Revista Power de Enero 2015
Revista Power de Enero 2015
Revista Power de Enero 2015
WWW.RENTECHBOILERS.COM
January 2015
ON THE COVER
The future is, by definition, not the present. But blink, and what was the future is here. This
annual forecast issue focuses on a number of developments that once seemed far in the
future but are now in front of us or right on the horizon. Courtesy: Gail Reitenbach
20
30
FEATURES
RENEWABLE POWER
www.powermag.com
35
1
TRAINING
39 Utilizing 3-D Virtual Reality Visualization for Efficient Power Projects and
Training
By marrying volumes of diverse plant digital data with virtual reality technology,
its now possible to gain a clearer understanding than ever before of current facility configurations. This combination of capabilities also enables immersive training
thats the next best thing to touching the actual valves.
EMISSIONS CONTROL
39
FUNDAMENTALS
DEPARTMENTS
SPEAKING OF POWER
49
8
9
9
10
11
12
IEA: Renewables Will Overtake Coals Share in World Power Mix by 2040
Outlook Foresees World Wind Market Revival
Alstom Reports Major Boost for Advanced Ultrasupercritical Technology
THE BIG PICTURE: Baseload Retirements
Pilot Launched to Convert Olive Oil Waste to Power
POWER Digest
FOCUS ON O&M
COMMENTARY
8
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KEEP IT GOING.
+ Bolting/Torquing
+ Concrete Repair
+ Emissions Control
The management of thermal and renewable assets requires numerous services to maintain
+ Exchanger Services
the integrity of the equipment and ensure optimal production. From inspection of turbine
+ Field Machining
shafts to in-service valve installations on cooling lines, Team has the experience, equipment,
+ Heat Treating
+ Hot Tap/Line Stop
Team experts are available 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, 365 days a year.
+ Leak Repair
+ Manufacturing/Engineering
www.teamindustrialservices.com
+ Mechanical Integrity
+ NDE/NDT Inspection
+ Specialty Welding
+ Turnkey Tank Program
+ Valve Insertion
+ Valve Repair
INDUSTRIES SERVED:
SPEAKING OF POWER
www.powermag.com
PROBLEM SOLVERS.
PERFORMANCE YOU CAN TRUST,
INNOVATION YOU CAN SEE.
Innovation is an important part of Fluors culture. Our experts understand the complex compliance
requirements to bring new power generation facilities on line. Clients trust Fluor to deliver integrated
solutions that optimize their assets, improve their competitive position, and increase their long-term
business success.
Fluor recently completed two facilities generating more than 1,000-MW of natural gas power, and we are
currently assisting clients to design and build additional gas-fueled facilities to power homes across the
United States. www.fluor.com
1. How the worlds power mix is changing. In its latest World Energy Outlook, the
International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted that if a number of policies proposed today are adopted, renewables could overtake coal to become the largest source of electricity. Source: IEA
11%
5%
22%
1990
12%
11,825 TWh
24%
2012
22,720 TWh
2020
1%
27,770 TWh
2040
40,105 TWh
www.powermag.com
According to the IEA, the future of carbon capture and storage (CCS) appears
foggy because supportive government
policies needed to drive its deployment
are notably absent. The agency projected
that about 3% (around 70 GW) of coal capacity and a much smaller portion of gas
plants will be equipped with CCS by 2040;
most will be in the U.S. and China.
Nuclears future, too, looks uncertain,
the report suggests, noting that a number of factors will determine nuclears
retreat, recovery, or renaissance. The
sector is grappling with workforce constraints as well as availability of heavy
forging capacity to manufacture reactor
vessels. In addition, nearly half of the
434 reactors operating in the world at
the end of 2013 will be retired by 2040.
The rate of retirements will pick up in the
first half of the 2020s, as reactors built
during the 1970s are taken offline, and
then again in the late 2030s. This is set
to pose challenges for industry and regulators and possibly strain engineering
and project management capabilities,
the IEA predicted.
The report also included an interesting revelation about future power costs,
which are expected to climb (in 2013 dollars) from $1.6 trillion in 2012 to about
$2.9 trillion in 2040 and will be mostly recovered through regulated or competitive
wholesale power prices. The IEA projected
that the U.S. in particular will have some
of the worlds most competitive industrial
power prices: In 2040, Chinese industrial
electricity prices will be 75% higher than
those in the U.S., while EU prices will be
almost twice as high, it suggests. And
that is despite the agencys projections
that average costs of generation in the
U.S. will rise from $55/MWh today to close
to $70/MWh in 2040.
From 2014 to 2040, an average of
around $770 billion (in 2013 dollars)
will be poured into the worlds power
sector, 58% to build new capacity and
refurbish existing plants, and the remainder to expand transmission and distribution networks. The IEA suggested
that at least one-fifth of investment
in generation will go to wind, followed
by about 16% each for hydro and coal,
13% for solar, and 11% for natural gas.
Global subsidies for renewables will also
increase, it projected, from $121 billion
in 2013 (15% higher than in 2012) to
$230 billion in 2030.
2. A whirlwind for world wind. The Global Wind Energy Council anticipates a significant jump in the worlds wind market, driven by emerging markets in Africa, Asia, and South
America. In November, for example, Iberdrola completed construction of Kenyas first wind
farm, the 13.6-MW Ngong II project. In December construction began on the 300-MW Lake
Turkana wind farm in Kenya, an $800 million project that will become Africas largest installation
when completed in early 2017. This image shows blades arriving for a Kenyan wind farm. Courtesy: Iberdrola
www.powermag.com
3%
16%
1%
Natural gas
37%
Renewables
32%
30%
Nuclear
35%
9%
Coal
2000
2040
2012
Oil/
other liquids
(est)
52%
19%
12%
16%
16%
19%
99 GW
Summer net
nuclear capacity
(2012)
136 GW
102 GW
5 GW
NUCLEAR
14 GW
Coal retirements
announced for
2014 to 2016
COMBUSTION
TURBINE/DIESEL
Coal retirements
between 2012
and 2020
Retirements
between 2012
and 2020
50 GW
8 GW
20 GW
COMBINED
CYCLE
COAL
301 GW
Summer net
capacity (2012)
Combined cycle
retirements
between 2012
and 2020
Summer net
combined cycle
capacity (2012)
186 GW
0.26 GW
10
www.powermag.com
Coordinated by Swedish fuel cell technology company PowerCell, with participants from Spain, Greece, and the UK, the
two-year European Unionfunded project,
Biogas2PEM-FC, ended in October 2014
with full deployment of the prototype. The
project originally sought a solution that
would provide a modular, reliable, costeffective, and efficient combined heat and
power system suitable for onsite generation from agricultural wastes.
