Pakistan Weekly Update

StockSmart

AKD Equity Research / Pakistan

Weekly Review

Index & Volume Chart

Universe Gainers & Losers

250,000

Sym bol

200,000

JSCL

45.50

BOP

39.72

FCCL

37.76

150,000

700

30,000

(mn)
600

28,500
27,000

500

29,000
28,800

100,000

28,700
28,600

50,000

28,500

28,400

ReadyVolume(LHS)
(Index)

29,100

25Apr

50.24

24Apr

83.12

23Apr

LPCL

28,850

28,900

22Apr

MLCF

28,787
28,879

21Apr

Volum e (m n)

29,200

KSE100Index(RHS)

6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%

EPCL

Top-5 Volum e Leaders

29,300

29,192 28,717

PTC

(Index)

300,000

AKBL

(Shrs'000)

SHEL

Avg. Daily Turnover ('mn shares)

This week
209.41
Last week
367.96
Change
-43.09%

LOTCHEM

US$bn
70.41
72.43
-2.78%

MCB

PkRbn
6,900.46
6,982.19
-1.17%

MEBL

Indices
KMI-30
Allshare
This week 45,911.21 21,534.11
Last week 46,407.18 21,723.29
Change
-1.07%
-0.87%

ABL

Indices
KSE-100
KSE-30
This week 28,850.08 20,128.99
Last week 29,069.93 20,297.49
Change
-0.76%
-0.83%

The KSE-100 Index closed for the week at 28,850 points, down by 0.76%WoW with average daily traded volumes declining by a sizeable 43.1%WoW to 209mn. During the week
impressive participation was seen from foreign investors as net FIPI flow was realized at
US$18.5mn vs. US$7.5mn in previous week, up 2.5xWoW. Local investors on the other
hand remained wary during the week with sentiments affected by some deterioration in
the law & order environment, which took investor sentiment away from the ongoing results season. Other news flow impacting investor sentiment during the week included the
successful auction of 3G/4G spectrum during the week which will raise US$1.12bn and a
rise in total fx reserves to close to US$12bn after Eurobond proceeds were credited. Major gainers during the week under review included HCAR (+5.7%WoW), ABL (+4.2%
WoW), HMB (+3.1%WoW), MEBL (+3.0%WoW) and MCB (+2.2%WoW), inline with our
bullish call on cyclicals. On the flipside, the major losers included EPCL (-11.2%WoW),
AKBL (-11.2%WoW), PTC (-8.3%WoW), SHEL (-8.2%WoW) and LOTCHEM (-7.8%
WoW). The top five volume leaders during the week included MLCF (83.12mn shares),
LPCL (50.24mn shares), JSCL (45.50mn shares), BOP (39.72mn shares) and FCCL
(37.76mn shares).

HMB

[email protected]
009221 111 253 111

HCAR

AKD Research

Mkt Cap.
This week
Last week
Change

25 April 2014

Source: KSE & AKD Research

Outlook

25,500

400

24,000

300

22,500

200

21,000

Apr-14

Mar-14

Jan-14

Feb-14

Dec-13

Oct-13

Volume (LHS)

Nov-13

Jul-13

Sep-13

Jun-13

18,000
Apr-13

19,500

0
May-13

100

Other than developments on the law & order front, we expect investor sentiment to be influenced by the ongoing quarterly results season. In this regard, major results due to be announced next week include OGDC, PSO, ENGRO, EFFC, FATIMA, BAFL and NCL, among
others. Heading into May14, while we do not rule out a choppy market ahead of the FY15
Budget, investor sentiment may be buoyed by next months MPS which may see resumption
of monetary easing.

KSE- 100 Index

Important disclosures including investment banking relationships and analyst certification at end of this report. AKD Securities does and seeks to do business with companies

Important disclosures covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of the report. Investors
should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

AKD SECURITIES
Member: Karachi Stock Exchange

Find AKD research on Bloomberg

(AKDS<GO>), firstcall.com
and Reuters Knowledge

Copyright2014 AKD Securities Limited. All rights reserved. The information provided on this document is not intended
for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be
contrary to law or regulation or which would subject AKD Securities or its affiliates to any registration requirement within
such jurisdiction or country. Neither the information, nor any opinion contained in this document constitutes a solicitation
or offer by AKD Securities or its affiliates to buy or sell any securities or provide any investment advice or service. AKD
Securities does not warrant the accuracy of the information provided herein.

