New Mega Trends in India
New Mega Trends in India
New Mega Trends in India
NE81-MT
NE81-MT
May 2015
1
Contents
Section
Slide Numbers
Executive Summary
27
34
42
55
62
71
80
83
87
94
101
111
117
Conclusion
128
Appendix
136
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Executive Summary
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Key Findings
While India will witness a high growth in population on one side, great progress will be witnessed in the
area of connectivity. It is anticipated that around 4 billion devices would be connected in 2025. This will
not only include mobile phones and tablets but also other connected devices, such as smart TVs.
Indias digital economy will explode with the proliferation of devices, and estimates for Indias Internet
economy (as measured by total ICT spending) to be $266 billion in 2020. The Internet economy will
account for nearly 7% of the countrys gross domestic product (GDP).
Online retail will emerge as one of the fastest growing industries in India, with a market potential of
$35.08 billion by 2025 that accounts for nearly 4% of total retail. This growth will compel many retailers
to move from a bricks model to a bricks and clicks model that amalgamates online channels with brick
and mortar stores.
India will emerge as a reliable and affordable satellite launch service provider and manufacturer for the
world. India can deliver a satellite in approximately 28 months, against the global average of 30 months.
By 2020, India will launch 76 satellites, 10 space missions, and 30 launch vehicles.
Mobile apps downloads in India will reach 10 billion apps by 2020. Key mobile-based industries such as
mobile banking and governance in India would benefit as a result, with a consolidated value of $9 billion
by 2020.
Source: Frost & Sullivan
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India's GDP will reach $3.4 trillion by 2020, but holds the potential to reach nearly $4 trillion if
investments and manufacturing growth are more aggressive than expected. In the aggressive growth
scenario, India could displace the UK and become the 5th largest economy by 2025 from its current
position as 10th.
India will gradually shift from a services-based economy to an industry-driven economy by 2025 with
increased contribution from industries and the manufacturing sector. Indias manufacturing sector, in
terms of gross value added to GDP (at the current growth rate), could reach $1,149 billion by 2022 and
contribute 25% to GDP.
Maharashtra would account for 15.8% of the country's total GDP, and the top 5 states will account for
45.7% of country's GDP in 2020.
India is expected to become one of the global leaders (top 5) in at least 10 big markets of the future. It
will be the 5th largest exporter in the globe and the largest manufacturer of chemicals. It will be also
become the largest consumer market for luxury goods and technology services, such as direct-to-home
TV and mobile apps.
10
India will become the 3rd largest automotive market by 2025, with nearly 7 million car sales during the
period. It will become the major manufacturing hub for cars in Asia with the likes of Hyundai expanding
manufacturing in India. Three out of 10 two-wheelers will be an electric vehicle.
Source: Frost & Sullivan
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11
Around 38% of the total population (534.8 million) of India will be living in urban regions in 2025 and
cities will account for 80% of India's GDP in 2030. States like Delhi, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh,
Karnataka, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, West Bengal, and Gujrat will have urbanization rates over
30%.
12
India will have 3 Mega Cities and 4 Mega Regions by 2025, each with populations over 15 million, and
21 sustainable cities by 2025. A Mega City will have a minimum population of 8 million and will
contribute a GDP of $250 billion in 2025. Indias Mega Cities include Mumbai, Kolkata, and Delhi.
13
India will witness the development of smart cities this decade as the country embarks on an ambitious
plan to upgrade urban infrastructure. An estimated investment of $216 billion will be pumped into Indias
basic urban infrastructure to 2020, of which the government has stipulated close to $1.2 billion for smart
city investment.
14
With a planned 100 smarter cities in India, each of the 29 states in India will have at least 2 smart cities.
Three will be completed by 2019 along Indias most ambitious infrastructure project, the Delhi-Mumbai
Industrial Corridor.
15
India is expected to invest an estimated $1.2 trillion in total infrastructure (urban and rural) by 2017.
Private investment will constitute about 50% of the investment, most of which will be deployed on public
private partnership (PPP) basis. Transport infrastructure would account for a third of the investment.
Source: Frost & Sullivan
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16
India's Gen Y constitutes a third of the country's population and will join the working-age group, forming
67% of the working-age population by 2025. This will create the need for an additional 320 million jobs
in India by 2020.
17
India will emerge as the largest consumer class of the future, with middle class individuals accounting
for 66% of India's population (895 million) in 2020 and the lower middle class emerging as the biggest
middle class segment at 38%.
18
Frugal Innovation will become Indias key value proposition in manufacturing offering Value For Many.
Frugal Innovation business models have already yielded low-cost alternatives in simple goods like
tablets (Akash) to complex goods such as satellites (Mangalyaan cost 11% less than US and Chinese
satellites).
19
As India grows its stance as an industrial and knowledge economy, energy demand will grow to
1,509 mtoe in 2030; this is double the current demand. India will need to import nearly 1/3rd of its
demand in 2030. India will also turn to renewable sources and their generation could become a
formalized part of the grid.
20
Indias growth story to 2020 will also put pressure on its physical resources with significant gaps
expected in both food and water. Indias ground water is depleting at a fast rate of 25% and by 2025
could face water stress with a supply gap of 100 trillion litres.
