Contents

1

PROJECT SUMMARY

Introduction

Problems and Solutions The Project

Costing of Principal Project Components Costs and Benefits

Future Development

2

BACKGROUND

Irrigation

Waterlogging and Salinity Land Use

3

DRAINAGE

El

Soils and Water Table Control Horizontal Drainage

VerticaJ Drainage

Surface Drainage

Olltfall System

4

AGRICL:LTURE AND IRRIG . .\ TlO;>.J

~

Agriculture

all Farm Water Management Canal Remodeling Scavenger Wells

Interceptor Drains

5

MANAGEl\1F.NT

@]

Project Management and Control Physical Monitoring Socio-economic monitoring Operation and Maintenance

6

VIABILfTY AND IMPACT

B

Economic Viability Employment and Income Effects Economic Analysis

Other Benefits

7

El\TV'IRONM ENTAL Asnccrs

Introduction

Disposal of Saline Effluent/Outfall System

Other Habitats to be Protected Chotiari Reservoir

Nara Canal Remodelling

8

PROJECT COI\1PONENTS

B

Summary of Project Components Spinal Drain and Tidal Link Nawabshah Project

Sanghar Project

Mirpurkhas Project

Irrigation Works

Title Photograpk\'

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

Top.' Dhands in the hydraulic model seen from northern direction

Left (bottom): Salinity ill Cultivated land

Righi (bottom): Saliniy and Waterlogging in abandoned land

PROJECT AT A GLANCE

DESCRIPTION N'SHAH SANGHAR MIRPURKHAS TOTAL
SUB· PROJECT SUB·PROJECT SUB·PROJECT Drainage Component Area Served

0.550

0.362

0.358

1.270 million (Acres CCA)

Spinal drain, KPOD & DPOD* Tidal Link

Surface Drains

Tile Drains

Interceptor Drains

Standard Tubewells

Scavenger Tubewells

154 303 189

141 597 175

769

285 km 42km 1623 km 1733 km 295 km 1669 Nrs 364 Nrs

628

554

441 1733

Electrification

Transmi ssi on Lines (11 kv) Distribution Transformer

1313 680

1440 745

1380 860

4133 km 2285 Nrs

275 km 217km

Irrigation Chotiari Reservoir (Live Storage)

Jamrao Canal Remodelling Nara Canal Remodelling

0.80MAF

OFWM*

Water Course Improvement Precision Land Levelling

1481 Nrs 80,000 Acres

Benefits

Cropped Area (Present) Cropped Area (Future) Cropping Intensity (Present) Cropping Intensity (Future)

965200 Acres 1411000 Acres 87% 117%

Commencement Completion

July, 1986 Dec, 1997

* KPOD = Kadhan Pateji outfall drain

DPOD = Dhoro Puran outfall drain

OFWM = On farm water management

Introduction

1 rrigation II) the indh Provi nee of Pakistan has a histor of several thousand years, Without it there would be virtually no agriculture.

major programme of

irnprovern III and con truction of new inundation canals was undertaken in the latter half of the nineteenth century but it was not until 1932 that barrage commanded irrigation was introduced with the construction of the Sukkur Barrage system commanding a gross area of 'orne eight million acres on the 1 n and right banks r th Riv r lndus, Later two other barrages, Kotri (1955) and udu (1962) completed til ~ s stern as it is today.

II is the left bank or the ukkur Barrage \i ith which the Left B'l11k Outfall Drain Project i. concerned.

serious and consultants were engaged to study the position in Khairpur the most northerly area o.f the cornman? This was completed and a drainage project undertaken with World Bunk assistance. The study area was ex tended to eventually Cover the whole or Sindh in what became known a the Lower Indus Proje t (LIP). he Len Bank Outfall Drain was first proposed in the LIP report in 1966. Broadly the study proposed that the drain should be aligncd from til Rann of Kutch and taken north through the command area a. far as the Khairpur Project, which WDS [hen lind er con siruc tio nand was proposing to discharge saline drainage water to the Rohri canal. It was suggested that the drain could if necessar be extended into the uclu command.

irtually al l this commancl is supplied with perennial water and this SllPP rts a summer (kharif) cro which is mainly cotton, and a winter (rabi) crop which is largely wheal. It was known in 1932 that the command would eventually require drainage but with the deep water tables prevailing at that ti me it was riot i ni tial ly needed.

By 1959 the position had become

SIND IRRIGATION COMMANDS

Various reports followed from 1969 until 1981. The 1969 r port was the first full feasibility study and subsequent reports presented more detail, updat d cost and benefits. Technically they were mainly concerned with capacity and al i znment variations,

Meanwhile in 1974 the Government of Puk i st a n had approved Phas e J of th project a

proposed i 11 the. econd Project Planning report which W~I'i produced i 11 J 972, and construction was started in 1974.

In 1980 a study was undertaken with ODA technical assistance which i d e n t ifi e d the LBOD com ponen t pro. jeers, establ ished their priorities and recommended an overall implementation plan.

The World Bank look an active interest in the project in 1982 when a specialist mi, sian visited the area in May and July. They decided that more work was needed in order to attract other donor agencies, Specifically they were concerned that the project had moved from a mUltipurpo.se drainage project to a

Ingle minded determination to COil. iruct th SpinaJ Drain. The

uspccied that [hi would not be

viable on its own. They were also concerned with certai n technical feasibility aspects.

By 1982 some LOn miles of the

pinal Drain had been constructed including an outfall usrng the defunct Dhora Puran. The toted pi an ned Jengt h of 160 miles was completed in I 85.

In October 1982 the World bank under the DP mbr lla Project engaged onsultants to carry out the Project Preparation of" Stage 1 of [he LBOD programme.

Problems and Solutions

I 0 one seriously doubts the need for drainage in indh, The general r i e of the water table and the accompanying salinisation of land i evidence enough, Add 1.0 that the thousands of acres 0.1' crops [hat have died following e ve re morn on storms which have often flood d large ar as and brought the water table in .tantly to th surface in areas wher it wa alread high.

4

River

Canal International boundary

LBOD catchment

Component projects

Stage 1 compon-ent projects

LBOD

-

Arabian

Sea

an outfall can be minimised by careful design. However, the problem of disposal is difficult, the choices being the Thar Desert, the River Indus, the Rann of Kutch or Arabian Sea. Disposal into the first two can be discounted from cost hydraulic and environmental considerations. Outfall into either the Rann of Kutch or Arabian Sea is technically feasible but, as the latter has the more satisfactory en vironme ntal and hydraulic performance, it has been adopted as the outfall for LBOD. In addition it isolates the discharge from Indian territory.

