Africa S Top 15 Cities in 2030
Africa S Top 15 Cities in 2030
Africa S Top 15 Cities in 2030
trade
opportunities
diversity opportunity
challenges
expansion
momentum sectoral shape disposable
economic power
productivity change
investment resource investment
spending power
power
consumption
retail patterns trade
diversity
income
evolve
change
expansion exports
capability
evolve
resource
consumer
analysis
pace of
growth
tradegrowth
patterns
momentum
retail
evolve
commercial
rapid diversity
trade
boom
social
change
income
investment
exports
Sponsored by
Bright Continent
Executive summary
Half a century on from independence, many African economies are finally
exhibiting a dynamism that has been absent for too long. Annual economic
growth across the continent has averaged 4.5% since 2000. The Oxford
Economics forecast suggests that GDP growth is set to outstrip that of any other
world region between now and 2030.
Aggregate spending
power will balloon from
$420 billion to $1 trillion,
making it the worlds
last mass market
consumer frontier.
Total population
2030 (millions)
Total population
agregate growth rate
20122030 (%)
25
125%
20
15
10
5
1
100%
75%
50%
25%
0%
Bright Continent
If the continent can tackle its infrastructure and governance challenges, then we
can expect to see strong economic growth throughout Africa and its cities over
the next two decades. The continents large urban areas will be the engine room
of that expansion. Today, Africas major cities account for almost $700bn of
GDP, 36% of Africas total output. By 2030, our forecast indicates that the GDP
of these cities will more than double to reach $1.7 trillion. (All monetary values
are expressed in constant, 2012 dollars).
Africas top cities also represent a large and growing consumer market. Exceeding
its growth in other regions, disposable income in Africas major cities will average
5.6% growth per year. Aggregate spending power will balloon from $420 billion
to $1 trillion, making it the worlds last mass market consumer frontier.
Africas economic giants in 2030
200
300%
150
200%
100
50
10
100%
0%
Differences in the evolution of the continents cities are changing the distribution
of economic output and consumer power, away from the cities of Northern
Africa and South Africa, and towards areas of Sub-Saharan Africa, east and
west, which have in the past lagged behind.
51 of the 96 cities in our forecast are set to see population growth of more
than 50% by 2030. Lagos will more than double in size to over 25 million
people, becoming the continents biggest city by some distance.
2
Bright Continent
The economic output of cities such as Dar Es Salaam in Tanzania and Luanda
in Angola will grow rapidly, allowing them to join the African economic giants
of Cape Town, Cairo and Johannesburg by 2030.
More mature cities, such as Johannesburg and Cairo will see their aggregate
consumer spending power double by 2030, while spending in cities such as
Abuja, Nigeria and Huambo, Angola spending will be between three and five
times bigger by 2030 than it is today.
A different set of heavyweights across population, GDP and GDP per capita
Rank
GDP 2030
Lagos (2)
25,145
Johannesburg (1)
196
Libreville (2)
29,749
Kinshasa (3)
16,707
Cairo (2)
168
Gabarone (3)
26,836
Cairo (1)
14,105
Luanda (4)
138
Malabo (1)
24,854
Luanda (5)
9,768
Lagos (8)
76
Johannesburg (5)
20,830
9,449
73
20,769
Johannesburg (4)
9,426
Pretoria (5)
67
Pretoria (4)
20,438
Abidjan (8)
7,712
Durban (6)
62
16,013
Khartoum (6)
7,306
Alexandria (7)
56
Windhoek (8)
14,818
Nairobi (13)
6,593
49
Tunis (12)
14,504
10
Alexandria (7)
6,332
Tunis (11)
47
Luanda (14)
14,126
11
Abuja (27)
6,029
Algiers (10)
46
Bloemfontein (10)
13,823
12
Kano (14)
5,672
Casablanca (9)
39
Constantine (19)
13,668
13
Douala (20)
5,013
Khartoum (14)
35
Durban (9)
13,435
14
Ibadan (17)
5,011
Libreville (12)
30
13,128
15
Dakar (16)
5,011
Nairobi (17)
27
Oran (18)
12,989
Understanding evolving
consumer demand
across different parts of
the continent is an
essential element of
building a business
strategy to serve it.