The pilot plant seeks to dispose of environmentally harmful waste from olive oil
production (Figure 4). It contains pesticides and toxic organic compounds, it is
also acidic and has a high salinity. Currently the waste is turned to landfill, but
[that] is very costly and becomes a major
environmental problem, the Biogas2PEMFC project developers said.
The partners developed a three-part
subsystem to convert the waste into power. First, it uses an anaerobic digestion reaction to produce biogas from the waste;
then a reformer converts the biogas to a
hydrogen-rich gas (reformate); and finally,
a fuel cell system generates power from
the reformate gas.
It is estimated that up to 30 million
cubic meters of wastewater is produced
annually, during a three to four-month
period, on an olive oil plant, water that
can be used in biogas production. The
technology developed in this project
can also be used with other agricultural
waste, said Per Ekdunge, project coordinator and vice president of PowerCell
Sweden AB.
4. From toxic waste to power. A pilot plant newly launched in Spain converts olive
oil waste, which is environmentally harmful and costly to dispose of, into power. Courtesy:
BiogasPEM-FC
www.powermag.com
11
POWER Digest
Candu Wins Chinas Backing to Develop AFCR Projects. Candu Energy
and the China National Nuclear Corp.
on Nov. 10 signed a framework joint venture agreement to build Advanced Fuel
CANDU Reactor (AFCR) projects in China
and develop opportunities for it globally.
In late October, a panel of 22 Chinese
nuclear experts from industry and academia concluded that the AFCR, Candus
700-MW Gen-III reactor that uses both
recycled uranium and thorium-based
fuels, promotes development of closed
fuel-cycle technologies and is consistent with Chinas overall nuclear power
strategy. The panel recognized that the
AFCR complements Chinas light-water
reactor (LWR) technology. One AFCR can
be fully fueled by reusing spent fuel from
four LWRs as recycled uranium, allowing
China to reduce spent fuel volume and
reduce reliance on imported uranium. On
Nov. 10, meanwhile, Canada and China
signed a memorandum of understanding
to advance civilian nuclear energy collaboration between the two countries,
including developing advanced-fuel reactors and exports to third markets.
E.ON to Split to Focus on Renewables, Grids. Germanys generation giant E.ON on Dec. 1 announced it would
split into two companies to focus on
renewables, distribution networks, and
customer solutions. Its conventional
generation, global energy trading, and
exploration and production businesses
will become a new, publicly listed, independent company. The firms existing
broad business model could no longer
properly address challenges stemming
from altered global energy markets and
technical innovation, the company said.
The spinoff will take place after approval
by E.ON shareholders in 2016.
RWE Completes Worlds SecondLargest Offshore Wind Farm. Construction of RWE Innogys flagship 576-MW
Gwynt y Mr Offshore Wind Farm, the
worlds second largest, was completed
on Nov. 24. Commissioning of the wind
farms 41 turbines off the North Wales
coast in the UK is expected next year.
The $3.15 billion project is the largest
after the 630-MW London Array, a 2014
POWER Top Plant that was commissioned
in April 2013. In November, meanwhile,
E.ON downsized its proposed 700-MW
Rampion offshore wind project off the
Sussex coast to 400 MW due to environmental and commercial concerns raised
during the consultation process.
1. Water withdrawals. The chart displays water usage by category. Source: U.S. Geological Survey
Public supply Rural domestic and livestock Irrigation Thermoelectric power Other
300
450
250
400
350
200
300
250
150
200
100
150
100
50
50
0
500
Total withdrawals (right axis)
0
1950 1955 1960 1965
2010
2. State totals. The chart displays water usage by state. Source: U.S. Geological Survey
Public supply Other Irrigation Industrial Thermoelectric power
40,000
WEST
EAST
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
HI AK OR WA CA NV ID AZ UT MT WY NM CO ND SD NE TX KS OK MN IO MO LA AR WI MS IL AL TN IN KY MI GA OH FL SC WV NC VA PA MD DC NY DE NJ CT VT MA RI NH ME PR VI
www.powermag.com
3. Got water? The map shows drought conditions as of Nov. 25, 2014. Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture, et al.
S
SL
SL
L
S
SL
SL
SL
S
S
SL
S
S
Intensity:
Author:
Eric Luebehusen
U.S. Department of Agriculture
D0 Abnormally Dry
D1 Moderate Drought
D2 Severe Drought
D3 Extreme Drought
D4 Exceptional Drought
SL
SL
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
the total was 20% less than in 2005 (Figure 1). A number of factors contributed to
the reduction, including the use of more
efficient cooling technologies, reductions
in withdrawals to protect aquatic habitat
and environments, power plant closures,
and a decline in coal-fired generation.
But water risk is ultimately a local and
regional issue. California, for example, is
the largest user of water, but the majority of its freshwater goes to agriculture. It
uses 10 times more saltwater than freshwater for thermoelectric power withdrawals. Texas and Illinois, on the other hand,
feed the most freshwater to thermoelectric power generation (Figure 2).
Drought stressa big factor in water
riskis not shared equally across the
country. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture drought monitor, most
of California and a large portion of Texas
were experiencing exceptional drought
at the end of November, while much of the
Midwestern U.S., including all of Illinois,
was drought free (Figure 3).
4. Something other than the lifeguard is missing. The water level in Folsom
Lake, a reservoir located 25 miles northeast of Sacramento, Calif., was only 28% in early December. Courtesy: POWER/Aaron Larson
Concerns Worldwide
The DOE report noted that severe drought
affected more than a third of the U.S. in
2012, constraining the operation of some
power plants. Of the 12 major reservoirs
that the California Department of Water Resources Data Exchange Center offers daily condition reports for, levels at
eight of them were 28% or less on Dec. 1
(Figure 4). The U.S. is not alone. Lack of
rainfall in South America has left some of
www.powermag.com
15
GWI is seeing some U.S. generators considering water insurance, that is, paying a
regular premium to senior water rights owners, so that if a bad drought occurs, they
can exercise an option to buy water at a preagreed-upon price. The main priority for the
power industry must be to secure access to
water, rain or shine, said Gasson.
Unique Solutions
Power and water can complement each other. Water is difficult to transport, but easy
to store. Electricity is easy to transport,
but difficult to store. Gasson believes the
two are quite fungible, especially where
power is needed to make water.
You could probably avoid the massive
build out of power plants in the Middle
East if you used water generation and
storage to manage the peaks. For example, instead of needing to build more and
more peakers to cover the air conditioning demand in summer and in the middle
of the day, you could just have a series of
baseload plants and switch production to
[desalination] production when demand is
low and supply to the grid when demand
is high, he said.
