Result Update

India Cement (INDCEM)

Rating matrix
Rating
Target
Target Period
Potential Upside

:
:
:
:

Buy
| 105
12-15 months
13%

Changed from | 80 to | 105

Unchanged
Unchanged
Changed from Hold to Buy

Quarterly performance
Revenue
EBITDA
EBITDA (%)
PAT

Q4FY16
1,147.1
211.5
18.4
51.2

Q4FY15 YoY (%)

1,025.0
11.9
182.2
16.1
17.8 66 bps
36.6
39.9

Q3FY16 QoQ (%)

929.6
23.4
146.3
44.6
15.7 270 bps
5.5
826.0

Key financials
| Crore

FY15

FY16

FY17E*

FY18E*

Net Sales

4,418.8

4,226.9

4,508.8

4,892.7

EBITDA
Net Profit

677.8

781.3

829.5

937.2

29.4

137.9

174.5

256.4

EPS (|)
1.0
* excludes revenues from IPL

4.5

5.7

8.3

Valuation summary
FY15

FY16

FY17E*

97.5

20.8

16.4

11.2

Target P/E

109.6

23.4

18.5

12.6

EV/EBITDA

9.0

7.5

6.8

5.7

EV/Tonne($)

66

63

61

58

RoNW (%)

0.8
0.8

0.8
3.8

0.8
4.6

0.7
6.4

RoCE (%)

6.1

8.5

8.8

10.3

P/E

P/BV

FY18E*

Stock data
Amount

Particular
Mcap

| 2869 crore

Debt (FY16)

| 2955 crore

Cash & Invest (FY16)

| 4 crore

EV
52 week H/L

| 5821 crore
| 103 / 64

Equity cap

| 307.2 crore

Face value

| 10

India Cements (ICL) results were in line with our expectation. Q4FY16
revenues increased 11.9% YoY to | 1,147.1 crore (in line with I-direct
estimate: | 1,154.3 crore) led by 18.0% YoY increase in volumes (driven
by pick-up in demand from AP and Telangana) while realisation
declined 3.9% YoY
Cement EBITDA/tonne increased 2.3% YoY to | 844/tonne (vs. I-direct
estimate of | 811) led by lower power & fuel cost
Net profit increased 39.9% YoY to | 51.2 crore led by decline in interest
(down 12.8% YoY) and depreciation expenses (down 11.4% YoY)
For the full year, revenues declined 4.4% YoY to | 4,226.9 crore. Net
profit was at | 137.9 crore. The company recommended a dividend of
| 1 per share
Improving demand from IHB, infrastructure projects to drive growth
ICL reported strong volume growth (~18.0% YoY) in Q4FY16 after 10
quarters of consecutive decline in volumes mainly led by a pick-up in
demand. Going forward, we expect the company to register strong growth in
revenues mainly led by increase in demand from individual house builders,
Tamil Nadu housing scheme for poor and pick-up in infra spend in AP &
Telangana. Considering this, we expect volumes to grow at a CAGR of 5.4%
in FY16-18E.
Improving operating efficiency by increasing pet coke, setting up of power
plant and higher capex
The company is one of the least efficient players in the industry. Its power
cost per tonne (| 1,247) was 25% higher than industry in FY15. However, ICL
has taken initiatives to improve power and fuel cost by increasing pet coke
consumption to 34% of overall requirement, helping in reducing power cost
per tonne by 12.5% YoY. Further, the company is planning to increase pet
coke usage to 60-65%. In addition, ICL has installed captive power plant of
50 MW at Vishnupuram in Andhra Pradesh, which is expected to stabilise
from FY17E. The plant will cater to the requirement of cement plants in
Andhra Pradesh. Further, the company is investing | 250 crore in FY17E to
improve efficiency of its cement plants. Considering this, we expect margins
to improve 67 bps to 19.2% over FY16-18E.
Improving cash flow, reduction in debt key positive
ICL has reduced its debt by ~ | 286 crore to | 2,955 crore mainly due to
improvement in margins and lower working capital outflow. Going forward,
we expect debt to further reduce by | 440 crore to | 2,535 crore in FY18E
mainly led by improving cash flow and working capital efficiency. Given this,
we expect debt to equity to improve from 0.8x in FY16 to 0.6x in FY18E.
Better financial performance, attractive valuation prompt us to upgrade stock