Having established that there is a potential benefit to drainage, it is fair to ask whether the soils can in fact be drained. For this there is a great deal of evidence. Broadly the soils of the Lower Indus Basin can be described as medium textured (70%) with some sands and some silty clay. True clays are rare and the clay minerals involved are of the non-swelling type. The soils are very mixed and their composition is characterised by the geomorphological conditions controlling their deposition. Some 10 to 20 feet of such soils overlie a deep sand aquifer generally several hundred to perhaps 2,000 feet thick.

Two, elements are involved in drainage and these are water table control and the removal of flood water after storm rainfall. Theyare not entirely independent. High water tables inhibit crop growth and cause salinisation in uncropped land.

rise to 5 feet at the mid-point between tiles but in fallow conditions will lie at an average of 7 feet.

Conventionally the quantity of water to be drained is derived from some form of water balance. For the LBOD study it was also possible to use field data gathered from areas where the water table had stabilised, that is, where incoming irrigation water was exactly balanced by the outgoing crop evapo transpiration and the evaporation from uncropped land. Under these conditions the crop is generally underwatered, Lowering the water table reduces the evaporation loss and a full water supply involves additions to the water table through percolation below the root zone. These elemen ts constitute the drainable surplus from cropped land to which must be added the contribution from canal seepage.

x « ::2 LL o

if<

6

DEPTH TO WATERTABLE

Great damage occurs to cotton as a result of rainfall. High water tables quickly move up to the surface and large areas become flooded. These floods persist in the absence of drainage. The effect on cotton of these conditions is considerable. To estimate the total effect of storm damage, probabilities must be determined from the long term record. Damage is" estimated for each size of storm for various runoff conditions. Of vital importance to this determination is the amount of water that can be accumulated in the soi I profile above the water table. Such storage arises from adequate water table controL Applying probability to tbe potential damage gives the benefit to storm water drainage.

The water to be drained will undoubtedly be saline; effluent from tile drainage can vary from 3000 to about 10,000 ppm and that from tubewells can be twice as saline. The problem is to remove the water without affecting good agricultural land. Salinity effects of conveying water from tubewells to

Whenever possible the level will be established at 6 feet or more below ground surface. This is easily achievable with tubewells but with tile drains it is only practicable to lay them from 6 to 8 feet. Beyond 8 feet they become more expensive. Under irrigated land the water may

6

A large number of test wells have been put down into this aquifer and subsequently several thousand wells on various projects. These all show that the water table responds to aquifer pumping.

Since 1932 the water table has steadily risen from depths in excess of 12 feet in the whole of Sindh to the present patchwork where the highest levels have stabilised at just below or even at G.L. Just as no barrier prevented it from rising none will appear to prevent it falling.

Having decided that the water table can be controlled there is a choice of method, should it be open drains, tile drains or tubewells? Open drains are horrendously expensive, they take up too much land and present various maintenance problems. Tiles are also expensive, slow to install and in relatively flat land require numerous small pumping stations. Little maintenance is required and over a period of time the water q uali ty from tile drains w i 11 improve and may be re-usable. Tile drains become proportionately more expensi ve the deeper the desired level of water table control.

Tubewells are cheap, quick to install, can control the water table at virtually any required depth, require little maintenance but can only be used where aquifer conditions are suitable. Large capacity wells are the cheapest and have been, used where possible ..

The typical costs are:

Capital cost (000 Rs/acre)

Tile 15-20

T/wells 1.0-2.0

Operating cost (Rs/acre/year)

Tile 80-100

T/wells 40-100

The Project

LBOD Stage I provides surface drainage and priority sub-surface drainage for about 1.3 million acres in Sukkur Barrage Left Bank Command together with additional irrigation supplies to halt the present deterioration and allow a progressive and permanent increase in cropping intensities from 86 percen t i 11 1983 (pre-project) to 118% in 1993 (Mid term of Project) to a target of 147% in 1997 (Project completion).

The scheme covers the Nawabshah, Sarighar and Mirpurkhas areas A mon g the components of the project are:

.. a network of surface drains discharging to the sea via a spinal drain and tidal link;

.. deep tubewells to intercept seepage water and control the groundwater table by pumping groundwater into the surface drainage network;

.. special wells to scavenge fresh water lenses for use in irrigation;

.. burried interceptor drains beside canals to recover fresh water see-page for use in irrigation;

.. burried tile drains to control groundwater tables where drainage tube wells are not feasible;

.. additional power capacity at seven existing grid stations;

.. a network of power supplies to tubewells and drainage pumping stations;

.. remodelling canals to increase

capacity and stability;

.. construction of Chotiari

Reservoir to provide system storage allowing secure supplies to the Lower Nara Canal system;

.. OnFarm Water Management to improve watercourses and water use practices;

.. the provision of plant, equipment

and workshops for maintenance of the drainage system;

.. the establishment of sustainable operation and maintenance arrangements;

• studies of the impact of the project on groundwater levels, agricultural performance, social development and distribution of benefits.

7

COSTING OF PRINCIPAL PROJECT COMPONENTS

Description

Scope of Work

Total Estimated Cost Rs. MilIlion

Main Outfall System
Spinal Drain 2] 0 km open drain 296
Remodel KPODIDPOD 75 km open drain 210
Tidal Link 40 km open drain 787
Sub Total 1293
Nawabshah
Surface Drains 628 km open drains 1230
Drainage Wells 303 Nr saline wells 210
Interceptor Drains 154 k111 buried drains (fresh) 250
Scavenger Wells 189 Nr saline/fresh wells 250
Sub Total 1940
Sanghar
Surface Drains 554 km open drains 1580
Drainage Wells 597 Nr saline wells 600
Interceptor Drains 141 km buried drains (fresh) 500
Scavenger Wells 175 Nr saline/fresh wells 280
Sub Total 2960
Mirpurkhas
Surface Drains 441 k111 open drain 1080
Drainage Wells 769 Nr saline wells 1040
Tile Drainage 1733 km buried drains (saline) 930
Sub Total 3050
Electrification
llkV Transmission 4133 km of lines }
Distribution transformers 2285 Nos. 834
Other Electrical Extend Grid Stations, etc.
Sub Total 834
Chotiari Reservoir 55km embankment & structures 1450
Maintenance Equipment Workshops and Machinery 710
SUB TOTAL WAPDA COMPONENT 12237
Canal Improvements Remodelling of Nara Canal & Jamrao 4750
Canal System
TOTAL COST (WAPDA & IPD) 16987
8 Costs and Benefits

The Project is now planned under a revised PCI to be completed at the end of 1997 at a cost of Rs. 23432 million. About 60 percent of the total project cost is Donor funded. The remaining 40 percent coming from Government of Pakistan and Government of Sindh.