Another distinctive water solution is of-
513.641.0500
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Award-winning
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Marmaduke Surfaceblows
Salty Technical Romances
Steve Elonka began chronicling the exploits of Marmaduke
Surfaceblowa fictional six-foot-four marine engineer with a
steel brush mustache and a foghorn voicein POWER in 1948,
when he raised the wooden mast of the SS Asia Sun with the help
of two cobras and a case of Sandpaper Gin. Surfaceblows simple
solutions to seemingly intractable plant problems remain timeless. This anthology, first published in 1979, highlights many of
Marmadukes exploits that occurred during his early years (preWW I) through the 1960s.
Surfaceblows knowledge comes from hands-on experience operating steam power plants and
all manner of machinery. Later in the series
a son, Guy Newcomen Surfaceblow, was
introduced. He is a university-trained engineer who also has field experience that gives
him credibility when working with hard-boiled
characters in the boonies. The characters name
was coined from Marmaduke, a Scottish name,
and Surfaceblow, which is the action of removing impurities from a steam boiler.
In this book, available in a PDF download, you will
find all of Surfaceblows adventures
consolidated into a single volume. Many of the
stories were inspired by actual events.
Available in a PDF format, 321 pages long.
20954
Rick Glick
Merissa Moeller
Pacific Northwest
Moving Ahead with
Climate Change Policy?
www.powermag.com
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Qt"c"uwrrnkgt"yjq"fqgupv"ujctg"{qwt"xkukqp"qh"uweeguu0"Lwuv"qpg"tgcuqp"yj{"oqtg"gswkrogpv"dwknfgtu"ctg"pqy"
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20
tirement of those same units, we are accelerating our plans to build simple and combined
cycle gas-fired generation.
T. Preston Gillespie, Jr.: As we think
about 2015, its important to recognize that
the utility industry is in a stage of transformation driven by historically low natural
gas prices, rising environmental compliance
costs, anemic load growth, and technology
innovations. By 2015, Duke will have retired
nearly 6,800 MW of older coal and large oilfired capacity replaced primarily with lowcost, and lower-emitting natural gas. We have
also invested more than $2.5 billion in commercial wind and solar since 2007 and more
than $7.5 billion in environmental controls.
Technology continues to evolve, and we
anticipate a continuing trend regarding the
impacts associated with net metering and the
introduction of improved batteries and other
energy storage devices.
How much is renewable generation at
the building and community level affecting your companys demand trends?
Green: We continue to work with the com-
By next year, our solar photovoltaic facilities will be capable of being ramped down
and participating in Californias day-ahead and real-time
markets, and our hydro systems, despite their already
high degree of flexibility, will be looking to
further expand their capabilities.
Randal S. Livingston, Pacific Gas & Electric
and smart grid implementation all have important implications from distributed generation.
Electrical storage, customer demand response,
and electric vehicle charging are important options to consider in either shifting demand to
the periods of high solar generation or shifting
generation to the peak periods.
Pfeuffer: We havent seen a significant
impact on our demand trends. On the policy
side of this discussion, we fully support customers right to own and operate renewable
distributed generation to serve their energy
needs, but not cross-subsidies in our rates
that allow DG-owning customers to avoid
paying their fair share of fixed costs. We
believe there are several modifications to
net metering policies that could help correct
the inherent unfairness and ensure that net
metered DG customers pay fairly for utility services and energy and are compensated
accurately for the value of the generation
they produce.
Gillespie: Renewable generation at the
residential and commercial level is still small
for Duke Energy. Its only 4% of our total
solar portfolio. We are finding greater success with large-scale solar and feel its the
most cost-effective way to integrate renewable energy onto the grid. We will soon begin construction of three of the largest solar
facilities on the East Coast. However, one of
the issues we are starting to address is how
much we pay for excess distributed generation like rooftop solar coming into our grid.
Paying full retail price does not account for
the costs associated with transmitting and
distributing the power and having backup
generation available. We are working with
our regulators to reach a stable and equitable
approach.
www.powermag.com
As our generation mix changes and our jobs change, flexibility in how we think, work,
and solve problems will continue to be a key attribute.
Sharon Pfeuffer, DTE Energy
60% of our generation mix comes from nonemitting sources.
Pfeuffer: If the final plan is similar to what
has been proposed, it will be the most significant piece of environmental regulation ever
imposed. The proposed plan has an aggressive front-loaded schedule for full compliance by 2030. We are still working through
how we would comply, while still maintaining reliable and affordable generation for
our customers. In any timetable, 111(d) will
cause the retirement of many or most of our
coal assets, and additional build of renewable
wind and gas-fired generation.
Gillespie: It is too soon to tell. Once the
rule is finalized, states will have between one
to three years to develop a compliance strategy, and the path they will take is unclear at
this time. It is early in the rulemaking process, and a lot can change.
The global power industry is becoming more concerned about water availability and quality. Is your company
addressing water constraints now or
preparing for any in the future?
Green: CPS Energy has maintained a
Pfeuffer: Only one of our generating facilities is located in an area where water
resources are constrained, representing less
than 1% of our total generating capacity. The
majority of operations take place in Michigan, which has an abundance of high-quality
freshwater. Although there are factors that
can negatively affect this resource (such as
invasive species), the Great Lakes are believed to be a valuable source of freshwater
for many years to come.
Gillespie: Water is a critical resource to
Duke Energy and the communities we serve.
Rivers and reservoirs serve as the backbone
of our generation fleet by providing hydropower and cooling water for our nuclear and
fossil plants. As part of being a good environmental steward, we use models that quantify
water needs/use and quality during both normal and drought conditions, and work with
stakeholders to ensure our impact on this
shared resource is minimized. Additionally,
we continuously evaluate new technology
that will allow us to use less water in generating electricity.
In a wordfollowed by a one-sentence explanationhow do you feel
about your utilitys portfolio as you anticipate its operation in 2015?
Green: Confident. CPS Energy is fortu-
The effluent regulations appear to have the most potential to significantly increase
power cost due to the high
cost of compliance.
Melanie Green, CPS Energy
www.powermag.com
Technology continues to
evolve, and we anticipate a
continuing trend regarding the
impacts associated with net
metering and the introduction
of improved batteries and other energy storage devices.
T. Preston Gillespie, Jr., Duke Energy
dents who work in those areas seem to enjoy
the work and want to come back.
Gillespie: We have no real issues recruiting technical talent. An area where we are
finding it more difficult to attract talent and
experience is in the trades. We do see that retention rates may be changing, though.
How would you describe the level of
awareness, training, and response of
your plant staffs to both cyber and physical security threats?
