The Long Case For LKQ Corporation
The Long Case For LKQ Corporation
The Long Case For LKQ Corporation
Recommendation: Buy
Team 10
Ziv Israel
Owen Gilmore
Jerry Jiang
presented by
RECOMMENDATION: BUY
Summary Valuation
Current Price: 28.94
Target Price: 35.2
Est. Timing: 1-2 Years
Upside: 22%
$691
4.0%
$8,405
$691
Terminal multiple
10.5x
Terminal value
$7,446
10.5x
$8,137
$2,458
$10,595
8.0%
$8,405
7,446
4.0%
$8,137
$2,458
Equity value
$10,595
Diluted shares:
300.8
Diluted shares:
300.8
$35.22
$35.22
Price Target
$35.20
$28.94
Implied upside
22%
| Page 1
Jack Ferraro, MBA
70
presented by
Company Description
LKQ provides replacement parts, components and systems
needed to repair cars and trucks. Buyers of vehicle replacement
products have the option to purchase from primarily five sources:
new products produced by original equipment manufacturers
("OEMs"); new products produced by companies other than the
OEMs, which are sometimes referred to as aftermarket products;
recycled products obtained from salvage vehicles; used products
that have been refurbished; and used products that have been
remanufactured.
| Page 2
Jack Ferraro, MBA
70
presented by
Value Proposition
Why buy alternative parts?
They are simply cheaper.
Historically, the distribution
channels for aftermarket and
refurbished products have been
distinct and separate from those
for recycled and
remanufactured products
despite serving the same
customer segment
presented by
| Page 4
Jack Ferraro, MBA
70
presented by
Addressable Market
| Page 5
Jack Ferraro, MBA
70
presented by
| Page 6
Jack Ferraro, MBA
70
presented by
Keystone
Specialities
Transwheel
Bodymaster
Auto
Keystone
Automatic
Industries
LKQ
Metro
East
Salvage
| Page 7
Jack Ferraro, MBA
70
presented by
| Page 8
Jack Ferraro, MBA
70
presented by
12 months
Dec-31-2010
12 months
Dec-31-2011
12 months
Dec-31-2012
12 months
Dec-31-2013
LTM
12 months
Sep-30-2014
Profitability
Return on Assets %
Return on Capital %
Return on Equity %
Return on Common Equity %
7.5%
8.4%
11.6%
11.6%
8.6%
9.8%
12.9%
12.9%
8.4%
10.0%
13.8%
13.8%
7.6%
9.3%
14.5%
14.5%
8.2%
10.0%
14.4%
14.4%
8.2%
10.0%
15.4%
15.4%
Margin Analysis
Gross Margin %
SG&A Margin %
EBITDA Margin %
EBITA Margin %
EBIT Margin %
Net Income Margin %
45.3%
32.2%
13.3%
11.6%
11.4%
6.2%
44.3%
30.6%
13.8%
12.3%
12.1%
6.8%
42.6%
29.8%
13.0%
11.5%
11.3%
6.4%
41.4%
29.6%
12.0%
10.5%
10.3%
6.3%
41.0%
28.7%
12.3%
10.9%
10.7%
6.2%
39.7%
27.8%
12.0%
10.7%
10.2%
5.9%
4.2x
1.6x
26.8
116.7
18.1
125.3
3.7x
1.3x
25.4
116.5
15.7
126.1
2.9x
0.8x
26.4
119.5
24.7
121.2
2.8x
0.8x
26.3
124.0
30.5
119.8
2.7x
0.9x
27.8
120.8
32.8
115.8
3.0x
1.1x
30.0
112.1
30.2
112.0
| Page 9
Jack Ferraro, MBA
70
presented by
Investment Thesis
T
E
R
R
I
F
I
C
1) International Expansion
O
P
P
O
R
T
U
N
I
T
Y
presented by
presented by
presented by
| Page 13
Jack Ferraro, MBA
70
presented by
presented by
Bargaining Power of
Suppliers: Medium
In 2013, approximately
46% of LKQs
aftermarket purchases
were made from their
top five vendors, with
their largest vendor
providing approximately
12% of our inventory.
