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Copal Partners

Investment Banking Module

Index
Table of Content


Introduction to Investment Banking

Valuation Methodologies

14

A. Valuation Techniques

18

B. Comparable Company Analysis

21

C. Comparable Transaction Analysis

95

D. DCF Valuation

112

Pitch book Building

150

A. Profiles

154

B. Case Studies

175

C. Industry overview

187

D. Research Techniques

205

What is Investment Banking?


Is it investing? Is it banking? In reality, it is neither!
Investment banking, or I-Banking, as it is often called, is the term used to describe the business of advising
corporates around their financial needs and raising capital for companies

Buy & Sell securities for their clients and provide stock advice

Facilitate buying and selling of stocks, bonds, options, currencies, derivatives and
other financial products (Flow & Exotic)

Clients include Institutional Investors like pension funds, mutual funds, private clients/
HNIs and individual investors, investment arms of non-finance companies

Follow stocks and make recommendations on whether to buy, sell or hold securities

Prepare Initiation Reports, Sector Reports and also Market Reports

Provide investment ideas for the Sales & Trading Group

Analyze and forecast economic trends, interest rate movements and other industry
level parameters and perform valuations on companies within industry sectors they
follow

Work with clients in determining financing needs and structuring specific financial
strategies

Provide underwriting services on issue of equity or debt securities

Provide advice on Mergers and Acquisitions, foreign exchange, economic and market
trends, and specific financial strategies such as corporate restructurings

Sales and Trading

Equity Research

Corporate Finance /
Advisory

Dynamics/ Relationship between various institutions

Financing

M&A

Corporate Finance

Corporate Finance

Prospectus,
Placement
memorandums,
Valuation,
Underwriting

M&A valuation,
Deal structuring,
Restructuring,
Asset sales and
purchase,
Synergy analyses

Equity Research

Analyst Presentation

Equity Research

Initiation reports
Coverage report
Road shows

Coverage Report

Coverage report
Event Report
Deal notes

Corporates
Sales & Trading

Sales & Trading

Market making
Proprietary Trading

Market making
Proprietary Trading
Chinese Wall

Typical Corporate Finance Deal Team


Title

Experience

Education


Managing Director

Vice President

Associate

Analyst

8+ Years


Usually Top-Tier MBA

Top Undergraduate
Universities,

Usually Top-Tier MBA

Top Undergraduate
Universities,

Usually Top-Tier MBA

3- 8 Years

0-3 Years

0-1 Years

Top Undergraduate
Universities,

Top Undergraduate
University

Role
Managing Directors primarily pitch ideas to
clients to source deals.
Managing Directors spend most of their time in
bringing business to the banks, executing
transactions for clients and maintaining existing
client relationships.
Vice Presidents are also responsible for finding
new clients and servicing existing clients. VPs
however spend more time managing Analysts
and Associates and in the pitch book creation
process
Associates manage analysts work and are
primarily responsible for financial models and
pitch book creation. In addition, they may be
involved in dealing with the MDs and going
over details of potential deals or discussing
numbers (commercial and financial DD)
Analysts perform all research and analysis,
build financial models and put together the
pitch book (deal coordination, commercial and
financial due diligence)

What do they do and how do they make money?


Investment banks perform the following major functions:


Corporate Finance & Advisory services, for which they receive fees

Underwrite securities and provide advisory services

Provide M&A advisory

Provide financial advisory services to companies, governments and other agencies

Sales & Trading activities, for which they earn spreads

Trade securities and commodities

Manage individual and institutional investors funds

Provide brokerage services, invest own resources, make loans

Equity Research, they make money from two sources, primarily from investors / readers of the reports and
secondly, from firms they are covering for which they are paid a set annual fee in cash; they do not accept any
form of equity, which may cause conflicts of interest

Provide information on market

Conduct financial statement analysis and build financial models to derive a company's proper valuation

Investment banking activities tend to be more profitable than commercial banking activities; based on the fees rather
than interest rate differentials

What are Chinese Walls in Investment Banking?


Legal and physical separation between
investment banking and trading activities is
termed as Chinese Walls.
Chinese walls are necessary to separate different
departments within large financial institutions
such as investment banks that serve clients in
different capacities simultaneously, leading to
conflict of interest.
All investors in the market should play on a level
field, where no one has access to privileged
information leading to an undue advantage, due
to their favorable position.

A brief history: The Chinese wall concept in


investing originated from the Glass-Steagall Act, when
the separation of investment banking from brokerage
operations was embraced by the securities industry
regulators.

For example, the corporate finance department


of an investment bank may know of takeover bids
that are being considered, but for the bank's
trading or fund management operations to act on
this information would constitute insider trading.
This makes it necessary that such information is
restricted to the departments actually involved,
so that other departments can function normally.

Glass-Steagall Act: This Act was enacted during the


Great Depression in 1933, after the1929 stock market
crash, to restrict the securities activities and affiliations
of banks. The act was intended to protect banks,
prevent conflicts of interest and other abuses and
safeguard the financial system.
This act set up a regulatory firewall between the
commercial and investment banking activities.

This wall is not a physical boundary, but rather an


ethical and legal one that financial institutions are
legally bound to observe.
7

Role of Corporate Finance


To make it convenient, from now onwards by Investment Banking we would mean Corporate Finance

Corporate Finance

Financings

Client Advisory
Includes:
Acquisitions
Private Company Sale
Public Company Sale
Corporate Restructuring
Corporate Divestitures
Joint-Ventures

Includes:
Initial Public Offerings (IPO)
Secondary Offerings
Debt Syndication
Equity Private Placements

Bankers generally generate business through pitching transaction ideas to clients. Pitch Books - presentations the
bankers use for their clients, contain general information and include a wide variety of selling points they make to
potential clients. Pitch books almost always include valuation and research analysis on a number of companies
and/or industries
Pitch books again can be categorized as follows:


General : Usually, general pitch books include an overview of the I-bank and detail its specific capabilities in
research, corporate finance, sales and trading, primarily used to showcase credentials.

Deal-specific. Deal-specific pitch books are highly customized and are prepared specifically for the transactions
that bankers are proposing to their clients

What are the various types of groups within an Investment Bank?


There are broadly two types of groups within a typical investment bank (or investment banking division):


Product groups: The three most well known product groups are mergers and acquisitions (M&A), leveraged
finance and restructuring.

The products of an Investment Bank, are basically advisory for M&A, Financing, Restructuring, etc., hence a
Group covering any of the above activities would be a Product group

Bankers in Product groups have product knowledge and tend to execute transactions (respectively M&A
transactions, leveraged buyouts (LBOs) and restructuring transactions/bankruptcies).

For e.g. an M&A banker would be a specialist in deal structuring (equity or cash etc.), types of deal structures,
takeover codes (legalities, regulation) in a particular country etc .

Industry groups (also called sector groups or domains): Bankers in industry groups cover specific industries and
develop expertise in a particular sector. They tend to do more marketing activity (pitching).

Examples of common industry groups include FIG (Financial Institutions Group), Healthcare, Consumer/Retail,
Industrials, Natural Resources, TMT (Telecom, Media and Technology.. Often subgroups exist within the broader
group. For example, a Healthcare group may be segregated into biotechnology, medical devices, pharmaceuticals,
etc.

Bulge Bracket Banks and Corporate Finance Boutiques


Bulge Bracket Banks: The term bulge bracket generally refers to the large investment banks that cover most or
all industries and offer most or all of the various types of investment banking services. While there is no official list of
bulge bracket banks, some examples are BAML, JP Morgan, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank etc.
Corporate Finance Boutiques: These are small in size, ranging from a few professionals to hundreds or even
thousands of professionals; can generally be categorized into three types:

specializing in one or more products

specializing in one or more industries and

specializing in small or mid-sized deals & clients (generally less than $500 million)

Boutiques known for M&A, often compete with the bulge bracket banks for M&A transactions. A few examples
include Lazard, Greenhill, Evercore

Other boutiques offer many different products but specialize in one or more industries. Such boutiques often
compete with the bulge bracket banks on the basis of their industry knowledge and expertise. A few examples
include Cowen & Co. (healthcare), Allen & Co. (media) and Thomas Weisel Partners (technology), Avendus
(technology in India)

The third type of boutique, those that offer many products and cover many industries but compete only for middle
market or smaller deals include Jefferies & Co., Piper Jaffray, Raymond James. Many of these middle market
boutiques are regionally focused.

Some of the Indian boutiques are Equirus, O3, Edelweiss, Mape Advisory, Pears Capital , Numinous Consulting,
Viedea Capital

10

Top Global Investment Banks (M&A)


Worldwide Announced deals - 2010
Financial Advisor
Goldman Sachs & Co
Morgan Stanley
JP Morgan
Credit Suisse
Citi
Barclays Capital
Deutsche Bank AG
Bank of America Merrill Lynch
UBS
Lazard
Rothschild
HSBC Holdings PLC
Nomura
Evercore Partners
BNP Paribas SA
Jefferies & Co Inc
Greenhill & Co, LLC
Houlihan Lokey
Blackstone Group LP
Santander
Centerview Partners LLC
RBC Capital Markets
KPMG
Mizuho Financial Group
RBS

Deal Value (in $mn)

Freeman Fees (in $mn)

425,164
346,039
330,835
327,179
299,167
265,094
242,883
236,383
231,960
188,637
127,830
98,194
87,404
79,257
78,350
72,904
70,551
61,464
54,777
51,225
50,161
48,909
44,578
43,279
41,921

1,952.8
1,421.7
1,400.3
1,046.4
729.4
715.6
831.5
906.6
850.9
845.0
746.5
212.0
320.6
209.4
300.1
354.3
202.3
349.6
169.6

344.0

153.2

Source: Thomson Financial


11

Number of Deals
325
331
280
249
185
133
224
204
230
259
245
79
171
35
110
114
47
167
41
47
13
133
327
121
59

Transaction Volumes
Completed Deals Worldwide: Annual Transaction Volume
Date Effective/Unconditional

Deal Value (in $mn)

Number of Deals

2008
2009
2010
2011

1,924,659
1,848,453
1,893,852
824,484

24,890
30,431
32,114
8,762

Industry Total

6,491,448

96,197

Excludes Equity Carveout, Exchange offers and Open Market Purchases

Source: Thomson Financial


12

Role of KPOs in the Investment banking industry

CLIENT
MARKETING

RESEARCH
& ANALYSIS

Investment Banks
DEAL
EXECUTION

KPOs

13

Copal Partners

Valuation Methodologies

14

Valuation Methodologies


Valuation Methodologies can be categorized as under:


A. Fundamental valuation: A stand-alone valuation methodology to compute the intrinsic value of an asset
B. Relative valuation: Valuing an asset relative to its peers

A. Fundamental Valuation:


The DCF (WACC, FTE, APV) model of valuation is a fundamental method.

Value of firm (equity) is the PV of future cash flows.

Ignores the current level of the stock market (industry).

Appropriate for comparing investments across different asset classes (stocks vs. bond vs. real estate,
etc).

B. Relative Valuation:


Comparable company analysis and comparable transaction analysis are relative valuation methods

Relative valuation is based on P/E ratios and a host of other multiples.

Can not compare value across different asset classes (stocks vs. bond vs. real estate, etc).

Can not answer the question is the stock market over valued?

Can answer the question, I want to buy a tech stock, which one should I buy?

Can answer the question, Which one of these overpriced IPOs is the best buy?

15

Fundamental Valuation Concepts




Fundamental analysis is a technique that attempts to determine a securitys value by focusing on underlying
factors that affect a company's actual business and its future prospects.

On a broader scope, one can perform fundamental analysis on industries or the economy as a whole. The term
simply refers to the analysis of the economic well-being of a financial entity as opposed to only its price
movements.

The various fundamental factors can be grouped into two categories: quantitative and qualitative.

Quantitative capable of being measured or expressed in numerical terms.

Qualitative related to or based on the quality or character of something, often as opposed to its size or
quantity.

Fundamental analysis serves to answer questions, such as:

Is the companys revenue growing?

Is it actually making a profit?

Is it in a strong-enough position to beat out its competitors in the future?

Is it able to repay its debts?

Is management trying to cook the books?

16

Relative Valuation Concepts




Relative valuation answers the question How does the value of an asset compare with the values assessed by
the market for similar or comparable assets

Absolute values of comparable assets are standardized for the purpose of comparison. Friendly The Board
recommends the offer
How would you compare a pencil priced at Rs.10 with another pencil priced at Rs. 20?

Standardized values values with a common numerator are called price multiples

Comparing the price multiples of comparable assets can give an indication of whether an asset is under or over
valued.
If Rs.10 pencil lasts 10 days and Rs. 20 pencil lasts 16 days, is Rs. 10 pencil over or under valued compared
to the Rs. 20 pencil?
Everything else being equal, which one would you buy?

17

Copal Partners

Valuation Techniques

18

Valuation Overview


Valuation is the process of determining the current worth of an asset. Valuation answers the question How much
will it cost to acquire the asset?

Further Valuation analysis is done to answer questions like:

How much should Acquirer pay to buy the target?

Is the price offered for the company fair to shareholders?

Is company undervalued / overvalued in the industry?

What is the underlying value of the business against which debt is being issued?

Should we buy/sell/hold positions in a given security?

Thus, Investment banks perform valuation on firms, or parts of firms for several reasons:

Contribution into a Join Venture or Mergers & Acquisitions (Buy side or sell side engagements)

Recommended bid for an acquiring firm

Assess Public equity offerings IPO etc

Floatation of debt or equity or credit

Valuations are not scientific. It is highly dependent on a strong set of assumptions and inputs. A valuation is only
as good as the quality of inputs. Analyst look at a variety of valuation methods to quantify value.

19

Valuation Techniques
There are three primary methods of valuing a company:


Comparable Company Analysis (Trading Comps) Trading Comps analyze key valuation ratios of comparable
companies that are trading in the market to give an indication of what fair value is and compares firms financial
performance to its market value.

Comparable Transactions Analysis (Transaction Comps) Transaction Comps analyze value based on
historical takeout multiples of comparable targets to give an indication of what one would have to pay to acquire
the company. It also includes control premium.

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Discounted cash flow analysis is based on cash flow generation potential of
business. It uses projected cash flows in the future to determine the value of company at the present time. It
involves discounting levered / unlevered cash flows by equity cost of capital or weighted average cost of capital.

20

Copal Partners

Comparable Company Analysis


(Trading Comps)

21

Index
Table of Content


Overview

23

Key Definitions

24

Source of Information

29

Selection of Comparable Companies

31

Equity and equity linked information

32

Market Capitalization

41

Balance Sheet

47

Enterprise Value

58

Income Statement

61

LTM & Calendarization

74

Understanding Multiples

78
22

Overview


Comparable Company Analysis (comps) is the most basic and effective valuation tool used by investment
bankers for the analysis of publicly listed companies across various industries.

This technique is used in private market valuation, IPO valuation, comparative analyses, identifying potential
targets for M&A etc

Comps establishes value of a company and measures its performance vis--vis the operating and trading
statistics of the companys peer group (comparable companies)

Valuation metrics and financial ratios used/ analyzed vary from project to project, depending on the industry and
information available

Trading Comps define the concept comparison of apples-to-apples

A standard comp contains operational statistics containing:

Financial performance parameters such as Revenue, EBIT, EBITDA and EPS

Share price performance parameters such as current & 52 week high/low share price, margin and long term
growth rate

These inputs define the output Multiple sheet (the comps) containing various Enterprise Value (EV) multiples.
Common valuation multiples used are EV/Sales, EV/EBITDA, EV/EBIT, P/E, P/B

Since the comps provide multiples prevailing at a given point of time, they provide a static view of comparable
companies and can change over a period of time depending on the companys financial performance and market
performance (stock performance)

23

Key Definitions


Represents the market value of all outstanding shares

Calculated as Total number of shares outstanding x current share price

A privilege, in which the underlier is the common stock of a corporation, that


gives the buyer the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell a stock at an
agreed-upon price during a certain period of time or on a specific date

A right granted to employees of a company to buy a certain amount of shares


in the company at a predetermined price. Employees typically must wait a
specified vesting period before being allowed to exercise the option

Warrants

A derivative security or certificate that gives the holder/ bearer the right to
purchase securities (usually equity) from the issuer at a specific price within a
certain time frame

Convertibles

Securities, usually bonds or preferred shares, that can be converted into


common stock at a specified conversion price

Market capitalization

Stock Options

24

Key Definitions (contd)


Fully Diluted shares

Treasury stock method

Represents the number of shares that would result if all stock options,
warrants and convertible debts were traded in for stock.