www.akdsecurities.net

AKD Securities Limited

StockSmart

25 April 2014

Pakistan Weekly Update

This Weeks Daily Reports

Apr 25, 2014

PakistanEconomy_Apr'14CPIPreview,(AKDDaily,April25,2014)

28,888
28,857
28,826
28,795
28,764
28,733
28,702
28,671
16:31

15:46

15:01

14:17

13:34

12:52

12:09

11:26

9:59

10:42

9:15

28,640

Apr 24, 2014

28,894
28,861
28,828
28,795
28,762
28,729
28,696

WeexpectApr'14CPItoclockinat8.28%YoY,whichimpliesa0.9%MoMincrease.This
iscorroboratedbytheSPItrendwhichalsosuggestsa0.8%MoMincrease.Asaresult,
10MFY14 CPI should average 8.6%YoY, whereas the 12m moving CPI average is ex
pectedat8.1%YoY.Riseinsequen alpricepressuresinexpectedonthebackof1)1%
increase in food group and 2) quarterly impact of rental infla on. Going forward, we
expectfullyearFY14CPItoaveragecloseto~8.5%YoY,implyingposi veinterestrate
of1.5%.Inthisregard,weseeinterestratescomingointhenextMPStocomeback
tosingledigitsastheeconomycon nuestodepictimprovementon:1)therealside
with1HFY14GDPclockinginat4.1%withimprovementarisingfromtheindustrialsec
tor , 2) buildup in FX reserves (currently at US$11.75bn, implying import cover of
>3months), 7%CYTD apprecia on of the PkRUS$ parity and 4) GoP successfully
mee ngthefiscaldeficittargetofIMF(1HFY14fiscaldeficitof2.1%vs2.3%in1HFY13).
Inthisregard,webelieveSBPwillcuttheDRbyatleast50bpsfrom10%atpresentin
theMay14MPS.Withinthisbackdrop,leveragedplayscouldoutperforminthenear
term. Over the mediumterm, we maintain a thema c liking for cyclicals (Banks, Ce
ments,Autos)wherepreferredplaysincludeBAFL,NBP,DGKC,LUCKandNML.

28,663
15:30

14:38

13:46

12:55

12:03

11:12

9:30

10:21

28,630

Apr 23, 2014

29,317
29,218
29,119
29,020
28,921
28,822
28,723
28,624
15:31

14:50

14:10

13:29

12:49

12:09

11:30

10:50

9:30

10:10

28,525

Apr 22, 2014

29,238
29,197
29,156
29,115
29,074
29,033
28,992
28,951
14:44

15:29

14:38

15:31

13:59

13:14

12:30

11:45

11:00

9:30

10:15

28,910

Apr 21, 2014

29,120
29,080
29,040
29,000
28,960
28,920
28,880
28,840
13:47

12:57

12:05

11:14

9:30

10:22

28,800

Source:KSE&AKDResearch

AKD Securities Limited

StockSmart

25 April 2014

Pakistan Weekly Update

Regional Valuations (2014)

EPSGrowth
PE(x)
Pakistan
25% 8.86
Indonesia
13% 11.92
Malaysia
18% 13.16
Philippines
10% 14.99
Vitenam
15% 16.10
India
15% 12.53
China
15% 6.89

%
Pakistan
Indonesia
Malaysia
Philippines
Vitenam
India
China

ROE
21.50
18.53
13.49
14.83
17.99
16.33
14.43

DivdYld
5.45
2.24
3.36
2.34
n.a
1.99
4.11

Source: Bloomberg & AKD Universe

Major World Indices Performance

Country

BloombergCode

Pakistan
Srilanka
Thailand
Jakarta
Malaysia
Philippines
Vietnam
HongKong
Singapore
Brazil
Russia
India
China
S&P
DJIA
NASDAQComposite
UK
German
Qatar
AbuDhabi
Dubai
Kuwait
Oman
SaudiArabia
MSCIEM
MSCIFM

KSE100Index
CSEALLIndex
SETIndex
JCIIndex
FBMKLCIIndex
PCOMPIndex
VNINDEXIndex
HSIIndex
FSSTIIndex
IBXIndex
RTSSTDIndex
SENSEXIndex
SHCOMPIndex
SPXIndex
INDUIndex
CCMPIndex
UKXIndex
DAXIndex
DSMIndex
ADSMIIndex
DFMGIIndex
KWSEIDXIndex
MSM30Index
SASEIDXIndex
MXEFIndex
MXFMIndex

