Copal Partners Module
Copal Partners Module
Copal Partners Module
Index
Table of Content
Valuation Methodologies
14
A. Valuation Techniques
18
21
95
D. DCF Valuation
112
150
A. Profiles
154
B. Case Studies
175
C. Industry overview
187
D. Research Techniques
205
Buy & Sell securities for their clients and provide stock advice
Facilitate buying and selling of stocks, bonds, options, currencies, derivatives and
other financial products (Flow & Exotic)
Clients include Institutional Investors like pension funds, mutual funds, private clients/
HNIs and individual investors, investment arms of non-finance companies
Follow stocks and make recommendations on whether to buy, sell or hold securities
Analyze and forecast economic trends, interest rate movements and other industry
level parameters and perform valuations on companies within industry sectors they
follow
Work with clients in determining financing needs and structuring specific financial
strategies
Provide advice on Mergers and Acquisitions, foreign exchange, economic and market
trends, and specific financial strategies such as corporate restructurings
Equity Research
Corporate Finance /
Advisory
Financing
M&A
Corporate Finance
Corporate Finance
Prospectus,
Placement
memorandums,
Valuation,
Underwriting
M&A valuation,
Deal structuring,
Restructuring,
Asset sales and
purchase,
Synergy analyses
Equity Research
Analyst Presentation
Equity Research
Initiation reports
Coverage report
Road shows
Coverage Report
Coverage report
Event Report
Deal notes
Corporates
Sales & Trading
Market making
Proprietary Trading
Market making
Proprietary Trading
Chinese Wall
Experience
Education
Managing Director
Vice President
Associate
Analyst
8+ Years
Top Undergraduate
Universities,
Top Undergraduate
Universities,
3- 8 Years
0-3 Years
0-1 Years
Top Undergraduate
Universities,
Top Undergraduate
University
Role
Managing Directors primarily pitch ideas to
clients to source deals.
Managing Directors spend most of their time in
bringing business to the banks, executing
transactions for clients and maintaining existing
client relationships.
Vice Presidents are also responsible for finding
new clients and servicing existing clients. VPs
however spend more time managing Analysts
and Associates and in the pitch book creation
process
Associates manage analysts work and are
primarily responsible for financial models and
pitch book creation. In addition, they may be
involved in dealing with the MDs and going
over details of potential deals or discussing
numbers (commercial and financial DD)
Analysts perform all research and analysis,
build financial models and put together the
pitch book (deal coordination, commercial and
financial due diligence)
Corporate Finance & Advisory services, for which they receive fees
Equity Research, they make money from two sources, primarily from investors / readers of the reports and
secondly, from firms they are covering for which they are paid a set annual fee in cash; they do not accept any
form of equity, which may cause conflicts of interest
Conduct financial statement analysis and build financial models to derive a company's proper valuation
Investment banking activities tend to be more profitable than commercial banking activities; based on the fees rather
than interest rate differentials
Corporate Finance
Financings
Client Advisory
Includes:
Acquisitions
Private Company Sale
Public Company Sale
Corporate Restructuring
Corporate Divestitures
Joint-Ventures
Includes:
Initial Public Offerings (IPO)
Secondary Offerings
Debt Syndication
Equity Private Placements
Bankers generally generate business through pitching transaction ideas to clients. Pitch Books - presentations the
bankers use for their clients, contain general information and include a wide variety of selling points they make to
potential clients. Pitch books almost always include valuation and research analysis on a number of companies
and/or industries
Pitch books again can be categorized as follows:
General : Usually, general pitch books include an overview of the I-bank and detail its specific capabilities in
research, corporate finance, sales and trading, primarily used to showcase credentials.
Deal-specific. Deal-specific pitch books are highly customized and are prepared specifically for the transactions
that bankers are proposing to their clients
Product groups: The three most well known product groups are mergers and acquisitions (M&A), leveraged
finance and restructuring.
The products of an Investment Bank, are basically advisory for M&A, Financing, Restructuring, etc., hence a
Group covering any of the above activities would be a Product group
Bankers in Product groups have product knowledge and tend to execute transactions (respectively M&A
transactions, leveraged buyouts (LBOs) and restructuring transactions/bankruptcies).
For e.g. an M&A banker would be a specialist in deal structuring (equity or cash etc.), types of deal structures,
takeover codes (legalities, regulation) in a particular country etc .
Industry groups (also called sector groups or domains): Bankers in industry groups cover specific industries and
develop expertise in a particular sector. They tend to do more marketing activity (pitching).
Examples of common industry groups include FIG (Financial Institutions Group), Healthcare, Consumer/Retail,
Industrials, Natural Resources, TMT (Telecom, Media and Technology.. Often subgroups exist within the broader
group. For example, a Healthcare group may be segregated into biotechnology, medical devices, pharmaceuticals,
etc.
specializing in small or mid-sized deals & clients (generally less than $500 million)
Boutiques known for M&A, often compete with the bulge bracket banks for M&A transactions. A few examples
include Lazard, Greenhill, Evercore
Other boutiques offer many different products but specialize in one or more industries. Such boutiques often
compete with the bulge bracket banks on the basis of their industry knowledge and expertise. A few examples
include Cowen & Co. (healthcare), Allen & Co. (media) and Thomas Weisel Partners (technology), Avendus
(technology in India)
The third type of boutique, those that offer many products and cover many industries but compete only for middle
market or smaller deals include Jefferies & Co., Piper Jaffray, Raymond James. Many of these middle market
boutiques are regionally focused.
Some of the Indian boutiques are Equirus, O3, Edelweiss, Mape Advisory, Pears Capital , Numinous Consulting,
Viedea Capital
10
425,164
346,039
330,835
327,179
299,167
265,094
242,883
236,383
231,960
188,637
127,830
98,194
87,404
79,257
78,350
72,904
70,551
61,464
54,777
51,225
50,161
48,909
44,578
43,279
41,921
1,952.8
1,421.7
1,400.3
1,046.4
729.4
715.6
831.5
906.6
850.9
845.0
746.5
212.0
320.6
209.4
300.1
354.3
202.3
349.6
169.6
344.0
153.2
Number of Deals
325
331
280
249
185
133
224
204
230
259
245
79
171
35
110
114
47
167
41
47
13
133
327
121
59
Transaction Volumes
Completed Deals Worldwide: Annual Transaction Volume
Date Effective/Unconditional
Number of Deals
2008
2009
2010
2011
1,924,659
1,848,453
1,893,852
824,484
24,890
30,431
32,114
8,762
Industry Total
6,491,448
96,197
CLIENT
MARKETING
RESEARCH
& ANALYSIS
Investment Banks
DEAL
EXECUTION
KPOs
13
Copal Partners
Valuation Methodologies
14
Valuation Methodologies
A. Fundamental Valuation:
Appropriate for comparing investments across different asset classes (stocks vs. bond vs. real estate,
etc).
B. Relative Valuation:
Comparable company analysis and comparable transaction analysis are relative valuation methods
Can not compare value across different asset classes (stocks vs. bond vs. real estate, etc).
Can not answer the question is the stock market over valued?
Can answer the question, I want to buy a tech stock, which one should I buy?
Can answer the question, Which one of these overpriced IPOs is the best buy?
15
Fundamental analysis is a technique that attempts to determine a securitys value by focusing on underlying
factors that affect a company's actual business and its future prospects.
On a broader scope, one can perform fundamental analysis on industries or the economy as a whole. The term
simply refers to the analysis of the economic well-being of a financial entity as opposed to only its price
movements.
The various fundamental factors can be grouped into two categories: quantitative and qualitative.
Qualitative related to or based on the quality or character of something, often as opposed to its size or
quantity.
16
Relative valuation answers the question How does the value of an asset compare with the values assessed by
the market for similar or comparable assets
Absolute values of comparable assets are standardized for the purpose of comparison. Friendly The Board
recommends the offer
How would you compare a pencil priced at Rs.10 with another pencil priced at Rs. 20?
Standardized values values with a common numerator are called price multiples
Comparing the price multiples of comparable assets can give an indication of whether an asset is under or over
valued.
If Rs.10 pencil lasts 10 days and Rs. 20 pencil lasts 16 days, is Rs. 10 pencil over or under valued compared
to the Rs. 20 pencil?
Everything else being equal, which one would you buy?
17
Copal Partners
Valuation Techniques
18
Valuation Overview
Valuation is the process of determining the current worth of an asset. Valuation answers the question How much
will it cost to acquire the asset?
What is the underlying value of the business against which debt is being issued?
