Market Outlook: Dealer's Diary
Market Outlook: Dealer's Diary
Market Outlook: Dealer's Diary
Dealers Diary
Indian markets are expected to open higher today in spite of flat opening in SGX
Nifty and mixed opening in Asian markets after the government opened the doors
to greater foreign direct investment.
US markets moved modestly lower over the course of the trading day on Tuesday,
after trending higher over the past few weeks. There were renewed concerns
regarding the Federal Reserves stimulus program which inspired some traders to
sell-off. The weakness was partly in reaction to Kansas City Federal Reserve
Presidents remarks against the recent policy actions. Today, the markets would
look forward to Fed Chairman Ben Bernankes testimony before the House
Financial Services Committee. Meanwhile European markets ended Tuesdays
session in the red affected by the unexpected decline in the German ZEW investor
confidence.
Domestic Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
BSE Sensex
(0.9)
Nifty
(1.3)
(76)
5,955
MID CAP
(1.4)
(88)
6,014
SMALL CAP
(0.8)
(45)
5,737
BSE HC
(0.5)
(46)
9,383
BSE PSU
(1.0)
(61)
5,906
BANKEX
(4.8)
(651) 12,821
AUTO
(0.6)
(65) 10,569
METAL
(1.9)
(148)
7,635
0.7
65
8,929
(0.2)
(14)
6,809
(Pts)
(Close)
(183) 19,851
BSE IT
Dow Jones
(0.2)
Markets Today
NASDAQ
(0.2)
(9)
3,599
FTSE
(0.5)
(30)
6,556
The trend deciding level for the day is 19,797/ 5,944 levels. If NIFTY trades above
this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally
up to 19,945 20,038 / 5,977 5999 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below
19,797 / 5,944 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to
19,704 19,556/ 5,922 5,889 levels.
Indices
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
SENSEX
19,556
19,704
19,797
19,945
20,038
NIFTY
5,889
5,922
5,944
5,977
5,999
News Analysis
Global Indices
Nikkei
Hang Sang
Straits Times
(32) 15,452
0.6
93 14,599
0.0
9 21,312
(0.4)
(12)
3,225
0.3
2,066
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
0.3
0.1
$46.4
WIT
(0.4)
(0.0)
$7.9
IBN
(3.9)
(1.5)
$36.5
HDB
(2.5)
(0.9)
$36.3
Shanghai Com
Indian ADR
INFY
Advances / Declines
BSE
NSE
1,316
790
Declines
991
537
Unchanged
138
81
Advances
Chg (%)
Purch
1,906
426
Sales
2,083
325
Net
(177)
101
MTD
(5,578)
(666)
YTD
65,729
(12,843)
Purch
2,056
1,911
Sales
2,321
2,350
Net
(265)
(438)
Open Interest
13,778
28,717
Gainers / Losers
Company
Gainers
Price (`)
chg (%)
Neyveli Lignite
62
4.3
Company
Yes Bank
Losers
Price (`)
chg (%)
452
(9.8)
Biocon
306
3.9
68
(9.7)
Siemens
578
2.5
IRB Infra
95
(9.6)
Godrej Cons
890
2.4
Ashok Leyland
16
(9.5)
Castrol India
342
2.4
Oriental Bank
183
(9.0)
www.angelbroking.com
Volumes (` cr)
BSE
1,888
NSE
10,377
Market Outlook
July 17, 2013
Result Review
Ashok Leyland (CMP: `16/ TP: Under Review/ Upside: -)
Ashok Leyland (AL) reported extremely disappointing performance for
1QFY2014 as EBITDA margins collapsed to 1% witnessing a severe decline of
697bp yoy (433bp qoq). The margin contraction was on account of a
significant decline in volumes (21.3% yoy (37.2% qoq) leading to lower
utilization levels and also due to higher discounts and inferior product-mix.
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
July 17, 2013
Additionally, higher interest cost (up 20.8% yoy and 21.6% qoq) due to higher
working capital requirement also impacted the bottom-line.
ALs top-line for the quarter registered a steep decline of 21.9% yoy (36.6%
qoq) to `2,364cr which was broadly in-line with our estimates. The top-line
declined primarily on account of a 21.3% yoy (37.3% qoq) decline in volumes
following slowdown in the industrial activity. While medium and heavy
commercial vehicle sales declined by 26.7% yoy (36.8% qoq); Dost sales too
registered a drop of 5.8% yoy (38.1% qoq). At the operating level, EBITDA
margins registered a sharp contraction of 697bp yoy (433bp qoq) to a
meager 1% as against our estimates of 4.5%, largely on account of higher
discounts and lower utilization levels. Consequently, other expenditure and
staff cost as a percentage of sales surged 170bp (120bp qoq) and 210bp yoy
(330bp qoq) respectively. Further, raw-material expenditure as a percentage
of sales too increased 320bp yoy (flat qoq) to 75.5% although in value terms it
declined 22.4% yoy (36.8% qoq). As a result, operating profit declined
substantially by 90.3% yoy (88.3% qoq) to `23cr. Led by disappointing
operating performance and a significant increase in interest expense; AL
reported a net loss of `135cr as against our expectations of a loss of `74cr.
We shall release a detailed result note post earnings conference call with the
management which is scheduled today. Until then, the stock rating is under
review.