Green: I believe we are well prepared for
www.powermag.com
23
Lalit Batra
Vinay Gupta
1. Actual and projected average Henry Hub natural gas prices per
MMBtu. Source: ICF International
Historical ICF projected
$10
$9
$8
$7
$6
Demand
surges &
exports
ramp up
$5
Coal and
nuclear
retirements
push demand
higher
$4
$3
$2
$1
Supply
rationalization
$0
2005
24
2010
2015
2020
2025
www.powermag.com
2030
Gas Dependency
The retirement of older, less-efficient units, is
expected to drive coals share of total generation
down to slightly above 35% by 2016, according
to projections from the ICForecast. Remaining
coal units will be newer, more efficient, and will
run at relatively higher capacity factors.
In 2015, the U.S. is expected to add nearly
11 GW of natural gasfired generation to replace retiring coal generation. The majority
of combined cycle builds, mainly dedicated
to baseload supply, will be located in PJM,
FRCC, and ERCOT. In addition, combustion
turbine builds will be needed to meet peak
and reserve margin requirements. The majority of combustion turbine builds will be in
PJM, SERC, and MISO regions.
The need for natural gas from the well to
the burner tip is providing huge opportunities
for companies in the exploration and production space, pipeline infrastructure development, and other natural gasdriven functions.
A recent report from the INGAA Foundation
projects that more than 432,000 jobs will be
required to build out sufficient infrastructure
between now and 2035.
Renewables are not expected to vastly
change the generation landscape or affect the
predominance of gas in the immediate future.
Wind and solar technologies will continue to
dominate the renewable build mix, but lower
capacity factors keep their expected share of
total generation nearly constant over time.
The ICForecast projects an additional 3.8
GW of wind and 3.5 GW of solar capacity
in 2015.
Beyond the two nuclear projects currently under development, which are suffering
from cost overruns and delays, nuclear is not
expected to play a major role in the future.
Prohibitive build costs, extensive regulation,
low gas prices, and low expected CO2 prices
make nuclear generation economically infeasible in the long run.
In short, natural gas continues to be the
driver of market dynamics, both for price
and generation build. There are many business opportunities for market participants to
engage in infrastructure-related development
and support activities in 2015 and beyond.
PwCs Fago sees heavy M&A activity continuing. Going forward, he said, we ex-
25
Regulatory Leverage
FirstEnergy Corp., based in Akron, Ohio, and
itself the product of a series of mergers of weak
electric companies into a presumably stronger
entity, is attempting what some observers have
suggested is a regulatory carve-out. The
company is proposing to essentially spin off
some of its largest coal-fired and nuclear generating assets in Ohio and Indiana from the
parent company to its Ohio distribution utilities. The utility subsidiaries would then sell
the output from the plants into the PJM Interconnections competitive wholesale market,
while serving the local retail customers under
conventional cost-based regulation.
FirstEnergy has been hammered in its bids
into the PJM capacity market in the last two
years, leaving its coal and nuclear generation
in a position of losing money. The companys
plan could offset losses in the competitive
market with stable rates in the regulated
market as a backstop. Cleveland newspaper
The Plain Dealer commented that the utility
is asking the Public Utilities Commission of
Ohio to approve what amounts to regulated
pricing from the power generated by some of
www.powermag.com
Michael Kotara
Mike Morris
he rate of introduction of new gas turbine products has accelerated, and the
speed of change creates challenges for
engineering, procurement, and construction
(EPC) contractors who are also coping with a
more-demanding labor market.
Consumers are the ultimate beneficiaries
of gas turbine improvements in efficiency,
flexibility, and power density, and power plant
owners are trying to keep up with the changing technology in order to offer affordable
and reliable electricity with ever-more-stringent emission constraints. Implementation of
new advanced technology often falls on the
EPC contractor, who is pressured for price
and schedule certainty while integrating the
new technology, often for the first time. The
stakes are often high, and it is not a game for
the meek.
Labor Crunch
Complicates the Gas
Turbine Arms Race
benefits to offset the risks. Once the technology decision is made, the owner usually turns
to the EPC contractors to share in some of
the risks of integrating the advanced technology turbines into an overall plant design,
accentuating all of the design enhancements
in starting times, faster ramp rates, and lower
minimum output while maintaining full emissions compliance.
currently sell all of their energy to CFE under 25-year contracts. The law says that the
new CFE will inherit these contracts, which
would continue at least until 2025, as IPPs
were incorporated into the electricity sector
beginning in 2000. As long as these contracts
remain in place, any new capacity would exist at the margins of a system that looks very
much like the current one. If existing contracts with IPPs are revoked, then existing
Got Gas?
The second condition for the successful entry of new IPP generation into the Mexican
electricity market is the availability of natural gas. Most recent capacity additions have
been combined cycle plants fueled by cheap
natural gas imported from the U.S. Pipelines
are currently operating at full capacity, and
electricity generation has been competing
with industry for natural gas supply, forcing
industry to resort to expensive imports of liquefied natural gas. A new pipeline from Agua
Dulce, Texas, is expected to come online by
the end of 2014, and applications for additional pipelines are aiming to more than double the previous volume of imports (about 1.8
billion cubic feet per day in 2013). The timing of these additions will determine the pace
of new generation coming online.
Whether Mexico offers attractive opportunities for private investment in electricity will be determined by the Market
Rules due to become public in 2015. These
rules should focus on adequately addressing CFEs market position such that new
generation can be built on the basis of
long-term contracts with large consumers
at competitive rates.
Grant Grothen
Block Andrews
Opportunities to Thrive
in Evolving Power
Market
cal driverssuch as fuel mix and renewables
integrationare resulting in seemingly conflicting market strategies.
regulatory initiatives, most of which are unlikely to be dampened by the recent change in
political direction, with the potential exception of the regulatory approach to addressing
climate change.
NUCLEAR
lmost a year ago, workers began pouring concrete for the basemat of the first
small modular reactor (SMR) in the
western hemisphere. Despite the hype over
SMRs in the U.S., with hundreds of millions
of Department of Energy dollars available in
a competition among several deep-pocketed
private-sector nuclear reactor designers over
the past several years, the concrete was not
flowing in the U.S. It was in Argentina.
Argentinas National Atomic Energy
Commission (CNEA) is building a 25-MW
unitknown as CAREM or Central Argentina de Elementos Modulares. It is a small, integrated, pressurized-water reactor some 60
miles northwest of Buenos Aires at the site of
the countrys two-unit Atucha nuclear plant
(Figure 1). CNEA says the CAREM unit,
with a capital cost of $446 million, should
begin cold testing in 2016 and go critical
in 2017. Given Argentinas past experience
with atomic power, that schedule may well
be optimistic. But the country is clearly on a
1. Groundbreaker. Last year, Argentina became the first nation to begin construction of
a small modular reactor with its 25-MW CAREM design at the Atucha nuclear plant. Courtesy:
National Atomic Energy Commission of Argentina
30
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According to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), some 40 SMRs are either under construction or have conceptual or
detailed designs around the world, with five
of those in the United States. But the U.S. has
fallen well behind in this field. In addition to
Argentina, which plans a 100-MW plant if
CAREM 25 works well, the leaders in the
SMR game are, in no particular order, Russia, China, and South Korea.