Treasury stock method is used in determining the number of shares


outstanding

Results in an increased number of shares outstanding and decreased


earnings per share

The purpose of the Treasury method is to account for the cash generated by the
exercise of options and/or warrants

Treasury stock method assumes that the options and/or warrants are exercised
at the beginning of the year (or issue date if later) and such proceeds are used
to repurchase outstanding shares of common stock

Example
Current share price

$ 50

Shares outstanding
Options/ warrants outstanding
Exercise price
Proceeds from conversion of in the money options

400 mn
10 mn
$ 25
10 x $ 25 = $ 250mn

Stock buyback (at premium)


Diluted Shares

$ 250 / $ 50 = 5 mn
400 + 10 5 = 405 mn

25

Key Definitions (contd)




Includes all interest bearing obligations both long-term and short-term such
as loans, credit facilities etc

Excludes in-the-money convertible debt

Minority Interest

Represents portion of equity not owned by the majority shareholder - a


significant but non-controlling interest of less than 50%

Preferred equity

Represents class of stock carrying preference over equity stake holders to


receive dividend and repayments in the event of liquidation

Capital lease

A lease that transfers substantially all risks and rewards of ownership to the
lessee

Cash and cash


equivalents

Represents cash, marketable securities and short-term investments that can


easily be converted to cash

Total debt

26

Key Definitions Some Examples


Example 2. Which of the following statement is correct:
a) Restricted cash is always excluded from cash for calculation of net debt
b) Restricted cash, if related to debt, include in cash for calculation of net debt
c) Restricted cash, if related to Letter of credit and Bank Guarantees, include in cash for calculation of net debt
d) Restricted cash is always included in cash for calculation of net debt
Example 3. Calculate the fully diluted shares outstanding:
Shares o/s

470 mn

Current price

$30.00

Options o/s

10 mn

Exercise price

$20.00

Exercise price

$40.00

Warrants o/s 5 mn
a) 470 mn
b) 485 mn
c) 473.3 mn
d) 471.6 mn

27

Key Definitions Some Examples (contd)


The correct answer is (c)!!!!!!!!
Current stock price

$30.00

Exercise price of options

$20.00

Since, the exercise price of options is less than the current stock price, the options are In the money
However, the exercise price of warrants is more than the current stock price, the warrants are Out of the money
Dilution effect of Options can be calculated as:
Amount raised from exercise of options

= Number of Options X Exercise price of options


= 10 X 20 = $ 200 mn

Shares bought back at current market price = Amount raised from exercise of options / Current stock price
= 200 / 30 = 6.67 mn shares
Dilution effect of Options

= Number of Options - Shares bought back at current market price


= 10 6.67 = 3.3 mn shares

Total number of diluted shares

= 470 + 3.33 = 473.3 mn shares

28

Filings and Sources


Source all data from the Companys official latest financial filings
Check Company Website, Investor Relation Section, look out for latest:
 Annual Report (AR)
 Quarterly / Interim / Half Yearly Report ( Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4 or IR )
 Press Releases and Announcements
For US companies
 Annual report - SEC filing - 10K (From 10kwizard.com or www.sec.gov)
 Quarterly report (SEC 10Q)
 Press releases, pro forma filings, M&A announcements (SEC filing 8K)
 Prospectus (SEC filing 424B series)
For Non-US companies listed in US stock exchange
 Annual report (SEC filing 20F, 40F )
 Quarterly/ Half-yearly report (SEC 6K )
 Press releases and Announcements (SEC 6K )
 Research Reports (For Forward Estimates)
Note:

(i) Always use most recent filings for EV calculation as we are looking for the current and most
recent financial position of the company
(ii) Always use the pro-forma financials in case the company has completed a major acquisition or
divestiture
(iii) Where the company has made restatements and filed restated financials, always use such
restated financials.

29

Filings and Sources (contd)




Stock Exchange where Company is listed

Stock exchange is a very important source and provides lot of useful information such as latest shares
outstanding, latest financials filed by the Companies, recent press releases or announcements.

Apart from Company Website and Stock Exchange, bankers also use various databases for their cross
references such as:

Bloomberg

FactSet

Thomson Reuters

Thomson One Banker

Capital IQ

Merger Market

Factiva

Hoovers

One Source

DataStream

Note:

There are many more databases apart from the names mentioned above used by companies for
their analysis. Since these are all paid data sources, companies subscribe them according to their
work requirement.

30

Peer Group Identification




Peer Group Analysis means identifying a list of comparable companies for valuation.

The following criteria should be borne while doing the preliminary search for selecting the companies to form a
peer set:

Similar Industry, featuring into the same sub-sector, having product categories which are related

Same size of companies, can be identified with similar operating margins, growth rate, cash flow, number of
employees etc

Having similar customer segmentation

Ideally should belong to same region/country/geography

Should not be undergoing any unusual or major strategic changes, such as an M&A, divestiture

There are various sources available for Peer Analysis such as Thomson One Banker, Bloomberg, Reuters,
OneSource, Research Report, Google Finance, Company Websites (for Description), broker reports etc.

31

Equity and equity linked information Shares




Source Shares Outstanding from the most recent financials

Number of shares should exclude the treasury shares or own shares. Treasury shares are shares repurchased by
the company and do not have the right to dividends, have no voting rights, and should not be included in shares
outstanding calculations.

In case of companies filing with SEC, outstanding shares can generally be found on the cover page of the 10K,
10Q, 20F report. In case of Non US companies search out for filings on various sources including Company
Website, Latest Filings and Stock Exchanges of the respective country.

Where a Company has more than one class of share, with all classes being listed, input the total of all classes of
shares in shares outstanding and calculate weighted average share price

In case, one class of share is listed and the other class of shares are unlisted, input the total of listed and unlisted
shares in shares outstanding and assume the share price of unlisted shares to be equal to that of listed shares

32

Equity and equity linked information Shares (contd)


In the given example of Novell Inc, the number of shares outstanding is 353.053202 mn. This is obtained from
the cover page of 10Q Jan 2011 filing
Annotation
10Q Jan 11, cover page,
Shares outstanding as of 28 Feb 2011

33

Equity and equity linked information Shares (contd)


Example 4. Calculate the Market cap of ABC Co. with the available information
Particulars

Details

Par Value

Market price

Class A Shares o/s

200 mn

$10.00

$500.00

Class B Shares o/s

10 mn

$100.00

Unlisted

a. $ 100,000 mn
b. $ 100,500 mn
c. $ 105,000 mn
d. $ 150,000 mn
The market cap in this case is $150,000 mn
Market Cap for Class A shares = 200 X 500 = $100, 000 mn
Since Class B shares are unlisted, we will calculate the price of class B shares as follows:
Price of Class A shares / Par value of Class A shares X Par value of Class B shares
$500.00 / $10 X $100 = $5,000.00
Market Cap for Class B Shares = 10 X 5,000 = $50,000 mn
Market Cap for the Company = $100,000 + $50,000 = $150,000 mn

34

Equity and equity linked information Shares (contd)


Example 5. Calculate the latest shares outstanding
with below mentioned data:

The correct answer is (a)!!!!!!!!

Particulars

Date Details

Since the stock split has been effected on June 30,


2010, we will not adjust the Shares outstanding

Shares O/S

31-Dec-10

350 mn

Stock split

30-Jun-10

2:1

Share buyback

15-Mar-11

10 mn

Stock dividend

20-Feb-11

2:1

Shares Outstanding as on Dec 31 = 350 mn


Stock dividend

= 350 X 2/1
= 700 mn

Share buyback (March 15) = 10 mn


Latest Shares Outstanding as on March 15, 2011=
Shares Outstanding as on Dec 31 + Stock dividend
- Share buyback

a) 1,040 mn
b) 1,360 mn
c) 690 mn

350 + 700 10 = 1,040 mn

d) 1,380 mn

35

Equity and equity linked information Options and warrants




Input information on Options (and Warrants) from latest financials. 10K or annual filings are usually the best
source

Notes to the financials should provide detailed information on total number of Options & warrants outstanding,
traunche-wise details and the weighted average strike price on them. Ensure that the equivalent number of
shares and not number of options or warrants are entered

Input the Options Outstanding and weighted average exercise price of such outstanding options and NOT the
Options Exercisable

Depending on the space available in the template, input options/ warrants outstanding and weighted average
exercise price tranche-wise or in aggregate.

In case options/warrants have a range of exercise price, take the average or lower of the range for maximum
dilution effect.

Read Management Discussion & Analysis and Notes to Financial statements closely and ensure all option plans/
warrants are incorporated

36

Equity and equity linked information Options and warrants (contd)


In the given example of Novell Inc, the total options (equivalent shares) outstanding are 30.933 mn, with a weighted
average exercise price of USD 3.96

37

Equity and equity linked information Convertible debt




Input information on Convertible debt (value) from latest financials. Latest financials should provide price of
Conversion or at least the conversion ratio from where the conversion price can be deduced. If not, revert to the
previous annual report for conversion price

If convertible price of the convertible debt is not given, read the relevant notes and MD&A to figure out the
conversion ratio i.e. the number of shares into which the debt will be converted. Only in the money debt are
considered for weighted average exercise price of the convertible debt

While convertible debt is in the money, it will be treated as equity, once it falls out of the money it will be added
back to debt

Depending on the space available in the template, input convertible debt and conversion price tranche-wise or in
aggregate.

Input a comprehensive note for the convertible debt

38

Equity and equity linked information Convertible debt (contd)


Equity and equity linked information Convertible debt
Example 6
Current share price
Book value of Convertible debt

$ 50
$ 200 mn

Conversion price per share


Equivalent shares on conversion of in-the-money
convertible debt

$ 40
200/ 40 = 50 shares

Current share price


Book value of convertible debt (par value $1000 each) $ 100 mn
Conversion ratio
Conversion price per share of convertible debt

$ 50

Example 7

(out of money and hence added to debt)

39

16
$ 1000/ 16 = $ 62.5

Equity and equity linked information Convertible debt (contd)


Example 8. If a company has convertible debt of US$100 mn with a conversion price of US$ 50.00, the company's
current price is US$ 51.00, which of the following treatment is correct:
a) Include US$ 100 mn in net debt
b) Include US$ 100 mn in Market Cap
c) Include equivalent number of shares in shares outstanding
d) Include equivalent number of shares in shares outstanding and do not include US$100 mn in net debt

The correct answer is (d)!!!!!!!

When the convertible debt is converted into equity shares, the liability for the debt is eliminated and the number of
common equity shares is increased

40

Market Capitalization
Dual Listing
When a security is registered for trading on more than one exchange. The treatment of dual listed companies
depends upon the specifications of the end user . However, the two common treatments of dual listed companies are
as follows:
Treatment 1 : In certain cases, weighted average market capitalization is calculated by adding the product of
share prices prevailing on both the exchanges & shares outstanding for respective classes of shares
Treatment 2 : Output for both the classes of securities is shown separately. Market Capitalization is calculated
using the share price on each exchange. For example, in case of Chinese companies which are also listed on
Hong Kong stock exchange, will have inflated prices on Chinese stock exchange, so it is better to analyze them
using both the classes of shares separately.
Market Cap, EV and multiples for different class of shares are calculated as:
Market Capitalization: Market Capitalization to be calculated for both class of shares using share outstanding for
each class and their respective share price
Net Debt : Bifurcate total net debt into two classes of shares based on proportion of market cap
Enterprise Value: Calculate EV (Market cap + Net debt for respective class) and EV per share for each class
Multiples: Calculate per share value of relevant financial metrics (Revenue, EBIT, EBITDA, EPS)
Calculate multiples for each class separately using EV per share for each class and per share financials as
calculated

41

Market Capitalization (contd)


Example 11
A Company XYZ Inc. has two Class of shares A & H.
As at 30 Apr 11
Share Price (April 30, 2011)
Shares outstanding
HKD - CNY Exchange rate

Class A
CNY 50.00
16,500 mn
0.8955

As at 31 Mar 11
Net Debt
Minority Interest
LTM Revenue
LTM EBIT
LTM EBITDA
LTM EPS

CNY 4,250 mn
CNY 20,500 mn
CNY 82,000 mn
CNY 33,000 mn
CNY 41,500 mn
CNY 1.04

Calculate the relevant multiples

42

Class H
HKD 35.00
3,400 mn

Market Capitalization (contd)


Step 1. Calculation of Market Cap, EV and Multiples for both the class of shares
Class A
Share Price
CNY 50.00
Shares outstanding
16,500 mn
Market Cap
CNY825,000 mn
Market Cap (CNY)
CNY825,000 mn
Proportion of Market Cap
88.56%
Net Debt (In proportion of Market Cap) CNY 3,763.8 mn
Minority Interest
CNY 18,154.9 mn
Enterprise Value
CNY 846,919 mn (approx.)
EV / Share
CNY 51.33

Step 2. Calculation of financials per share

Class H
HKD 35.00
3,400 mn
HKD 11,9000 mn
CNY 106,565 mn (approx.)
11.44%
CNY 486.1 mn
CNY 2,345.1 mn
CNY 109,396 mn (approx.)
CNY 32.18

Multiples

Class A

Class H

Revenue / share

CNY 82,000 / 19,900 (16,500+3,400)

CNY 4.12

Revenue

12.46x

7.81x

LTM EBIT / share

CNY 33,000 mn / 19,900

CNY 1.66

EBIT

30.95x

19.40x

LTM EBITDA CNY 41,500 mn / 19,900

CNY 2.09

EBITDA

24.61x

15.43x

LTM EPS

CNY 1.04

P/E

48.08x

30.14x

43

Market Capitalization (contd)


Shares / Depositary Receipts
A negotiable financial instrument issued by a bank to represent a foreign company's publicly traded securities. The
depositary receipt trades on a local stock exchange.
When the depositary bank is in the U.S., the instruments are known as American Depositary Receipts (ADRs).
European banks issue European depositary receipts, and other banks issue global depositary receipts (GDRs).

Treatment of shares / DRs


Generally, the companies which have depository receipts, are analyzed on the basis of the stock price of the
company. In that case, all the shares related information is calculated on the basis of stock price.
However, in certain cases, two individual tabs are created for the same company in one tab, all the shares and
price related information is calculated on the basis of DRs using the Shares-DR ratio with the price of DRs and in
the other, on the basis of stock price. Also, in this case, the company is presented twice, once on the basis of stock
price and second, on the basis of DR.

44

Market Capitalization (contd)


Example 12.
XYZ Inc. has 250 mn shares outstanding as at 31 Dec 2010. The companys also has its ADRs listed at NYSE
Following information is available from companys AR Dec 10
Shares outstanding

250 mn

Price per ADR as on 25 Apr 2011

$20.00

Company made following fresh issues during the month of March:


On 10 Mar 2011

25 mn shares

On 25 Mar 2011

10 mn ADR

On 30 Mar 2011, company announced bonus issue of 1 share for every 4 shares held.
1 ADR represents 4 ordinary shares of the company
Calculate the Market cap of company as on 25 Apr 2011
a)

$ 1,968.8 mn

b)

$ 5,700 mn

c)

$ 6,300 mn

d)

$7,875 mn
45

Market Capitalization (contd)


The correct answer is (a) !!!!!
Shares outstanding as on 31 Dec 10
Add Shares issued on 10 Mar 11
Add ADR issued on 25 Mar 11
Equivalent number of shares*

= 250 mn
= 25 mn
= 10 mn
= 10 X 4
= 40 mn

Shares outstanding as on 25 Mar 11

= 315 mn

Adjusted for Bonus issue (1:4)

= 315*1.25
= 393.8 mn

ADR Price per share


Market Capitalization

= $20.00
= 393.8 X 20 / 4
= $ 1,968.8 mn

* Each ADR represents 4 ordinary shares

46

Balance Sheet
Balance Sheet Information - Source data in this section from the latest financials
Cash and Cash Equivalents

Consolidated Balance sheet as at 31 Jan 2011


Novell Inc
(amounts in thousands)

In the above case of Novell, cash and cash equivalents


shall be:
$ 981.426 + $ 150.009 = $ 1,042.915 mn

47

Includes cash and bank balances

Includes cash equivalents & marketable securities

Includes short-term investments

Cash equivalents are highly liquid short-term


investments that can be easily converted to cash

Short term investments aren't as liquid as money in


a bank account, but provide added cushion if some
immediate need arises

Cash and cash equivalents should generally


exclude restricted cash. Restricted cash represents
that portion of cash or equivalents that are
earmarked for specific purposes or restricted for the
purpose of intended use. However, if cash is
earmarked for a particular debt fund, that has been
included in total debt, then such restricted cash is
included in the calculation of EV

Strategic investments are not taken into


consideration

Check end user requirements for changes in


assumptions

Balance Sheet (contd)


Balance Sheet Information - Source data in this section from the latest financials
Total Debt


Debt includes all interest bearing liabilities (long term and short term) of the Company i.e. obligations that have a
financing cost to the company (such as Bank overdrafts / Current portion of long term borrowings / short term and
long term loans / Convertible debts)

Include preferred equity, minority interest and capital leases in debt.