Y/E
March
Sales
OPM
PAT EPS
(` cr)
ROE
P/E
P/BV
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
(` cr)
(%)
(`)
(%)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
FY2014E
14,038
7.6
278 1.1
6.2
15.1
1.3
5.2
0.4
FY2015E
16,442
8.7
594 2.2
12.5
7.1
1.2
3.3
0.3
Result Preview
HDFC Bank (CMP: `679/ TP: - 752 / Upside: - 10.9%)
HDFC Bank is expected to announce healthy set of results for 1QFY2014. The NII
is expected to increase by 25.1% yoy to `4,360cr, while non-interest income is
expected to come in at `1,885cr, thus achieving a healthy growth of 23.2% yoy.
Despite healthy growth of 24.6% yoy in operating Income, Operating profit is
expected to grow by just 22.0% yoy, due to a strong growth of 27.3% yoy in
operating expenses. Provisioning is expected to be `455cr compared to `487cr in
1QFY2013. Consequently the PAT is expected to increase by 30.1% yoy to
`1,845cr. The stock is currently trading at a valuation of 3.8x P/ABV FY2014E and
3.2x P/ABV FY2015E. Hence, we retain Accumulate rating on the stock.
Y/E
Op. Inc
NIM
PAT
EPS
ABV
ROA
ROE
P/E
P/ABV
(` cr)
(%)
(` cr)
(`)
(%)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
FY2014E
27,560
4.6
8,640
36.3 180.2
1.9
21.8
18.7
3.8
FY2015E
33,766
4.6 10,722
45.1 215.0
1.9
22.8
15.1
3.2
March
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
July 17, 2013
1QFY14E
1QFY13
y-o-y (%)
4QFY13
q-o-q (%)
1,821
1,417
28.5
1,890
(4)
1QFY14E
1QFY13
y-o-y (%)
4QFY13
q-o-q (%)
1,396
1,154
21.1
16
8880
1QFY14E
1QFY13
y-o-y (%)
4QFY13
q-o-q (%)
466
427
9.0
555
(16)
1QFY14E
1QFY13
y-o-y (%)
4QFY13
q-o-q (%)
475
282
68.3
436
8.9
1QFY14E
1QFY13
y-o-y (%)
4QFY13
q-o-q (%)
Net sales
17,628
14,869
18.6
16,425
Net profit
3,744
3,281
14.1
3,597
1QFY14E
1QFY13
y-o-y (%)
4QFY13
q-o-q (%)
4,829
4,714
4,651
EBITDA
906
872
790
15
18.8
18.5
Net profit
742
718
Net profit
17.0
3
766
Corporate News
Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint
www.angelbroking.com
(3)
Market Outlook
July 17, 2013
Result Calendar
Date
Company
HDFC Bank
TCS, Axis Bank, Kotak Mah. Bank, IDBI Bank, D B Corp, Rallis, Mindtree, Infotech Enterprises, Honeywell Automation
HDFC, Bajaj Auto, Federal Bank, CRISIL, UCO Bank, Hexaware, NIIT
HT Media
Tata Sponge
Nestle, CESC
Force Motors
Time
Unit
Period
Bloomberg Data
Last Reported Estimated
2:00PM
UK
% Change
Jun
(8.60)
(8.00)
6:00PM
US
Housing Starts
Thousands
Jun
914.00
960.00
6:00PM
US
Building permits
Thousands
Jun
985.00
1,000.00
6:00PM
US
Thousands
Jul 13
360.00
341.00
7:30PM
US
Million
Jun
5.18
5.27
7:30PM
Value
Jul A
(18.80)
--
1:00PM
Value
Jul A
50.40
--
1:00PM
Value
Jul A
48.60
--
7:30PM
US
Thousands
Jun
476.00
484.00
2:00PM
UK
GDP (YoY)
% Change
2Q A
0.30
--
11:00AM
India
Jul 30
7.25
--
11:00AM
India
Jul 30
4.00
--
11:00AM
India
Jul 30
6.25
--
7:30PM
US
Consumer Confidence
S.A./ 1985=100
Jul
81.40
--
1:25PM
Thousands
Jul
(12.00)
--
6:00PM
US
% Change
2Q A
1.80
--
11:30PM
US
Jul 31
0.25
--
Market Outlook
July 17, 2013
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
(%)
(%)
10.0
11.4
9.2
6.0
4.0
0.6
Apr-13
Feb-13
(%)
Mfg. PMI
58.0
8.0
(1.6)
Jan-13
Jun-12
4QFY13
3QFY13
2QFY13
1QFY13
4QFY12