Thus, Investment banks perform valuation on firms, or parts of firms for several reasons:
Contribution into a Join Venture or Mergers & Acquisitions (Buy side or sell side engagements)
Valuations are not scientific. It is highly dependent on a strong set of assumptions and inputs. A valuation is only
as good as the quality of inputs. Analyst look at a variety of valuation methods to quantify value.
19
Valuation Techniques
There are three primary methods of valuing a company:
Comparable Company Analysis (Trading Comps) Trading Comps analyze key valuation ratios of comparable
companies that are trading in the market to give an indication of what fair value is and compares firms financial
performance to its market value.
Comparable Transactions Analysis (Transaction Comps) Transaction Comps analyze value based on
historical takeout multiples of comparable targets to give an indication of what one would have to pay to acquire
the company. It also includes control premium.
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Discounted cash flow analysis is based on cash flow generation potential of
business. It uses projected cash flows in the future to determine the value of company at the present time. It
involves discounting levered / unlevered cash flows by equity cost of capital or weighted average cost of capital.
20
Copal Partners
21
Index
Table of Content
Overview
23
Key Definitions
24
Source of Information
29
31
32
Market Capitalization
41
Balance Sheet
47
Enterprise Value
58
Income Statement
61
74
Understanding Multiples
78
22
Overview
Comparable Company Analysis (comps) is the most basic and effective valuation tool used by investment
bankers for the analysis of publicly listed companies across various industries.
This technique is used in private market valuation, IPO valuation, comparative analyses, identifying potential
targets for M&A etc
Comps establishes value of a company and measures its performance vis--vis the operating and trading
statistics of the companys peer group (comparable companies)
Valuation metrics and financial ratios used/ analyzed vary from project to project, depending on the industry and
information available
Share price performance parameters such as current & 52 week high/low share price, margin and long term
growth rate
These inputs define the output Multiple sheet (the comps) containing various Enterprise Value (EV) multiples.
Common valuation multiples used are EV/Sales, EV/EBITDA, EV/EBIT, P/E, P/B
Since the comps provide multiples prevailing at a given point of time, they provide a static view of comparable
companies and can change over a period of time depending on the companys financial performance and market
performance (stock performance)
23
Key Definitions
Warrants
A derivative security or certificate that gives the holder/ bearer the right to
purchase securities (usually equity) from the issuer at a specific price within a
certain time frame
Convertibles
Market capitalization
Stock Options
24
Represents the number of shares that would result if all stock options,
warrants and convertible debts were traded in for stock.
The purpose of the Treasury method is to account for the cash generated by the
exercise of options and/or warrants
Treasury stock method assumes that the options and/or warrants are exercised
at the beginning of the year (or issue date if later) and such proceeds are used
to repurchase outstanding shares of common stock
Example
Current share price
$ 50
Shares outstanding
Options/ warrants outstanding
Exercise price
Proceeds from conversion of in the money options
400 mn
10 mn
$ 25
10 x $ 25 = $ 250mn
$ 250 / $ 50 = 5 mn
400 + 10 5 = 405 mn
25
Includes all interest bearing obligations both long-term and short-term such
as loans, credit facilities etc
Minority Interest
Preferred equity
Capital lease
A lease that transfers substantially all risks and rewards of ownership to the
lessee
Total debt
26
470 mn
Current price
$30.00
Options o/s
10 mn
Exercise price
$20.00
Exercise price
$40.00
Warrants o/s 5 mn
a) 470 mn
b) 485 mn
c) 473.3 mn
d) 471.6 mn
27
$30.00
$20.00
Since, the exercise price of options is less than the current stock price, the options are In the money
However, the exercise price of warrants is more than the current stock price, the warrants are Out of the money
Dilution effect of Options can be calculated as:
Amount raised from exercise of options
Shares bought back at current market price = Amount raised from exercise of options / Current stock price
= 200 / 30 = 6.67 mn shares
Dilution effect of Options
28
(i) Always use most recent filings for EV calculation as we are looking for the current and most
recent financial position of the company
(ii) Always use the pro-forma financials in case the company has completed a major acquisition or
divestiture
(iii) Where the company has made restatements and filed restated financials, always use such
restated financials.
29
Stock exchange is a very important source and provides lot of useful information such as latest shares
outstanding, latest financials filed by the Companies, recent press releases or announcements.
Apart from Company Website and Stock Exchange, bankers also use various databases for their cross
references such as:
Bloomberg
FactSet
Thomson Reuters
Capital IQ
Merger Market
Factiva
Hoovers
One Source
DataStream
Note:
There are many more databases apart from the names mentioned above used by companies for
their analysis. Since these are all paid data sources, companies subscribe them according to their
work requirement.
30
Peer Group Analysis means identifying a list of comparable companies for valuation.
The following criteria should be borne while doing the preliminary search for selecting the companies to form a
peer set:
Similar Industry, featuring into the same sub-sector, having product categories which are related
Same size of companies, can be identified with similar operating margins, growth rate, cash flow, number of
employees etc
Should not be undergoing any unusual or major strategic changes, such as an M&A, divestiture
There are various sources available for Peer Analysis such as Thomson One Banker, Bloomberg, Reuters,
OneSource, Research Report, Google Finance, Company Websites (for Description), broker reports etc.
31
Number of shares should exclude the treasury shares or own shares. Treasury shares are shares repurchased by
the company and do not have the right to dividends, have no voting rights, and should not be included in shares
outstanding calculations.
In case of companies filing with SEC, outstanding shares can generally be found on the cover page of the 10K,
10Q, 20F report. In case of Non US companies search out for filings on various sources including Company
Website, Latest Filings and Stock Exchanges of the respective country.
Where a Company has more than one class of share, with all classes being listed, input the total of all classes of
shares in shares outstanding and calculate weighted average share price
In case, one class of share is listed and the other class of shares are unlisted, input the total of listed and unlisted
shares in shares outstanding and assume the share price of unlisted shares to be equal to that of listed shares
32
33
Details
Par Value
Market price
200 mn
$10.00
$500.00
10 mn
$100.00
Unlisted
a. $ 100,000 mn
b. $ 100,500 mn
c. $ 105,000 mn
d. $ 150,000 mn
The market cap in this case is $150,000 mn
Market Cap for Class A shares = 200 X 500 = $100, 000 mn
Since Class B shares are unlisted, we will calculate the price of class B shares as follows:
Price of Class A shares / Par value of Class A shares X Par value of Class B shares
$500.00 / $10 X $100 = $5,000.00
Market Cap for Class B Shares = 10 X 5,000 = $50,000 mn
Market Cap for the Company = $100,000 + $50,000 = $150,000 mn
34
Particulars
Date Details
Shares O/S
31-Dec-10
350 mn
Stock split
30-Jun-10
2:1
Share buyback
15-Mar-11
10 mn
Stock dividend
20-Feb-11
2:1
= 350 X 2/1
= 700 mn
a) 1,040 mn
b) 1,360 mn
c) 690 mn
d) 1,380 mn
35
Input information on Options (and Warrants) from latest financials. 10K or annual filings are usually the best
source
Notes to the financials should provide detailed information on total number of Options & warrants outstanding,
traunche-wise details and the weighted average strike price on them. Ensure that the equivalent number of
shares and not number of options or warrants are entered
Input the Options Outstanding and weighted average exercise price of such outstanding options and NOT the
Options Exercisable
Depending on the space available in the template, input options/ warrants outstanding and weighted average
exercise price tranche-wise or in aggregate.
In case options/warrants have a range of exercise price, take the average or lower of the range for maximum
dilution effect.
Read Management Discussion & Analysis and Notes to Financial statements closely and ensure all option plans/
warrants are incorporated
36
37
Input information on Convertible debt (value) from latest financials. Latest financials should provide price of
Conversion or at least the conversion ratio from where the conversion price can be deduced. If not, revert to the
previous annual report for conversion price
If convertible price of the convertible debt is not given, read the relevant notes and MD&A to figure out the
conversion ratio i.e. the number of shares into which the debt will be converted. Only in the money debt are
considered for weighted average exercise price of the convertible debt
While convertible debt is in the money, it will be treated as equity, once it falls out of the money it will be added
back to debt
Depending on the space available in the template, input convertible debt and conversion price tranche-wise or in
aggregate.
38
$ 50
$ 200 mn
$ 40
200/ 40 = 50 shares
$ 50
Example 7
39
16
$ 1000/ 16 = $ 62.5
When the convertible debt is converted into equity shares, the liability for the debt is eliminated and the number of
common equity shares is increased
40
Market Capitalization
Dual Listing
When a security is registered for trading on more than one exchange. The treatment of dual listed companies
depends upon the specifications of the end user . However, the two common treatments of dual listed companies are
as follows:
Treatment 1 : In certain cases, weighted average market capitalization is calculated by adding the product of
share prices prevailing on both the exchanges & shares outstanding for respective classes of shares
Treatment 2 : Output for both the classes of securities is shown separately. Market Capitalization is calculated
using the share price on each exchange. For example, in case of Chinese companies which are also listed on
Hong Kong stock exchange, will have inflated prices on Chinese stock exchange, so it is better to analyze them
using both the classes of shares separately.