25Apr14

18Apr14

28,850
6,168
1,408
4,898
1,861
6,685
579
22,224
3,268
21,485
8,649
22,688
2,037
1,879
16,502
4,148
6,688
9,458
12,955
5,171
5,088
7,448
6,773
9,557
1,004
669

29,070
6,181
1,409
4,897
1,853
6,671
565
22,760
3,254
21,618
9,131
22,629
2,098
1,865
16,409
4,096
6,625
9,410
12,551
5,157
4,762
7,451
6,844
9,531
1,012
659

WoW

CYTD

0.76%
14.21%
0.21%
4.31%
0.07%
8.43%
0.01%
14.59%
0.45%
0.32%
0.21%
13.50%
2.40%
14.72%
2.36%
4.65%
0.42%
3.16%
0.61%
0.89%
5.29%
15.02%
0.26%
7.17%
2.92%
3.76%
0.74%
1.64%
0.57%
0.45%
1.29%
0.68%
0.95%
0.90%
0.52%
0.98%
3.22%
24.81%
0.28%
20.53%
6.85%
51.00%
0.03%
1.34%
1.04%
0.91%
0.27%
11.96%
0.73%
0.18%
1.66%
12.60%
Source: Bloomberg

International Major Currencies

SPOT

25Apr14

18Apr14

DollarIndex

79.700

79.847

0.147

USD/PkR

98.056

97.650

0.406

0.42%

6.90%

105.0

USD/JPY

102.070

102.430

0.360

0.35%

3.08%

103.0

EUR/USD

1.384

1.381

0.003

0.22%

0.73%

101.0

GBP/USD

1.682

1.679

0.002

0.13%

1.56%

99.0

AUD/USD

0.929

0.933

0.005

0.50%

4.14%

97.0

NZD/USD

0.858

0.858

0.000

0.02%

4.50%

95.0

CHF/USD

0.881

0.884

0.003

0.31%

1.36%

CAD/USD

1.102

1.102

0.000

0.00%

3.77%

USD/KRW

1,041

1,038

3.800

0.37%

0.80%

CNY/USD

6.253

6.224

0.028

3.28%
0.46%
Source: Bloomberg

Apr-14

Mar-14

Jan-14

Nov-13

Sep-13

Aug-13

107.0

Apr-13

109.0

Jun-13

PkR/US$ Trend

Source: Bloomberg

Chg+/

WoW

CYTD

0.18%

0.42%

Commodities

TRJ-CRB Index

SPOT

Units

25Apr14

18Apr14

WoW

CYTD

TRJCRB

Points

311.95

311.46

0.16%

11.34%

299

Nymex(WTI)

US$/bbl.

101.48

104.3

2.70%

3.11%

294

ICEBrent

US$/bbl.

110.26

109.71

0.50%

0.51%

289

N.GasHenryHub

US$/Mmbtu

4.8

4.34

10.60%

10.50%

284

Cotton

USd/Pound

93.7

93.85

0.16%

4.46%

279

Gold

US$/Tr.Oz

1300.29

1294.3

0.46%

7.85%

Sliver

US$/Tr.Oz

19.6921

19.6092

0.42%

1.15%

Copper

US$/MT

6772.25

6662.5

1.65%

8.18%

Platinum

US$/Oz

1417.75

1413

0.34%

3.53%

Coal

US$/MT

72.95

72.95

0.00%

13.77%

309
304

274

Apr-14

Mar-14

Jan-14

Feb-14

Dec-13

Oct-13

Nov-13

Sep-13

Aug-13

Jul-13

Jun-13

Apr-13

May-13

269

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg

AKD Securities Limited

StockSmart

25 April 2014

Pakistan Weekly Update

Chart Bank
Earnings Yield vs. T-Bill (12M) Differential

Advance to Decline Ratio

(%)

1.60

12.0

1.50

10.0

1.40

8.0

1.30

6.0

1.20

4.0

FIPI Flows for the week

Apr14

Jan14

Nov13

Jun13

Apr13

Apr14

Sep13

Feb13

May11

Mar10

Jul12

0.80
Dec11

(4.0)
Oct10

0.90
Aug09

(2.0)
Jan09

1.00

Jul08

Aug13

1.10

2.0

LIPI Flows for the week

(US$mn)

