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In Weather Modification
A Report to the
Interdepartmental Committee for
Atmospheric Sciences
bY
Homer E. Newell
Associate Administrator for Space Science and Application
National Aeronautics Si Space Administration
Washington, D.C.
Interdepartmental Committee
for
Atmospheric Sciences
n
0
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0
0
E
m
"I.
Department of Defense
G-T.
SEABORG
A t d c Energy Camlssion
J. HERBERT H O L U X W
Department of Camerce
LELAND J. HAwOR!CE
Rational Science Foundation
PHILIP Re LEE
JAMES E. WEBB
THCWS F. BATES
GEORGEL. MEHRW
Department of Agriculture
Department of State
Arms
JR. (Observer)
Control and Disarmament Agency
HERBFST SCOVIIU,
CHARtES V. KIDD
Executive Secretary
J. HEREERT H O L L W N I chsim
Federal Council f o r Science and Technology
UZUND J. HAWORTH, Vice Chairman
THMlDoRE C. B m Y
Department of Agriculture
Department of Camnerce
DONALD M. MCARTMm
Department of Defense
RICHARD A. PRINDU
HaMERE.
De-nt
HERMAN mucic
JOSEWD. BLATT
Federal Aviation Agency
RO[BERTM.
WHITE
Department of State
LEE
m m m
THaMAs F. BATES
of the Interior
smmmw. BETlls
CLAY'IQR E. JWSEN (Observer)
Executive Secretary
Office of the Federal Coordinator for
hieteo-ogicd.
Services and S u ~ ~ o r t i n g
Research
20230
J. Herbert Hollomon
Chairman
bY
Homer E. Newel1
Associate Administrator for Space Science and Applications
lVational Aeronadcs A Space Administration
Washington, D.C.'
1 October 1966
INTRODUCTION
The earth'sJeather has a profound influence on
agriculture, forestry, water resources, industry, commerce, transportation, construction, field operations,
commercial fishing, and many other human activities.
Adverse effects of weather on man's activities and the
earth's resources are extremely costly, amounting to
billions of dollars per year, sometimes causing
irreparable damage as when human lives are lost in
severe storms. There is, therefore, great motivation
to develop effective countermeasures against the
destructive effects of weather, and, conversely, to
enhance the beneficial aspects. The financial and
other benefits to human welfare of being able to
modify weather to augment water supplies, reduce
lightning, suppress hail, mitigate tornados, and
inhibit the full development of hurricanes would be
very great.
Over the past twenty years experiments have been
conducted on weather modification, particularly on the
effects of seedinq
- clouds with such materials as
silver iodide crystals. The results are limited.
Under suitable circumstances it has been possible to
augment precipitation by ten to twenty percent, and to
reduce the frequency of fire-producing lightning
strokes. Effects on hail production have been noted,
sometimes suppression and sometimes augmentation.
These results probably would be of only passing interest
were it not for the potential importance to mankind
of further progress in this field. Perhaps the most
significant result of the experiments to date has been
to bring about a change in attitude from one of
skeptici9m to one of cautious optimism. The limited
success to date is encouraging, and underscores the
* Final Report of the Panel on Weather and Climate Modification to the Committee on Atmospheric Sciences, National
Academy of qciences-National Research Council; "Weather
and Climate Modification," Volume I-Summary and Recommendations, Publication No. 1350, 1966, pg vii
With the growing conviction of positive and potential results, a number of government agencies have been
developing plans for research and ultimately operational
programs in weather and climate modification. Some of
these plans stem from the desire to use weather modification to meet specific mission responsibilities such
as development of water resources, protection
of
__
__ crops,
protection against forest fires, ecc:
Other plans stem
m dire= responsibility for furthering our understanding of weather and its uses. A summary report,
"Present and Future Plans of Federal Agencies in
Weather-Climate Modification," dated June 20, 1966, was
prepared for the Interdepartmental Committee for
Atnospheric Sciences (ICAS) by a Select Panel on Weather
Modification (App. 111). -Whereas the ICAS Select Panel
report reflected a desirable vigor in pressing forward
in this important field, nevertheless, it raised a
number of questions as to the soundness and adequacy of
proposed plans, the validity of cost estimates, the
availsbility of trained people to meet the schedules
proposed, overlapping of research activities, duplication
of proposed facilities, responsibility for coordination
and reporting, and responsibility for regulation and
control.
To discharge its responsibilities, ICAS must provide
answers to these questions and make appropriate recommendations. T o this end, the Chairman of ICAS, Dr. Herbert
Hollomon, asked me to review the proposed plans and to
submit recommendations that might be adopted by ICAS for
a report to Dr. Donald F. Hornig, Director of the Office
of Science and Technology, Executive Office of the President.
TERMS OF REFERENCE FOR T H I S STUDY
M o d i f i c a t i o n Program a l o n g t h e l i n e s d e l i n e a t e d i n t h e
r e p o r t of t h e ICAS S e l e c t P a n e l on Weather M o d i f i c a t i o n .
APPROACH
e x p e r t t h i n k i n g on t h e s u b j e c t . I n o r d e r t o p e n e t r a t e
i n s u f f i c i e n t d e p t h i n t o t h e problems i n v o l v e d , I p u t
t o g e t h e r a p a n e l of NASA e x p e r k s , the c o n s t i t u t i o n of
which i s g i v e n i n App. V. W e m e t a number of t i m e s w i t h
r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s from t h e Department of A g r i c u l t u r e , t h e
Environmental S c i e n c e S e r v i c e s A d m i n i s t r a t i o n ( E S S A ) , t h e
I n t e r i o r D e p a r t m e n t ' s Bureau of Reclamation, and t h e
N a t i o n a l S c i e n c e Foundation (NSF), t o hear b r i e f i n g s on
program p l a n s and b u d g e t s , t o d i s c u s s proposed s c h e d u l e s ,
s t a f f i n g , f a c i l i t y c o n s t r u c t i o n , and o p e r a t i o n s , and t o
review i n s o m e d e t a i l t h e v a l i d i t y o f c o s t estimates.
W e r e c e i v e d from t h e s e a g e n c i e s a c o n s i d e r a b l e volume of
s u p p o r t i n g documentation. Appendix V a l s o i n c l u d e s a
chronology of P a n e l m e e t i n g s , and a l i s t of m a t e r i a l
reviewed by t h e Panel.
I e l e c t e d t o c o n c e n t r a t e a t t e n t i o n on t h e above
f o u r a g e n c i e s , s i n c e t h e i r programs, a s set f o r t h i n
t h e ICAS S e l e c t Panel R e p o r t , p r o j e c t t o over 98% of
t h e t o t a l n a t i o n a l weather m o d i f i c a t i o n a c t i v i t y i n
1970. Because t h e programs of t h e Department of Defense,
t h e F e d e r a l A v i a t i o n Agency, and t h e N a t i o n a l A e r o n a u t i c s
and Space A d m i n i s t r a t i o n w e r e such a s m a l l p a r t o f t h e
t o t a l , t h e y w e r e n o t reviewed i n d e t a i l .
I n a s s e s s i n g t h e v a l i d i t y o f cost e s t i m a t e s , I
sought t o d e t e r m i n e r e a l i s t i c and r e a s o n a b l e orders of
magnitude.
P a r t i c u l a r a t t e n t i o n was p a i d t o a s s e s s i n g
5
t h e r e a l i s m of t h e estimates of manpower r e s o u r c e s and
a v a i l a b i l i t y , and t h e i r impact on p o s s i b l e r a t e s of growth.
I a l s o sought t o s e p a r a t e those areas meriting e a r l y
a t t e n t i o n from t h o s e of a l o n g e r range n a t u r e t h a t could
be approached m o r e slowly.
The o b s e r v a t i o n s and recommendations c o n t a i n e d i n
t h e f o l l o w i n g s e c t i o n s a r e based on t h e P a n e l reviews
and d e l i b e r a t i o n s . I t should be emphasized t h a t t h e
recommendations d e a l w i t h t h e major problems, on .the
assumption t h a t i f t h e major problems a r e r e s o l v e d t h e
r e m a i n i n g p i e c e s can be f i t t e d i n t o p l a c e .
RECOMMENDED P R IN C IP L E S
C e r t a i n p r i n c i p l e s w e r e developed which u n d e r l i e
It i s recommended t h a t
t h e program recommendations.
these p r i n c i p l e s be a c c e p t e d i n t h e development of the
N a t i o n a l Weather M o d i f i c a t i o n Program.
It i s i n t e n d e d
t h a t t h e p r i n c i p l e s a p p l y t o a l l a g e n c i e s involved i n
weather m o d i f i c a t i o n a c t i v i t i e s , and n o t j u s t t o t h o s e
whose programs are d i s c u s s e d i n d e t a i l i n t h i s r e p o r t ,
The p r i n c i p l e s a r e :
1.
There i s s u f f i c i e n t p o t e n t i a l payoff i n d i c a t e d
b y t h e r e s u l t s of p a s t r e s e a r c h t o j u s t i f y
c o n t i n u i n g b a s i c and a p p l i e d r e s e a r c h i n the
area of weather m o d i f i c a t i o n .
2.
The p o t e n t i a l d o l l a r s a v i n g s i n l e s s e n i n g the
weather m o d i f i c a t i o n , p r o p e r l y r e l a t e d t o
weather o b s e r v a t i o n and weather r e s e a r c h .
(Such
a l e a d agency would, however, n o t have a u t h o r i t y
t o c o n t r o l t h e c o n t e n t of o t h e r agency programs.)