Two months after concrete began hardening in Argentina, China Nuclear Engineering
Corp. (CNEC) began pouring the basemat for
a demonstration 2-x-105-MW high-temperature gas-cooled reactor in Shandong province. Construction began a week later. World
Nuclear News reported, Another 19 of the
small modular reactors could follow. CNEC
is bullish on SMRs to supply power in vast
areas of the country that are now beyond the
reach of the Chinese electrical grid.
Russia has pursued small reactors for
a long time, and its KLT-40S is a unique
approach to the technology. Long under
development, this 2-x-35-MW light-water
reactor project is a barge-based, floating
nuclear plant. The first iteration is the Akademik Lomonosov, scheduled to be delivered to the Rosenergoatom nuclear utility
late next year. The project has been under
way for nearly a decade, accompanied by
hints of scandal, a shipyard bankruptcy,
and a cost by official Russian estimates of
$239 millionwhich some observers suspect is seriously understated.
Perhaps the most ambitious SMR program
can be found in South Korea, which calls
its 100-MW design the System-integrated
Modular Advanced Reactor, or SMART, designed by the Korea Atomic Energy Research
Institute (KAERI). According to an analysis
by the World Nuclear Organization (WNO),
KAERIs design could also be used for desalination, producing 90 MW of electricity
NUCLEAR
along with 40,000 cubic meters/day of freshwater. The design has won standardized approval from Koreas nuclear regulator, which
Korea Electric Power Co. touts as a selling
point in its literature (see sidebar). WNO
commented, While the design is complete,
the absence of any order for an initial reference unit has stalled development. KAERI
has said it wants to build a demonstration
plant to operate in 2017.
Long History
Small reactors are familiar to the nuclear industry, which began with small machines that
bulked up over the years to take advantage of
economies of scale. The legendary Shippingport nuclear plant in western Pennsylvania,
the first fully commercial pressurized-water
nuclear plant, entered service in 1957 and
was rated at 60 MW. The U.S. military and
the Soviet Union spent considerable sums in
the 1950s and 1960s on designs for small,
transportable, remote reactors and for reactors to be used in ship propulsion.
Many of todays SMR plans have their
roots in naval reactor technology, as did
Shippingport. Its technology was based on
Westinghouse reactors that powered the
first U.S. nuclear submarines. Argentinas
CAREM 25 reactor design came from the
Argentine navy. The country unveiled the
design at a 1984 IAEA conference. The project then got shelved, but was revived in 2006
Reactor vessel
support structure
Short on Results
What accounts for the inability of the U.S.
(and European, for that matter) market to embrace SMR technology, when less-developed
and lessfinancially muscular countries and
utilities are moving ahead?
Giorgio Locatelli of the UKs University
of Lincoln, who published a recent paper
on the economics of SMRs, Small Moduwww.powermag.com
Murky Future
University of Lincolns Locatelli noted that
it will take a first mover to get the SMR
market off the ground, and thats likely to
31
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NEW opportunities.
NEW connections.
NEW resources.
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Chicago, IL
NUCLEAR
come from outside the U.S. Historically,
he said, all nuclear reactors have looked
great on paper, but when they start to be
built, there could be trouble. So with some
designs there was massive cost escalation,
which is an issue for a private utility, but
if someone starts to build the reactor and
proves that it is possible to build on time and
on budget, then other utilities can be more
confident in their investment. At the moment, every utility is waiting for someone
else to be the first to build.
Where might the first mover be located?
If I was going to bet, said Locatelli, they
will build one in South Korea and the goal
there will be to prove that they can build faster and safer and then they can export. Another one will probably come up in Russia, but it
is a very peculiar market that is not open like
the United States.
Of the two-score SMR projects that
the IAEA is tracking, few are likely to
see the lights come on from their output.
Twenty-three are in either the conceptual
design or basic design categories, and
only three are actually under construction.
The remainder are classified as detailed
design. If history is a guide, many will
fail moving forward. That has long been
34
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RENEWABLE POWER
1. Hedged. The Black Oak Wind Farm project in western New York, shown in this photo
mock-up, is using a financial hedge to protect its investors against lower-than-expected output.
Courtesy: Black Oak Wind Farm
www.powermag.com
35
RENEWABLE POWER
tion, not wind speed.
Still, according to Taylor, several macro-factors have increased the attractiveness of wind hedges. As wind generation
has become a more mature industry, turbine hardware and development costs have
fallen and become more standardized. At
the same time, project outputs across the
industry have in many cases fallen well below projections, while some areas have experienced prolonged, unexpected periods
of low wind volume.
This latter factor has resulted in lenders
taking much more conservative approaches to
project loans, assuming worst-case-scenario
wind volumes. It is not unusual for wind farm
lenders to assume annual wind volumes that
are 30% (or more) below expected levels.
With assumed revenue being so much lower,
access to debt financing is restricted and the
cost of that debt can increase, perhaps to the
point of making the project uneconomic, as
Wells discovered.
Shifting Risk
Of course, a hedge is not just about reducing
one partys costs of financing. It also requires
a second party willing to take on that risk.
And its there that wind and solar hedging is
still in the early stages.
From one perspective, renewable risk hedging is attractive to large investors, because it
is not correlated with the performance of the
financial markets and is mean-reverting (in
other words, over time, wind volume will
tend to remain near historical averages). But
while the financial markets have a wide variety of parties willing take on all sorts of risks,
the opportunities for accessing wind volume
risk are limited because active risk-transfer
markets for it are limiteda party wishing to
offload the risk later may have trouble finding
a buyer. Taylor said that right now, reinsurance firms and large institutional investors, in
the form of investor-linked-securities funds,
are the main customers.
There are various ways such a hedge can
be constructed. One way in which wind
hedges differ from other hedges in the energy
sector is that longer terms are available, up to
10 years (as is the case for Black Oak). This
is because, in contrast to fuel price hedges,
in which uncertainty increases the further
out one goes, wind volume tends to become
more predictable over longer periods because
weather patterns are expected to revert to the
mean. This makes the risk for wind farm output more quantifiable.
Hedges can also be structured either as
swaps, where there is a single price point
(strike) determining which party pays
out, or as collars, where there are upper and
lower strikes, in between which neither par36
2. Cloudy record. Solar irradiance levels in the U.S. in summer 2014 were considerably
below average across much of the country, including in normally sunny areas such as Nevada
and California. Courtesy: 3TIER/Vaisala
RENEWABLE POWER
It therefore has a significant influence not
only on individual project sites but also on
the international standing of solar energy as a
viable investment proposition.
