Syria: Game of the Powers

-Umar Murabith A sudden breakthrough unexpectedly happened in Americas decision to attack Syria. While Americas drums of war start to calm down the diplomatic initiatives are starting to bloom. This is what happened. America had been preparing a limited air strike on Syria and seeking support from its allies. Obama approached the American congress for a vote on Syria. Debate in congress commenced at the beginning of September and the preliminary voting were expected to take place in the senate within a week later. When many eyes were on the roof top of Syria expecting the American cruise missiles this new episode of political drama was staged. A casual rhetoric answer as claimed by white house of John Kerry, Americas secretary of state to a question posed by a reporter at a press conference during his visit to Briton made a sudden breakthrough in Syrian conflict. He was asked whether there is any possibility to prevent Americas military action against Syria. Kerry answered, If Syria hands over all the chemical weapons to UN custody to destroy them, it may prevent the strike Russia immediately responded Russia is willing to co operate with America for an agreement to destroy the chemical weapons Syria possesses said Lavrove foreign minister of Russia. Following this the Syrian foreign minister who at that time one an official visit to Russia said that Syria would cooperate to prevent a strike. Everything changed in a moment. After this Obama welcomed the new breakthrough in Syrian conflict and said he would like to move this issue in this new diplomatic way. He sent Kerry to Geneva to initiate the talks on this matter with Russia. After many dragging on hows. Whos. Wheres and whens in destroying the chemical weapon, finally UN Security Council has adopted a resolution on Syria in Newyork last Friday. Accordingly Syria's estimated 1,000 tons of chemical weapons to be put under international control by mid-2014. The resolution calls for consequences if Syria fails to comply, but those will depend on the council passing another resolution in the event of non-compliance. This is the story told to the world. If we peel off the skin and look through on what happened we will be able to understand the reality of international politics. A sudden rhetoric from Kerry, Russias immediate response, Syrian foreign ministers presence in Russian at that time, Syrias immediate acknowledgment, Obama's appreciation.. America and Russia are undergoing hard times to prove that these all are just co incidents not pre-planned. If an unplanned, rhetorical statement of Kerry has the ability to

change the cause of events in Syrian conflict leading to break off to a war why America could not think about this solution earlier? Why America was so ardent to drink the blood of Syrians when there is a way out to prevent such an attack. Why this idea did not flash across the mind of Obama, Hegel, White House intelligent. Is Obama's administration that much impotent? America is a trying to hoodwink the world. We are convinced to believe these were already set up. Americas long silence on two and half years old Syrian civil war which engulfed more than one million so far, broken suddenly by Assads use of chemical weapons which added more than 1700 people in his hit list. Responding to the use of chemical weapon and sending a message to Assad regime are just entry tickets to enter into Syrian conflict. Americas reasons are more than the response to Assad chemical attack. Shifting the balance of power from al Qaeda affiliated rebels who were having upper hand in Syrian conflict to secularists, sending a warning signal to Iran that America will not tolerate its Nuclear enrichment program, fulfilling Obama's unpopular promise he made during his visit to Israel that Syrias using of chemical weapon is the redline. Many argued America is cornered in a loose and loose situation. If America started the strike it will be enmeshed into a long regional conflict thus leading to serious economical and strategical losses. At the same time if America refrains from attacking it would send a message to Iran, china Russian and others that after having engaged in many war Americans have lost the guts, courage and credibility to lead the world, so dont need to fear them, we can go on our own. Thats why it is a lose - lose situation. Recent developments confirm that America has decided not to carry out the strike. From no strike America tries to avoid the consequences of striking Syria. At the same time America has to find a way out from the consequences for not striking Syria. A self declared, unpopular red line drawn by Obama has led him between the devil and the deep sea. He cant proceed with that neither can he come out if it. American congress also seriously divided over this issue. After facing a serious criticism and opposition from various corners, Obamas regime is compelled to find a way out from attacking at any cost. If he made up his mind to withdraw after a no from congress Obamas situation will be like Cameroons. Entire world specially the American public will come to know about the unhealthy relations between Executive and the congress which Obama hates to tolerate. Before congress starts to vote on this, Obama has to find a way out from this dead-locked situation. Even if he did that, Iran, China, Al Qaeda and Americas enemies will smell Americas inability and weaknesses easily. How can America cover up these consequences for not attacking Syria? It had no choice left but to approach his cold war enemy Russia to help America come out of this tight situation with very minimal repercussions. Russia which had been defending Syria so far manipulated this situation in its favor. Russia has been trying to restore its faded image after the fall of Berlin wall. Russia planes to tighten its grip and renew its influence in Middle East by playing a mediatory role in Syrian conflict. Russians are already undergoing a serious headache because of Syrian civil war. Assad is also in need to prevent America's strike. American

