UK Short Mobile 2008
UK Short Mobile 2008
UK Short Mobile 2008
Ad ti regulation
l ti for
f a
mobile,, wireless world
David Stewart, Competition Policy Director
20 March 2009
Content
1
Ofcom is re-assessing our approach to mobile issues
Principal Should Ofcom revise its approach to regulation of the mobile sector, in order to
question
ti respond to the changing market environment?
Primary
What are the How are What are the What is the scope
questions
q
i li ti
implications off consumers and purposes of for
market change citizens affected mobile deregulation, com
for mobile and by developments regulation, and petition and
wireless in the mobile where should its innovation in the
services?
i ? sector? focus lie? mobile sector?
2
Content
3
Total UK mobile take-up
99.5
80 88.0
40 73.2 76.3 50
65.5 69.8 Connections
52.8 59 7
59.7 per 100
49.5
20 population
0 0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
By household (Q4 08)
Mobile: 92%
Source: Ofcom / operators Fixed: 85%
Note: Includes estimates where Ofcom does not receive data from operators Internet: 67%
Broadband: 60%
4
UK telecoms industry retail revenue
5 year
CAGR
29.1 30.4 30.5 3.1%
28.4
ail revenue (£bn)
10
Reta
Sou ce Ofcom
Source: O co / operators
ope a o s
•2008 data includes estimates for 2008
Some historic figures have been revised due to reallocation of revenues
5
Share of total UK fixed and mobile telecoms connections
100%
nections
11 0
11.0 10.5
60% 13.8 10.6 10.9 10.9 - 0.37%
14.1 15.0 15.9 16.0 16.9 4.21%
13.7 14.0
40% 14.5
5.3 5.0 13.9 14.8
45
4.5 14.8 1.48%
4.2 4.2
20% 4.2
32.7 29.4 26.0 22.8 20.8 18.8 - 10.46%
0%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
25% O2 25%
T Mobile
Vodafone Vodafone
20%
are of subscrptions
20% Orange
Share of subscriptions
Orange
T Mobile
15% 15%
Sha
10% 10%
Virgin
5% Three 5% Three
Tesco
0% BT 0%
1
1
Q
Q
04
05
06
07
08
04
05
06
07
08
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Source:
So rce Ofcom / operators
Note: Includes estimates where Ofcom does not receive data from operators
7
Fi d and
Fixed d mobile
bil call
ll volumes
l
CAGR
300
247 255 2.5%
Call minutes (billions) a
44 49 54 61 72 79 12.3%
200
15 15 17 21 27 31 16.3%
100
167 164 160 151 148 145 -2.8%
0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008*
Fixed Mobile pre-pay Mobile contract
8
Outbound SMS volumes
120 117
und SMS (billions)
62.3 Monthly
20 45.8 outbound SMS
26.8 35.2
17.6 22.2 per capita
0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
9
The changing consumer behaviour
10
Content
11
The underlying networks are moving towards NGN
M i ffrom convergence att the
Moving th core, towards
t d end
d tto end
d IP networks
t k
Phase I: Phase II: Phase III:
Core convergence Edge convergence Full convergence
Converged
g core All IP core networks
networks
12
The mobile value-chain is changing
Geo
13
Internet brands are increasing their presence in the
mobile
bil market
k
Online brands in the mobile space Mobile internet brands
14
Mobile will be more like fixed internet, but also different
Today: mobile network at the centre Future: separation of content and ‘pipe’?
15
For consumers, this could mean more choice – but also
more complexity
l i
Possible Implications for consumers
16
Content
17
Emerging findings
• Overall
• Role of competition
• Role of regulation
• Innovation
• Investment
18
Actions and implications
• Competition
• Consumers
• Access
• Spectrum
p
• Coverage
• Termination rates
19
We are consulting on options for reform of MTRs
• 6 options considered:
– Complete de-regulation
– LRIC+ (as today)
– LRMC (similar to Recommendation)
– Capacity-based charging (similar to internet access)
– Reciprocity btw fixed and mobile (similar to US)
– True bill-and-keep (similar to internet peering)
20
Questions?