Bargaining Power of
Buyers: Low
No single customer
accounted for 2% or more
of revenue in 2013.
| Page 15
Jack Ferraro, MBA
70
presented by
| Page 16
Jack Ferraro, MBA
70
presented by
presented by
| Page 18
Jack Ferraro, MBA
70
presented by
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
97
48
16
161
37%
59.57
95
49
17
161
38%
61.18
94
54
17
165
39%
62.7
94
59
17
170
40%
64.6
98
63
18
179
41%
68.02
3,802.9
3020
1117.4
3.40
1.259248013
4,118.1
3080
1170.4
3.52
1.337049935
3130
1220.7
3180
1272
3200
1312
105
66
18
189 From Company Presentation
42%
71.82 From Company Presentation
From IBIS World
3240
1360.8
3,802.93
4,118.11
4,295.10
4,475.60
4,616.34
4,788.05
18.7578
19.1304
18.9697
18.7059
17.8771
17.1429
261
4896
16,662.91
7%
1,166.40
269
5046
17,173.42
9%
1,545.61
277
5196
17,683.93
13%
2,298.91
285
5346
18,194.43
16%
2,911.11
800
800
Speciality
Total Revenue
2018
796.4
4,969.33
6,460.15
7,394.01
8,186.71
294
303
5515
5684
18,769.60 19,344.77
20%
25% Requires Acquisitions
3,753.92
4,836.19
800
9,170.26
800
10,424.24
| Page 19
presented by
12/2009
12/2010
12/2011
12/2012
12/2013
2,048
2,470
3,270
4,123
5,063
20.6%
32.4%
26.1%
22.8%
11.72%
290
103
187
10.84%
354
126
229
10.69%
441
148
293
38
51
56
91
41
133
61
33
55
165
86
32
5.7%
17.9%
20.6%
21.9%
17.0%
30.6%
10.0%
-63.3%
11.7%
1.3%
35.6%
11.60%
238
78
159
Projected
-16.5%
11.6%
4.4%
32.9%
12/2014
12/2015
12/2016
12/2017
12/2018
6,460
7,394
8,187
9,170
10,424
27.6%
14.5%
10.7%
12.0%
13.7%
10.41%
527
164
363
10.5%
678
229
450
11.0%
822
277
545
11.5%
997
336
661
11.5%
1,209
408
801
11.5%
1,465
494
971
70
175
88
100
86
105
90
255
110
240
97
222
126
297
105
269
140
368
113
320
157
455
121
381
178
563
131
455
32.4%
22.4%
22.7%
28.9%
40.7%
-2.5%
26.1%
24.3%
27.8%
23.9%
2.1%
206.7%
22.8%
19.6%
24.0%
11.5%
2.2%
155.7%
27.6%
28.7%
23.9%
23.7%
7.7%
-12.6%
14.5%
21.2%
21.2%
23.7%
7.7%
21.1%
10.7%
21.2%
21.2%
23.7%
7.7%
18.8%
12.0%
21.2%
21.2%
23.7%
7.7%
19.1%
13.7%
21.2%
21.2%
23.7%
7.7%
19.5%
10.8%
1.0%
35.4%
10.7%
2.4%
33.6%
10.4%
5.0%
31.2%
10.5%
3.4%
33.7%
11.1%
3.6%
33.7%
12.2%
3.9%
33.7%
13.2%
4.2%
33.7%
14.1%
4.4%
33.7%
| Page 20
Jack Ferraro, MBA
70
presented by
Upside/Downside Ratio is
approximately 6:1
(Asymmetric Return)
5.5%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.5%
9.50x
10.50x
11.50x
12.50x
32.4
30.1
28.6
27.2
25.2
36.2
33.5
31.9
30.4
28.2
39.9
37.0
35.2
33.5
31.2
43.6
40.5
38.5
36.7
34.1
47.3
44.0
41.9
39.9
37.1
Disc. Rate
Upside
8.50x
9.50x 10.50x
11.50x
12.50x
5.5%
12%
25%
38%
51%
64%
7.0%
4%
16%
28%
40%
52%
8.0%
-1%
10%
22%
33%
45%
9.0%
-6%
5%
16%
27%
38%
10.5%
-13%
-3%
8%
18%
28%
| Page 21
Jack Ferraro, MBA
70
presented by
| Page 22
Jack Ferraro, MBA
70
presented by
Investment Catalysts
1) Future acquisitions will grab the markets attention
LKQ currently produces $255mil in Free Cash Flow
2) Rebound in EBIT margin and earnings after European
integration is complete
3) Entry into France and Germany, two huge markets
will increase revenues substantially
| Page 23
Jack Ferraro, MBA
70
presented by
Investment Summary
LKQs international expansion is just starting, and its going
strong
Strong industry tailwinds signals a bright future for LKQs core
business
Strong moat from advanced information technology systems
prevents new entrants from seizing market share