Market Cap, EV and multiples for different class of shares are calculated as:
Market Capitalization: Market Capitalization to be calculated for both class of shares using share outstanding for
each class and their respective share price
Net Debt : Bifurcate total net debt into two classes of shares based on proportion of market cap
Enterprise Value: Calculate EV (Market cap + Net debt for respective class) and EV per share for each class
Multiples: Calculate per share value of relevant financial metrics (Revenue, EBIT, EBITDA, EPS)
Calculate multiples for each class separately using EV per share for each class and per share financials as
calculated
41
Class A
CNY 50.00
16,500 mn
0.8955
As at 31 Mar 11
Net Debt
Minority Interest
LTM Revenue
LTM EBIT
LTM EBITDA
LTM EPS
CNY 4,250 mn
CNY 20,500 mn
CNY 82,000 mn
CNY 33,000 mn
CNY 41,500 mn
CNY 1.04
42
Class H
HKD 35.00
3,400 mn
Class H
HKD 35.00
3,400 mn
HKD 11,9000 mn
CNY 106,565 mn (approx.)
11.44%
CNY 486.1 mn
CNY 2,345.1 mn
CNY 109,396 mn (approx.)
CNY 32.18
Multiples
Class A
Class H
Revenue / share
CNY 4.12
Revenue
12.46x
7.81x
CNY 1.66
EBIT
30.95x
19.40x
CNY 2.09
EBITDA
24.61x
15.43x
LTM EPS
CNY 1.04
P/E
48.08x
30.14x
43
44
250 mn
$20.00
25 mn shares
On 25 Mar 2011
10 mn ADR
On 30 Mar 2011, company announced bonus issue of 1 share for every 4 shares held.
1 ADR represents 4 ordinary shares of the company
Calculate the Market cap of company as on 25 Apr 2011
a)
$ 1,968.8 mn
b)
$ 5,700 mn
c)
$ 6,300 mn
d)
$7,875 mn
45
= 250 mn
= 25 mn
= 10 mn
= 10 X 4
= 40 mn
= 315 mn
= 315*1.25
= 393.8 mn
= $20.00
= 393.8 X 20 / 4
= $ 1,968.8 mn
46
Balance Sheet
Balance Sheet Information - Source data in this section from the latest financials
Cash and Cash Equivalents
47
Debt includes all interest bearing liabilities (long term and short term) of the Company i.e. obligations that have a
financing cost to the company (such as Bank overdrafts / Current portion of long term borrowings / short term and
long term loans / Convertible debts)
Consider Capital lease obligation ONLY if it is stated in the Balance Sheet. Do not confuse capital lease
obligations with the operating lease obligations. The latter is an expense item in the income statement
Read the MD&A and Notes to financial statements closely as sometimes Minority Interest is not represented in
the Balance Sheet as a separate item but is given in the Other Liabilities
Include pension liabilities (deficit) in debt, only if specific guidelines have been given to that effect. Pension deficit
is the value of all pension obligations minus the market value of any pension assets
In case of a US Company: US GAAP has the requirement for the company to give a separate note for Pension
assets and pension liabilities. Pension deficit is = Pension Liabilities Less Pension Assets
For a company in UK: FRS 17 gives the accounting policy for a separate disclosure of pension deficit
For other companies: Read the MD&A and Notes to financial statements and determine accordingly
Always consider Net Pension Liability recognized in the balance sheet or Unfunded or Deficit in Pension Fund.
In case company reports surplus ie Pension Assets are more than Liabilities, ignore it.
Remember to exclude in-the-money convertible debt and include out of money convertible debt in total debt
48
Shareholders equity
Input from the latest financials the book value of shareholders equity or stockholders equity.
Read the note for Long term investment and check whether company has invested in private unquoted company
or in Quoted/ Listed/ Traded company or in mutual funds or government stocks.
Consider the long term investment in public company, mutual funds and government stocks as their market value
can be assessed easily. Ignore any invest done in private or unquoted company.
Remember for the ultimate effect, long term investment is treated as a part of cash and cash equivalents and gets
excluded from EV.
Equity Investments
Includes Investment in Affiliates / Subsidiaries / Joint Ventures / Associated Company / Equity Affiliates
Mostly Company reports equity investments as a separate line item in their balance sheet.
Consider all equity investments irrespective of short term or long term or quoted or unquoted.
Remember for the ultimate effect, long term investment is treated as a part of cash and cash equivalents and gets
excluded from EV.
50
Check the note for Non Current Investment Long Term and consider only the portion invested in Quoted/ Listed/
Traded company or in mutual funds or government stocks.
51
Increase the number of equivalent shares on conversion of options and reduce (in the same ratio) the exercise
price
Equity issue : In case a company makes a fresh additional equity issue, the following adjustments have to be made:
Increase the number of shares outstanding by the fresh number of shares issued
Stock Buyback : When a company repurchases the shares it had previously issued, it is called a Stock buyback.
This reduces the number of shares outstanding in the market. Adjustments to be effected include:
Add the Net proceeds to Cash. Net Proceeds means proceeds received, net of any discount and expenses of
issue.
Deduct the Net outflow from Cash. Net Outflow means net outflow of cash including discount or premium on
redemption
Deduct the face/ book value of the debt from the Total debt outstanding before such redemption
Rights Issue: If the company decides to issue additional shares (equity) as a source of raising additional capital, it
may be obliged to first offer such shares (or rights) to the existing shareholders. In effect , the number of shares
outstanding increases. Adjustments similar to equity issue.
Bonus Issue: In the case of a bonus issue, equity shares are issued to existing shareholders for no additional
consideration. It is also called a capitalization issue. There is no effect on shareholders equity. Adjustments are to be
made to outstanding shares, options/ warrants and corresponding exercise prices with respect to bonus factor.
Stock Dividend: A dividend is the distribution of profits to a company's shareholders. Such distribution can be in the
form of cash or issue of stock ( i.e. Stock Dividend). In the case of stock dividend additional shares are issued to
existing shareholders without any receipt of cash from them. There is no effect on shareholders equity. Adjustments
are to be made to outstanding shares, options/ warrants and corresponding exercise prices
53
A company announced a two for one stock split and a stock dividend of 25% on 10 May 2011 ( i.e. after
the release of results for Q1 Mar 2011):
465.52 mn
$12.00
25 mn shares
On 12 May 2011
55 mn shares
54
= 465.52 mn
= 25.00 mn
= 440.52 mn
= 440.52*2
= 881.04 mn
= 881.04*1.25
= 1,101.30 mn
= 55 mn
= 1,046.30 mn
$ 12.00
Market Cap
$12,555.6 mn
55
$ 50mn
$ 200mn
56
Particulars
Balance as on 31
Dec 10
Cash
Short term
debt
Long Term
Debt
Total Debt
150
50
200
250
5 Mar 11
Issue of debentures
91
100
100
15 Mar 11
Redemption of senior
notes
(20)
(20)
(20)
18 Mar 11
Conversion of
convertible debt
(25)
(25)
221
30
275
305
Adjusted
balance
57
Enterprise Value
Formula to calculate Enterprise Value
Total Enterprise Value (TEV or EV) is the term bankers use when they
refer to the total value of a company (also referred to as Aggregate
Value)
Market Capitalization
+
Total Debt
+
Minority Interest
+
Preferred Stock
+
Capital Leases
Generally for public companies TEV = market value of the equity + total
debt (short and long term) + minority interest + preferred stock + capital
leases cash and cash equivalents
=
Enterprise Value or
EV
58
reflects the actual purchase price anyone acquiring the company would have to pay
many investors use the current value of all of a company's outstanding shares or market capitalization, as a
proxy for its economic value
59
Enterprise Value
Example 1. What is the Market Cap & EV for the company:
B/S as on 31 Dec 2010 (in CNY mn):
Cash
Debt
Minority Interest
Current exchange rate for HK$ to CNY is 1.1
200
175
50
5.00
60
5.00
5,000
Income Statement
Income Statement Information
Revenue/ Net Sales: Income from sales of goods and services, minus the cost associated with elements such as
returned or undeliverable merchandise, discounts, and allowances. Also called sales revenue, net sales, net
revenue, and sales
Other revenues: The total revenues which the company has earned may include other revenues incidental to
business. These are revenues derived from activities not directly related to the operations of the Company and
therefore should not be included in turnover. For instance, Rental income should not be included in turnover.