4.
It is of v a l u e and d e s i r a b l e t o m a i n t a i n m u l t i p l e
agency approach t o weather m o d i f i c a t i o n r e s e a r c h
and a p p l i c a t i o n , w i t h independent f u n d i n g f o r
the d i f f e r e n t agencies.
5.
An agency t h a t h a s a major m i s s i o n r e s p o n s i b i l i t y
r e q u i r i n g weather m o d i f i c a t i o n , f o r example,
augmenting w a t e r r e s o u r c e s or minimizing f o r e s t
f i r e s , must be an a c t i v e p a r t i c i p a n t i n t h e
t o t a l weather m o d i f i c a t i o n program, b u t w i t h
t h e a g e n c y ' s m i s s i o n f o c u s i n g and b r o a d l y
defining its activity.
6.
To a c h i e v e t h e m o s t e f f e c t i v e a p p l i c a t i o n of
weather m o d i f i c a t i o n t o i t s m i s s i o n o b j e c t i v e s ,
a m i s s i o n agency must u n d e r s t a n d t h e b a s i c
problems, and hence must be i n v o l v e d s i g n i f i c a n t l y i n r e l a t e d research.
Thus, w h i l e t h e
a g e n c y ' s m i s s i o n should f o c u s i t s p a r t i c i p a t i o n
i n the weather m o d i f i c a t i o n program, t h e m i s s i o n
should n o t t o o narrowly c o n f i n e t h a t p a r t i c i p a tion.
7.
The v a r i o u s a g e n c i e s p a r t i c i p a t i n g i n t h e
weather m o d i f i c a t i o n program must s u p p o r t each
o t h e r w i t h t h e i r e x p e r i e n c e and c a p a b i l i t i e s .
I n a r e a s where s e v e r a l f e d e r a l a g e n c i e s have
needs f o r l a b o r a t o r i e s and l a r g e f a c i l i t i e s , j o i n t
u s e should be made of such f a c i l i t i e s . S i m i l a r l y ,
e x i s t i n g competence s h o u l d , i n g e n e r a l , be used by
o t h e r agencies r a t h e r than duplicated. I n
p a r t i c u l a r , t h e c e n t r a l agency h a v i n g r e s p o n s i b i l i t y
f o r f o c u s i n g the n a t i o n a l program i n t o a p r o p e r l y
b a l a n c e d and i n t e g r a t e d t o t a l must n o t a t t e m p t t o
do e v e r y t h i n g i t s e l f f o r everybody: r a t h e r , it
s h o u l d b u i l d j u d i c i o u s l y upon t h e a c t i v i t i e s ,
c a p a b i l i t i e s , a n d ' m i s s i o n r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s of
t h e various p a r t i c i p a t i n g agencies.
8.
9:
OBSERVATIONS
I found t h a t the budget f i g u r e s i n t h e I C A S s e l e c t
P a n e l Report d i d n o t r e f l e c t t h e c u r r e n t s t a t u s of
Indicated rates
agency program a n a l y s i s and planning.
of growth i n the s e l e c t P a n e l Report w e r e u n r e a l i s t i c a l l y
h i g h , i n s o m e cases by a f a c t o r of t w o o r more.
A s w e l l as I could d e t e r m i n e , t h e v a r i o u s a g e n c i e s
a r e counting i n l a r g e measure on u s i n g t h e same people
a t v a r i o u s c o n t r a c t o r s and u n i v e r s i t i e s t o h e l p c a r r y
o u t the planned programs. ESSA a p p e a r s t o have t h e
k i n d and q u a n t i t i e s of people r e q u i r e d t o mount a
vigorous program i n weather m o d i f i c a t i o n r e s e a r c h , b u t
t h e a b i l i t y t o b u i l d up program a c t i v i t y a t a n y t h i n g l i k e
t h e proposed r a t e s would depend upon whether t h e s e people
can a c t u a l l y be r e a s s i g n e d from t h e i r p r e s e n t d u t i e s .
I n g e n e r a l t h e r e was a l a r g e d i s p a r i t y between p r o j e c t e d
manpower a v a i l a b i l i t i e s and r e q u i r e m e n t s . T h i s s e r v e s t o
emphasize t h a t proposed r a t e s of program growth a r e
indeed t o o h i g h , and a l s o t h a t a vigorous e f f o r t should
be made t o i n c r e a s e t h e t o t a l n a t i o n a l competence i n t h e
weather m o d i f i c a t i o n f i e l d .
I n g e n e r a l , t h e proposed program c o n t e n t f o r a l l
f o u r a g e n c i e s a p p e a r s sound, being based on a s s e s s m e n t s of
p o t e n t i a l p r a c t i c a l r e t u r n s , or on a r e c o g n i t i o n of t h e
need f o r r e s e a r c h . Except f o r q u e s t i o n s of u n d e s i r a b l e
d u p l i c a t i o n , my c r i t i c i s m l i e s n o t i n t h e s u b j e c t cont e n t of proposed programs, b u t r a t h e r i n t h e a r e a s o f
program p h a s i n g , proposed r a t e s of growth, and t h e
v a l i d i t y of d o l l a r estimates.
10
Major T h r u s t o f P r o q r a m
I t i s recommended t h a t t h e major t h r u s t o f the
N a t i o n a l Program i n Weather M o d i f i c a t i o n f o r t h e
immediate f u t u r e be i n t h e d i r e c t i o n of unders t a n d i n g t h e p h y s i c s and dynamics of weather
systems t o p r o v i d e a sound b a s i s f o r experimentat i o n i n and a p p l i c a t i o n of weather m o d i f i c a t i o n .
T h i s w i l l r e q u i r e programs of f i e l d experimentat i o n t o extend and a p p l y t h e r e s u l t s of l a b o r a t o r y
and t h e o r e t i c a l research.
Budqet
1.
I t i s recommended t h a t t h e a g e n c i e s p a r t i c i -
Panel Report.
Because the v a r i o u s a g e n c i e s w e r e unable t o p r o v i d e
firm budget e s t i m a t e s , I w a s i n no p o s i t i o n t o d e v e l o p
a d e f i n i t i v e budget.
I have, however, p l o t t e d s o m e
t r e n d s i n F i g . 2 of App. V I w h i c h q u a n t i t a t e i n a rough
way my recommendations r e l a t i v e t o t h e s p e c i f i c agency
programs. The number3 used w e r e a r r i v e d a t from d i s c u s s i o n s w i t h t h e a g e n c i e s and among o u r s e l v e s . The
numbers may w e l l have t o be changed a f t e r t h e a g e n c i e s
have completed t h e i r a n a l y s e s of a c t u a l requirements:
11
i n t h e m e a n t i m e , t h e s e may be t a k e n a s i n d i c a t i n g my
j u d g m e n t a s t o r e a s o n a b l e orders o f m a g n i t u d e .
D e p a r t m e n t o f A q r i c u l t u r e Proqram
I b e l i e v e t h a t a weather m o d i f i c a t i o n program o f
categories :
1.
2.
D i r e c t m o d i f i c a t i o n o f weather
E c o l o g i c a l a n d s u p p o r t i n g research
T h e s e r e l a t e i n the main t o t h e s u p p r e s s i o n o f s p e c i f i c
h a r m f u l e f f e c t s o f weather phenomena, a n d a s t u d y o f
t h e e f f e c t s o f weather m o d i f i c a t i o n upon f a r m a n d f o r e s t
crops a n d o n l a n d management i n g e n e r a l .
The d i r e c t w e a t h e r m o d i f i c a t i o n p o r t i o n o f the
program i n c l u d e s p r i m a r i l y a n e x p a n d e d l i g h t n i n g s u p p r e s s i o n e f f o r t a n d a new e f f o r t d i r e c t e d t o w a r d h a i l s u p p r e s s i o n , t h e Department s t a t e s :
" P r o j e c t S k y f i r e of
t h e U . S . F o r e s t Service i s p e r f o r m i n g a n a c t i v e research
program a i m e d a t s u p p r e s s i o n o f l i g h t n i n g w h i c h c a u s e s
some 1 0 , 0 0 0 f o r e s t f i r e s a n n u a l l y i n t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s .
A f i e l d e x p e r i m e n t i s t e s t i n g the e f f e c t s o f v e r y heavy
s e e d i n g w i t h s i l v e r i o d i d e o n l i g h t n i n g storms.
The
r e s u l t s t o d a t e s h o w a 32 p e r c e n t r e d u c t i o n i n c l o u d to-ground l i g h t n i n g from seeded storms. A s p e c i a l l y
i n s t r u m e n t e d f i e l d area u t i l i z i n g three r a d a r s a n d a
n e t w o r k of l i g h t n i n g s e n s o r s t a t i o n s i s u s e d f o r the
12
Project Skyfire is providing the basis for achieving a significant reduction in lightning damage in the
forest areas of the western United States, which is of
appreciable benefit to the country. The objectives of
Skyfire clearly fall within the mission responsibilities
of the U . S . Forest Service, which should continue to be
responsible for the project.
The present program has been underway for over
ten years. From the data presented to the Panel, it
appears that this effort has been underfunded in relation to its potential value to the agency's mission,
and to the Nation. I recommend, and regard as minimal,
the following effort proposed by Agriculture:
1.
2.
13
3.
4.
5.
The Department of Agriculture's miss ion responsibilities for crop protection were well documented and
defined to the Panel, and are the basis for an active
*United States Department of Agriculture, Summary of
Weather Modification Research Program presented on
June 28, 1966.