(US$'000)
8,455

9,000

10.00

8,000

Co.,4.85
5.00

7,000
6,000

NBFC,4.70

M.Funds,
(11.11)

5,000

4,349

4,000
2,507

3,000
2,000

2,327

Others,
(4.55)

(10.00)

919

1,000

(5.00)
Bank/DFI,
(8.93)

(15.00) Ind.,0.10

(20.00)

22Apr

23Apr

24Apr

25Apr

AKD Universe vs. KSE-100 Index

KSE-100 vs. MSCI-EM & MSCI-FM

KSEAllShareIndex

Apr14

Jan14

Nov13

Aug13

Jun13

Apr13

55%
49%
43%
37%
31%
25%
19%
13%
7%
1%
5%

AKDUniverse

75%
65%
55%
45%
35%
25%
15%
5%
5%
15%

KSE100
MSCIEM
MSCIFM

Jan13
Feb13
Mar13
Apr13
May13
Jun13
Jul13
Sep13
Oct13
Nov13
Dec13
Jan14
Feb14
Apr14

21Apr

AKD Securities Limited

StockSmart

25 April 2014

Pakistan Weekly Update

AKD Universe Valuations

25Apr14
EPS(PkR)
EPSchg(%)
EPSchg(%)ExFinancials
BookValueperShare(PkR)
Payout(%)
Valuations
PricetoEarnings(x)
PricetoBook(x)
PER(x)ExFinancials
P/BVS(x)ExFinancials
PricetoCF(x)
EarningsYield(%)
DividendYield(%)
EV/EBITDA(x)
Profitability
ReturnonEquity(%)
ReturnonAssets(%)
ChginSales(%)
GrossMargin(%)
OperatingMargin(%)
NetMargin(%)

2011A
8.04
24.30
25.15
37.64
52.26

2012A
8.74
8.65
8.76
43.11
50.30

2013A/E
9.55
9.29
16.62
49.47
50.11

2014F
11.93
24.92
28.70
55.50
48.32

2015F
13.67
14.60
15.41
61.92
48.52

13.14
2.81
13.53
3.26
21.74
7.61
3.98
7.97

12.10
2.45
12.44
2.88
26.99
8.27
4.16
7.02

11.07
2.14
10.67
2.44
8.81
9.03
4.53
6.26

8.86
1.91
8.29
2.12
21.39
11.29
5.45
5.48

7.73
1.71
7.18
1.89
12.02
12.93
6.28
4.85

21.37
3.85
17.34
23.41
14.47
11.38

20.27
3.58
17.57
21.77
12.85
10.52

19.31
3.76
5.67
22.87
13.46
10.88

21.50
4.16
12.61
22.48
13.50
12.07

22.09
4.29
10.90
23.03
14.35
12.47

Source: AKD Research

Market PER Chart 2014F

(x)
15

11

Apr-14

Jan-13

Oct-11

Jul-10

Apr-09

Jan-08

Oct-06

Jul-05

Source: AKD Research

Market P/BVS Chart 2014F

(x)
3.5
2.6
1.7

Apr14

Jan13

Oct11

Jul10

Apr09

Jan08

Oct06

Jul05

0.8

Source: AKD Research

AKD Securities Limited

StockSmart

25 April 2014

Pakistan Weekly Update

AKD Universe Active Coverage Clusters Valuations

EPS
DY

PE(x)

PB(x)

(PkR)
(%)

(PkR) (PkR)

12A 13A/E 14F

12A 13A/E 14F 12A13A/E 14F 12A13A/E
14F
AutomobileandParts

IndusMotors
INDU
490.0 UR
UR
54.7 42.7 UR9.0 11.5 UR 2.32.2 UR6.55.1UR
PakSuzukiMotors
PSMC
216.4 UR
UR
11.9 22.5 UR18.29.6 UR 1.11.0 UR1.21.8
UR
Construc onandMaterials

DGKhanCement
DGKC
89.2 106.95 Accumulate 9.4 12.6 12.99.57.16.9 1.20.8 0.71.73.43.6
Chemicals

EngroPolymerChemicals
EPCL
14.9 16.49 Accumulate 0.11.11.1 128.1 14.0 13.0 1.61.4 1.3