However, revenues of real estate companies will primarily consist of rental income. Therefore, identify the
Companys business and decide the composition of revenues accordingly
EBITDA: EBITDA means earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. It is an indicator of the
cash earnings that a company generates from its on going and recurrent operations regardless of its capital
structure. EBITDA can be used to analyze the profitability between companies and industries, because it
eliminates the effects of financing and accounting decisions. (EBITDA is often used as an indicator of unlevered
cash flow in case of scarce information).
EBIT: EBIT means earnings before interest and taxes. It measures the income that a company generates from its
on going and recurrent operations. Also called Operating Income or Income from Operations
Net Income: Net Income represents total earnings available to common shareholders. Net Income is derived by
subtracting all costs of doing business, depreciation, interest and taxes from revenues. Share of minorities for the
period and preferred stock dividends, must also be deducted to arrive at Net Income.
61
Normalization refers to the process of adjusting/ removing the effect of extraordinary and one-time items from
components of Income Statement (revenues, EBITDA, EBITA, EBIT & Net Income)
For the purpose of Comps, companies have to be evaluated and compared on basis of trading / valuation metrics
and thereby it is imperative that any exceptional and non-recurring items impacting the operating results of a
company be removed and cleaned, so as to make its results comparable within its peer group
Some examples of exceptional / non-recurring items include restructuring charges, impairment, gain on sale of
fixed assets, income from divested business etc
Always read through the Notes to Financial Statements and MD&A closely to identify extraordinary items.
Details of exceptional items are generally found in the Notes to financial statements and MD&A
For adjusted net income, make appropriate tax adjustments for the tax impact of such extraordinary items. Read
the MD&A closely for actual tax impact of exceptionals, if available. If not, use the marginal tax rate for making tax
adjustments. Marginal Tax rate should be effective or statutory tax rate.
62
63
64
65
66
67
= $ 374.582 mn
68
Pro-forma Financials
Pro-forma financials means restated financials of the company adjusted to give effect to any corporate actions so
as to reflect the continuing financials position of the company going forward
Acquisitions
Mergers
Divestitures
Spin offs
Capital Restructuring
69
Table 1
FY10A
FY11E
FY12E
Revenues
1400
3000
3500
EBITDA
750
2300
2450
EBIT
600
2050
2180
FY10A
FY11E
FY12E
Revenues
1400
550
610
EBITDA
750
350
390
EBIT
600
310
380
Table 2
70
71
Question.
On 15 Dec 10, ABC Ltd announced the acquisition of XYZ plc. The acquisition was completed on 12 February 2011.
Now, in case ABC does not release proforma financials adjusted for the acquisition of XYZ for its Fiscal year ended 31
Dec 10, then we may calculate the proforma financials of the combined entity by adding the financials of ABC and XYZ
for the fiscal year ended 31 Dec 10
72
Line item
Joint Venture
Discontinued operations
Restructuring cost / expenses
Expenses related to merger and acquisition transactions
Write down / Impairment of assets (both tangibles and intangibles
including goodwill)
Impairment of leasehold expenses
Loss / Gain on sale of tangible & intangible assets
Loss / Gain on sale of investments, other than marketable
Amortization of deferred compensation
Equity based compensation expense- stock options or warrants
Writing back of any provisions or reserves
Gain/Loss on sale of marketable securities
Income from associates / affiliates
Litigation settlement
Loss / Gain on sale or termination of an operation
Foreign currency exchange gain / loss
Accounting changes
Tax benefit from exercise of options
Provision for doubtful accounts
Amortization of debt issuance costs
Expenses associated with the Sarbanes Oxley Act
Rental income
Government grants or subsidies
Severance costs
Facilities consolidation
Gain / Loss on early extinguishment of debt
Early retirement costs
Redundancy costs
Donations
Amortization of Negative goodwill
Add Back
Y
Y
Y
Y
Tax adjustment
Comment
Y
Different treatment for different purposes
Y
No tax adjustment if net of tax
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y/N
Y
Y
Y/N
N
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y/N
Y
N
Y
Y
N
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
N
N
Y
Y
N
Y
Y
Y
Y
Restructuring expense
Y
Y
N
Item can be treated as exceptional or normal depending upon the industry and analysis
73
LTM Results
Q1
Q2
Reported
previous year
accumulated 6
month results
LTM =
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Reported
accumulated
current year 6
month results
74
1,200
Dec 10
1,300
Mar 11
850
Mar 10
900
b)1,300
c) 1,250
a) 1,200
Dec 11E
1,400
d) 1,350
= 1300 mn
= 850 mn
= 900 mn
75
Valuation multiple can be calculated on both a latest twelve months (LTM) and a forecasted basis. Companies
trade most typically off expected future performance (analysts estimates)
Earnings estimates are obtained from various broker research reports or databases such as Bloomberg, Capital
IQ, Factset estimates. Adjust the earnings estimates for any exceptionals
For the purpose of deriving trading multiples, estimates are determined on a calendar year basis. This is done to
ensure consistency and enhance comparability within comps
In case of companies with fiscal year end other than December, the forecasted estimates are calendarized.
Calendarization is the process of prorating estimates that are available on fiscal year basis, to derive estimates on
a calendar year basis.
30 September
$ 1,200 mn
$ 1,440 mn
Average exchange rate for income statement figures for the relevant fiscal years
Example: If the fiscal year of a company ends in September 2010 (Local currency being USD and Desired
currency being EUR) the exchange rate to be used will be USD - EUR average conversion rate from 1st
October 2009 to 30th September 2010
77
Understanding Multiples
Multiples are ratios with equity value (Price) or enterprise value (EV) in the numerator and a standardizing factor
(Earnings, Sales, Book Value, etc.) in the denominator.
Price/Earnings (PE) and variants (PEG and Relative PE)
EV/EBIT
EV/EBITDA
EV/Cash Flow
EV/ Book Value of Assets
EV/Sales
P / Book value
Both the value (the numerator) and the standardizing factor ( the denominator) in multiples represent the same
claimholders in the firm
For instance, value of equity is standardized with equity earnings, and enterprise value (value of entire firm) is
standardized with EBITDA or book value of assets
For multiples to make sense, the standardizing factor (earnings, EBITDA, etc) must be computed using same
accounting rules across all firms being compared
78
Multiples Example 1
Example 1. Please calculate Sales, EBITDA, EBIT and P/E multiple:
(all figures in US$ mn except share price)
Share Price20.00
Market Cap10,000
Debt
250
Cash
400
Minority Interest
100
Multiples:
Sales
2,500
EBIT
800
D&A
200
EPS
0.75
Using Multiples
In order to use a multiple effectively to pass judgment on valuation of a firm:
Understand the fundamentals (growth, risk, profit margin, etc. ) that drive the multiple, and the nature of the
relationship between the multiple and each fundamental variable
These relationships explain the variations in multiple across firms
The relationship between a fundamental (like growth) and a multiple (such as PE) is seldom linear. For
example, if firm A has twice the growth rate of firm B, it will generally not trade at twice its PE ratio
It is impossible to properly compare firms on a multiple, if we do not know the nature of the relationship
between fundamentals and the multiple
80
There are a number of variants on the basic PE ratio, based upon how the price and the earnings are defined
81
Multiples Example 2
Example 2. Calculate the Basic P/E, Diluted P/E, adjusted Basic P/E & adjusted Diluted P/E multiple with the
following information:
(all figures in US$ mn except share data)
Share price $10.00
Shares outstanding
1,000
5,000
Restructuring charges
1,000
500
300
1,500
Interest Expenses
500
500
83
PE Fundamentals
To understand the fundamentals, start with a basic equity discounted cash flow model
Dividend discount model for equity price
P0 =
DPS1
rg
Where, DPS1 is dividends per share next year, r is equity risk, and g is perpetual growth rate
84
While Price earnings ratios look at the market value of equity relative to earnings to equity investors, Enterprise
Value ratios look at total value of the firm relative to total operating earnings or free cash flows
The form of value to cash flow ratios that has the closest parallels in DCF valuation is the value to Free Cash
Flow to the Firm, which is defined as:
EV/FCFF
EV = Market Value of Equity + Market Value of Debt - Cash
FCFF = EBIT (1-t) - (Cap Ex - Depreciation) - Chg in Working Cap
85
Multiples Example 3
Example 3. What is the EV/EBITDA, EV/EBIT and EV/FCFF for the company:
(all figures in US$ mn)
Share Data
Income Statement
Share Price
$5.00
Revenue
Shares outstanding
1,000
COGS
270
SG&A
200
Balance Sheet
1,000
Cash
200
R&D
50
Debt
175
Restructuring expenses
30
Minority Interest
50
EBIT
Tax rate
450
30.0%
50
Amortization of intangibles
50
Capex
100
(75)
Adjusted EBIT
Adjusted EBIT
= 450 + 30 = $ 480 mn
Adjusted EBITDA
Adjusted EBITDA
= 480 + 50 + 50 = $ 580 mn
FCFF
FCFF
EV/FCFF
EV Ratio Alternatives
Most analysts find FCFF to complex or messy to use in multiples (partly because capital expenditures and
working capital have to be estimated) They use modified versions of the multiple with the following alternative
denominators such as EBIT or EBITDA
EBIT: pre-tax operating income
EBITDA: earning before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization
Assume that you have computed the value of a firm, using discounted cash flow models. Rank the following
multiples in the order of magnitude from lowest to highest?
