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Active Transportation and Smart Growth

Thomas Gotschi, PhD


thomas@railstotrails.org
[ Active Transportation = Bicycling and Walking for Utilitarian Purposes]
Session Overview
The role of active transportation in smart growth
Thomas Gotschi, Rails-to-Trails Conservancy
Trail Oriented Development
Billy Fields, University of New Orleans
Non-motorized Transportation Pilot Program
Dan Dawson, Marin County Department of Public Works
Focus on transportation related aspects of smart growth
Goals of Smart Growth
A more sustainable form of development, in terms of
environmental, social and economic criteria
Energy efficiency
smarter mobility
smarter building designs
Social benefits
Quality of life
Social interaction
Health benefits
Economic efficiency
Energy savings
Time savings
Infrastructure savings
Health care savings
Smart Growth Principles
Mix land uses
Provide a variety of transportation choices
Create walkable neighborhoods
Take advantage of compact building design
Foster distinctive, attractive communities with a strong sense of place
Strengthen and direct development towards existing communities
Make development decisions predictable, fair, and cost effective
Create a range of housing opportunities and choices
Preserve open space, farmland, natural beauty, and critical
environmental areas
Encourage community and stakeholder collaboration in development
decisions
Sorted by relevance for transportation
Land Use
Transportation Choices
Walk and Bike Friendly
Neighborhoods
Public Transportation
Longer trips
Less vehicles per traveler
Less emissions per traveler
Land use
Increased density
Mixed use
Sense of place
Walking and Bicycling
Short trips
Transit feeder
Zero emissions
Smart Mobility
Goals
Reduce travel distances
Reduce the need to drive
Improve quality of travel
Maximize benefits
Minimize regrets
Smart Mobility
Chicken and Egg (and Rooster)
Smart
Mobility
Why Smart Mobility must be about
more than just Transit
APTA numbers
SAIC report
GHG transit/cars: 0.76
ICF international
PMPG transit: 57 (gasoline only)
VMTPG: 41 (cons. Auto occupancy)
Germany
Short distance
Regional rail (RE, RB, S-Bahn) averaged:
59mpg
Urban short distance (Subway, Tramway, Bus)
averaged: 91mpg
RegionalExpress (RE): 54mpg
RegionalBahn (RB): 47mpg
S-Bahn: 63mpg
Bus: 88mpg
Subway, Tramway: 140mpg
Long distance rail
Averaged over types of trains (ICE, EC, IC) and
speeds: 107mpg
ICE up to 124 m/h: 118mpg
ICE over 124 m/h: 91mpg
EC/IC: 125mpg
100%
40%
20%
Fuel use compared to 25mpg
80%
60%
US
Ger
Ref: Cars
What is the key to efficient transit?
Back to the roots
Mycorrhizal mycelia are much smaller in diameter than the smallest root,
and can explore a greater volume of soil, providing a larger surface area
for absorption.
Plant root w/out
mycorrhiza
Plant root with
