Commodities Daily Report

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Monday| 12 Aug, 2013 2013
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Agricultural Commodities

Content
News & Market Highlights Chana Oilseeds Edible Oils Spices Sugar Cotton Guar Complex

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar Chief Manager- Agri Commodities [email protected] (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6130 Shruti Ghanekar Research Associate [email protected] (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6133 Anuj Choudhary Research Analyst [email protected] (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6132

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Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd. Your feedback is appreciated on [email protected]

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Commodities Daily Report

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Monday| 12 Aug, 2013 2013
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Agricultural Commodities
NEWS HIGHLIGHTS
Monsoon rains ebb to ease crop worries
India's monsoon rains have eased and are likely to continue the more measured pace next week, weather officials said on Thursday, bringing relief to summer crops that had faced the threat of damage from heavy downpours. The rains may also pick up in the eastern part of the country which has had lower than average rainfall so far and needs more water to help finish planting of rice. India, one of the world's biggest producers and consumers of farm commodities, is heavily reliant on the annual monsoon for its huge harvests of rice, sugar and cash crops like cotton. Rains so far in much of the country have been very heavy, helping sowing early on but unwelcome now when crops are at a delicate growing stage. "Rainfall activities will ease over central, western and southern parts next week, but are expected to be heavy over the northeast and parts of north India," said D.S. Pai, the lead forecaster of the Indian weather office. The rains were 1 percent below average in the week ending August 7, data from the weather office showed. They were 17 percent above normal in the first half of the June to September season. (Source:
Business Line)

Market Highlights (% change)

Last Prev. day

as on August 09, 2013

WoW MoM YoY

Sensex Nifty INR/$ Nymex Crude Oil - $/bbl Comex Gold - $/oz

18789 5566 60.73 105.97 1312.9

0.67 0.84 -0.78 2.49 0.17

-2.73 -2.83 0.27 -0.91 0.18

-3.34 -5.01 1.05 2.36 5.38

6.75 4.26 9.85 13.51 -18.81

.Source: Reuters

Implement ethanol blending, say sugar firms

The sugar industry has urged strict implementation of the petrol-ethanol blending programme. It has used the Union government's current worry on controlling a widening trade deficit as an important argument. Early this year, the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs directed the government-owned oil marketing companies (OMCs) to blend at least five per cent of ethanol with petrol by the end of this financial year. For this, the OMCs would require at least 1,050 million litres. They've floated tenders and finalised bids for 400 mn litres of the total offer from the industry of 550 mn litres. However, distillery units (sugar mills' ethanol producing plants) are still awaiting supply orders from the OMCs. The prolonged delay translates into higher foreign currency outgo, apart from putting sugar mills' distillation plans into uncertainty, the industry has said. (Source: Business Standard)

Basmati exporters see trade barrier design in US r ed flag

Rice exporters have alleged that the United States is erecting non-tariff barriers on Indian basmati shipments by raising the issue of fungicide traces to curb imports at the behest of their local producers. By not fixing the maximum residue limits (MRLs) on fungicides, such as tricyclazole, isoprothiolane and carbendazium, the US is trying to indirectly curb imports from India, they allege. The US started rejecting shipments after traces of tricyclazole were detected since late 2011. The average rejection rates for basmati consignments have seen a sharp increase to about 50 per cent from zero in the past two years. It appears that we are being singled out, although the fungicides are used by other ricegrowing nations, including Thailand and Pakis tan, said Rajen Sundaresan, Executive Director, All India Rice Exporters Association (AIREA). Indias basmati exports to the US have gr (Source: Business Line)

Maharashtra farmers switch over to cash crops

The area under cash crops such as soyabean and cotton has seen a surge in Maharashtra. Simultaneously, the area under food crops is down 14 per cent compared to the average area of such crops. Experts are alarmed by this development as they fear that the falling food crop acreage will further fuel food inflation. Cash crops are most sought after by farmers. This year farmers have chosen to plant soyabean because they received the highest rate of Rs 4,500 a quintal (100 kg) for their produce last year. Currently, the area under the oilseed has risen 38 per cent to about 38.72 lakh hectares (lh) compared to an average of 27.99 lh earlier. The area under cotton crop has increased by 14 per cent to 38.46 lh. Agriculture Commissioner of Maharashtra Umakant Dangat told Business Line that the area under cash crops is increasing in the State. Farmers are following market trends and therefore they cannot be persuaded to grow food crops, he said. Among the food crops the worst one to suffer is jowar, which is a major stable food across the State. This year farmers have merely sowed about 6.12 lh of jowar, which is a 46 per cent decline, over the average area of 11.44 lh. Even bajra has declined by 30 per cent to 7.8 lh from 11.33 lh. (Source: Business Line)