ICIPakistanLimited
ICI
378.0 310.52 Reduce 10.57.4 22.235.9 50.8 17.0 3.63.3 2.81.50.51.8
Lo eChemicalPakistanLtd. LOTCHEM 6.9 8.53
Buy
0.0(0.3) 0.6 n.m n.m 11.8 0.90.9 0.8
3.6
EngroCorpora on
ENGRO
199.2 196.20 Neutral 2.6 18.7 22.976.4 10.78.7 2.41.4 1.3

EngroFer lizersLimited
EFERT
67.6 60.00 Accumulate (2.3) 4.25.6(29.9) 16.0 12.0 5.64.0 3.0

DawoodHerculesLimited
DAWH
83.7 71.83 Reduce 2.09.2 13.141.09.16.4 2.1 n.a n.a1.2

FaujiFert.BinQasimLtd.
FFBL
40.0 49.33
Buy
4.66.06.68.66.76.0 3.02.4 2.4 11.2 13.715.6
FaujiFer lizerCompany
FFC
113.0 138.62
Buy
16.4 15.8 16.46.97.16.9 6.56.0 5.8 13.7 14.214.4
Fa maFer lizer
FATIMA
31.7 35.09 Accumulate 2.94.15.010.97.86.3 2.32.0 1.76.36.36.3
FoodProducers

EngroFoodsLimited
EFOODS 109.0 UR
UR
3.40.3 UR32.2 396.2 UR 8.37.3 UR

Oil&Gas

Oil&GasDevelopmentCo.
OGDC
258.7 302.09 Accumulate 22.5 21.1 28.911.5 12.38.9 4.13.4 2.82.83.24.5
PakOilfields
POL
536.2 612.57 Accumulate 50.1 45.8 59.110.7 11.79.1 3.63.7 3.39.88.48.6
PakistanStateOil
PSO
405.6 UR
UR
36.7 50.8 UR11.18.0 UR 2.01.6 UR1.41.22.5
Electricity

HubPowerCo.
HUBC
53.3 63.19
Buy
7.18.87.07.56.07.6 2.01.8 2.0 11.3 15.016.9
KotAdduPowerCompany
KAPCO
59.9 64.00 Accumulate 6.98.48.08.77.27.5 2.22.2 2.1 11.5 12.512.9
FixedLineTelecommunica on

PakistanTelecommunica on PTC
28.1 29.71 Accumulate 2.23.14.212.59.16.7 1.21.2 1.18.010.7
PersonalGoods

NishatMills
NML
110.8 137.54
Buy
10.0 16.6 18.711.06.75.9 1.00.7 0.63.23.64.3
Banks

AlliedBankLimited
ABL
127.4 100.03
Sell
11.4 14.2 11.711.29.0 10.9 2.52.0 1.84.64.34.3
BankAlFalah
BAFL
27.8 32.0* Accumulate 3.43.53.88.28.07.3 1.21.2 1.17.27.25.4
HabibBankLimited
HBL
188.9 UR
UR
17.0 17.1 UR 11.1 11.0 UR 1.91.8 UR 3.64.2
UR
MCBBankLimited
MCB
283.6 UR
UR
18.8 19.7 UR 15.1 14.4 UR 3.02.7 UR 3.84.5
UR
Na onalBankofPakistan
NBP
56.2 59.99 Accumulate 7.32.57.47.7 22.77.6 0.80.7 0.7 10.83.69.8
UnitedBankLtd
UBL
181.7 UR
UR
15.6 15.8 UR 11.6 11.5 UR 2.22.0 UR 4.74.7
UR
*TPforBAFLrisestoPkR33.8/shareuponsuccessfulWaridstakesale