presented by
| Page 25
presented by
APPENDIX
LKQ Company
| Page 26
Jack Ferraro, MBA
70
presented by
MANAGEMENT TEAM
Name/Position
Robert L. Wagman
President & Chief Executive
Officer
John S. Quinn
Executive Vice President and
Chief Financial Officer
Victor M. Casini
Senior Vice President, General
Counsel
Background
Robert L. Wagman became our President and Chief Executive Officer
on January 1, 2012. He was elected to our Board of Directors on
November 7, 2011. Mr. Wagman was LKQs President and Co-Chief
Executive Officer from January 1, 2011 to January 1, 2012
John S. Quinn has been our Executive Vice President and Chief
Financial Officer since November 2009. Prior to joining our Company,
he was the Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer
of Casella Waste Systems, Inc., a company in the solid waste
management services industry from January 2009.
Victor M. Casini has been our Vice President, General Counsel and
Corporate Secretary from our inception in February 1998. In March
2008, he was elected Senior Vice President. Mr. Casini was a member
of our Board of Directors from May 2010 until May 2012.
| Page 27
Jack Ferraro, MBA
70
presented by
Ownership Summary
| Page 28
Jack Ferraro, MBA
70
presented by
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
97
48
16
161
37%
59.57
95
49
17
161
38%
61.18
94
54
17
165
39%
62.7
94
59
17
170
40%
64.6
98
63
18
179
41%
68.02
105
66
18
189
42%
71.82
3,802.9
3020
1117.4
3.40
1.259248013
4,118.1
3080
1170.4
3.52
1.337049935
3130
1220.7
3180
1272
3200
1312
3240
1360.8
3,802.93
4,118.11
4,295.10
4,475.60
4,616.34
4,788.05
18.7578
19.1304
18.9697
18.7059
17.8771
17.1429
261
4896
16,662.91
7%
1,166.40
269
5046
17,173.42
9%
1,545.61
277
5196
17,683.93
12%
2,122.07
285
5346
18,194.43
15%
2,729.16
800
800
Speciality
Total Revenue
796.4
4,969.33
6,460.15
7,217.17
8,004.76
294
303
5515
5684
18,769.60 19,344.77
17%
20%
3,190.83
3,868.95
800
8,607.17
800
9,457.00
| Page 29
presented by
5.5%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.5%
9.50x
10.50x
11.50x
12.50x
25.2
23.4
22.2
21.1
19.5
28.2
26.2
24.9
23.6
21.9
31.2
29.0
27.5
26.2
24.3
34.3
31.8
30.2
28.7
26.7
37.3
34.6
32.9
31.3
29.1
Disc. Rate
Downside
8.50x
9.50x 10.50x
11.50x
12.50x
5.5%
-13%
-2%
8%
18%
29%
7.0%
-19%
-10%
0%
10%
19%
8.0%
-23%
-14%
-5%
4%
14%
9.0%
-27%
-18%
-10%
-1%
8%
10.5%
-33%
-24%
-16%
-8%
0%
| Page 30
Jack Ferraro, MBA
70
presented by
| Page 31
Jack Ferraro, MBA
70
presented by
| Page 32
Jack Ferraro, MBA
70
presented by
HISTORICAL MULTIPLES
| Page 33
Jack Ferraro, MBA
70
presented by
| Page 34
Jack Ferraro, MBA
70
presented by
Income Statement
12 m onths
Dec-31-2009
USD
12 m onths
Dec-31-2010
USD
12 m onths
Dec-31-2011
USD
12 m onths
Dec-31-2012
USD
12 m onths
Dec-31-2013
USD
LTM
12 m onths
Sep-30-2014
USD
Revenue
Other Revenue
Total Revenue
2,047.9
2,047.9
2,469.9
2,469.9
3,269.9
3,269.9
4,122.9
4,122.9
5,062.5
5,062.5
6,372.6
6,372.6
1,120.1
927.8
1,376.4
1,093.5
1,877.9
1,392.0
2,416.7
1,706.2
2,987.1
2,075.4
3,839.6
2,533.0
659.7
34.1
-
756.9
38.0
-
973.0
49.9
-
1,219.3
64.1
-
1,454.1
81.0
-
1,769.7
110.3
-
693.8
794.9
1,022.9
1,283.4
1,535.0
1,880.0
Operating Incom e
234.0
298.5
369.1
422.8
540.4
653.0
Interest Expense
Interest and Invest. Income
Net Interest Exp.