Onion prices soars to Rs 60 per kg in Delhi's retail market

Onion prices have soared to Rs 60 per kg in the retail market of the national capital due to lower supply from producing regions. Local vendors are selling onion, a politically sensitive item, at Rs 55-60 per kg in Delhi, while rates are lower at organised retails. At Mother Dairy's 350 Safal stores in NCR, onion is being sold at Rs 45 per kg. At MORE retail outlets, the edible bulb is available at Rs 50 per kg. Onion supplies have substantially come down in Delhi to 6,000 quintal from 11,480 quintals ten days ago, according to the data maintained by the National Horticultural Research and Development Foundation (NHRDF). "Wholesale price of onion has touched Rs 40-45 per kg. Arrival of onion from producing states has declined in last 8-10 days," Azadpur Mandi's Onion Merchant Traders Association President Surendra Budhiraj said. The new crop is expected from Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka in September-October, he added. Concerned over the rising prices, Delhi government has already started selling onion vegetable at reasonable rates at 350 outlets across the city to provide relief to citizens. Meanwhile, rates at Lasalgoan -- the Asia's biggest wholesale market for onion -- have increased to Rs 31.50 per kg from Rs 24 per kg on July 31 as supplies have fall down. (Source: Business Standard)

Cotton harvest in India may reach a new high to record on higher planting
Cotton production in India, the world's second-biggest exporter, will climb to a record as above-average monsoon rainfall increased planting, Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar said. "The growing areas have received very good rains," Pawar said in an interview yesterday. "Excessive rains in some areas will not impact the total output. Production should reach a record." The harvest was the highest ever at 35.2 million bales (1 bale=170 kg) in 2011-2012, according to agriculture ministry data. Production was 34 million bales in 2012-2013. A larger crop in India may curb an 18 per cent rally in New York futures this year. The country had the best start to the monsoon since 1994, with rainfall 15 per cent above a 50-year average, according to the India Meteorological Department. That boosted seeding of crops from rice to cotton and sugar cane.. (Source: Business Standard)

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Commodities Daily Report

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Monday| 12 Aug, 2013 2013
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Agricultural Commodities
Chana
Chana Futures opened higher last week extending preceding weeks gains. However, prices corrected from higher levels on account of profit taking coupled with sluggish demand and adequate stock positions. Also, higher sowing estimates of kharif pulses have weighed on to the prices. The spot as well as the Futures settled 1.72% and 1.09% lower respectively on a weekly basis. Higher chana production in 2012-13 coupled with a higher sowing of the kharif pulses have pressurized prices over the past few weeks. As per a circular by NCDEX dated July 25 2013, Special Margin of 5% on the Short side will be imposed in all running contracts and yet to be launched contract in Chana (SYMBOL :CHARJDDEL) with effect from beginning of day Saturday, July 27, 2013. Ministry of Agriculture released its fourth Advance estimates of Food grain production on Monday wherein it pegged Chana signifincalty higher at record 8.8 mn tn in the current season 2012-13. With a significant hike in MSP of kharif Pulses for 2013-14 season, area under cultivation is expected to increase in the coming season too. Further good monsoon may not only support good yield of kharif pulses, but also ensure favorable soil condition for sowing of Rabi pulses vizChana and Moong. As per the data released by the ministry of Agriculture, area under kharif nd Pulses stood at 79.50 lakh ha as on 2 August 2013, up by 26.2 percent compared to the corresponding period last year.

Market Highlights
Unit Chana Spot - NCDEX Chana- NCDEX Aug'13 Fut
`/qtl `/qtl

as on Aug 10, 2013 % change Last 2850 2723 Prev day 0.00 0.48 WoW -1.72 -1.09 MoM -9.78 -11.42
Source: Reuters

YoY -41.97 -42.95

Spread Matrix
Closing 2850 2723 2773 2863 20-Aug-13 -127 0 -

as on Aug 10, 2013 20-Sep-13 -77 50 0 18-Oct-13 13 140 90 0 as on Aug 7, 2013 Stocks as on 6 Aug 75455 58367 12096 145918
th

Spot 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 18-Oct-13

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Bikaner Delhi Indore Total Stocks as on 7 Aug 74514 58367 12096 144977
th

