FNMA FHLMC Liquidation Valuation Analysis
FNMA FHLMC Liquidation Valuation Analysis
FNMA FHLMC Liquidation Valuation Analysis
This Report should be reviewed in its entirety. The information set forth on page 1 of this Report entitled Limitations of Report/No Third Party Reliance is an integral part of this Report.
note that this Report presents a summary of our analysis, methodology and assumptions. Though we have made an attempt to describe those assumptions that we deem significant and relevant to the discussion in connection with which this Report is presented, it is possible that assumptions that are not disclosed herein would be considered material and therefore important to a recipient hereof in assessing the utility and reliability of the analyses.
Future validation of stand-alone balance sheet and assumptions will be necessary once access to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac non-public information becomes available.
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Legacy Fixed New Singlefamily Legacy ARM New Mortgage Loans Legacy Fixed New Multifamily Legacy ARM New
Legacy Book (originations pre-2009) vs. New Book (originations 2009 and after). In order to project cash flows of the trusts, we started with the opening balances of the above buckets, calculated the contractual amortization, estimated prepayments and those loans which will become seriously delinquent (120 days past due) which are then purchased at par by each GSE, using assumptions as discussed in the following sections. We then projected guarantee fees by applying the guarantee fee (G Fee) assumptions, as discussed in the following sections, to the quarterly balances of the mortgage loans in the trusts.
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PROJECTION OF CASH FLOWS FROM SERIOUSLY DELINQUENT LOANS PURCHASED BY GSES AT PAR FROM THE TRUSTS
Loans are purchased from the trusts when they become seriously delinquent (120 days past due). In estimating loans which will become seriously delinquent in the trusts, we applied a delinquency factor of two times defaults. This factor was estimated by analyzing the relationship of foreclosures, short sales and deeds in lieu of foreclosure to total loans going through workouts, as disclosed in the SEC filings of both GSEs. Of the delinquent loans purchased from the trusts, we assume that one-half will default,* no interest will be collected for two years, and then a recovery (net of severity) will be realized. We assume that the other half of the delinquent loans purchased from the trusts that do not default will go through a workout for one year, during which no interest is collected, and then go through troubled debt restructuring (TDR) and earn interest at a lower rate per the restructured terms. Cash flows are projected on restructured loans utilizing the prepayment, default and severity assumptions discussed in the following sections. We assume that a certain percentage of the TDR loans (see chart below) will default the year after being restructured. The recovery (net of severity) on these loans is reflected in the cash flows at the end of the second year. For defaulted loans, the loss is determined by applying the severity assumptions discussed in the following sections. The losses are aggregated in accumulated severity, which reduces the amount of loans on the balance sheet.
2/3 FNMA 4/5 FHLMC
Performing TDR
Delinquent Loans
1/2
Default
*Defaults are defined as loan liquidations other than through voluntary pay-off or repurchase by lenders and include loan foreclosures, short sales, sales to third parties and deed in lieu of foreclosure.
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10% 2015 10% 17% 15% 10% 2016 10% 15% 10% 2017 10% 2018 10% 15% 10% 10% 15% 10% 2019 2020 10% 15% 10% 15% 10% 2021 10% 15% 10% 2022 10% 2023 10% 15% 10% * Source: Historical CPR is from Mortgage-Backed Securities Online based on FNMA/FHLMC factors.
We believe the Legacy Book will prepay faster than the New Book due to its higher origination interest rate.
We calculated historical prepayments from June 2013 to December 2013 for New Book and Legacy Book using vintage years data. Given the assumption of gradually increasing interest rates, we project a slight downward trend from the historical prepayments for both the Legacy Book and New Book. For multifamily we assume little to no prepayments due to yield-maintenance provisions, other prepayment fees and lock-out periods in multifamily loans.