Source: Frost & Sullivan
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Devices
Data
Connections
4 billion connected
devices by 2025
10 exabytes monthly
traffic by 2020
38 exabytes a month
mobile data traffic by
2020
310 million 3G
broadband connections
by 2025
93%
Private
Economy
India GDP
$3.8 trillion
Internet
Economy*
$266 billion
Enterprise
Economy
Public
Economy
7%
55%
37%
mBanking
Size =
$500 Million
Size =
$5$6
Billion
mBanking in
India could cover
142 million
people by 2020
who are currently
unbanked and
dont have
access to
financial
services.
mHealth has
shown to reduce
default rates in
treatments to
almost 1% in
diseases such as
tuberculosis in
India.
mGovernance
mCommerce
mEntertainment
Size =
$1.0$1.5
Billion
Size = $1.3
Billion
Size =
$3.6$4.0
Million
mGovernance
facility will help a
large rural
population, as it
does not require
a PC or
knowledge of
English, which is
the case,
opposed to
eGovernance.
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3.4
2.6
Current
Trajectory
1.9
2011
2014
2017
2011
3.8
2.0
2014
2017
Manufacturing
(% of GDP)
17.0%
Investment
(% of GDP)
40.0%
Manufacturing
(% of GDP)
25.0%
2020
2.9
1.9
34.8%
2.0
10%
Accelerated
Trajectory
Investment
(% of GDP)
2020
11
2020: Current
2020: Accelerated
United States
United States
United States
China
China
China
Japan
Japan
Japan
Germany
Germany
France
United
United Kingdom
Germany
5th
India
India
United Kingdom
Brazil
France
France
Russia
Brazil
Brazil
Italy
Russia
Russia
10th India
Italy
Italy
6th
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12
3,500
Industrial production at a 2
year high
Production manufacturing
index and measures of
business and consumer
confidence increase
25
20
2,500
15
2,000
10
1,500
5
Revised Outlook
0
(5)
GDP
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2001
2000
2003
500
0
Strong Economy
2011
1,000
2002
GDP (Billion)
3,000
(10)
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13
Rank
Market
Region
Smartphones
Global
Direct-to-Home (DTH)
Global
All Exports
Global
Automotive
Global
Retail
Global
Luxury
Asia
Steel
Global
Defense
Global
Chemicals
Global
Equity Market
Global
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14
Urban
Non-urban
$216
Billion
10%
20%
Total
Infrastructure
Investment =
$1.17 Trillion
$954
Billion
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Half a percent
($1.2 billion) of
total urban
infrastructure
investment
needed will be
for smart
cities funded
by the public
sector.
Smart Cities
0.5%
($1.2 Billion)
Water Supply
Waste
Management
Urban Roads
$18 billion
$27 billion
$95 billion
Traffic
Management
Renewal and
Development
$5 billion
$23 billion
Street
Lighting
$1 billion
Mass Transit
$25 billion
Others
$23 billion
Source: World Bank; High Powered Expert Committee of the Government of India (HPEC);
Planning Commission; Ministry of Urban Development; Frost & Sullivan
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15
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
148
172
201
231
272
Total
Infrastructure
Planned Outlay
$1.02 trillion
(20132017)
Roads and
Bridges
154
16%
Railways
123
12%
Ports
41
4%
Airports
20
2%
Telecom
174
17%
Others*
512
50%
16
Online
$977
Billion
Top Segments
Non-online
$35.08
Billion
$490
Billion
Consumer Electronics
12.28
35%
Computer Hardware
8.77
25%
Apparel
7.02
20%
Books
4.21
12%
Jewelry/Luxury
Goods/Accessories
1.75
5%
Others*
1.05
3%
$942
Billion
$2 Billion
$488
Billion
2012
Percent of
2025 Sales Total Online
($ Billion) Retail Market
2025
Total
$35.08
100%
Key: Excludes B2B, C2C and Online Travel, Classifieds, and Banking.
*Others include categories such as flowers, gifts, greetings, home, and garden.
Source: Vizisense; Accel Partners; Internet and Mobile Association of India; Comscore; Frost & Sullivan
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17
2020
0.3%
(4)
Super
Rich
1%
(14)
0.3%
(4)
Rich
1%
(14)
0.4%
(5)
Affluent
3%
(41)
2%
(25)
Upper Middle
Class
9%
(122)
16%
(198)
Middle Class
22%
(298)
34%
(420)
Lower Middle
Class
38%
(515)
17%
(210)
Poor
6%
(81)
30%
(371)
Below
Poverty
Line
Re 10,000,000 ($220,000)
Re 5,000,000 ($110,000)
Re 2,000,000 ($44,000)
Re 1,000,000 ($22,000)
Re 340,000 ($7,500)
Re 150,000 ($3,200)
Re 70,000 ($1,116)
<Re. 70,000 ($1,116)
Poverty
Line
20%
(271)
Source: National Council for Applied Economic Research (NCAER); Frost & Sullivan
18
2012
Age
2025
1,236 Million
Individuals
1,418 Million
Individuals
64 and above
34-64
15-34
0-14
Female
Male
Female
Male
19
Aging India
Indias aging population is expected to account for nearly 7% of its population by 2025.
1,600,000.00
Elderly care
1,200,000.00
1,000,000.00
eHealth
800,000.00
600,000.00
400,000.00
200,000.00
0.00
Above 64
35-64
15-34
0-14
2012
62,673.82
364,574.77
436,301.54
373,136.61
2025
102,252.72
490,689.47
468,249.02
357,552.99
Year
*Note: The population pyramid is based on the assumption that India will
continue its current one-child-per-family birth control policies.