Price performance

With better realisations in the south and improved outlook on the demand
side on verge of formation of new state, we expect utilisations to improve
-1.1 from here on. Further, we expect cost rationalisation led by better fuel mix,
-0.9 installation power plant in AP and improving efficiency of plants to drive
1.7 margins. In addition, with improving cash flow we expect debt to reduce
over the next two years. Further, the stock is trading at attractive valuation of
US$58/t. Considering this, we upgrade the stock from HOLD to BUY with a
revised target price of | 105 (i.e EV/EBITDA of 6x and EV/tonne of US$62).

1M

3M

6M

12M

1.0

52.5

32.1

38.4

India Cement

0.3

33.2

5.6

JK Cement

-2.0

23.1

-7.5

JK Lakshmi Cem

-5.5

29.4

-1.7

Heildelberg Cem

| 93

Decline in power & fuel cost drives margins

Whats changed?
Target
EPS FY17E
EPS FY18E
Rating

May 27, 2016

Research Analyst
Rashesh Shah
[email protected]
Devang Bhatt
[email protected]

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Variance analysis
Q4FY16 Q4FY16E
Total Operating Income
Other Income
Raw Material Expenses
Employee Expenses
Stock Adjustment

Q4FY15

YoY (%) Q3FY16 QoQ (%)

1147.1
7.0
199.2
93.3
-23.2

1154.3
5.0
197.1
91.0
0.0

258.9
234.4
173.2
211.5
18.4
91.3
52.2
75.0
23.8

250.2
244.8
157.6
213.6
18.5
93.9
55.3
69.3
21.2

51.2

48.1

36.6

39.9

5.5

826.0

2.47
4,610
844

2.39
4,749
811

2.09
4,799
825

18.0
-3.9
2.3

1.94
4,709
732

27.5
-2.1
15.3

Power & Fuel

Freight cost
Others
EBITDA
EBITDA Margin (%)
Interest
Depreciation
PBT
Total Tax
PAT
Key Metrics
Volume (MT)
Realisation (|)
Cement EBITDA per Tonne (|)

1025.0
18.1
152.1
84.8
-7.9

11.9
-61.2
31.0
9.9
NA

273.5
-5.4
207.7
12.9
132.6
30.6
182.2
16.1
17.8 66 bps
104.7
-12.8
59.0
-11.4
36.6
104.9
0.0
NA

929.6
7.4
155.3
73.8
14.4

23.4
-5.8
28.2
26.4
N.A

202.9
27.6
194.6
20.5
142.3
21.7
146.3
44.6
15.7 270 bps
90.6
0.8
55.2
-5.4
8.0
840.8
2.4
874.2

Comments
The increase in revenues was mainly due to rise in volumes (led by pick-up in
demand from AP and Telangana) while realisation declined 3.9% YoY

The decline in power & fuel cost on a YoY basis was due to higher pet coke usage
(coal:pet coke mix 66:34)

Margin improvement was mainly due to lower power & fuel cost
Fall in depreciation charge was due to a change in rate of depreciation

Lower depreciation and interest expenses led the company to report higher net
profit during the quarter

Pick-up in demand from AP and Telangana helped drive volume growth

Lower power & fuel cost per tonne led to higher EBITDA/tonne

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Change in estimates
Old

FY17E*
New

% Change

Old

FY18E*
New

% Change

4,553.9
855.8

4,508.8
829.5

-1.0
-3.1

N.A
N.A

4,892.7
937.2

N.A
N.A

18.8
176.1
5.7

18.4
174.5
5.7

-40 bps
-0.9
-0.9

N.A
N.A
N.A

19.2
256.4
8.3

N.A
N.A
N.A

(| Crore)
Revenue*
EBITDA
EBITDA Margin (%)
PAT
EPS (|)

Comments
We have kept our revenue estimate unchanged
Margins are expected to improve 67 bps to 19.6% over
FY16-18E
Reduction in debt to positively impact PAT

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research *Revised estimates are excluding revenue from IPL business which has been transferred to Trust.