14
i n t e r e s t i n h a i l suppression. N o s c i e n t i f i c d e t a i l s
w e r e s u b m i t t e d , however, t o j u s t i f y u n d e r t a k i n g a largeS c i e n t i f i c r e s u l t s t o date
s c a l e program a t t h i s t i m e .
are inadequate f o r d e f i n i n g a v a l i d program t o a p p l y
h a i l s u p p r e s s i o n t e c h n i q u e s t o such a p p l i c a t i o n s as
crop protection.
I recommend a g a i n s t the expansion of A g r i c u l t u r e ' s
h a i l s u p p r e s s i o n e f f o r t s beyond a m o d e s t e f f o r t f o r t h e
t i m e being.
I recommend t h a t t h e Environmental S c i e n c e
S e r v i c e s A d m i n i s t r a t i o n , i n close c o o p e r a t i o n w i t h the
D e p a r t m e n t of A g r i c u l t u r e , take the lead i n t h e development and conduct of a program t o understand t h e basic
physics of h a i l - p r o d u c i n g s t o r m s , and of h a i l - s u p p r e s s i o n
mechanisms.
I recommend t h a t , as t h e n e c e s s a r y s c i e n t i f i c
r a t i o n a l e i s developed, t h e Department of A g r i c u l t u r e take
t h e l e a d i n conducting large-scale f i e l d experiments i n
h a i l s u p p r e s s i o n , p a r t i c u l a r l y i n t h e western p l a i n s area
w h e r e h a i l damage t o a g r i c u l t u r e i s m o s t s e v e r e . Should
t h i s become a c h i e v a b l e i n t h e 1970 t i m e period, the t o t a l
Department of A g r i c u l t u r e weather m o d i f i c a t i o n budget f o r
FY 1970 would have t o be larger t h a n t h e $7M i n d i c a t e d
earlier
15
i n species b r o u g h t a b o u t t h r o u g h weather m o d i f i c a t i o n , f o r
e x a m p l e , i n v o l v e considerable u n c e r t a i n t i e s r e l a t i v e t o
t h e s p e c i f i c r e s u l t s of w e a t h e r m o d i f i c a t i o n .
I t is v e r y
i m p o r t a n t , theref ore, t o e s t a b l i s h e a r l y t h e n e c e s s a r y
b a s e l i n e data f o r l a t e r c o m p a r i s o n s a n d a n a l y s e s .
S i m i l a r l y , a program i n boundary l a y e r e f f e c t s g e n e r a t e d
t h r o u g h w e a t h e r m o d i f i c a t i o n must d e a l w i t h d i f f i c u l t i e s
of e s t a b l i s h i n g f i r m l y a t r u e c a u s e - a n d - e f f e c t r e l a t i o n ship.
I recommend a D e p a r t m e n t o f I n t e r i o r b u d g e t f o r
w e a t h e r m o d i f i c a t i o n a c t i v i t i e s of a b o u t $3M i n FY 1967
g r o w i n g t o a b o u t $35M i n FY 1 9 7 0 , i n c l u d i n g n e e d e d
f a c i l i t i e s and o p e r a t i o n .
The main t h r u s t of I n t e r i o r ' s
p r o g r a m i s i n t h e area of p r e c i p i t a t i o n a u g m e n t a t i o n .
The D e p a r t m e n t of I n t e r i o r has b e e n a s s i g n e d n a t i o n a l
w a t e r r e s o u r c e management r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s , a n d t h u s a n
e f f o r t i n t h e e x p l o i t a t i o n a n d u t i l i z a t i o n of t h e w a t e r
r e s o u r c e is c l e a r l y a n I n t e r i o r m i s s i o n a n d i s i n t h e
national interest.
The s i n g u l a r o b j e c t i v e of I n t e r i o r ' s A t m o s p h e r i c
Water R e s o u r c e s Program has b e e n t o a s c e r t a i n t h e t e c h n i c a l a n d e c o n o m i c f e a s i b i l i t y of i n c r e a s i n g the w a t e r
s u p p l y f o r B u r e a u of R e c l a m a t i o n p r o j e c t s t h r o u g h
weather modification.
Research r e s u l t s t o d a t e show
s u f f i c i e n t promise t h a t t h e p r o g r a m h a s b e e n r e o r i e n t e d
t o r e f l e c t t h e e v e n t u a l goal of t h e "effective,
16
b e n e f i c i a l u t i l i z a t i o n of t h e n a t i o n ' s atmospheric
w a t e r resources.
'I*
T h e program t o
gate
h a s included, a p p r o p r i a t e l y ,
cloud-seeding e f f o r t s , research i n v o l v i n g the a c q u i s i t i o n of f i e l d d a t a i n a l l the e x p e r i m e n t a l areas, and
climatology.
I n t e r i o r ' s program h a s c o n c e n t r a t e d on a number of
f i e l d experiments i n t h e w e s t e r n s t a t e s . A program a t
t h e U n i v e r s i t y of Wyoming devoted to t h e s t u d y of cap
c l o u d s h a s produced amounts o f w a t e r which appear to
o f f e r promise o f economic s i g n i f i c a n c e . I n t e r i o r ' s
Basin program ranges f r o m t h e o r e t i c a l s t u d i e s of c l o u d
p h y s i c s t o a c t u a l m o d i f i c a t i o n o p e r a t i o n s , and i n c l u d e s
t h e development of i n s t r u m e n t a t i o n and d a t a a c q u i s i t i o n
systems.
The Southern S i e r r a program h a s s t u d i e d t h e effect i v e n e s s of cloud seeding i n t h a t s p e c i a l i z e d area.
The P a c i f i c Northwest program h a s i n c l u d e d experiments
on s h i f t i n g p r e c i p i t a t i o n from areas of s u r p l u s t o
a r e a s of d e f i c i t .
17
which would i n c l u d e t h e f o l l o w i n g n e c e s s a r y f a c i l i t i e s :
r a d a r and rawinsonde i n s t a l l a t i o n s , b a l l o o n i n f l a t i o n
s h e l t e r s , r e p a i r s h o p s , a i r p o r t s , temporary h o u s i n g ,
etc.
I f e e l t h a t t h e e s t a b l i s h m e n t of an e x t e n s i v e
~ e t s - m r kof such field s t a t i o n s i s a p p r o p r i a t e t e c h n i c a l l y
and e v e n t u a l l y s h o u l d be accomplished w i t h i n t h e Department of I n t e r i o r ' s m i s s i o n . I estimate t h a t n o t more t h a n
t e n f i e l d s i t e s a r e c o n s i s t e n t with t h e a p p a r e n t potent i a l i t i e s of t h e Department-of I n t e r i o r through t h e
FY 1970 t i m e period.
The c o s t per f i e l d s i t e a s deduced
from t h e m a t e r i a l provided b y I n t e r i o r i s a p p r o x i m a t e l y
2% m i l l i o n d o l l a r s i n c l u d i n g such equipment i t e m s a s
weather r a d a r , rawinsondes, t e l e m e t r y s e t s , t r a c e r
d i s p e n s e r s , and a t o t a l of a b o u t e i g h t t w i n e n g i n e a i r c r a f t f o r t h e t e n f i e l d sites.
This equipment i s
r e p r e s e n t a t i v e of t h e proposed s i t e implementation s e t
f o r t h i n the m a t e r i a l supplied b y I n t e r i o r .
I recommend t h a t I n t e r i o r c o l l a b o r a t e w i t h ESSA i n
18
e f f e c t s of weather m o d i f i c a t i o n .
I n p l a n n i n g f o r programs
i n atmospheric w a t e r r e s o u r c e s , t h e Department i s i n c l u d i n g p r o v i s i o n f o r a p p r o p r i a t e s t u d i e s i n this a r e a .
ESSA
Proqram
19
20
M o d i f i c a t i o n of C o l l o i d a l S t a b i l i t y : A n
a t t e m p t would be made t o s e e d t r o p i c a l m a r i t i m e c l o u d s
with condensation n u c l e i i n order t o increase t h e i r
c o l l o i d a l s t a b i l i t y and t o p r e v e n t r a i n .
This a c t i v i t y
may e n t e r a s e m i - o p e r a t i o n a l s t a t e d u r i n g FY 1972.
'
2.
3. A q I Diffusion:
T h i s p r o j e c t supplements the
r e s e a r c h under i t e m 1 above.
I t is b e l i e v e d t h a t the
v e r t i c a l d i f f u s i o n of AgI can be s t u d i e d i n t h e w i n t e r
i n t h e G r e a t Lakes Region d u r i n g p r e s e n c e of extended
supercooled c l o u d l a y e r s . AgI w i l l be g e n e r a t e d i n
g r e a t c o n c e n t r a t i o n s a t t h e s u r f a c e . The a n a l y s i s of
i t s e f f e c t on t h e c l o u d deck w i l l be done b y radar.
4.
Cumulus D y n a m i c s : T h i s i s p a r t of P r o j e c t
Storm Fury.
I t i n v o l v e s the c o n t i n u e d s t u d y of cumulus
dynamics by means of t h e release of heat of f u s i o n
through s e e d i n g w i t h p y r o t e c h n i c s .
A two-year c y c l e of
randomized f i e l d e x p e r i m e n t a t i o n i s f o r e s e e n i n t h e
Barbados I s l a n d a r e a , which p e r m i t s s t u d y of b o t h
m a r i t i m e and c o n t i n e n t a l c l o u d s .