3QFY12
2QFY12
1QFY12
4QFY11
3QFY11
2QFY11
1QFY11
4QFY10
3QFY10
(4.0)
(1.0) (0.6)
(0.7)
(2.0)
May-13
(0.1)
(2.0)
Dec-12
4.7 4.8
Services PMI
8.1
7.3
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
7.2
7.3
7.3
7.3
56.0
5.7
4.8
4.7
4.9
54.0
52.0
May-13
Apr-13
Mar-13
Feb-13
Jan-13
Dec-12
Nov-12
Oct-12
Sep-12
Aug-12
Jul-12
Jun-12
May-12
Apr-12
48.0
Mar-12
Jun-13
May-13
Apr-13
Mar-13
Feb-13
Jan-13
Dec-12
Nov-12
Sep-12
Aug-12
50.0
Oct-12
9.0
1.9
2.0
Nov-12
6.0
3.4
2.5
2.0
Oct-12
6.5
Mar-13
7.5
Sep-12
7.7
Aug-12
8.6
8.4
8.0
9.9
Jul-12
9.5
9.3
2QFY10
12.0
11.0
10.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
(%)
9.00
15.0
CRR
8.00
7.00
6.00
Jun-13
May-13
Apr-13
Mar-13
Feb-13
Jan-13
Dec-12
Nov-12
Oct-12
Sep-12
Aug-12
Jul-12
0.0
5.00
4.00
www.angelbroking.com
Jun-13
May-13
Apr-13
Mar-13
Feb-13
Jan-13
Dec-12
Nov-12
Oct-12
Sep-12
Aug-12
(15.0)
Jul-12
3.00
Market Outlook
July 17, 2013
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
Sales ( cr )
FY14E
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
Neutral
151
2,936
1,657
1,906
14.1
14.1
7.7
8.9
19.6
17.0
4.1
3.5
22.2
21.9
1.7
1.5
United Phosphorus
Buy
138
232
6,101
10,298
11,310
16.5
16.5
20.5
23.2
6.7
5.9
1.1
1.0
18.0
17.4
0.6
0.5
Accumulate
252
285
4,311
3,418
3,892
14.5
14.5
18.5
20.4
13.7
12.4
3.3
2.7
26.6
23.8
1.3
1.1
Apollo Tyres
Neutral
68
3,437
13,852
15,487
11.4
11.5
12.8
14.9
5.3
4.6
0.9
0.7
17.5
17.3
0.4
0.4
Ashok Leyland
Buy
16
27
4,204
14,038
16,442
7.6
8.7
1.1
2.2
15.1
7.1
1.3
1.2
6.2
12.5
0.4
0.3
Automotive Axle#
Neutral
215
325
834
965
9.3
10.6
17.3
27.1
12.4
8.0
1.2
1.1
9.5
14.0
0.5
0.4
Bajaj Auto
Accumulate
1,904
2,096
55,103
23,005
26,460
18.0
18.5
118.8
139.7
16.0
13.6
5.8
4.6
40.4
37.7
2.0
1.7
Bharat Forge
Neutral
223
5,194
6,198
6,793
14.6
14.9
14.5
17.3
15.4
12.9
2.0
1.8
13.6
14.7
1.0
0.8
Bosch India*
Accumulate
8,565
9,213
26,892
9,821
11,394
17.0
17.3
373.5
438.7
22.9
19.5
4.1
3.5
18.0
17.9
2.4
2.0
CEAT
Buy
112
170
383
5,325
5,974
8.4
8.3
40.8
48.5
2.7
2.3
0.4
0.4
17.3
17.6
0.2
0.2
Exide Industries
Accumulate
124
141
10,519
7,053
8,061
14.2
14.5
7.8
9.1
15.8
13.6
2.7
2.3
18.1
18.2
1.2
1.0
FAG Bearings*
Neutral
1,445
2,401
1,525
1,742
14.5
15.7
88.4
109.5
16.3
13.2
2.4
2.0
15.5
16.5
1.4
1.2
Hero Motocorp
Accumulate
1,693
1,820
33,803
25,298
27,665
14.1
13.7
110.3
140.0
15.4
12.1
5.6
4.4
39.9
40.7
1.1
1.0
JK Tyre
Buy
104
154
426
7,972
8,754
7.1
7.1
37.5
44.0
2.8
2.4
0.4
0.4
16.4
16.6
0.3
0.3
913
1,103
56,231
45,254
51,197
11.4
11.7
61.2
70.2
14.9
13.0
3.1
2.6
22.7
21.9
1.0
0.8
1,411
1,822
42,631
47,923
55,002
11.2
10.9
106.6
121.4
13.2
11.6
2.0
1.7
16.1
15.8
0.7
0.6
215
12,636
28,442
31,493
7.5
7.8
12.5
14.8
17.2
14.6
4.2
3.4
27.5
25.8
0.6
0.5
Buy
22
27
134
1,426
1,624
10.0
9.9
4.9
6.8
4.6
3.3
0.4
0.4
10.0
12.7
0.4
0.3
Tata Motors
Buy
292
347
13.3
13.6
36.2
41.5
8.1
7.0
1.8
1.5
24.6
23.2
0.4
0.4
TVS Motor
Accumulate
32
35
1,520
7,715
8,584
6.0
6.1
5.0
5.8
6.4
5.5
1.1
1.0
18.1
18.5
0.1
0.1
Maruti
Buy
Motherson Sumi
Neutral
Subros
Capital Goods
ABB*
Sell
600
461
12,704
8,073
9,052
5.5
6.9
11.5
16.9
52.0
35.4
4.7
4.5
9.3
13.1
1.5
1.3
BGR Energy
Buy
120
140
868
3,756
4,569
11.4
9.7
21.7