Details of Donor contributions, some as credits (loans), some as grants are (in the box);

Credit/Grant Credit

Amount US $ million [50.0

Future Development

The next stage in LBOD development will be to provide drainage in the remainder of the left bank command. Very broadly the priorities would be for subsurface drainage in the north and surface drainage in the south, becau se of increased water applications nearer the system head and higher rainfall in the south. It is likely that the next development will be the start of sub-surface drainage in South Khairpur, Khipro, Tando Adam and Umarkot, the progressive completion of surface drainage throughout the LBOD catchment with the complementary enlargement of the spinal drain system.

The main new irrigation development affecting LBOD would be the proposed Sehwan Barrage. Adequate drainage will be vital if this long awaited improvement to the left bank irrigation system is to achieve its expected benefits.

With higher irrigation intensities horizontal drainage will become more attractive and the next generation of watertable control in Sindh could well tend towards tiles rather than tubewells.

Financing Agency International Development Association (World Bank)

Asian Development Bank (ADB)

Credit 122.0
Credit 10.0
Credit 14.6
Grant 35.7
Grant 10.0
Credit 11.5
Credit 60.7 organisation of Petro leu m Exporting Countries

Canadian International Development Agency

Overseas Development Administration (UK)

Swiss Development Corporation

Islamic Development Bank

Saudi Fund for Development THE ECONOMIC RATE OF RETURN (ERR) IS ESTIMATED AT 12.9%

FUTURE LBOD DEVELOPMENTS

* Salt Transfer Diluted

Undiluted

Alternative routes to Punjab ••••• New Irrigation WorkSct>

9

Salinity and waterlogging in abandoned land

Salinity in cultivated land

Irrigation

The LBOD catchment covers about 5 million acres on the left bank of the River Indus in Sindh. From the Mohenjo Daro era 5000 years ago the development of Sindh has been governed entirely by the waters of the Indus. Even the name Sindh is derived from one of the original names of the Indus.

Fig 2.1

Apart from meagre rainfall cropping, the first methods of cultivation were probably to plant crops on land that had been inundated by the monsoon river floods. This was followed by supplementary supplies from lift irrigation using Persian wheels. The first man-made canals, formed about 500 years ago, were inundation canals dependent on the seasonal rise of the river. By ] 850 irrigation water was supplied to about 10 percent of the area for Kharif (summer) crops. The irrigated area gradually increased until about 100 years later when 100 percent was commanded with the advent of barrage controlled canals (Fig 2.1).

The first barrage in Sindh was completed in 1932 at Sukkur. It diverted perennial supplies to about 80 percent of the LBOD command through the Rohri and Nara canals. the remaining area to the south, traditionally rice growing was provided with non-perennial supplies from Kotri Barrage in 1995.

.... Barrage controlled .... command

perennial! non- perennial

I Barrage

O Inundation

canal command __ Canal

COMMAND AREA'OOO ACRES CCA

Total

LBOD Catchment

Barrage

Gudu Sukkur Kotri

TOTAL

2,802 7,470 2,924

13,196

4,138 1,034

5,172

With high temperatures water is drawn up through soil capillaries and evaporated between the surface and the crop root zone leaving behind salt.

Waterlogging and Salinity In the environment of Sindh continued diversion of Indus water without drainage will inevitably result in waterlogging and salinity which in turn lead to depressed crop yields and eventual loss of cultivable land. The process is illustrated in fig. 2.2.

Figure 2.3 shows how water tables have risen in the Stage-I LEOD component project areas. Before 1932 all areas had water tables below 12 feet, 50 years later 75 percent of these areas had water tables less than 5 feet and 20 percent less than 8 feet. Since 1983 water tables have continued to rise throughou t the Project Area,

If water is added without drainage, the water table will rise, if that water is saline there will be an accumulation of salt (on average 1 ton of salt is added to every irrigated acre in Sindh every year).

Fig 2.2

The diversion of river water has undoubtedly brought prosperity to the region, enabling increased agricultural production and supporting a growing rural population. However the substantial benefits bave not been without price.

PROCESS OF SALINITY AND WATERLOGGING

12

Fig 2.3

APRIL 4

1964

DEPTH TO WATERTABLE

IN COMPONENT PROJECT AREAS

0-511

5-81t

>-8ft

In IIpr,i11932 all watertabtes we re below 8 feet

although the most recent indications are that this rise has stabilised with the commissioning of the majority of the project surface drainage system. In some areas close to the surface drains leve.1s have begun to reduce, and as tube we ll s and tile drains are commissioned this trend will increase. The target is to have the water table stabilised at 7 ft or more below ground level when the Pro~,ect is fully functional.

Waterlogging is concentrated mainly along major canal lines. This is not only the result of canal seepage but also of better water availability in these areas. Tails of canals generally suffer from water shortage and rarely have high water tables. Water tables rise fairly rapidly and tend to stabilise at a level where a balance with ev apora ti on is reac hed. With

projected future water supplies this would be at about 3 feet. Seasonal variations in water table levels are dependent on rainfall; with low winter rains water tables are higher in October than in April because of low consumptive use in winter. However, with heavy monsoon rains the po s i ti oni s reversed.

Salinisation depends on water table depth and irrigation applications. Salts are moved by water either upwards through soil capillaries or down ward by deep perco I ati on.

The closer the water table is to the surface the higher the evaporation; with deep water tables capillary transfer and evaporation decrease rapidly. This upward movement of water is associated with transfer of salts which are deposited in the zone of evaporation either at or beneath the surface.

The salinisation process is sharply reversed by irrigation. Although it is the irrigation water itself which is responsible for the long term build-up of salinity it is nevertheless sufficiently salt free (about 400 parts per million) for irrigation applications. If sufficient water is applied the downward percolation to the water table will remove not only the salt that cannot

Evapc ration from watertable (mrnlday)

Or---~--~----+---~4~--~

be taken up by the crop but the salts that have accumulated through evaporation from capillaries.

Under intensive irrigation salinity can be controlled provided there is drainage to maintain the water at a safe depth or to keep the groundwater moving to prevent salt build-up. On fallow or uncultivated land with high water tables, water movement is upwards and salts will accumulate in the soil profile. If an irrigated area adjoins uncultivated I and dry drai 11 age occ u rs.

Land Use

Due to rising water tables and the associated salinisation of the noncropped areas, fallow land is decreasing and abandoned land increasing. The result is that farmers are forced to intensify cropping on their best land. The illustration below shows this process and highlights the problems that will occur wi th further increases in supply without drainage.