5. H a i l Suppression:
S e v e r a l approaches are
contemplated:
(a) a f i e l d p r o j e c t t o s t u d y h a i l s t o n e
s t r u c t u r e t o d e t e r m i n e where i n t h e c l o u d the h a i l s t o n e
o r i g i n a t e d , (b) a i r b o r n e s t u d i e s of h a i l s t o r m s t o
a s s e s s t h e r e l a t i v e s i g n i f i c a n c e of mothercloud and
a n v i l i n t h e h a i l p r o c e s s , and (c) r a d a r s t u d i e s t o
a n a l y z e f u r t h e r t h e "anatomy" of t h e h a i l s t o r m .
A r e a s of a c t i v i t y w i l l be Norman, Oklahoma;
Boulder, Colorado: and F l a g s t a f f , Arizona.
21
6.
I n a d v e r t e n t M o d i f i c a t i o n : I n a d v e r t e n t modificat i o n of the weather o c c u r s because of p o l l u t i o n of t h e
atmosphere by a r t i f i c i a l gaseous and p a r t i c u l a t e c o n s t i t u e n t s , and changes i n s u r f a c e c h a r a c t e r and a l b e d o due t c ?
a g r i c u l t u r e and c o n s t r u c t i o n . The effects of a i r p o l l u t i o n
become a p p a r e n t i n three a r e a s : atmospheric c h e m i s t r y ,
o p t i c s , and e l e c t r i c i t y , a l l o f which are s t u d i e d i n t h i s
program.
Research under t h i s p r o j e c t w i 11 p r o b a b l y r e q u i r e
many y e a r s .
22
Laboratory S t u d i e s :
are planned:
8.
A number of in-house
studies
(a) C o n s t r u c t i o n of a f l u i d m o d e l f o r t h e s t u d y
of i n f l u x c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s i n t o t o r n a d i c storms.
(b) N u c l e a t i o n s t u d i e g : S t u d i e s are planned
t o l e a r n more a b o u t the a c t i o n of s i l v e r i o d i d e as a
f r e e z i n g o r a s a s u b l i m a t i o n n u c l e u s , and about i t s
a g i n g under i r r a d i a t i o n b y t h e sun. I n a d d i t i o n t o these
s t u d i e s , v a r i o u s other n u c l e a t i n g a g e n t s , such a s l e a d
o x i d e , w i l l be i n v e s t i g a t e d .
T h i s may lead t o t h e d i s c o v e r y
of less expensive materials w i t h a d i s p e r s a b i l i t y e q u i v a l e n t
t o A g I , and u s a b l e i n p y r o t e c h n i c d i s p e n s e r s .
9.
Water Budget of Storms: L i t t l e i s known of the
w a t e r budget of e x t r a t r o p i c a l storms. Analyses b y Bradbury,
E l l i o t t , and A t l a s , and b y Wexler i n d i c a t e t h a t w a t e r
storage o c c u r s i n such storms and t h a t t h e r e f o r e chances
of r a i n augmentation e x i s t . S y s t e m a t i c i n v e s t i g a t i o n s
however are missing.
The same i s t r u e of c o n v e c t i v e
storms. Only f o r t h e case of a i r m a s s thunderstorms does
a n a n a l y s i s e x i s t (by Braham), w h i l e the w a t e r b u d g e t
of h a i l s t o r m s o r t o r n a d o s i s unknown. One a n a l y s i s of
t h e i n f l u x of a i r i n t o these storms gave v a l u e s of more
t h a n 100 c u b i c k i l o m e t e r s i n one minute.
P l a n s c a l l f o r a d i v e r s i f i e d approach.
In the
i n i t i a l phase t h e t o t a l p r e c i p i t a b l e w a t e r w i l l be s t u d i e d
u s i n g a network of e x i s t i n g U . S . weather i n s t r u m e n t s .
T h i s s t u d y w i l l be d e s i g n e d t o f u r n i s h the i n f l u x of
vapor a c r o s s t h e s h o r e s of the Gulf of Mexico f o r c e r t a i n
weather s i t u a t i o n s , o r f r o m t h e Gulf of C a l i f o r n i a , f o r
i n s t a n c e , f o r t h e s h o r t p e r i o d of the summer monsoon
which i s s o i m p o r t a n t t o Arizona.
The second phase
c a l l s f o r a m e t e o r o l o g i c a n a l y t i c s t u d y of t h e w a t e r
budget of s t o r m s , supplemented b y a i r c r a f t and r a d i o s o n d e
network d a t a c o l l e c t i o n .
23
24
s e c t i o n on I n t e r i o r , I propose t h a t I n t e r i o r c o l l a b o r a t e
w i t h ESSA on a l a r g e - s c a l e f i e l d program i n p r e c i p i t a t i o n
augmentation i n t h e e a s t e r n o r n o r t h e a s t e r n s e c t i o n i n
keeping w i t h the c o n c e p t t h a t t h e Department of I n t e r i o r
h a s m i s s i o n r e s p o n s i b i l i t y i n w a t e r r e s o u r c e s enhancement
while ESSA should conduct a b r o a d program of e x p l o r a t o r y
r e s e a r c h i n t o t h e p o t e n t i a l s and s c i e n t i f i c bases f o r
weather m o d i f i c a t i o n .
A v e r y i m p o r t a n t r e a s o n t h a t ESSA
undertake t h i s work w i t h I n t e r i o r under a memorandum of
u n d e r s t a n d i n g i s so t h a t ESSA may i n t e g r a t e t h i s a c t i v i t y
w i t h t h e i r b r o a d e r program of r e s e a r c h on t h e p h y s i c s and
dynamics of weather,
The ESSA ongoing e f f o r t s i n s e v e r e s t o r m s and
comprehensive o b s e r v a t i o n a l f a c i l i t y used t o d e f i n e
b e t t e r t h e c o n d i t i o n s which spawn s e v e r e s t o r m s , t h e
l o c a l c i r c u l a t i o n s which are the s t o r m , and t h e a s s o c i a t e d
budgets of w a t e r s u b s t a n c e and energy, During t h e
o b s e r v a t i o n a l period April-June 1966, t h i s i n c l u d e d
c a l i b r a t e d Doppler and c o n v e n t i o n a l r a d a r s , networks of
56 s u r f a c e weather s t a t i o n s , 1 7 5 r a i n g a g e s , 10 r a d i o sonde s t a t i o n s provided b y t h e U. S. A i r Force and t h e
U. S. Army, and a 1600-foot i n s t r u m e n t e d t e l e v i s i o n
tower, c l o u d cameras, and s e v e r a l i n s t r u m e n t e d a i r c r a f t
of ESSA and USAF. A l i g h t n i n g l o c a t i n g system i s under
development a l s o , i n o r d e r t h a t t h e e l e c t r i c a l energy
of storms can be c o r r e l a t e d w i t h t o r n a d o development
and the d i s t r i b u t i o n of p r e c i p i t a t i o n r e v e a l e d b y r a d a r .
ESSA f e e l s t h a t a more a c c u r a t e d e s c r i p t i o n of t h e
storms can be o b t a i n e d by i n t e r p r e t a t i o n of the observat i o n s i n l i g h t of c o n s t r a i n i n g p r i n c i p l e s of m a s s
c o n t i n u i t y and e n e r g y c o n s e r v a t i o n o r c o n v e r s i o n ,
25
I n a d d i t i o n t o t h e o r e t i c a l s t u d i e s and d a t a a n a l y s i s ,
some i m p o r t a n t p r e s e n t and planned e f f o r t s a r e :
Round-the-clock r a d a r s u r v e i l l a n c e and
data r e c o r d i n g .
T h i s should p r o v i d e means
f o r d e t e r m i n i n g a s s o c i a t i o n s among s e v e r e
storm o c c u r r e n c e s and topography, t i m e of
day, s e a s o n , and s y n o p t i c m e t e o r o l o g i c a l
p a r a m e t e r s , and w i l l provide a body of cont r o l d a t a f o r the better e v a l u a t i o n of
a t t e m p t s b y NSSL and o t h e r a g e n c i e s t o
.modify Oklahoma storms.
Continued development of computer programs
for p r o c e s s i n g t h e voluminous radar and mesonetwork d a t a .
I n s t a l l a t i o n of a d d i t i o n a l mesonetwork s u r f a c e
s t a t i o n s between e x i s t i n g ones now located 10
t o 15 m i l e s a p a r t . A d d i t i o n a l s t a t i o n s are
needed t o record a d e q u a t e l y t h e scales of motion
c h a r a c t e r i s t i c of severe s t o r m s .
C o n s t r u c t i o n of a l0cm-Doppler r a d a r f o r
improved v e l o c i t y measuring c a p a b i l i t y a t
l o n g e r range.
Development of improved means f o r d i r e c t d i g i t a l
r e c o r d i n g and p r o c e s s i n g of c o n v e n t i o n a l and
Doppler r a d a r d a t a .
S c i e n t i s t s a t t h e N a t i o n a l H u r r i c a n e Research Laborat o r y , M i a m i , F l o r i d a , and c o o p e r a t i n g groups are s t u d y i n g
t h e h u r r i c a n e and i t s environment, and o t h e r t r o p i c a l
c i r c u l a t i o n s t h a t e i t h e r may become a h u r r i c a n e or a f f e c t
t h e development of one. The f o l l o w i n g d i s c u s s i o n f u r n i s h e d
b y ESSA g i v e s t h e r a t i o n a l e f o r t h e h u r r i c a n e research
program.
i n recent
y e a r s i n d e v e l o p i n g mathematical models of
hurricanes.
The most advanced of t h e s e
models i s now b e i n g used f o r p a r t i a l l y
e v a l u a t i n g simple m o d i f i c a t i o n h y p o t h e s e s .