Qty in Process 160 30 0 190

Qty in Process 160 30 0 190

309

111

938

1358

Demand supply scenario

According to fourth advance Estimates released on 22 July 2013, Total pulses output for 2012-13 season has been pegged at record 18.45 mn tn compared to the third advance estimates of 18 mn tn and 17.09 mn tn produced in 2011-12 seaosn. Kharif Pulses witnessed a marginal decline in the output which was offset by a considerable rise in Rabi output, especially Chana. Higher returns earned in 2012, coupled with a hike in minimum support prices (MSP), helped expand overall chana acreage in 2012-13 seasons. Chana sowing in 2012-13 was 5.65% higher at 95.17 lakh ha compared to previous year. As per the estimates, Chana output is pegged at a record 8.8 mn tn compared with its third advance estimates of 8.49 million tonnes and a previous record of 8.2 mn tn in 2010-11.
nd

Technical Chart - Chana

NCDEX September contract

Source: Telequote

Outlook
Chana is expected to trade on a mixed note today. Higher output coupled with higher sowing of kharif pulses is likely to continue to exert downside pressure on the prices. However, excessive rains in Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra may support prices at lower levels. also, expectations of improvement in demand ahead of the festive season may support prices at lower levels. Also, an increase in the margins on the short side may support prices.

Technical Levels
Contract Chana Sept Futures Unit `/qtl Support

valid for Aug 12, 2013 Resistance 2790-2810

2732-2752

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Commodities Daily Report

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Monday| 12 Aug, 2013 2013
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Agricultural Commodities
Soybean
Soybean futures traded on negative note in the initial part of the week owing to higher sowing and expectations of a record crop witnessed a sharp reversal towards the latter part of the week as the weather department forecast rains in the main soybean growing region of Madhya Pradesh in the coming few days. The spot as well as the Futures settled 3.9% and 3.28% higher respectively w-o-w. Indias soy meal exports in July declined by 36.4% to 1.07 lakh tonnes as compared to 1.68 lakh tonnes last year. According to the fourth Advance estimates of Food grain production released by the Ministry of Agriculture Soybean output is pegged significantly higher at record 14.6 mn tn in the current season 2012-13 compared with 12.2 mn tn in 2011-12. Total nine Oilseeds production is pegged at 31 MT in 2012-13, slightly higher than 29.79 MT achieved in the previous year. As per the IMD, Cumulative rainfall as on 11 August in the central India (major soy belt), were 37% above the LPA, with West and East Madhya Pradesh receiving 75% and 44% above normal respecitvely. As per data released by the ministry of Agriculture, area under oilseeds th was recorded at 181.25 la ha on 8 Aug, 2013, an increase of 28.07 percent as compared to the corresponding period last year. International Markets CBOT Soybean futures corrected on Friday as cool weather conditions have boosted prospects of record harvest this season and settled 1.11% lower. However, prices settled 0.73% higher on a weekly basis as tight supplies in the physical markets coupled with demand from China supported prices. The USDA Crop Progress report rated the U.S. crop at 64% good-toexcellent, against 63% last week on favorable weather in the Midwest. USDA reported that 39% of the crop is setting pods vs. 69% a year ago. Also, 79% of the soybean crop is blooming vs. 93% a year ago. Old-crop soybean inventories are expected to drop to a nine-year low by Aug. 31, 2013 due to last year's drought-reduced harvest and strong demand from China and domestic buyers.
Spot 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 18-Oct-13
th

Market Highlights

as on Aug 10, 2013 % Change Prev day WoW 2.67 3.90 2.60 -1.11 1.34 0.75 3.28 0.73 0.22 0.90

Unit Soybean Spot- NCDEX Soybean- NCDEX Oct '13 Fut Soybean- CBOT Aug'13 Fut RM Seed Spot- NCDEX RM Seed- NCDEX Aug '13 Fut
`/qtl `/qtl

Last 3540 3036 1341 3458 3242

MoM -7.62 -19.24 -16.89 0.22 -6.60

YoY -22.8 -34.8 -20.9 -22.3 -25.5

USc/Bsh
`/qtl `/qtl

Source: Reuters

Soybean Spread Matrix

Closing 3540 Spot 18-Oct-13 20-Nov-13 20-Dec-13 3035.5 3028.5 3048.5 0 -7 0 18-Oct-13 -504.5 20-Nov-13 -511.5

as on Aug 10, 2013 20-Dec-13 -491.5 13 20 0 as on Aug 10, 2013 20-Sep-13 -176.5 39 0 18-Oct-13 -144.5 71 32 0 as on Aug 7, 2013 Qty in Process 0 0 0 0 as on Aug 7, 2013 Qty in Process 0 0 0 0 81 0 40 121 NCDEX October contract