mycorrhiza
Driving Forces of Mobility
Push (Sticks)
Cost of driving
Gas price/tax
Pay as you drive
insurance
Congestion
Congestion fee
Toll lanes
Parking restrictions
Pull (Carrots)
Transportation
choices
Convenience
Safety
Example: Does car sharing reduce GHG emissions?
Early Conclusion
Start wherever you can
Bonus: Health Benefits
Unique to Active Transportation
In itself a reason to increase walking and bicycling
Obesity a Ticking Time Bomb
300,000 premature deaths every year
Allison, D.B., et al., Annual Deaths Attributable to Obesity in the United States. JAMA, 1999
Reduces life expectancy of children by 5 years
Levine, S., et al., Obesity Threatens a Generation: Catastrophe of Earlier Deaths, Higher
Health Costs. The Washington Post, May 18, 2008
Causes more preventable disease than smoking
Mokdad, A.H., et al., Actual Causes of Death in the United States, 2000. JAMA, 2004
Costs at least $100 billion a year
Anderson, L.H., et al., Health care charges associated with physical inactivity, overweight,
and obesity. Prev Chronic Dis, 2005
In contrast to many diseases, obesity is almost
completely preventable
Americans (In)Activity Levels
CDC Recommendation: 30 minutes of moderate exercise on most days
48% fulfill activity recommendation
52% insufficiently active
156 M
25% no leisure time activity
75 M
14% not active at all
42 M
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System: 2007 Codebook Report. 2008
Why Active Transportation Works
Reduction in physical labor,
routine activity
Lack of opportunities
Too busy
Too tired
Lack of motivation
Financial constraints
Skills, confidence
Social, cultural factors
Steady increase in mobility
27% of all trips <1 mile,
48% of all trips <3 miles
Exercise secondary purpose
Low intensity exercise
Convenient transportation
Affordable, saves money
No skills required, suitable for
everyone
Build it and they come
Leisure Time Exercise Active Transportation
Making the Case
Notes from the Field
Quantification of Benefits
Increase in
Bicycling and
Walking
Benefits from
Bicycling and
Walking
Investment in Safe
and Convenient
Infrastructure
Transportation
Economic Value
Climate Change
Oil Dependence
Health
Quality of Life
Status Quo
Modest
Scenario
Substantial
Scenario
Mode Share Assumptions for Benefits Calculations
10%
1.4%
87%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
13%
5%
25%
79%
53%
Other
Driving
Transit
Transit from Bike & Walk
Bicycling & Walking
Mode Share Status Quo
Modest
Scenario
Substantial
Scenario
15%
5%
Benefits Calculation
Congestion
Relief
Congestion
Relief
Miles Driven Avoided
Fuel
CO
2
Physical Activity
Replace Short Trips
Synergy with Transit
Induce Smart Growth
$$
VMT reduction from Active Transportation
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1 Mile
or less
1 3 Miles 1 15 Miles
Trip Distance
M
i
l
e
s