G r e a t advances have been made
I n s p i t e of a l l t h e p r o g r e s s t h a t h a s been
made i n h u r r i c a n e r e s e a r c h i n r e c e n t y e a r s ,
much needs t o be done b e f o r e w e c a n (1) g a i n
a n adequate u n d e r s t a n d i n g of many d e t a i l s of
the energy p r o c e s s e s i n h u r r i c a n e s , (2) s a t i s f a c t o r i l y explain or p r e d i c t t h e formation
and i n t e n s i f i c a t i o n of t r o p i c a l c y c l o n e s , o r
( 3 ) d e v e l o p r e a l i s t i c and a c c u r a t e dynamical
n u m e r i c a l models of h u r r i c a n e s .
28
A s a n o t e of c a u t i o n , I f e e l a p o i n t s h o u l d be made
on t h e complexity of t h e proposed r e s e a r c h . A s i l l u s t r a t e d
I recommend an i n c r e a s e i n t h e N a t i o n a l S c i e n c e
Foundation (NSF) weather m o d i f i c a t i o n budget t o a b o u t $ 5 M
i n F Y 1967, growing t o $20M i n FY 1970. The F Y 1970 f i g u r e
i n c l u d e s $10M f o r t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n of a l a r g e - s c a l e simulat i o n f a c i l i t y f o r basic r e s e a r c h i n c l o u d p h y s i c s t o be
erected and o p e r a t e d b y t h e N a t i o n a l Center f o r Atmospheric
Research JNCAR), I f p l a n n i n g f o r t h e f a c i l i t y moves r a p i d l y ,
some of t h e $10M might be needed e a r l i e r t h a n FY 1970.
29
research performed b y m i s s i o n a g e n c i e s , b u t w i l l s u p p o r t
r e s e a r c h i n t h o s e m u l t i - d i s c i p l i n e areas which w i l l
supplement o r e x t e n d o t h e r weather m o d i f i c a t i o n r e s e a r c h
a l r e a d y underway and w i l l develop t h e n a t i o n ' s r e s o u r c e s
of knowledge and manpower i n new and i m a g i n a t i v e a r e a s . " "
The N S F r e s e a r c h program t o be conducted p r i m a r i l y
a t u n i v e r s i t i e s and NCAR w i l l i n c l u d e t h e f o l l o w i n g areas
of research:
1. Cloud Dynamics: B a s i c s t u d i e s w i l l be c o n t i n u e d
on t h e motions of c l o u d s , and t h e e f f e c t s upon t h e i r
growth or decay produced b y the release or a b s o r p t i o n of
t h e h e a t of c o n d e n s a t i o n and h e a t of f u s i o n which may be
produced o r induced b y n a t u r a l o r a r t i f i c i a l s t i m u l u s .
These stuLies w i l l be c a r r i e d on t h r o u g h a c t u a l observat i o n s of c l o u d s i n t h e i r n a t u r a l environment, i n s i m c l a t i o n chambers i n the l a b o r a t o r y , o r b y t h e o r e t i c a l models
u s i n g h i g h speed computers.
2.
Ice Formation i n Clouds: The r o l e of t h e
f o r m a t i o n of ice i n c l o u d s i n producing r a i n d r o p f o r m a t i o n
w i l l be i n t e n s i v e l y s t u d i e d .
The mechanism whereby
a t m o s p h e r i c n u c l e i , b o t h n a t u r a l and a r t i f i c i a l , become
e f f e c t i v e i n f r e e z i n g supercooled d r o p l e t s w i l l be f u r t h e r
s t u d i e d , and the importance of t h i s p r o c e s s i n c o m p e t i t i o n
w i t h c o a l e s c e n c e and s u b l i m a t i o n w i l l be assessed. T h e
means whereby ice c r y s t a l s grow t o h a i l s t o n e s i z e i n
s e v e r e s t o r m s w i l l a l s o r e c e i v e a t t e n t i o n , e s p e c i a l l y as
i t r e l a t e s t o p o s s i b l e c o n t r o l mechanisms.
3.
Coalescence: The process whereby c l o u d p a r t i c l e s
combine t o f o r m r a i n d r o p s i n warm c l o u d s w i l l be s t u d i e d .
The r e l a t i o n s h i p of t h i s p r o c e s s t o t h e q u a n t i t y and
e f f e c t i v e n e s s of n a t u r a l o r a r t i f i c i a l l y i n t r o d u c e d
c o n d e n s a t i o n n u c l e i w i l l be observed u s i n g a i r b o r n e
30
i n s t r u m e n t a t i o n i n t h e f i e l d , i n c l o u d chambers o r c l o u d
tunnels i n the laboratory, or by t h e o r e t i c a l c o n s i d e r a t i o n s
u s i n g mathematical models.
T h e c o n t r i b u t i o n of e l e c t r i c a l
f o r c e s t o c o a l e s c e n c e p r o c e s s e s w i l l a l s o be s t u d i e d .
4.
Cloud E l e c t r i f i c a t i o n : The mechanism of c h a r g e
g e n e r a t i o n i n c l o u d s w i l l be s t u d i e d i n n a t u r a l c l o u d s
c o n t a i n i n g e i t h e r s u p e r c o o l e d w a t e r o r ice. The e f f e c t
of f r e e z i n g of c l o u d d r o p l e t s on the o r i e n t a t i o n and
l o c a t i o n of charge c e n t e r s w i l l be observed. The e f f e c t
of charge t r a n s f e r upon t h e s t r u c t u r e and dynamics of
t h e cloud before and a f t e r l i g h t n i n g s t r o k e f o r m a t i o n w i l l
be a s s e s s e d .
5 . Computer A n a l y s i s : Advances w i l l be made i n
computer t e c h n o l o g y i n t h e u n i v e r s i t i e s and a t NCAR t o
p e r m i t m o r e a c c u r a t e mathematical modeling of t h e l a r g e
s c a l e motions of t h e e a r t h ' s atmosphere l e a d i n g t o the
e v a l u a t i o n of p o s s i b l e p r a c t i c a l t e c h n i q u e s f o r a more
d e s i r a b l e d i s t r i b u t i o n of m o i s t u r e b e a r i n g a i r masses
o v e r drought areas o r r e g i o n s of p r e c i p i t a t i o n e x c e s s .
The accompanying long-term changes i n c l i m a t i c s t r u c t u r e
w i l l also be c a r e f u l l y c o n s i d e r e d .
The u n i v e r s i t y r e s e a r c h i n weather m o d i f i c a t i o n t o be
supported b y NSF p r o v i d e s t h e primary mechanism f o r producing
t h e numbers of t r a i n e d s c i e n t i s t s t h a t the t o t a l program w i l l
require.
E x c e s s i v e f u n d i n g from NSF, however, would
31
monopolize a major s o u r c e of q u a l i f i e d p e r s o n n e l t h a t t h e
o t h e r agency programs must r e l y on.
I recommend, t h e r e f o r e ,
a f u n d i n g l e v e l f o r NSF s u f f i c i e n t t o s u p p o r t a b o u t h a l f of
what NSF e s t i m a t e s t o be t h e t o t a l c a p a c i t y o f t h e
academic community i n t h e area of weather m o d i f i c a t i o n
i n a d d i t i o n t o a c t i v i t i e s a t NCAR.
T h i s l e v e l of s u p p o r t
would c l e a r l y p e r m i t NSF t o fund programs a d e q u a t e l y t h a t
a r e now b e i n g "stretched" and would p r o v i d e t h e s t i m u l u s
needed t o b e t t e r s a t i s f y t h e NSF program s t a t e d above. I
recommend f u r t h e r , because of t h e fundamental importance of
a c h i e v i n g t h e three o b j e c t i v e s as e a r l y as p o s s i b l e , t h a t
t h e N S F b u d g e t be i n c r e a s e d immediately t o the l e v e l s
s u g g e s t e d above.
Capital Facilities
I s u p p o r t , i n g e n e r a l , the agency p r o p o s a l s
f o r e x t e n s i v e c a p i t a l f a c i l i t i e s which are n e c e s s a r y
t o c a r r y o u t r e s e a r c h and development a s w e l l as
o p e r a t i o n a l m i s s i o n s . Such f a c i l i t i e s i n c l u d e a i r c r a f t ,
e x t e n s i v e f i e l d i n s t a l l a t i o n s c o n s i s t i n g of m e t e o r o l o g i c a l
s e n s o r networks and d a t a a n a l y s i s f a c i l i t i e s , l a r g e
l a b o r a t o r y i n s t a l l a t i o n s (cloud chambers, e t c . ) , and h i g h s p e e d , l a r g e - c a p a c i t y d i g i t a l computers f o r modeling of
a t m o s p h e r i c p r o c e s s e s . A l l o c a t i o n of f a c i l i t i e s s h o u l d
be b a s e d on t h e f o l l o w i n g p r i n c i p l e s :
1. If a major f a c i l i t y s e r v e s a s p e c i a l missiono r i e n t e d purpose and f u l l - t i m e u s e can be
j u s k i f i e d f o r t h a t purpose, the f a c i l i t y s h o u l d
be e s t a b l i s h e d and o p e r a t e d b y t h e s p e c i f i c
e l e m e n t of t h e agency charged w i t h t h a t mission.
For example:
Small a i r c r a f t and f i e l d sites
f u l l y used by t h e Department of A g r i c u l t u r e i n
t h e i r l i g h t n i n g s u p p r e s s i o n m i s s i o n should be
e s t a b l i s h e d and o p e r a t e d b y the Department of
A g r i c u l t u r e a s p a r t of t h a t m i s s i o n .