Mustard Seed Spread Matrix

Closing 3457.5 3242 3281 3313 20-Aug-13 -215.5 0 -

Soybean stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Akola Nagpur Sagar Total Stocks as on 7th Aug 41 0 0 41 Qty in Process 0 0 0 0 Qty in Process 0 0 0 0 81 0 40 121 Stocks as on 6th Aug 41 0 0 41 Stocks as on 6th Aug 1776 363 14621 644 56564 3088 1769 78825

RM Seed stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Alwar Bharatpur Bikaner Hapur Jaipur Kota Sriganganagar Total Stocks as on 7th Aug 1776 363 13478 644 55732 2333 1769 76095

Outlook
Soybean may trade on a positive note on account of tight supplies coupled with forecast of rains in MP in the next few days. However, higher output expectations may keep cap sharp gains. Traders may also adopt a wait and watch policy ahead of the USDA monthly report to be released today.

Rape/mustard Seed
Mustard seed futures traded on a positive note tracking higher edible oilseeds. However, weak demand and comfortable supplies in the spot markets capped sharp upside and settled 0.9% higher w-o-w. Agriculture ministry in its fourth advance estimates, pegged mustard output at 7.82 mn tn, up by 18.4% compared to 2011-12 season.

Technical Chart Soybean

Outlook
Mustard seed may trade on a mixed note. Higher edible oilseeds coupled with soybean crop damage fears may support prices at lower levels, while higher production and sufficient supplies this season may cap sharp upside and pressurize prices at higher levels.

Technical Levels
Contract Soybean NCDEX Oct Futures RM Seed NCDEX Sept Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

valid for Aug 12, 2013 Support 3965-3000 3237-3259 Resistance 3065-3100 3300-3320
Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

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Monday| 12 Aug, 2013 2013
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Agricultural Commodities
Refined Soy Oil
Ref soy oil futures traded on a positive note last week. Weak international edible oil prices coupled with comfortable supplies have pressurized prices. However, festive demand coupled with overall weakness in the Rupee supported prices at lower levels and settled 0.99% higher w-o-w. Agri Ministrys proposed to increase the import duty on refined oil coupled with fears of soybean crop damage also supported prices at lower levels. India meet 50-55 percent of its edible consumption through imports and thus rupee factor is a major determinant of edible oil prices. As per the data released by the Solvent Extractors' Association of India Imports of vegetable oils, including non-edible oils, rose 3.2% to 947591 tn in June, supported by sunflower and soy oil imports ahead of Ramadan. Monthly soy oil imports rose 2.7% as local supplies are almost exhausted before the new planting season for soybean. Stockpiles of edible oil at ports on July 1 stood at 690,000 tn, the trade body said, higher than 675,000 tn on June 1. Stocks were still on the higher side despite the decline in monthly imports.

Market Highlights
% Change Unit `/10 kg `/10 kg USc/ Bushel MYR/Tonne `/10 kg Last 675.95 671.05 41.40 2278 500.40 Prev day 0.53 0.64 -0.60 -1.51 -0.18

as on Aug 10, 2013

Ref Soy oil SpotNCDEX Ref Soy oil- NCDEX Aug '13 Fut Soybean Oil- CBOTAugust'13 Fut
CPO-Bursa Malaysia August '13 Fut CPO-MCX- July '13 Futures

WoW 0.47 0.99 -2.31 -0.65 0.95

MoM -2.89 -3.77 -12 -4.12 -1.65

YoY -12.62 -13.33 -20.98 -20.74 -9.61

Source: Reuters

Refined Soy Oil Spread Matrix

Spot 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 18-Oct-13 Closing 675.95 671.05 651.8 624.45 20-Aug-13 -4.9 0 20-Sep-13 -24.15 -19.25 0 -

as on Aug 10, 2013 18-Oct-13 -51.5 -46.6 -27.35 0 as on Aug 10, 2013

Outlook
Ref soy oil may trade on a positive note today supported by festive demand and higher soybean prices. However, weak international markets coupled with comfortable stock position of imported edible oil and a strong Rupee may cap sharp gains.

CPO Spread Matrix

31-Aug-13 30-Sep-13 31-Oct-13 Closing 500.4 493 483.2 31-Aug-13 0 30-Sep-13 -7.4 0 -

31-Oct-13 -17.2 -9.8 0

Crude Palm Oil

MCX CPO Futures traded on a positive note last week and settled 0.95% higher on account of festive demand coupled with overall weakness in the Rupee. However, weak KLCE prices capped upside. Prices on KLCE have declined due to expectations of higher output. Malaysian palm oil futures had declined to the lowest level this year and have spurred demand for most consumed cooking oil. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products in July increased 4.2% to 1,406,935 tonnes from 1,350,311 tonnes shipped during June. Indonesia has set the export tax for Palm oil at 10.5% for August, unchanged as against 10.5% for July. According to Malaysian Palm oil Board, exports increased by 0.29% in June against May, while end stocks declined by 9.4%.Exports of Malaysian palm oil products during July 1-15 declined 22.8% at 547,857 tn as against 709,860 tn during June 1-15. Exports in June rose 7 percent due to Ramadan demand. Communal feasting during Ramadan drives up consumption of vegetable oil. India's refined palm oil imports declined 20.7 per cent in June to 296, 230 tn, from a record high 373,837 tonnes in May as overall weakness in the Rupee made imports expensive.