Consider Capital lease obligation ONLY if it is stated in the Balance Sheet. Do not confuse capital lease
obligations with the operating lease obligations. The latter is an expense item in the income statement

Read the MD&A and Notes to financial statements closely as sometimes Minority Interest is not represented in
the Balance Sheet as a separate item but is given in the Other Liabilities

Include pension liabilities (deficit) in debt, only if specific guidelines have been given to that effect. Pension deficit
is the value of all pension obligations minus the market value of any pension assets

In case of a US Company: US GAAP has the requirement for the company to give a separate note for Pension
assets and pension liabilities. Pension deficit is = Pension Liabilities Less Pension Assets

For a company in UK: FRS 17 gives the accounting policy for a separate disclosure of pension deficit

For other companies: Read the MD&A and Notes to financial statements and determine accordingly

Always consider Net Pension Liability recognized in the balance sheet or Unfunded or Deficit in Pension Fund.
In case company reports surplus ie Pension Assets are more than Liabilities, ignore it.

Remember to exclude in-the-money convertible debt and include out of money convertible debt in total debt
48

Balance Sheet (contd)


Balance Sheet Information - Source data in this section from the latest financials
Consolidated Balance sheet as on 31 Jan 2011
Novell Inc
(amounts in thousands)

In the given example, the total debt for EV


calculation shall be:
Senior Convertible Debenture
(Add minority interest if reported
separately)

Shareholders equity


Input from the latest financials the book value of shareholders equity or stockholders equity.

Remember shareholders equity is always excluding minority interest.


49

Balance Sheet (contd)


Balance Sheet Information - Source data in this section from the latest financials
Long Term Investments


Read the note for Long term investment and check whether company has invested in private unquoted company
or in Quoted/ Listed/ Traded company or in mutual funds or government stocks.

Consider the long term investment in public company, mutual funds and government stocks as their market value
can be assessed easily. Ignore any invest done in private or unquoted company.

Remember for the ultimate effect, long term investment is treated as a part of cash and cash equivalents and gets
excluded from EV.

Equity Investments


Includes Investment in Affiliates / Subsidiaries / Joint Ventures / Associated Company / Equity Affiliates

Mostly Company reports equity investments as a separate line item in their balance sheet.

Consider all equity investments irrespective of short term or long term or quoted or unquoted.

Remember for the ultimate effect, long term investment is treated as a part of cash and cash equivalents and gets
excluded from EV.

50

Balance Sheet (contd)

Check the note for Non Current Investment Long Term and consider only the portion invested in Quoted/ Listed/
Traded company or in mutual funds or government stocks.

Add Current Investment in Marketable Securities in Cash and Cash Equivalents

Also consider Investments in Associates Undertaking for valuation.

51

Balance Sheet (contd)


Balance Sheet Information Adjustments
The latest financial publication is used to determine Enterprise value. However, there are certain corporate actions,
which if they occur subsequent to the date of the latest filing, have to be given effect as these have an impact on the
Enterprise value. A few of these adjustments include:
Stock Split : A stock split is a corporate action involving the dividing of companys existing stock into multiple shares.
This is effected by reducing the par value of shares and increasing the number of shares. The Shareholders equity
remains the same. Adjustments to be effected include:.


Increase the number of outstanding shares

Check that the stock price is split-adjusted

Increase the number of equivalent shares on conversion of options and reduce (in the same ratio) the exercise
price

Similar effect on warrants and convertible debt (exercise price)

Equity issue : In case a company makes a fresh additional equity issue, the following adjustments have to be made:


Increase the number of shares outstanding by the fresh number of shares issued

Increase shareholders equity by issue value

Increase cash by the net proceeds of the issue

Check for pro forma filings

Stock Buyback : When a company repurchases the shares it had previously issued, it is called a Stock buyback.
This reduces the number of shares outstanding in the market. Adjustments to be effected include:


Decrease the number of shares outstanding by the number of shares repurchased

Decrease cash by the amount used to repurchase shares

Reduce shareholders equity by value of treasury stock repurchased


52

Balance Sheet (contd)


Balance Sheet Information Adjustments
Debt Issue : A Company when in need of funds, can raise Debt as a source of funds. It may be preferable than issue
of shares as debt issue leads to no dilution of control of company. Adjustments include:


Add the Net proceeds to Cash. Net Proceeds means proceeds received, net of any discount and expenses of
issue.

Add the face value of the debt to the Total debt

Debt Redemption or repayment of a Debt outstanding in the books.




Deduct the Net outflow from Cash. Net Outflow means net outflow of cash including discount or premium on
redemption

Deduct the face/ book value of the debt from the Total debt outstanding before such redemption

Rights Issue: If the company decides to issue additional shares (equity) as a source of raising additional capital, it
may be obliged to first offer such shares (or rights) to the existing shareholders. In effect , the number of shares
outstanding increases. Adjustments similar to equity issue.
Bonus Issue: In the case of a bonus issue, equity shares are issued to existing shareholders for no additional
consideration. It is also called a capitalization issue. There is no effect on shareholders equity. Adjustments are to be
made to outstanding shares, options/ warrants and corresponding exercise prices with respect to bonus factor.
Stock Dividend: A dividend is the distribution of profits to a company's shareholders. Such distribution can be in the
form of cash or issue of stock ( i.e. Stock Dividend). In the case of stock dividend additional shares are issued to
existing shareholders without any receipt of cash from them. There is no effect on shareholders equity. Adjustments
are to be made to outstanding shares, options/ warrants and corresponding exercise prices

53

Balance Sheet (contd)


Example 9.

A company announced a two for one stock split and a stock dividend of 25% on 10 May 2011 ( i.e. after
the release of results for Q1 Mar 2011):

Following information is available from companys IR Mar 11


Shares outstanding

465.52 mn

Share price as on 15 May 2011

$12.00

Company bought back shares from open market as follows:


On 15 April 2011

25 mn shares

On 12 May 2011

55 mn shares

What is the share outstanding and market cap as on 15 May 2011?


a) 963.8 mn shares and Market cap $11,565.6 mn
b) 1,083.8 mn shares and Market cap $13,005.6 mn
c) 1,046.3 mn shares and Market cap $12,555.6 mn
d) 1,163.8 mn shares and Market cap $13,965.6 mn

54

Balance Sheet (contd)


The correct answer is (c) !!!!!
Shares outstanding as on 31 Mar 11

= 465.52 mn

Less Shares bought back on 15 Apr 2011

= 25.00 mn

Shares outstanding as on 15 Apr 2011

= 440.52 mn

Adjustment for Stock Split:


Shares o/s adjusted for Stock split of 2:1

= 440.52*2
= 881.04 mn

Shares o/s adjusted for Stock dividend of 25%

= 881.04*1.25

Shares o/s as on 10 May 2011

= 1,101.30 mn

Less: Shares bought back on 12 May 2011

= 55 mn

Latest shares outstanding

= 1,046.30 mn

Share price as on 15 May 2011

$ 12.00

Market Cap

$12,555.6 mn

55

Balance Sheet (contd)


Example 10. Following information is available from companys AR Dec 10
Short-term debt
Long-term debt

$ 50mn
$ 200mn

Cash and cash equivalents$ 150mn


(Convertible notes included in Long term debt $ 50mn, conversion price $20 per share)
Company did following transactions during the March 2011:
On 5 Mar 2011
Issued debentures worth $100mn (debt issue expenses $ 9mn)
On 15 Mar 2011
Redeemed senior notes of face value of $20mn
On 18 Mar 2011
Holders of convertible debt worth $ 25mn exercised their option of conversion
Calculate adjusted total debt and cash and cash equivalents
a) Cash $230mn, Debt $305mn
b) Cash $221mn, Debt $305mn
c) Cash $205mn, Debt $305mn
d) Cash $230mn, Debt $330mn

56

Balance Sheet (contd)


The correct answer is (b)
(in USD mn)

Particulars

Balance as on 31
Dec 10

Cash

Short term
debt

Long Term
Debt

Total Debt

150

50

200

250

5 Mar 11

Issue of debentures

91

100

100

15 Mar 11

Redemption of senior
notes

(20)

(20)

(20)

18 Mar 11

Conversion of
convertible debt

(25)

(25)

221

30

275

305

Adjusted
balance

57

Enterprise Value
Formula to calculate Enterprise Value

Total Enterprise Value (TEV or EV) is the term bankers use when they
refer to the total value of a company (also referred to as Aggregate
Value)

Market Capitalization
+
Total Debt

Enterprise value is a measure of the actual economic value of a


company at a given point of time. It reflects what it would actually cost to
purchase the entire company

+
Minority Interest
+
Preferred Stock
+

One could believe that a possible way to calculate the value of a


company would be to look at the value of the assets in the companys
balance sheet. This is a common misconception because the assets in
the balance sheet are recorded using the historical value and thus it is
not the value the company has today

Capital Leases

Cash & Cash Equivalents

Generally for public companies TEV = market value of the equity + total
debt (short and long term) + minority interest + preferred stock + capital
leases cash and cash equivalents

=
Enterprise Value or
EV

The method and assumptions for calculation of enterprise value varies


with every financial institution, banker and industry

58

Enterprise Value vis--vis Market cap


Enterprise value


is a measure of the actual economic value of a company at a given point of time

reflects the actual purchase price anyone acquiring the company would have to pay

indicator of how the market attributes value to a firm as a whole

many investors use the current value of all of a company's outstanding shares or market capitalization, as a
proxy for its economic value

Why doesn't market capitalization properly represent a firm's value?


Although market capitalization is the key component of the actual economic value of a company, it is not the only
one. In order to calculate a more Accurate value we need to consider the other things which come as a baggage
along with the company when it is acquired. We have to take into account all the obligations which are now to be
discharged by the acquirer
Role of Debt and Cash
In the event of a buyout, the buyer has to pay the equity value and would have to assume/ repay the companys debt.
Of course, the buyer gets to keep the cash available with the firm, which is why cash needs to be deducted from the
firm's price

59

Enterprise Value
Example 1. What is the Market Cap & EV for the company:
B/S as on 31 Dec 2010 (in CNY mn):
Cash
Debt
Minority Interest
Current exchange rate for HK$ to CNY is 1.1

200
175
50

Share Price (in HK$)


Shares outstanding (in '000)

a) Market Cap is CNY 25 mn & EV is CNY 50 mn.


b) Market Cap is HK$ 25,000 mn & EV is CNY 25,025 mn.
c) Market Cap is HK$ 27.5 mn & EV is CNY 52.5 mn.
d) Market Cap is CNY 27.5 mn & EV is CNY 52.5 mn.
The correct answer is (d)!!!!!!!!
Share Price (HK$)

5.00

Share Price (CNY) = SP(HK$) X HKD CNY Exchange Rate


Share Price (CNY) = 5.00 X 1.10 = CNY 5.50
Market Cap (CNY mn) = 5.50 X 5,000 / 1,000 = CNY 27.5 mn
Enterprise Value (CNY mn) = Market Cap + Debt + Minority Interest Cash
Enterprise Value (CNY mn) = 27.5 + 175 + 50 200 = CNY 52.5 mn

60

5.00
5,000

Income Statement
Income Statement Information


Revenue/ Net Sales: Income from sales of goods and services, minus the cost associated with elements such as
returned or undeliverable merchandise, discounts, and allowances. Also called sales revenue, net sales, net
revenue, and sales

Other revenues: The total revenues which the company has earned may include other revenues incidental to
business. These are revenues derived from activities not directly related to the operations of the Company and
therefore should not be included in turnover. For instance, Rental income should not be included in turnover.
However, revenues of real estate companies will primarily consist of rental income. Therefore, identify the
Companys business and decide the composition of revenues accordingly

EBITDA: EBITDA means earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. It is an indicator of the
cash earnings that a company generates from its on going and recurrent operations regardless of its capital
structure. EBITDA can be used to analyze the profitability between companies and industries, because it
eliminates the effects of financing and accounting decisions. (EBITDA is often used as an indicator of unlevered
cash flow in case of scarce information).

EBIT: EBIT means earnings before interest and taxes. It measures the income that a company generates from its
on going and recurrent operations. Also called Operating Income or Income from Operations

Net Income: Net Income represents total earnings available to common shareholders. Net Income is derived by
subtracting all costs of doing business, depreciation, interest and taxes from revenues. Share of minorities for the
period and preferred stock dividends, must also be deducted to arrive at Net Income.
61

Income Statement (contd)


Income Statement Information - Normalization


Normalization refers to the process of adjusting/ removing the effect of extraordinary and one-time items from
components of Income Statement (revenues, EBITDA, EBITA, EBIT & Net Income)

For the purpose of Comps, companies have to be evaluated and compared on basis of trading / valuation metrics
and thereby it is imperative that any exceptional and non-recurring items impacting the operating results of a
company be removed and cleaned, so as to make its results comparable within its peer group

Some examples of exceptional / non-recurring items include restructuring charges, impairment, gain on sale of
fixed assets, income from divested business etc

Always read through the Notes to Financial Statements and MD&A closely to identify extraordinary items.
Details of exceptional items are generally found in the Notes to financial statements and MD&A

Rule for making adjustments

ADD Exceptional charge, non-recurring expense or loss

REDUCE Exceptional or non-recurring gain, one-time gains

For adjusted net income, make appropriate tax adjustments for the tax impact of such extraordinary items. Read
the MD&A closely for actual tax impact of exceptionals, if available. If not, use the marginal tax rate for making tax
adjustments. Marginal Tax rate should be effective or statutory tax rate.

62

Income Statement (contd)


Income Statement Information
Let us consider the case of Novell Inc.
Example: Normalized Revenue

If you look at the Consolidated Statement of


Operations you would say that the companys
revenue for FY 2010 would be USD 811.871 mn.
But it is equally important to check the
Management Discussions & Analysis (MD&A)
section of the Annual 10K, where you will find
the breakup of the total net revenue figure.
There you might find any exceptional item which
shall not be included as a part of core revenue
of company.
This is the reason why it is very important to
carefully review the notes to the financial
statements and the MD&A section.
Also, always consider Net revenue after
deducting sales tax and not the Gross
Revenue!!

Net Revenue = USD 811.871 mn

63

Income Statement (contd)


Income Statement Information
Example: Normalized EBIT

The Company states that its operating income


was USD 84.437 mn Is this equal to EBIT? No!
Look carefully at the line items above the
operating income. These include the following
expenses which are non-recurring and not
directly related to the operation of the business :
Restructuring expenses, impairment of goodwill,
impairment of intangible assets, purchased in
process research & development, gain on sale
of property, plant and equipment, gain on sale of
subsidiaries.
These items should not be included in the EBIT
calculation. We need to adjust for these one
time expenses or gains to get the correct EBIT

Company has not reported any amount except


restructuring expenses, hence we will adjust
EBIT for the latter.

EBIT = 84.437 + 2.774 = $ 87.211 mn

64

Income Statement (contd)


Income Statement Information
Example: Normalized EBITDA
EBITDA is one of the most commonly used
terms by investment banker because it is an
efficient way to understand the efficiency and
profitability of a company
EBITDA is calculated as
Normalized EBIT + Depreciation and
Amortization
Always remember to take Depreciation &
Amortization from the cash flow statement

EBITDA = 87.211 + 30.298 = USD 117.509 mn

65

Income Statement (contd)


Income Statement Information
Example: Normalized Net Income

In the Consolidated Statement of Operations,


the Company reports a net income of USD
377.366 mn
We need to adjust the reported Net income
figure to get the normalized net income like we
did for the previous EBIT calculation. The
company has a couple of non-recurrent and
extraordinary items which also have to be
adjusted to get the accurate net income. One of
such items is the Impairment / write down of
Investments
Now is net Income equal to:
= 377.366 -7.413+2.774= $ 372.727 mn.
Wrong!