PROJECTED
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FHLMC SINGLE-FAMILY BASE SCENARIO New Book 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.07% 0.00% 0.02% 0.01% 0.03% 0.06% 0.15% 0.07% 0.11% 0.15% 0.20% 0.27% 0.35% 0.31% 0.28% 0.25% 0.23% 0.20% 2.42% Legacy Book N/A N/A N/A 1.16% 1.05% 0.24% 0.21% 0.21% N/A N/A 5.55% 0.86% 0.68% 0.54% 0.42% 0.33% 0.26% 0.21% 0.16% 0.13% 0.10% 0.08% 3.78% New Book N/A N/A N/A 0.03% 0.07% 0.02% 0.02% 0.03% N/A N/A N/A 0.11% 0.14% 0.15% 0.17% 0.19% 0.20% 0.18% 0.17% 0.15% 0.13% 0.12% 1.71%
Legacy Book 0.60% 1.00% 1.70% 1.50% 1.00% 0.20% 0.20% 0.30% 0.22% 0.92% 7.82% 0.90% 0.72% 0.57% 0.45% 0.36% 0.28% 0.23% 0.18% 0.14% 0.11% 0.09% 4.03%
Note: Defaults are defined as loan liquidation other than through voluntary pay-off or repurchase by lenders and include loan foreclosures, short sales, sales to third parties and deed in lieu of foreclosure. We relied on cumulative defaults by vintage year, where available, to calculate annual historical defaults. For projected years, we continued to trend lower for the Legacy Book, as is normally the case given its stage of the default curve. For the New Book, we increased annual defaults to a peak in 2018 and then trended defaults lower, as is typical of a default curve. Historically, Fannie Mae has experienced higher defaults compared to Freddie Mac, which is the case for both the Legacy Book and New Book default assumptions.
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PROJECTED
HISTORICAL
Fannie Mae multifamily historical annual default rates were calculated in a manner similar to single family defaults. Projected defaults for the Legacy Book are assumed to continue to trend down, while New Book defaults trend up to a peak in 2015 before trending down. We have very little visibility into the multifamily book of Freddie Mac. Consequently, we relied on Fannie Mae assumptions for Freddie Mac. (Note that multifamily is 5.2 percent and 4.2 percent of the total guarantee books of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, respectively).
PROJECTED
HISTORICAL
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SINGLE-FAMILY SEVERITY
FNMA SINGLE-FAMILY BASE SCENARIO Legacy Book New Book FHLMC SINGLE-FAMILY BASE SCENARIO Legacy Book
Year Q2 2012 Q3 2012 FY 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 FY 2013 Remainder 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
ALL 30.59% 29.83% 30.71% 27.18% 24.93% 22.16% N/A 24.22% 24.93%
ALL 37.90% 39.95% 39.05% 38.55% 36.15% 34.70% 34.15% N/A 34.70%
New Book
HISTORICAL
37.70% 34% 31% 27% 25% 22% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%
19.88% 18% 16% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15%
41.30% 37% 33% 30% 27% 24% 22% 20% 20% 20% 20%
32.26% 29% 26% 24% 21% 19% 17% 15% 15% 15% 15%
We expect the Legacy Book to experience a higher severity than the New Book due to differences in underwriting criteria and housing prices at the time of origination using the blended severity rate and the worst severity rate during the period from 2008 through 2011, we estimated severity rates for the Legacy Book and the New Book. Historically, Freddie Mac has experienced a higher severity rate than Fannie Mae. Severity rates trend down for both the Legacy Book and the New Book as a result of the assumption of a gradually improving housing market.
PROJECTED
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MULTIFAMILY SEVERITY
FNMA MULTI FAMILY BASE SCENARIO FHLMC MULTI FAMILY BASE SCENARIO New Book
HISTORICAL
Year FY 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 FY 2013 Remainder 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Legacy Book ALL 37.43% 34.49% 30.07% 21.00% 23.56% 22.00% 33% 31% 30% 28% 27% 26% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25%
Legacy Book
New Book
32% 30% 29% 27% 26% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25%
The Fannie Mae Credit Supplement provides multifamily credit losses for the Legacy Book, which are three times that of the New Book, and the Legacy Book and New Books each approximate 50 percent of the multifamily portfolio. The Freddie Mac Loss Summary report of states that foreclosures prior to 2008 experienced a severity rate of 11 percent, which was applied to the New Book. Foreclosures after 2008 experienced a severity rate of 32 percent, which was applied to the Legacy Book. The severity rate is assumed to continue to trend down as a result of gradually rising multifamily housing prices.