EV/EBIT
EV/EBITDA
EV/FCFF
88
It can be computed even for firms that are reporting net losses, since earnings before interest, taxes and
depreciation are usually positive
For firms in certain industries, such as cellular, which require a substantial investment in infrastructure and long
gestation periods, this multiple seems to be more appropriate than the price/earnings ratio
In leveraged buyouts, where the key factor is cash generated by the firm prior to all discretionary expenditures,
the EBITDA is the measure of cash flows from operations that can be used to support debt payment at least in
the short term
By looking at cash flows prior to capital expenditures, it may provide a better estimate of optimal value,
especially if the capital expenditures are unwise or earn substandard returns.
By looking at the value of the firm and cash flows to the firm it allows for comparisons across firms with different
financial leverage.
89
Price/Book Value: ratio of market value of equity to the book value of equity, i.e., the measure of shareholders
equity in the balance sheet
If the market value of equity refers to the market value of equity of common stock outstanding, the book value
of common equity should be used in the denominator
If there is more than one class of common stock outstanding, the market values of all classes (even the nontraded classes) needs to be factored in.
EV/Book Value: ratio of sum of market value of equity and market value of debt to sum of book value of equity
and book value of debt
90
There are dozens of multiples that can be potentially used to value an individual firm. In addition, relative
valuation can be relative to a sector (or comparable firms) or to the entire market (using the regressions, for
instance). However, since there can be only one final estimate of value, there are three options:
Use a simple average of the valuations obtained using a number of different multiples
Use a weighted average of the valuations obtained using a number of different multiples
Choose one of the multiples and base your valuation on that multiple
The best approach is to choose a set of relevant multiples that make most sense for that industry or sector, given
how value is measured and created
91
Sector Multiples
Sector
Multiple Used
Rationale
Cyclical Manufacturing
EV/Sales, Price/Sales
Heavy infrastructure
EV/EBITDA
Financial Services
Price/Book Value, PE
Retailing
Price/Sales, EV/Sales
92
Things to check
Numbers across the years are in line, both historicals and forecast
93
Obvious errors
94
Copal Partners
95
Index
Table of Content
Introduction
97
Transactions Overview
98
99
Transaction Value
100
Type of Consideration
101
107
109
Premium Analysis
110
111
96
Introduction
Transaction Comps is a valuation tool to look at the precedent transactions in a specific sector
Precedent transaction comps is the analysis of M&A Deals which have already taken place in past.
It involves valuing the target company based on relative prices (or multiples) paid for similar business in the past
The financial ratios and values analyzed vary from project to project, depending on the industry and information
available
Transaction overview (Announcement and closing date, Target name, Acquirer name)
These inputs define the output Multiple sheet containing various Enterprise Value (EV) multiples
Unlike trading comps, precedent transactions multiple contain an element of control premium paid by the acquirer
to gain control over target company
97
Transaction overview
Announcement Date
This is the day the transaction is announced by the company. The source should be the official company press
release/ stock exchange announcements/ Merger documents etc
The date on which company revises its original offer. The source should be the official company press release/
Merger documents etc. In case of any amendment in deal, always new offer is considered for analysis.
Target Name
Acquirer
Date Completed
Date the company announced that the transaction was successfully closed
Source should be acquirer's/ sellers/ targets press release or filings after the date of close of the deal
* Note: Terminated deals are generally excluded from analysis, unless specifically required
98
M&A Deal Run means identifying a list of comparable precedent (which have already been done in past)
transactions in specific sector or industry for valuation or acquisition purposes. For Deal Run all targets should
belong to same industry.
Specify Region / Country target companies should belong to. For e.g. searching out deals in Beverages Industry
on Global level or restricting search to Asia Pacific region or may be Europe only.
Other criterions can be considering a set Deal Value range. Such as deals should have Deal Value ranging from
US$100 mn to US$1,500 mn for a particular time period such as last 5 years.
There are various sources available for extracting Deal Run such as Thomson One Banker, Bloomberg.
After doing the preliminary search like understanding industry or the product for which past deals are required,
check various sources mentioned above for M&A Deal Run by doing industry specific or company specific search
and extract list of comparable past deals for transaction comps valuation.
99
Transaction Value
Offer Value is similar to Equity Value
- also called Total Equity Purchase Price
Offer Value =
(Total Shares Outstanding* x Purchase Price per Share)
Transaction Value =
Offer Value + Total Debt* + Pref. Stock + Minority Interest Cash & Equiv.
*Total Debt excludes convertible securities that are assumed to convert into common shares (do not double count)
100
Types of Consideration
Consideration can be paid to the Target as:
Combination of cash and stock consideration (either lump-sum or per share stock and cash)
*There may be other forms of consideration like issue of loan notes or other debt instruments by the acquirer or asset swaps
101
No!!!!!
* Milestone payments are contingent considerations, so they are generally not considered as part of Equity Value
102
Example 3.
Calculate the Equity Value in this case??
Equity Value =
Navteq shares outstanding = 98.8 mn
+ Dilution impact of options = 4.54 mn
Total Diluted shares outstanding =103.34 mn
Offer price per share = $78.00
Equity value = $ 103.74 * 78 = $8,060 mn
Other Information
Navteq shares outstanding as on October 1, 2007= 98.8 mn
Dilution impact of options = 4.54 mn shares
104
Other information:
Reuters shares o/s as on May 4, 2007
1,256.56 mn
16.05 mn shares
CAD 48.46
2.19795
Equity value = (Reuters Shares o/s + Dilution Impact of Options) X (Thomson Share price one day prior to
announcement X Exchange Ratio + Cash per share)
= (1,256.56+16.05)*((48.46/2.19795*0.16)+3.525)
Equity value = GBP 8,975 mn
106
We can divide transaction comps in three sections viz basic transaction data, deal consideration and financial
multiples.
Transaction comps look out for the status of target company as on the Date of Announcement i.e. what was the
EV and other relevant multiples as on that date.
For Multiple calculations, please cross check the financials or filings to be used.
Multiples vary and depend from industry to industry for which analysis is being conducted.
For calculating financials, use the latest filings available just before the Date of Announcement. For example, if
DOA is 25 April 09, consider AR Dec 08 and IR Mar 09 filings. Also, please check whether calculating LFY or LTM
multiples. The former filings will be used for calculating LTM multiples. In case of LFY multiples use IR Mar 09 for
EV calculations and consider only AR for Income Statement.
In case of Amendment, consider the latest filings available as per the Date of Amendment and not the initial date.
For Examples DOA is 17 May 08, later on deal got revised on 21 July 08, consider AR Dec 07 and IR June 08 for
financials and not IR Mar 08.
Calculation and adjustments of EV and Income Statement Normalization is similar as it is done for Trading
Comps.
107
Offer Document
Press Releases
Offer Document
Brokers Reports
108
+ financial results for the accumulated current partial year result (stub period)
- financial results for the corresponding stub period (partial year) of the previous year (i.e. for the same period but
for the previous year)
Q1
Q2
Reported
previous year
accumulated 6
month results
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Reported
accumulated
current year 6
month results
109
Premium Analysis
Premium (%) = (Offer Price / Target Price) 1
Generally acquirer would offer to acquire the target a value more than its current trading price. The excess of offer
price over current trading price is the control premium for the target
Use unaffected stock price of target for calculating the premium i.e. prior to announcement of possible acquisition
Example 6.