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Leisure
Senior tourism
Elderly education
Life insurance
Healthcare equipment for
the elderly
Products
Population (Million)
1,400,000.00
Healthcare
Mega City
City with a minimum population of 8 million and a GDP of
$250 billion in 2025 (13 Mega Cities in 2011 and 25 Mega
Cities in 2025)
Example:
Mega Regions
Example:
Greater Mumbai
Mega Corridors
Example:
Rurban Towns
Villages upgraded to town status with at least 400 people
per square feet and 75% workforce migrated to jobs other
than agriculture
Example:
Gill, Punjab
Mega Slums
1 million urban poor live in an area measuring just 1.5
square miles
Example:
Dharavi, Mumbai
Image source: Dreamstime
Source: Frost & Sullivan
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21
Key:
Mega Cities in 2025
Punjab
52.50%
Delhi 98.8%
28.5 million
Haryana
46.31%
Ahmadabad
7.56 million
Kanpur
4.6 million
Jaipur
4.29 million
Madhya Pradesh
34.80%
Gujarat
53.04%
Surat
5.70 million
Mumbai 25.8
million
Pune
6.79 million
Maharashtra
61.01%
Karnataka
49.29%
Bangalore
9.57 million
Kolkata
20.1 million
Telengana
30.02%
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Urbanization
Rate
Contribution to
Countrys Urban
Population in 2025
Highly
Urban States
>30%
69%
Medium
Urban States
2530%
24%
Low Urban
States
<25%
7%
Hyderabad
9.09 million
Andhra
Pradesh
29.1%
Chennai
9.9 million
Tamil Nadu
74.78%
West Bengal
35.13%
24%
1,600
25%
1,508
Industrial
1,400
Primary Energy Demand (MTOE)
Others**
Commercial
*Others
1,200
10%
Residential
Nuclear
1,000
800
600
41%
Renewables
Hydro
691
Gas
30%
Liquids
400
Imports
Coal
Domestic
Capacity
200
0
70%
2010
2030
*Others include Agriculture/irrigation and government sector.
**Others include Waste and biomass.
Source: IEA; MOP; TERI; Planning Commission; Frost & Sullivan
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23
Percent Renewable
Installed Capacity,
India, 2010
12%
17%
Renewables
Solar
10,000 MW
Wind
15,000 MW
Small Hydro
2,100 MW
Biomass
2,900 MW
Total
30,000 MW
2010
Renewables
Solar
16,000 MW
Wind
11,000 MW
Small Hydro
1,500 MW
Biomass
2,000 MW
Total
30,500 MW
2017
Source: IEA; MOP;TERI; Planning Commission; Frost & Sullivan
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24
181
16%
64
2011
Market Nature
Fragmented
Market Penetration
Rate
Medium
Market Stage
Growth
2018F
Healthcare market growth driven by rapidly growing population, rising income levels, increased
insurance penetration and an increased prevalence of lifestyle-related diseases.
6.5 physicians
per 10,000
population
compared to
global average
of 14.2
Over 40,000
hospitals in
India
9 beds per
10,000 people
as compared
to global
average of 29
beds
Source: Frost & Sullivan
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25
Unknown
Solutions
Technology Innovation
Wild Innovation
Mobility Integration
Dynamic Parking
ADAS Features
Known
Solutions
Improvement
Application Innovation
Micro Cars
Car Sharing
Electric Bikes
Car Pooling
Bike Sharing
Met Needs
Unmet Needs
Source: Frost & Sullivan
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26
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27
Research Scope
Study Period
20122025
20152025
Forecast Period
(Short Term: 20152016, Mid Term: 20172018, Long Term: 20192025)
Geographical Scope
Industries Covered
India
28
Aims
The objective of the study is to identify and understand the Mega Trend smart is the new green that will
impact and shape the countrys economy, society, and culture. For the purpose of this study, smart is the
new green is categorized into smart cities and sustainable cities.
Objectives
To define and understand the concept of Mega Trend
To identify the Mega Trends expected to have the biggest impact on India
To identify and analyse the market structure of such Mega Trends
To analyse region-wise opportunities of investment in various sectors
To assess the impact of the key Mega Trends and sub-trends, based on the degree of importance and
certainty over the next decade
To carry out a macro-to-micro analysis to understand the unmet needs or inherent business
opportunities in relevant industries
Source: Frost & Sullivan
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29
Research Background
In addition to specific trends in urbanization, this research study also contains and captures content from
various other regional and global studies on Mega Trends.
P5DB-MT Mega Trends in India: Macro to Micro Implications of Mega Trends to 2020Completed
(February 2012)
M818-39 African Mega Trends: A Bright Vision for the 'Growing' ContinentCompleted (May 2012)
NAFD-MT Mega Trends in Latin America: A Future Outlook for the 'Next-Generation'Completed
(Dec 2012)
M847-MT Evolving Mega Trends To Transform Turkey into a Developed EconomyCompleted
(Jan 2013)
P6E3-MT Mega Trends in Indonesia: Macro to Micro Implications of Mega Trends to 2025Upcoming
M82C-MT Worlds Top Global Mega Trends To 2020 and Implications to Business, Society and
Cultures (2012 Edition)Upcoming
M75C-MT City as a Customer - Identifying Growth Opportunities in Cities of TomorrowCompleted
(April 2013)
M85D-MT Mega Trends in China: Macro to Micro Implications of Mega Trends to 2025Completed
(Jan 2013)
This study is also supplemented by our ongoing and continuous interaction with industry experts, industry
participants, partners, and in-house industry analysts.