Technical Chart Ref Soy Oil

NCDEX September contract

Technical Chart Crude Palm Oil

MCX Aug contract

Source: Telequote

Outlook
CPO futures may trade on a positive note today on account of lower level demand coupled with festive buying. Overall weakness Rupee may also support prices. However, comfortable supplies may cap sharp upside in the prices.

Technical Outlook
Contract Soy Oil Sept NCDEX Futures CPO MCX Aug Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

valid for Aug 12, 2013 Support 644-648 495-498 Resistance 655-658 503-506

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Commodities Daily Report

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Monday| 12 Aug, 2013 2013
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Agricultural Commodities
Spices
Jeera
Jeera Futures trade on a positive note and settled 1.34% higher last week on account of overseas as well as domestic demand. However, higher arrivals and good rains in Gujarat capped sharp gains. Good rains in the main jeera growing regions have increased the moisture content of the soil, improving prospects of a better sowing in the coming season. Currently, about 70% of total arrivals have been traded in the mandis. According to IBIS, India exported 9462.64 tn of jeera in June. The major destinations were UAE, Nepal, Vietnam & USA. In the global markets, there is a supply crunch due to the ongoing geopolitical tensions in Syria and Turkey, which has raised supply concerns from these two major exporting countries. Export orders are diverted to India. Production is also expected to decline in Syria and Turkey. 1% Jeera of Indian origin is being offered for Singapore at $2,350- (FOB Mum) while for Europe at $2,750-2,850/tn (FOB Mum).

Market Highlights
Unit `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl Last 13613 13275 5133 4870 Prev day 0.05 0.26 0.00 1.29

as on Aug 10, 2013 % Change WoW 0.62 1.34 -3.34 0.29 MoM -1.22 -1.32 -8.57 -15.25 YoY -16.46 -16.71 -6.34 -13.41

Jeera Spot- NCDEX Jeera- NCDEX July '13 Aug Turmeric Spot- NCDEX Turmeric- NCDEX Aug '13 Fut

Source: Reuters

Jeera Spread Matrix

Spot 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 18-Oct-13 Closing 13612.5 13275 13475 13677.5 20-Aug-13 -337.5 0 20-Sep-13 -137.5 200 0 -

as on Aug 10, 2013 18-Oct-13 65 402.5 202.5 0 as on Aug 10, 2013 20-Aug-13 -262.9 0 20-Sep-13 -184.9 78 0 18-Oct-13 -96.9 166 88 0 as on Aug 7, 2013 Stocks as on Qty in 6th Aug Process 1430 3870 5300 8595 NCDEX Sept contract 0 6 6 12

Arrivals production and Exports

Arrivals in Unjha were reported at 4,000 bags on Wednesday. Exports of Jeera in 2012 - 2013 stood at 79,900 tn, an increase of 75%. (Source:
Spices Board)

Turmeric Spread Matrix

Spot 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 18-Oct-13 Closing 5132.9 4870 4948 5036

Production of Jeera in 2012-13 is expected around 40-45 lakh bags (55 kgs each), marginally higher than 40 lakh bags last year. Carryover stocks from 2011-12 harvest were around 8-9 lakh bags.

Outlook
Jeera may trade with a positive bias as overseas as well as domestic demand may support. However, higher supplies and good rains in the jeera sowing regions may cap gains. Overall trend remains positive for Jeera due to overseas demand, as Syria & Turkey are not shipping.

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Jeera Turmeric Jodhpur Unjha Total Nizamabad Stocks as on 7th Aug 1430 3801 5231 8615 Qty in Process 0 12 12 40

Turmeric
Turmeric futures recovered from lower levels on account of short coverings and settled 0.29% higher w-o-w. Prices touched a contract low of `4556 last week. Prices have declined sharply on account of huge carryover stocks as well as good sowing progress. The regulator imposed 10% special margin on short side in Turmeric w.e.f 06/08/2013.