Assumptions

Volume (MT)
Cement Realisation (|)
Cement EBITDA per Tonne (|)

FY13

FY14

FY15

Current
FY16

FY17E

FY18E

Earlier
FY16E FY17E

10.1
4,362

10.0
4,183

9.1
4,605

8.7
4,810

9.1
4,904

9.6
5,011

8.3
4,866

783

289

500

832

844

901

835

Comments

8.9 We expect volume to increase at a CAGR of 5.4% over FY16-18E

5,027
Expect EBITDA/tonne to improve to | 901 in FY18E from | 832 in
882 FY16

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Page 2

Company Analysis
Capacity spread

Largest manufacturer of cement in South India

India Cement is the largest cement manufacturer in the southern region with
an installed capacity of 13.1 MTPA in the southern region. While 1.1 MTPA of
capacity is in Maharashtra, 1.5 MTPA of capacity is in Banswara, Rajasthan.
Out of total revenue, ~85-90% of sales come from the southern region for
the company. Due to excess capacity in the southern region, the company is
vulnerable to the demand supply mismatch of the southern region. Going
ahead, after the resolution of Telangana issue in the region, we expect
demand to improve from here on. However, given the additional capacity,
the utilisation level is unlikely to exceed ~68-69% till FY17-18E, which will
limit the volume growth for the company.

Rajasthan
10%

Maharastra
7%

Tamilnadu
38%

Andhra
Pradesh
45%

Exhibit 1: Demand supply dynamics of South India

Sales mix
East
4%

West
17%

Million tonnes

FY09

Effective Capacity

67.0

Production
Capacity Utilisation (%)

59.7
89.1

Consumption

59.7

Consumption Growth(%)
Surplus/Deficit

10.4
7.3

Tamil Nadu
and Andhra
prdesh
57%

FY13
119.0
68.3

FY14P
123
69

61.1
67.2
1.8

57.4
68.3
1.6

56
69
1

42.8

50.7

54

66.0
4.9
35.5

FY15E
128.0
73.0
57.0
71.5
3.9
56.5

The company is one of the least efficient players in the industry. Its power
cost per tonne (| 1,247) was 25% higher than the industry in FY15. However,
the company has taken initiatives to improve power and fuel cost by
increasing pet coke consumption to 34% of overall requirement, which has
helped in reducing power cost per tonne by 12.5% YoY. In addition, the
company has installed captive power plant of 50 MW at Vishnupuram in
Andhra Pradesh which is expected to stabilise from FY17E. The plant will
cater to the requirement of cement plants in Andhra Pradesh. Further, the
company is investing | 250 crore in FY17E to improve efficiency of its
cement plants. Considering this we expect margins to improve 67 bps to
19.2% over FY16-18E.

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

724
500

693

962
783

887
879
693

289

412

200

India Cement

FY 15

FY14

FY13

FY12

FY11

0
FY10

11

FY09

FY14

FY13

FY12

FY11

FY10

FY09

Industry

600
400

18

12

India Cement

800

FY08

21

16

(|)

23

16

FY 15

19
25

22

754

1,000
21

1,017

28

931
940

Exhibit 3: EBITDA/tonne compared to industry

1,200

27

34

FY08

66.0
65.0

FY12
110.0
67.2

Improving operating efficiency to drive margins

Exhibit 2: EBITDA margin compared to industry

(%)

20.1

1,117
1,063

Kerala
10%

32

75.9
62.9
5.4

FY11
101.5

Source: ICICIdirect.com Research

Telengana
12%

40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0

FY10
83.0
63.0

Industry

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Improving cash flow, reduction in debt a key positive

ICL has reduced its debt by ~ | 286 crore to | 2,955 crore mainly due to
improvement in margins and lower working capital outflow. Going forward,
we expect debt to further reduce by | 440 crore to | 2,535 crore mainly led
by improving cash flow and working capital efficiency. Given this, we expect
debt to equity to improve from 0.8x in FY16 to 0.6x in FY18E.