Source: Frost & Sullivan
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30
Macro
Identify Sub-trend
Through Scenario-building Exercises
Through a collective 200-day scenario-building
exercise in which a global team used data
extracted from secondary and primary
sources, unique sub-trends were identified
with implications for society, the market, and
other key sectors.
Image source: Dreamstime
Source: Frost & Sullivan
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31
Micro
4
Opportunities Analysis
Opportunities in key industries were analyzed,
and suggestions for products and solutions
were generated.
32
Term
Definition
Mega City
City with a population of over 8 million and a GDP of $250 billion or more
Mega Regions
Cities grow and merge to become Mega Regions, with populations of over 15 million
Mega Corridors
Sustainable Cities
Cities built on a green initiative, from buildings to transport, governance, city planning, energy, and
technology; these cities are either upgraded or built from scratch
Satellite Town
Town designed to house the overspill population of a major city, but located well beyond the limits of
that city, operating as a discrete, self-contained entity
Net Worth/Wealth
eGovernance
Use of ICT by various sectors of the government, including both delivery of services and interaction
with citizens for announcements and notifications
mGovernance
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33
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34
Devices
Data
Connections
4 billion connected
devices by 2025
10 exabytes monthly
traffic by 2020
38 exabytes a month
mobile data traffic by
2020
310 million 3G
broadband connections
by 2025
35
93%
Private
Economy
India GDP
$3.8 trillion
Internet
Economy*
$266 billion
Enterprise
Economy
Public
Economy
7%
55%
37%
36
2013
2020
India Leads
Mobile apps
downloads in
popular mobile
stores
#3 in Google Play
X ~20
X
~35 apps
per device
apps per
device
#1 in Nokia OVI
~44 million
smartphones
~500 million
smartphones
37
mBanking
Size = $500
million
Size = $5
$6 billion
mBanking in
India could cover
142 million
people by 2020
who are currently
unbanked and
dont have
access to
financial
services.
mHealth has
shown to reduce
default rates in
treatments to
almost 1% in
diseases such as
tuberculosis in
India.
mGovernance
mCommerce
mEntertainment
Size =
$1.0$1.5
billion
Size = $1.3
billion
Size = $3.6
$4.0 million
mGovernance
facility will help a
large rural
population, as it
does not require
a PC or
knowledge of
English, which is
the case,
opposed to
eGovernance.
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Space Jam
India will launch 76 satellites, 9 space missions, and 30 launch vehicles by 2025.
Plan Features
INSAT 3D
2011
SRE-II
2012
Mars Orbiter,
2015
Asteroid/Comet
Flyby 2017
IRNSS-1 to 7
20122014
Chandrayan-2
Plan Checkpoints
Approved $3.3
2019 will see all
billion for
of the 200,000
National Optic
gram
ASTROSTAT
Aditya-1, Solar
Fiber Network
panchayats
2012
Coronagraph,
2013
project
connected
GAGAN
(Satellite Navigation)
250,000 gram
panchayats
with optic fiber
networks
As of 2013
As of 2025
Geo-Stationary Satellites
30
40
Earth Observation Satellites
26
23
Navigation Satellite
1
5
Experimental/Small Satellites
10
8
Space Missions
4
9
Launch Vehicles
26 =
28
Space Centers & Units
18
18
200 gram
panchayats will
have Wi-Fi
hotspots
GSATs
6, 7, 9, 11, & 14
2
20112013
1
2015 =
Cover
50,000
GMPs
GSLV, Mk-II
2013
2013
2016 =
Cover
100,000
GMPs
2019 =
Cover
100,000
GMPs
2025
39
Mobile
2.8
Enter the
Zettabyte
Era
2013
2025
35%
55%
2013
2025
75%
45%
Wired
1.25
0.12
2013
2017
2020
2025
Source: IDCEMC Study; Ericsson; Cisco; Frost & Sullivan
40
4%
Manufacturing
4%
100%
90%
84%
80%
Percent
70%
Telecom
22%
60%
50%
17%
BFSI
17%
40%
30%
20%
10%
Cross Vertical/Multi
Vertical
12%
35%
0%
2011
2013
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
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41
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42
Online
$977
Billion
Top Segments
Non-online
$35.08
Billion
$490
Billion
$942
Billion
$2 Billion
$488
Billion
Consumer Electronics
12.28
35%
Computer Hardware
8.77
25%
Apparel
7.02
20%
Books
4.21
12%
Jewelry/Luxury
Goods/Accessories
1.75
5%
Others*
1.05
3%
Total
2012
Percent of
2025 Sales Total Online
($ Billion) Retail Market
$35.08
100%
2025
Key: Excludes B2B, C2C and Online Travel, Classifieds, and Banking.
*Others include categories such as flowers, gifts, greetings, home, and garden.
Source: Vizisense; Accel Partners; Internet and Mobile Association of India; Comscore; Frost & Sullivan
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43
Reach
(%)
Amazon Sites
6,805
14.7
3,426
7.4
Samsung Group
2,759
5.9
Flipkart.com
2,675
5.8
Homeshop18.com
2,286
4.9
Naaptol.com
2,145
4.6
Bookmyshow.com
2,125
4.6
Myntra.com
2,110
4.5
Priceindia.in
2,047
4.4
Alibaba.com Corporation
1,973
4.3
Total Retail
28,351
61.1
46,390
100.0
10
Online retailers in India are rapidly expanding to Tier II and Tier III markets, offering payment methods
such as Cash on Delivery options to the unbanked online consumer in non-metropolitan areas.