24.1
5.6
5.0
0.7
0.6
22.3
20.3
0.5
0.5
BHEL
Neutral
183
44,730
44,054
39,326
16.8
15.1
20.6
16.1
8.9
11.4
1.9
1.8
23.5
16.1
0.9
1.0
Blue Star
Buy
157
230
1,408
2,896
3,087
5.6
6.2
9.3
11.7
16.8
13.3
2.8
2.4
17.6
19.2
0.6
0.5
Crompton Greaves
Buy
91
117
5,834
13,446
15,272
6.7
7.6
6.6
8.9
13.7
10.2
1.5
1.4
11.4
14.0
0.5
0.5
Jyoti Structures
Neutral
19
155
3,360
3,597
9.7
9.8
7.3
10.2
2.6
1.9
0.5
0.5
8.8
11.4
0.3
0.3
KEC International
Buy
35
49
896
7,709
8,399
6.7
7.2
6.1
8.5
5.7
4.1
0.7
0.6
20.2
23.0
0.3
0.3
Thermax
Neutral
596
7,106
5,780
6,430
9.5
9.6
29.8
33.0
20.0
18.1
3.4
3.0
17.9
17.4
1.0
0.9
1,258
1,361
23,614
11,820
13,254
19.3
20.9
74.9
93.1
16.8
13.5
2.9
2.6
18.1
20.3
1.7
1.5
Cement
ACC
Accumulate
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Market Outlook
July 17, 2013
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
Cement
Ambuja Cements
Neutral
200
30,941
10,171
11,762
23.5
24.6
10.2
12.2
19.7
16.4
3.2
2.9
17.1
18.7
2.5
2.1
India Cements
Neutral
56
1,729
4,929
5,434
17.4
17.1
8.9
10.9
6.3
5.2
0.5
0.5
7.7
9.1
0.7
0.6
J K Lakshmi Cement
Buy
80
143
940
2,247
2,742
21.0
23.1
17.8
21.8
4.5
3.7
0.7
0.6
15.5
16.4
0.3
0.8
Madras Cements
Neutral
210
5,008
4,234
4,788
23.9
24.0
18.5
22.8
11.4
9.3
1.8
1.6
17.2
18.2
1.5
1.2
Shree Cement^
Neutral
4,416
15,384
6,607
7,520
27.5
26.7
322.8
374.3
13.7
11.8
3.4
2.7
27.8
25.6
1.7
1.3
UltraTech Cement
Neutral
1,936
53,093
21,947
25,049
23.8
23.8
106.1
119.8
18.3
16.2
3.0
2.6
17.7
17.3
2.5
2.1
56
84
877
1,928
2,234
21.0
21.5
6.0
7.4
9.3
7.5
0.8
0.8
10.5
10.8
1.8
1.8
166
1,715
1,824
2.4
6.2
(2.9)
(0.4)
(3.1)
(24.9)
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.5
Construction
Ashoka Buildcon
Buy
Consolidated Co
Neutral
IRB Infra
Buy
95
157
3,149
3,997
4,312
45.5
46.4
15.7
16.6
6.0
5.7
0.9
0.8
15.2
14.5
3.2
3.5
ITNL
Buy
151
230
2,941
7,444
8,041
27.4
28.9
29.8
32.1
5.1
4.7
0.7
0.6
14.9
14.2
2.5
2.5
IVRCL Infra
Buy
16
29
489
5,673
5,892
8.1
8.4
1.4
1.8
11.1
8.7
0.2
0.2
2.0
2.6
0.5
0.5
Jaiprakash Asso.
Buy
51
90
11,229
14,850
15,631
24.9
25.1
2.5
2.9
20.0
17.7
0.8
0.8
4.2
4.7
2.6
2.5
Buy
971
1,180
89,843
68,946
78,040
10.5
10.5
51.7
58.6
18.8
16.6
2.8
2.5
15.5
15.6
1.4
1.3
Nagarjuna Const.
Buy
27
42
684
6,167
6,945
8.0
8.2
2.7
3.6
10.0
7.3
0.3
0.3
2.7
3.6
0.5
0.4
Punj Lloyd
Neutral
32
1,068
12,954
14,740
9.9
9.9
0.5
0.9
63.3
34.5
0.4
0.4
0.6
1.1
0.5
0.5
Sadbhav Engg.
Buy
90
139
1,358
2,462
2,731
10.6
10.6
5.9
6.7
15.3
13.5
1.5
1.4
10.2
10.5
0.8
0.8
Simplex Infra
Buy
77
131
378
6,308
7,033
9.5
9.6
11.9
18.7
6.4
4.1
0.3
0.3
4.5
6.7
0.5
0.5
Unity Infra
Buy
25
41
183
2,146
2,339
13.7
13.8
11.0
11.5
2.3
2.1
0.2
0.2
9.3
9.0
0.6
0.6
Allahabad Bank
Accumulate
87
95
4,353
6,705
7,535
2.5
2.5
27.6
33.2
3.2
2.6
0.5
0.4
12.5
13.6
Andhra Bank
Neutral
79
4,423
5,180
5,815
2.7
2.7
19.0
22.9
4.2
3.5
0.6
0.5
12.0
13.2
Axis Bank
Buy
1,232
1,498
57,751
19,237
23,261
3.2
3.2
133.8
161.5
9.2
7.6
1.5
1.3
17.6
18.5
Bank of Baroda
Accumulate
565
642
23,795
16,287
18,707
2.2
2.3
120.6
144.6
4.7
3.9
0.7
0.6
15.0
16.0
Bank of India
Accumulate
221
236
13,155
14,459
16,176
2.3
2.2
55.2
68.2
4.0
3.2
0.6
0.5
13.7
15.1
Bank of Maharashtra
