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    Typology of Human Extinction Risks

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    Turchin Alexei
    Typology of human extinction risks

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    © All Rights Reserved
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    Typology of Human Extinction Risks

    Uploaded by

    Turchin Alexei
    2K views1 page
    Typology of human extinction risks

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    Typology of human extinction risks

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    © © All Rights Reserved

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    Typology of human extinction risks

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    2K views1 page

    Typology of Human Extinction Risks

    Uploaded by

    Turchin Alexei
    Typology of human extinction risks

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    of 1

    Typology

    Possible timeline

    Main adverse
    factor of
    the
    catastrophe

    of

    Human

    Extinction

    Risks

    100 000 BC

    20 century

    Beginning of the 21 century

    2030

    2050

    3000

    Natural
    risks

    Natural risks
    activated by
    human activity

    Based on
    known
    technologies

    Based on
    new
    technologies

    Superintelligence
    as final
    technology

    Remote and
    hypothetical
    risks

    Explosions

    Energy

    Big asteroid impact (20 km size)


    Supervolcano explosion,
    flood basalt event
    Gamma ray burst, nearby
    supernova, neutrino from it
    Solar flare or CME during weak
    earth magnetic field
    Sun grazing comet lead to large
    flare
    Ocean catastropic degasation
    Hypercane (disturbance of
    stability of the atmosphere)
    Warming of the Earths core by
    WIMPs (Rampino), its catastrophic
    degazation or collapse
    Activisation of Galactic central black
    hole
    Relict black holes
    Collapse of false vacuum

    Giant energy release


    Accidental start of natural
    catastrophe

    Nuclear weapons
    Nuclear war
    Artificial explosion of
    supervolcanos
    Nuclear winter
    Artificial nuclear winter by
    explosions in forests
    Artificial runaway global
    warming by nuclear explosions on
    Arctic shelf and methane release

    Runaway global warming


    (Venusian scenario)
    New Ice Age
    Disruption of electric grid
    because of solar flare

    Simple way of creation of


    nuclear weapons
    Accident on a collider:
    micro black hole, false vacuum
    decay, strangelet
    Catastrophic magma release due
    to crust penetration (Stevenson
    probe)
    Creation of superbomb
    Artificial diverting of asteroids to
    Earth using precise calculations of
    celestial mechanics (space billiards)

    War with AI

    Artificial explosions in space

    Different types of AI
    Friendliness
    Several AI fight each other for
    world dominance
    Nuclear war against AI or against
    attempts to create it
    Military drones rebell

    Thermonuclear detonation of large


    gas planets
    Artificial black holes

    Unfriendly AI destroy
    humanity

    Encounter with alien


    intelligence

    Failure of control system


    Competitors

    Intelligence

    Another type of humans

    (like Homo sapience were for


    Neanderthals)
    Another type of intelligent
    specie

    Disjunction

    Impairment of intelligence

    Human enhancement leads to


    competing species

    Ignorance and neglect of


    existential risks
    Dangerous memes
    (fascism, fundamentalism)
    Cognitive biases
    Risky decisions (nuclear war)
    Tragedy of the Commons
    (arms race)

    Super addictive drug (brain


    stimulation)
    Malfunction in robotic army causes
    mass destruction
    Computer virus with narrow AI
    uses home robots and bioprinters
    Dangerous meme (like ISIS)
    GMO parasite that causes mass
    destructive behaviour
    Accidental nuclear war

    As a risk to this AI
    To get resources for his goals
    (Paperclip maximaizer)
    Realize incorrectly formulated
    friendliness (Smile maximizer)
    Fatal error in late stage AI (AI
    halting)

    Downloading Alien AI via SETI


    ET arrive on Earth
    METI attracts dangerous ET
    Beings from other dimensions
    We live in simulation and it
    switched off or is built to model
    catastrophes

    Synthetic biology

    Organisms

    Replication

    Pandemic
    Super pest
    Dangerous predator
    Dangerous carrier
    (mosquitoes)

    Atmosphere

    Poisoning

    Atmospheric composition change


    (disappearance of oxygen)
    Release of toxic gases
    (volcanism, methane hydrates,
    dissolved gases in the ocean)