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Page 3

Expect revenue CAGR of 7.6% in FY16-18E

Revenues have grown at a CAGR of 3.8% in FY11-16 while in FY12-14, the
growth was lower at 2.8% led by a slowdown in AP coupled with higher
cement capacity. Going forward, with the resolution of the Telangana issue
and a strong focus towards infrastructure development by the government,
we expect revenue to grow at a CAGR of 7.6% in FY16-18E on account of an
improvement in capacity utilisation.
Exhibit 4: Expect revenue CAGR of 7.6% during FY16-18E

Exhibit 5: Capacity addition plans

State

6000
4597

4441

4419

4509

4227

4893

3501

2000
1000
0
FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16* FY17E* FY18E*

*Ex-IPL revenues

Tamilnadu

South
South

Yerraguntla, Kadapa
Vishnupuram, Nalgonda

Andhra Pradesh

South

Andhra Pradesh

South

Malkapur, Ranga Reddy

Parli Vaijnath, Beed

Andhra Pradesh

South

Maharashtra

West

Rajasthan

North

10.05

10.02

9.11

9.06

8.66

9.00

9.62

6.00

(|/tonne)

6000
9.53

0.7
2.5
2.4
1.1
1.5
15.7

Exhibit 7: Realisation to grow at CAGR of 2.1% during FY16-18E

15.00
9.97

1.1
1.5

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 6: Volume trend

4000

3375

4810 4904 5011

4215 4362 4183 4605

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY16

FY15

FY17E FY18E
Cement Realisation (|/tonne) -LS

FY18E

FY12

FY17E

FY11

FY14

-10

FY11

0.00

20
0

3.00

30
10

2000

FY13

12.00

0.9
1.9

banswara
Total

Net Sales (| crore)

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

South
South

Andhra Pradesh

Vallur Village, Tiruvallur

Chilamakur, Kadapa

3000

Tamilnadu
Tamilnadu

Sankari, Salem
Dalavoi, Ariyalur

FY12

4000

4203

MT
2.1

Tamilnadu

(%)

5000

Region
South

Sankarnagar, Tirunelveli

Growth (%) -RS

Sales volumes (In MT) -LHS

Growth (%) -RHS

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

4904

4709

4610

Q2FY16

Q3FY16

Q4FY16

5041

4799
Q4FY15

Q1FY16

4795
Q3FY15

4655

4244

4027

4429

4116

4189

Q2FY15

Q1FY15

Q4FY14

Q4FY16

Q3FY16

Q2FY16

Q1FY16

Q4FY15

Q3FY15

Q2FY15

Q1FY15

Q4FY14

Q3FY14

Q2FY14

Q1FY14

Q4FY13

-30.0

Q3FY14

-20.0

0.50
0.00

Q2FY14

-10.0

Q4FY13

0.0

Q1FY14

10.0

5500
5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000

4221

20.0

|/tonne

2.47

1.94

2.16

2.10

2.00
1.50
1.00

2.09

2.11

2.35

2.64

2.56

3.00
2.50

2.29

Exhibit 9: Realisation declines 3.9% YoY to | 4,610/tonne

2.44

Exhibit 8: Q4FY16 volumes increase 18.0% YoY

2.78

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

2.65

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Realisation-LHS

50
40
30
20
10
0
-10

Growth (%) -RHS

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Page 4

(%)

Sales Volumes (In mn)

Margins to improve gradually, going forward

We expect margins to improve gradually during our forecast period of FY1618E led by healthy realisations, cost rationalisation and higher utilisation.
Exhibit 10: Expect EBITDA/tonne of | 901 in FY18E
887

800

901

844

35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0

500

412

289

400
200
0
FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

21.5

18.3

12.4

FY11

FY15 FY16* FY17E*FY18E*

12.1

FY12

FY13

Cement EBITDA/Tonne

FY14

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 12: Q4FY16 cement EBITDA at | 844/t

Exhibit 13: Margin trend (%)