Accumulate
49
54
3,271
4,291
4,724
3.0
3.0
12.1
12.9
4.1
3.9
0.6
0.6
16.2
15.3
Canara Bank
Neutral
330
14,615
12,045
13,495
2.1
2.2
76.7
86.4
4.3
3.8
0.6
0.6
14.1
14.2
Central Bank
Neutral
61
6,372
8,406
9,546
2.5
2.5
12.6
18.7
4.9
3.3
0.6
0.5
10.6
14.3
Corporation Bank
Accumulate
330
379
5,048
5,554
6,156
2.0
2.0
94.9
104.9
3.5
3.2
0.5
0.4
14.3
14.2
Dena Bank
Neutral
67
2,351
3,255
3,623
2.3
2.4
22.0
24.9
3.1
2.7
0.4
0.4
14.7
14.7
Federal Bank
Accumulate
386
409
6,591
2,802
3,275
2.9
2.9
49.8
56.6
7.8
6.8
0.9
0.9
12.7
13.1
Financials
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
July 17, 2013
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
Financials
HDFC
Accumulate
816
906
126,886
8,679
10,350
3.6
3.6
37.5
44.7
21.8
18.3
4.5
4.1
30.1
30.7
HDFC Bank
Accumulate
679
752
162,111
27,560
33,766
4.6
4.6
36.3
45.1
18.7
15.1
3.8
3.2
21.9
22.8
ICICI Bank
Buy
1,003
1,219
115,782
26,119
30,474
3.1
3.2
86.2
99.5
11.6
10.1
1.6
1.4
15.7
16.2
IDBI Bank
Neutral
71
9,456
9,416
10,392
2.0
2.0
19.8
22.8
3.6
3.1
0.5
0.4
12.9
13.5
Indian Bank
Accumulate
107
113
4,614
6,077
6,845
2.9
3.0
35.2
41.0
3.1
2.6
0.4
0.4
14.1
14.8
IOB
Neutral
48
4,431
8,028
9,204
2.4
2.6
12.5
19.7
3.8
2.4
0.4
0.3
9.1
13.1
J & K Bank
Neutral
1,242
6,020
3,101
3,427
3.6
3.6
215.5
210.3
5.8
5.9
1.1
0.9
19.9
16.9
Accumulate
221
244
11,156
2,180
2,732
2.4
2.5
26.3
32.1
8.4
6.9
1.5
1.3
19.0
19.9
Oriental Bank
Accumulate
183
203
5,345
6,790
7,676
2.6
2.7
55.7
62.3
3.3
2.9
0.4
0.4
12.8
12.9
Punjab Natl.Bank
Accumulate
625
718
22,089
20,914
23,879
3.3
3.4
152.4
176.2
4.1
3.6
0.7
0.6
16.2
16.5
South Ind.Bank
Neutral
St Bk of India
Buy
Syndicate Bank
Accumulate
UCO Bank
Neutral
Union Bank
United Bank
23
3,036
1,800
2,023
2.7
2.7
3.7
4.2
6.1
5.4
1.0
0.8
16.2
16.2
1,828
2,126
125,072
66,417
76,734
3.0
3.0
227.4
284.8
8.0
6.4
1.2
1.0
15.4
17.1
114
121
6,838
7,125
8,188
2.6
2.6
27.4
27.9
4.2
4.1
0.6
0.6
16.2
14.6
65
4,858
6,545
6,859
2.7
2.6
14.8
15.7
4.4
4.1
0.8
0.7
14.4
13.6
Accumulate
168
186
10,050
11,101
12,543
2.6
2.6
39.3
47.4
4.3
3.6
0.6
0.5
14.1
15.2
Accumulate
46
51
1,711
3,386
3,884
2.3
2.5
12.4
20.0
3.7
2.3
0.4
0.3
10.0
14.7
Vijaya Bank
Neutral
45
2,232
2,714
3,046
1.9
2.0
9.2
10.8
4.9
4.2
0.5
0.5
10.7
11.5
Yes Bank
Neutral
452
16,243
4,451
5,526
2.8
2.8
43.0
49.7
10.5
9.1
2.3
1.9
23.9
22.8
Asian Paints
Neutral
4,834
46,365
12,332
14,524
16.5
16.3
141.6
162.7
34.2
29.7
10.8
8.6
35.4
32.2
3.6
3.0
Britannia
Neutral
679
8,126
6,417
7,502
6.1
6.3
21.3
25.5
31.9
26.7
10.4
8.3
35.7
34.6
1.3
1.0
Colgate
Neutral
1,459
19,845
3,588
4,130
20.5
20.9
44.2
51.8
33.0
28.2
32.2
23.4
108.6
96.2
5.4
4.6
Dabur India
Neutral
159
27,715
7,183
8,340
16.8
16.8
5.4
6.3
29.6
25.3
11.5
9.0
41.5
40.1
3.8
3.3
GlaxoSmith Con*
Neutral
4,970
20,900
3,617
4,259
16.1
16.4
122.2
148.7
40.7
33.4
12.7
10.2
34.1
33.7
5.3
4.4
Godrej Consumer
Neutral
890
30,274
7,801
9,017
16.2
15.9
25.1
29.7
35.4
30.0
7.6
6.3
24.9
24.2
4.0
3.4
HUL
Neutral
623
134,787
29,167
33,164
13.6
13.7
17.1
18.4
36.5
33.9
35.1
25.4
113.4
87.0
4.5
3.9
ITC
Neutral
360
284,733
34,294
39,991
36.8
37.0
11.3
13.3
32.0
27.0
10.5
8.5
36.1
34.9
8.0
6.8
Marico
Neutral
222
14,334
