Profitability: 31-Dec Sales Ebitda Net Income EPS Euro M Euro M Euro M Euro
Profitability: 31-Dec Sales Ebitda Net Income EPS Euro M Euro M Euro M Euro
Profitability: 31-Dec Sales Ebitda Net Income EPS Euro M Euro M Euro M Euro
Profitability
Profitability
2001 2002 2003
Gross Margin (%) 60.3 55.3 62.6
Operating Margin (%) 10.1 (6.1) (47.2)
Net Profit Margin (%) 7.6 (4.5) (30.9)
Basic Earning Power 0.1 (0.0) (0.4)
Financial Structure
2001 2002 2003
TIE 24.7 (9.8) (60.6)
Working capital /turnover 0.5 0.3 0.4
Stockholder Return
2001 2002 2003
Earnings Per Share 0.9 (0.5) (3.7)
Sales Per Share 11.4 12.1 12.0
Book Value 9.2 8.2 4.5
Cash Flow 1.4 0.2 (3.0)
Cash Per Share 0.5 0.5 0.4
Value Creation
2001 2002 2003
Sales Growth (%) - 5.5 -
Return on Equity (%) 0.1 (6.2) (58.2)
Return on Assets (%) 0.1 (3.6) (23.0)
Return on Investments (%) 0.1 (5.4) (43.8)
ROCE (%) 0.1 (0.1) (0.6)
EVA
MVA
Analyst Recommendations
Current 4 weeks ago 8 weeks ago 13 weeks ago
Buy 3 3 3 3
Outperform 2 2 2 2
Hold 2 1 1 1
Underperform 5 4 4 4
Strong Sell 3 5 5 5
Median Underperform
Comparison Estimates
Source Target (€) Date
DKW € 28.20 5/25/2004
AHORRO CORP SA € 28.50 5/13/2004
FORTIS BANK € 30.10 5/3/2004
ESPIRITO SANTO € 30.99 3/16/2004
BANESTO BOLSA € 35.75 8/4/2004
GRUPO SANTANDER € 37.00 4/21/2004
MORGAN STANLEY € 40.00 3/18/2004
CAI CHEUVREUX € 42.30 1/31/2004
CSFB € 46.00 5/17/2004
DEUTSCHE BANK € 47.00 5/26/2004
ROIC P/E R/E rel
% x %
3 yr
Average
59.4 Gross Profit / Sales x 100 2003 = 396/632.6*100
(14.4) Operating Income / Total Revenu x 100 2002 = ((41) / 670) x 100
(9.3) Income after tax / total revenue 2003 = (206)/668 = -0.308 2002 = ((29.9)/670 =
(0.1) Ebit / total assets
3 yr
Average
59.4 (current assets - inventories) / current liabilities
(14.4) current assets / current liabilities
0.2
0.3 Total Debt / Total Assets 2003 = 129 / 881
0.5
3 yr
Average
Ebit / interest expenses
3 yr
Growth
(4.6)
0.6
(4.6)
(4.4)
(0.2)
3 yr
Average
1.8
(21.4)
(8.8)
(16.4)
(0.2) Nopat * (1-tax) / (LTD + Eq)
2002 = ((41) / 670) x 100 = -6.119403
2002 = ((29.9)/670 = -0.045
BALANCE SHEET ANALYSIS
Balance Sheet
(millions) 2001 2002 2003
ASSETS
Fix Assets 148.0 170.8 235.4
Receivables 195.0 221.2 243.7
Goodwill & Intangibles 40.9 181.7 149.9
Inventories 317.6 305.0 211.6
Other 27.6 11.0 17.2
Cash 27.7 28.2 23.2
756.8 917.9 881.0
LIABILITIES & EQ
LTD 3.1 128.7 95.8
Eq 509.2 457.8 251.6
Min Int 1.7 2.0 0.9
Payables 163.5 213.9 178.4
Other Current Liabilities 67.7 88.1 318.0
Other Liabilities 11.6 27.4 36.3
756.8 917.9 881.0
Income Statement
(millions) 2001 2002 2003
Revenue 635.5 670.7 668.3
Operating Expenses 571.3 712.0 983.5
Op Income 64.2 (41.3) (315.2)
Interest Expense (2.6) (4.2) (5.2)
EBT 61.6 (45.5) (320.4)
Provision for tax 13.7 (15.6) (113.8)
IAT 47.9 (29.9) (206.6)
Minority Interests 0.1 3.6
Net Income 47.9 (29.8) (203.0)
Cash Flow
Valuation Ratios
Share Price euros 40.43
Total Sh Equity euro millions 2246.129
Total Sales 668.3
###
EBITDA 2001 2002 2003 2004 E
Total Revenue 635 671 668 700
Cost of Revenue 232 285 237 250
GROSS REV 403 386 432 450
Depreciation 29 43 42 42
Unusual Expenses 18 40 379 50
Working capital
EBITDA
2004 ∆
€ 26.85 € 29.28 € 31.96
2003
+10%
+15% € 28.15 € 30.70 € 33.50
+20% € 29.45 € 32.11 € 35.03
NPV € 1,345.59
PER SHARE € 24.24
NPV € 1,468.48
PER SHARE € 26.46
NPV € 1,603.60
PER SHARE € 28.89
NPV € 1,490.12
PER SHARE € 26.85
NPV € 1,562.38
PER SHARE € 28.15
NPV € 1,634.65
PER SHARE € 29.45
NPV € 1,773.93
PER SHARE € 31.96
MOST LIKELY
15% GROWTH 2004 / 2.5% GROWTH ONWARDS
EBITDA 143.75 (million)
Growth Rate 2.50% (yrs 1-10 = Excess Return Period Yrs 11+ = Normal Mkt Growth)
NPV € 1,859.09
PER SHARE € 33.50
NPV € 1,944.26
PER SHARE € 35.03
NPV € 1,625.30
PER SHARE € 29.28
NPV € 1,703.71
PER SHARE € 30.70
NPV € 1,782.11
PER SHARE € 32.11
No. Shares 55.5 (million)
WACC 8.4% (percent)
Liquidity ratios
2003 2002
Current ratio 1.36 1.74 current assets / current liabil
Quick ratio 0.82 0.80 (current assets - inventories)
Debt ratios
2003 2002
Debt ratio 57.0% 49.9% Debt / total assets
TIE 7.9 - 0.6 Ebit / interest expenses
Sales / inventory
Receivables / daily sales
Sales / net fixed assets
Sales / total assets