Technical Chart Jeera

Production, Arrivals and Exports

Arrivals in Nizamabad and Erode are report at 1,500 bags and 3,000 bags respectively on Thursday. Sowing of Turmeric in AP is reported at th 0.43 lakh ha as on 7 August, as against 0.44 lakh ha last year and a normal sowing of 0.49 lakh ha. Production in 2012-13 is reported around 45 lakh bags, lower by 4050%. It is estimated that current years carryover stocks would be around 10 lakh bags. (1 bag= 75 kgs). Exports for 2012-13 stood at 80,050 tn, marginally higher than 79,500 tn last year. (Source: Spices Board) Outlook Turmeric may trade on a mixed note today. Huge carryover stocks coupled with the ongoing sowing and a good monsoon progress may pressurize prices.. However, an increase in the margins on the short side coupled with declining arrivals may support prices at lower levels. lower level demand may also support prices.

Technical Chart Turmeric

NCDEX Sept contract

Technical Outlook
Jeera NCDEX Sept Futures Turmeric NCDEX Sept Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

Valid for Aug 12, 2013

Support 13320-13400 4810-4880 Resistance 13550-13630 5020-5084

Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

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Monday| 12 Aug, 2013 2013
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Agricultural Commodities
Sugar
Sugar futures traded with a positive note last week after the Food Minister said that his ministry has moved a cabinet proposal to allow state governments to hike prices of sugar for PDS. Expectations of demand ahead of the festive season also supported prices. An increase in the import duty as well as export demand also supported prices while ample supplies capped sharp gains. Good monsoon conditions in Maharashtra and Karnataka has led to expectations of recovery in the cane yield, keeping prices under pressure. The spot as well as the Futures settled 0.59% and 0.57% higher respectively w-o-w. Indian traders have signed deals to export 75,000 tonnes of white sugar in July, reversing an import trend after the rupee's depreciation. However, the same didnt reflect in the market as supplies are significantly higher. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, Sugarcane has been planted in nd 48.53 lk ha as on 2 Aug 2013 as compared to 50.06 lk ha last year as drought affected Maharashtra and Karnataka have reported lower area. Based on satellite images for June and field surveys carried out by ISMA (Indian Sugar Mills Association), total sugarcane acreage available for crushing in the sugar season 2013-14 will be about 51.50 lakh hectares, which is about 1.52% less than 52.30 lakh hectares last year. (Source: ET)

Market Highlights
Unit Sugar SpotNCDEX Sugar M- NCDEX Aug '13 Fut Sugar No 5- LiffeAug'13 Fut Sugar No 11-ICE October '13 Fut `/qtl 3016 `/qtl 497.9 $/tonne 377.33 $/tonne 0.95 0.97 0.23 Last 3058

as on Aug 10, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW 0.18 0.59 0.57 1.61 1.13 MoM YoY 0.02 -16.55 1.48 0.55 3.92 -15.45 -14.38 -18.37

Source: Reuters

Sugar Spread Matrix

Spot 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 18-Oct-13 Closing 3057.5 3016 3017 3031 20-Aug-13 -41.5 0 20-Sep-13 -40.5 1 0 -

as on Aug 10, 2013 18-Oct-13 -26.5 15 14 0

Domestic Production and Exports

After producing surplus sugar in the current season, sugar output is expected to decline in 2013-14 season on account of lower plantings. However, good monsoon may curb some losses. According to the preliminary estimate of an industry body, Production is estimated to be 237 lakh tonne for 2013-14 season as compared to 250 lakh tonnes in 2012-13. According to trade body, with a domestic consumption of 235 lakh tonne and an expected production of 237 lakh tonne, the year 2013-14 will be a consecutive fourth year of surplus production for India. ISMA has estimated that the opening balance as on October 1, 2013 (for the new season 2013-14), will be around 80 lakh tonne, which is about 20 lakh tonne more than the normal opening balance.

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Delhi Kolhapur Sangli Solapur Total Stocks as on 7th Aug 449 5532 0 923 6904 Qty in Process 0 0 0 0 0

as on Aug 7, 2013 Stocks as on 6th Aug 1449 5532 0 923 7904 NCDEX Sept contract Qty in Process 0 0 0 0 0

Technical Chart - Sugar

Global Sugar Updates

LIFFE as well as ICE Sugar settled 1.61% and 1.13% higher last week on reports of cane damage in Brazil coupled with increased diversion of cane towards ethanol. Brazil's main cane region produced 2.53 mn tn of sugar in the second half of July, up 5 percent from the 2.4 mn tn produced in the first half of the month. Prices, in the long term have declined on account of abundant supplies from Brazil. According to UNICA, Brazilian mills have produced 88.95 lakh tn of sugar from the start of the cane season on April 1 through June, up 33 percent from 66.9 lakh tn a year ago. Mexico is expected to ship more than 700,000 tonnes sugar outside the US in 2012-13 season making the country a global supplier in more than a decade. Output in Mexico is reported around 6.97 mn tn in 2012-13 year.
Source: Telequote

Outlook
Sugar Futures are expected to trade higher on account of festive demand coupled with higher duties and food ministrys proposal to allow higher prices for PDS may support prices. However, ample supplies and expectations of improvement in the cane output may cap upside.

