Megatrends v1 1

MEGATRENDS
The future of international education

November 2013
Education
Intelligence
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While the future is difcult to predict with any degree of certainty, forecasting mechanisms
continue to be popular in the international education sector. Retaining condence in your chosen
measurement and conviction is your hypothesis is the greatest challenge as unexpected factors
which fall outside the parameters of your dened criteria can undo the robustness of forecasting
models. Economic and demographic data provide the best foundation upon which to base analysis
and how these two drivers merge can oftentimes indicate the direction of international higher
educations future growth. However, as the natural unpredictability of human interaction arises,
when mathematics cannot account for all possibilities, models of this kind are revealed to be less
than airtight. Further investigation has shown that other factors outside of an increase in population
with the capacity to fund overseas education will impact trends that emerge.
The Copenhagen Institute for Future Studies describes Megatrends as great forces in societal
development that will affect all areas of general human growth and progress in years to come.
These long term driving forces, or Megatrends, have great importance now and there is condence
they will have great importance in the future. Apply this conceptual strategy of future planning to
the worlds international education industry and what Megatrends can we identify?
Since our rst attempts at developing an international higher education forecasting model we have
been rening the list of core drivers that we believe will have a profound effect on the direction and
growth of international higher education in the future. Although not an exhaustive or complete list,
we have identied seven Megatrends.
2013 British Council. All rights reserved.
MEGATRENDS THE FUTURE OF INTERNATIONAL EDUCATION
Megatrends
The future of international education
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www.un.org/esa/population/publications/worldageing19502050/
The world populations current rate of aging is unprecedented.
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Examples from developed
economies allow us to understand more immediately the consequences of people growing older
and living longer and the profound effect this will have on societal development. Converse to the
increasing age of the worlds population is the growth in emerging and developing economies,
particularly in India, the Middle East, and North Africa of younger populations. Add to this the
increasing and rapid urbanisation of many global regions from populations seeking better access
to health care and education opportunities, and we add a further layer of complexity to the shifts
in global demographics that are predicted to impact demand for and access to education for the
changing needs of the worlds transforming population.
World population prospects, the 2010 revision
Population age 15-24 by major regions (millions)
Source: United Nations Population Division 2012
Demographic shifts
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Our latest forecasting study, The future of the worlds mobile students to 2024, predicts that in
ten years time, four countries will be home to over 50% of the global 18 22 year old population;
India, China, Indonesia and the United States. As illustrated by the graph, the largest growth outside
of these four big markets is from the African continent including Nigeria, Ethiopia, Egypt, Kenya and
South Arica.
Global tertiary age (18-22) population (000s) 2011 and 2024
Source: Education Intelligence, The future of the worlds mobile students to 2024, October 2013
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Reports from economic analysts in the second quarter of 2013 suggest that the global economy
is now slowly healing, led by the strengthening of the US job market and Chinas recovery from
its earlier slowdown in GDP growth. The previously strong BRIC economies that gained so much
attention since the height of their growth in 2010 have since slowed, too, shifting the focus to
CIVETS (Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey and South Africa), a group of emerging
economies that are forecast to become increasingly important into 2014 and beyond.
Annual average growth in world GDP to 2024
Source: The future of the worlds mobile students to 2024, UN Populations Division, 2013
Economic dynamics
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We know from previous analysis that there is a direct correlation between growth in GDP per capita
and tertiary education enrolments. As emerging economies grow and their GDP per capita reaches
USD 10,000, these growth markets witness the steepest rise in gross tertiary enrolment. As the
CIVETS and other new consumer markets grow, will the demand for education services for the
newly wealthy increase?
Global higher education enrolments, mobile students, global GDP
and trade (1980-2011)
Source: The future of the worlds mobile students to 2024, UNESCO, 2013
Throughout the global nancial crisis of the late 2000s, growth in mobile tertary students
continued to outstrip that of world trade and GDP, proving to be a recession-proof area that has
continued to grow.
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Changes to political conditions
Introduction of new policies and legislation, reform agendas and increasing political tensions are
regular and reoccurring across many nations political systems and all can have a profound effect
on national and international education provision. New legislation such as the Foreign Education
Providers Bill in India, when nalised, could create unprecedented opportunities for providers of
transnational education in the soon-to-be most populous country globally. Political reform, seen
recently in Myanmar, has prompted the government to seek assistance from global partners to help
them reform their higher education system. This provides huge opportunity for growth and change,
inuence and restructure in a region that will only increase in importance in the future. Changes
of government can cause shifts in regular patterns of student ows, best illustrated by revisions of
student visa programmes as seen in Australia since the 2010 Knight review.
Higher education year to date commencements August 2013
Source: AEI International Student Enrolment Data 2013
A number of drivers, predominantly culture and economics, had such a profound effect on the
international perception of Australia as a study destination that for the rst time in a decade
Australias onshore international student numbers began to decline in 2009. As a result of this
decline, the Australian government published in July 2011 the Strategic Review of the Student
Visa Program that made recommendations for a sustainable system that would balance Australias