5,273
6,044
14.8
14.9
7.3
8.7
30.6
25.7
6.0
4.9
21.4
21.0
2.8
2.4
Nestle*
Neutral
5,692
54,877
9,447
10,968
22.1
22.3
127.5
154.1
44.7
36.9
22.3
16.1
57.7
50.7
5.8
5.0
Tata Global
Neutral
154
9,508
8,069
8,957
9.8
9.7
7.8
8.6
19.7
17.9
2.4
2.3
9.5
9.7
1.2
1.0
FMCG
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
July 17, 2013
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
IT
HCL Tech^
Neutral
876
61,011
29,424
32,837
22.6
22.0
59.5
63.3
14.7
13.8
3.6
3.0
24.6
21.7
1.9
1.6
Hexaware*
Neutral
102
3,049
2,158
2,374
19.6
19.8
10.7
11.7
9.5
8.7
2.1
1.9
23.0
22.3
1.3
1.1
Infosys
Neutral
2,730
156,792
45,153
48,993
27.6
26.8
170.7
187.5
16.0
14.6
3.3
2.9
20.8
19.5
2.8
2.5
Infotech Enterprises
Accumulate
180
190
2,009
2,037
2,254
17.9
17.7
21.2
22.6
8.5
8.0
1.3
1.1
15.2
14.1
0.6
0.5
KPIT Cummins
Accumulate
127
144
2,446
2,614
2,923
17.2
16.8
13.2
14.4
9.6
8.8
1.7
1.4
18.5
16.7
0.9
0.7
Mindtree
Neutral
912
3,789
2,707
2,978
20.3
20.2
87.4
97.0
10.4
9.4
2.2
1.8
21.8
19.5
1.1
0.9
Mphasis&
Reduce
414
391
8,705
6,372
6,852
18.0
18.2
38.0
43.5
10.9
9.5
1.6
1.4
14.3
14.2
0.9
0.7
NIIT
Buy
19
30
311
1,144
1,267
9.0
9.1
4.3
5.4
4.4
3.5
0.5
0.4
10.3
12.0
0.1
Persistent
Accumulate
518
565
2,073
1,505
1,677
25.9
26.2
53.6
59.7
9.7
8.7
1.7
1.5
17.7
16.7
1.0
0.8
TCS
Neutral
1,649
322,736
74,795
84,926
28.8
28.7
82.2
91.5
20.1
18.0
6.2
5.1
30.8
28.1
4.1
3.5
Tech Mahindra
Accumulate
1,092
1,250
25,372
8,102
8,709
19.7
19.2
93.7
101.5
11.7
10.8
2.2
1.8
21.2
18.9
3.1
2.8
Wipro
Neutral
375
92,492
41,659
45,137
21.2
21.4
27.7
29.9
13.6
12.5
2.8
2.4
20.5
19.0
1.7
1.5
D B Corp
Buy
238
290
4,372
1,750
1,925
25.1
26.6
14.2
16.8
16.8
14.2
3.6
3.1
23.4
23.4
2.4
2.1
HT Media
Buy
94
117
2,216
2,205
2,380
15.1
15.6
8.3
9.1
11.4
10.4
1.3
1.1
11.5
11.4
0.7
0.5
Jagran Prakashan
Buy
87
107
2,873
1,664
1,825
20.9
23.0
6.4
7.8
13.5
11.2
2.7
2.4
21.0
23.1
1.8
1.7
PVR
Neutral
330
1,310
1,359
1,540
17.3
17.4
17.2
21.6
19.2
15.3
1.9
1.8
10.3
12.0
1.4
1.2
Sun TV Network
Neutral
399
15,708
2,287
2,551
69.7
70.5
20.0
23.3
19.9
17.1
4.9
4.3
26.4
27.3
6.5
5.7
Bhushan Steel
Neutral
462
10,472
13,794
17,088
30.9
33.5
49.3
66.6
9.4
7.0
1.0
0.9
11.3
13.5
2.4
1.9
Coal India
Buy
294
345
185,733
72,174
76,311
33.3
28.4
28.4
30.9
10.3
9.5
2.9
2.4
37.6
36.2
1.7
1.6
Electrosteel Castings
Buy
13
18
415
1,976
2,017
11.8
12.7
1.3
2.6
10.1
4.9
0.1
0.1
2.6
5.2
0.5
0.1
GMDC
Buy
106
155
3,361
1,920
2,239
53.2
52.9
21.6
25.0
4.9
4.2
1.1
0.9
25.1
23.8
1.3
0.9
Hind. Zinc
Buy
106
145
44,662
12,358
13,659
51.4
51.6
16.0
17.6
6.6
6.0
1.2
1.0
19.4
18.4
1.3
0.8
Hindalco
Neutral
104
19,835
89,352
93,672
8.8
9.2
13.4
15.0
7.7
6.9
0.6
0.5
7.3
7.6
0.6
0.5
JSW Steel
Neutral
571
13,800
47,613
48,385
17.4
18.8
81.8
109.6
7.0
5.2
0.7
0.7
11.1
13.4
0.6
0.5
MOIL
Buy
199
248
3,351
1,010
1,046
46.5
47.6
26.8
28.8
7.4
6.9
1.1
1.0
15.4
14.7
0.9
0.7
Monnet Ispat
Buy
121
193
773
2,326
2,709
21.4
23.1
33.3
43.1
3.6
2.8
0.3
0.3
8.3
9.9
1.3
1.0
Nalco
Neutral
NMDC
Buy
SAIL
Neutral
Media
www.angelbroking.com
31
7,873
7,656
7,988
13.1
13.5
2.6
2.6
12.0
11.7
0.7
0.6
5.5
5.5
0.5
0.5
107
140
42,304
10,610
11,400
66.3
64.2
15.6
16.1
6.9
6.6
1.4
1.3
21.3