PROJECTED
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In order to calculate the G Fee on the total single family Fannie Mae guarantee book, we relied on the effective G Fee of 35.8 basis points for the single family guarantee book, as disclosed in the Fannie Mae June 2013 10Q, and applied an adjustment for the portion of the G Fee to be paid to the U.S. Treasury. We relied on the single family effective G Fee from the 2008 10K for the Legacy Book and calculated the G Fee for New Book based on the percentage of New Book to total guarantee book. We calculated the G Fee for the Legacy Book and New Book of Freddie Mac using the G Fee by vintage years, as disclosed in the September 2013 10Q. We calculated the Fannie Mae multifamily G Fee assumptions in a manner similar to that applied to the single family G Fee for Fannie Mae, but relied on the effective G Fee rate for the total multifamily book of 58.4 basis points, as disclosed in the June 2013 10 Q. We relied on the effective G Fee of 30.8 basis points from the Freddie Mac September 2013 10Q, adjusted for our estimate to be paid to the U.S. Treasury, for the Freddie Mac New Book G Fee applicable to the multifamily book. A substantial portion of New Book are K Certificates (with loss sharing to third parties), which have a lower G Fee. We estimate the Legacy portion of the multifamily guarantee book is deminimis.
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Fannie Mae - Non-Agency Investment Assumptions Maturity June 30 Balances (000's) (Alt-A, Subprime, Option ARMS) CMBS* 24,138 17,435 5.40% 3.20% 8.0 4.0 5.0% 0.0% 8.0% 3.0% 50.0% 30.0% WAC in Years Prepay Default Severity
Short Term Debt Interest on short term debt has been 13 basis points, which approximates the fed funds rate. Interest expense on short term debt was projected using the fed funds forward curve.
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OTHER ASSUMPTIONS
Cash is reduced pro-rata as the balance sheet of each GSE shrinks. Non-performing loans, net of severity, calculated using Q2, 2013 total severity of 24.9 percent and Q3, 2013 total severity of 34.7 percent for FNMA and FHLMC, respectively, in the opening balance sheet is realized over the next three years. Other Real Estate Owned (OREO) property on the opening balance sheet is realized over the next three quarters. We have very little visibility into Other Assets net of Other Liabilities of $8.6 billion and $2.6 billion for FNMA and FHLMC, respectively. Consequently, we assumed they are realized equally over the next ten years. The historical run-rate of operating expenses for each GSE was reduced by one third of Salaries & Benefits, onehalf of professional services over the next three years, and then further reduced pro-rata as the balance sheet of each GSE shrinks.
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SUMMARY RESULTS
VALUATION SERVICES, LLC
Freddie Mac 2014 2023 $93,763 26,364 (38,460) (8,828) (1,564) $71,276 $132,917 35,011 297,228 (37,253) 23,488 2,630 $454,021 ($525,698) ($401)
Interest Income Guaranty Fees Interest Expense Administrative Expenses Cash Income Taxes Net Cash Flows from Operating Activities Principal Payments, Prepayments and Recoveries on Retained Loan Portfolio Recovery from NPLs and OREO Principal Payments, Prepayments and Recoveries (1) on Retained Investment Portfolio Purchases of Loans from MBS Trusts Principal Payments, Prepayments and Recoveries Related to MBS Trusts Realization of Other Assets / Liabilities Net Cash Flows From Investing Activities Net Cash Flows From Financing Activities (2) Net Increase (Decrease) in Cash (3)
$108,971 48,515 (49,534) (11,952) $95,999 $207,586 82,677 203,317 (77,331) 50,254 8,588 $475,091 ($563,637) $7,454
(1) Includes recoveries from non-agency investment securities. (2) Represents paydown of Long Term Debt, Short Term Debt and Dividends Payable. (3) Represents release of cash from cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, loans held for sale and from fed funds sold / purchased.