economic, education and migration interests. The report had in total 41 recommendations. Included
in the report recommendations were measures to streamline the visa process and introduce post-
study work rights for graduate students. March 2013 saw the introduction of new post-study work
arrangements introduced for graduates who have completed an Australian Bachelors, Masters, or
Doctoral degree. Commentators have cited this as directly responsible for the upturn in students
studying in Australia.
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002
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The new government elected in September 2013 publically highlighted its commitment to
strengthening Australias competitiveness as a leading destination for international students. The
new Education Minster speaking recently at the Australia International Education Conference in
Canberra October 2013 said, one of the coalitions key priorities will be restoring international
education to its rightful place as one of our most valuable exports.
Changes to political conditions can have a detrimental effect on the sustained growth and longevity
of international competitiveness of a country as a leading destination for international students.
Survival and growth of institutional internationalisation requires commitment that spans beyond a
government term in ofce.
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As emerging economies develop, greater emphasis is placed upon education as central to
aiding progress, empowering individuals and acting as a catalyst for further economic stability.
Hong Kong represents a nation that has recently tried to do exactly this through development
of its own education provision. In 2012, the rst cohort of Hong Kong school students took the
new standardised examination for the Hong Kong Diploma for Secondary Education. This new
curriculum and academic qualication was a departure from the previous CEE and ALE and has
been compared more closely with the International Baccalaureate with new modes of teaching,
such as school-based assessment, that are outcome-based and aim to promote learning, not
rote memorisation. The focus of the DSE is on knowledge, skills, attitudes and values, not only on
content and a nal examination. The new school system of 3 3 4 also places greater emphasis
on development of wider skills through a four-year undergraduate course that includes one year of
general studies.
In our recent assessment of the impact of the new curriculum and qualication, we surveyed over
2700 Hong Kong students to understand more fully the early impact this new way of learning was
having on student choice. The ndings from our study revealed that with more students attaining
higher level qualications there was greater demand for additional education at all levels. Initial
demand had ltered overseas as large numbers of Hong Kong students looked to study at foreign
universities. However, results from our survey showed that Hong Kong students were increasingly
interested in studying at Hong Kongs own institutions, favouring employer recognition of
qualications and closer proximity to thriving East Asian economies.
Hong Kong DSE students choice of additional study, by rst choice
Source: Education Intelligence, Hong Kongs education revolution: the impact of recent reforms, September 2013, base 2788
Growth in education provision
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Hong Kongs institutions have recently ascended in the global rankings. The education reform
in Hong Kong aimed at creating a higher skilled population that will contribute to the knowledge
economy is of increasing importance to Hong Kongs administrators at all levels. Opportunities for
international interaction in Hong Kong have arguably also evolved; previously direct recruitment
of students was the priority but now research collaboration, institutional partnership, and inward
recruitment of international students to Hong Kong comprise the Hong Kong-driven agenda.
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It seems nave to discuss the future of international education and not mention digital technology
and the way it is expected to revolutionise teaching and learning. Or is it? There is no doubt that
the digital technology revolution of education has already begun through the packaging of MOOCs
and the opportunity to capitalise on the big data they capture that gives guidance to future
pedagogical format. The phenomenon has recently gathered new speed with courses designed
for gaining academic credit, unbundled from regular course structures allowing students to
personalise and create their own teaching and learning experience. Earlier in 2013 we conducted
some preliminary analysis of the impact of MOOCs in East Asia, surveying over 1500 students and
working professionals on their familiarity with, likelihood of and motivation for taking a free online
course. The results were illustrative of the two distinct audiences this type of learning has, talking
at the strengths as a tool for continuing professional development and the direction it will need to
take to evolve and grow as a pathway for academic recognition.
Are you familiar with the free online courses being offered by
universities such as Harvard, MIT and University of California,
Berkeley?
Source: Education Intelligence, British Council, 2013
Digital technology
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Open University 2012, Innovating Pedagogy, Exploring new forms of teaching, learning and assessment, to guide educators and policy makers
Would you ever consider taking such a free online course?
Would you only pursue a free online course if you gained a
qualication for that course?
However MOOCs are just one of the clever ways technology can and likely will progress the way the
world teaches and learns. The Open University in their 2012 report Innovating Pedagogy
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describes
ten different innovations that are not independent, but t together into a new and disruptive form
of education that transcends boundaries. E-books, Badges to accredit learning and personalised
inquiry learning are shown in this report to be as revolutionary, just perhaps not as press worthy.
Our research has shown that whilst digital technology and the opportunities for progress and
access it provides are not doubted, the experiential values of international education remain at
the heart of individuals aspirations to learn and grow. Technology is a tool as important as people
make it.
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A debate exists in current literature about whether the world is facing a skills shortage or a
mismatch of talent. Many industries are experiencing a shortage of skilled workers. The graduates
that are being produced are not meeting the needs of industry, with many returning home from
