1ps5中國決策:領導人、結構、機制、過程
1ps5中國決策:領導人、結構、機制、過程
1ps5中國決策:領導人、結構、機制、過程
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Allison
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ThucydidesPeloponnesian
War
utilitarianism
utilityprobability1
Graham T.
Allison
Essence of Decision 1962
David Singer, Inter-nation Inuence: A Formal Model, American Political Science Review,
vol. LXII (June 1963), p. 424; Bruce M. Russett, The Calculus of Deterrence, Journal of
Conflict Resolution, vol. VII (June 1963), pp. 97-109.
Graham T. Allison, Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis (Boston: Little,
Brown and Company, 1971). Allison1999
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Herbert Simon
bounded
rationalityoptimizing
satisfying3 Thomas C.
Shelling
4
5
organizational process
modelorganizational behavior model
routines
Phil Williams, Donald M. Goldstein, and Jay M. Shafritz, Classic Readings of International
Relations, 2nd edition (Belmont, CA: Thomson Wadsworth, 1999), p. 142.
Thomas C. Shelling, The Strategy of Conflict (NY: Oxford University Press, 1963), pp. 15-19.
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6
governmental
or bureaucratic politics model
David A.
Welch
1949
6
Graham Allison and Philip Zelikow, Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile
Crisis, 2nd edition (NY: Longman, 1999), pp. 255-258.
David A. Welch, The Organizational Process and Bureaucratic Politics Paradigms: Retrospect
and Prospect, International Security, vol. 17, no. 2 (Fall 1992), pp. 112-146.
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Mao in command
1980
1994123
10
2001
31
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12
13
14
15
5
11
20078
12
Timothy Brook and B. Michael Frolic, eds., Civil Society in China (Armonk, NY: Sharpe,
1997); Rebecca R. Moore, Chinas Fledging Civil Society: A Force for Democratization?
World Policy Journal (Spring 2001), pp. 56-66.
13
Linda Jakobson and Dean Knox, New Foreign Policy Actors in China, SIPRI Policy Paper no.
26, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, September 2012, p. 24.
14
2004190
15
256
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fractured authority
17
18
16
Guobin Yang, The Internet and Civil Society in China: Coevolutionary Dynamics and Digital
Formations, in Lowell Dittmer and Guoli Liu, eds., Domestic Politics in Transition: Chinas
Deep Reform (Oxford: Rowman & Littleeld, 2006), pp. 303-318; Guobin Yang, The Power
of the Internet in China: Citizen Activism Online (NY: Columbia University Press, 2009).
17
Jakobson and Knox, New Foreign Policy Actors in China, pp. 48-49.
18
19581970
Yingyi Qian, The Process of Chinas Market
Transition, 1978-1998: The Evolutionary, Historical, and Comparative Perspectives, in
Dittmer and Liu, eds., Domestic Politics in Transition, pp. 244-246
1992
14
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A. Doak Barnett
19 John Lewis
20 Franz Schurmann
21
22
Lucian Pye
Richard Solomon
23
19
A. Doak Barnett, Cadres, Bureaucracy, and Political Power in China (N.Y.: Columbia
University Press, 1967).
20
John W. Lewis, Leadership in Communist China (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1963).
21
st
Franz Schurmann, Ideology and Organization in Communist China, 1 edition (Berkeley:
University of California Press, 1966).
22
95
2007121-13
23
Lucian Pye, The Spirit of Chinese Politics (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1968); Richard
Solomon, Maos Revolution and the Chinese Political Culture (Berkeley and LA: University
of California Press, 1971).
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24 70
Rational Model
A. Doak
Barnett 1974 Uncertain Passage
25
24
25
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Harry Harding
26
Power Model
Roderick MacFarquhar
27
28
29
26
Harry Harding, Organizing China (Stanford, Cal.: Stanford University Press, 1981).
27
Roderick MacFarquhar, The Origins of the Cultural Revolution, 2 vols. (NY: Columbia
University Press, 1974 and 1983).