Technical Outlook
Contract Sugar Sept NCDEX Futures Unit `/qtl

valid for Aug 12, 2013 Support 3000-3008 Resistance 3026-3036

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Commodities Daily Report

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Monday| 12 Aug, 2013 2013
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Agricultural Commodities
Kapas
NCDEX Kapas as well as MCX Cotton Futures traded on a bullish note last week as the government has allowed the Cotton Corporation of India to export more cotton in the current season coupled with a weak Rupee and settled 1.98% and 4.08% higher w-o-w. However, higher sowing and above average rains so far in the country have capped sharp gains. Ministry of Agriculture, in its fourth Advance estimates of Food grain production wherein it pegged Cotton output at 34 million bales (1 bale= 170 kg) in 2012-13, lower than the record 35.2 million bales in the previous year. With the cotton season nearing its end, arrivals have declined considerably. According to CCI, Cotton arrivals since the beginning of the th season (Oct 2012- Sep 2013) till 14 July is reported at 331.15, down 1.48 percent compared to same period last year.

Market Highlights
Unit `20 kgs `/Bale USc/Lbs Last 1006 20910 89.05 94.45

as on Aug 10, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW 0.30 1.98 0.43 4.08 -0.37 4.37 1.07 3.62 MoM YoY 1.98 #N/A 4.39 15.08 6.14 17.81 2.05 9.95
Source: Reuters

NCDEX Kapas Apr Fut MCX Cotton July Fut ICE Cotton Oct 13 Cot look A Index

Cotton Spread Matrix

Closing 31-Oct-13 29-Nov-13 31-Dec-13 20910 20200 20130 31-Oct-13 0 -

as on Aug 10, 2013 29-Nov-13 31-Dec-13 -710 0 -780 -70 0

Sowing Progress
Cotton sowing is nearing its end and almost 90% of sowing is completed till last week. As per the ministry of agriculture, cotton sowing was done nd on 108.52 la ha on 2 Aug 2013 as against 144.87 la ha last year. In Gujarat, cotton was sown on 26.13 la ha as on 29 July 2013 as against 21.92 la ha during the same period last year. In Rajasthan, it was done on th 2.94 la ha as on 30 July 2013 as against 4.47 la ha last year. In AP, st cotton sowing was undertaken on 18.65 la ha as on 31 July 2013 as against 18.14 la ha last year.
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Cotton Stock Position at MCX Warehouse

Location Aurangabad Yavatmal Rajkot Kadi Sendhwa Warangal Total Stocks as on 7th Aug 4900 200 95200 15500 0 0 115800

as on Aug 7, 2013

Stocks as on 6th Aug 4900 200 95200 15500 0 0 115800 NCDEX April contract

Domestic Production and Consumption

Cotton Advisory Board (CAB) in its latest meet dated 17 April 2013 has projected cotton crop at 34 mn bales for 2012-13 season compared to the previous estimates of 33 mn bales. Mill consumption is expected to go up from 22.3 mn bales last year to 23.5 mn bales. Exports are estimated at 8.1 mn bales while imports are estimated 2.5 mn bales. However, Cotton Association of Indias estimates differ from that of the CAB which pegs cotton output for 201213 at 35.2 mn bales as on May 31 down 6% compared with 37.3 mn bales in 2011-12.
th

Technical Chart - Kapas

Global Cotton Updates

ICE cotton traded on a bullish note last week and settled 4.37% higher as heavy rains in the Southeast US and arid conditions for western Texas and China may damage crops. The USDA weekly crop progress report rated good/excellent condition at 45% against 45% last week and reduced the poor/very poor at 21% against 22% last week. The USDA monthly report increased its forecast for global stocks to 94.34mn bales from its previous forecast of 92.49 mn bales. The report also reduced US export estimates for 2012-13 crop year. ICAC has increased projections for global production and endings stocks for the 2013/14 crop year. As per USDA acreage report, the estimate for U.S. cotton planted acreage is down 17% from 2012, but is up from March 2013 estimates.