66

Income Statement (contd)


Income Statement Information
Example: Normalized Net Income
Adjust for Tax : Always remember that when you are dealing with net income you have to account for the tax
implications of an increase or decrease in profits. Net income is always calculated after taxes, and in a way
expenses act as a tax shield, as the higher expenses you have the less taxes you pay.
Thus, One time and extraordinary charges have to be adjusted for tax. Here, we shall use the statutory tax rate of the
country of incorporation of the Company (which is 40% in case of Novell Inc. as it is a US company )
There are certain cases we need to remember when we charge Net Income for tax such as
1. Always charge Exceptional or one off items for tax whenever company is reporting net profit in its books.
2. In case company is reporting net loss, tax adjustment is done only if loss turns into profit after adjusting for
exceptional items and than tax is charged on the whole figure including net loss.
3. If the resulting figure for net loss remains negative even after adjusting exceptional items, there will be no tax
adjustment at all.
4. Remember to tax-effect all adjustments to net income, if items relate to an after-tax financial statistic and are
tax-deductible. Do not tax adjust a net loss or non-tax deductible items such as goodwill
Therefore, the adjusted Net Income

= 377.366 + ( -7.413+2.774)* (1- 0.40)

67

= $ 374.582 mn

Income Statement (contd)


Income Statement Information
Example: Normalized EPS
Earnings per share (EPS) represents the portion of a company's earnings, net of taxes and preferred stock
dividends, but before equity dividends allocated to each share of the companys common stock
Basic EPS = Normalized Net income
Weighted average
basic shares outstanding

Basic EPS = $ 374.582 / 349.741


= $ 1.071

Diluted EPS = Normalized Net income


Weighted average
diluted shares outstanding

Diluted EPS = $ 374.582 / 353.447


= $ 1.059

68

Pro-forma Financials


Companies may acquire or divest businesses during the year

Pro-forma financials means restated financials of the company adjusted to give effect to any corporate actions so
as to reflect the continuing financials position of the company going forward

Reasons for calculating Pro-forma financials:

Acquisitions

Mergers

Divestitures

Spin offs

Capital Restructuring

69

Pro-forma Financials (contd)


How to identify whether Pro-forma financials to be done


Checking corporate actions (Source:


Company Press Releases, Announcements,
Stock Exchange press releases)

Table 1

Comparing historical financials vis--vis


forward estimates

Exceptionally high increasing trend in


forward financials as compared to
reported financials reflect the possibility of
a major acquisition (Table 1)

Similarly very steep decline in forward


financials as compared to reported
financials reflect the possibility of a
divestiture/ hive off/ spin-off, etc (Table 2)

FY10A

FY11E

FY12E

Revenues

1400

3000

3500

EBITDA

750

2300

2450

EBIT

600

2050

2180

FY10A

FY11E

FY12E

Revenues

1400

550

610

EBITDA

750

350

390

EBIT

600

310

380

Table 2

70

Pro-forma Financials (contd)


1. In case the pro forma financials
are reported by the company
use them for your analysis to
know the current position of the
company

71

Pro-forma Financials (contd)


2. If pro-forma financials are not reported by the company, calculate it by adding financials of the acquired company in
case of acquisition and exclude the financials of the divested business in case of a divestiture

Question.
On 15 Dec 10, ABC Ltd announced the acquisition of XYZ plc. The acquisition was completed on 12 February 2011.
Now, in case ABC does not release proforma financials adjusted for the acquisition of XYZ for its Fiscal year ended 31
Dec 10, then we may calculate the proforma financials of the combined entity by adding the financials of ABC and XYZ
for the fiscal year ended 31 Dec 10

72

Income Statement Information Indicative exceptional list


S. No.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30

Line item
Joint Venture
Discontinued operations
Restructuring cost / expenses
Expenses related to merger and acquisition transactions
Write down / Impairment of assets (both tangibles and intangibles
including goodwill)
Impairment of leasehold expenses
Loss / Gain on sale of tangible & intangible assets
Loss / Gain on sale of investments, other than marketable
Amortization of deferred compensation
Equity based compensation expense- stock options or warrants
Writing back of any provisions or reserves
Gain/Loss on sale of marketable securities
Income from associates / affiliates
Litigation settlement
Loss / Gain on sale or termination of an operation
Foreign currency exchange gain / loss
Accounting changes
Tax benefit from exercise of options
Provision for doubtful accounts
Amortization of debt issuance costs
Expenses associated with the Sarbanes Oxley Act
Rental income
Government grants or subsidies
Severance costs
Facilities consolidation
Gain / Loss on early extinguishment of debt
Early retirement costs
Redundancy costs
Donations
Amortization of Negative goodwill

Add Back
Y
Y
Y
Y

Tax adjustment
Comment
Y
Different treatment for different purposes
Y
No tax adjustment if net of tax
Y
Y

Y
Y
Y/N
Y
Y
Y/N
N
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y/N
Y
N
Y
Y
N
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y

Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y

No tax adjustment on Goodwill

Loss/ Gain on strategic investment is exceptional

Provision is exceptional or not

No tax adjustment if net of tax


Cumulative effect relating to exceptions is exceptional

N
N
Y
Y
N
Y
Y
Y
Y

To be excluded from EBIT calculations

Restructuring expense

Y
Y
N

Item can be treated as exceptional or normal depending upon the industry and analysis
73

LTM & Calendarization


Trailing Twelve Months (TTM / LTM)
A Graphical Representation

There will be times when the most recent company


financial statement is a quarterly report or a half-year
report. In such cases the results for the last twelve months/
trailing twelve months are derived.

LTM Results

LTM is calculated as under:

Reported Fiscal Year- annual report

Q1

Q2

Reported
previous year
accumulated 6
month results
LTM =

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Reported
accumulated
current year 6
month results

Fiscal year results


+
Results of current stub period
Results of corresponding prior stub period

Input financial results of the latest complete fiscal


year

Add financial results for the accumulated current


partial year result (stub period)

Deduct financial results for the corresponding stub


period (partial year) of the previous year (i.e. for the
same period but for the previous year

Remember to follow all the guidelines previously


discussed for income statement when inputting the
figures

74

LTM & Calendarization (contd)


Example 13: If LTM Sales need to be calculated (for a company with Dec FYE) as in March11, calculate the
LTM sales from the below mentioned data:
Dec 09

1,200

Dec 10

1,300

Mar 11

850

Mar 10

900

b)1,300

c) 1,250

a) 1,200

Dec 11E

1,400

d) 1,350

The correct answer is (c) !!!!!


LTM Sales as on Mar11 as:
Sales for Fiscal Year

= 1300 mn

Add: Current Stub ending Mar 11

= 850 mn

Less: Prior Stub ending Mar 10

= 900 mn

LTM Sales for Mar 11

= 1300 + 850-900 = 1250 mn

75

LTM & Calendarization (contd)


Forward Information Estimates


Valuation multiple can be calculated on both a latest twelve months (LTM) and a forecasted basis. Companies
trade most typically off expected future performance (analysts estimates)

Earnings estimates are obtained from various broker research reports or databases such as Bloomberg, Capital
IQ, Factset estimates. Adjust the earnings estimates for any exceptionals

For the purpose of deriving trading multiples, estimates are determined on a calendar year basis. This is done to
ensure consistency and enhance comparability within comps

In case of companies with fiscal year end other than December, the forecasted estimates are calendarized.
Calendarization is the process of prorating estimates that are available on fiscal year basis, to derive estimates on
a calendar year basis.

Consider the following example


Fiscal year end of company XYZ
Forecasted revenues for FY 2011
Forecasted revenues for FY 2012

30 September
$ 1,200 mn
$ 1,440 mn

Revenues for calendar year 2011 shall be determined as under:


Forecasted revenues for FY 2011 pro rated for 9 months
Add Forecasted revenues for FY 2012 pro rated for 3 months
Forecasted revenues for calendar year 2011 (Jan Dec 11)
76

$ 1200 x 9/12 = $ 900 mn


$ 1440 x 3/12 = $ 360 mn
$ 900 + $ 360 = $ 1,260 mn

LTM & Calendarization (contd)


Output currency
Find out the output currency in which the figures are to be reported. The output flows in the desired currency when
we input the relevant exchange rates ( i.e. Local currency to the desired currency). This is done to ensure
consistency and enhance comparability within comps
The following exchange rates are used for conversion:


Average exchange rate for income statement figures for the relevant fiscal years
Example: If the fiscal year of a company ends in September 2010 (Local currency being USD and Desired
currency being EUR) the exchange rate to be used will be USD - EUR average conversion rate from 1st
October 2009 to 30th September 2010

Period end exchange rate for balance sheet figures


In case the latest filling period ends on 30th Sep 2010, use USD-EUR conversion rate as on 30th Sep 2010

Current spot rate for forward estimates and market capitalization


USD-EUR spot rate as on the date of share price
Ques: Which of the following exchange rates will be used for converting Net debt outstanding as on 31 Dec 10
(FYE) for the comparable company analysis being done on 31 Mar 11
(a) Average exchange rate for FYE 31 Dec 10
(b) Spot exchange rate as on 31 Dec 10
(c) Spot exchange rate as on 31 Mar 11
(d) Average exchange rate for the quarter ended 31 Dec 10

77

Understanding Multiples


Multiples are ratios with equity value (Price) or enterprise value (EV) in the numerator and a standardizing factor
(Earnings, Sales, Book Value, etc.) in the denominator.
Price/Earnings (PE) and variants (PEG and Relative PE)
EV/EBIT
EV/EBITDA
EV/Cash Flow
EV/ Book Value of Assets
EV/Sales
P / Book value

Both the value (the numerator) and the standardizing factor ( the denominator) in multiples represent the same
claimholders in the firm
For instance, value of equity is standardized with equity earnings, and enterprise value (value of entire firm) is
standardized with EBITDA or book value of assets

For multiples to make sense, the standardizing factor (earnings, EBITDA, etc) must be computed using same
accounting rules across all firms being compared

78

Multiples Example 1
Example 1. Please calculate Sales, EBITDA, EBIT and P/E multiple:
(all figures in US$ mn except share price)
Share Price20.00

Correct answer is (b)!!!!!!

Market Cap10,000
Debt

250

Cash

400

Minority Interest

100

Enterprise Value = Market Cap + Debt +


Minority Interest Cash

EV = 10,000 + 250 + 100 400 = 9,950

Multiples:

Cash in Escrow account 50

Revenue = 9,950/2,500 = 3.98x

Sales

2,500

EBITDA = 9,950/(800+200) = 9.95x

EBIT

800

EBIT = 9,950/800 = 12.44x

D&A

200

P/E = 20.00/0.75 = 26.67x

EPS

0.75

EV/Sales=4.00x, EV/EBITDA=10.00x, EV/EBIT=12.50x, P/E=26.67x


EV/Sales=3.98x, EV/EBITDA=9.95x, EV/EBIT=12.44x, P/E=26.67x
EV/Sales=3.96x, EV/EBITDA=9.90x, EV/EBIT=12.38x, P/E=26.67x
EV/Sales=3.94x, EV/EBITDA=9.85x, EV/EBIT=12.31x, P/E=26.67x
79

Using Multiples
In order to use a multiple effectively to pass judgment on valuation of a firm:


Know how the multiple was computed


Same multiples can be computed differently. For instance, P/E can be computed as Price/LTM Earnings,
Price/Fiscal Year Earnings, or Price/Forward Earnings Estimate

Define the comparable asset universe of the multiple


It can be all firms in a sector, industry, entire market, or any subset thereof

Understand the fundamentals (growth, risk, profit margin, etc. ) that drive the multiple, and the nature of the
relationship between the multiple and each fundamental variable
These relationships explain the variations in multiple across firms
The relationship between a fundamental (like growth) and a multiple (such as PE) is seldom linear. For
example, if firm A has twice the growth rate of firm B, it will generally not trade at twice its PE ratio
It is impossible to properly compare firms on a multiple, if we do not know the nature of the relationship
between fundamentals and the multiple

Know the cross sectional distribution of the multiple across comparables


Multiples have no value when looked at in isolation

80

Price/Earnings (PE Ratio)




PE = Market Price per Share / Earnings per Share

There are a number of variants on the basic PE ratio, based upon how the price and the earnings are defined

Price is usually the current price


Though some like to use average price over last 6 months or year

EPS can have following variations


Time variants: EPS in most recent financial year (current), EPS in most recent four quarters (trailing), EPS
expected in next fiscal year or next four quarters (both called forward) or EPS in some future year
Primary, diluted or partially diluted EPS
EPS before or after extraordinary items
EPS measured using different accounting rules for outstanding shares (options expensed or not, pension fund
income counted or not, etc)

81

Multiples Example 2
Example 2. Calculate the Basic P/E, Diluted P/E, adjusted Basic P/E & adjusted Diluted P/E multiple with the
following information:
(all figures in US$ mn except share data)
Share price $10.00
Shares outstanding

1,000

Wtd. Avg. shares outstanding (Basic) 950


Wtd. Avg. shares outstanding (Diluted) 990
Revenue

5,000

Restructuring charges

1,000

One-time Insurance recoveries


Non-recurring charges
EBIT

500

300

1,500

Interest Expenses

500

Reported Net Income

500

(after adjusting tax @30%)


a) P/E 19.00x, Diluted P/E 19.80x, Adj. P/E 19.00x, Adj. Diluted P/E 19.80x
b) P/E 19.00x, Diluted P/E 19.80x, Adj. P/E 8.96x, Adj. Diluted P/E 9.34x
c) P/E 19.00x, Diluted P/E 19.80x, Adj. P/E 7.31x, Adj. Diluted P/E 7.62x
d) P/E 19.00x, Diluted P/E 19.80x, Adj. P/E 4.13x, Adj. Diluted P/E 4.30x
82

Multiples Example 2 (contd)


Correct answer is (b)!!!!!!!!!...
Reported net income = US$ 500 mn
Adjusted net income = Net income + Restructuring charges* - One-time Insurance recoveries* + Non-recurring
charges*
* Adjusted for tax @ 30%
Adjusted net income = 500 + (1,000 500 + 300)*(1-0.3) = US$ 1,060 mn
Reported Basic EPS = 500/950 = US$ 0.53

Reported Diluted EPS = 500/990 = US$ 0.51

Adjusted Basic EPS = 1,060/950 = US$ 1.12

Adjusted Diluted EPS = 1,060/990 = US$ 1.07

Reported Basic P/E = 10.00/0.53 = 19.00x

Reported Diluted P/E = 10.00/0.51 = 19.80x

Adjusted Basic P/E = 10.00/1.12 = 8.96 x

Adjusted Diluted P/E = 10.00/1.07 = 9.34x

83

PE Fundamentals


To understand the fundamentals, start with a basic equity discounted cash flow model
Dividend discount model for equity price

P0 =

DPS1
rg

Where, DPS1 is dividends per share next year, r is equity risk, and g is perpetual growth rate


The above relationship implies that, other things held equal:


Higher growth firms will have higher PE ratios than lower growth firms
Higher risk firms will have lower PE ratios than lower risk firms
Firms with lower reinvestment needs will have higher PE ratios than firms with higher reinvestment rates

84

Enterprise Value (EV) Ratios




While Price earnings ratios look at the market value of equity relative to earnings to equity investors, Enterprise
Value ratios look at total value of the firm relative to total operating earnings or free cash flows

The form of value to cash flow ratios that has the closest parallels in DCF valuation is the value to Free Cash
Flow to the Firm, which is defined as:
EV/FCFF
EV = Market Value of Equity + Market Value of Debt - Cash
FCFF = EBIT (1-t) - (Cap Ex - Depreciation) - Chg in Working Cap

85

Multiples Example 3
Example 3. What is the EV/EBITDA, EV/EBIT and EV/FCFF for the company:
(all figures in US$ mn)
Share Data

Income Statement

Share Price

$5.00

Revenue

Shares outstanding

1,000

COGS

270

SG&A

200

Balance Sheet

1,000

Cash

200

R&D

50

Debt

175

Restructuring expenses

30

Minority Interest

50

EBIT
Tax rate

450
30.0%

Cash Flow Statement


Depreciation

50

Amortization of intangibles

50

Capex

100

Change in Working Capital

(75)

a) EV/EBITDA = 9.14x, EV/EBIT = 11.17 & EV/FCFF = 12.88x


b) EV/EBITDA = 8.66x, EV/EBIT = 10.47 & EV/FCFF = 12.88x
c) EV/EBITDA = 8.66x, EV/EBIT = 10.47 & EV/FCFF = 12.23x
d) EV/EBITDA = 9.14x, EV/EBIT = 11.17 & EV/FCFF = 12.23x
86

Multiples Example 3 (contd)


Correct answer is (c) !!!!!
EV

= (5*1,000) + 175 + 50 200 = $ 5,025 mn

Adjusted EBIT

= Reported EBIT + Restructuring expenses

Adjusted EBIT

= 450 + 30 = $ 480 mn

Adjusted EBITDA

= Adj. EBIT + Depreciation + Amortization of intangibles

Adjusted EBITDA

= 480 + 50 + 50 = $ 580 mn

FCFF

= Adj. EBIT * (1 - tax rate) (Capex D&A) Change in working capital

FCFF

= 480 * (1-0.3) (100 50 50) (-75) = US$ 411 mn

EV/EBITDA= 5,025 / 580 = 8.6x


EV/EBIT

= 5,025 / 480 = 10.4x

EV/FCFF

= 5,025 / 411 = 12.2x


87

EV Ratio Alternatives


Most analysts find FCFF to complex or messy to use in multiples (partly because capital expenditures and
working capital have to be estimated) They use modified versions of the multiple with the following alternative
denominators such as EBIT or EBITDA
EBIT: pre-tax operating income
EBITDA: earning before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization

Assume that you have computed the value of a firm, using discounted cash flow models. Rank the following
multiples in the order of magnitude from lowest to highest?
EV/EBIT
EV/EBITDA
EV/FCFF

88

Why use EV/EBITDA?




