Counting-Probability 1-Inroduction
Counting-Probability 1-Inroduction
Counting-Probability 1-Inroduction
Example Experiment: Pick a card from a standard pack of 52 cards Outcomes: 2 of hearts, 9 of clubs, ace of spades, etc. Event: picking a card with an even number on. P(even number) =
20 5 = 52 13
Definition: An event is a set of possible outcomes. Key results Let A and B be two events. 0 P(A) 1 P(A not happening) = 1 P(A) Note: P(A) is short for the probability of A. Note: A means not A
If A and B are mutually exclusive (so that they cannot occur at the same time), then P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) A N.B. P(A B) means P(A or B)
More generally, if A and B are not mutually exclusive: P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A B)
A A AND B B
Example: A university has 4000 first year undergraduates 2800 live in halls 1000 live in privately-rented accommodation 500 study medicine 340 of the medical students live in halls. A student is picked at random. Let H be the event the student lives in halls; R in privately-rented accommodation; M that they study medicine. Then the above information can be represented by the probabilities:
7 1 19 + = (you can add the probabilities since H and R are mutually 10 4 20 exclusive you cant live in both types of accommodation at the same time). P(H M) = P(H) + P(M) P(H M) 7 1 17 37 + = = (H and M are not mutually exclusive you can 10 8 200 50 be a medical student and live in halls). But Independent events A and B are independent if the probability of one happening isnt affected by whether the other happens or not. If A and B are independent, then: P(A B) = P(A) P(B). Example: A dice is thrown twice. Find the probability a) of getting a 4 on both occasions; b) that neither number is a 2; c) both numbers are the same. a) When you throw a dice twice, the outcomes of the throws are independent of each other. So 1 1 1 P(4 AND 4) = = 6 6 36 b) P(not 2 AND not 2) = 5 5 25 = 6 6 36 1 1 1 1 + + ... + = 36 36 36 6
Some key techniques: Sample space diagrams: Eg two dice are each numbered 1, 2, 2, 3, 3, 6. They are both thrown and their scores are added together. There are 36 equally likely combinations of scores:1 2 3 3 4 4 7 Second dice 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 5 5 6 6 8 8 9 9 6 7 8 8 9 9 1 2 6 1 = 36 6 18 1 P(total is even) = = 36 2 P(total is 5) = P(total score is at least 6)
First dice
1 2 2 3 3 6
15 5 = 36 12
Tree diagrams Eg Lydia buys a ticket in her school fetes raffle and tombola. The probability that she wins a prize in the raffle is 1/80 and in the tombola is 1/10. Find the probability that she wins: a) 2 prizes; b) at least one prize. R = wins prize in raffle, T = wins prize in tombola.
T
1 10
R
1 80
9 10
Not T T
1 10
79 80
Not R
9 10
Not T
The events of winning a prize in the raffle and in the tombola are independent of each other. Therefore: 1 1 1 = a) P(2 prizes) = P(R AND T) = 80 10 800
b) P(at least one prize) = 1 P(no prizes) = 1
79 9 89 = 80 10 800