T
r
a
v
e
l
e
d

(
B
i
l
l
i
o
n
s
)
% of all Trips 27 21 39 87
% of Miles Traveled 2 7 39 48
SQ
1. Shift Short Trips to Bicycling and Walking
SQ
MS SS
MS
SS
Status
Quo
Modest
Scenario
Substantial
Scenario
2. Boost Transit Ridership through Improved Access
3. Reduce Trip Distances through Mix-Use Development
Monetary Value of Benefits
Under current conditions, fuel savings from short
bicycling and walking trips alone offset current
expenditures more than 6-fold.
Under modest assumptions about shifting trips
to bicycling and walking, the resulting annual
benefits will be worth close to 20 times the
current level of federal funding for bicycling and
walking.
Assuming substantially increased growth of
bicycling and walking, nationwide benefits would
skyrocket to a magnitude approaching that of
total federal surface transportation spending.
$4B
$10B
Compared to ~$500 million in current federal spending for bike/ped
$66B
How Comprehensive is our Analysis?
- biased towards the quantifiable
Local example:
Portland, Ore.
How much investment is needed?
Portland
Costs of Portland's Bikeway Network
http://www.railstotrails.org/resources/documents/whatwedo/case_statements/Portland%20CS%20for%20Web.pdf
~50 million over 28 years
2 million/year
$3.50/resident and year
Portlands Benefits from Bicycling
Congestion
Relief
Congestion
Relief
Miles Driven Avoided
70-150M
Fuel Savings
3-7M gal
CO
2
Emission
30-70K tons
Physical Activity
0.3 min/pers day
Direct Replacement of Short Trips
Increase in Transit Ridership
Thanks to Bicycling and Walking
Reduce Trip Distances Thanks to Mixed-Use
Induced by Bicycling and Walking
$9 - $22 million / year
Based on Active Transportation for America methodology
Conclusions
Land use, transit, and AT complement and
support each other
Active Transportation is a cost-effective
starting point for smart growth
Efficient smart growth policies balance:
Carrots and sticks
Land use, transit, and active transportation
How Much Funding is Needed?
p.17
Strong correlation, but not
necessarily a causal relationship
Some figures may not be exactly
comparable due to source of
funds, duration of funding, and
funding purposes.
Infrastructure Investments and Increase in
Bicycling in Portland (p.28)
Health and Climate Benefits
Physical activity for 50-90 million Americans
Enough to lift all currently insufficiently active people to being sufficiently
active (30+ min/day)
Billions of dollars in health care savings every year
$0.4 - $28 billion per year (depending on assumptions)
$20 - $330 per individual and year
CO
2
reduction equivalent to 3-8% of all personal vehicles
33-91MMT/year (equivalent to 19 50 million add. hybrids)
Barriers to Bicycling and Walking
Safety concerns, perception of risk
Lack of facilities
(Mis-)perception of inconvenience
Density, diversity of development (Lack thereof)
Traffic regulation (Lack thereof)
We need focused investments in safe and
convenient bicycle and pedestrian infrastructure
Assume same effect on congestion
for NMT as for transit
(per mile driven avoided)
Methodological Challenges
Assume health care savings
of $19 - $330 per person and
year from gained activity
Assume 1-3% reduction in
length of trips up to 15 miles
How Fuel Savings are Calculated
(p.22)
Based on Miles Driven Avoided
Fuel savings from short trips (<3 miles):
20 mpg
(http://www.bts.gov/publications/national_transportation_statistics/html/table_04_23.html)
Fuel savings from increase in public transportation
Need fuel economy assumption for public transportation
Status Quo: 75% of current vehicle fleet (APTA)
Modest Scenario: 70% of current vehicle fleet
Substantial Scenario: 50% of current vehicle fleet
Need assumptions on how much bicycling and walking
increases public transportation
Status Quo: unknown (reference)
Modest Scenario: 10%
Substantial Scenario: 30%
Based on Congestion Relief from Miles Driven Avoided
Texas Transportation Institute
Estimates effect of miles driven avoided by public transportation:
Total passenger miles over urban areas: 45.1 billion
Equivalent to 45.1 / 1.33 persons/vehicle = 33.8 billion VMT
Total fuel saved thanks to public transportation: 323.4 million gal
Fuel saved per 1000 VMT avoided: 323.4 million gal / 33.8 billion VMT = 9.6 gal / 1000 VMT
http://mobility.tamu.edu/ums/congestion_data/
How CO
2
Reduction is Calculated
(p.22)
Based on Fuel Savings
CO
2
emission reduction:
19.6 pounds per gallon of gasoline
1 pound = 0.45 kg
1 ton (metric) = 1000 kg
How Time of Physical Activity is Calculated
(p.30)
Based on Bicycling and Walking for short Trips
(3 miles or less)
Walking speed: 3 mph
Biking speed: 10 mph
Bike share among
active transportation miles:
Status Quo: 20%
Modest Scenario: 30%
Substantial Scenario: 50%
Conversion to calories:
Bicycling, 10mph, leisure, 155lbs: 281 cal per hour
(http://www.nutristrategy.com/activitylist4.htm)
Walking, 3mph, mod. pace, 155lbs: 246 cal per hour
(http://www.nutristrategy.com/activitylist4.htm)
How Benefits are Monetized (p.38)
Fuel Savings
Status Quo: $3.50 per gallon, minus 15% tax
Modest Scenario: $3.00 per gallon, minus 15% tax
Substantial Scenario: $4.00 per gallon, minus 15% tax
CO
2
Emission Reductions
Status Quo: $0
Modest Scenario: $10
Substantial Scenario: $30
In Billion Dollars: $4B $10B $66B
How to Compare Benefits between Scenarios?
Benefits are totals, NOT in addition to lower scenario or status quo

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