I n general,
32
S p e c i f i c a l l y , t h e major f i e l d s i t e s , large c l o u d
chambers, large-scale computers, and large-scale
integrated f l y i n g l a b o r a t o r i e s f a l l i n t o t h i s
category
33
34
The p r e s e n t - d a y o p e r a t i o n i n modeling t e c h n i q u e s
and numerical f o r e c a s t i n g p r o c e d u r e s i n d i c a t e s
.
t h a t a l a r g e - s c a l e , y e t t o be developed, computer
may w e l l be r e q u i r e d .
T h e p l a n n i n g of i n d u s t r y
i n r e g a r d t o l a r g e computers needs t o be known.
A l s o , t h e basic research of t h e programs recommended e a r l i e r i n t h i s r e p o r t should c l a r i f y
t h e r o l e of such computers, and may indeed remove some of t h e need f o r them. H e r e a g a i n ,
however, I recommend a c a r e f u l p l a n n i n g phase.
I a l s o recommend t h a t ESSA should e s t a b l i s h a n d
o p e r a t e l a r g e - s c a l e d i g i t a l computers f o r t h e
purpose of a p p l y i n g a t m o s p h e r i c c i r c u l a t i o n models
t o weather m o d i f i c a t i o n .
I t is e x p e c t e d t h a t
e s t a b l i s h m e n t and o p e r a t i o n of these computing
f a c i l i t i e s c o u l d be funded a t l e a s t p a r t i a l l y
by, a n d s h a r e d w i t h , o t h e r programs w i t h i n ESSA.
While I f e e l t h a t a l a r g e mobile f l i g h t f a c i l i t y , f o r
both weather and weather m o d i f i c a t i o n r e s e a r c h i s
important t o the l o n g r a n g e development of t h e s e
f i e l d s , I a m unable t o determine a t t h i s t i m e what
would be a r e a s o n a b l e program f o r t h e e s t a b l i s h m e n t
I b e l i e v e it would be w i s e t o
of such a f a c i l i t y .
f o l l o w a s t e p - b y - s t e p p r o c e s s of a r r i v i n g a t an
optinum l a r g e - s c a l e f l i g h t f a c i l i t y , i n which the
development and use b y i n d i v i d u a l a g e n c i e s of t h e i r
own n e c e s s a r y smaller-scale f l i g h t f a c i l i t i e s would
be v 3 l u a b l e l e a r n i n g steps. I feel t h a t the l a t t e r
should not be n e g l e c t e d i n t h e h a s t e t o b r i n g a
l a r g e - s c a l e f a c i l i t y i n t o being.
I recommend
t h a t work toward t h e l a r g e - s c a l e f l i g h t f a c i l i t y
remain l a r g e l y i n t h e s t u d y and p l a n n i n g s t a g e
f o r t h e t i m e being.
35
C o o r d i n a t i o n and R e p o r t i n q
A s i n d i c a t e d b y the p r e s e n t e a r l y p l a n n i n g ,
research
and a p p l i c a t i o n s of weather m o d i f i c a t i o n a r e broad and
v a r i e d i n s c o p e , and have t h e i n t e r e s t of many a g e n c i e s .
Even a t t h i s s t a g e c o o r d i n a t i o n i s i m p e r a t i v e , and w i t h
t h e p a s s a g e of time c o o r d i n a t i o n w i l l become e v e r more
i m p o r t a n t t o sound p l a n n i n g and e f f e c t i v e e x e c u t i o n
of t h e program.
I t i s c l e a r t l i a t r e s e a r c h and a p p l i c a t i o n s o f weather m o d i f i c a t i o n a r e c l o s e l y r e l a t e d t o
m e t e o r o l o g i c a l s e r v i c e s and s u p p o r t i n g r e s e a r c h ; i n d e e d ,
i t would be an a r t i f i c i a l i t y t o a t t e m p t t o s e p a r a t e them.
Hence, I recommend t h a t t h e F e d e r a l C o o r d i n a t o r , who
a l r e a d y h a s r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r c o o r d i n a t i o n and r e p o r t i n g
i n t h i s a r e a of meteorology, undertake c o o r d i n a t i o n of t h e
Natj.ona1 Weather M o d i f i c a t i o n Program i n a d d i t i o n t o t h e
c o o r d i n a t i o n of n a t i o n a l a c t i v i t i e s i n meteorology;
B y " c o o r d i n a t i o n " I mean l a r g e l y " c o r r e l a t i o n ,
36
I also f e e l t h a t t h e F e d e r a l C o o r d i n a t o r f o r
Meteorology should be a s s i g n e d t h e t a s k of p r e p a r i n g
and s u b m i t t i n g an a n n u a l r e p o r t on n a t i o n a l w e a t h e r
m o d i f i c a t i o n a c t i v i t i e s . T h i s r e p o r t i n g assignment
i s a t p r e s e n t by law g i v e n t o t h e N a t i o n a l S c i e n c e
Foundation. I b e l i e v e t h a t i t i s d e s i r a b l e t o r e l i e v e
N S F of t h i s burden.
For o n e t h i n g , t h e p r i n c i p a l
f u t u r e of weather m o d i f i c a t i o n a c t i v i t i e s i s d i r e c t e d
toward a p p l i e d r e s e a r c h and o p e r a t i o n s , which a r e n o t
and should n o t be i n t h e mainstream of N S F ' s r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s f o r ba s i c research.
Secondly, a s h a s a l r e a d y
been p o i n t e d o u t , weather m o d i f i c a t i o n r e s e a r c h and
o p e r a t i o n s a r e i n e x t r i c a b l y interwoven w i t h meteorol o g i c a l s e r v i c e and s u p p o r t i n g r e s e a r c h .
Requiring t h e
F e d e r a l C o o r d i n a t o r f o r Meteorology t o r e p o r t on t h e
n a t i o n a l weather m o d i f i c a t i o n e f f o r t , t h e r e f o r e , a p p e a r s
t o be a n a t u r a l s t e p .
R e q u l a t i o n and C o n t r o l
A s b r o u g h t o u t c l e a r l y by t h e NSF S p e c i a l Commission
37
I f e e l t h a t t h e r e g u l a t i n g body s h o u l d n o t be t h e
I n t e r d e p a r t m e n t a l C o m m i t t e e f o r Atmospheric Sciences
(ICAS).
I n my view, t h e r e g u l a t i o n and c o n t r o l f u n c t i o n
w i l l be a f u l l - t i m e t a s k for a modest s t a f f of p e o p l e ,
p a r t i c u l a r l y , as t h e n a t i o n a l weather m o d i f i c a t i o n e f f o r t
i n c r e a s e s and as a c t i v i t i e s become i n t e r n a t i o n a l i n scope.
I C A S i s i n no p o s i t i o n t o undertake such a f u l l - t i m e
assignment. Moreover, many of t h e c o n f l i c t - o f - i n t e r e s t
problems t h a t a r i s e i n t h e case of a s s i g n i n g t h e f u n c t i o n
t o one of t h e o p e r a t i n g a g e n c i e s would a l s o e x i s t i n
such an assignment t o ICAS.
were t h e O f f i c e of t h e F e d e r a l C o o r d i n a t o r f o r
Meteorology m o r e c l e a r l y s e p a r a t e from ESSA, and perhaps
even from the Department of Commerce, one might a s s i g n
I feel very
t h i s t a s k t o t h e F e d e r a l Coordinator.
s t r o n g l y , however, t h a t the p r e s e n t r e l a t i o n s between
t h e F e d e r a l C o o r d i n a t o r I s o f f i c e and ESSA a r e s u f f i c i e n t l y
a m b i v a l e n t t o make t h e assignment of t h e r e g u l a t i o n
and c o n t r o l f u n c t i o n t o t h e F e d e r a l Coordinator a n
unwise s t e p .
I n t e r n a t i o n a l Implications
By a p p r o x i m a t e l y 1 9 7 2 , when l a r g e - s c a l e weather
m o d i f i c a t i o n experiments may w e l l be o p e r a t i o n a l , t h e y
may be e x p e c t e d t o have c o n s i d e r a b l e i n t e r n a t i o n a l
impact.
T h i s impact w i l l be twofold:
(1) A s experiments and o p e r a t i o n s become
g e o g r a p h i c a l l y more e x t e n s i v e , t h e r e w i l l be
a need f o r c o o r d i n a t i n g such o p e r a t i o n s w i t h
n a t i o n s whose t e r r i t o r i e s a r e a f f e c t e d b y
I f experiments t a k e p l a c e
those o p e r a t i o n s .
o v e r oceans there may be a c o n f l i c t w i t h
w e a t h e r m o d i f i c a t i o n experiments b y o t h e r
nations.
This i s e s s e n t i a l l y a q u e s t i o n
of r e g u l a t i o n and c o o r d i n a t i o n .
It is n o t
e x p e c t e d t h a t an i n t e r n a t i o n a l r e g u l a t o r y
body w i l l e x i s t by t h a t time.
Indeed, e f f o r t s
30
t o e s t a b l i s h an i n t e r n a t i o n a l agency t o d e a l
w i t h weather m o d i f i c a t i o n , w h i l e w e l l i n t e n d e d ,
a r e l i k e l y t o be of dubious v a l u e and t o c r e a t e
r a t h e r t h a n r e s o l v e p o l i t i c a l problems--if t h e
e x p e r i e n c e i n n u c l e a r e n e r g y and s p a c e i s any
guide
39
REFERENCES
1.
