Aircraft Windshield Reliability Final Paper
Aircraft Windshield Reliability Final Paper
Aircraft Windshield Reliability Final Paper
3-Parameter Weibull
99.9
90
99
50
Percent
Percent
C orrelation C oefficient
3-P arameter Weibull
0.992
3-P arameter Lognormal
0.991
2-P arameter E xponential
*
3-P arameter Loglogistic
0.984
3-Parameter Lognormal
99.9
10
90
50
10
1
0.1
1
Failure Times - Threshold
0.1
10
14
16
18
Failure Times - Threshold
2-Parameter Exponential
99.9
3-Parameter Loglogistic
99.9
90
99
50
Percent
Percent
20
10
90
50
10
1
0.1
0.0001
0.1
9
12
Failure Times - Threshold
15
Weibull
99.9
90
99
50
P er cent
P er cent
C orrelation C oefficient
Weibull
0.934
Lognormal
0.861
E xponential
*
Loglogistic
0.875
Lognormal
99.9
10
90
50
10
0.1
0.1
1
0.1
1.0
Failur e T imes
10.0
0.1
E xponential
99.9
90
99
50
P er cent
P er cent
10.0
Loglogistic
99.9
10
90
50
10
1
0.1
0.001
1.0
Failur e T imes
1
0.010
0.100
1.000
Failur e T imes
10.000
0.1
0.1
1.0
Failur e T imes
10.0
Table of S tatistics
S hape
1.94482
S cale
2.99246
M ean
2.65362
S tDev
1.42251
M edian
2.47847
IQ R
1.96280
F ailure
88
C ensor
0
A D*
1.373
C orrelation
0.934
Weibull
99.9
0.3
P er cent
90
P DF
0.2
50
10
0.1
0.0
2
4
Failur e T imes
0.1
0.1
S urv iv al F unction
10.0
H azard F unction
1.5
100
1.0
Rate
P er cent
1.0
Failur e T imes
50
0.5
0
0
2
4
Failur e T imes
0.0
2
4
Failur e T imes
Figure 6. Plot of the failure rate function (F) versus the reliability function (R = 1 F).
Next, both the failure probability density function (f(t)) and the hazard function (z)
were graphed individually. The failure probability density function is shown in
Figure 7, demonstrates the likelihood that the windshield will fail, independent of the
amount of time it has been in service. For this system, it might not be an accurate
estimate because the likelihood of failure is dependent on the amount of time the
aircraft has been in service.
The hazard rate function (z) demonstrates the probability that a windshield will fail,
given that it has reached a particular age. The graph in Figure 8 shows that the
likelihood of windshield failure increases as it ages.
After all calculations were completed in Maple, excel was used to run a Monte Carlo
simulation to verify the reliability function. The two reliability functions can be seen
below, and, although not perfect, they have a similar shape ensuring that Monte
Carlo is a valid way to replicate the data analyzed in Maple.
1.000
0.800
0.600
0.400
0.200
0.000
0
Figure 9. The reliability function from Maple versus the reliability function from
Monte Carlo simulation
Conclusion
During this analysis it was determine that the Weibull, although not the best fit for
an estimate, was an appropriate substitute for the three-parameter weibull
distribution originally found to be the best fit. Additionally, a Monte Carlo
simulation has been created in Excel to determine the probability of failure at any
given time.
One of the goals of this analysis was to look at its application to warranty costs.
However, the costs of repair are not available and made that analysis impossible at
this time. However, when looking into warranty costs, users can assume a mean
time to failure of about 4500 hours for all calculations.
References
1. Bliske, Wallace R, Reliability- Modeling, Prediction, and Optimization, 2000,
John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Chapter 2: Illustrative Cases and Data Sets, pp 36.