13

ABANDONED

-

further decrease

i n cu I tiva ted area

« o o

a c

Q.l U)

~

o,

Q.l 0:6

- rn .ct:: -0) Q__

(l) rn O?;

PRESENT AND FUTURE SITUATIONS with additional water but without drainage - Sanghar, Kharif case

Increasing supply will initially increase the cropped area but at the expense of decreasing the noncropped area which, in turn, will reduce the dry drainage effect and allow the water table to continue

rising. This will force the farmer to intensify further and all fallow land will be lost. -Eventually the water table will reach a level above which cropping cannot be continued. Once this point has been

reached the are a is on a knife edge; any further increases in supply will cause wholesale abandonment of lanel as the self regulating process of dry drainage becomes dominant.

Already some areas have reached this point where pockets of cultivated land are surviving because they are surrounded by a saline waste. This saline waste is providing the dry drainage required to maintain the water table at a low enough level for cropping.

A future situation where farmers on the higher ground survive at the expense of their neighbours, poses serious social consequences. Once reached it will take many years even with drainage to return the area to its former prosperity.

Soils and Water Table Control

The soils of the Lower Indus Plains are entirely alluvial in origin; the uppermost layers are relatively young and their physical properties reflect their mode of deposition. Most of the soils are silty loams and silty clay loams within a complex textural s tra ti fi cat i on ranging from fine sandy loam to silty clay. Both true clays and sands are rare. Clay minerals are mainly illite with other subsidiary minerals none of which exhibits swelling properties often associated with clays. All soils contain gypsum and calcium carbonate and land which is not cultivated is mainly highly saline and sodic. Non saline sodic soils are rare representing less than 2 percent of the project area. All soils can be reclaimed easily by leaching and special cropping; no chemical additions are necessary.

All soils can be drained at a cost. Some 600 permeability determinations are presented in the LEOD soils report. The most recent results gave median values in m/day of:

Permeability (m/day) Texture Kh (Horizontal) K v (Vertical)

light 5.1 5.1
medium 1.8 0.88
heavy 0.43 0.04 The extreme range reported for vertical permeabili ty (K v) was 0.0085 to 5.2 m/day. With an average drainable surplus of 1.0 ft'/s/sg mile the lowest value of K v that can be accepted is 0.00096 m/day. The worst value encountered is about 10 times this while most normal values are 500 to 1000 times greater. Thus it is not unusual that perched water table conditions are rarely encountered in the project area. In general the

upper soils are from 3 to 5 meters thick and are underlain by a deep un iform medium sand aquifer.

The choice of drainage method to control the water table lies between horizontal (tile drains) and vertical (tubewells). In the south of the M irp urkhas component proj eet there is an area where the aquifer is unsuitable for tubewells, the tile drains are provided there.

The areas being provided with only storm water drainage have a low water table at present which is unlikely to rise in the foreseeable future. In the fresh water area special wells are being installed to skim off the best quality water for irrigation purposes and coincidentally provide the

neces s ary drai n age.

pumped to the disposal channels. The disposal channels are small open surface drains. The area drained by a single pump station vary from 400 to 1200 acres in Mirpurkhas Sub-project with an average area of 900 acres. The disposal channels are designed to carry only the drainage effluent from the pump stations and are no! meant to carry storm water runoff.

The overall performance of tile drains depends upon the proper operation and maintenance of the pump station. If the pump station is in operation then the drains function and lower the watertable, There are some structures like manholes which are meant for

Horizontal Drainage About 60,000 acres of land in Mirpurkhas Sub-project will be provided with tile drains including 65 pump stations.

Tile drains are sub-surface corru gated perfora ted plastic pipes . The material

of the pipes may be polyvinyl chloride (PVC) or polyethylene (PE). Basic net work of field drains or laterals installed to lower the water table are 4 inch dia with graded gravel surround acting as a filter. Field drains are installed at regular intervals of 350 to 650 ft depending upon the characteristics of the soil. Field drains outfall into bigger diameter pipes call ed coli ec tor d rai ns varying in diameter from 6 to 15 inches and have a geotextile surround. The depth of the field drains is 6 to 8 ft below ground surface while that of collector drains vary from 7.5 ft to 11 ft. The collector drains outfall into a sump from where the drainage effluent is

if' l!
V" f
l! f
l! f
If' .. DRAIN
"""-"" PU~ L . fj .. I

=s=t COLLECTOR
.. «:
~ monitoring the drains. If these structures are maintained in good condition then the performance of the drains can be checked whenever reg uired. The landowners are being encouraged to make sure that these structures are not abused or damaged.

Vertical Drainage

The performance of wells was originall y deri ved. from some 83 pump tests carried out in the Lower Indus region and carefully correlated with 255 lithological boreholes. Generally the well depths were about 200 feet and the

16

borehole 450 to 600 feet.

Piezometers in the upper soils and in the lower aquifer moved in during pumping tests although the movement in the upper ones lagged behind owing to the time needed to drain.

At 800 feet from the wen the deep piezometer (d 800) water level dropped by 3.5 feet while the shallow one at the same distance (s 800) dropped by 2.6 feet. Each well had 8 shallow and 8 deep piezometers. And resul ts from these demonstrate the effectiveness of tubeweil drainage. This is also confirmed by the effectiveness of thousands of project wells in Sindh, Fundamentally because there is good hydraulic connection between the upper soils and the deep aquifer, if the pressure is dropped in the aquifer by pumping the water table must drop.

This work enabled predictions to be made for any location and some 2700 wells were successfully constructed in the region prior to LBOD implementation.

In addition [0 these early studies prior to 1983, pi lot studies were undertaken for scavenger wells in 1988-89 and 'special' (smaller capacity) saline wells in 1987-90. These studies identified the areas most suitable for the application of the scavanger well technology and those areas where perrneabili ties were such that more closely spaced saline wells of nominal capacity from 0.6 to 1.5 cusecs were more appropriate than the standard wells.

Horizontal

and

vertical

permeability have been measured both in test wells, and in production wells as implementation has proceeded. The values for the former used for final designs are:

East Nawabshah 1.34 x 10-3 ft/s

West Nawabshah l.56 x 10-' ft/s

Sanghar 0.87 x 10" ft/s

Mirpurkhas 0.56 x ] 0-3 ftJs

Standard

Well Area

Mirpurkbas Special Well Area

0.36 X 10-3 ftls

The lower figure for Mirpurkhas reflects a lower percentage of sand aquifer in the lithology; There is up to 83 percent in Nawabshah and as little as 52 percent in Mirpurkhas.