1200
1000

408

388

400

885

732

618

592

569 572

825

20

844

17.8

15

448

14.1

15.4
11.7

10

13.9

19.2

18.4

FY15 FY16* FY17E* FY18E*

200

12.9

15.8 15.3

17.8 18.2

21.2
15.7

18.4

6.9

Q4FY16

Q3FY16

Q2FY16

Q1FY16

Q4FY15

Q3FY15

Q1FY15

Q4FY14

Q3FY14

Q2FY14

Q4FY16

Q3FY16

Q2FY16

Q1FY16

Q4FY15

Q3FY15

Q2FY15

Q1FY15

Q4FY14

Q3FY14

Q2FY14

Q1FY14

Q4FY13

Q1FY14

Q3FY13

Q4FY13

600

755

18.5

25

994

(%)

800

15.3

EBITDA Margin (%)

Q2FY15

600

832

783

(%)

1000

Exhibit 11: Margins to improve gradually

EBITDA Margin (%)

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Expect net margins to improve during FY16-18E

After reporting a loss in FY14, we expect net margins to improve to 5.2% in
FY18E from 3.3% in FY16. Overall, we expect the company to report a net
profit of | 256.4 crore during FY18E from a loss of | 35.9 crore in FY14.
Exhibit 14: Profitability trend

20
296.0

| crore

300
200
100

7.0

256.4
176.3

-0.8
FY11

FY12

FY13

Net profit - LS

174.5
3.9

3.6

65.7
1.9

0
-100

152.6

FY14
-35.9

29.4
0.7

5.2

15
10
5

(%)

400

3.3
0

FY15

FY16*

FY17E* FY18E*

-5

Net profit margin -RS

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Page 5

Outlook and valuation

With better realisations in the south and improved outlook on the demand
side on verge of formation of new state, we expect utilisations to improve
from here on. Further, we expect cost rationalisation led by better fuel mix,
installation power plant in AP and improving efficiency of plants to drive
margins. In addition, with improving cash flow we expect debt to reduce
over the next two years. Further, the stock is trading at attractive valuation of
US$58/t. Considering this, we upgrade the stock from HOLD to BUY with a
revised target price of | 105 (i.e. EV/EBITDA of 6x and EV/tonne of US$62).
Exhibit 15: Key assumptions
| per tonne (Blended)

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16E

FY17E

Realisation

4362

4183

4605

4810

4904

5011

Total Expenditure

3579

3894

4106

3978

4060

4110

FY18E

Stock Adj

-19

-31

38

-11

Raw material

575

604

685

783

800

810

Power & fuel

1125

1249

1273

1247

1090

1110

Employee

332

350

349

393

380

380

Freight

954

1007

1046

1005

1050

1075

Others

489

691

741

718

720

720

EBITDA per Tonne

783

289

500

832

844

901

Source: ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 16: Valuations

FY15
FY16
FY17E
FY18E

Sales Growth
(| cr)
(%)
4418.8
-0.5
4226.9
-4.3
4508.8
6.7
4892.7
8.5

EPS
(|)
1.0
4.5
5.7
8.3

Growth
(%)
NA
368.7
26.5
47.0

PE
(x)
97.5
20.8
16.4
11.2

EV/EBITDA
(x)
9.0
7.5
6.8
5.7

EV/Tonne
(x)
66
63
61
58

RoNW
(%)
0.8
3.8
4.6
6.4

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Page 6

RoCE
(%)
6.1
8.5
8.8
10.3

Company snapshot
200
180
160
140
120

Target price: | 105

100
80
60
40
20
May-17

Feb-17

Nov-16

Aug-16

May-16

Feb-16

Nov-15

Aug-15

Feb-15

May-15

Nov-14

Aug-14

May-14

Feb-14

Nov-13

Aug-13

May-13

Feb-13

Nov-12

Aug-12

May-12

Feb-12

Nov-11

Aug-11

May-11

Feb-11

Nov-10

Aug-10

Feb-10

May-10

Nov-09

Aug-09

May-09

Source: Bloomberg, Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Key events
Date
Feb-09
Apr-09
Sep-09
Jan-10

Event
Completes and commences commercial production of 1 MT grinding plant at Parli (Maharashtra). The company's subsidiary, namely, Trishul Concrete Products Ltd
gets completed and commences commercial production of 1 lakh cubic metre ready mix concrete plant at Hyderabad (Andhra Pradesh)
The company upgrades capacity of kiln I to 3000 TPD (1700 TPD) at Vishnupuram
Announces plans to set up two 50 MW power plant in Shankar Nagar, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh with total capex of | 500 crore