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BALANCE SHEET
The following shows the change in the balance sheet of each GSE at the end of the ten year period:
Balance Sheet
(USD in millions)
Fannie Mae Jun 30, 2013 (1) $65,674 230,424 110,000 137,340 72,340 10,266 444 330,419 48,679 8,588 $683,784 10,243 102,799 500,441 $613,483 70,301 $683,784 Jun 30, 2023 $73,572 23,646 (2) 22,459 17,295 27,076 (12,064) 54,766 15,079 $167,064 49,846 $49,846 117,217 $167,064
Freddie Mac Sep 30, 2013 (1) $39,359 333,915 69,800 74,153 30,572 4,368 10,475 189,368 23,930 2,630 $589,202 30,436 136,030 379,638 $546,104 43,098 $589,202 Sep 30, 2023 $49,433 29,869 (2) 830 10,206 13,765 (6,263) 18,538 97,839 20,406 $20,406 77,433 $97,839
Cash, Cash Equivalents & Fed Funds Sold Retained Investment Portfolio Retained Loan Portfolio Retained TDR Loan Portfolio Non-Performing Loans (NPLs) Other Real Estate Loans (OREO) MBS Trusts Loans Held For Sale Accumulated Severity Mortgage Loans Deferred Tax Assets Other Assets Net Total Assets Dividend Payable Short Term Debt Long Term Debt Total Liabilities Total Equity Total Debt + Equity
(1) The opening balance sheet eliminates assets and liabilities identified as those of the consolidated trusts in the SEC filings of the GSEs and reflects adjustments made to (i) include accrued dividend paid to U.S. Treasury the next quarter (ii) reflect retained investment and loan portfolios per segment disclosures in SEC filings (iii) eliminate interest receivable and payable and restricted cash of unconsolidated trusts (iv) reflect nonperforming loans, net of severity of $23.03 billion and $16.2 billion calculated using Q2 2013 and Q3 2013 total severity of 24.93% and 34.7% for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, respectively and (v) reflect investment in non-agency securities at lower of cost or market. (2) Retained Investment Portfolio balance, net of severity of $3,461 million for Fannie Mae and $6,818 million for Freddie Mac in 2023. This Report should be reviewed in its entirety. The information set forth on page 1 of this Report entitled Limitations of Report/No Third Party Reliance is an integral part of this Report.
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LIQUIDATION PROCEEDS
As previously discussed, our analysis assumed all cash flows generated through operating and investing activities were used to repay maturities of long term debt, repay short term debt and invest in fed funds sold. At the end of year ten, net assets are liquidated and the proceeds are used to repay remaining debt. The net liquidation proceeds for each GSE are as follows:
Fannie Mae Book Value Liquidation Value $73,572 23,646 19,676 15,565 15,084 50,325 147,543 (49,954) (49,954) $97,589
Freddie Mac Book Value $49,433 29,869 10,077 8,460 18,538 Liquidation Value $49,433 29,869 9,069 7,614 16,684 95,986 (22,200) (22,200) $73,786
Cash, Cash Equivalents & Fed Funds Sold Investment in Securities Performing Loans Retained Portfolio: Conforming Loans (1) Performing Loans Retained Portfolio: TDR (2) MBS Trusts (2) Mortgage Loans Total Assets Short Term Debt Long Term Debt (3) Total Debt Net Liquidation Proceeds (4)
(1) Liquidation Value represents a 5% discount to book value. (2) Liquidation Value represents a 10% discount to book value. (3) Includes additional zero coupon interest through 2023 of $107.9 million for Fannie Mae and $1,793 million for Freddie Mac (4) Net Liquidation Proceeds would be $61,429 million for Fannie Mae and $47,583 million for Freddie Mac if cash income taxes are applied, calculated at the 35% Federal statutory rate. 18 of 28
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Footnotes: (1) Other adjustments made (i) to include accrued dividend paid to U.S. Treasury in Q3 2013 (ii) to reflect retained investment and loan portfolios per segment disclousures in SEC filings (iii) eliminate interest receivable and payable and restricted cash of unconsolidated trusts (iv) to reflect nonperforming loans, net of severity of $23.03 billion calculated using Q2 2013 severity of 24.93% (v) to reflect investment in non-agency securities at lower of cost or market.