Technical Chart - Cotton

MCX Oct contract

Outlook
Cotton prices may continue to trade on a positive note on account of permission of additional exports coupled with domestic demand. Also, bullish international markets may support prices. However, higher sowing as well as a good monsoon may cap sharp gains.

Technical Outlook
Contract Kapas NCDEX April 14 Fut Cotton MCX Oct Futures Unit `/20 kgs `/bale

valid for Aug 12, 2013 Support 998-1002 20620-20760 Resistance 1011-1016 21030-21150
Source: Telequote

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

`
Monday| 12 Aug, 2013 2013
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Agricultural Commodities
Guar Complex
Guar complex continued to trade lower last week and touched a fresh contract low of `3980 in Guar seed as abundant supplies and expectations of higher production amid ample rains have mounted downside pressure on the prices. Early sowing this season will also ensure early harvesting of guar crop thereby leading to smooth supplies in the physical markets. However, prices recovered marginally from lower levels on account of short coverings. Traders are not ready to sell their stocks at such low levels and are ready to hold their stocks for better realization. Guar seed as well as Guar gum October Futures settled 1.13% and 3.13% lower on a weekly basis. Overall trend in guar, since the relaunch of the futures contract, remained bearish. Higher production last year and comparatively lower exports have resulted into higher supplies this year. With early and above normal monsoon so far, prospects for next years crop are also strong.

Market Highlights
Unit Guar Seed SpotNCDEX Guar Seed- NCDEX Oct 13 Fut Guar Gum SpotNCDEX Guar Gum- NCDEX Oct 13 Fut `/qtl 4200 `/qtl 15283 `/qtl 11980 `/qtl 1.61 4.63 -0.24 Last Prev day 5636 6.60

as on Aug 10, 2013 % change WoW -1.13 -6.25 -3.13 -4.77 MoM -18.32 -39.04 -22.11 -40.16 YoY #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

Source: Reuters

NCDEX Guarseed Spread Matrix

Spot 18-Oct-13 20-Nov-13 20-Dec-13 Closing 5635.7 4200 4200 4230 18-Oct-13 -1435.7 0 20-Nov-13 -1435.7 0 0 -

as on Aug 10, 2013 20-Dec-13 -1405.7 30 30 0 as on Aug 10, 2013 20-Nov-13 -3243 60 0 20-Dec-13 -3283 20 -40 0 as on Aug 7, 2013 Stocks as on 6th Aug 69 131 20 Qty in Process 0 0 0

Monsoon and Sowing

During the last week, rains increased its intensity over areas growing soybean, groundnut and cotton while they eased in the northwest and the northeast regions. However, cumulative rainfall continues to remain above average. According to Rajasthan Farm Department, Guarseed acreage as on 22 July, 2013 stood at 12.77 lakh hectares compared with 10.15 lakh hectares sown during the same period last year.
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NCDEX Guar gum Spread Matrix

Spot 18-Oct-13 20-Nov-13 20-Dec-13 Closing 15283 11980 12040 12000 18-Oct-13 -3303 0 -

Guarseed area increased significantly last year. With favorable monsoon and with attractive returns, acreage may remain higher in the coming season too.

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Deesa Bikaner Sriganganagar Stocks as on 7th Aug 50 102 20 Qty in Process 0 0 0

Production and Exports

According to Rajasthan Farm Departments third advance estimates, Guarseed production stood at 20.23 lakh tonnes in 2012-13. Although production is higher compared to the previous year, but still it is much below the initial expectations on account of erratic monsoon last year. In the coming season, higher sowing along with timely rains may boost guar production across India. However, if rains turn truant in the major guar growing areas, then this may adversely impact output. Exports which touched record 7.07 lakh tonnes in the FY 2011-12, declined in the FY 2012-13 as US, the largest importer of Guar gum has stocked huge inventories. During the FY 2012-13, guar gum exports stood at 4.58 lakh tonnes during April 2012-February 2013. US has stocked

Technical Chart - Guar Seed

NCDEX October contract

Outlook
Guar seed and guar gum futures are expected to continue to trade on a negative note as overall trend remains bearish due to higher sowing. If the current pace of rains continues and sowing increase significantly, we may see further downside over the short term. However, farmers may hold back their stocks expecting better realization in the coming days.

Technical Chart - Guar Gum

NCDEX October contract

Technical Outlook
Contract Guar Seed Oct (NCDEX) Guar Seed Oct (MCX) Guar Gum Oct (NCDEX) Guar Gum Oct (MCX) Unit `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl

valid for Aug 12, 2013 Support 4060-4130 4060-4130 11650-11800 11620-11770 Resistance 4260-4330 4260-4330 12150-12300 12120-12270
Source: Telequote

www.angelcommodities.com