On May 5, 2010, A announced to acquire B for a cash consideration of USD 15 per share. Bs share price as on May
4, 2010 was USD 12. Here premium paid by the acquiror is 25%
But in this case had there been some rumor in the market since February 5, 2010, and Bs share price as on
February 4, 2010 was USD 10, then premium should be 50%
Case 1. Premium = (Offer Price / Target Price on last trading day prior to announcement) 1
= ($15-$12)/$12 - 1
= 25%
Case 2. Premium = (Offer Price / Target Price on last trading day prior to rumor in public) 1
= ($15-$10)/$10 - 1
= 50%
110
In case deal terms gets amended after initial announcement, use final deal terms for valuation
Targets LTM financials will be taken with respect to date of announcement of final deal terms
Example:
On May 5, 2010, A announced to acquire B for a cash consideration of 0.5 A shares per B share. On July 6, 2010,
the consideration was increased to 0.55 A shares per B share and further increased to 0.60 A shares on October
6, 2010.
Share price as on relevant dates are as under:
A
May 4, 2010
$18
$7.50
July 5, 2010
$20
$8.00
October 5, 2010
$19
$11.00
(b) 52.0%
(c) 3.6%
111
(d) 44.0%
Copal Partners
DCF Valuation
112
Index
Table of Content
114
Cost of capital
127
137
Sensitivity Analysis
138
DCF-based valuation
139
Terminal Value
145
148
149
113
Cash flows
Perpetuities
Discount rate
Cost of Capital
Cost of Equity
CAPM
Cost of Debt
WACC
114
115
Alternatively, how much money deposited at 10% today will equal Rs. 3 Crore in 5 years?
Calculation:
X * (1 + 10%)5 = 3
3
X=
(1 + 10%)5
X = 1.86 Crore
Crore
The amount of Rs. 1.86 Crore is known as the Present Value of Rs. 3 Crore in 5 years
116
Present Value
It consists of an amount (in some currency), a date (or a point in time), and a sign (positive or negative)
In order to compare different cashflows, we convert all future cashflows to their present values
Use:
PVt =0 =
Ct =i
(1 + rt =i ) i
A simplification of PV formula
PVt =0 =
Ct = i
(1 + r ) i
117
What is the present value of US $100,000 received in year 10 if the discount rate (for ten-year horizons) is 12%
$100,000
Cash Flow Diagram:
PV = ??
PVt =0 =
Year 5
100,000
= 32,197.32
10
(1 + 12%)
118
Year 10
PV [$12,000; Yr 2; 8%] =
12,000
= $10288.0
(1 + 8%) 2
119
PV [$12,000; Yr 2; 10%] =
12,000
= $9917.3
(1 + 10%)2
120
What is the present value of $50,000 received in year 5 and $100,000 received in year 10 if the discount rate is
12%
$100,000
$50,000
Cash Flow Diagram:
PV = ??
Year 5
PV = PVt =0 (C1...CT ) =
t =1
PV =
Year 10
Ct
(1 + rt ) t
50,000
100,000
+
= 60568.67
(1 + 12%)5 (1 + 12%)10
121
Net present value combines the initial investment (usually made at time zero) and the PV of expected future cash
flows
T
NPV = C0 +
t =1
Ct
(1 + rt ) t
What is the NPV for the following set of cash flows (assume r = 8%)
NPV =
100 +
10
10
110
+
+
= 5.15
(1 + 8%) (1 + 8%) 2 (1 + 8%)3
122
Perpetuity
A perpetual stream of equal cash flows received at equal time intervals is known as a perpetuity
C
C
C
C
+
+
+ .....
1
2
3
(1 + r ) (1 + r ) (1 + r )
(1 + r )
C
=
Sum of infinite geometric series
r
PV =
Example 1: What is the PV of $10 received in perpetuity, starting in one year? Assume discount rate of 10%
PV = $10/0.1 = $100
123
Perpetuity (contd)
Example 2: What is the PV of $10 received in perpetuity, starting in 6 years? Assume discount rate of 10%
$10
Cash Flow Diagram:
$10
$10
PV = ??
$10
..
PVt =5 =
10
= 100
0.1
PV today (t=0):
PVt =0 =
PVt =5
100
=
= 62.09
5
5
(1 + r )
(1.1)
124
Growing Perpetuity
Example 3: What is the PV of a perpetual cash flow starting at $10 in Year 1 and growing at 5% each year
subsequently? Assume discount rate of 10%
C
C (1 + g ) C (1 + g ) 2
C (1 + g )
PV =
+
+
+ ...
(1 + r )1 (1 + r ) 2
(1 + r )3
(1 + r )
C
=
(r - g)
C = first cashflow
g = Growth rate of cashflows
r = discount rate
125
Discount Rate
Discount rate used for NPV calculations is the rate of return on the best alternate investment with comparable risk
It often comes from the return on a traded asset such as stocks, bonds, etc. with comparable risk.
Risk-less cash flows are discounted using the current rate for US government bonds or bills as they are
considered riskless
126
Cost of Capital
Investment examples include building a new plant, launching a new product, or acquiring another company
Cost of Capital is the required return necessary to make a capital investment worthwhile
Capital is provided as either debt or equity, hence Cost of capital includes Cost of Debt and Cost of Equity
The Cost of Capital determines the optimal way for the company to raise money (through a stock issue,
borrowing, or a mix of the two)
127
Cost of Equity
The cost of equity is the rate of return that investors require to make an equity investment in a firm
Dividend-growth model
Dividend growth model specifies the cost of equity to be the sum of the dividend yield and the expected growth in
earnings
Useful for mature companies that distribute most of the earnings to shareholders as dividends
Risk and return model, on the other hand, tries to answer two questions:
128
CAPM
CAPM or Capital Asset Pricing Model is a risk and return based model for computing expected return on equity
(Cost of Equity to the firm)
According to CAPM, expected return of a security or a portfolio equals the return on a risk-free security plus a risk
premium
Re = Rf + b (Rm- Rf)
Rf: Rate of return for a risk-free security
Beta b: measure of equity risk relative to market portfolio
Rm: Expected return on market portfolio (average risk investment)
Rm-Rf: Market risk premium
Example: Compute the expected return on IBM stock, given that risk-free rate is 4%, IBM beta is 1.4, and market
risk premium is 5.5%
Implies that in the long-term, investors expect to earn 11.70% return on IBM stock
129
CAPM Inputs
Usually the short-term US Govt. T-bill rate or the long-term US Govt. Security rate, since they have no default
risk
The choice between short-term rate and long-term rate depends on the investment horizon
Firm valuations are over a long-term horizon, so use long-term US Govt. Bond rate for firm valuation
130
Approach 1: Regress the historical return on equity (Re) with historical market portfolio return (Rm)
Regression output::
Re = a + b Rm
Where a is the intercept and b, the slope of regression, is the beta of stock and measures the riskiness of the
stock.
Take a weighted (by sales or operating income) average of these unlevered betas
131
Hence, Intel needs to make at least 11.98% as return for their equity investors. This is the hurdle rate for
projects, when investments are analyzed from an equity standpoint. In other words, Intels Cost of Equity is
11.98%
132
Cost of Debt is
the market rate of interest at which the company can borrow today
Caution: Cost of debt is not the interest rate at which the company obtained the old debt that it has on its books
If the firm has long-term bonds that are traded, use the current yield to maturity on firms bonds as the interest
rate in cost of debt calculation
If the firm is rated, use the rating and a typical default spread on bonds with that rating to estimate the interest
rate
If the firm has recently borrowed long-term from a bank, use the interest rate on the borrowing
If the firm is not rated and no other information about recent bank loans is available, use interest coverage
ratio (EBIT/Interest expense) of the firm to estimate a rating and use the default spread on bonds with that
rating to estimate interest rate
Quick (and dirty) computation of cost of debt: current interest expense/book value of total debt
NOTE: The cost of debt has to be estimated in the same currency as the cost of equity and the cash flows
133
Market Value of Debt is more difficult to estimate because few firms have only publicly traded debt. There are two
solutions:
134
A firms Cost of Capital is calculated by taking a weighted average of the firms cost of equity and cost of debt.
WACC represents the investors opportunity cost for investing in a particular business instead of others with a
similar risk.
WACC =
E
D
* Re + * Rd (1 Tc )
V
V
Re = cost of equity
Rd = cost of debt
E = market value of the firm's equity
D = market value of the firm's debt
V=E+D
E/V = percentage of financing that is equity
D/V = percentage of financing that is debt
Tc = corporate tax rate
WACC is used as the discount rate for all cash flows with risk that is similar to that of the overall firm
135
WACC =
E
D
* Re + * Rd (1 Tc )
V
V
150
50
*11.70% +
* 8%(1 35%)
200
200
= 10.08%
WACC[ IBM ] =
136
Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) is the cash flow that is generated by companys operations and available to all
the companys capital providers (investors), including both debt and equity
Computed as operating income less expenses, taxes, and changes in net working capital and investments
FCFF is also equal to the sum of CFs paid to or received from all the capital providers (interest, dividends, new
borrowing, debt repayments and so on)
FCFF = CF available to all investors = EBIT taxes increases in working capital +/- deferred taxes + D&A - Capex
Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE) is the portion of FCFF that is available to companys equity investors.