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Schedule 1
Valuation Date: June 30, 2013 Page 1 of 2
LTM Jun 30, '23 Total
Guaranty Fees Other fees Interest Expense Interest on Short Term Debt Interest on Long Term Debt Total Interest Expense Administrative Expenses Salaries and Benefits (1) Professional Services Fees (2) Occupancy Expenses Other Administrative Expenses Total Administrative Expenses Expenses Related to Derivatives Hedging Net Cash Flows from Operations Cash Taxes Net After-Tax Cash Flows from Operations (3) $
8,725 -
7,522 -
6,536 -
5,661 -
4,901 -
4,217 -
3,584 -
2,971 -
2,423 -
1,976 -
48,515 -
(6,819) (6,819)
(2,823) (2,823)
(2,751) (2,751)
(2,692) (2,692)
Footnotes:
(1) Salaries and Benefits are reduced by 33.33% over the first three years.
Starting in the fourth year, they are calculated as a percentage of the outstanding mortgage portfolio balance.
(2) Professional Services Fees are reduced by 50.00% over the first three years.
Starting in the fourth year, they are calculated as a percentage of the outstanding mortgage portfolio balance.
(3) Net After-Tax Cash Flows from Operations estimated to be $59,839 million for the 10-year period if cash taxes were calculated using 35% Federal Statutory rate.
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Schedule 1
Valuation Date: June 30, 2013 Page 2 of 2
LTM Jun 30, '23 Total
Cash From Financing Long Term Debt Paydown Net Short Term Debt (4) Dividends Payable Net Cash Flows from Financing Release of Cash From Balance Sheet Cash and Cash Equivalents Restricted Cash Cash from Loans held for Sale Cash From Fed Funds Sold (Purchased) Release of Cash from Balance Sheet $ $ 4,589 $ 316 444 37,800 43,148 $ 3,460 $ 316 (8,188) (4,412) $ 3,419 $ 316 (4,699) (965) $ 2,140 $ 316 12,887 15,342 $ 1,726 $ 316 2,041 $ 1,391 $ 316 1,707 $ 1,282 $ 316 (6,173) (4,576) $ 1,165 $ 316 (28,960) (27,479) $ 941 $ 316 (24,734) (23,478) $ 729 316 (9,828) (8,783) $ $ 20,841 3,156 444 (31,895) (7,454) $ (76,827) (82,172) (10,243) (169,243) $ (92,168) $ (88,997) $ (74,011) $ (50,092) $ (40,555) $ (31,088) $ (4,484) $ (2,119) $ (10,880) $ (563,637) (71,541) (20,627) (88,997) (78,373) 4,362 (77,933) 27,841 (22,601) (17,954) (16,838) (14,250) (4,484) (2,119) (10,880) (450,595) (102,799)
Cash Distributions
- $
- $
- $
- $
- $
- $
- $
- $
- $
Footnotes:
(4) Includes $16.8 billion principal paydown of Short Term Debt in Q3'2013.
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Schedule 2
Valuation Date: June 30, 2013 Page 1 of 1
Jun 30, '13 Assets Total Cash and Cash Equivalents (1) Federal Funds Sold and Securities Purchased Investments in Securities (2) Accumulated Severity Total Investments in Securities Mortgage Loans Performing Loans - Retained Portfolio: Conforming Loans Performing Loans - Retained Portfolio: TDR Non-Performing Loans (NPLs) (3) Fannie Mae MBS Trusts Loans Held For Sale Total Accumulated Severity Total Mortgage Loans Other Real Estate Loans (OREO) Deferred Tax Assets Other Assets - Net Total Assets Liabilities Dividend Payable (4) Short Term Debt Long-Term Debt Total Debt Total Liabilities $ 10,243 102,799 500,441 603,240 613,483 $ $ 110,000 137,340 72,369 444 320,153 10,266 48,679 8,588 683,784 $ $ 27,874 37,800 230,424 230,424 $
70,301 683,784 $
Footnotes: (1) Includes Cash and Cash Equivalents and Restricted Cash. (2) Subprime, Alt-A and Option ARM securities balances are based on the lower of the cost or fair value of the securities. (3) Non-performing loans balance is net of allowance for loan losses estimated to be $24.03 billion based on a Q2 2013 severity rate of 24.93%. (4) Represents dividend payable to the U.S. Treasury in Q3 2013.
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Footnotes: (1) Other adjustments made (i) to include accrued dividend paid to U.S. Treasury in Q4 2013 (ii) to reflect retained investment and loan portfolios per segment disclousures in SEC filings (iii) eliminate interest receivable and payable and restricted cash of unconsolidated trusts (iv) to reflect non performing loans, net of severity of $16.2 billion calculated using Q3 2013 severity of 34.7% (v) to reflect investment in non-agency securities at lower of cost or market.