28
Lucian Pye, The Dynamics of Chinese Politics (Cambridge: Oelgeschlager, Gunn, and Hain,
1981).
29
1976
1-13
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70
Fragmented
Authoritarianism Model
70
1950
70 cellular society
Kenneth LieberthalMichel
Oksenberg
disjoined
80
30
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31
1980
32 David M. Lampton
Bureaucracy, Politics, and
Decision Making in Post-Mao China
33
34
31
Lieberthal and Lampton, eds., Bureaucracy, Politics, and Decision Making in Post-Mao
China, p. 8.
32
Lieberthal and Oksenberg, Policy Making in China: Leaders, Structures, and Processes, p.
22; Lieberthal and Lampton, eds., Bureaucracy, Politics, and Decision Making in Post-Mao
China, pp. 7-8.
33
Lieberthal and Lampton, eds., Bureaucracy, Politics, and Decision Making in Post-Mao
China, p. 20.
34
Lieberthal and Lampton, eds., Bureaucracy, Politics, and Decision Making in Post-Mao
China, p. 11.
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35
36
Linda Jakobson
35
Lieberthal and Oksenberg, Policy Making in China: Leaders, Structures, and Processes, p. 22.
36
Susan L. Shirk, The Chinese Political System and the Political Strategy of Economic
Reform, in Lieberthal and Lampton, eds., Bureaucracy, Politics, and Decision Making in
Post-Mao China, p. 68.
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37
38
policy mix
37
Jakobson and Knox, New Foreign Policy Actors in China, pp. 17-18.
38
Lieberthal and Oksenberg, Policy Making in China: Leaders, Structures, and Processes,
p. 283. (A. Doak Barnett) The Making of Foreign Policy in China
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1950 1986
39
40
1958
1965 152
1966 162 152
8 41
1980
39
Lieberthal and Oksenberg, Policy Making in China: Leaders, Structures, and Processes, p.
270.
40
Lieberthal and Lampton, eds., Bureaucracy, Politics, and Decision Making in Post-Mao
China, p. 41.
41
Lieberthal and Lampton, eds., Bureaucracy, Politics, and Decision Making in Post-Mao
China, pp. 45-46.
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80
42 80
documentary politics
43
Carol Lee Hamrin and Suisheng Zhao, Introduction: Core Issues in Understanding the
Decision Process, in Hamrin and Suisheng Zhao, eds., Decision-making in Dengs China:
Perspectives from Insiders (Armond, NY: M.E. Sharpe, 1995), pp. xxxvii-xliv.
43
Guoguang Wu, Documentary Politics : Hypotheses, Process, and Case Studies, in Hamrin
and Zhao, eds., Decision-making in Dengs China: Perspectives from Insiders, pp. 24-38.
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80
centralized
authority
44
compartmentalization
45
90
Hamrin
The Making of Chinese Foreign and Security Policy
WTO
46
44
Yan Jiaqi, The Nature of Chinese Authoritarianism, in Hamrin and Zhao, eds., Decisionmaking in Dengs China: Perspectives from Insiders, p. xxx.
45
Hamrin and Zhao, Introduction: Core Issues in Understanding the Decision Process, p.
xxxiii.
46
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1.
professionalization
specializationdifferentiation
1980
47
2. corporate pluralization48
3.
1984
1992 1988
1980
49
47
48
49
Peter Cheung and James Tang, The External Relations of Chinas Provinces, in Lampton,
ed., The Making of Chinese Foreign and Security Policy in the Era of Reform, 1978-2000, pp.
91-122.
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70
Lowell Dittmer
Avery Goldstein
Andrew
NathanTang Tsoupersonalistic
patron-client relationship50
informal politics51
bandwagon
balance-of-power
political action group
50
51
Dittmer and Wu, Modernization of Factionalism in Chinese Politics, pp. 467-494; Lowell
Dittmer, Patterns of Elite Strife and Succession in Chinese Politics, pp. 405-430; Lowell
Dittmer, The Changing Shape of Elite Power Politics, pp. 53-67.
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