Discharge water from drainage wells passes to a disposal channel which in turn connects to the main drainage system through a sub-

22 in diameter drilled hole _

TYPICAL WELL FOR NAWABSHAH

drain. This drainage water will be saline with a range of 2000 to 40,000 parts per million (ppm) of total dissolved solids.

Typical Water quality from drainage wells (ppm)

East Nawabshah

17,000

West Nawabshah

9,000

Sanghar

32,000

Mirpurkhas Standard 29,000

Wells Area.

Mirpurkhas Special 32,000

Wells Area.

Surface Drainage

A network of surface drains is reg u ired for th e dis pas al of tubewell or tile effluent and for the removal of surplus irrigation water and storm water. In principle the surface water network is the mirror image of the canalisation network.

The sub-drain will generally be aligned on the command bo u ndaries of the rni n or 0 r distributary canals. The drains will be provided with storm water inlets, approximately one on each watercourse command boundary and at low points. Field drains will be constructed by farmers as necessary for the removal of excess water and flooding. The drain inlets are designed for controlled discharges to avoid overloading the downstream network.

This basic surface drainage facility has been provided throughout the component project areas. In the tubewell and tile drainage areas the system is required immediately for the disposal of saline effluent. In the areas where water table control will not be required until a subsequent stage, surface drainage is still being provided.

The capacity of the surface drainage syst~m is based on the discharge from tubewells and tiles. A freeboard is incorporated varying from 1 foot in the sub-drains, to 2 feet in the branch drains and 4 feet in the outfall drain. This freeboard will ensure that sal ine effluent is kept at a safe level and will provide

17

, , s-: ,
'iU r~j 1'1 -+Sub drain
c: ~II -I
.. 1
<.>
.t:. <:
<.>
<: II -II -I .~
..
ED "'C
~ s:
~ <.>
<:
..
Cii
Minor or t
distributary Main or outfall drain __.

Main canal --)I.-

additional capacity for surface water discharge. During periods of heavy rain the tubewell and tile discharges can be stopped and the full capacity of the drain will he available for storm water runoff.

The network of drains has some provision for canal escapes. However, these have to be operated carefully so as not to overload the system. Once water has entered a drain, whether from a canal escape, a drain inlet, or tubewell/tile disposal channel, it will flowby gravity and without any further control to the tail of the outfall drains. It is therefore vital that the design and operation of the drainage inputs take full account of the danger of merely transferring a drainage problem to a downstream area.

The surface water drainage

network has a benefit in alleviating flooding from storm water. There is a significant variation in rainfall from north to south.

The benefit to surface water drainage alone in the absence of deep drainage is not very high because, under conditions of high water table the soil profile becomes flooded quickly and consequently provides the avoidable storage for excess storm water. This results is a high runoff, a large area flooded and an excessive time to drain, or, a larger capacity system to provide the same drainage facility. Enlarging the system is an expensive proposition for storms that are anyway infrequent.

Used in conjunction with deep drainage the extra capacity available in the soil profile above the water table provides storage for storm water and less runoff results.

The sharp rise in water table that results from this storage can be seen clearly on the automatic water table level recorders used in the project area in 1983. Since flooding only occurs in summer when the cotton crop is in the ground and because cotton is particularly sensitive to standing water, the potential benefits of combined surface and deep drainage are high.

Outfall System

The main problem concerning the outfall is hydraulic gradient. LBOD runs parallel to and at a lower level than the River Indus (which runs on a ridge of its own making) and yet has to discharge to the same level-sea level. In addition it is some 30 miles to the east of an acti ve tielal area. The only other practical outfall for LBOD is the Rann of Kutch. This vast

18

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EXiRA SOIL STORAGE

---r--------------

SURFACE DRAINAGE ONLY

SURFACE & DEEP DRAINAGE

evaporating pan with no significant connection to the sea extends 300 miles to the east, along the Indo - Pakistan border and is the drainage basin for an immense area, most of which is in India. The area between the Rann and the Arabian Sea is composed of bare tidal mud flats intersected by active tidal creeks.

Dhoro Puran would have been the natural choice for the LBOD outfall but due to an earthquake in 1819 its outlet is now isolated from the Rann and Shakoor Dhand has been formed. It is not practicable to consider excavating a link to the Rann in Indian territory. There is a link from LBOD RD 159 via Dhoro Puran to Shakoor Dhand but for ecological reasons saline effluent should not be discharged into Shakoor Dhand and its environs.

The western route via KPOD, an existing outfall drain for Kotri Barrage surface drainage, was the

only logical choice for disposal of saline effluent . It can outfall into the Pateji Dhand complex which would in turn connect into the Rann. This arrangement has the disadvantage of high tail water levels causing significant backing up of the LEOD. High rainfall in August 1983 caused Rann levels to rise upto 8 to 10 feet above sea level (ASL), compared with dry year levels of 3 to 5 feet ASL. These high levels reduce gradually over a period of several months. After several dry years the Rann is virtually a salt flat with some shallow salt lakes at about 1 to 2 feet ASL.

An alternative would have been to construct an embankment from the Pateji Dhand outlet southwards parallel with the Indian border and south-west to join the high tidal lands. This arrangement whilst

protecting against the high monsoon levels of the Rann, would reduce the area for evaporation and a connection to an active tidal creek would be necessary .

The most attractive arrangement from hydraulic considerations was to continue LBOD to Shah Samando, the nearest active tidal creek. Water levels in the creek vary from +6.5 feet ASL maximum to -5.5 feet ASL. Mathematical modeling has shown that at high tide saline intrusion would extend 12 miles inland from the outfall and variation in water level due to tidal effects would be limited to a maximum of 1 foot at a distance of 30 miles. The banks of this tidal link would be constructed to protect against 10 feet ASL Rann levels, which as in the previous alternative would protect Kotri command cultivation.

19

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Agriculture

One of the main task undertaken during project preparation was to ensure that the agricultural sector had the potential to expand as a result of LBOD implementation. No specific investment in agriculture being made under the project apart from that in On Farm Water Management and a monitoring role in the farm

mech ani sati on

programme.

Land ownership, tenure and farm size patterns are not expected to change under the project and are not considered to be a major constraint on development.

A programme of monitoring has however been undertaken by the Sindh Development Studies Centre (SDSC) based at Jamshoro University working with Consultants from ITAD and Wye College (University of London).

For all areas cotton in summer and wheat in winter occupy some two thirds of the land sown in those seasons. Sugar cane is important in Nawabshah and Sanghar while mangoes are s j gnifi can t in Mirpurkhas. Oilseeds and fodder account for most of the rest of the cropping.