*Visitors Age 15+ Home/Work Locations
Source: comScore; Media Metrix; Frost & Sullivan
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44
Payment Methods*
Entry Points1
Cash/CoD continues to
dominate as security concerns
on online transactions run high
among Indian online
consumers
Female
Male
55+
MasterCard
45-54
Visa
35-44
Direct Debit
25-34
All Others
15-24
Cash on
Delivery
*Note:
Social Media
Search
Engines
**Others
Survey month and year, July 2014; survey respondents: 5,800 individuals above 15 years.
50%
50%
Online
Payments
Maximum
25%
Cash on
Delivery
Online
Payments
75%
46
Bricks (pre-2000)
Department
Stores
Supermarkets
Hypermarkets
Online
Mobile
Payments
Mobile Apps
Virtual
Stores
Interactive
Stores
Hyper Online
Markets
47
10
D
8
Degree of Clicks
Click n Collect
6
5
Social
Commerce
Mobile
Commerce
3
Smaller Stores
2
1
Low
0
Low
Degree of Bricks
Note: The retailing formats have been plotted based on the degree of bricks and clicks involved in making the sale.
We have used both quantitative and qualitative reasoning to measure the degree of impact.
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10
High
Source: Frost & Sullivan
48
Valuation
Value of
Goods Sold
$1.6 billion
$10 billion
$3 billion
$1 billion
$2 billion
$1 billion
$2 billion
(investment)
Not known
$1 billion
Groupon
$50 million
$100 million
$1 billion
$48 million
$200 million
Not known
Naaptol
$32 million
Not known
Not known
Online Retailer
Flipkart
(as of November 2014)
Snapdeal
Amazon India
49
Big-box
Small-box
15%20%
Smaller
Shoppers
Stop
Shoppers Stop shrunk 5 of its 15
HyperCity stores larger than 80,000
square feet by more than half.
Spencers
More
NE81-MT
50
Location-based Services
Foursquare
India
SHOPPERS STOP
SHOPPERS STOP
US
Augmented Reality
Shoppers Stop
India
Body Scanners
Selfridges
UK UK
Holography
Diesel
Motion Sensing
Tesco Store Trek
US
US
QR Coding
Gitanjali
Jewellers
US
Image source: Dreamstime
Source: Frost & Sullivan
NE81-MT
51
Social
Merchandising
Subscription
Commerce
E.g., enMarkit
Collaborative
Consumption
E.g., Olx
Group Buying
Social Shops
E.g., Snapdeal
E.g., Facebook
Source: Frost & Sullivan
NE81-MT
52
Audi IndiaNumber 1
Social Brand
Sentiment Analysis
Sentiment Analysis
Facebook Analysis
6%
23%
Neutral
2%
22%
97%
Likes
Shares
Positive
Comments
Negative
4%
Neutral
Shares
Positive
71%
2%
6%
Likes
1%
Facebook Analysis
Comments
Negative
72%
94%
Audi has the largest social media community with around 3.3 million Facebook likes, but currently the
growth rate is slow (1.4%) as compared to BMW India, which is growing at a rate of 3% each year and has
a social media community with around 2.7 million likes.
Source: Simplify 360; Frost & Sullivan
NE81-MT
53
Amazon
Fortune
Group
Shoppers
Stop
Click and
Collect
Pioneers
of India
54
NE81-MT
55
Substantial
Working
Population
Gen Y
Geo
Socialization
Middle
Bulge
Sheconomy
Ageing
Population
Citizens Sans
Boundaries
Generational
Political
Shift
56
2020
0.3%
(4)
Super
Rich
1%
(14)
0.3%
(4)
Rich
1%
(14)
0.4%
(5)
Affluent
3%
(41)
2%
(25)
Upper Middle
Class
9%
(122)
16%
(198)
Middle Class
22%
(298)
34%
(420)
Lower Middle
Class
38%
(515)
17%
(210)
Poor
6%
(81)
30%
(371)
Below
Poverty
Line
Re 10,000,000 ($220,000)
Re 5,000,000 ($110,000)
Re 2,000,000 ($44,000)
Re 1,000,000 ($22,000)
Re 340,000 ($7,500)
Re 150,000 ($3,200)
Re 70,000 ($1,116)
<Re. 70,000 ($1,116)
Poverty
Line
20%
(271)
Source: National Council for Applied Economic Research (NCAER); Frost & Sullivan
57
Wealth Pyramid
There will be over one million HNWIs in India (wealth over $1.5 million) and over 6,000 UHNWIs
(wealth over $50 million) by 2020.
Wealth Pyramid, India, 2010 and 2020
2013
2020
Over $1
billion
25
150
$500$1,000
million
35
187
$100$500
million
410
2,196
$50$100
million
350
3,589
$10$50
million
7,800
43,367
$5$10
million
12,700
680,082
$1$5
million
650,000
882,543
UHNWI: Ultra High Net Worth Individualabove net worth of $50 million
HNWI: High Net Worth Individualnet worth of $1$50 million
NE81-MT
UHNWIs
(8,222)
HNWIs
(1.8 million)
2012
2025
1,236 million
Individuals
1,418 million
Individuals
64 and above
34-64
15-34
0-14
Female
Male
Female
Male
NE81-MT
59
Aging India
Indias aging population is expected to account for nearly 7% of its population by 2025.
1,400,000.00
1,200,000.00
Elderly care
1,000,000.00
eHealth
800,000.00
600,000.00
200,000.00
0.00
Above 64
35-64
15-34
0-14
2025
102,252.72
490,689.47
468,249.02
357,552.99
Year
*Note: The population pyramid is based on the assumption that India will
continue its current one-child-per-family birth control policies.