What this suggests is that even optimal
sites like Ivanpah can expect to see considerable variation in output. Worse, there
is a growing consensus among experts in
the field that reliance on only a few years
of data, or even a single year, in forecasting
renewable plant output places project owners at considerable risk of over- or underperformance in the long term. As datasets
grow, its become clear that anomalous levels of wind volume and solar irradiance can
persist for up to 10 years or more, and that,
like rainfall, periodic wind droughts can
be expected.
The problem goes beyond utility-scale
generation. One of the biggest current challenges for utilities in the western and southwestern U.S. is variable output from rooftop
solar panels. Yet very little data collection
exists to understand how much rooftop solar
power is being generated moment-to-moment. But an innovative project from Boulder, Colo.based Enduring Energy named
Solar Retina aims to change that.
The Solar Retina project hopes to gather
crowd-sourced information on rooftop solar
generation directly from homeowners in order to create a real-time, region-wide picture
of how much electricity is being generated.
Though still in the early stages, the project
shows potential.
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37
RENEWABLE POWER
n China, small hydropower (SHP) development not only provides power, especially to rural areas, but it also plays an
important role in developing local economies
and human capacity building. Regions, rather
than the central government, are responsible
for most planning, developing, and management of these smaller but essential systems,
which are designed to provide local power
for local communities. What follows is a
condensed version of the online feature The
Outlook for Small Hydropower in China
associated with this issue in the archives at
powermag.com.
Unique Circumstances
Several aspects of SHP development in China are different than in other countries. Many
have helped support the sectors development, although challenges remain.
Decentralized, local development and
management of SHP is one distinguishing
characteristic. While the development strategy, objectives, standards, guidelines, and
policies of SHP are formulated by the central government, other planning plus design,
development, operation, management, and
38
Challenges Ahead
As with most power generation development
projects, SHP development in China faces a
number of challenges.
Market Policy. Energy policy reforms
designed to reduce monopoly power, which
include the separation of generation and
transmission ownership, have made progress
but have also led to unexpected complications. For example, when competition in the
electricity market is intensified and is added
to external administrative intervention, electricity market confusion is likely to emerge
in SHP supply regions, especially because
rural electrification cooperatives are nonprofit electricity enterprises. For the future
of rural areas in China, a stable rural electricity market is needed.
Decentralizations
Disadvantages.
Given the small size of a single power station, SHP is a vulnerable industry. The development of SHP in the future depends
largely on whether its social benefits, environmental benefits, and welfare status will
be recognized by the entire society. Because
the whole society is the beneficiary of the social and environmental benefits derived from
SHP, it is reasonable to pay a certain price;
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TRAINING
Virtual Worlds
COMOS Walkinside is a powerful 3-D virtual
reality (VR) visualization software solution
that directly accesses all plant information to
display the current status of a plant in visually appealing and realistic 3-D graphics. It
does so by merging native files from diverse
data sources and proprietary formats. COMOS Walkinside automatically reads information on geometry, computer-aided design
(CAD) hierarchy, engineering database, and
textures during the conversion process from
the various CAD files, making initial 3-D
model creation and subsequent updates easy,
fast, and convenient (see sidebar).
www.powermag.com
39
TRAINING
COMOS Walkinside enables the use of
3-D engineering data from the basic and detail engineering phases to the as-built phase
during operations, providing completely
transparent real-time asset information
throughout the entire asset lifecycle. Highly
complex process plant 3-D CAD models can
be visualized immediately, while navigation
is easy and game-like.
Using COMOS Walkinside as a 3-D asset portal enables all project stakeholders and
decision-makers easy access to all plant information, thus ensuring a common and realtime understanding of a plants actual state.
That is why the COMOS database and COMOS Walkinside training tool are so valuable.
Whether used in conjunction or separately,
they both provide in-context accessibility to
2-D and 3-D asset data about task-specific activities required by various personnel.
1. Virtual world. 3-D models and diagrams help familiarize personnel with equipment
locations. Courtesy: Siemens COMOS Industry Solutions
in the 3-D model to ensure that actual information is available anytime and anywhere.
COMOS Walkinside also supports efficient remote plant operations. Experts do not
necessarily have to be on site, because they
can have access to data and documents from
nearly anywhere in the world through the
3-D asset portal. This feature can save a lot
of time, travel costs, and effort.
While cybersecurity for the 3-D model is
the owners responsibility, access requires
the correct software and hardware to visualize the 3-D model. The software and hardware must be obtained from Siemens and
passes many controls to avoid it falling into
unknown hands. Security is further enhanced
using secure hypertext transfer protocol and
virtual private networks. Training can be limited to local installations with no web-based
access required. Human avatars, representing
actual field operators, can be monitored in
www.powermag.com
TRAINING
ing SOPs from maintenance documentation
manuals, using an intuitive scenario editor,
while trainees can configure their own individual avatars.
Training several people in parallel using
the same 3-D model not only improves teambuilding and collaboration, but it also allows
lessons learned to be communicated more
easily between important stakeholders, such
as within a group of control room personnel
or among maintenance crew members.
This virtual training can be used for familiarization with the basic plant environment (such
as locations of valves, piping, and equipment)
and can be deepened by practice of SOPs (Figure 1). Operating behavior and composure during unscheduled events such as fire, gas leaks,
or accidents can be tested with the ITS and the
desired actions taught through specific exercises (Figure 2). Optimally trained personnel help
to substantially minimize the risks of incidents
or unplanned shutdowns.
78
Percentage
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
20
10
10
0
Simulation
Audiovisual
Reading
Lectures
4. The workflow process. Creating and publishing 3-D virtual reality models is quick and
easy. Courtesy: Siemens COMOS Industry Solutions
Under simulated smoke and fire with computational fluid dynamics, an accurate overlay
on the 3-D model of smoke dispersion patterns under variable wind directions provides
unique experiences where sound cues from
rotating equipment can help direct operators
to safety when their visibility is impaired. The
memory of having been in a particular dj vu
situation before is a powerful experience that
cannot be realized in conventional training
environments, where it is difficult to increase
stress levels, such as by surrounding the field
operator with smoke, playing loud alarms,
showing a dangerous spill on the floor, or presenting a man-down situationwhere reflexes may stand in the way of implementing
preestablished procedures. The exercise can
potentially mean the difference between life
and death during an emergency.
Stress jolts memory and boosts retention
rate during training. Hence, it is easy to understand why a photo-realistic environment
can deliver much higher retention rates than
conventional training; some studies suggest
that students remember no more than 6%
to 10% of their training material after six
months when reading and lectures are the
training mode (Figure 3).