There has been a steady increase in

yields of wheat over the past ten years and srna l le r increas es in cotton and sugar cane, In spite of these achievements there is considerab Le poten ti a I for improvement

The Government of Pakistan has encouraged the use of fertilisers. Manufacture and distribution are in the hands of the private sector and is operating reasonably well.

Most farm labour is supplied by share cropping tenants and their families supplemented by seasonal hired labour. On the 14 study watercourses 40 per cent of farmers reported some seasonal Ia bour shortage while 60 per cent said that there was no shortage. With increasing mechanisation and the projected rural population growth rate, labour availability is not expected to be a constraint on future agricultural developmen t.

Crop marketing and processing is mainly undertaken by the private sector but there is substantial government involvement in price fixing involving guaranteed prices for wheat, seed cotton, sugar cane and paddy rice announced before harvesting begins. Government intentions are be lie verl to be to bring prices into line with world market levels.

On Farm Water Management

One of the better methods of providing the farmer with more water for growing crops is to avoid wasting it in the first place. This is the function of the On Farm Water Management (OFWM) programme which is being executed in the Naw abshah, Sanghar and M i rpu rkh as are as u rider the auspices of the Department of Agriculture of the Government of Sindh. The main roles of this programme are to encourage the improvement of watercourses, to reduce seepage losses and to assist in precision land levelling (PLL) to improve the efficiency of watering. Demonstration centres have also been set up to show farmers how they can improve their agricultural efficiency. A free design and supervision service is provided to the fanners and also a subsidy for 75 percent of the cost of material invol ved in watercourse improvement. For precision land levelling a free su rvey service is provided and also a subsidised hire serv ice of scraper blade attachments for wheeled tractors.

Su bstantial benefits have deri ved from the OFWM work on water courses but farmer interest in precision land levelling has been more difficult,

It is now planned that 1480 watercourses in the project area wi II have been improved and 80,000 acres of land levelled by the end of 1997.

Demonstration plots and centres have also been set up to show farmers how they can improve their agricultural efficiency by making best use of seed types and other inputs. Irrigation agronomy Field Teams are employed to visit vi 11 ages to arrange th e demonstration plots and hold training courses.

22

Canal Remodelling

The essential benefit of LBOD will be to enable crop areas to increase without danger from waterlogging and salinity. The additional irrigation supplies will come from measures taken within component projects and from sources outside the component projects.

Within Component Projects:

• on farm water management and land levelling will reduce irrigation losses,

• scavenger wells and interceptor drains will recover some of the inevitable losses,

• remodelling internal canals to carry additional water from external sources and improving canal operation,

Outside Component Projects:

• river supplies from

Tarbela/KaJabagh and re-routing Kotri escapage.,

• local storages, such as Chotiari Reservoir.

• remodeling the Rohri and Nara main canal systems to carry the additional water.

All the above inputs were planned

to be implemented during the LBOD Stage I programme period and to result in a 50 per cent increase in water availability and a 40 percent increasei n cropped areas. The difference reflects the present degree of underwatering.

Downstream of Sukkur Barrage the major works are the remodelling of the Rohri and Nara canal systems and the construction of Chotiari Reservoir. These works, except for Rohri remodelling, which was undertaken separately, form part of LBOD Stage-I.

The N ara canal can presently take about 13,000 ft31, satisfactorily. To increase the capacity to the required 20,000 fe' remodelling work is required on some restricting sections. Fall structures are being constructed to reduce the canal's gradient in the upper reaches and stabilise its bed. In the lower reaches embankments are to be raised and dredging undertaken to increase capacity.

The complex of works required at Jamrao Head include a sand ejector and settling basin and a new twin

canal parallel to the Jamraa and the enlargement of Ranto Escape and Canal to feed Chotiari Reservoir. Most of the canals downstream have been remodelled to take the additional discharges. Lining has not been considered for this stage, some of the seepage losses are being retrieved through interceptor drains and scavenger wells. However, for future development twinning canals does afford a means of lining canals with minimum interruption of flow.

Water is available in the river for increasing supplies to this and other projects, but mainly between June and October, in December/January and April/May, when upstream

NSlW Paf;;:JII el Canal

23

storages are being drawn down for maintenance and flood reserve. At present much is being lost below Kotri Barrage, particularly in July/August. However, storage is required to regulate these supplies to meet the demand over a complete crop season.

Approximately 0.8 million acre feet (MAF) storage is being created for the LBOD and other projects in the area by raising the level of the existing Chotiari Lakes to RL 87.50. The new reservoir will be filled from the Nara through the Ranto Escape at times of high river flow.

The reservoir, and associated Canal remodelling also being undertaken as part of LBOD, are required to improve irrigation supplies, mainly in relation to parts of the Sanghar and Mirpurk has components in the Jamrao Canal Command. Remodelling of the Nara Canal, from the headwork at Sukkur Barrage to the head of the J amrao Canal some 120 miles to the south, will allow the design discharge capacity to be increased. This will allow Chotiari Reservoir to be filled via the remodelled Ranto Canal and will result in additional water being available to the Jamrao system, where water availability currently constrai ns production.

Realignment of part of the Lower Nara Canal, which is part of the Chotiari reservoi r Contract, will aIlow restoration of the original (1932) design supplies to the Fresh area which is fed from the tail of the Lower Nara Canal, and has been starved of water for decades.

The Indus Flood Water stored in Choriari Reservoir will be released in the winter and early summer months to the Lower N ara Canal. Water which would otherwise be drawn from the Nara Canal for this

supply will be available for the

Jarnr ao

Command

areas.

local excavation.

The reservoir embankment commences as the Northern Bund at the outfall of the Ranta Canal and loops around to protect the principal areas of agricultural land in Deh Akenvari.

The embankment alignment then generally follows that of the existing Lower Nara Canal from RD 106 to RD 152 at Makhi Weir. From Makhi Weir to RD 208 at Bakar village the canal is to be realigned to improve its flow characteristics and increase its capacity.

Specific environmental and resettlement isssues concerning the Chotiari Reservoir are described in chapter 7.

·SCHEMATIC SCAVENGER WELL

24

The area being incorporated within the reservoir comprises some 43,000 acres of mainly swampy land including several existing lakes which are already used for annual storage of irrigation water. There are also scattered pockets of land which have been cleared for agriculture. The major area of farmed land in the area is in Deh Aken vari and the reservoir has been specifically designed to avoid disturbing this area.