Jun-10

ICL Financial Services (ICLFSL), the company's wholly-owned subsidiary, acquires 60.89% (including shares acquired under open offer) equity share capital in Indo
Zinc (IZL). Consequently, IZL became a subsidiary of ICLFSL and ultimate subsidiary of the company. The company set up PT. Coromandel Minerals Resources as
subsidiary in Indonesia for acquiring coal concessions
Completes upgradation of capacity at Chilamakur to 4500 tonnes per day

Jun-12

CCI fines company with penalty of | 187.5 crore on alleged cartelisation

Sep-12

COMPAT serves notice to CCI in cement cartelisation case

May-13

COMPAT directs cement companies to pay 10% penalty

Oct-13
Feb-15

Supreme Court bars company promoter N Srinivasan from taking charge as BCCI President till investigation gets completed in IPL probe
Company transfers IPL division into separate subsidiary company Chennai Super Kings Cricket (CSKC)

Feb-15

Trinetra Cement and Trishul Concrete Products amalgamated with India Cements

May-15

CARE downgrades India Cements' long term bank facilities from 'CARE A' to 'CARE A-' and short-term facilities from 'CARE A1' to 'CARE A2+'

Feb-16

CARE downgrades India Cements' long term bank facilities from 'CARE A-' to 'CARE BBB+' and short-term facilities from 'CARE A2+' to 'CARE A2'

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Top 10 Shareholders
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

Name
EWS Finance & Investments Ltd.
Prince Holdings Madras Pvt. Ltd.
Subramanian (Vidya)
Life Insurance Corporation of India
Trishul Investments Pvt. Ltd.
AfrAsia Capital Management Ltd
Anna Investments Pvt. Ltd.
The Boston Company Asset Management, LLC
Dimensional Fund Advisors, L.P.
Reliance Capital Asset Management Ltd.

Shareholding Pattern
Latest Filing Date % O/S Position (m) Change (m)
31-Mar-16
9.0
27.6
0.0
31-Mar-16
8.3
25.5
0.0
31-Mar-16
6.5
20.0
0.0
31-Mar-16
6.1
18.6
0.0
31-Mar-16
5.7
17.5
0.0
31-Mar-16
5.0
15.4
0.0
31-Mar-16
4.2
13.0
0.0
31-Mar-16
4.1
12.6
0.9
29-Feb-16
3.5
10.7
6.7
31-Mar-16
3.5
10.6
1.0

(in %)
Promoter
FII
DII
Others

Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16

28.23 28.23 28.23 28.56 28.63
31.80 27.65 21.91 27.86 26.24
13.55 13.47 14.82 14.13 16.60
26.42 30.65 35.04 29.45 28.53

Source: Reuters, ICICIdirect.com Research

Recent Activity
Buys
Investor name
Dimensional Fund Advisors, L.P.
Macquarie Investment Management Ltd.
Deutsche Bank AG
Norges Bank Investment Management (NBIM)
Reliance Capital Asset Management Ltd.

Value
6.49
6.54
5.19
2.35
1.30

Shares
6.66
4.47
3.98
1.60
1.00

Sells
Investor name
Damani (Radhakishan S)
HSBC Global Asset Management (Hong Kong) Limited
Birla Sun Life Asset Management Company Ltd.
Morgan Stanley Investment Management Inc. (US)
Citigroup Inc

Value
-3.53
-2.07
-1.05
-0.17
-0.19

Shares
-2.71
-1.54
-0.78
-0.14
-0.13

Source: Reuters, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Page 7

Financial summary
Profit and loss statement
(Year-end March)
Total operating Income

| Crore
FY15

FY16

FY17E

FY18E

4,418.8

4,226.9

4,508.8

4,892.7

-0.5

-4.3

6.7

8.5

Growth (%)