In addition, for each rehearsed procedure,
access to information about plant equipment
in the COMOS database can be generated
from the 3-D VR model, such as maintenance
history, equipment manufacturers specifications, and recommended maintenance or replacement procedures. The position of the
equipment in the P&ID, engineering instruction and control schematics, and process flow
diagrams helps the operator, teammates, and
supervisor share the same information about
mission-critical procedures, such as lockout/
tagout of subsystems and bypass of sensitive portions of the plant. (To view a video
of the 3-D visualization system, go to: bit.
ly/1ve7TlQ.)
The system faithfully and realistically
represents the actual plant and its associated
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TRAINING
TOTAL Exploration and Production (E&P) offers one example of
a successful installation. The company uses the COMOS Walkinside
solution to train operators for its floating production storage and offloading vessels. In one survey, 92% of the students who used the
system evaluated the training as very useful and interesting.
If you participate in ITS, you have less loss of production due to
human error; we minimize the loss of production, said Nicolas Tarisse, field operations training manager at TOTAL E&P. As a result,
the company believes it is able to increase efficiency, improve safety,
lower risk, and increase asset uptime, which enhances its return on
investment.
FREE
On Demand
Webinars
powermag.com/power-webinars
POWER magazine produces
webinars on topics of critical
importance to the power
generation industry. Its not
too late to participate in a live
webinar or download any of
the on demand webinars at
Manuel Keldenich ([email protected]) is product marketing manager for COMOS Plant Engineering Software
at Siemens.
powermag.com/power-webinars
24759
42
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EMISSIONS
History Lesson
Single-phase power supplies have been a
power industry norm for ESPs for more than
60 years. Analog automatic voltage control
and silicon-controlled rectifiers were the single-phase design standard for years, although
many systems now use microprocessors running proprietary control algorithms to provide
more precise control of the power applied to
the ESP. However, the single-phase power
supply still produces a voltage waveform that
contains a significant amount of ripple. Ripple
is residual variation from the desired smooth
waveform when converting from alternating
to direct current in the power supply.
44
1. Performance matters. At this southeast Asia plant, a dry electrostatic precipitator (ESP) is installed on a 660-MW boiler.
Globally, the most common way to improve
ESP performance is to boost corona power.
Source: Babcock and Wilcox Power Generation Group Inc.
EMISSIONS
2. Performance comparison. The VI curve for the single-phase base case and two lowripple power supplies are compared. The two low-ripple options produce 20% higher voltage,
thus producing higher ESP particulate removal rates. Source: Babcock and Wilcox Power Generation Group Inc.
1. Single phase 2. 3-phase 3. Switch mode
2,000
Sparking limit
1,500
1,000
500
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
structed that considered the entire mechanical configuration of the ESP. For example,
different discharge electrodes were configured at various plate spacing, and ESP problems such as close clearances and tracking
insulators were studied.
One example of the results of laboratory
testing compares the benefits of a low-ripple
power supply (Figure 2). In each test, the
power supply was operated from zero power
to the point where sparking occurred in the
ESP, and then a typical average voltagecurrent (VI) curve was plotted. The selected
discharge electrode and the physical configuration of the ESP determined the shape of the
VI curve and, as expected, the three power
supplies track along the same curve.
In all three cases, ESP sparking occurred
at 71 kV, which limited the power supply
from producing higher voltage. The high
ripple on the output voltage of the singlephase power supply (shown as 1 in Figure
1) is clear. The peak voltage was 71 kV with
an average 57 kV, which produces a peak-toaverage-voltage ratio of about 1.2. For the
low ripple three-phase and high-frequency
SMPS (points 2 and 3, respectively) also
operated with a peak 71 kV voltage and an
average 71 kV, the peak-to-average-voltage
ratio is ~1.0. A reduction in the peak-toaverage-voltage ratio from 1.2 to 1.0 results
in a 20% increase in voltage. The net result
46
EMISSIONS
3. Performance testing. The ESP used as the test bed consists of two boxes, each with
four fields and two power supplies per field. The low-frequency, three-phase power supply was
tested in one of the ESP fields. The field test showed the three-phase power supply produced
an average 50% higher power in the ESP compared to the single-phase precipitator power supply. This suggests that the low-frequency three-phase power supply can produce higher ESP
collection efficiencies. Source: Babcock and Wilcox Power Group Inc.
+ 1A-1 kW (Pre) 1A-1 3 kW (Post)
90
Gas flow
80
70
60
ESP chamber
layout
50
kW
40
30
20
10
0
175
185
195
205
215
225
MW
235
245
255
265
275
s premium product
www.powermag.com
47
EMISSIONS
System Cost. Capital cost is also a significant consideration in the selection process of
ESP power supplies, and the differences are
significant. For example, if the single-phase
power supply cost is 1.0, then the relative cost
for a like-sized high-frequency SMPS ranges
from 1.49 to 2.31. A like-size low-frequency
three-phase power supplys relative cost is
only 1.12 to 1.17.
Also, because the high-frequency power
supply designs are fully integrated, there is
less field wiring, so installation costs are less
than for the low-frequency option. Balancing
those installation cost benefits for the SMPS
are the increased capital costs for active cooling, environmental protection of the equipment, and higher overall maintenance cost.
System Reliability. The predicted reliability of a power supply is difficult to
quantify. The reliability track record of the
single-phase ESP power supply is excellent,
and many installations have been in service
for over 40 years. This is a reliability benchmark that low-ripple power supply designs
must match. Anecdotal evidence finds that
high-frequency power supplies have experienced a poor reliability record; although
it has improved in recent years, it remains
lower than for single-phase designs.
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FUNDAMENTALS
The most basic analysis, a short proximate, will typically consist of the heating
value, moisture, ash, and sulfur in the fuel.
This is a barely acceptable analysis, which
will only allow one to make general estimates about the plant performance.
A full proximate analysis will add volatile matter and fixed carbon to the results, which can be useful for determining
unburned carbon, CO production, coal
fineness requirements, excess air requirements, and the like.
An ultimate analysis will provide the carbon,
hydrogen, nitrogen, sulfur, ash, moisture,
oxygen, and (sometimes) chlorine. With this
analysis one can determine combustion air
1. Whats really on that train? Not having an accurate measure of your fuel quality is
like grocery shopping blindfolded. Courtesy: Una Nowling
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49
FUNDAMENTALS
2. Ignorance is not bliss. The wrong coal was delivered for a test burn, and no analysis
was done to provide operators with a warning. By Day 4, a clinker approximately 10 x 20 x 4 feet
formed on the freeboard area, falling during turndown and destroying the bottom ash hopper.