It can be computed even for firms that are reporting net losses, since earnings before interest, taxes and
depreciation are usually positive

For firms in certain industries, such as cellular, which require a substantial investment in infrastructure and long
gestation periods, this multiple seems to be more appropriate than the price/earnings ratio

In leveraged buyouts, where the key factor is cash generated by the firm prior to all discretionary expenditures,
the EBITDA is the measure of cash flows from operations that can be used to support debt payment at least in
the short term

By looking at cash flows prior to capital expenditures, it may provide a better estimate of optimal value,
especially if the capital expenditures are unwise or earn substandard returns.

By looking at the value of the firm and cash flows to the firm it allows for comparisons across firms with different
financial leverage.

89

Other Common Ratios




EV/Sales: ratio of the market value of the firm to the sales

Price/Book Value: ratio of market value of equity to the book value of equity, i.e., the measure of shareholders
equity in the balance sheet
If the market value of equity refers to the market value of equity of common stock outstanding, the book value
of common equity should be used in the denominator
If there is more than one class of common stock outstanding, the market values of all classes (even the nontraded classes) needs to be factored in.

EV/Book Value: ratio of sum of market value of equity and market value of debt to sum of book value of equity
and book value of debt

90

Choosing Between Multiples




There are dozens of multiples that can be potentially used to value an individual firm. In addition, relative
valuation can be relative to a sector (or comparable firms) or to the entire market (using the regressions, for
instance). However, since there can be only one final estimate of value, there are three options:
Use a simple average of the valuations obtained using a number of different multiples
Use a weighted average of the valuations obtained using a number of different multiples
Choose one of the multiples and base your valuation on that multiple

The best approach is to choose a set of relevant multiples that make most sense for that industry or sector, given
how value is measured and created

91

Sector Multiples
Sector

Multiple Used

Rationale

Cyclical Manufacturing

PE, Relative PE (Firm PE Relative to


Market PE); Often with normalized
earnings

Stable industry with established


fundamentals

High Tech, High Growth

PEG (PE/Growth Rate)

Big differences in growth across firms

High Growth, No Earnings

EV/Sales, Price/Sales

Zero or negative earnings

Heavy infrastructure

EV/EBITDA

Capital intensive, with high


depreciation expense

Financial Services

Price/Book Value, PE

Operations for these companies is


borrowing and lending debt, we only
consider equity related ratios

Retailing

Price/Sales, EV/Sales

Low margins across board, Value is


predominantly measured with sales

92

Things to check
Numbers across the years are in line, both historicals and forecast


Double-Check for dips or sharp increases

Figure out the reasons for the differences


Can be because of exceptions item miss
Pro-forma numbers Mergers / divestitures
Different currency
Different company
Consolidation status specifically East Asian companies
Restatements
Accounting period changes; short periods

Any change of more than 10% has to be rechecked

Establish the reasons for difference in multiples

93

Obvious errors


P/E multiple 0.1x or 1000x

EV/Sales multiple of 500x

EBITDA multiple more than EBIT multiple

Options more than outstanding shares

Negative EV with multiples

52 week high lower than current price

Date of 52 week high/low more than a year old

No estimates after filing for company

Sales of dipping exceptionally low

No calendarisation for non-US company

EPS more than a Pound

94

Copal Partners

Comparable Transactions Analysis


(Transactions Comps)

95

Index
Table of Content


Introduction

97

Transactions Overview

98

M&A Deals Identification

99

Transaction Value

100

Type of Consideration

101

Target Financials Sources

107

Target Financials LTMs

109

Premium Analysis

110

Amendment of Deal Terms

111

96

Introduction


Transaction Comps is a valuation tool to look at the precedent transactions in a specific sector

Precedent transaction comps is the analysis of M&A Deals which have already taken place in past.

It involves valuing the target company based on relative prices (or multiples) paid for similar business in the past

The financial ratios and values analyzed vary from project to project, depending on the industry and information
available

A standard transaction comp contains operational statistics containing:

Transaction overview (Announcement and closing date, Target name, Acquirer name)

Financial performance parameters such as revenue, EBIT, EBITDA and EPS

These inputs define the output Multiple sheet containing various Enterprise Value (EV) multiples

Unlike trading comps, precedent transactions multiple contain an element of control premium paid by the acquirer
to gain control over target company

97

Transaction overview
Announcement Date


This is the day the transaction is announced by the company. The source should be the official company press
release/ stock exchange announcements/ Merger documents etc

Amendment Date / Rank Date




The date on which company revises its original offer. The source should be the official company press release/
Merger documents etc. In case of any amendment in deal, always new offer is considered for analysis.

Target Name


Company or the division of any company being acquired

Acquirer


Company that is purchasing the Target

Date Completed


Date the company announced that the transaction was successfully closed

Source should be acquirer's/ sellers/ targets press release or filings after the date of close of the deal

In case that the transaction has not closed, consider it Pending

* Note: Terminated deals are generally excluded from analysis, unless specifically required

98

M&A Deals Identification




M&A Deal Run means identifying a list of comparable precedent (which have already been done in past)
transactions in specific sector or industry for valuation or acquisition purposes. For Deal Run all targets should
belong to same industry.

Identifying Industry / Sector / Product for which comparable deals is required .

Specify Region / Country target companies should belong to. For e.g. searching out deals in Beverages Industry
on Global level or restricting search to Asia Pacific region or may be Europe only.

Other criterions can be considering a set Deal Value range. Such as deals should have Deal Value ranging from
US$100 mn to US$1,500 mn for a particular time period such as last 5 years.

There are various sources available for extracting Deal Run such as Thomson One Banker, Bloomberg.

After doing the preliminary search like understanding industry or the product for which past deals are required,
check various sources mentioned above for M&A Deal Run by doing industry specific or company specific search
and extract list of comparable past deals for transaction comps valuation.

99

Transaction Value
Offer Value is similar to Equity Value
- also called Total Equity Purchase Price

Offer Value =
(Total Shares Outstanding* x Purchase Price per Share)

*Total Shares Outstanding =


Basis Shares + In-the-money-options + Shares from in-the-money convertible securities)

Transaction Value =
Offer Value + Total Debt* + Pref. Stock + Minority Interest Cash & Equiv.

*Total Debt excludes convertible securities that are assumed to convert into common shares (do not double count)

100

Types of Consideration
Consideration can be paid to the Target as:


Cash consideration per target share

Acquirer share per target share based on pre-determined exchange ratio

Lump-sum cash consideration

Lump-sum stock issued by the acquirer

Combination of cash and stock consideration (either lump-sum or per share stock and cash)

*There may be other forms of consideration like issue of loan notes or other debt instruments by the acquirer or asset swaps

101

Types of Consideration (contd)


I. Lump sum cash consideration
The acquiror might pay a lump sum cash to acquire the target
Example 1.
Piramed acquired by Roche
Slough, UK, 15 April 2009 Piramed Limited (Piramed), a privately owned UK biotechnology company, today announces that it has
signed a definitive agreement with Roche that will result in Piramed being fully acquired for an upfront cash payment of US$160 million
plus a milestone payment of US$15 million, which is due upon the commencement of Phase II clinical trials for the companys oncology
programme. The final transaction value will be adjusted by the net cash balance remaining upon closing. Closing of the transaction is
subject to standard conditions including review by anti-trust authorities.

Here equity value would be US$175 mn (160 mn+15mn) Is it correct!!!!!!

No!!!!!

The Equity Value of the transaction is 160 mn

* Milestone payments are contingent considerations, so they are generally not considered as part of Equity Value

102

Types of Consideration (contd)


II. Lump sum Stock consideration
For Lump sum stock consideration, the Equity Value can be calculated as follows:
Number of acquirer shares issued X Acquirer's share price 1 day prior to date of announcement /
% stake acquired
Example 2.
How will we calculate the Equity Value in this case??
Equity Value =
Number of share issued as consideration = 24.75 mn
X Concord share price as on October 8, 2008 = $34.50
/ % stake acquired i.e. 100%
Equity Value = USD 854 mn

Concord EFS and Star Systems to Merge


MEMPHIS, Tenn.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Oct. 9, 2008
Concord EFS, Inc. (Nasdaq: CEFT), a leading electronic
commerce processor, and Star Systems, Inc., the largest PINsecured payments network in the U.S., today announced that
they have entered into a merger agreement pursuant to which
Star Systems would become a wholly-owned subsidiary of
Concord. Concord currently owns the MAC(R) EFT network,
which provides services to over 3,300 financial institutions
primarily in the Northeast and Midwest. The STAR (sm)
network has 3,500 financial institution members, and operates
primarily in 22 states in the West, Southwest, and Southeast,
plus the District of Columbia. In connection with the closing of
the merger, Concord will issue 24.75 million shares of common
stock for all of the outstanding shares of Star Systems' common
stock.
Other Information
Concord share price as on October 8, 2008 = $34.50
103

Types of Consideration (contd)


III. Cash consideration per target share
In case acquirer pays cash consideration per target share, the Equity Value can be calculated as follows:
Target share outstanding as on date of announcement X Cash consideration per share

Example 3.
Calculate the Equity Value in this case??
Equity Value =
Navteq shares outstanding = 98.8 mn
+ Dilution impact of options = 4.54 mn
Total Diluted shares outstanding =103.34 mn
Offer price per share = $78.00
Equity value = $ 103.74 * 78 = $8,060 mn

Nokia to Acquire NAVTEQ


The combined entity would create a leading global player in the
fast growing location based services market NAVTEQ to
support existing customers as before
CHICAGO, Oct. 1 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Nokia and
NAVTEQ today announced a definitive agreement for Nokia to
acquire NAVTEQ. Under the terms of the agreement, Nokia will
pay $78 in cash for each share of NAVTEQ including
outstanding options for an aggregate purchase price of
approximately $8.1 billion (euro 5.7 billion), or approximately
$7.7 billion (euro 5.4 billion) net of NAVTEQ existing cash
balance. The acquisition has been approved by the board of
directors of each company and is subject to customary closing
conditions including regulatory approvals and NAVTEQ
shareholders' approval.

Other Information
Navteq shares outstanding as on October 1, 2007= 98.8 mn
Dilution impact of options = 4.54 mn shares
104

Types of Consideration (contd)


IV. Acquirer share issued as consideration per target share
The Equity Purchase Price in this case would be:
Target share outstanding as on date of announcement X Exchange ratio X Acquirer's share price 1 day prior to
date of announcement
Example 4.
State Street to Acquire Investors Financial Services Corporation
05/02/2007
BOSTON, February 5, 2007 State Street Corporation (NYSE: STT), the world's leading provider of financial services to institutional
investors, announced today that it has signed a definitive agreement to acquire Investors Financial Services Corporation (NASDAQ:
IFIN). In the transaction, Investors Financial Services Corporation shareholders will receive 0.906 shares of State Street common stock
for each share of Investors Financial Services Corporation common stock, based upon the closing price of State Street common stock
on February 2, 2007

Calculate the Equity value when


IFS Shares outstanding as on date of announcement = 65.99 mn
Dilution impact of options
= 2.98 mn
State Street share price as on 2 Feb 07
= $71.75
Equity value =
IFS Shares outstanding as on date of announcement + Dilution impact of options = 65.99 mn + 2.98 mn = 68.97 mn
Equity Value = Total Diluted shares outstanding X Exchange ratio State Street share price as on 2 Feb 07 (last trading day
prior to announcement)
Equity value = 68.97*0.906*71.75 = $ 4,483.43 mn
105

Types of Consideration (contd)


V. Cash and stock consideration
The equity value would be combination of cash and stock offered
Example 5.
Thomson and Reuters in Discussions to Form Global Leader in Business-Business Information Services
STAMFORD, Conn. and LONDON, May 7, 2007
The boards of The Thomson Corporation (Thomson) and Reuters Group PLC (Reuters) confirm that they are in discussions for the
combination of their two businesses. Both boards believe there is a powerful and compelling logic for the combination which would
create a global leader in the business-to-business information markets. Each Reuters share would be entitled to 352.5 pence per share
in cash and an equity participation based on an equalization ratio of 0.1600 Thomson shares for each Reuters share.

Other information:
Reuters shares o/s as on May 4, 2007

1,256.56 mn

Dilution impact of options


Thomson share price as on 3 May 07
GBP-CAD exchange rate as on 3 May 07

16.05 mn shares
CAD 48.46
2.19795

Equity value = (Reuters Shares o/s + Dilution Impact of Options) X (Thomson Share price one day prior to
announcement X Exchange Ratio + Cash per share)
= (1,256.56+16.05)*((48.46/2.19795*0.16)+3.525)
Equity value = GBP 8,975 mn

106

Target Financials Sources


Financials in case Target is Public company


We can divide transaction comps in three sections viz basic transaction data, deal consideration and financial
multiples.

Transaction comps look out for the status of target company as on the Date of Announcement i.e. what was the
EV and other relevant multiples as on that date.

For Multiple calculations, please cross check the financials or filings to be used.

Multiples vary and depend from industry to industry for which analysis is being conducted.

For calculating financials, use the latest filings available just before the Date of Announcement. For example, if
DOA is 25 April 09, consider AR Dec 08 and IR Mar 09 filings. Also, please check whether calculating LFY or LTM
multiples. The former filings will be used for calculating LTM multiples. In case of LFY multiples use IR Mar 09 for
EV calculations and consider only AR for Income Statement.

In case of Amendment, consider the latest filings available as per the Date of Amendment and not the initial date.
For Examples DOA is 17 May 08, later on deal got revised on 21 July 08, consider AR Dec 07 and IR June 08 for
financials and not IR Mar 08.

Calculation and adjustments of EV and Income Statement Normalization is similar as it is done for Trading
Comps.

107

Target Financials Sources (contd)


In case the Target is a Public company


Offer Document

Annual Reports and Interim Reports prior to date of announcement

Press Releases

Stock Exchanges if target or acquirer is listed entity

In case The Target is a Private company or Unit / Division of a listed company




Offer Document

Annual Reports and Interim Reports prior to date of announcement

Acquirors / Seller / Targets press releases

Stock exchange announcements

8K / 8KA (in case Target/ Acquiror / Seller is an US Company)

Seller / Acquirors filings

Databases (Bloomberg/ FactSet / CapitalIQ / Reuters)

Brokers Reports

General Web search

108

Target Financials LTMs


Refers to the last twelve months financials of the target prior to the announced date. LTM is calculated as under:


Financial results of the latest complete fiscal year

+ financial results for the accumulated current partial year result (stub period)

- financial results for the corresponding stub period (partial year) of the previous year (i.e. for the same period but
for the previous year)

+/- extraordinary / non recurring items


LTM Results
LTM =

Fiscal year results


+
Results of current stub period
Results of corresponding prior stub period

Reported Fiscal Year- annual report

Q1

Q2

Reported
previous year
accumulated 6
month results

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Reported
accumulated
current year 6
month results

109

Premium Analysis
Premium (%) = (Offer Price / Target Price) 1
Generally acquirer would offer to acquire the target a value more than its current trading price. The excess of offer
price over current trading price is the control premium for the target


Premium may depend on the strategic fit or the expected synergies

Use unaffected stock price of target for calculating the premium i.e. prior to announcement of possible acquisition

Example 6.
On May 5, 2010, A announced to acquire B for a cash consideration of USD 15 per share. Bs share price as on May
4, 2010 was USD 12. Here premium paid by the acquiror is 25%
But in this case had there been some rumor in the market since February 5, 2010, and Bs share price as on
February 4, 2010 was USD 10, then premium should be 50%
Case 1. Premium = (Offer Price / Target Price on last trading day prior to announcement) 1
= ($15-$12)/$12 - 1
= 25%
Case 2. Premium = (Offer Price / Target Price on last trading day prior to rumor in public) 1
= ($15-$10)/$10 - 1
= 50%

110

Amendment of Deal Terms




In case deal terms gets amended after initial announcement, use final deal terms for valuation

Targets LTM financials will be taken with respect to date of announcement of final deal terms

Example:
On May 5, 2010, A announced to acquire B for a cash consideration of 0.5 A shares per B share. On July 6, 2010,
the consideration was increased to 0.55 A shares per B share and further increased to 0.60 A shares on October
6, 2010.
Share price as on relevant dates are as under:
A

May 4, 2010

$18

$7.50

July 5, 2010

$20

$8.00

October 5, 2010

$19

$11.00

What should be the offer price per share?