Cash flow statement

(Year-end March)
Profit after Tax
Add: Depreciation

| Crore
FY15

FY16

FY17E

FY18E

29.4

137.9

174.5

256.4

257.9

218.0

250.7

262.7

Raw material cost

658.7

668.7

725.0

779.6

(Inc)/dec in Current Assets

478.3

-96.2

-17.1

-113.8

Employee Expenses

318.2

340.4

344.4

365.7

Inc/(dec) in CL and Provisions

-629.1

124.8

79.4

116.4

1136.4

944.6

1005.9

1082.7

CF from operating activities

136.5

384.4

487.6

521.7

Freight cost

953.1

870.3

951.5

1034.6

(Inc)/dec in Investments

-639.7

0.5

0.0

0.0

Other Expenses

674.8

621.7

652.5

692.9

(Inc)/dec in Fixed Assets

329.8

-45.5

-250.0

-250.0

3,741.1

3,445.6

3,679.3

3,955.6

677.8

781.3

829.5

937.2

CF from investing activities

Issue/(Buy back) of Equity

Power, Oil & Fuel

Total Operating Exp.

EBITDA

Others

0.0

0.0

0.0

-200.0

-220.0

Dividend paid & dividend tax

0.0

-36.1

-36.1

-36.1

Inc/(dec) in Sec. premium

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Others

-287.6

-46.6

0.0

0.0

385.6

CF from financing activities

174.2

-369.0

-236.1

-256.1
15.6

6.2

13.0

218.0

250.7

262.7

Inc/(dec) in loan funds

Interest

419.6

370.4

344.4

316.9

29.1

22.2

28.0

28.0

0.0

14.7

0.0

0.0

29.4

200.4

262.4

Total Tax

0.0
-250.0

-286.3

15.3

257.9

PBT

0.0
-250.0

0.0

26.2

Depreciation

Exceptional items

29.2
-15.7

461.8

Growth (%)

Other Income

0.0
-309.9

0.0

62.5

87.9

129.2

Net Cash flow

0.8

-0.2

1.5

PAT

29.4

137.9

174.5

256.4

Opening Cash

3.1

3.9

3.7

5.2

Adjusted PAT

29.4

152.6

174.5

256.4

Closing Cash

3.9

3.7

5.2

20.8

-182.1

418.6

14.4

47.0

1.0

4.5

5.7

8.3

FY15

FY16

FY17E

FY15

FY16

FY17E

FY18E

1.0

4.5

5.7

8.3

Growth (%)
EPS (|)

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Balance sheet
(Year-end March)

| Crore
FY18E

Liabilities
Equity Capital

Key ratios
(Year-end March)
Per share data (|)

307.2

307.2

307.2

307.2

Reserve and Surplus

3,285.9

3,341.1

3,479.5

3,699.8

Cash EPS

Total Shareholders funds

3,593.1

3,648.3

3,786.7

4,007.0

BV

Total Debt

3,241.5

2,955.2

2,755.2

2,535.2

329.7

358.9

358.9

358.9

Deferred Tax Liability

Minority Interest / Others
Total Liabilities

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

7,164.3

6,962.5

6,900.8

6,901.2

Assets

Adjusted EPS

9.4

11.6

13.8

16.9

117.0

118.8

123.3

130.4

DPS

0.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Cash Per Share

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.7

15.3

18.5

18.4

19.2

0.7

3.3

3.9

5.2
46.0

Operating Ratios (%)

EBITDA Margin
PAT Margin

Gross Block

6,533.8

6,579.3

6,974.3

7,224.3

Inventory days

47.8

51.9

48.0

Less: Acc Depreciation

3,158.9

3,377.0

3,627.7

3,890.4

Debtor days

38.5

44.3

44.3

44.3

Net Block

3,374.9

3,202.3

3,346.6

3,333.9

Creditor days

89.9

99.9

99.9

99.9

300.0

300.0

155.0

155.0

Capital WIP

Return Ratios (%)

Total Fixed Assets

3,674.9

3,502.3

3,501.6

3,488.9

RoE

0.8

4.2

4.6

6.4

Investments

1,585.2

1,584.7

1,584.7

1,584.7

RoCE

6.3

8.4

8.8

10.2

6.1

8.5

8.6

10.0
11.2

Inventory

606.9

595.3

590.6

642.6

RoIC

Debtors

466.1

513.4

547.2

593.8

Valuation Ratios (x)