    Classical species extinction

    Combined
    scenarios

    Probability

    The confluence of a set of many


    adverse circumstances
    Changing environment and
    competitors

    From 1 to 1 000 000 to


    1 to 100 000 a year based on
    historic risks and other species
    survival time

    Biological weapons

    Overpopulation followed by

    Dangerous pandemic (e.g.:


    mutated flu)
    Mistake of biodefense
    (contaminated vaccination, SV40)
    Artificial pest
    Omnivorous bacteria and fungi
    Toxin producing GMO
    organisms (dioxin, VX)
    Cancer cell line adapted to live
    in population (HELA)

    collapse

    Genetic degradation

    Reduction of the medium level


    of intelligence in population
    Decline in fertility
    The accumulation of deleterious
    mutations
    Antibiotic-resistant bacteria

    Ecology
    The accumulation of new toxins
    in the biosphere and its collapse
    Resource depletion

    Chain of
    natural disasters
    Epidemic followed by
    degradation and extinction
    Degeneration of ability of the
    biosphere to regenerate, then loss
    of the technology and starvation
    Death of crops from superpest,
    than hunger and war

    Global contamination
    Deliberated chemical
    contamination (Doixin build-up and
    release)
    Deliberate destruction of all
    nuclear reactors using nuclear weapons
    Autocatalytic reaction like Ice-9,
    artificial prions

    War as a trigger
    Nuclear war leads to use or release
    of biological weapons
    World War leads to arms race and
    creation of Doomsday Machines
    System crisis caused by many
    factors

    Small, as such risks are longterm, but more


    dangerous risks of new technologies could happened much
    earlier

    The roadmap is based on the book Risks of human extinction in the 21 century (Alexey Turchin and Michael Anissimov).
    Most important risks are in bold. Most hypothectical are italic. This roadmap is accompained by another one about the ways of prevention of existential risks.
    Alexey Turchin, 2015, GNU-like license. Free copying and design editing, discuss major updates with Alexey Turchin.
    http://immortality-roadmap.com/ last updated version here
    Proofreading and advise: Michael Anissimov

    0.1 1%
    a year

    Multipandemic based on genetic engineering (10-100 lethal


    viruses)
    Home bioprinters and
    biohackers
    Artificial carriers like flies
    Green goo (biosphere is eaten by
    artificial bioreplicators and viruses)
    Fast replicating killers (poisonous
    locust)

    Nanotech

    Grey goo (unlimited replication)


    Nanotech weapons (small robots)
    Universal nanoprinter (creates
    all other weapons)

    Artificial global contamination


    (Doomsday machine)
    Cobalt superbomb with global
    contamination
    Destruction of electric grid by
    nuclear explosions in stratosphere
    Several Doomsday machines with
    contradictory conditions
    Artificial penetration of earth core
    with reactor-probe

    Control systems failure


    As a result of the civilizational
    crisis geoengineering system of
    termoregulation fails and a sharp
    global warming results (Seth Baum)
    Failure of Bioshield or Nanoshield
    where it malfunctions and threatens
    humanity or the biosphere

    10 30%
    total

    Catastrophe on the level of


    mind and values

    Extraterrestrial robots
    ET nanorobots-replicators
    ET robots-berserkers, killing
    civilization after certain threshold

    Humans are uploaded but became


    philosophical zombie without qualia
    Mass unemployment caused by
    automation causes ennui, and
    suicide
    Computer virus used for mass
    attack on widely implanted brain
    interface chips

    Whimpers
    (values contamination)
    Value system of posthumanity
    moves away from ours
    Evil AI, which goal is to maximize
    suffering of as much humans as
    possible (worse than I Have No
    Mouth, and I Must Scream)

    Catalysts of bad scenarios


    Cold War leads to creation of
    Unfriendly AI
    Asteroid impact causes accidental
    nuclear war
    Scientists studying deadly viruses
    accidentally release them

    50%
    total

    Unknown physical laws

    Weapons based on them


    Unexpected results of experiments
    Dangerous natural phenomena
    End of the Universe: Big Rip,
    vacuum state transition
    Unknown unknowns

    Complexity crisis
    Unpredictably, chaos, and black
    swans lead to catastrophe

    Small

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