their studies struggling to nd appropriate employment due to their lack of relevant skills. The 2013
Hays Global Skills Index was designed to assess the degree to which employers will have difculty
recruiting skilled labour. The index is made up of seven factors that are each given equal weighting.
One of the seven indicators is Education exibility that measures whether a countrys education
system can adapt to meet an organisations future talent needs.
In the 2013 index, India reached an overall score 4.2. The relatively low score India receives for
Education exibility shows there is considerable scope to expand the output and quality of the local
education system.
Breakdown of seven indicator scores
Source: Hays Global Skills Index 2013
The report goes on to explain that whilst many developing economies are investing heavily in
education, China and the Middle East given as examples, the gap will take some time to close.
The report quotes Michael Dickmann of the Craneld School of Management, who explains
when education and business dont coordinate, education cant adapt. The report provides
three recommendations, one of which suggests that education reform must carried out via close
collaboration between governments and the business community. The index underlines that
countries with a strong tradition of vocational education and training to ease the transition from
school to employment exhibit the lowest levels of youth unemployment globally. However, there
Global workforce demands
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remains a common disconnect between employers, secondary education institutions and young
people to ll the skills pipeline for tomorrows industries.
India will soon overtake China as the worlds most populous country and supply one quarter of the
worlds future work force. Findings from our latest research, Inside India, focus on understanding
what Indian students view as future education and employment opportunities.
Factors that create strong employability in graduates
Source: Inside India, Education Intelligence, British Council 2013, base 4731
When asked what factors they believe create strong employability in graduates, 64% of survey
respondents indicated good communication skills were paramount in creating strong employability
in graduates.
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Culture can be described as a term used to encompass all activities that distinguish one particular
group of people from another. A 2013 report published by the British Council titled Inuence and
attraction: culture and the race for soft power in the 21 Century, examines the latest data and
research in the eld of international cultural relations and cultural diplomacy. It provides ways of
classifying and understanding this increasingly diverse and growing area of policy making and
research. The report offers a new rationale for cultural relations activities, examines trends and
suggests lessons for countries that wish to enhance their international cultural strategies. The
report acknowledges cultural relations importance at a time when many nations are increasingly
seeking to maximise their soft power a term used to describe their ability to achieve their
international objectives through attraction and cooperation rather than coercion. It is widely
acknowledged in the eld that there are a number of forces that shape a nations cultural relations
activity; these eight drivers are depicted in the graphic below:
The forces that shape countries cultural relations activity
Source: British Council titled Inuence and attraction: culture and the race for soft power in the 21 Century, 2013
Cultural impact
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Educational exchanges are generally accepted to be one of the most powerful and long lasting
inuences on attitudes towards national culture, therefore investment in student and academic
exchange is seen as a very important. Student choice of one study destination over another is
greatly inuenced by a nations culture and the potential to experience living and studying within it.
Total number of students from overseas, by host country, 1999-
2009, ranked according to the top ten host countries in 2009
Source: British Council titled Inuence and attraction: culture and the race for soft power in the 21 Century, 2013
In 2011/12 the huge increase in the number of Chinese students studying in the United States
led many of its competitors to ask why this number had jumped so rapidly by 23.1% between
2010/11 2011/12. In real terms, the total number was over 194,000. We have been studying
the decision-making process of international students across the world since 2007, surveying
over 170,000 prospective students, trying to understand what and who inuences their decision-
making process. Findings from our student studies have shown that beyond all else, it is the cultural
inuence of the United States on young people in China that has caused this phenomenal shift.
However, it is crucial to note that cultural inuence can also have a negative effect on international
education growth. As growing numbers of international students venture to study overseas, there
are increasing accounts of the difculty students can have integrating into new communities and
where occasionally their safety has been put at risk. Thus, to harness the positive impacts of local
culture on incoming student communities, it is crucial that the process of integration be two-way
between local communities and international students.
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We continue our investigation of these seven Megatrends, and other inuencers on the future
of international education, with acute attention. Through trial and error we have discovered that
predicting the future is less about a nal outcome, the nal number calculated, the winning nation
identied, the best new policy or greatest digital innovation, but more about the construction of
the story and the methodology used. Not least is the fact that it is almost impossible to reach a
conclusion without an element of reasonable doubt. The future of international education will likely
be found at the intersection of these seven drivers. When, where and how these trends come
together will shape the future of how the world teaches, learns and researches. Shaping how world
class institutions are developed and how young learners are grown into leading academics. Guiding
how nations respond to global demands for skilled workers to develop industry that will progress all
our lives, and how we can collaborate across cultures to harness what we as individual nations do
best, for a shared and prosperous future.
Predicting the future...

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MEGATRENDS

The future of international education

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