The reservoir will be formed by construction of a 55 km long earth embankment of up to 35 feet in height faced with stone protection. Some 250 million cu ft of fill will be pl aced and compacted from

Scavenger Wells

Along the major canals III the Nawabshah and Sanghar areas there are extensive areas where layers of fresh groundwater overlie deeper saline water. The problem of extracting the fresh water is not new and it is conventionally tackled by using skimming wells. If these are properly designed only fresh water will enter the well, but the drawback is that only very small capacity wells can be used in this way. A second method is draw a normal discharge and accept that when the well becomes saline it must be abandoned and a new well drilled. This has been done by farmers in the area in the past and requires them to drill a new well every 3 years or so.

The solution preferred here is the scavenger welL It relies on the fact that once a well begins pumping a permanent stream line pattern is formed and that the saline water lies quite distinctly below a certain streamline.

The areas in which scavenger wells are to be used require drainage and the primary purpose of the wells will be for this use. The fact that a proportion of the water can be recovered is a bonus albeit a very large bonus in terms of benefits. The wells themselves are the same as the standard wells on the project except that a 10 inch instead of an 8 inch screen IS used to accommodate the saline submersible pump.

Fresh water is pumped from the

WELL

STREAMLINE PATTERN

STATIC WATER LEVELS

SALINE

upper part of the well with the usual arrangement but the saline water is pumped with a small pump at the bottom of the well positioned at about the level of the saline/fresh water interface. Saline water is discharged to a small drain whilist the fresh water is used for irrigation. The proportions of fresh and saline water depend on the depth to the saline layer and the depth of the well. Typically about a half to a third of the discharge would be saline.

Interceptor Drains

Canal seepage is one of the major contributions to waterlogging and salinity in Sindh. Long stretches of some of the major canals have created lakes and swamp land outside the canal banks. In other cases where seepage is somewhat less, but nevertheless has raised the adjacent water table, there are wide bands of abandoned saline land beside the canal. The most effective method of dealing with the problem is to line the canal, but the cost of so doing is prohibitive and the necessary closure of canals while lining is carried out would be unacceptable.

Another possibility would be to place a vertical cut-off barrier beside the canal to reduce seepage. The seepage could be reduced by up to two thirds providing that the barrier is about 50 feet deep. However the cost of over Rs 25,000 per foot run of canal would be prohibitive.

The third and preferred method is to install interceptor drains along the outer toe of the canal embankment. A number of

. configurations have been studied both by analog and finite element models and the results checked with empirical solutions obtained

25

from field studies. As is often the case, the best solution is something of a compromise. This arises because more effective control of the water tabLe is achieved by increasing the depth of the interceptor but, in turn, this increase s the seepage from the canal. Placing 6 to ] 2 inch diameter pipes at 12 feet below ground level

at the outside of the bank will lower the water table by some 5 feet beyond the drain.

Water in interceptor drains is fresh and usable directly for irrigation. To that end it will pumped into convenient minor canals or a series of watercourses for direct use by

the farmers wherever possible.

Pump stations are spaced at between 1.5 to 2.5 miles apart and have discharges of 1 to 2.5 cusecs. Interceptor drains are only provided next to the main and branch canals where seepage is a major problem.

26

--~-II

Project Management and Control

The importance of the LBOD Project to Sindh demands a management organisation that will adequately represent the diversity of interests involved, both from the federal and provincial viewpoints. A strong lead must be provided by the Provincial Government with its dep artmen ts of agricu I tu re, irrigation and power deeply involved.

Central Government's role in project approval and as the source for channeling external finance through to the Provincial Government is clear. WAPDA also has a major role to playas the main executive agency for project implementation. To provide the strong lead and to represent all of these interests a Project Steering Committee was formed early in the life of the Project. This comprises the following principal members:

Project Steering Committee • Chairman

Additional Chief Secretary Planning and Development - Sindh Government (GOS)

• Members Secretary

Irrigation and Power (GOS) Secretary - Agriculture (GOS) Secretary Finance (OOS)

General Manager (South)-WAPDA

• Coopted Members Commissioner Sukkur Commissioner Hyderabad Commissioner Mirpurkhas

The General Manager (South) is Secretary to the Project Steering Committee which generally meets at least quarterly.

Control

At the operational level the project would be managed by an Integrated Management Organisation (IMO) headed by a Chief Engineer (WAPDA) and advised by the Chief Resident Engineer of the overall consultants. There are Project Directors for each component project. The irrigation & OFWM components are managed by the IPD Chief Engineer Nara/Jarnrao Remodelling & Director General OFWM agriculture De ptt. G. O. S. res pecti vely.

Design and Monitoring of Implementation

The WAPDA Project Director of Centra I Design and Moni to ri n g (CD&M) works closely with the project consultants in design and planning and monitoring of the implementation stage. In the early stage of the project the principal role of consultants was planning and preparing design criteria for the component projects, carrying out detailed design, preparation of bids, prequalification of contractors and evaluation of tenders.

Physical Monitoring

It is essential to monitor the progress of the Project towards achieving its objectives.

Under an agreement with IMO the Scarp Monitoring Organisation (SMO) South are charged with the observation of discharges of canals and drains, monitoring the specific capacities of tubewells, preparing water balance studies and tidal link monitoring. The Alluvial Channel Observation Proj ect (ACOP), now renamed as the International Sediment Research Institute of Pakistan (ISRIP), are ass i gned the res po ns i bi li ty for discharge measurement and water

balance studies and the National Institute of Oceanography (NIO) are assigned the responsibility for the Tidal Link monitoring.

Socio-Economic Monitoring The Sindh Development Studies Centre (SDSC) based at Jarnshoro Uni vers ity leads the soci o

economic

monitoring

and

evaluation studies in the Project area. Studies are made covering all aspects of rural life both agricultural and social to gauge the effects of the works on the population.

Studies are carried out in association with TTAD Consultants and Wye College (Uni versity of London).

WAPDA's own socio-economic group is charged with visiting farmers and landowners within the project area prior to construction to discuss the effects of project implementation on their individual land holdings. Publicity for the Project is broadcast on local radio station and on national and local television.

A full communications strategy to inform the population of the Project area is being implemented under the guidance of the Director of Economic Coordination.

Operation and Maintenance

If the Project is to succeed and to be viable in the medium to long term then effective operation and maintenance is of paramount importance.

Responsibility for operation and maintenance of drainage system was transferred from IPD to WAPDA on 1 January 1995, in accordance with a directive issued

28

by the Prime Minister. A new directorate of operation and maintenance (O&M) has been formed, based in the WAPDA Central Office in Hyderabad, and as of early 1995 a small number of staff appointed. These include a Director and three Executive Engineers covering civi I and mechanical engineering activities. All drainage works constructed under LBOD and handed over to the Irrigation and Power Department previously have now been handed back to WAPDA for O&M.