2.
3.
APPENDICES
I
I1
I11
IV
VI
MEMBERSHIP
RECOMMENDATIONS
APPENDIX I
1-1
S.
1-3
1-5
MEMBERSHIP
RECOMMENDAT IONS
APPENDIX I1
11-1
11-2
11-3
3.
Advancement of weather p r e d i c t i o n a s a proof of
u n d e r s t a n d i n g , i n c l u d i n g s u p p o r t of t h i s e f f o r t by
t h e e s t a b l i s h m e n t of a g l o b a l weather o b s e r v a t i o n
network
4.
Study of t h e e f f e c t s of l a r g e s c a l e s u r f a c e
m o d i f i c a t i o n b y numerical and l a b o r a t o r y models of
t h e o c e a n i c and atmospheric g e n e r a l c i r c u l a t i o n ,
and of p r a c t i c a l means f o r s u r f a c e m o d i f i c a t i o n
of t h e l a n d and s e a .
5.
Study of t h e r a d i a t i v e e f f e c t s of changes i n t h e
a t m o s p h e r i c composition and a l t e r a t i o n of i t s t r a n s parency t h a t urban growth and n e w forms of i n d u s t r y ,
t r a n s p o r t a t i o n or l a n d u s e may evoke.
6.
B i o l o g i c a l Aspects of Weather M o d i f i c a t i o n
Living t h i n g s a r e adapted t o t h e weather t h a t a c t u a l l y
p r e v a i l s , and any change i n t h a t weather w i l l be g e n e r a l l y
d e l e t e r i o u s t o them.
The l a r g e s t c r e d i t item f o r weather m o d i f i c a t i o n i s l i k e l y
t o he an i n c r e a s e i n primary p r o d u c t i o n of t h e d r i e r
p a r t s ui' I:he land s u r f a c e through improvements i n r a i n f a l l .
Even t h e a b i l i t y t o c o n t r o l s e a s o n a l d i s t r i b u t i o n of
r a i n f a l l would l e a d t o more e f f i c i e n t farming o p e r a t i o n s .
R e a l i z a t i o n of t h e p o t e n t i a l i n c r e a s e i n p r o d u c t i o n would
depend upon b e i n g a b l e t o modify t h e r a i n f a l l w i t h o u t
major p e s t o u t b r e a k s and e x t i n c t i o n and d i s r u p t i o n of
n a t u r a l communities.
I t i s n o t c e r t a i n t h a t t h i s would
be p o s s i b l e .
11-4
11-5
Repeated o p e r a t i o n s on t h e s c a l e mentioned a r e l i k e l y ,
however, t o have f a r r e a c h i n g b i o l o g i c a l consequences
a s pointed o u t i n t h e p r e v i o u s s e c t i o n s , and some of
t h e b i o l o g i c a l changes would n o t be r e v e r s i b l e .
This
a d v i s o r y group recommended t h a t r e p e a t e d and long t e r m
m o d i f i c a t i o n s of weather :lot be a t t e m p t e d w i t h o u t p r i o r
c a r e f u l and w e l l planned m o n i t o r i n g o r computer s i m u l a t i o n
s t u d i e s of t h e b i o l s g i c a l consequences of p a r t i c u l a r
kinds of weather m o d i f i c a t i o n .
S t a t i s t i c a l Aspects of Weather M o d i f i c a t i o n
S t a t i s t i c a l t r a i n i n g f o r m e t e o r o l o g i s t s should be
I n t e l l e c t u a l interchange
promoted i n academic programs.
between s c i e n t i s t s and s t a t i s t i c i a n s should b e c o n t i n u e d
through p e r i o d i c seminars.
S t a t i s t i c a l c o n s u l t a n t s should be made a v a i l a b l e t o
s c i e n t i s t s i n t h i s f i e l d through tie s u p p o r t of c o n f e r ences where n e w p r o j e c t s can be p r e s e n t e d , through u s e
of s t a t i s t i c i a n s a s e v a l u a t o r s of proposed work, and
through t h e s u p p o r t of t a s k f o r c e s and a d v i s o r y p a n e l s ,
w i t h s t a t i s t i c i a n members, f o r l a r g e p r o j e c t s .
Statistic i a n s should a i d i n t h e e v a l u a t i o n of p r o p o s a l s f o r
government-supported r e s e a r c h .
Step? should be t a k e n t o a s s u r e t h a t p l a n s f o r government-supported r e s e a r c h u t i l i z e s t a t i s t i c a l p r i n c i p l e s
111 d e t e r m i n a t i o n of d e s i g n and s i z e .
11-6
11-7
Legal and L e g i s l a t i v e A s p e c t s
The Commission recommends t h a t t h e F e d e r a l Government
by a p p r o p r i a t e l e g i s l a t i o n be empowered to:
Delay o r h a l t a l l a c t i v i t i e s -- p u b l i c o r
p r i v a t e -- i n a c t u a l o r p o t e n t i a l c o n f l i c t w i t h
w e a t h e r and c l i m a t e m o d i f i c a t i o n programs of t h e
F e d e r a l g ~ v e r n m e n t ,whether c a r r i e d on by t h e
government i t s e l f or by i t s g r a n t e e s or c o n t r a c t o r s ;
1.
2.
Immunize F e d e r a l a g e n t s , g r a n t e e s , and cont r a c t o r s engaged i n weather and c l i m a t e m o d i f i c a t i o n a c t i v i t i e s from S t a t e and l o c a l government
i n t e r f e r e n c e ; and
Provide t o F e d e r a l g r a n t e e s and c o n t r a c t o r s
indemnification or other protection ag ain st
l i a b i l i t y t o t h e p u b l i c f o r damages caused by
F e d e r a l programs of weather and c l i m a t e modification.
3.
11-9
11-10
11-11
11-12
An Advisory Committee
11-13
Report to the
Interdepartmental Committee on Atmospheric Sciences
Prepared
APPENDIX 111
111-1
FOREWORD
This report w a s prepared by t h e ICAS S e l e c t Panel on Weather
b d i f i c a t i o n f o r consideration by t h e Interdepar-tanental
Committee on Atmospheric Sciences as requested by t h e
Chairman a t t h e k y 13, 1966, meeting. It presents a budget
summary of t h e goals, program approach and f a c i l i t i e s of
t h e Federal Departments and Agencies engaged i n weather and
climate modification a c t i v i t i e s f o r FY 1967 and FY 1970. A
b r i e f summary statement by each Department o r Agency i s a l s o
included t o supplement t h e budgetary material.
Attention i s i n v i t e d t o t h e following p o i n t s of i n t e r e s t
i l l u s t r a t e d by t h e matrix presentation.
1.
FY 1967
FY 1970
2.
$4.70 m i l l i o n o u t of $9.33 m i l l i o n t o t a l
'$99.60 m i l l i o n o u t of $146.83 m i l l i o n t o t a l
ESSA
3.
4.
/--c
&&..A
/.j
~ (/ /*L + - - +
4-L-
Earl G. Droessler
Chairman, ICAS S e l e c t Panel
on Weather Modification .
Agency
0.015
1.700
0.140
1.000
0.100
0.400
0.300
27.100
0.140
5.200
0.180 0.660
4.900 12.200
0.930
1.030
BUR.
IiEC
3 .OOO
NSF
0;200
0.500
AGRIC
ESSA
DOD
0.0%
0.110
0.210
0.240
70.000
1.400
2.500
700
1.650
0.200
0.500
0.200
0.750
NASA
FAA
TO TAL
0.115
3.250
0.495
9.350
0.700
1.380
57.600
0.170
2.100
1.230
1.380
0.056
0.060
3.000
70.000
0 100
1
1.000
3.000
7.400
0.214
0.500
0.070
0.150
0.020
0.020
0.150
0.950
1.430
3.030
4.700
99.600
0.855
8.550
0.610
1.070
6.510 13,190
0.235 9.325
4.950 1.46.830
0.434
2.680
-(millions
1970
-I-'
d
ma,
5%
-Po
m d
Agency
AGRIC
ESSA
DOD
qa
0.020
0.185
0.020
0.500
0.045
0.695
0.360
0.830 0.150
39.350 11.450
0.035
1.050
0.100
4.950
0.180
1.050
0.180
0.200
0.030
0.040
0.170
0.190
0.102
4,500
0.186
7.000
4.000
0.700
1.000
0.005
0.070
0.030
0.030
3.910
0.730
0.810
BUR.
mc .
NSF
NASA
0.020
0.450
0..275
2.009
45.000
1.500
0.115
3-250
0.495
9.350
1.150
0.100
0.700
1.550
59.700
0.120
0.140
1.230
1.380
0.090
1.500
0.365
9.000
0.213
2,000
0.035
1.000
3.000
70.000
0.050
0.200
0.575
0.800
0.075
0.100
1.000
7.400
0.030
0.005
0.010
0.040
0.070
0.150
0.020
0.150
0.950
0.400
FAA
0 .I55
0.950
TOTAL
5.349 1.182
93.140 17.630
0.321
8.475
0.935 0.920
7.950 11.325
0.368
4.460
3.000
9.495
0.370
5.950 148.930
111-4
1967
-1970
Agency
AGRIG
0.060
0.220
0.070
0.350
ESSA
DOD
0.040
0.050
BUR.
REG.
