Predictive Policing in California Elected Officials 2015 Summer
Predictive Policing in California Elected Officials 2015 Summer
Predictive Policing in California Elected Officials 2015 Summer
Summer 2015
Predictive policing has become a widely discussed phrase in the last few years. The National
Institute of Justice the research, development and evaluation agency of the United States
Department of Justice notes that law enforcement work is frequently reactive: officers respond
to calls for service, quell disturbances and make arrests.1 In contrast, explains the NIJ, predictive
policing uses data, geospatial models, and intervention models to predict what and where [and
when] something is likely to happen and to deploy resources accordingly.
Very importantly, the NIJ says, The predictive policing approach does not replace traditional
policing. Instead, it enhances existing approaches such as problem-oriented policing,
community policing, intelligence-led policing and hot spot policing.
A screenshot of small,
500 x 500 crime
prediction boxes that
patrol officers receive on
paper or any mobile
device. Predictions are
specific to their shift and
California include Richmond, Modesto, Burbank, Livermore, and Woodland, among many
others. Deployments outside California include Atlanta, Orange County (Orlando), Kent
(England), and Montevideo (Uruguay).
The crime prevention technology generates predictions about which places and windows of
time are at highest risk for future crimes, creating actionable intelligence by which police can
more efficiently and effective direct patrols during each shift of each day of the week.
Designed as an everyday tool for command staff, analysts, supervisors, and officers on the
beat, police spend a few minutes during their shifts covering small, 500 x 500, high risk boxes
displayed on maps. The presence of the officers and neighborhood leaders in these boxes create
a deterrence effect that reduces opportunities for and increases risks of criminal activity.
Here's a little more:
Predicted crimes include property offenses, traffic accidents, drug incidents, gang
activity, gun violence, and more.
Police can focus constrained resources more efficiently while giving their officers
specific direction when they have free time between calls for service.
Cities are measuring success by impacts on crime rates, by the ability to predict
more crime than their existing tools like hotspot mapping, and by the increased
visibility of police and community policing neighborhood groups.
PredPol has contributed to double digit drops in crimes according to statistics from
police themselves.
Even when crime is rising, like is happening in 2015 in many California cities,
predictive policing data from police have shown that the increase is slower compared
to areas not using the methodology.
Predictive policing has excelled in controlled scientific field tests, predicting twice as
many future crimes as best practices in those cities.
ONLY DATA
NEEDED
Type of Crime
Place of Crime
Time of Crime
NOT USED
Demographic Data
Socioeconomic Info
Private Information
Police reliably know and patrol the top three or four riskiest
locations in their operational environment for any particular shift on any particular day. It is
much harder and time-consuming, though, for law enforcement to identify and choose between a
few dozen locations during any shift, especially because high risk areas move around from day to
day. Nighttime crime is different than during daytime, while Tuesdays crime is different
than Saturdays. Opportunities to disrupt crime in these places are missed and thus crime
prevention and reduction becomes unnecessarily difficult.
Current forecasting tools, like a traditional hotspot map on the left, are often
underused because they are ambiguous and confusing. They also use only past
crimes to predict future events somewhat effective, but not nearly as much as
predictive policing. In contrast, near real-time geospatial intelligence should be
displayed in a way that is easy to understand: Patrol these boxes when you are