NE81-MT
Leisure
Senior tourism
400,000.00
Elderly education
Life insurance
Healthcare equipment for
the elderly
Products
Population (Million)
1,600,000.00
Healthcare
4%
11%
Average Household
Size
8%
2
3 to 5
6 to 8
28%
9 and
above
49%
6%
4%
6.0
5.3
5.5
5.5
5.3
4.8
5.0
4.0
3.1
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
1971
1981
1991
2001
2011
2021
Rural
60%
Urban
40%
25%
Men
55%
3 to 5
Women
45%
6 to 8
9 and
above
55%
Married
70%
Single
30%
61
NE81-MT
62
3.4
2.6
Current
Trajectory
1.9
2011
2014
2017
2011
Manufacturing
(% of GDP)
17.0%
Investment
(% of GDP)
40.0%
Manufacturing
(% of GDP)
25.0%
2020
3.8
2.9
1.9
34.8%
2.0
10%
Accelerated
Trajectory
Investment
(% of GDP)
2.0
2014
2017
2020
Note: GDP figures are in $ Trillion.
Source: International Monetary Fund; The Hindu; Business Line; Frost & Sullivan
NE81-MT
63
2020: Current
2020: Accelerated
United States
United States
United States
China
China
China
Japan
Japan
Japan
Germany
Germany
France
United
United Kingdom
Germany
5th
India
India
United Kingdom
Brazil
France
France
Russia
Brazil
Brazil
Italy
Russia
Russia
10th India
Italy
Italy
6th
NE81-MT
64
2020
17%
32%
41%
Agriculture
Agriculture
Services
Services
Industries
Industries
39%
51%
35%
Industries
7%
Industries
Agriculture
5%
Agriculture
10
20
30
Percent
40
50
27%
20%
7%
0
10
20
30
Percent
40
50
Source: World Bank (World Development Indicators); Planning Commission of India; Frost & Sullivan
NE81-MT
65
Stable
NE81-MT
Delhi
2010$60.54 billion
2020$170.93 billion
Rajasthan
2010$66.91 billion
2020$192.53 billion
Gujarat
2010$120.71 billion
2020$345.31 billion
Increasing
10
Uttar Pradesh
2010$128.92 billion
2020$351.61 billion
Madhya Pradesh
2010$60.54 billion
2020$160.2 billion
Maharashtra
2010$257.85 billion
2020$726.01 billion
Karnataka
2010$93.02 billion
2020$275.70 billion
Kerala
2010$65.74 billion
2020$189.88 billion
West Bengal
2010$106.07 billion
2020$311.95 billion
Tamil Nadu
2010$127.30 billion
2020$346.91 billion
Note: The figures denote GDP at market prices.
Arrows denote movement in ranking in 2020 compared to 2010.
Source: Planning Commission of India; International Monetary Fund; Frost & Sullivan
66
Manufacturing GVA
($ Billion)
1,400
1,149
1,200
884
1,000
310
403
$2 per
hour
200
0
$1 per
hour
China
Minimum Wages
Percent Contribution to GDP,
20132022
Contribution to GDP
30%
25%
22%
25%
15% 16%
17%
19%
15%
5,00,000
per year
China
600,000
per year
India
201320152017201820192022
20%
524
600
400
680
800
India
Engineering Graduates
Currency Advantage
Rupees value against the dollar (as
compared to china) is much more
attractive
$0.16
25
35
24
32
29
China
10%
$0.01
5%
0%
2013 2015 2017 2018 2019 2022
India
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Figures are in $billion
Source: NIC; Frost & Sullivan
NE81-MT
67
Frugal Engineering
Focus on Logistics
Infrastructure
Examples
Engineering
Goods
120
Auto Components
25
50 100 150
Billion $
$800 ECG
Average Price:
$2,000
Freight Time
Logistics Costs
0%
20%
40%
20% 40% 60%
Percent
Improvement in logistics
infrastructure could increase net
sales of key manufacturing industries
by nearly 3% to 4% through
reduction in expensive logistics
costs.
Source: Frost & Sullivan
NE81-MT
68
3,500
Industrial production at a 2
year high
Production manufacturing
index and measures of
business and consumer
confidence increase
25
20
2,500
15
2,000
10
1,500
5
Revised Outlook
0
(5)
GDP
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2001
2000
2003
500
0
Strong Economy
2011
1,000
2002
GDP (Billion)
3,000
(10)
NE81-MT
69
Rank
Market
Region
Smartphones
Global
Direct-to-Home (DTH)
Global
All Exports
Global
Automotive
Global
Retail
Global
Luxury
Asia
Steel
Global
Defense
Global
Chemicals
Global
Equity Market
Global
NE81-MT
70
NE81-MT
71
Mega City
City with a minimum population of 8 million and a GDP of
$250 billion in 2025 (13 Mega Cities in 2011 and 25 Mega
Cities in 2025)
Example:
Mega Regions
Example:
Greater Mumbai
Mega Corridors
Example:
Rurban Towns
Villages upgraded to town status with at least 400 people
per square feet and 75% workforce migrated to jobs other
than agriculture
Example:
Gill, Punjab
Mega Slums
1 million urban poor live in an area measuring just 1.5
square miles
Example:
Dharavi, Mumbai
Image source: Dreamstime
Source: Frost & Sullivan
NE81-MT
72
Key:
Mega Cities in 2025
Punjab
52.50%
Delhi 98.8%
28.5 million
Haryana
46.31%
Ahmadabad
7.56 million
Kanpur
4.6 million
Jaipur
4.29 million
Madhya Pradesh
34.80%
Gujarat
53.04%
Surat
5.70 million
Mumbai 25.8
million
Pune
6.79 million
Maharashtra
61.01%
Karnataka
49.29%
Bangalore
9.57 million
Kolkata
20.1 million
Telengana
30.02%
NE81-MT
Urbanization
Rate
Contribution to
Countrys Urban
Population in 2025
Highly
Urban States
>30%
69%
Medium
Urban States
2530%
24%
Low Urban
States
<25%
7%
Hyderabad
9.09 million
Andhra
Pradesh
29.1%
Chennai
9.9 million
Tamil Nadu
74.78%
West Bengal
35.13%
Ahmedabad,
Gandhinagar
7.8 Million
Mumbai, Bhiwandi,
Kalyan, Thane,
Ulhasnagar
34.4 Million
Kolkata, Howrah
21.6 Million
Hyderabad, Secunderabad
9.14 Million
Pune, PimpriChinchwad
14 Million
Chennai,
Kanchipuram,
Pondicherry
15 Million
74
Mega Connection
India will see 8 Mega Corridors by 2021.