16.46
Stocks

Symbol

Price

TP

Stance

Source: AKD Research

AKD Securities Limited

StockSmart

25 April 2014

Pakistan Weekly Update

AKD Universe Coverage Clusters Performance

Stocks

Sym bol

Price
25-Apr-14

1M

CYTD

1 Year
High

1 Year
Low

28850.08

8.2

6.8

28.5

52.8

14.2

29458.15

18779.66

AGTL
MTL

200.60
447.12

-5.3
-3.8

-2.7
-6.3

1.8
-0.3

0.2
-2.7

-5.6
-7.3

325.48
519.58

197.00
433.73

INDU
PSMC

490.01
216.40

25.6
18.9

27.2
32.9

54.0
74.5

57.6
64.0

47.2
40.6

499.50
227.75

301.87
121.37

DGKC
LUCK

89.16
359.94

-3.7
15.6

-5.4
14.5

26.8
48.6

28.1
106.1

4.0
20.0

96.43
369.08

67.74
171.89

EPCL
ICI
LOTCHEM
DAWH
EFERT
ENGRO
FATIMA
FFBL
FFC

14.87
378.00
6.94
83.71
67.60
199.24
31.72
40.03
113.00

1.1
16.0
2.8
3.5
13.8
6.4
-0.8
-2.9
3.1

-1.8
21.7
-11.0
21.1
n.a
11.0
8.6
-8.8
-3.7

17.2
120.8
6.8
68.2
n.a
49.9
24.3
4.8
9.6

30.9
163.4
-5.6
51.7
n.a
43.4
32.7
5.3
2.5

10.9
49.4
-5.4
49.2
n.a
25.8
11.1
-8.6
0.9

16.78
395.14
8.89
94.59
70.95
214.02
34.70
45.42
119.52

11.06
142.37
6.46
46.03
29.66
120.75
23.29
37.54
101.37

EFOODS

109.02

-5.3

0.9

32.4

-24.7

4.4

162.22

80.37

47.04

5.7

20.2

82.5

60.4

25.9

74.12

24.72

OGDC
POL
PSO

258.74
536.23
405.57

3.2
0.0
-4.1

-7.4
2.4
18.9

-1.0
12.7
50.4

27.7
14.8
101.8

-6.4
7.7
22.1

287.84
555.28
452.43

202.55
428.73
198.37

HUBC
KAPCO

53.28
59.93

0.9
1.4

-21.3
-8.5

-14.2
-1.7

-1.9
8.7

-12.3
-2.9

73.42
68.34

52.01
54.86

PTC

28.13

-8.1

-3.1

4.7

51.6

-1.1

33.15

17.46

NCL
NML

44.43
110.77

-5.6
-10.7

-31.1
-18.4

-15.6
23.9

-11.9
35.3

-26.2
-12.9

68.82
140.79

43.48
80.72

ABL
AKBL
BAFL
HBL
HMB
MCB
MEBL
NBP
UBL

127.39
18.02
27.76
188.88
31.87
283.61
41.04
56.23
181.70

51.8
5.4
7.8
16.4
27.6
18.9
11.8
4.6
23.3

54.6
26.9
-1.6
20.0
24.5
9.0
6.4
-3.5
31.9

73.0
64.1
22.6
38.6
44.9
15.7
8.0
12.9
46.8

147.8
25.6
85.2
130.8
118.1
51.3
60.9
35.7
107.2

55.7
28.7
2.7
24.7
27.1
11.0
4.2
-3.2
37.1

128.26
20.29
29.07
192.11
31.77
288.06
41.24
63.08
187.07

50.01
10.76
14.99
80.00
14.61
187.05
25.20
38.62
87.69

KSE-100 Index

Absolute Perform ance (%)

3M
6M
12M

Industrial Engineering
Al-Ghazi Tractor
Millat Tractors
Autom obile and Parts
Indus Motors
Pak Suzuki Motors

Construction and Materials

DG Khan Cement
Lucky Cement
Chem icals
Engro Polymer Chemicals
ICI Pakistan Limited
Lotte Pakistan PTA Limited
Daw ood Hercules
Engro Fertilizers Ltd.
Engro Chemical
Fatima Fertilizer
Fauji Fert. Bin Qasim Ltd.
Fauji Fertilizer Company
Food Producers
Engro Foods Limited
Non Life Insurance
Adamjee Insurance

AICL

Oil & Gas

Oil & Gas Development Co.
Pak Oilfields
Pakistan State Oil
Electricity
Hub Pow er Co.
Kot Addu Pow er Company

Fixed Line Telecom m unication

Pakistan Telecommunication
Personal Goods
Nisaht (Chunian) Ltd.
Nishat Mills
Banks
Allied Bank Limited
Askari Bank Limited
Bank AlFalah
Habib Bank Limited
Habib Metropolitan Bank
MCB Bank Limited
Meezan Bank Limited
National Bank of Pakistan
United Bank Ltd