19.9
1.9
1.7
47
19,349
44,060
54,786
9.4
11.5
5.2
7.2
9.0
6.5
0.5
0.5
5.2
6.8
0.7
0.6
Market Outlook
July 17, 2013
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
Sales ( cr )
FY14E
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
Accumulate
152
166
13,228
3,742
4,426
32.9
32.8
30.0
29.8
5.1
5.1
0.7
0.6
14.3
12.5
4.3
3.6
Sterlite Inds
Accumulate
88
100
29,675
44,462
45,568
23.2
24.7
18.1
20.2
4.9
4.4
0.5
0.5
11.3
11.4
0.6
0.5
Tata Steel
Buy
251
378
9.7
10.8
30.9
47.6
8.1
5.3
0.8
0.7
9.6
13.4
0.6
0.5
Sarda
Buy
96
153
345
1,494
1,568
19.1
20.3
31.3
36.5
3.1
2.6
0.4
0.3
11.8
12.4
0.6
0.5
Prakash Industries
Godawari Power and
Ispat
Oil & Gas
Buy
30
40
403
2,615
2,776
12.1
12.0
9.8
10.4
3.1
2.9
0.2
0.2
6.5
6.5
0.4
0.4
Buy
74
102
242
2,344
2,509
14.9
15.4
38.7
47.0
1.9
1.6
0.2
0.2
12.3
12.9
0.5
0.4
Cairn India
Accumulate
303
345
57,844
16,482
16,228
69.4
53.3
53.3
49.6
5.7
6.1
0.9
0.8
16.5
13.6
2.2
1.8
GAIL
Neutral
324
41,080
52,102
52,876
15.7
16.1
34.1
35.7
9.5
9.1
1.5
1.3
16.4
15.3
0.3
0.2
ONGC
Buy
300
387
36.3
38.3
34.7
41.9
8.6
7.2
1.5
1.3
18.3
19.5
1.2
0.9
Reliance Industries
Neutral
901
9.4
8.6
75.0
76.4
12.0
11.8
1.3
1.2
12.4
11.4
0.7
0.6
Gujarat Gas*
Neutral
199
2,556
3,707
3,850
11.7
12.4
23.7
25.7
8.4
7.8
2.4
2.0
29.6
28.2
0.6
0.5
Indraprastha Gas
Neutral
292
4,082
3,700
4,218
23.4
22.8
26.7
30.4
10.9
9.6
2.3
1.9
22.7
21.8
1.2
1.0
Petronet LNG
Gujarat State Petronet
Ltd.
Pharmaceuticals
Buy
131
167
9,821
40,356
40,872
5.8
6.4
15.0
16.7
8.7
7.8
1.8
1.6
23.0
21.5
0.3
0.3
Neutral
58
3,250
1,171
1,287
91.9
91.9
10.1
11.3
5.7
5.1
0.9
0.8
17.3
16.8
Alembic Pharma
Reduce
156
139
2,932
1,736
2,008
17.1
18.9
10.7
13.9
14.5
11.2
4.6
3.4
35.0
34.7
1.8
1.5
Aurobindo Pharma
Buy
182
271
5,309
6,641
7,637
15.9
15.9
17.3
20.6
10.5
8.9
1.7
1.4
19.5
18.9
1.3
1.1
Aventis*
Neutral
2,436
5,611
1,682
1,917
16.6
16.6
92.4
99.1
26.4
24.6
3.7
3.7
15.7
14.8
3.0
2.4
Cadila Healthcare
Buy
775
929
15,874
7,280
8,640
15.5
15.7
38.3
46.5
20.2
16.7
4.3
3.6
23.5
23.5
2.5
2.1
Cipla
Buy
402
477
32,289
9,274
10,796
23.1
23.1
21.0
23.8
19.2
16.9
3.1
2.6
17.2
16.8
3.2
2.7
Dr Reddy's
Accumulate
2,280
2,535
38,753
13,377
15,350
20.4
20.1
112.3
126.8
20.3
18.0
4.3
3.6
23.5
21.8
3.0
2.6
Dishman Pharma
Buy
62
168
499
1,394
1,534
22.5
22.4
15.0
16.8
4.1
3.7
0.4
0.4
11.0
11.2
1.0
0.8
GSK Pharma*
Neutral
2,600
22,026
2,854
3,145
28.6
28.6
76.6
83.3
34.0
31.2
10.2
9.2
31.1
31.0
6.9
6.1
Indoco Remedies
Accumulate
72
78
661
760
922
15.3
15.3
6.1
7.8
11.8
9.2
1.4
1.3
12.9
14.7
1.1
0.9
Ipca labs
Neutral
680
8,579
3,243
3,826
20.5
21.5
36.0
44.4
18.9
15.3
4.4
3.5
26.0
25.4
2.8
2.3
Lupin
Neutral
874
39,153
11,641
13,933
21.3
21.3
34.8
41.8
25.1
20.9
5.9
4.7
26.2
24.8
3.4
2.8
Ranbaxy*
Accumulate
341
384
14,436
11,400
12,060
10.5
12.5
17.5
22.5
19.5
15.2
3.1
2.7
17.0
19.1
1.2
1.1
Sun Pharma
Neutral
1,120
115,754
13,509
15,846
41.0
41.0
33.0
39.8
33.9
28.1
6.8
5.7
22.0
22.0
8.0
6.6
Power
GIPCL
Buy
NTPC
Accumulate
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65
78
980
1,444
1,482
33.4
33.0
13.7
14.8
4.7
4.4
0.6
0.5
12.3
12.0
0.8
0.5
143
163
118,034
76,734
86,680
24.5
24.3
13.4
14.5
10.7
9.9
1.3
1.2