$11.40
What is one day premium paid by the acquirer?
(a) 42.5%

(b) 52.0%

(c) 3.6%

111

(d) 44.0%

Copal Partners

DCF Valuation

112

Index
Table of Content


Time value of money

114

Cost of capital

127

Free Cash Flows (FCF)

137

Sensitivity Analysis

138

DCF-based valuation

139

Terminal Value

145

Equity Value from Firm Value

148

Advantages and Disadvantages of DCF

149

113

Time Value of Money


Lets review the three main concepts used in DCF-based valuation


Time value of money

Cash flows

Present value (PV)

Net present value (NPV)

Perpetuities

Discount rate

Cost of Capital

Cost of Equity

CAPM

Cost of Debt

WACC

Free Cash Flow (FCF)

Free cash flow to firm (FCFF)

Free cash flow to equity (FCFE)

114

Time Value of Money (contd)







Which would you take?


Rs. 2 Crore today?
Rs. 3 Crore in exactly 5 years?
Assume again:
Both payments are riskless i.e. it is 100% certain that you will be paid once you make a choice
Assume also that:

Bank offers 10% interest on 5 year deposits

Value of Rs. 2 Crore in 5 years: 2 * (1 + 10%)5 = 3.22 Crore


Conclusion: Rs. 2 Crore today is greater than Rs. 3 Crore in exactly 5 years!

115

Time Value of Money (contd)




But how much is Rs. 3 Crore in 5 years worth today?

Alternatively, how much money deposited at 10% today will equal Rs. 3 Crore in 5 years?

Calculation:

X * (1 + 10%)5 = 3
3
X=
(1 + 10%)5
X = 1.86 Crore

Crore

The amount of Rs. 1.86 Crore is known as the Present Value of Rs. 3 Crore in 5 years

116

Present Value


A cashflow is time-dated money

It consists of an amount (in some currency), a date (or a point in time), and a sign (positive or negative)

In order to compare different cashflows, we convert all future cashflows to their present values

Use:

PVt =0 =

Ct =i
(1 + rt =i ) i

PVt=0 = present value (at time zero)


Ct=i = cashflow in the future (in ith year)
rt=i = interest rate for payments in ith year (annualized) also called discount rate


A simplification of PV formula

Assume r is same for all time intervals (years)

PVt =0 =

Ct = i
(1 + r ) i

117

Present Value (contd)


Example 1: One future cashflow


What is the present value of US $100,000 received in year 10 if the discount rate (for ten-year horizons) is 12%

$100,000
Cash Flow Diagram:

PV = ??

Present Value Calculation:

PVt =0 =

Year 5

100,000
= 32,197.32
10
(1 + 12%)

118

Year 10

Present Value (contd)


Example 2: Effect of discount rate


What would you rather have:

$10,000 today or $12,000 in exactly 2 years

Scenario 1: Discount rate = 8%

Present value to have $12,000 in 2 years is:

PV [$12,000; Yr 2; 8%] =

12,000
= $10288.0
(1 + 8%) 2

Value of $10,0000 in 2 years is:

FV [$10,000; Yr 2; 8%] = 10000 * (1 + 8%) 2 = $11664.0

In this case, take $12,000 in 2 year

119

Present Value (contd)


Example 2: Effect of discount rate


What would you rather have:

$10,000 today or $12,000 in exactly 2 years

Scenario 2: Discount rate = 10%

Present value to have $12,000 in 2 years is:

PV [$12,000; Yr 2; 10%] =

12,000
= $9917.3
(1 + 10%)2

Value of $10,0000 in 2 years is:

FV [$10,000; Yr 2; 10%] = 10000 * (1 + 10%) 2 = $12100.0

In this case, take $10,000 today

120

Present Value (contd)


Example 3: Multiple future cash flows


What is the present value of $50,000 received in year 5 and $100,000 received in year 10 if the discount rate is
12%

$100,000
$50,000
Cash Flow Diagram:
PV = ??

Year 5

Present Value Formula:

PV = PVt =0 (C1...CT ) =
t =1

Present Value Calculation:

PV =

Year 10

Ct
(1 + rt ) t

50,000
100,000
+
= 60568.67
(1 + 12%)5 (1 + 12%)10

121

Net Present Value




Net present value combines the initial investment (usually made at time zero) and the PV of expected future cash
flows
T

NPV = C0 +
t =1

Ct
(1 + rt ) t

A positive NPV is a key criteria for a sound investment

What is the NPV for the following set of cash flows (assume r = 8%)

C0 = -$100, C1 = $10, C2 = $10, C3= $110

NPV =

100 +

10
10
110
+
+
= 5.15
(1 + 8%) (1 + 8%) 2 (1 + 8%)3

122

Perpetuity


A perpetual stream of equal cash flows received at equal time intervals is known as a perpetuity

Present value of a perpetuity

C
C
C
C
+
+
+ .....
1
2
3
(1 + r ) (1 + r ) (1 + r )
(1 + r )
C
=
Sum of infinite geometric series
r

PV =

Example 1: What is the PV of $10 received in perpetuity, starting in one year? Assume discount rate of 10%

PV = $10/0.1 = $100

123

Perpetuity (contd)


Example 2: What is the PV of $10 received in perpetuity, starting in 6 years? Assume discount rate of 10%

$10
Cash Flow Diagram:

$10

$10

PV = ??

$10
..

Value of perpetuity at Year 5:

PVt =5 =

10
= 100
0.1

PV today (t=0):

PVt =0 =

PVt =5
100
=
= 62.09
5
5
(1 + r )
(1.1)

124

Growing Perpetuity


Example 3: What is the PV of a perpetual cash flow starting at $10 in Year 1 and growing at 5% each year
subsequently? Assume discount rate of 10%

C
C (1 + g ) C (1 + g ) 2
C (1 + g )
PV =
+
+
+ ...
(1 + r )1 (1 + r ) 2
(1 + r )3
(1 + r )
C
=
(r - g)

C = first cashflow
g = Growth rate of cashflows
r = discount rate

For our case, PV = 10/(0.1-0.05) = $200

125

Discount Rate


Discount rate used for NPV calculations is the rate of return on the best alternate investment with comparable risk

It is also called the hurdle rate or the opportunity cost of capital

It often comes from the return on a traded asset such as stocks, bonds, etc. with comparable risk.

Risk-less cash flows are discounted using the current rate for US government bonds or bills as they are
considered riskless

126

Cost of Capital


Corporate capital budgeting decisions are based on expected return on investment

Investment examples include building a new plant, launching a new product, or acquiring another company

Cost of Capital is the required return necessary to make a capital investment worthwhile

Capital is provided as either debt or equity, hence Cost of capital includes Cost of Debt and Cost of Equity

Cost of Capital = Weighted average of Cost of Debt and Cost of Equity

The Cost of Capital determines the optimal way for the company to raise money (through a stock issue,
borrowing, or a mix of the two)

127

Cost of Equity


The cost of equity is the rate of return that investors require to make an equity investment in a firm

There are two approaches to estimate the cost of equity

Dividend-growth model

Risk and return model

Dividend growth model specifies the cost of equity to be the sum of the dividend yield and the expected growth in
earnings

Useful for mature companies that distribute most of the earnings to shareholders as dividends

Risk and return model, on the other hand, tries to answer two questions:

How do you measure risk?

How do you translate this risk measure into a risk premium?

We will use Risk and return model to compute Cost of Equity

128

CAPM


CAPM or Capital Asset Pricing Model is a risk and return based model for computing expected return on equity
(Cost of Equity to the firm)

According to CAPM, expected return of a security or a portfolio equals the return on a risk-free security plus a risk
premium

Re = Rf + b (Rm- Rf)
 Rf: Rate of return for a risk-free security
 Beta b: measure of equity risk relative to market portfolio
 Rm: Expected return on market portfolio (average risk investment)
 Rm-Rf: Market risk premium

Example: Compute the expected return on IBM stock, given that risk-free rate is 4%, IBM beta is 1.4, and market
risk premium is 5.5%

Re [IBM] = 4% + 1.4*5.5% = 11.70%

Implies that in the long-term, investors expect to earn 11.70% return on IBM stock

129

CAPM Inputs


Rf: Riskfree rate

Usually the short-term US Govt. T-bill rate or the long-term US Govt. Security rate, since they have no default
risk

The choice between short-term rate and long-term rate depends on the investment horizon

Firm valuations are over a long-term horizon, so use long-term US Govt. Bond rate for firm valuation

Beta b: measure of equity risk relative to market portfolio

= 1 ... Average risk investment (same as Market Portfolio)

> 1 ... Above Average risk investment

< 1 ... Below Average risk investment

= 0 ... Riskless investment

130

CAPM Inputs (contd)


Computing Beta:


Approach 1: Regress the historical return on equity (Re) with historical market portfolio return (Rm)
Regression output::

Re = a + b Rm

Where a is the intercept and b, the slope of regression, is the beta of stock and measures the riskiness of the
stock.

This approach has several issues:


 High standard error
 Beta is based on historical business and leverage of the firm, either or both of which may be different in the
present

Approach 2: Bottom-up approach

Find out the businesses that a firm operates in

Find the unlevered betas of other firms in these businesses

Take a weighted (by sales or operating income) average of these unlevered betas

Lever up using the firms debt/equity ratio

131

Estimating Cost of Equity




Lets estimate Intels Cost of Equity

Intel equity beta: 1.36

Current risk-free rate: 4.5% (long-term US Government Bond Rate)

Risk premium = 5.5% (Historical value)

Expected return on equity using CAPM:


 Re = 4.5% + 1.36*5.5% = 11.98%

Hence, Intel needs to make at least 11.98% as return for their equity investors. This is the hurdle rate for
projects, when investments are analyzed from an equity standpoint. In other words, Intels Cost of Equity is
11.98%

132

Cost of Debt and its Estimation




Cost of Debt is

the market rate of interest at which the company can borrow today

corrected for the tax benefit it gets for interest payments


Cost of debt = Rd = Interest rate on debt (1 - tax rate)

Caution: Cost of debt is not the interest rate at which the company obtained the old debt that it has on its books

Use one of the following to estimate cost of debt

If the firm has long-term bonds that are traded, use the current yield to maturity on firms bonds as the interest
rate in cost of debt calculation

If the firm is rated, use the rating and a typical default spread on bonds with that rating to estimate the interest
rate

If the firm has recently borrowed long-term from a bank, use the interest rate on the borrowing

If the firm is not rated and no other information about recent bank loans is available, use interest coverage
ratio (EBIT/Interest expense) of the firm to estimate a rating and use the default spread on bonds with that
rating to estimate interest rate

Quick (and dirty) computation of cost of debt: current interest expense/book value of total debt

NOTE: The cost of debt has to be estimated in the same currency as the cost of equity and the cash flows

133

Cost of Capital (WACC)




Market Value of Equity (E) should include the following

Market Value of Shares outstanding

Market Value of Warrants outstanding

Market Value of Conversion Option in Convertible Bonds

Market Value of Debt is more difficult to estimate because few firms have only publicly traded debt. There are two
solutions:

Assume book value of debt is equal to market value

Estimate the market value of debt from the book value?

134

Cost of Capital (WACC) (contd)




A firms Cost of Capital is calculated by taking a weighted average of the firms cost of equity and cost of debt.

WACC represents the investors opportunity cost for investing in a particular business instead of others with a
similar risk.

Cost of capital so computed is called Weighted Average Cost of Capital or WACC

WACC =

E
D
* Re + * Rd (1 Tc )
V
V

Re = cost of equity
Rd = cost of debt
E = market value of the firm's equity
D = market value of the firm's debt
V=E+D
E/V = percentage of financing that is equity
D/V = percentage of financing that is debt
Tc = corporate tax rate

WACC is used as the discount rate for all cash flows with risk that is similar to that of the overall firm

135

Cost of Capital (WACC) (contd)




Example: Compute IBMs WACC, given:


Re = cost of equity = 11.7%
Rd = cost of debt = 8%
E = market value of the firm's equity = $150 billion
D = market value of the firm's debt = $50 billion
Assume Tc = 35%
V = E+D = $200 billion

WACC =

E
D
* Re + * Rd (1 Tc )
V
V

150
50
*11.70% +
* 8%(1 35%)
200
200
= 10.08%

WACC[ IBM ] =

IBMs Cost of Capital: 10.08%

136

Free Cash Flow FCF




Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) is the cash flow that is generated by companys operations and available to all
the companys capital providers (investors), including both debt and equity

Computed as operating income less expenses, taxes, and changes in net working capital and investments

Measures company's profitability after all expenses and reinvestments

FCFF is also equal to the sum of CFs paid to or received from all the capital providers (interest, dividends, new
borrowing, debt repayments and so on)

FCFF = CF available to all investors = EBIT taxes increases in working capital +/- deferred taxes + D&A - Capex

Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE) is the portion of FCFF that is available to companys equity investors.

This is a measure of how much cash can be paid to the equity shareholders of the company after all expenses,
reinvestment and debt repayment

FCFE = CF available to equity investors only = Earnings after interest and taxes increases in working capital +/deferred taxes + D&A - Capex

137

Sensitivity Analysis
Sensitivity Analysis aim at showing the value impact if changing individual key assumptions or the main value
drivers. Following is an example of valuation sensitivity to assumptions regarding cost of capital and terminal
growth.

Few factors that are subject to sensitivities are:

Sensitivity Table

Revenue growth, price , Volume

EBIT, EBITDA, PE Margins

Capex, Cost of Capital

There are many lot many other potential sensitivity variables. However, the focus on those factors which have the
greatest uncertainty or the greatest value impact.

138

DCF based Valuation




DCF-based valuation analysis discounts projected (expected) cash flows of a firm with an appropriate discount
rate to determine firms value in present time

The fundamental choices for DCF-based valuation

Cash flows to Discount


 Free Cash Flows to Equity (FCFE)
 Free Cash Flows to Firm (FCFF)

Discount Rate
 Cost of Equity
 Cost of Capital (WACC)

Base Year Numbers


 Current Earnings / Cash Flows
 Normalized Earnings / Cash Flows

139

DCF based Valuation (contd)


Firm / Equity Valuation Overview


There are two approaches to valuation: A firm can be valued from two different perspectives

Firm valuation (Enterprise Value or Transaction Value) represents the value of all capital invested in business
EV = Equity Value + Net Debt

Equity valuation (Market Value or Offer Value) Value attributable to owners of the company after paying debt.

Firm valuation vs. equity valuation


Firm
Firm valuation values the entire
business including both debt
and equity claims thereby giving
value of the company to debt
holders and shareholders.