Loans and Advances

1,974.4

2,035.0

2,022.9

2,038.1

Other Current Assets

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Cash

3.9

3.7

5.2

20.8

P/E

97.5

20.8

16.4

EV / EBITDA

9.0

7.5

6.8

5.7

EV / Net Sales

1.4

1.4

1.2

1.1

Total Current Assets

3,051.3

3,147.3

3,165.9

3,295.3

Market Cap / Sales

0.6

0.7

0.6

0.6

Creditors

1,088.3

1,157.1

1,234.0

1,339.1

Price to Book Value

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.7

58.8

114.8

117.2

128.6

1,147.1

1,271.8

1,351.3

1,467.7

Debt/EBITDA

4.8

3.8

3.3

2.7
0.6

Provisions
Total Current Liabilities

Solvency Ratios

Net Current Assets

1,904.3

1,875.5

1,814.6

1,827.6

Debt / Equity

0.9

0.8

0.7

Application of Funds

7,164.3

6,962.5

6,900.9

6,901.2

Current Ratio

2.7

2.5

2.3

2.2

Quick Ratio

2.7

2.5

2.3

2.2

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Page 8

ICICIdirect.com coverage universe (Cement)

Company
ACC*
Ambuja Cement*
UltraTech Cem
Shree Cement
Heidelberg Cem
India Cement
JK Cement
JK Lakshmi Cem
Mangalam Cem
SFCL

CMP
(|)
1504
227
3238
13215
97
93
600
347
249
110

TP(|)
1550
236
3800
11300
105
105
486
405
310
135

Rating
Hold
Hold
Buy
Buy
Hold
Buy
Hold
Buy
Buy
Buy

EPS (|)
EV/EBITDA (x)
EV/Tonne ($)
RoCE (%)
RoE (%)
M Cap
(| Cr) FY16E FY17E FY18E FY16E FY17E FY18E FY16E FY17E FY18E FY16E FY17E FY18E FY16E FY17E FY18E
28,266 31.3 57.8 66.3
23.1
16.4
14.2
147
128
127
6.0 10.5 11.4
7.0 12.0 12.6
34,875
5.2
7.2
7.8
20.8
16.1
14.8
164
144
147
7.9 11.5 12.2
7.8 10.4 10.7
88,494 79.2 99.3 119.7
20.5
16.9
14.5
219
203
200 12.0 13.3 15.7 10.5 11.5 12.9
45,988 130.7 131.5 135.5
35.5
27.6
27.2
263
264
0
5.9
6.5
6.3
8.0
7.6
7.3
2,379
1.7
2.9
4.9
14.1
10.5
8.7
92
90
89
7.1 10.7 12.9
4.3
6.9 10.5
2,869
4.5
5.7
8.3
7.5
6.8
5.7
63
61
58
8.4
8.8 10.2
4.2
4.6
6.4
4,196
-1.3 41.7 47.1
18.9
9.6
7.3
85
99
81
4.9 14.0 14.1 -0.6 15.6 15.2
4,072
0.5
5.7 12.9
21.0
14.3
10.2
114
96
85
3.4
7.0 11.2
0.5
4.9 10.0
665
0.0 19.2 28.0
28.4
7.4
5.6
51
43
39
1.3 12.5 15.3
NA
9.7 12.5
2,420
4.1
6.4
8.9
8.0
6.2
5.0
169
167
126 12.0 16.0 19.1 12.3 16.3 19.0

*CY14E, CY15E, CY16E

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Page 9

RATING RATIONALE

ICICIdirect.com endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICIdirect.com assigns

ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorises them
as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional
target price is defined as the analysts' valuation for a stock.
Strong Buy: >15%/20% for large caps/midcaps, respectively, with high conviction;
Buy: >10%/15% for large caps/midcaps, respectively;
Hold: Up to +/-10%;
Sell: -10% or more;

Pankaj Pandey

Head Research

[email protected]

ICICIdirect.com Research Desk,

ICICI Securities Limited,
1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,
Road No. 7, MIDC,
Andheri (East)
Mumbai 400 093
[email protected]

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Page 10

ANALYST CERTIFICATION
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reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this
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Page 11