USC Faculty Lecture 7
USC Faculty Lecture 7
USC Faculty Lecture 7
Virtual Worlds
Episode 7 - The Future - 4/22/08
cory ondrejka - [email protected]
this is our last session, so
interrupt and ask questions!
the future
or, more precisely
(informed) guesswork on the
(many) futures of virtual worlds
where “future”
==
“5 or more years from now”
why 5 or more?
lots happening in next 1-2 years
the 800-lb
Gorilla
will do something
open source will continue to
improve and explore design space
100 new kids worlds
100 new kids worlds
(and explore
secondary
markets)
[insert
thousands
of advertisement worlds
here]
many
web + virtual world
and
virtual world + web
mashups
new players
more ways to build you
and if we give ourselves
1-2 years
then certainly
(almost certainly)
spore will launch
maybe even sony home
(resulting in game developers
talking about
user generated content)
but we know all this
so it isn’t very interesting
and doesn’t help us
identify research areas
build new curricula
make long-term investments
so what happens if we look out
further into the future?
first off, we’ll be wrong
a lot
we’re wired wrong
bad at long term predictions
exponential reality
linear predictions
less short term change
more long term change
than we predict
worse, bad predictions compound
25x mips,
same size
25x can be hard to visualize
25x mips,
same size
25x can be hard to visualize
a zillion dollars
to simulate
a table is the
best
we can do?
40 years ago mouse + keyboard
was the new hotness!
in 1968, the mouse + keyboard
was the new hotness!