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Schedule 1
Valuation Date: September 30, 2013 Page 1 of 2
LTM Sep 30, '15 LTM Sep 30, '16 LTM Sep 30, '17 LTM Sep 30, '18 LTM Sep 30, '19 LTM Sep 30, '20 LTM Sep 30, '21 LTM Sep 30, '22 LTM Sep 30, '23 Total
(1,129) (1,129)
(955) (955)
Starting in the fourth year, they are calculated as a percentage of the average outstanding mortgage portfolio balance.
(2) Professional Services Fees are reduced by 50.00% over the first three years.
Starting in the fourth year, they are calculated as a percentage of the average outstanding mortgage portfolio balance.
(3) Net After-Tax Cash Flows from Operations estimated to be $45,073 million for the 10-year period if cash taxes were calculated using 35% Federal Statutory rate.
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Schedule 1
Valuation Date: September 30, 2013 Page 2 of 2
Total
Cash From Financing Long Term Debt Paydown (4) Net Short Term Debt Dividends Paid Net Cash Flows from Financing Release of Cash From Balance Sheet Cash and Cash Equivalents Restricted Cash Cash from Loans held for Sale Cash From Fed Funds Sold (Purchased) Release of Cash from Balance Sheet $ $ 1,849 $ 10 10,475 29,723 42,057 $ 1,238 $ 10 1,248 $ 1,213 $ 10 1,224 $ 912 $ 10 922 $ 723 $ 10 734 $ 669 $ 10 679 $ 651 $ 10 661 $ 640 $ 10 (22,389) (21,739) $ 444 $ 10 (18,691) (18,237) $ 237 10 (7,395) (7,148) $ $ 8,575 104 10,475 (18,753) 401 $ (70,847) (46,536) (30,436) (147,818) $ (79,251) (1,103) (80,354) $ (61,227) (14,151) (75,377) $ (58,176) 429 (57,747) $ (36,137) (9,895) (46,032) $ (19,538) (22,954) (42,492) $ (15,120) (25,942) (41,062) $ (1,930) (15,878) (17,808) $ (9,207) (9,207) $ (7,801) (7,801) $ (359,232) (136,030) (30,436) (525,698)
Cash Distributions
Footnotes:
(4) Includes $1.3 billion long term debt paid in Q3'2013.
This Report should be reviewed in its entirety. The information set forth on page 1 of this Report entitled Limitations of Report/No Third Party Reliance is an integral part of this Report.
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Schedule 2
Valuation Date: September 30, 2013 Page 1 of 1
Sep 30, '13 Assets Total Cash and Cash Equivalents (1) Federal Funds Sold and Securities Purchased Investments in Securities (2) Accumulated Severity Total Investments in Securities Mortgage Loans Performing Loans - Retained Portfolio: Conforming Loans Performing Loans - Retained Portfolio: TDR Non-Performing Loans (NPLs) (3) Freddie Mac MBS Trusts Loans Held For Sale Total Accumulated Severity Total Mortgage Loans Other Real Estate Loans (OREO) Deferred Tax Assets Other Assets - Net Total Assets Liabilities Dividend Payable (4) Short Term Debt Long-Term Debt Total Debt $ $ 30,436 136,030 379,638 515,668 $ $ $ 69,800 74,153 30,572 10,475 185,000 4,368 23,930 2,630 589,202 $ $ 9,636 29,723 333,915 333,915 $
- $ 37,414 37,414 $
- $ 28,207 28,207 $
20,406 20,406
Total Liabilities Equity Total Debt + Equity Yearly Change in Total Assets
$ $ $
$ $ $
Footnotes: (1) Includes Cash and Cash Equivalents and Restricted Cash. (2) Subprime, Alt-A and Option ARM securities balances are based on the lower of the cost or fair value of the securities. (3) Non-performing loans balance net of allowance for loan losses estimated to be $16.2 billion based on a Q3 2013 severity rate of 34.7%. (4) Represents dividend payable to the U.S.Treasury in Q4 2013.
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