NSF
NASA
FAA
TOTAL
0.005 0,010
0.100 0.200
0.050
4.400. 2.600
0.050
0.800
0.010
o.iio 0.050
0.010 0.130 0.060
0.075
2.000
0.250
4.000
0.010 0.455
- 42.200
0.590
0.670
0.250
6.000
0.015
0.500
0.500 0.015
2.000 3.000
0.020 0.060
0.750 1.000 1.500
1.250
0.860
16.000
0.200
0.500
0.080
0.250
0.045
0.100
0.737
1.600
0.010
0.015
0.010
0.015
0.010
0.040
0.005
0.050
0.015
0.090
0.290
9.800
0.470
19.640
0.640
12.620
0.095
1.900
0.010 2.917
64.575
111-5
DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
WEATHER MIDIFICATION PFUIGRAM FOR FY 1967
The Department of Agriculture i s performing o r planning weather
modification research i n f i v e major f i e l d s :
DEPARTMENT OF A G R I C U L m
WEATHER MIDIFICATION PROGRAM FOR FY 1970
(1) Lightning Suppression. On t h e foundation of t h e r e s u l t s
stemming from P r o j e c t Skyfire, the Forest Service i s planning a
strengthened research program including :
( a ) Expanded f i e l d experiments will permit instrumentation
of a l a r g e r area, i n t e n s i f i c a t i o n of measurement of l i g h t n i n g
discharges, and d e l i v e r y of l a r g e r q u a n t i t i e s o f silver-iodide
t o storms s e l e c t e d f o r treatment. Research w i l l be stepped
up on the development of higher output s i l v e r iodide generators
f o r use on a i r c r a f t and a t ground s t a t i o n s . Experimental
c a p a b i l i t i e s will be increased t o permit simultaneous seeding
of two o r more cloud systems i n i n s t m e n t e d t e s t areas.
(b) More i n t e n s i v e i n v e s t i g a t i o n of t h e already i d e n t i f i e d
l i g h t n i n g stroke most l i k e l y t o i g n i t e fires and of t h e
physical processes f o r i t s modification i s planned. Strengthened
l a b o r a t o r y experiments w i l l accelerate i n v e s t i g a t i o n s of t h e
modification of t h e e l e c t r i c a l s t r u c t u r e of simulated clouds
with f r e e z i n g n u c l e i .
111-7
2
The proposed program would include computer simulation s t u d i e s .
The research plan woilld include a continuing comprehensive .analysis
of p r e c i p i t a t i o n d a t a t o determine i f a measurable h e n e f i c i a l o r
detrimental e f f e c t occurred anywhere within t h e system. Concurrently,
t h e r e would be comprehensive controlled ecological s t u d i e s on t h e
e f f e c t on vegetation of d i f f e r e n t amounts and p a t t e r n s of p r e c i p i t a t i o n .
( 5 ) Remote Sensing.
Research w i l l be conducted t o :
111-8
111-9
111-10
WARM FOG
The problem of warm fog and stratus receives t h e major emphasis
i n t h e DOD weather modification program due t o i t s widespread
occurrence and i t s adverse e f f e c t on so many m i l i t a r y operations.
Although a number of approachs have been made i n attempting t o
d i s s i p a t e warm fogs and one technique involving t h e a p p l i c a t i o n
of v a s t q u a n t i t i e s of h e a t has demonstrated a measure of success
t h e r e i s a t present no economically and o p e r a t i o n a l l y f e a s i b l e
method a v a i l a b l e f o r gerleral use. The major portion o f t h e DOD
e f f o r t s i n t h i s a r e a a r e t h e r e f o r e directed toward gaining a
b e t t e r understanding of t h e l i f e cycle of warm fqgs i n terms of
physical parameters t h e knowledge of which w i l l be necessary t o
develop f e a s i b l e d i s s i p a t i o n techniques.
SEVERE STORM I B D I F I C A T I O N
The need f o r finding a way t o moderate t h e i n t e n s i t y of t h e most
v i o l e n t forms of nature i s obvious. The most ambitious a t t a c k on
this problem i n which WD i s involved i s k h e j o i n t DOD-DOC program
f o r experiments on hurricane modification known as P r o j e c t STORMFURY.
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS
The two a r e a s of i n t e r e s t just discussed account f o r 80% of t h e
funds devoted by DOD t o weather modification. Another a r e a o f
i n t e r e s t i s t h e broad t o p i c of convective clouds. This i s o f major
i n t e r e s t not only because of i t s association with severe s torms
b u t a l s o because it i s the dominant type o f a c t i v i t y i n t r o p i c a l
regions where much of DOD's area of operations i s centered.
COLD FOG
This a c t i v i t y accounts f o r o n l y 5% of the research e f f o r t mainly
because it has moved i n t o operational use i n DOD. Research i s
continuing, however, on more e f f i c i e n t modification techniques
such as t h e use of propane gas or t h e t r a n s p o r t a t i o n of d r y i c e
by small balloons.
111-11
2
Associated with these problem a r e a s and necessary t o t h e i r eventual
solution i s t h e work being c a r r i e d out i n cloud physics and
instrumentation development i n r e p o r t of more general problems
i n t h e atmospheric sciences.
111-12
1967
111-13
111-14
'
111-15
2
The growing i n t e r e s t i n t h e s o c i a l , economic, l e g a l , b i o l o g i c a l and
ecological impacts of weather modification created by t h e r e c e n t
r e p o r t o f t h e National Science Foundation Spe c i a 1 Commission on
Weather Modification i s being f o s t e r e d by t h e formation o f t h e Task
Group on Human Dimensions f o r Weather bbdification a t t h e National
Center f o r Atmospheric Research and by a g r a n t with t h e University of
Missouri t o study the socio-economic impact of weather and climate
modification. This i s a f i e l d of research which w i l l receive increasing
emphasis by t h e National Science Foundation i n t h e f u t u r e .
111- 16
It i s a n t i c i p a t e d t h a t t h e r e w i l l be a few large-scale f a c i l i t i e s
funded f o r t h e t e s t i n g o f modification schemes. Typical schemes
might be t h e suspension of a spray nozzle over a v a l l e y between
two mountain peaks t o produce cloud-sized d r o p l e t s i n t o which
e l e c t r i c a l charges can be introduced i n e i t h e r p o l a r i t y , contamban%s,
can be introduced, and t h e drop s i z e spectrum can be adjustec! t o
any reasonable d i s t r i b u t i o n . Under NSF sponsorship, a l a r g e a i r c r a f t
or blimp hanger may a l s o be converted i n t o a fog chamber f o r t e s t i n g
w a r n fog d i s s i p a t i o n techniques.
Research will s t i l l continue i n university l a b o r a t o r i e s on b a s i c
problems r e l e v a n t t o understanding atmospheric processes, and
"small science" hopefully will continue t o be supported along with
t h e e f f o r t s of " b i g science."
Emphasis w i l l be increased on t h e
mathematical modeling of t h e atmospheric processes and on t h e
techniques f o r simulating modification processes on t h e computer
before t e s t i n g them i n t h e atmosphere.
Increasing a t t e n t i o n ' w i l l be paid t o the problem of making measurements.
111-17
2
I n general, by FY 1970 it i s visualized t h a t t h e t r a n s i t i o n of
weather modification from I' small science" t o "big science" w i l l
be w e l l on t h e way. NSF will continue t o provide t h e major
support of t h e u n i v e r s i t y researcher and h i s graduate students
i n t h e f i e l d of b a s i c atmospheric research i n weather modiflcation.
The matrix f i g u r e s f o r NSF i n FY 1970 a r e an estimate of t h e needs
of t h e non-government s c i e n t i f i c community.
111-19
111-20
20230
National Weathe
Modification Program
IV-1
APPENDIX IV
IV-2
MEMBERSHIP
CHRONOLOGY OF MEETINGS
COMPILATION O F SUPPORTING
MATERIAL USED BY THE PANEL
APPENDIX V
V-l
v-2
Chronology of Meetings
2 1 June 1966, NASA H e a d q u a r t e r s
Receipt of Hollomon m e m o d a t e d 2 1 J u n e 1966 g i v i n g
a s s i g n m e n t t o H o m e r E. N e w e l l , and the o r g a n i z a t i o n
of a Panel t o a s s i s t N e w e l l
27,28
1 J u l y 1966, NASA H q s
P a n e l b r i e f i n g by D r . E a r l Droessler
V-3
Panel meeting
v-4
2.
3.
4.
DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
5.
6.
7.
V-5
8.
U.
S . Dept.
DEPARTMENT OF INTERIOR
9.
10.
11. Dept. of Interior, Manpower Requirements and Cost Estimates (from Sept 1966 Plan Report)
12.
DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
13
14.
15
V-6
16.
17.
18.
Report of the Special Commission on Weather Modification, National Science Foundation, WEATHER AND CLIMATE
MODIFICATION, Publication No. NSF 66-3, transmitted to
NSF December 2 0 , 1965
20.
21.
22.
23.
24.
v-7
25.
26.
27.
28.
29.
30.
Report of the FIRST NATIONAL SYMPOSIUM ON HAIL SUPPRESSION. Dillon, Colorado, October 14-15, 1965
31.
32.
33.
V-8
for a
National Weather Modification Program
APPENDIX VI
VI-1
N0I 1VaNno4
33N313S W N O I I V N
1
33N3DS lVlN1WNOt1IAN3
I
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LL
mniin3it1gv
VI-2
0
I6
CY
I-
m
-
i
n
4
m
W
V
W
m
W
2
\
.-I
5
Z
Z
0
E
>
Z
W
8 U.S.
GOVERNMENT P R I N T I N G OFFICE:
VI-3
1967-251-026/100