FL-13 Data Targeting For David Jolly (Sept 2016)

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FROM
Matt Mitchell, Data Targeting, Inc.
TO
David Jolly Campaign
CC
Marc Reichelderfer; Pat Bainter
RE
Results FLCD13 Post-Primary Benchmark
DATE
16 September 2016
Executive Summary
The 13th Congressional District is a battleground race but David Jolly enters the last
seven weeks of the election in excellent shape while Charlie Crist is carrying
particularly high negatives that put him in danger of losing his third competitive
election in a row.
Key Findings
Survey respondents were more than twice as likely to have an unfavorable

impression of Charlie Crist as they were to have an unfavorable impression of
David Jolly. 37% of respondents had an unfavorable impression of Charlie
Crist to just 16% with unfavorable views of David Jolly. Crist is barely above
water with voters over the age of 65, a demographic group most likely to have had a
front row seat for the entirety of Crists 30 years of running for office. Crist is
severely underwater in Pinellas County Commission District 6 (Pinellas
Park/Seminole/Beaches/Old Northeast St Pete), much of which he has represented
at one time or another.
46% of all respondents and 74% of respondents with a qualified impression of

David Jolly had a favorable impression of him. Jolly enjoys some crossover
appeal as 34% of Democrats view him favorably to just 24% with unfavorable
impressions. He enjoys a net +45% favorable rating with voters over the age of 65.
In Commission District 6, his net favorable name ID is +40% and he leads Crist in
that area by 23%.
Candidate
David Jolly
Charlie Crist (D)
Favorable
46%
46%
Unfavorable
16%
37%
No Opinion
22%
15%
Never Heard Of
16%
3%
By a 57% to 32% margin, respondents wanted to move away from the vision
and policies of Barack Obama, to whom Charlie Crist has linked his political
fortunes since The Hug. In the years since his departure from the Republican
Party, Crist has re-re-rebranded himself as an Obama Democrat. But by a decisive
margin, respondents in our survey wanted a new President who would set their own
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vision for America and move away from the policies of President Obama. Such
numbers suggest that Crist will be faced with another decision on whether to
continue his embrace of an Obama agenda that is not supported in the district, or to
rebrand yet again to try and improve his electoral fortunes.
The congressional ballot test is tied at 46% apiece but Jolly has some
advantages going into the final weeks. Among the few remaining undecideds
Crists name recognition is a net -17%. Less than half of undecideds had a qualified
opinion of Jolly compared to 61% with a qualified opinion of Crist. And Jollys net
favorable name recognition with Democrats in +10% while Crists net favorability
with Republicans is -30%. With so few undecided voters left, crossover appeal is
essential to gaining competitive advantage and making incremental gains and for the
moment, Congressman Jolly is better position to realize those gains than Crist.
Option
David Jolly
Charlie Crist (D)
Unsure
Refused
Ballot Test
46%
46%
8%
N/A
Methodology
The survey was conducted by Data Targeting on the evenings of September 8th through 10th,
2016 using telephone interviews conducted by live interviewers. Calls were made to voters
with both landline and cellular phones, and 103 interviews or 34% of all completed
interviews were taken by voters with cell phones. Survey respondents are active registered
voters in Floridas 13th Congressional District, and their inclusion in our initial survey sample
was determined based on their likelihood of voting in the 2016 general election using a
proprietary model developed by Data Targeting. A voters likelihood of being selected in our
sample was equal to their predicted likelihood of voting in the 2016 general election. For
example, if a voter is predicted to have a 35.2% chance of voting in the upcoming election,
his likelihood of being included in our survey sample was 35.2%.
A total of 300 respondents completed the survey over those evenings. Survey results are
weighted to proportions of turnout in the 2012 general election in District 13 by age, race,
party, gender and Pinellas County Commission District. The turnout proportions to which
we weighted our results are listed below in R code. Results have a margin of error of +/5.7% within a confidence interval of 95%.
pop.age <- data.frame(agecat=1:4, freq=c(.133, .194, .324, .350))
pop.gender <- data.frame(gender=c("Male", "Female"), freq=c(.438, .562))
pop.race <- data.frame(race=c("W", "OTH"), freq=c(.809, .191))
pop.party <- data.frame(party_cat=c("REP", "DEM", "IND"), freq=c(.383, .404, .213))
pop.ccd <- data.frame(ccd=4:7, freq=c(.017, .298, .360, .325))
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Matt Mitchell, Data Targeting, Inc.

David Jolly Campaign

Marc Reichelderfer; Pat Bainter

Results FLCD13 Post-Primary Benchmark

Survey respondents were more than twice as likely to have an unfavorable

46% of all respondents and 74% of respondents with a qualified impression of

CONFIDENTIAL DO NOT COPY WITHOUT PERMISSION

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