WAPDA's immediate priority is to ensure that the LEOD Spinal Drain and LEOD branch drains system will be able to operate at the required capacity by the start of the 1995 monsoon season. Contracts have been prepared for desilting of LBOD branch drain system and draglines have started to excavate badly silted sections of the Spinal Drain in the Sanghar area.

Assistance with planning operation and maintenance activities is being provided by the project consultants. An O&M Strategy is being developed including options for

pri vate sector involvement. A series of workshops are being run to identify and discuss options which reflect the view of the different parties affected, including contractors and farmers. The chosen strategy will probably include the use of pilot performance contracts to establish the most effecti ve choices and will aim to minimise the numbers of O&M staff required in WAPDA, and to ensure that equipment and workshops already supplied under the project are managed and used efficiently.

29

Economic Viability

It is well known that the farmers in Sindh react quickly to the provision of extra inputs. For example new high yielding varieties have been adopted and widespread use is made of fertilisers, whereas 20 years ago such use was negligible. It is also known that increased water supplies are soon taken up both to increase applications to existing cropping and to extend the crop area. It bas also been clearly demonstrated that (he value of surface drainage is understood in that storm water is presently run off by the farmers to the few drains that exist or to nearby depressions. Less well known is their attitude to subsoil drainage although there are some indications that the need is realised. Therefore, it is considered that the farming community will respond to the new provisions of the project and it is on this basis that the benefits are confidently projected and are already being seen.

Agricultural benefits arise from increased yields and from an increased area of crops. These will both build up in the course of time as the component projects are completed and the new conditions introduced and adopted. World Bank projections of crop prices have been used to evaluate these benefits.

The project was approved in 1984 with the objective of restoring and increa sing th e a gri cu I rural productivity of 1.3 million acres of irrigable land and in order to provide direct benefits to the mainly poor population of 910,000 persons and indirect benefits to a further 21000. Over the decade to 1995 environmental conditions ha ve deteriorated more quickly than expected and crop production

has stagnated despi te improvements in agricultural technology. After a slow start, there has since 1992 been a dramatic increase in the pace of Project implementation, so that the surface drainage system was by the start of 1995 almost complete. A Mid Term Review (MTR) in 1993 found that the project is sti Il viable and needed, and that its performance and sustainability can be enhanced by increased public participation. The MTR estimated that the project would produce the following annual incremental benefits:

• Production:

402,000 mt of wheat, 309,000 mt of seed cotton, 127,000 mt of sugar, 218,000 mt of green fodder and moderate increases in other agricultural products.

• Direct Beneficiartes:

In excess of 1 million persons.

• Income Levels:

Tenants' income will increase by an average of 135 percent, while that of owner cultivators will more than double. Annual Income of the average tenant fanner expected to increase to Rs. 6,500 compared to Rs. 2,800 without the project.

• Employment:

Agricultural employ ment would increase by 45 percent or 48,000 man-year equivalents in addition to about 90,000 man-year equivalents of unskilled labour during the 14 years construction period.

• Foreign Exchange:

About US$ 208 M equivalent per annum.

• Other Benefits:

Reduced storm water damage to crops and stormwater and high

water table damage to regional infrastructure would amount to Rs, 453 million per year.

Employment and Income Effects

The population of the project area IS expected to double during the project development period (1985 - 2010). "Without" the project underemployment during slack periods is likely to be a major socio-ecnomic problem. The project will generate additional farm labour requirements of about 48,000 man year equivalents, a 45 percent increase over the "without" project case. The project's construction activities are also generating substantial employment

opportu n i ties. Addi tional

employment during the

construction period has been estimated at 90,000 man-year equivalents of primarily unskilled labour. Additional jobs will also be generated by the projects annual O&M activities. Availability of labour for both construction and increased onfarm activities is not expected to constrain the project, especially si nce labour from surrounding areas can also be drawn upon if necessary.

Approximately 140,000 farm families are expected to benefit directly from the project through substantial increases in net farm incomes. Around 74 percent of land is cultivated by tenants or sharecroppers, the average area fanned being 12 acres. At full development the annual income of an average tenant farmer is expected to increase substantially to about Rs. 6,500 as compared to Rs. 2,800 per capita without the project. Based on existing arrangements for allocation of farm reven ue and costs sharecroppers and tenants would continue to

32

receive slightly under 50 percent of farm income. It follows therefore that around 50 percent of the project's farm income benefits should accrue to share croppers and tenants who currently have average per capita incomes, below Rs. 3,000.

Economic Analysis

The results of the economic analysis show that Pakistan's economy may be expected to realize total net benefits from project investments of about Rs. 3 billion in present value terms. The project is expected to achieve an economic rate of return of 12.9 percent, this is only 0.6 percent lower than was estimated at appraisal in 1984 despite a considera bly leng the ned implementation period and cost

,

escalation. Improvements 111

. agric u l tural and other s upp art services would be needed to increase returns above this level. The main reason for the modest drop in ERR is that crop production "without project" is expected to stagnate, whereas some growth was projected at appraisal.

Base Case Economic Analysis Results (Rs. million)

Net Present Value Costs 8,058

(40 yrs @ 10 percent)

Net Present Value 11,089

Benefits

NPV Incremental 3,031

Benefits

Benefit.: Cost Ratio

4:1

Reduced stormwater damage to crops and stormwater and high water tab led amage to regi onal infrastructure would amount to Rs. 453 million per year. Additional benefits which have not been quantified in the economic analysis include: :improvements to the population's health through the removal of standing water, improved disposal of sullage and rural electrification. Electrification installations for the project tube wells and sump pumps are being installed with a 20 percent additional capacity to allow for this.

Due to size and scope LBOD Stage-I will inevitably generate additional economic effects which are not captured in the analysis of pri mary benefits. Analysi s of secondary impact at project preparation showed that for each Rs. 1.0 M increase indirect value added in the agricultural sector, an additional Rs. J.4 M of value added would be generated in the provincial economy. About half of this induced expenditure would be generated by increased onfarm activity and incomes, and about half by increased activity in agroprocessing and distributive trades and services.

Economic Rate of Return (ERR)

12.9 %

Other Benefits

The annual gross foreign exchange value of incremental production of tradables (wheat, cotton lint and sugar) generated by the project at full development is expected to be around Rs. 6,800 M. The additional foreign exchange cost of agric ul tural in puts (M ainly fertiliser and pesticide) would be around Rs. 600 M/year . These costs are expressed in constant 1992/93 O.S. dollars on the basis of projected international prices. On this basis the project's identifiable direct foreign exchange effect would be around US$ 208 milli only ear.

33