Debt (D)

Assets
(A)

Claim holders
Equity (E)

A = D+E
Equity valuation values just the equity claim in
business i.e. value of a company to shareholders

140

DCF based Valuation (contd)


Equity vs. Firm Valuation


Equity Valuation: value just the equity stake in the business

Obtained by discounting expected cash-flows to equity (FCFE),


i.e., the residual cash-flows after meeting all operating
expenses, tax obligations, interest and principal payments, and
reinvestment needed for future growth

Discount rate used is the Cost of Equity

t =n

ValueEquity =
t =1

t =n

Firm valuation: value the entire business, including, besides


equity, the other claimholders in the firm

Obtained by discounting expected cash-flows to the firm (FCFF),


i.e., the residual cash-flows after meeting all operating
expenses, taxes, and reinvestments needed for future growth,
but prior to debt payments

Discount rate used is the weighted average cost of capital


(WACC)

141

ValueFirm =
t =1

FCFEt
(1 + Re )t

FCFFt
(1 + WACC ) t

n = life of the company

DCF based Valuation (contd)


DCF-based Firm Valuation
Common steps:


Compute firms WACC

WACC can be in nominal terms or real terms, depending upon whether the cash flows are nominal or real

WACC can vary from year to year depending on changes in cost of equity or cost of debt

Obtain latest financial statements for the firm

You may want to normalize the earnings and cash flows

Project future earnings and cash flows (FCFF) for 5-7 years by estimating an expected growth rate in sales and
earnings during this period

Growth rate may also vary from year to year

For fast growth companies, estimate when the firm will reach stable growth and what characteristics (risk & cash
flow) it will have when it does

For mature companies, estimate a nominal growth rate for cash flows beyond the projection period. This is usually
equal to the growth rate of the economy
142

DCF based Valuation (contd)


DCF-based Firm Valuation

Value of Firm
=
Present value of operating FCFF during explicit forecast period (5-7 years)
+
Present value of cash flow after explicit forecast period (Terminal Value)

143

DCF based Valuation (contd)


Computing FCFF


Start with EBIT


Less: Taxes on EBIT
Plus or minus: change in deferred taxes
= NOPLAT (Net Operating Profits less adjusted taxes)
Add: Depreciation and Amortization
Plus or minus: Change in Working Capital
Less: Capital Expenditure
=Operating Free Cash Flow
Plus or minus: Cash flow from Non Operating Investments
=Cash Flow available to investors (FCFF)

NOTE : FCFF does not include any of the financing related cash flows such as interest expense or dividends
n

PVFCFF =
t =1

FCFFt
(1 + WACC ) t
144

Terminal Value


Two ways for estimating terminal value:

Assume that the firm will generate the last forecast year cash flows in perpetuity

Can also assume a modest growth rate (usually equal to the GDP growth rate)

Terminal Value =

Cn (1 + g )
WACC g

Cn = FCFF in the last year of forecast


g = cash flow growth rate in perpetuity

Compute terminal value as a multiple of EBITDA in the last year of forecast

Use current EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate terminal value

Terminal Value =

EBITDAn *

EVcurrent
EBITDAcurrent

145

n = last year of forecast

DCF Worksheet Example

146

Cash Flow Considerations




Capital Expenditures:

Treatment of R&D expenses

Treatment of operating leases

Acquisitions

Other capitalizable expenses

Normalization of earnings and cash flows

Treatment of one-time/unusual/restructuring expenses

Tax rate:

Marginal tax rate vs. Effective tax rate?

Treatment for Minority holdings, Preferred Equity or Pension Obligations

Options, Warrants, and equity value portion of convertible debt

Revenue and earnings growth rate

147

Equity Value from Firm Value


Steps:


Compute present value of all operating cash flows during projected years

Add: Present value of terminal value


Add: Present value of minority interests

Total value of firm

Less: Value of outstanding debt


Less: Value of outstanding options
Less: Value of outstanding warrants
Less: Value of equity portion of convertible debt

Total Equity Value

Divide by: Number of number of outstanding shares

Value of equity per share

148

Advantages and Disadvantages of DCF Approach




Advantages

Theoretically, the most sound method of valuation.

Since it provides intrinsic value as opposed to market value, hence less influenced by temperamental market
conditions economic or other factors

Can value components of business or synergies separately from the business

Very helpful to capture businesses in transition

It allows a detailed assessment of alternative strategies through formulation of alternative cash flow
projections.

Disadvantages:

Present value obtained are sensitive to assumptions and methodology

Terminal value represents a significant portion of value and is highly sensitive to valuation assumptions.

Need realistic projected financial statements over at least one business cycle or until cash flows are
normalized.

Sales growth rate, margins, investment in working capital, capital expenditures and terminal value
assumptions along with the discount rate assumptions are key to the valuation.

149

Copal Partners

Pitchbook Building

150

Introduction & Types of Pitch book




What Does Pitch book Mean?


A sales book created by an investment bank/firm that details the main attributes of the firm. The pitch book is
used by the firm's sales force to aid it with selling products and issues, and generating new clients.

Usually there can be the following types of book, depending on the purpose :
A. Market Overviews / Bank Introductions: Introducing the bank and giving updates to potential clients.
B. Deal Pitches: Sell-side M&A, buy-side M&A, IPOs, debt issuances, and so on
C. Management Presentations: Used for pitching to the existing client
D. Execution Pitch books: Prepared by the bank for a particular client:

151

Pitch book Building


A. Market Overviews / Bank Introductions: generally small in size, showcasing the banks credentials, having
the following elements
 Slides showing the banks organization, the different departments
 Several tombstone slides that show recent deals the bank has done in a particular sector.
 Along with these, there can be league table slides that show how the bank ranks in different areas like
tech M&A deals, equity issuances, and so on
 Market overview slides showing recent trends and deals in the market and data on how similar banks
(comps) have been performing lately.
B. Deal Pitches: These pitch books are long and most complex, and are basically focused on idea generation,
they talk about all the aspects of the selected deals/deal. These are in response to invitations from the clients.
e.g. RFPs & RFIs (colloquially called beauty parade)
 Bank Overview: Update about the bank and the introduction of deal team
 Situation / Positioning Overview : Information on what makes the company attractive. It also includes the
update about the market
 Preliminary Valuation analysis: Valuation of the company using various valuation techniques discussed
before
 Then you show individual methodologies such as public comps, precedent transactions, and a DCF.
 Primarily based on public information
 Potential Buyers: an exhaustive list of everyone who could potentially buy this company, strategic acquirers
(normal companies) and financial sponsors (PE firms and hedge funds).
 It contains a summary slide in the beginning followed by detailed descriptions (company / asset profiles)
afterward.
 Summary / Recommendations: The banks advice and recommendation to the company.
152

Pitch book Building


C. Management Presentations: These pitch books created for real clients instead of prospective clients are
less quantitative and are more focused on the clients strengths. The common elements of this book would be
the following:
 Executive Summary / Company Highlights
 Market Overview
 Products & Services
 Sales & Marketing
 Customers
 Expansion Opportunities
 Organization Chart
 Historical & Projected Financial Performance
D. Execution Pitch books: These books are prepared only once the bank has been mandated by a particular
client(company):
 Highly focused on ongoing deals
 Primarily based on the primary information given by the client (company)
 Normally include detailed valuation analysis (key assumptions, detailed operating model output, updates
on the deals progress)

153

Copal Partners

Profiles

154

Index
Table of Content


Overview

156

Business Description

157

Key Customers/Partners

158

Key Investors

159

Shareholders Structure

160

Key Management

161

Recent News

162

Products and Services

165

Brokers Rating

166

Share Trading Analysis

167

155

Overview


A profile is the most basic presentation tool for research used by investment bankers

It gives a brief overview of a company, clearly laying out key details to enable the reader to form a judgment over
its operation, financial and strategic health

Company Profile describes a company in concise form focusing on


Business description
Key customers/partners/investors
Shareholders structure
Management
Recent news
Products and services
Key financials (Refer to Trading Comps Module)
Brokers rating

156

Business Description


Company description gives a snapshot of a


company providing information such as what a
company does, its products & services, geographic
presence, number of employees etc.

It is the crux/summary of information provided in


other sections of a profile

Since description constitutes a starting point of any


profile and is the first thing an investor reads, it
needs to be crisp, accurate and concise

A company description normally contains the


following:
What a company does
Briefing on its products and services

Industries, the company caters to


Key customers
Partners/strategic alliances
Location and geographic presence

Sources

Founded date and listing


Number of employees


157

Company website
About us section of the website is the
best source
Companys fillings, reports and
presentations can also be used
Other databases such as Capital IQ,
Bloomberg, Reuters etc

Key Customers/Partners


Reflects the Companys relationships in the industry i.e.


strong association with large size companies guarantees
future contracts

This section includes a list of the companys key


customers/partners in alphabetical order
Can also include the logos of key
customers/partners; Logos should be properly
aligned and sized, with no loss of clarity

Always mention a few names (preferably familiar


names)

If the number of customers/partners is available, the


same should be included

Full name of the customer/partner should be avoided


(Microsoft Corporation can be mentioned as Microsoft,
ignoring Corporation)


Sources



Company website
About us section of the website is the best source
Companys fillings, reports and presentations can also be used
Press releases
Other databases such as Capital IQ, Bloomberg, Reuters etc
In the absence of any information, do a web search, for example
company+ customer and company+partner

158

Key Investors


Financing Summary

Provides information about the owners of the


Company i.e. who owns the majority stake, what
type of investors are they (strategic or financial)
Round
1

NA

12 / 93

0.05

NA

Startup / Seed

NA

01 / 94

2.0

7.8

Early Stage

NA

04 / 96

3.0

17.7

Expansion

NA

03 / 00

4.3

32.4

Later Stage

NA

06 / 02

21.2

35.2

Expansion

NA

05 / 03

4.2

21.2

Expansion

NA

02 / 05

2.5

NA

Later Stage

Applicable for a private company, the section


provides information on the Companys various
financing rounds
Also provides the list of investors who have
invested in the Company

Information includes the round number, round type,


date, amount raised ($m), post-money valuation
($m) and company stage

If information is not available on financing rounds,


include the logos of the investors

Sources

Amount Post-Money
Raised
Valuation
Date ($MM)
($MM)

Round
Type

Company Stage

Company Filings
Press releases

Other databases such as Capital IQ, VentureSource, Thomson etc

159

Shareholders Structure


Provides information about the owners of the Company i.e. who


owns the majority stake, what type of investors are they
(strategic or financial)

This section provides the top shareholders of the Company by


number of shares held & % held

Details include name of shareholder, shares held and


percentage ownership

The top shareholders are calculated by considering all the


shareholders (institutional, insider and float)

In case of Multiple class of shares (MSH), shareholding of the


primary listing is considered

Private Companies


In case of private companies, ownership is included in the form


of a pie chart or qualitative text writing

Sources

Company Website or Filings

Other databases such as Capital IQ, Thomson, Bloomberg etc

160

Key Management








Gives an overview about the key decision makers of the


Company. Their affiliations provides additional information
of the experience they have in the relevant industry
Includes the list of the top management team (C-Level) as
per the following hierarchy
Founder
Chairman
Vice/Deputy Chairman
President
CEO
CFO
COO
CIO
CTO
Always mention all the designations applicable for every individual e.g. if CFO is also SVP, Finance; the
designation should be written as CFO & SVP, Finance
Abbreviations such as CFO, CTO, CIO, COO, SVP, EVP etc need not be expanded
Always cross check the Executive Management with the Companys news section; sometimes a management
change is announced but not updated on the website
State the management names in the format, <First Name> <Last Name>, preferably; Exclude middle names,
nick-names, initials and titles (Mr. , Sir, etc.)

Sources





Company website (Management/Board/Executives section)


Company filings (Proxy filing/AR), presentations
Other databases such as Capital IQ, Bloomberg etc
161

Recent News
Recent news section reflects the key happenings in the company, and its economic and regulatory environment

Primary objective is to give a quick snapshot about recent developments in the company in the past few months

DO NOT include news


such as

Types of news to be included








Acquisitions
Mergers
Divestiture
Management changes
Stock buyback/split, IPO
Follow-on offering




Customer contracts
Partnerships/strategic alliances





Organizational changes
Product launches
Funds raised

Financial news

Dividend declaration (a normal feature; usually declared


every quarter)
Award wins
Participation in conferences
Launch of updated versions of any products, if the
updates are too frequent
Law suits






162

Sources

Company Website

Other databases such


as Capital IQ, Factiva
etc

Recent News (contd)


Examples
News Headline

News details

Post formatting


163

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Recent News (contd)


Examples
News Headline

News details

Post formatting


164

Announced the retirement of Robbie


Bach from his position of the President,
Entertainment and Devices division of
the Company

Products and Services




Helps understand the business of the


Company and its reporting structure

This section describes the products,


services and solutions of the company

Each product/service should be briefly


explained in 1-2 sentences focusing
on what that product does/is used for

Provide explanation in a meaningful


manner

If the list of products is too long to


categorize, look for the same in the
annual report/10K, which categorizes
the products in a more suitable
manner

Services, if not very relevant (e.g.


24x7 support, training etc) can be
mentioned in a single sentence

On the other hand if the company has


4-5 main product categories and each
one of them includes 1-2 sub
categories, briefly explain all the
products including the sub categories

Also pictures provides better


understanding, Use as much as
possible

Sources

165

Company Website or Filings

Presentations

Brokers Rating


Reflects the market / broker views on fundamentals of the Company i.e. a higher rating reflects strong
fundamentals & hence low level of risk and a lower rating reflects weak fundamentals & hence high level of risk

Indicates the analyst consensus

The Brokers rating chart gives the breakup of the total number of Buy, Hold and Sell recommendations over an
last twelve months (LTM) period

The section on Analyst Commentary provides commentary on the company from the analysts research reports
The commentary highlights the strengths of the company and how it has been able to benefit from these
strengths. It may also include the Companys recent developments and which may have affected the share
price and/or the analyst recommendation of the company

Sources

Databases such as Bloomberg, FactSet, Capital IQ, Thomson etc


166

Share Trading Analysis




Share trading analysis provides an overview of the share price and the various trends related to capital markets

This section is key to any of the books prepared

The purpose of this section is to understand and analyze the share price and capital market movements with
respect to the chosen company

Various types of charts prepared


Relative share price performance
Annotated share price performance
Volume at price and liquidity analysis
Overview of Research analyst ratings
Development of Consensus Estimates
Broker Comment Frequency Analysis
Valuation methods used by research analysts

167

Share Trading Analysis (contd)


Relative share price performance


Used to compare the performance of the companys


share with respect to the primary index in the market

Points to remember
Always consider closing price of the stock instead
of the last traded price
The closing price to be considered should be of a
day prior to the date on which it is created

The index should always be rebased to the


companys share price in order to have an apples
to apples comparison

Sources

Stock exchange
websites

Databases such as
Bloomberg, FactSet,
DataStream, Capital
IQ etc

168

Share Trading Analysis (contd)


Annotated share price performance


Prepared exactly as a normal share


price performance chart with the
only difference being the inclusion
of news that reflect the changes in
the share price movement

Always look for dates where there


has been a drastic change in the
share price movement vis--vis its
primary index. Thereafter look for
news that have triggered those
changes in the share price

Sources

Press releases from company website

Stock exchange websites

Databases such as Bloomberg, FactSet, DataStream, Capital IQ etc

169

Share Trading Analysis (contd)


Volume at price and
liquidity analysis


Objective is to show in a
chart how has traded
volume of the share been
distributed between
different price ranges

Sources

Stock exchange websites

Databases such as Bloomberg, FactSet, DataStream, Capital IQ etc

170

Share Trading Analysis (contd)


Overview of Research analyst ratings


Gauges different analysts perception of the stock and what kind of recommendation they are making on it

The purpose is to understand the view of the market on the stock

Sources

Research reports

Databases such as Bloomberg, Capital IQ etc

171

Share Trading Analysis (contd)


Development of Consensus Estimates


Gauges the consensus estimates on Revenues, EBITDA and EPS for the future years and how they evolve

Consensus estimates represent the market perception on the future operational results of the company

Always calendarize the estimate to have a constant point of reference

Sources

Databases such as Bloomberg, Reuters, Capital IQ etc

172

Share Trading Analysis (contd)


Broker Comment Frequency Analysis


Conduct a qualitative analysis of the perception of


the stock in the market, identifying key and
recurrent themes in the different analyst reports

Categorize these themes as positive and negative


to indicate analyst comments

Key themes may include: trends in the industry,


technological trends, extraordinary events, risks,
challenges etc

Sources

Research reports

173

Share Trading Analysis (contd)


Valuation methods used by research analysts
 To describe the valuation methods used by the research analysts covering the stock
 Information to be included:
bank/broker name
main valuation methods used
main comparable companies used for valuation purposes
key comments on the valuation of the company

Sources

Research reports
174

Copal Partners

Case Studies

175

Index
Table of Content


Introduction

177

Types of Acquisition

178

Transaction Types

179

Overview

181

Target Business Description

182

Transaction Overview

183

Transaction Highlights

184

Transaction Rationale

185

Market /Brokers perception

186

176

Introduction


Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) are a big part of the corporate finance world. Every day, Wall Street investment
bankers arrange M&A transactions, which bring separate companies together to form larger ones.

M&A are a combination of two or more companies, or the acquisition of a part of a corporation for which some
payment is given in compensation. This payment can be in stock, cash or a combination of the two.

Investors in a company, that are aiming to take over another one, must determine whether the purchase will be
beneficial to them. In order to do so, they must determine how much the company being acquired is really worth.

The success of a merger is measured by whether the value of the buyer is enhanced in medium to long term, by
the action.

A transaction case study aim at analyzing the merger and acquisition deal that has taken place.