12.8
12.7
2.2
2.1
Market Outlook
July 17, 2013
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
EV/Sales(x)
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
Real Estate
DLF
Buy
165
236
29,303
8,293
9,622
36.5
36.1
5.7
6.7
28.8
24.4
1.0
1.0
3.7
4.1
5.6
4.7
MLIFE
Accumulate
433
476
1,767
888
1,002
30.6
30.6
38.8
43.4
11.1
10.0
1.3
1.1
11.2
11.4
2.6
2.3
Bharti Airtel
Neutral
321
128,416
85,489
94,229
31.9
31.9
10.2
14.6
31.4
22.0
2.3
2.1
7.2
9.4
2.2
1.9
Idea Cellular
Neutral
157
52,204
25,640
28,459
26.9
27.2
4.0
4.9
39.3
31.8
3.3
3.0
8.4
9.4
2.4
2.1
Rcom
Neutral
146
30,114
22,751
24,628
30.9
31.3
3.4
5.3
42.6
27.7
0.9
0.9
2.1
3.1
2.9
2.6
Telecom
Others
Abbott India*
Buy
1,416
1,659
3,008
1,863
2,081
11.8
12.4
71.2
83.0
19.9
17.1
4.0
3.4
21.6
21.5
1.4
1.1
Bajaj Electricals
Buy
184
237
1,834
3,885
4,472
5.4
7.2
11.0
19.7
16.8
9.3
2.3
1.9
13.5
20.3
0.5
0.4
Cera Sanitaryware
Buy
503
613
636
631
797
14.5
13.7
42.6
51.1
11.8
9.8
2.8
2.2
26.5
25.3
1.0
0.8
Cravatex
Buy
286
459
74
248
284
6.5
7.3
27.2
38.2
10.5
7.5
1.7
1.4
15.7
18.5
0.5
0.4
Finolex Cables
Buy
57
68
877
2,563
2,899
9.8
9.8
10.1
11.3
5.7
5.1
0.8
0.7
14.3
13.8
0.3
0.2
Force Motors
Buy
249
437
324
2,304
2,649
3.1
3.6
28.0
43.7
8.9
5.7
0.3
0.3
3.1
4.7
0.1
0.1
Goodyear India*
Accumulate
310
345
714
1,458
1,542
8.3
9.0
32.3
37.0
9.6
8.4
1.7
1.5
19.5
19.3
0.3
0.3
Hitachi
Buy
124
177
337
1,053
1,169
6.3
7.1
13.8
17.7
9.0
7.0
1.3
1.1
15.0
16.7
0.4
0.3
2,411
2,131
1,842
2,131
7.7
7.8
112.4
132.4
21.5
18.2
2.7
2.4
13.3
13.8
1.1
0.9
IFB Agro
Buy
146
198
132
495
651
12.7
12.9
29.3
39.5
5.0
3.7
0.7
0.6
15.4
17.6
0.4
0.3
ITD Cementation
Buy
133
234
153
1,430
1,573
11.1
11.0
19.1
26.9
7.0
5.0
0.4
0.3
5.4
7.1
0.5
0.5
Jyothy Laboratories
Accumulate
178
199
2,959
1,220
1,476
13.3
13.6
5.5
9.0
32.3
19.7
3.7
3.3
12.1
17.7
2.8
2.2
MRF
Accumulate
12,580
14,416
5,335
11,799
12,587
14.1
7.0
7.0
1.5
1.2
23.5
19.2
0.5
0.5
Page Industries
Neutral
4,593
5,123
1,057
1,282
19.4
19.6
124.8
153.7
36.8
29.9
18.2
13.5
56.3
51.8
4.9
4.1
Relaxo Footwears
Accumulate
723
791
868
1,146
1,333
10.9
11.4
45.9
60.9
15.8
11.9
3.3
2.6
23.0
24.6
0.9
0.8
Buy
244
343
229
1,158
1,322
11.9
11.9
72.9
85.7
3.4
2.9
0.6
0.5
19.9
19.6
0.4
0.4
Buy
413
617
726
1,068
1,223
9.6
9.6
38.1
44.1
10.8
9.4
1.5
1.3
14.5
14.7
0.7
0.6
TAJ GVK
Buy
59
108
369
300
319
35.8
36.2
7.9
9.1
7.5
6.5
1.0
0.9
13.9
14.4
1.5
1.3
Buy
267
371
411
814
849
17.0
17.6
64.6
69.2
4.1
3.9
0.6
0.5
14.5
13.8
0.1
(0.1)
TTK Healthcare
Buy
535
686
416
435
516
6.2
7.1
24.3
33.3
22.1
16.1
3.6
3.1
17.6
20.8
0.8
0.7
Tree House
Neutral
285
1,024
153
194
53.0
52.8
12.4
15.6
23.0
18.2
2.7
2.4
11.8
13.1
6.9
5.3
TVS Srichakra
Buy
United Spirits
Neutral
Vesuvius India*
Buy
174
230
134
1,591
1,720
6.1
6.4
24.5
38.3
7.1
4.6
0.8
0.7
10.9
15.9
0.3
0.3
2,687
39,044
12,294
14,162
12.0
12.0
42.1
67.7
63.8
39.7
4.5
4.1
9.1
10.7
3.5
3.0
365
439
741
600
638
20.1
19.4
35.7
36.6
10.2
10.0
1.8
1.6
19.4
17.1
1.0
0.9
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on July 16, 2013
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Market Outlook
July 17, 2013
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