Monthly FX Report - November 15
Monthly FX Report - November 15
Monthly FX Report - November 15
November 2015
EUR/USD 1M
EUR/USD 1Y
1,4000
1,1200
1,3500
1,1000
1,3000
1,0800
1,2500
1,0600
1,2000
1,1500
1,0400
1,1000
1,0200
1,0500
1,0000
1,0000
3-Nov
10- Nov
17- Nov
24- Nov
Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
MARKET ANALYSIS
Technical Analysis
November was characterized by a downtrend. Although the EUR/USD only fell by 4.1% during this period, it recorded 13 negative trading
sessions out of 21. A clear sign of this bearish trend is the big fall in the MACD on the first days of the month. But, on the 10 th of November,
there was a bullish crossover, when the MACD crossed the signal line and rose above it. In fact the downtrend did slowdown, but the
EUR/USD kept on falling. Applying a Fibonacci Retracement on the downtrend, we can identify two strong lines. The first at 23.6% of the
downtrend (1.068). This originally was a support line, but since the 17th of November served as a resistance several times. The second
strong line is at the bottom of the downtrend (0.0%). This became an important support line (1.057) for the last trading sessions of the
month, and its expected to keep as a reference support point in the next month. Should the security rise, we predict further resistances at
1.060, 1.064 and 1.068.
Fundamental Analysis
The EUR/USD went down this month, closing below 1.06. It began
when Fed Chair was testifying: "we still see the risks to economic
growth" leading the currency to 1.0882. This trend was reversed
with the release of unemployment claims in the US worse than
expected (276k against 263K). On the other hand, Draghi said
"other instruments could also be activated", reinforcing that ECB
will use the necessary measures to stimulate the economy. The key
indicators such as Core Retail Sales, PPI and CPI outperformed
expectation. Also the German ZEW Economic Sentiment was
positive, showing that the economy is growing at a better perceived
value than predicted, despite the indicators the currency kept its
falling trend to 1.0570. Yellen avoided comments but she said: we
see a domestic economy that is pretty strong and growing at a solid
pace leading us to believe that FED will raise the interest rates on
16th December.
Calendar
Pedro Guimares
Analyst & Trader
lvaro Leal
Rui Ramos
Hugo Sanches
Analyst & Editor
Joana Silva
Analyst & Trader