Source: KSE & AKD Research

AKD Securities Limited

StockSmart

25 April 2014

Pakistan Weekly Update

Economic Snapshot
End Month Data

Units

Jul-13

Aug-13

Sep-13

Oct-13

Nov-13

Dec-13

Jan-14

Feb-14

Mar-14

T-bill
3M

8.93

9.00

9.15

9.47

9.63

9.93

9.92

9.91

9.94

6M

9.01

9.20

9.35

9.68

9.88

10.02

9.98

9.95

9.93

12M

9.00

9.28

9.41

9.76

9.91

10.05

9.99

9.99

9.95

PIB 10Y

11.57

11.97

12.28

12.83

12.93

12.90

12.59

12.80

12.67

KIBOR 6M

9.08

9.15

9.29

9.55

9.52

10.13

10.14

10.15

10.11

Discount rate

9.00

9.00

9.50

9.50

10.00

10.00

10.00

10.00

10.00

Headline inflation

8.26

8.55

7.40

9.10

10.90

9.18

7.90

7.90

8.50

Core inflation

8.20

8.50

8.70

8.40

8.50

8.20

8.00

7.80

7.60

Food inflation

9.20

10.30

7.90

9.80

13.00

9.30

7.20

7.60

9.30

Export (PBS)

US$ (mn)

2,095

1,996

2,622

1,864

1,804

2,275

2,061

2,167

2,263

Import (PBS)

US$ (mn)

3,814

3,572

3,791

3,281

3,651

3,561

4,137

3,600

3,690

Trade Deficit (PBS)

US$ (mn)

(1,576)

(1,169)

(1,417)

(1,847)

(1,286)

(2,076)

(1,433)

(1,427)

Home Remittances

US$ (mn)

1,404

1,233

1,283

1,348

1,131

1,385

1,246

1,210

1,337

Current Account

US$ (mn)

46

(575)

(574)

(166)

(572)

285

(464)

164

(156)

Deposits

PkR (bn)

7,069

7,174

7,125

7,133

7,309

7,529

7,566

7,599

7,571

Advances

PkR (bn)

3,788

3,817

3,831

3,921

4,008

4,071

4,127

4,110

4,100

Investments

PkR (bn)

3,837

3,708

3,873

3,776

4,035

4,070

4,217

4,443

4,503

Avg. lending rate

11.28

11.11

11.10

11.10

11.13

11.07

11.17

11.19

n.a

Avg. deposit rate

4.97

4.83

4.79

4.90

4.89

5.05

5.19

5.14

n.a

Spread rate

6.31

6.28

6.31

6.20

6.24

6.02

5.97

6.05

n.a

Inflation

External Indicators

(1,719)

Banking Sector

Public Finance
Tax collection

PkR (mn)

124,257

147,221

203,596

153,329

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

Direct taxes

PkR (mn)

30,745

44,574

86,436

50,466

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

Indirect Taxes

PkR (mn)

93,512

102,647

117,160

102,863

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

Reserves (RHS)

US$ (mn)

10,287

9,998

9,995

9,525

8,247

8,314

7,988

8,744

10,074

USDPkR - Interbank

PkR/USD

101.90

104.51

105.24

106.89

107.64

106.93

105.49

105.12

99.97

Currency

Source: SBP, PBS & AKD Research

AKD Securities Limited

StockSmart

25 April 2014

Pakistan Weekly Update

Analyst Certification
We, the AKD Research Team, hereby individually & jointly certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our personal views about the subject securities and issuers. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is,or will be, directly or indirectly, related
to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report. We further certify that we do not have any beneficial holding of the
specific securities that we have recommendations on in this report.

AKD Research Team

Analyst

Tel no.

E-mail

Coverage

Naveed Vakil
Raza Jafri, CFA
Anum Dhedhi
Asad I. Siddiqui
Bilal Alvi
Qasim Anwar
Hassan Quadri
Azher Ali Quli
Nasir Khan
Tariq Mehmood

+92 111 253 111 (692)

+92 111 253 111 (693)
+92 111 253 111 (637)
+92 111 253 111 (693)
+92 111 253 111 (647)
+92 111 253 111 (680)
+92 111 253 111 (639)
+92 111 253 111 (646)
+92 111 253 111 (646)
+92 111 253 111 (643)

[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]

Director - Research & Business Development

Pakistan Economy & Commercial Banks
Pakistan Economy
E&Ps & OMCs
Textiles, Cements & Chemical
Technical Analysis
Research Production / Autos
Research Production
Research Production
Library Operations

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