Delhi-Chandigarh
(Not avaiable)
Delhi-Dehradun
(Not avaiable)
Amritsar-Jalandhar
(Not avaiable)
Delhi-Jaipur
(Not avaiable)
Guwahati-Jorhat
(Not avaiable)
Lucknow-Kanpur
(Not avaiable)
Mehsana-Valsa (48)
Jamnagar-Bhuj (4)
Ahmedabad- Junagarh
(6)
Bhavnagar-Porbandar (4)
Kolkata to Cuttack
(Not avaiable)
Mumbai-Ahmedabad (58)
Mumbai-Nagpur (26)
Hyderabad-Hindupur (29.1)
Pune-Jalgaon (7.6)
Srikakulum-Nellore (25.3)
Bangalore-Belgaum
(38.5)
Chennai-Hosur (30.4)
Mangalore-Karwar
Chennai- Karaikudi (4.9)
Mysore-Kolar (8.6)
Coimbatore-Krishnagiri (13.4)
Population greater than 25 million
Population less than 25 million
NE81-MT
Key Highlights
Dadri-Noida-Ghaziabad
Investment Region, UP
$90 Billion
The estimated funding from Japanese and
Indian and government on a 50:50 basis
Manesar-Bawal Investment
Region, Harayana
Delhi
1,483 km
Road length and 1,500 km rail link of DMIC
supported by financial and technical aid
from Japan
Delhi-Mumbai
Industrial Corridor
Khushkera-BhiwadiNeemrana Investment
Region, Rajasthan
Maharashtra Dighi
Port Industrial Area
Belgaum and Hubli
Industrial Areas,
Karnataka
Special Investment Region
(SIR), Dharwad, Karnataka
National Investment and
Manufacturing Zone (NIMZ),
Tumkur, Karnataka
State Capital
NE81-MT
Mumbai
Mumbai-Bangalore-Chennai
Industrial Corridor
Chennai
Bangalore
Sriperambudur,
industrial area, Tamil
Nadu
Business Hub,
Chittoor, Andhra
Pradesh
2,391 km
Road length and 805 km rail link being
jointly developed by DIPP and the Japan
International Cooperation Agency (JICA)
4 states that are being integrated are Tamil
Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and
Maharashtra.
3 new industrial and Business Hubs
Chittoor, Dharwad and Tumkur
Rurban Population
Growth
30%
Satellite
Towns
E.g., Pikhuwa
City Population
Growth
15%
Potential
Mega City
E.g., Kanpur
Key Indicators
Facts
Rs. 1,50,0003,60,000
40%
35%
40%
Large Cities
25%
Rurban Towns
25%
Villages
50%
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
*Includes Statutory and Census towns with less than 500,000 population.
Source: Frost & Sullivan
NE81-MT
77
Percent
80%
60%
50%
74%
65%
Very Large Villages
20%
40%
14%
20%
0%
10%
16%
0%
1971
18%
3%
1991
27%
Mega Cities
3%
2011
Villages still vastly outnumber towns in India (Census 2011 estimated 8,000 urban centres, including
rurban towns, in a sea of 660,000 villages).
Since 1951, the proportion of rural India living in medium to small villages and hamlets (of fewer than
2,000 people) has decreased from 74% to an estimated 50% today.
The percentage of Indians living in large villages (more than 5,000 people) jumped from 10% to 20%.
Not all of these villages qualify as rurban towns, but most of them mimic urban living.
Source: Frost & Sullivan
NE81-MT
78
$650 million
annual
turnover
Over 1
million in
population
5,000
businesses
and 15,000
factories
Per capita
income:
$500-$2,000
per year
79
NE81-MT
80
Urban
Non-urban
$216
Billion
10%
20%
Total
Infrastructure
Investment =
$1.17 Trillion
$954
Billion
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Half a percent
($1.2 billion) of
total urban
infrastructure
investment
needed will be
for smart
cities funded
by the public
sector.
