Gen Anthony C., USMC(Ret), breakfast meeting with author, Uni-
versity of San Diego (USD), April 2004. The discussion has been transcribed, 34. Boyd, pp. 155, 177.
recorded, and published by USD’s Kroc Institute for Peace and Justice.
35. Marine officers are seasoned on the Powell Doctrine, but such insis-
17. Sachs, Jeffrey, “The Geography of Economic Development,” Strategy tence on overwhelming force draws from the underpinning provided by
and Foreign Policy, Naval War College Press, Newport, RI, 2006, p. 272. BG Fox Connor, USA, the little-known mentor to both GENs George C.
Marshall and Dwight D. Eisenhower. See Mark Perry, Partners in Com-
18. Barnett, Thomas P.M., The Pentagon’s New Map, Putnam, New York, mand, (Penguin Books, 2007). Secretary of Defense, Robert Gates, in his
2004. This idea permeates the book. article, “Reflections on Leadership,” in the Summer 2008 issue of Param-
eters, provides an interesting analysis of this intellectual thread. Connor’s
19. Hoffman, LtCol Frank G., USMCR(Ret), “Neo-Classical Coun- three rules of war are never fight unless you have to, never fight alone, and
terinsurgency,” Parameters, U.S. Army War College, Carlisle, PA, Sum- never fight for long.
mer 2007, p. 78.
>Editor’s Note: The author holds a master’s degree from Harvard’s
20. Department of Defense, Irregular Warfare Joint Operating Concept, John F. Kennedy School of Government and graduated with high-
11 September 2007, p. 7. est distinction from the Naval War College in 2008. While at the
Naval War College, his thesis, “Don’t Trust the Big Man,” delved
21. Vego, Milan, Operational Warfare, United States Naval War College, further into the ideas explored in this article, using Africa below the
Newport, RI, Lesson 1004, p. 309. Sahel as the case study on which this article is based. His thesis is
available at the Defense Technical Information Center website.
22. Lind, FMFM 1A.
23. See Figure 1. Bohr atom versus QTW model. Join the De-
bate
24. Lind, 5GW blog.
Agree or Disagree? Join the discussion at www.mca-marines.org/gazette/Coerr.