Bright Continent
Bright Continent
Huambo
200
Luanda
Consumer spending per capita growth (%,2012-2030)
180
160
Freetown
140
Addis Ababa
120
Cairo
Tunis
100
Kigali
Libreville
Kinshasa
Ibadan
Port
Mombasa Harcourt Kampala
Alexandra
60
Cape Town
Dakar
Johannesburg
80
Ouagadougou
Abuja
Lagos
Nairobi
40
0%-100%
20
Mmbabane
200%+
Accra
0
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
Finally, this report explores the changing industrial structure of the continents
major cities and how it is likely to change in the years ahead. Sector analysis
gives a clearer picture of the sources of each citys economic power as well as
its stage of economic development.
In Lagos, an example of a low-income consumer city, we can expect to
see consumer services grow from contributing 52% of the citys output to
providing 57%.
Transition cities such as Cairo, following a more conventional development
path, will see the contribution of secondary industry shrink from 44% to 35% of
overall output, as other sectors like transport, information and communication,
and consumer services take a proportionately larger role in the citys output.
Finally, in Africas more advanced service cities, such as Cape Town, the
industrial structure will remain broadly similar between now and 2030, reflecting
the slower evolution expected in more mature, service-based economies.
The picture of Africas cities painted by this Oxford Economics analysis is one of
economic diversity and commercial opportunity. There are risks to the positive
outlook. But if Africas cities and states can navigate the political, social and
economic challenges ahead, their future and that of the firms doing business
in them looks bright.
5
Bright Continent
A large amount of data does exist. But, there are gaps in the data which our analytical
methods have sought to remedy. For example, few cities have official GDP estimates, and
because of the informal nature of many African cities, comprehensive urban income data
is a rarity. But having built up a rich collection of urban data across many other countries
on the continent, and across the globe, and by anchoring on Oxford Economics national
macroeconomic projections, our economists have been able to fill these gaps.
Methods to fill data gaps have been varied and sophisticated, drawing upon our
understanding of numerous economic dynamics such as: how the economic structure
of cities varies against the national structure; how city productivity compares to national
productivity; and how income relates to consumer spending.
Where official data does exist, in some instances there are question marks over its
veracity. On the whole, consumer spending data conforms to a broadly consistent
pattern, and evolves in a predictable way as average income rises. But some country
and city data suggest spending patterns we would not have predicted.
Since these projections are based on official data, we have retained them despite their
implications, but not without flagging their limitations.
Economic output
of Africas top cities
will be 152% greater
by 2030
OXFORD
Abbey House, 121 St Aldates
Oxford, OX1 1HB, UK
Tel: +44 1865 268900
LONDON
Broadwall House, 21 Broadwall
London, SE1 9PL, UK
Tel: +44 207 803 1400
BELFAST
Lagan House, Sackville Street
Lisburn, BT27 4AB, UK
Tel: +44 28 9266 0669
NEW YORK
5 Hanover Square, 19th Floor
New York, NY 10004, USA
Tel: +1 (646) 786 1879
PHILADELPHIA
303 Lancaster Avenue, Suite 1b
Wayne PA 19087, USA
Tel: +1 610 995 9600
Chicago
Oxford Economics USA
980 N. Michigan Avenue, Suite 1412
Chicago, Illinois, IL 60611, USA
Tel: +1 (312) 214 3545
Los Angeles
Oxford Economics USA
2110 Main Street
Santa Monica, CA 90405, USA
Tel: +1 (310) 310 4596
SINGAPORE
Singapore Land Tower, 37th Floor
50 Raffles Place
Singapore 048623
Tel: +65 6829 7068
PARIS
9 rue Huysmans
75006 Paris, France
Tel: + 33 6 79 900 846
Sydney
Oxford Economics
Level 4, 95 Pitt Street
Sydney, 2000
Australia
+61 (0)2 8249 8286
email: [email protected]
www.oxfordeconomics.com