177

Types of Acquisition
An Acquisition can take the form of a purchase of stock and other equity in the target entity or the purchase of all or a
substantial portion of its assets


Share Purchase In a share/stock purchase, the seller transfers shares in the target entity to the acquirer in
exchange for an agreed-upon consideration. The acquirer takes on the target company with all its assets and
liabilities

Asset Purchase In an asset purchase, the acquirer buys all or a substantial portion of the assets of the target
company. An advantage for the acquirer in an asset purchase is that it can cherry-pick the assets it wants and
leave assets and liabilities that it does not want to purchase

178

Transaction Types
Some common types of deals


Leveraged Buyout An LBO is essentially a strategy whereby the acquirer gains control over the targets stock
or assets through significant amount of borrowed money, making the acquired companys new capital structure
highly levered; for e.g. - Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. and Texas Pacific Groups acquisition of TXU Corp

Secondary Buyout The management team, in conjunction with a private equity fund, acquires the business,
allowing the existing private equity supplier to exit from its investment. Thus, it is an exit mechanism whereby one
investment firm sells its position in a venture on to another; for e.g. - The sale of textile and cleaning group Elis by
French buyout firm PAI Partners to rival Eurazeo

Public to Private Buyout This involves the management or a private equity provider making an offer for the
listed shares of a public quoted company, then taking the company private; for e.g. - Blackstone Groups
acquisition of German chemical maker Celanese

Management Buyout Existing management of a company buys the Company from its owners; foe e.g. A.T.Kearneys management buy-out

Tender Offers A formal offer of determined duration to acquire a public companys shares made to equity
holders. The offer is often conditioned upon certain requirements such as a minimum number of shares being
tendered; for e.g. - Sanofi-Aventis tender offer to acquire all outstanding shares of Genzyme for $69 per share in
cash

Divestiture A deal which results in the loss of majority control, such as sale of subsidiary; for e.g. - Kodaks
sale of Health Group to Onex

Privatization Sale of a government-controlled entity to a single or consortium of bidders or by floatation of stock


via public offering; for e.g. - Rosneft privatization
179

Transaction Types (contd)


Deal Attitude


Represents the recommendation of the target companys Management or Board of Directors on the transaction
Friendly The Board recommends the offer
Hostile The Board officially rejects the offer (but the acquirer persists with the takeover)
Neutral The Management has nothing to do with the transaction
Not applicable The attitude of the Board is not applicable, i.e. open market repurchases, spin-offs
Unsolicited The offer is a surprise to the targets board, and it has yet not given a recommendation.

Deal Consideration


There are three common ways to pay for a M&A Transaction


All Cash
 The acquirer pays a lump sum cash consideration to purchase shares/assets in the target
 The acquirer offers per share cash consideration for every target share
All Stock The acquirer offers its own shares in consideration for each share of the target
Stock & Cash The acquirer makes payment for the target partly by issuing its own stock and partly in cash

Additionally, the deal consideration may also include provision for Earnouts. Earnout is a method of
compensating a seller based on the future earnings of the acquired entity. It is the contingent portion of the
purchase price
180

Overview


Case studies focus on different M&A transactions and include the following information regarding the deal:
Target/Acquiror Business Description
Transaction Highlights
Transaction Overview
Transaction Rationale
Implied Multiples (Refer to Trading/Transaction Comp Modules)
Market/brokers Perception

181

Target Business Description




Give a brief description of the target company


Include main business of the company, major product categories, geographic presence and other details like
brands, headquarter, listing, employees

In case only one division or segment of the company is being acquired then focus on that particular segment or
division

Also, include data related to the market position of the Target (for example: largest produce of chemicals in China;
one of the leading provider of software solutions etc)

Sources

Company Website or Filings

Other databases such as Capital IQ, Thomson, Factiva etc

182

Transaction Overview


This section captures the various news items that have been released regarding the transaction

Start from the first mention of the deal (rumors date) or managements wish to get acquired

It might be the first bid by the acquirer or a competitive bid

Move in ascending order to the latest available news on the deal

Try to capture all news regarding the deal including


Market rumors
Other bidders
Revised bids
Change in value of the deal
Search for partners

Sources

Company Website or Filings

Other databases such as Bloomberg, Capital IQ, Thomson, Factiva etc

183

Transaction Highlights


Covers a summary of all events that took place in the course of the deal, starting from the announcement of the
deal includes:
Items such as the %age held, final price, dividends declared, financing details, advisors, etc. and Information
regarding the terms and conditions of the deal
Management and shareholding changes, post transaction, if any
Status of the deal, pending or completed
Any other post transactions plans
Compliance requirements with governing agencies

Sources

Company Website: Fillings, presentations and press releases

Other databases such as Bloomberg, Capital IQ, Thomson, Factiva etc

184

Transaction Rationale


Rationale for Seller/Target: Mention benefits which the seller/target is expecting from the deal or why they want to
sell off the Company

Synergy: Overall synergy benefits expected out of the joint entity post merger. The functions of synergy allow for
the enhanced cost efficiency of a new entity made from two smaller ones - synergy is the logic behind mergers
and acquisitions

Focus on various strategic benefits of the deal such as combining the product portfolio of current target with its
existing portfolio companies and entering a new geography with the current acquisition

Include potential synergies, increase in market share, enhancement in product portfolio, geographic expansion,
financing further growth and divesting non-core activities

Sources

Company Website: Fillings, presentations and press releases

Other databases such as Bloomberg, Capital IQ, Thomson, Factiva etc

185

Market /Brokers perception




The section provides commentary on the company from the analysts research reports; try to include comments
from the brokers who have made commentary on the deal
Also, in some cases, the commentary includes quotes by Key management of the target and acquirer on the
deal

The commentary highlights the attractiveness of the target, deal rationale, comments on valuation or future
predictions of the deal

In case of private companies, try to find out analysts comments on the deal through web search

Try to incorporate broker comments on target/acquirer and seller for the deal

Sources

Research reports pertaining to the transaction

Other databases such as Bloomberg, Press etc

186

Copal Partners

Industry Overview

187

Introduction


Industry overview analysis presents a snapshot of the industry and its competitive landscape

This is provided to gauge the current positioning of the particular company and identify certain strategic areas that
the company may consider, including M&A options

Broadly, the following sections exist in this overview

Industry snapshot
 this section details the current state of the industry
 provides figures relating to market size and growth rates
 also details how the industry is structured in terms of various segments
 the current and expected trends are then highlighted to understand the future outlook for the industry

Evolution
 briefly highlight the evolution of the industry, and analyze any specific pattern
 competitive landscape
 briefly describe the competition in each segment highlighting large players and their positioning

Companys positioning
 given the industry trends, future outlook and competition, highlight the companys competitive positioning
and suggest any specific strategic actions (this may include a SWOT analysis)

Options
 present a case for various strategic options that could be possible given the industry scenario, competitive
landscape and the current state of the company
188

Introduction (contd)


An industry analysis should answer the following questions:


What are the industry dominant economic traits?
What competitive forces are at work in the industry and how strong are they?
Which companies are in the strongest/weakest competitive position?
Whos likely to make what competitive moves next?
What key factors will determine success or failure?
How attractive is the industry in terms of its prospects for above average profitability?
What are the forces of change in the industry and what impact will they have?

189

Industrys dominant economic traits


Covers


Market size (Small markets dont attract big fish)

Scope of competitive rivalry

Market/industry growth rate (life cycle)


Fast growth breeds new entry; slowdowns lead to increased competition

Number of rivals and their size

Number of buyers and their size

Level of backward and forward integration

Technological change (rate and scope)

Level of differentiation between firms products

Opportunities for economies of scale

Ease of entry and exit

Capital requirements

190

Forces of change in the industry




The most dominant forces that cause the industry to change are called driving forces
Task 1 - identify the driving forces
Task 2 - assessing their impact on the industry (few are important, generally)

Common Driving Forces


Changes in long term industry growth rate
Changes in who buy the products and for what reason
Product innovation
Technological change
Marketing innovation
Increasing globalization
Regulatory changes
Changing societal concerns, attitudes and lifestyles

191

Companies in the strongest/weakest competitive position




Identify strongest/weakest
competition using strategic
group mapping: two
dimensional representation
according to the competitive
characteristics of the
competitors in the industry
Identify competitive
characteristics
Plot firms on a 2 variable
map
Assign firms to strategic
groups
Circle groups proportional
to size
Variables:
Axes should not be
correlated
Expose differences in rival
strategies
Need not be quantitative or
continuous
The closer the circles, the
stronger the rivalry

Product line/merchandise mix

192

Variables in identifying competitors




How do other firms define the scope of their market?


The more similar the definitions of firms, the more likely the firms will view each other as competitors

How similar are the benefits the customers derive from the products and services other firms offer?
The more similar the benefits, the higher the level of substitutability between them

How committed are other firms to the industry?


To size up commitment of potential competitors to industry, reliable intelligence data are needed concerning
potential resource commitments

193

Common mistakes in identifying competitors




Overemphasizing current and known competitors while ignoring potential entrants

Overemphasizing large competitors while ignoring small ones

Overlooking potential international competitors

Assuming competitors will continue to behave in same way

Misreading signals indicating a shift in focus of competitors

Overemphasizing competitors financial resources, market position, and strategies while ignoring their intangible
assets

Assuming all firms in industry are subject to same constraints or are open to same opportunities

194

Whos likely to make what competitive moves next?


In order to outmaneuver your competition you have to evaluate the competitors future moves


Identify competitors strategies

Evaluate who are the current major players


Which are strong and which are weak

Evaluate who will be the major players?

Predict competitors move


Strategic changes
Moves into new markets
Acquisition targets or movers

195

Key factors that determine success or failure


Key success factors (KSF) are crucial elements that lead to success


Technology related KSFs


Scientific research expertise (important in such fields as pharmaceuticals, medicine, space exploration, other
"high-tech" industries)

Production process innovation capability

Production innovation capability

Expertise in a given technology

Manufacturing related KSFs

Low-cost production efficiency (achieve scale economies, capture experience curve effects)

Efficiency / Quality of manufacturing (fewer defects, less need for repairs)

High utilization of fixed assets (Asset Turnover) (important in capital intensive/high fixed-cost industries)

Low-cost plant locations

Access to adequate supplies of skilled labor

High labor productivity (important for items with high labor content)

Low-cost product design and engineering (reduces manufacturing costs)

Flexibility to manufacture a range of models and sizes/take care of customer orders


196

Key factors that determine success or failure (contd)




Distribution related KSFs

A strong network of wholesale distributors/dealers

Gaining ample space on retailer shelves

Having company-owned retail outlets

Low distribution costs

Fast delivery

Marketing related KSFs


A well-trained, effective sales force

Available, dependable service and technical assistance

Accurate filling of buyer orders (few back orders or mistakes)

Breadth of product line and product selection

Merchandising skills

Attractive styling/packaging

Customer guarantees and warranties (important in mail-order retailing, big ticket purchases, new product
introductions)

197

Key factors that determine success or failure (contd)




Skills related KSFs

Superior talent (important in professional services)

Quality control know-how

Design expertise (important in fashion and apparel industries)

Expertise in a particular technology

Ability to come up with clever, catchy ads

Ability to get newly developed products out of the R&D phase and into the market very quickly

Organizational capability related KSFs


Superior information systems (important in airline travel, car rental, credit card, and lodging industries)

Ability to respond quickly to shifting market conditions (streamlined decision-making, short lead times to bring
new products to market)

More experience and managerial know-how

What they are now? What they will be?

198

Attractiveness of the industry in terms of its prospects for above average profitability
Can be judged by the following parameters:


Growth potential

Impact of prevailing driving forces

Potential entry or exit of major firms

Stability of demand

Trend of competitive forces

Severity of problems confronting industry

Future risk and uncertainty

Competition and its impact on the industrys future

199

Data gathering
Four considerations to be kept in mind:


Determine what information is needed


Define the topic
Consider the goals to be reached and how much information is needed to
achieve them
Identify the key words or central concepts in the research question
Develop a standard research form to use

Determine where you are going to look


Consider who might produce the type of information you have defined in
step 1
Sources to look at:
 Trade association
 Trade publications
 Business broker
 Print media i.e. newspapers, magazines, journals etc
 Periodical databases
 Reports by industry analysts

200

Data gathering (contd)




Develop a Search Strategy


Using the Internet to search for business valuation information is
potentially one of the most efficient ways
Boolean logic is the basic logic system used for online searching; uses
three logical operators: AND, OR and NOT
 The AND connector means that all search terms connected by the
AND must be present
 The OR connector requires either term to be present
 The NOT connector returns records where the designated term
does not appear
Another helpful search logic tool is truncation. Truncation, also known
as wild card searching, allows searching of word variations
 Wild cards can vary from database to database but usually are
either the * or ?
Evaluate Information
The following questions should be asked for evaluation:
Who authored this information? - Is the authors name and affiliation
disclosed? Is there an e-mail address so that you can inquire further?
Is the author the creator or the compiler of the information?

Who is publishing this information? - Can the producer be identified


and contacted? Is it a professional organization? Does the
organization have a particular bias? Who is the intended audience?
What can you determine about the content? - How complete is the
information? Is it an abstract of the complete text? Are the references
documented, current and relevant?
201

Creating an analysis structure




Providing an overview and describing a situation


Always start with the subject familiar to the target audience
Establish facts about the subject
Prove it is a profitable venture for investment

Highlighting opportunities arising out of the situation

Identify and state the factors that are creating opportunities

Establish facts and future prospects of the available opportunities

Compare available opportunities




Tapping opportunities through M&A


Show how M&A can help in tapping opportunities
Prepare a supply/value chain showing benefits of the transaction to both the
acquirer and the target

Appendix
Should contain all necessary definitions of the jargons used in the presentation
Include profiles of the selected target companies
Include previous transactions & comps for that industry
202

Project execution


Insights through primary research


Using insights from industry personnel will help in a deeper understanding of the
industry on which you are working
Create a call list within 1-2 days so that the questions that arise from the
hypothesis are sent to these contacts
Assign 1 or 2 persons to check for information on companies, industry
associations and their contact details
Send the interview requests by email at the beginning of the study. This allows
for the process to get started while the team conducts the secondary research
The same set of questions should not to be sent to all persons in the mailing list.
Queries sent to different persons should be pertaining to their respective areas
of operations

 Do not just write an email for information request and wait for people to
respond. Be proactive, keep calling until you get the desired data from
external and internal contacts
 Follow a reasonable caution while calling up external sources

203

Project execution (contd)


Apply So what analysis to convert a data dump into a storyline


For all facts and information on each slide, always ask yourself so what

Always present in a way that forces reader to prompt so what and then answer it in the next section. Keep doing
this unless no such question arise

If the implication of a slide comes out clearly, it transforms a data dump into a value-added analysis

Key questions:


So what does this mean?

Will this affect the sector, economy or the region being analyzed?

Will the impact be positive or negative?

Is the rate of change fast or slow? (Will the impact be strong and immediate or not?)

Does this get you closer to proving or disproving your current hypotheses?

204

Copal Partners

Research Techniques

205

Introduction
There are a lot of research methodologies used to prepare an Industry piece. The most extensively used techniques
are as follows:
A. SWOT Analysis
B. PESTEL Analysis
C. Porters Five forces model

206

SWOT Analysis
A. SWOT Analysis: An analysis of STRENGTHS,WEAKNESSES, OPPURTUNITIES and THREATS. Extremely
useful tool for understanding and decision-making
Applicable in all businesses and organizations
Provides a framework for reviewing strategy, position and direction of a company or business proposition, or
any other idea
Can be used for business planning, strategic planning, competitor evaluation, marketing, business and
product development and research reports
Presented as a grid, comprising four sections, one for each of the SWOT headings

SWOT analysis can be used to assess:


 company (its position in the market, commercial viability, etc)
 method of sales distribution
 product or brand
 business idea
 strategic option, such as entering a new market or launching a new product
 opportunity to make an acquisition
 potential partnership
 changing a supplier
 outsourcing a service, activity or resource
 an investment opportunity

207

PESTEL Analysis
B. PESTEL Analysis
PESTEL is an acronym for Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Environmental and Legal
PESTEL Analysis helps analyze factors in the macro-environment that affect the decisions of the managers of
any organization
 Examples include: Tax changes, new laws, trade barriers, demographic change, government policy
changes etc
Helps analyze the many different factors in a firm's macro environment
 It is important not to just list PESTEL factors because this does not in itself tell much
 Need to find out, which factors are most likely to change and which ones will have the greatest impact on
the company i.e. each firm must identify the key factors in their own environment

208

Porters Five forces model


C. Porters Five forces model
It is designed to explain the relationship between the five dynamic forces that affect an industrys performance;
these are the:
 intensity of competitive rivalry;
 threat from new entrants;
 threat from substitutes;
 bargaining power of buyers;
 bargaining power of suppliers.
The Five Forcers Analysis model tries to identify what factors shape the character of competition within an
industry.
Targets the assessment of the structural attractiveness of the analyzed industry.
Finally the Five Forces Analysis pinpoints strengths and weaknesses in a company and discovers
opportunities or threats within the industry

209

Competitive forces at work in the industry

210

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