This is a measure of how much cash can be paid to the equity shareholders of the company after all expenses,
reinvestment and debt repayment
FCFE = CF available to equity investors only = Earnings after interest and taxes increases in working capital +/deferred taxes + D&A - Capex
137
Sensitivity Analysis
Sensitivity Analysis aim at showing the value impact if changing individual key assumptions or the main value
drivers. Following is an example of valuation sensitivity to assumptions regarding cost of capital and terminal
growth.
Sensitivity Table
There are many lot many other potential sensitivity variables. However, the focus on those factors which have the
greatest uncertainty or the greatest value impact.
138
DCF-based valuation analysis discounts projected (expected) cash flows of a firm with an appropriate discount
rate to determine firms value in present time
Discount Rate
Cost of Equity
Cost of Capital (WACC)
139
There are two approaches to valuation: A firm can be valued from two different perspectives
Firm valuation (Enterprise Value or Transaction Value) represents the value of all capital invested in business
EV = Equity Value + Net Debt
Equity valuation (Market Value or Offer Value) Value attributable to owners of the company after paying debt.
Debt (D)
Assets
(A)
Claim holders
Equity (E)
A = D+E
Equity valuation values just the equity claim in
business i.e. value of a company to shareholders
140
t =n
ValueEquity =
t =1
t =n
141
ValueFirm =
t =1
FCFEt
(1 + Re )t
FCFFt
(1 + WACC ) t
WACC can be in nominal terms or real terms, depending upon whether the cash flows are nominal or real
WACC can vary from year to year depending on changes in cost of equity or cost of debt
Project future earnings and cash flows (FCFF) for 5-7 years by estimating an expected growth rate in sales and
earnings during this period
For fast growth companies, estimate when the firm will reach stable growth and what characteristics (risk & cash
flow) it will have when it does
For mature companies, estimate a nominal growth rate for cash flows beyond the projection period. This is usually
equal to the growth rate of the economy
142
Value of Firm
=
Present value of operating FCFF during explicit forecast period (5-7 years)
+
Present value of cash flow after explicit forecast period (Terminal Value)
143
NOTE : FCFF does not include any of the financing related cash flows such as interest expense or dividends
n
PVFCFF =
t =1
FCFFt
(1 + WACC ) t
144
Terminal Value
Assume that the firm will generate the last forecast year cash flows in perpetuity
Can also assume a modest growth rate (usually equal to the GDP growth rate)
Terminal Value =
Cn (1 + g )
WACC g
Terminal Value =
EBITDAn *
EVcurrent
EBITDAcurrent
145
146
Capital Expenditures:
Acquisitions
Tax rate:
147
Compute present value of all operating cash flows during projected years
148
Advantages
Since it provides intrinsic value as opposed to market value, hence less influenced by temperamental market
conditions economic or other factors
It allows a detailed assessment of alternative strategies through formulation of alternative cash flow
projections.
Disadvantages:
Terminal value represents a significant portion of value and is highly sensitive to valuation assumptions.
Need realistic projected financial statements over at least one business cycle or until cash flows are
normalized.
Sales growth rate, margins, investment in working capital, capital expenditures and terminal value
assumptions along with the discount rate assumptions are key to the valuation.
149
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Pitchbook Building
150
Usually there can be the following types of book, depending on the purpose :
A. Market Overviews / Bank Introductions: Introducing the bank and giving updates to potential clients.
B. Deal Pitches: Sell-side M&A, buy-side M&A, IPOs, debt issuances, and so on
C. Management Presentations: Used for pitching to the existing client
D. Execution Pitch books: Prepared by the bank for a particular client:
151
153
Copal Partners
Profiles
154
Index
Table of Content
Overview
156
Business Description
157
Key Customers/Partners
158
Key Investors
159
Shareholders Structure
160
Key Management
161
Recent News
162
165
Brokers Rating
166
167
155
Overview
A profile is the most basic presentation tool for research used by investment bankers
It gives a brief overview of a company, clearly laying out key details to enable the reader to form a judgment over
its operation, financial and strategic health
156
Business Description
Sources
157
Company website
About us section of the website is the
best source
Companys fillings, reports and
presentations can also be used
Other databases such as Capital IQ,
Bloomberg, Reuters etc
Key Customers/Partners
Sources
Company website
About us section of the website is the best source
Companys fillings, reports and presentations can also be used
Press releases
Other databases such as Capital IQ, Bloomberg, Reuters etc
In the absence of any information, do a web search, for example
company+ customer and company+partner
158
Key Investors
Financing Summary
NA
12 / 93
0.05
NA
Startup / Seed
NA
01 / 94
2.0
7.8
Early Stage
NA
04 / 96
3.0
17.7
Expansion
NA
03 / 00
4.3
32.4
Later Stage
NA
06 / 02
21.2
35.2
Expansion
NA
05 / 03
4.2
21.2
Expansion
NA
02 / 05
2.5
NA
Later Stage
Sources
Amount Post-Money
Raised
Valuation
Date ($MM)
($MM)
Round
Type
Company Stage
Company Filings
Press releases
159
Shareholders Structure
Private Companies
Sources
160
Key Management
Sources
Recent News
Recent news section reflects the key happenings in the company, and its economic and regulatory environment
Primary objective is to give a quick snapshot about recent developments in the company in the past few months
Acquisitions
Mergers
Divestiture
Management changes
Stock buyback/split, IPO
Follow-on offering
Customer contracts
Partnerships/strategic alliances
Organizational changes
Product launches
Funds raised
Financial news
162
Sources
Company Website
News details
Post formatting
163
News details
Post formatting
164
Sources
165
Presentations
Brokers Rating
Reflects the market / broker views on fundamentals of the Company i.e. a higher rating reflects strong
fundamentals & hence low level of risk and a lower rating reflects weak fundamentals & hence high level of risk
The Brokers rating chart gives the breakup of the total number of Buy, Hold and Sell recommendations over an
last twelve months (LTM) period
The section on Analyst Commentary provides commentary on the company from the analysts research reports
The commentary highlights the strengths of the company and how it has been able to benefit from these
strengths. It may also include the Companys recent developments and which may have affected the share
price and/or the analyst recommendation of the company
Sources
Share trading analysis provides an overview of the share price and the various trends related to capital markets
The purpose of this section is to understand and analyze the share price and capital market movements with
respect to the chosen company
167
Points to remember
Always consider closing price of the stock instead
of the last traded price
The closing price to be considered should be of a
day prior to the date on which it is created
Sources
Stock exchange
websites
Databases such as
Bloomberg, FactSet,
DataStream, Capital
IQ etc
168
Sources
169
Objective is to show in a
chart how has traded
volume of the share been
distributed between
different price ranges
Sources
170
Gauges different analysts perception of the stock and what kind of recommendation they are making on it
Sources
Research reports
171
Gauges the consensus estimates on Revenues, EBITDA and EPS for the future years and how they evolve
Consensus estimates represent the market perception on the future operational results of the company
Sources
172
Sources
Research reports
173
Sources
Research reports
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Case Studies
175
Index
Table of Content
Introduction
177
Types of Acquisition
178
Transaction Types
179
Overview
181
182
Transaction Overview
183
Transaction Highlights
184
Transaction Rationale
185
186
176
Introduction
Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) are a big part of the corporate finance world. Every day, Wall Street investment
bankers arrange M&A transactions, which bring separate companies together to form larger ones.
M&A are a combination of two or more companies, or the acquisition of a part of a corporation for which some
payment is given in compensation. This payment can be in stock, cash or a combination of the two.
Investors in a company, that are aiming to take over another one, must determine whether the purchase will be
beneficial to them. In order to do so, they must determine how much the company being acquired is really worth.
The success of a merger is measured by whether the value of the buyer is enhanced in medium to long term, by
the action.
A transaction case study aim at analyzing the merger and acquisition deal that has taken place.