president who met his Russian counterpart Putin in G20 summit might have informed him his willingness to come out of from Syrian conflict if Russia helped. As already planned, the press conference of John Kerry, willingness of Russia, consent of Syria, blessing from Obama were staged immediately and continuously. Accordingly America will not strike Syria. In return Syria has to agree to destroy its chemical weapon stockpiles. Syria already knows the logistic obstacles in removing and destroying the chemical weapon stock piles. America, Russia and Syria know its impossibility and impracticality very well. Even if it happened, after destroying few of them and with a fully fledged media campaign, they would stage a drama to the world that all of the chemical weapons in Syria are destroyed. After that if any chemical attack happened in Syria Assad would happily blame the rebels, specially al-Qaida affiliated Islamists -saying all the chemical weapons in his control were destroyed, thus directing the word anger against al Qaeda affiliated rebels- from which they wish to change the balance of power to secularist leading to a secularist government in post Assad era. This is the outcome Americans want from their strike in Syria. Now it seems they wish to delay a little bit by the sudden withdrawal. Americas strike will weaken Assad position and that will help automatically Al Qaida affiliated rebels to gain control. Assad does not want this to happen. So he also in need to prevent Americas strike on him. An offer America gave losing a few of his chemical weapons- to prevent his collapse has no loss to Assad. Both Russian and Syrian accepted this since it is beneficial to both of them. Anyhow Obama administration was in a serious hurry to cover up the consequences of NO WAR on Syria. America needs to prove the world that it is still serous about Syrias chemical weapon. If not, world would know the incapability of America- even to attack Syria. Thats why it wants to include the Article seven of UN charter which allows the imposition of economic sanctions and military action on a country- in the resolution at Security Council against Syrian if it does not comply. By sending a warning to Syria through the reference of Article seven in the resolution, America tries to wipe off its dust on its face by showing the world that it is still serious about Syrian chemical weapons even it does not opt for a military strike at the moment. But Russia is not willing to include the reference to Article seven in the resolution. After a hue and cry finally on last Friday Security Council has passed a resolution which though included the reference to article seven that allows to impose economic sanctions and military actions if Syria fails, requires a new resolution in the security council to impose the article seven on Syria which hopefully Russia would Veto if America tries to introduce that resolution to punish Syria. This is also a great loss to America. After a painstaking efforts America found a way out from Syrian war. Average people may still believe America still the Super power and big brother. But its true face has become well known to the world countries. The America we saw when invading Afghanistan and Iraq is not the America we see now. The America which had the economic and military power when invaded Iraq is not the same one now. American Public and Representatives in the Congress

are not ready to engage in another war. Now America is weak, feeble, exhausted and devastated. That is well proved in Syrian conflict. This is the truth America wants to hide from the public and the world by shifting from military action to diplomacy then to UN resolution. But Iran, China, Russia and Al Qaeda have realized this truth. The truth which is capable enough to change the world order. The question is what about those civilians Assad is killing right now? Will this political drama answer their call for help? Will Removing Assads chemical weapons stop him from killing his own people with conventional weapons? This is indeed a funny world.