Courtesy: Una Nowling
and flue gas calculations, calculate boiler efficiency, estimate NOx production, and estimate boiler tube corrosion rates.
An ash mineral analysis will provide a
breakdown of the minerals contained in
the ash on an elemental scale. An ash mineral analysis will assist in predicting slagging and fouling in the boiler, ash erosion
and corrosion, ash resistivity for collection
in electrostatic precipitators, and more.
A Hardgrove Grindability Index (HGI)
analysis will assist in determining the expected mill capacity.
Other tests are often conducted on a sitespecific basis, such as testing the free swelling
index, ash viscosity T250 temperature, sulfur forms,
and even computer-controlled scanning electron microscopy (CCSEM) to determine the
mineral forms and quantities in the fuel. With
all of these types of analysis, accurate processes
and data recording are essential (see sidebar).
50
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FUNDAMENTALS
to understand how typical the fuel is compared to its peers.
For example, a Powder River Basin (PRB)
coal with a moisture content of 10% and
higher heating value of 12,500 Btu/lb should
immediately raise a red flag. As you collect
analyses of fuels in your career, you should
build a knowledge base using a spreadsheet
or database that can allow for a quick external consistency comparison.
performing analyses on two different samples. However, given the importance of moisture on your engineering calculations, its a
problem you should work to resolve.
Is the ash content suspiciously low?
Are the oxidizing ash fusion temperatures higher than the reducing ones? This
should be the case for nearly all coals and biomass fuels. However, petroleum coke and some
biomass fuels can see these trends reversed.
Is chlorine in ppm, or %? If chlorine is only
listed in the trace element or another analysis, it
can sometimes be omitted from consideration.
This is a critical mistake when analyzing highchloride fuels. Note that if chlorine is included
with the trace element analysis, it is typically on
a whole-coal dry basis.
Is the ash mineral analysis on an SO3free basis? Some laboratories list the ash
Analysis Matters
To convert an as-received analysis value
to dry:
Valuedry = Valuewet x (100 / (100 moisture, %))
Does it use air-dried basis? Air-dried base
results are sometimes impossible to convert to a
wet or dry basis, because one requires the
as-received moisture content in addition to the
air-dried moisture for completeness. Often one
of these is omitted from the analysis.
To a large extent, the errors in your fuel analysis will set the minimum level of error in any
plant calculations that depend upon the fuel
quality. A 5% error in your higher heating value will result in a minimum 5% error in your
fuel burn rate calculations, said error cascading through to your airflow, flue gas flow, mill
throughput, emissions, and other calculations.
Sometimes fuel analyses are not conducted
due to a lack of time to carry out and conduct
the analysis. Determining the frequency of
sampling will depend on the fuel-related conwww.powermag.com
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BOILERS
20,000 - 400,000 #/Hr.
847-541-5600
FAX: 847-541-1279
WEB SITE: www.wabashpower.com
wabash
POWER
EQUIPMENT CO.
Layup Desiccant
Dehumidification
& Filtration Units
for long term layup
of power generation
equipment. For over
35 years of drying
solutions contact:
Tom Haarala
612-202-0765
[email protected]
Todd Bradley
810-229-7900
[email protected]
www.cdims.com
www.powermag.com
53
ADVERTISERS INDEX
Enter reader service numbers on the FREE Product Information Source card in this issue.
Reader
Service
Number
Page
Reader
Service
Page Number
ADA-Carbon Solutions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48 . . . . . . . . 7
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Cover 4 . . . . . 9
MD&A
www.ada-cs.com
CB&I
www.mdaturbines.com
..................................................... 3 ........ 2
www.cbi.com
www.psa.mhps.com
Enerfab . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 . . . . . . . . 5
Rentech. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Cover 2 . . . . . 1
www.enerfab.com
www.rentechboilers.com
Southern Environmental . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 . . . . . . . . 6
www.mobilindustial.com
www.southernenvironmental.com
Fluor Corp . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 . . . . . . . . 4
www.fluor.com
www.teaminc.com
POWER
54
www.powermag.com
Topics include shale gas development outlook and challenges, how shale gas can help an
economy, Europe embracing shale, the natural gas trade, utility options for leveraging natural gas,
plus much more.
This guidebook contains information on the follow topics:
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In little more than a decade, the discovery of economic methods to extract natural gas from shale
has exploded traditional assumptions about the worlds energy future and reversed trends across
the power business. But the shift has only just be-gun, and more big changes are on the way.
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For many utilities there is a razor-thin difference in the price of electricity generated by natural
gas and by coal. Slight changes in fuel price can therefore produce dramatic swings in production
costs, creating market opportunities for utilities with both gas- and coal-fired assets and assured
fuel supplies. Utilities considering new gas-fired assets have several options.
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COMMENTARY
A Hidden Threat
The basic problem is that the type of threat that is emerging
is new; there is little existing organizational or administrative
structure in government or private industry to deal with it.
It is compounded by the secrecy surrounding cyber weapons
strategies, which, unlike conventional and nuclear weapons,
depend almost entirely on secrecy. Nations develop and employ them but virtually never talk about them; companies find
them on their infrastructure but are reluctant to admit having
been attacked.
The notion that cyber weapons could be used to take down
power grids is not new, but it first received widespread public
attention in June of 2010, when reports began to surface that
a virus called Stuxnet had attacked the supervisory control and
data acquisition (SCADA) system controlling Iranian nuclear centrifuges and eventually destroyed their hardware. Two particular
aspects of the attack drew the attention of the electricity industry. The first was that, as the virus was destroying hardware, it
remained undetected on the system for years. The second was
that the Siemens SCADA infrastructure that it took over was
similar to the systems that control much of the worlds electrical
infrastructure. In the wake of Stuxnet, the electricity industry
began to look inward and discovered that Stuxnet and other malware were resident on a large proportion of their own industrial
control systems.
Potentially Catastrophic Consequences
From the perspective of national security, the discovery that
North American electricity infrastructure is infested with malware designed to destroy hardware was momentous. The U.S.
grid is built around a small number of ultra-high-voltage transformers and other difficult-to-replace physical choke points. It
would be extremely tough, but far from impossible, to turn off
sensors on equipment or use other methods that would lead
to the simultaneous destruction of large portions of the grids
generation and transmission capability. In some scenarios,
such an attack would leave most of the country without power
for months or years.
The effects of this type of outage would be catastrophic. In
the first few minutes of a national outage, virtually all commerce would cease as electronic systems went down. Gasoline
pumps would stop. Telephones, including those used by government and emergency responders, would quickly cease functioning. Cities that use electricity to pump water would lose
56
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www.mhpowersystems.com
www.psa.mhps.com
[email protected]
CIRCLE 8 ON READER SERVICE CARD
Precision
high-speed balance