177
Types of Acquisition
An Acquisition can take the form of a purchase of stock and other equity in the target entity or the purchase of all or a
substantial portion of its assets
Share Purchase In a share/stock purchase, the seller transfers shares in the target entity to the acquirer in
exchange for an agreed-upon consideration. The acquirer takes on the target company with all its assets and
liabilities
Asset Purchase In an asset purchase, the acquirer buys all or a substantial portion of the assets of the target
company. An advantage for the acquirer in an asset purchase is that it can cherry-pick the assets it wants and
leave assets and liabilities that it does not want to purchase
178
Transaction Types
Some common types of deals
Leveraged Buyout An LBO is essentially a strategy whereby the acquirer gains control over the targets stock
or assets through significant amount of borrowed money, making the acquired companys new capital structure
highly levered; for e.g. - Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. and Texas Pacific Groups acquisition of TXU Corp
Secondary Buyout The management team, in conjunction with a private equity fund, acquires the business,
allowing the existing private equity supplier to exit from its investment. Thus, it is an exit mechanism whereby one
investment firm sells its position in a venture on to another; for e.g. - The sale of textile and cleaning group Elis by
French buyout firm PAI Partners to rival Eurazeo
Public to Private Buyout This involves the management or a private equity provider making an offer for the
listed shares of a public quoted company, then taking the company private; for e.g. - Blackstone Groups
acquisition of German chemical maker Celanese
Management Buyout Existing management of a company buys the Company from its owners; foe e.g. A.T.Kearneys management buy-out
Tender Offers A formal offer of determined duration to acquire a public companys shares made to equity
holders. The offer is often conditioned upon certain requirements such as a minimum number of shares being
tendered; for e.g. - Sanofi-Aventis tender offer to acquire all outstanding shares of Genzyme for $69 per share in
cash
Divestiture A deal which results in the loss of majority control, such as sale of subsidiary; for e.g. - Kodaks
sale of Health Group to Onex
Represents the recommendation of the target companys Management or Board of Directors on the transaction
Friendly The Board recommends the offer
Hostile The Board officially rejects the offer (but the acquirer persists with the takeover)
Neutral The Management has nothing to do with the transaction
Not applicable The attitude of the Board is not applicable, i.e. open market repurchases, spin-offs
Unsolicited The offer is a surprise to the targets board, and it has yet not given a recommendation.
Deal Consideration
Additionally, the deal consideration may also include provision for Earnouts. Earnout is a method of
compensating a seller based on the future earnings of the acquired entity. It is the contingent portion of the
purchase price
180
Overview
Case studies focus on different M&A transactions and include the following information regarding the deal:
Target/Acquiror Business Description
Transaction Highlights
Transaction Overview
Transaction Rationale
Implied Multiples (Refer to Trading/Transaction Comp Modules)
Market/brokers Perception
181
In case only one division or segment of the company is being acquired then focus on that particular segment or
division
Also, include data related to the market position of the Target (for example: largest produce of chemicals in China;
one of the leading provider of software solutions etc)
Sources
182
Transaction Overview
This section captures the various news items that have been released regarding the transaction
Start from the first mention of the deal (rumors date) or managements wish to get acquired
Sources
183
Transaction Highlights
Covers a summary of all events that took place in the course of the deal, starting from the announcement of the
deal includes:
Items such as the %age held, final price, dividends declared, financing details, advisors, etc. and Information
regarding the terms and conditions of the deal
Management and shareholding changes, post transaction, if any
Status of the deal, pending or completed
Any other post transactions plans
Compliance requirements with governing agencies
Sources
184
Transaction Rationale
Rationale for Seller/Target: Mention benefits which the seller/target is expecting from the deal or why they want to
sell off the Company
Synergy: Overall synergy benefits expected out of the joint entity post merger. The functions of synergy allow for
the enhanced cost efficiency of a new entity made from two smaller ones - synergy is the logic behind mergers
and acquisitions
Focus on various strategic benefits of the deal such as combining the product portfolio of current target with its
existing portfolio companies and entering a new geography with the current acquisition
Include potential synergies, increase in market share, enhancement in product portfolio, geographic expansion,
financing further growth and divesting non-core activities
Sources
185
The section provides commentary on the company from the analysts research reports; try to include comments
from the brokers who have made commentary on the deal
Also, in some cases, the commentary includes quotes by Key management of the target and acquirer on the
deal
The commentary highlights the attractiveness of the target, deal rationale, comments on valuation or future
predictions of the deal
In case of private companies, try to find out analysts comments on the deal through web search
Try to incorporate broker comments on target/acquirer and seller for the deal
Sources
186
Copal Partners
Industry Overview
187
Introduction
Industry overview analysis presents a snapshot of the industry and its competitive landscape
This is provided to gauge the current positioning of the particular company and identify certain strategic areas that
the company may consider, including M&A options
Industry snapshot
this section details the current state of the industry
provides figures relating to market size and growth rates
also details how the industry is structured in terms of various segments
the current and expected trends are then highlighted to understand the future outlook for the industry
Evolution
briefly highlight the evolution of the industry, and analyze any specific pattern
competitive landscape
briefly describe the competition in each segment highlighting large players and their positioning
Companys positioning
given the industry trends, future outlook and competition, highlight the companys competitive positioning
and suggest any specific strategic actions (this may include a SWOT analysis)
Options
present a case for various strategic options that could be possible given the industry scenario, competitive
landscape and the current state of the company
188
Introduction (contd)
189
Capital requirements
190
The most dominant forces that cause the industry to change are called driving forces
Task 1 - identify the driving forces
Task 2 - assessing their impact on the industry (few are important, generally)
191
Identify strongest/weakest
competition using strategic
group mapping: two
dimensional representation
according to the competitive
characteristics of the
competitors in the industry
Identify competitive
characteristics
Plot firms on a 2 variable
map
Assign firms to strategic
groups
Circle groups proportional
to size
Variables:
Axes should not be
correlated
Expose differences in rival
strategies
Need not be quantitative or
continuous
The closer the circles, the
stronger the rivalry
192
How similar are the benefits the customers derive from the products and services other firms offer?
The more similar the benefits, the higher the level of substitutability between them
193
Overemphasizing competitors financial resources, market position, and strategies while ignoring their intangible
assets
Assuming all firms in industry are subject to same constraints or are open to same opportunities
194
195
Low-cost production efficiency (achieve scale economies, capture experience curve effects)
High utilization of fixed assets (Asset Turnover) (important in capital intensive/high fixed-cost industries)
High labor productivity (important for items with high labor content)
Fast delivery
Merchandising skills
Attractive styling/packaging
Customer guarantees and warranties (important in mail-order retailing, big ticket purchases, new product
introductions)
197
Ability to get newly developed products out of the R&D phase and into the market very quickly
Ability to respond quickly to shifting market conditions (streamlined decision-making, short lead times to bring
new products to market)
198
Attractiveness of the industry in terms of its prospects for above average profitability
Can be judged by the following parameters:
Growth potential
Stability of demand
199
Data gathering
Four considerations to be kept in mind:
200
Appendix
Should contain all necessary definitions of the jargons used in the presentation
Include profiles of the selected target companies
Include previous transactions & comps for that industry
202
Project execution
Do not just write an email for information request and wait for people to
respond. Be proactive, keep calling until you get the desired data from
external and internal contacts
Follow a reasonable caution while calling up external sources
203
For all facts and information on each slide, always ask yourself so what
Always present in a way that forces reader to prompt so what and then answer it in the next section. Keep doing
this unless no such question arise
If the implication of a slide comes out clearly, it transforms a data dump into a value-added analysis
Key questions:
Will this affect the sector, economy or the region being analyzed?
Is the rate of change fast or slow? (Will the impact be strong and immediate or not?)
Does this get you closer to proving or disproving your current hypotheses?
204
Copal Partners
Research Techniques
205
Introduction
There are a lot of research methodologies used to prepare an Industry piece. The most extensively used techniques
are as follows:
A. SWOT Analysis
B. PESTEL Analysis
C. Porters Five forces model
206
SWOT Analysis
A. SWOT Analysis: An analysis of STRENGTHS,WEAKNESSES, OPPURTUNITIES and THREATS. Extremely
useful tool for understanding and decision-making
Applicable in all businesses and organizations
Provides a framework for reviewing strategy, position and direction of a company or business proposition, or
any other idea
Can be used for business planning, strategic planning, competitor evaluation, marketing, business and
product development and research reports
Presented as a grid, comprising four sections, one for each of the SWOT headings
207
PESTEL Analysis
B. PESTEL Analysis
PESTEL is an acronym for Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Environmental and Legal
PESTEL Analysis helps analyze factors in the macro-environment that affect the decisions of the managers of
any organization
Examples include: Tax changes, new laws, trade barriers, demographic change, government policy
changes etc
Helps analyze the many different factors in a firm's macro environment
It is important not to just list PESTEL factors because this does not in itself tell much
Need to find out, which factors are most likely to change and which ones will have the greatest impact on
the company i.e. each firm must identify the key factors in their own environment
208
209
210