(32.3)
1.4
(30.9)
(29.8)
1.4
(28.3)
(24.3)
1.9
(22.4)
(31.4)
0.2
(31.2)
(51.2)
0.4
(50.8)
(63.0)
0.4
(62.7)
78.2
127.1
103.0
167.1
125.5
210.3
147.9
261.2
164.2
311.6
196.6
378.9
0.4
127.5
2.0
169.1
210.3
261.2
311.6
378.9
127.5
169.1
210.3
261.2
311.6
378.9
| Page 35
Jack Ferraro, MBA
70
presented by
Balance Sheet
Balance Sheet as of:
Dec-31-2009
USD
Dec-31-2010
USD
Dec-31-2011
USD
Dec-31-2012
USD
Dec-31-2013
USD
Sep-30-2014
USD
108.9
108.9
95.7
95.7
48.2
48.2
59.8
59.8
150.5
150.5
244.6
244.6
Accounts Receivable
Total Receivables
152.4
152.4
191.1
191.1
281.8
281.8
311.8
311.8
458.1
458.1
609.4
609.4
Inventory
Prepaid Exp.
Deferred Tax Assets, Curr.
Other Current Assets
Total Current Assets
385.7
9.6
31.8
14.4
702.9
492.7
14.0
32.5
10.9
836.9
736.8
19.6
45.7
17.6
1,149.7
900.8
28.9
53.5
29.5
1,384.4
1,077.0
42.3
63.9
8.1
1,799.8
1,341.3
76.1
74.0
2,345.5
397.9
(108.0)
289.9
473.7
(142.4)
331.3
604.0
(180.0)
424.1
725.5
(231.1)
494.4
840.8
(294.2)
546.7
612.3
Long-term Investments
Goodw ill
Other Intangibles
Deferred Tax Assets, LT
Deferred Charges, LT
Other Long-Term Assets
Total Assets
938.8
67.2
21.3
2,020.1
4.8
1,033.0
69.3
24.2
2,299.5
1,476.1
108.9
40.9
3,199.7
1,690.3
106.7
0.2
0.3
47.3
3,723.5
8.9
1,937.4
153.7
1.5
15.8
54.9
4,518.8
9.5
2,257.2
221.0
89.0
5,534.6
LIABILITIES
Accounts Payable
Accrued Exp.
Curr. Port. of LT Debt
Curr. Income Taxes Payable
Unearned Revenue, Current
Def. Tax Liability, Curr.
Other Current Liabilities
Total Current Liabilities
51.3
89.0
15.1
9.3
3.8
168.5
76.4
82.1
54.3
12.5
225.3
210.9
131.0
29.5
7.3
1.6
17.4
397.7
219.3
134.1
72.4
2.7
0.0
59.3
487.9
349.1
177.0
41.5
17.4
3.4
89.6
678.0
403.6
261.0
72.9
33.9
771.4
Long-Term Debt
Def. Tax Liability, Non-Curr.
Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Liabilities
598.2
52.2
21.8
840.7
548.1
66.1
45.9
885.3
937.2
88.8
132.0
1,555.6
1,061.7
102.3
107.4
1,759.4
1,272.7
133.8
83.5
2,168.0
1,830.7
159.3
105.5
2,866.9
Common Stock
Additional Paid In Capital
Retained Earnings
Treasury Stock
Comprehensive Inc. and Other
Total Com m on Equity
1.4
816.0
369.5
(7.4)
1,179.4
1.5
869.8
538.5
4.4
1,414.2
2.9
901.3
748.8
(9.0)
1,644.1
3.0
950.3
1,010.0
0.8
1,964.1
3.0
1,006.1
1,321.6
20.0
2,350.7
3.0
1,044.0
1,622.7
(2.0)
2,667.7
Total Equity
1,179.4
1,414.2
1,644.1
1,964.1
2,350.7
2,667.7
2,020.1
2,299.5
3,199.7
3,723.5
4,518.8
5,534.6
Currency
ASSETS
Cash And Equivalents
Total Cash & ST Investm ents
| Page 36
presented by
Cash Flow
Reclassified
12 m onths
Dec-31-2009
USD
12 m onths
Dec-31-2010
USD
12 m onths
Dec-31-2011
USD
12 m onths
Dec-31-2012
USD
12 m onths
Dec-31-2013
USD
LTM
12 m onths
Sep-30-2014
USD
Net Incom e
Depreciation & Amort.
Amort. of Goodw ill and Intangibles
Depreciation & Am ort., Total
127.5
34.0
4.1
38.1
169.1
37.2
4.2
41.4
210.3
46.6
7.9
54.5
261.2
60.7
9.5
70.2
311.6
72.7
11.1
83.7
378.9
86.0
26.5
112.5
Other Amortization
Asset Writedow n & Restructuring Costs
Stock-Based Compensation
Tax Benefit from Stock Options
Net Cash From Discontinued Ops.
Other Operating Activities
Change in Acc. Receivable
Change In Inventories
Change in Acc. Payable
Change in Unearned Rev.
Change in Inc. Taxes
Change in Other Net Operating Assets
Cash from Ops.
2.5
(4.3)
7.3
(9.6)
(0.4)
6.6
(0.4)
(20.4)
(18.1)
1.4
24.1
9.9
164.0
10.0
(15.0)
8.9
(12.3)
(67.8)
10.2
7.5
7.3
159.2
13.1
(8.0)
15.9
(18.1)
(90.1)
28.6
2.3
3.3
211.8
15.6
(15.7)
8.7
(12.8)
(95.0)
(15.1)
(0.8)
(10.1)
206.2
2.7
22.0
(18.3)
13.9
(44.7)
(69.2)
49.6
50.0
26.6
428.1
2.7
22.7
(16.8)
9.9
(79.1)
(106.3)
49.4
30.3
5.4
409.8
Capital Expenditure
Sale of Property, Plant, and Equipment
Cash Acquisitions
Divestitures
Invest. in Marketable & Equity Securt.
Net (Inc.) Dec. in Loans Originated/Sold
Other Investing Activities
Cash from Investing
(55.9)
1.1
(65.2)
17.5
(102.5)
(61.4)
1.4
(143.6)
12.0
(191.6)
(86.4)
1.7
(486.9)
(571.6)
(88.3)
1.1
(265.3)
(352.5)
(90.2)
2.1
(408.4)
(9.1)
(505.6)
(129.3)
3.8
(663.0)
(2.2)
(790.7)
2.3
2.3
(53.0)
(53.0)
(7.5)
(7.5)
1,361.4
1,361.4
(1,058.8)
(1,058.8)
1,025.1
1,025.1
(896.9)
(896.9)
1,113.5
1,113.5
(931.5)
(931.5)
1,428.3
(883.8)
8.2
14.0
11.9
17.7
15.4
8.3
9.3
(33.2)
12.5
19.0
(3.1)
311.4
11.2
157.1
(31.5)
165.9
(32.8)
520.0
1.5
29.8
0.2
(13.2)
1.0
(47.4)
0.8
11.5
2.3
90.7
(1.8)
137.3
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