Smart Cities
0.5%
($1.2 Billion)
Water Supply
Waste
Management
Urban Roads
$18 billion
$27 billion
$95 billion
Traffic
Management
Renewal and
Development
$5 billion
$23 billion
Street
Lighting
$1 billion
Mass Transit
$25 billion
Others
$23 billion
Source: World Bank; High Powered Expert Committee of the Government of India (HPEC);
Planning Commission; Ministry of Urban Development; Frost & Sullivan
NE81-MT
81
Rajasthan
(7)
Gujarat
(7)
New
Delhi
(3)
Uttar Pradesh
(6)
Maharashtra
(3)
Karnataka
(7)
Kerala
(7)
NE81-MT
Total Budget
Funding
Mechanism
Early Entrants
Impact on
Economy
Total Smart
Cities
Andhra Pradesh
(2)
Tamil Nadu
(3)
NE81-MT
83
Cutting edge IT
Zero Defects
Zero Accidents
Carbon Neutral City
Greener transport
NE81-MT
84
85
Zero
Emissions
Carbon Neutral
Cities
Macro-to-micro
Implications of
Innovating to Zero
Zero Deaths
in Accidents
Zero Carbon
Manufacturing
NE81-MT
86
NE81-MT
87
Personalization and
Customization
E.g., Nike and BMW
Co-creation
E.g., Quirky.com
Quirky.com
Pay as you go
PAYD* and PHYD**
Car Insurance
One-off Experience
E.g., BMW on Demand
Free
Premium
Group Buying
Freemium
SharingWhat is Yours is
Mine (P2P Business
Models)
Will Replace
Affordable Healthcare
Affordable Products
Micro Finance
89
Godrej Chotu-Kool
Unique
Marketing
Proposition
2
Low
Maintenance
The 6
Dimensions
3
Lifestyle
Proposition
5
Unique
Consumer
Low Price
4
Multiple
Applications
Launch Date
2009
Key Facts
Operations
NE81-MT
90
Sustainable
Funding
Unique Health
Care Delivery
Model
Low Price
2
Low
Economies of
Scale
The 6
Dimensions
3
High
Productivity
4
Local
Manufacturing
Launch Date
1976
Key Facts
Operations
NE81-MT
91
XV, E
B, B0
Gamma,
Delta 3
HD,
HD
Global C,
Global C
33
SR1,
C-EVO
PF1,
BVH1
Vista,
Ace
PL2,
PL2
30
Total Number of Platforms
B,
Basic
32
2010
30
25
W,
MRA
27 27
2020
27
23
20
18
15
14
15
9
10
13
9
13
12
9
9
6
9
7
Geely Group
Daimler Group
BMW Group
Tata Group
PSA Group
Fiat-Chrysler Group
Ford Group
Hyundai Group
General Motors
Group
Renault-Nissan
Group
Toyota Group
Volkswagen Group
Business models to
revolve around clicks;
increase in percentage of
consumer-initiated
business and well as
virtual transactions and
payments, resulting in the
creation of new consumerfunded business models;
multimodal selling
platforms; online C2C
transactions
Eco-innovation; more
models such as pay-asyou-go for car sharing,
bike sharing, and
insurance
New Selling
Platforms
Lower Price
Points
New business
models in the
United States
will promote
more peer-topeer and datadriven models
for innovation.
Green
Growth
Innovative
Marketing
Aggressive and
structural cost
reduction,
ultra low-cost cars
- Consumers to become
brand ambassadors and
advocates for social
media; reduced corporate
spending on conventional
market surveys;
popularization of new
research approachesfor
example, research on
consumers social media
behavior
Source: Frost & Sullivan
NE81-MT
93
NE81-MT
94
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
148
172
201
231
272
Total
Infrastructure
Planned Outlay
$1.02 trillion
(20132017)
Roads and
Bridges
154
16%
Railways
123
12%
Ports
41
4%
Airports
20
2%
Telecom
174
17%
Others*
512
50%
95
32%
$165
billion
*Others
148
17%
17
51%
Government Funding
Expected Private Funding
Gap
Size
$2.0 billion
IIFCL
$1.0 billion
IDFC
$1.5 billion
$2.0 billon
Source: Asian Development Bank South Asia Working Paper
Series (September 2014); Frost & Sullivan
96
1 Satellite
Township
26 Satellite
Townships
More than 6
Satellite
Townships
Metro Transit
System
Bus Rapid
Transit System
Source: Ministry of Urban Planning of India; Frost & Sullivan
NE81-MT
97
Diamond Quadrilateral
(GQ) Project
(high speed rail)
Delhi
Delhi
Ludhiana
Ahmedabad
Kolkata
Dankuni
Kolkata
Mumbai
Mumbai
Mumbai
Chennai
Chennai
Kochi
Largest high speed rail project
connecting 4 metros
Faster logistics, industrial, and job
development
98
Kolkata
Mumbai
Focus Areas
2013
20112020
Passenger Traffic
160 million
421 million
Cargo Traffic
New Aircrafts
$80 billion
Airport Infrastructure
$30 billion
Chennai
99
Okha
Bhavanagar
Varavai
Surat
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Ratnagiri
Panaji
Karwar
Cozhikode
Key Features
Alaphuzha
Nagapattanam
Karaikal
Ennore
13 Machilipattanam
2 3
Paradip
(9.8)
Vishakhapatnam
13 14
(11.9)
Ennore
5
6
7
New Mangalore
(5.5)
Cochin
(3.1)
Note: Figures in parentheses
indicate share of port traffic.
NE81-MT
Haldia
(8.3)
Content 12
8
11
9
(10.7)
Chennai
(10.8)
10
Tuticorin
(4.5)
Additional Capacity
(Million Tonnes)
14 Kakinada
Kandla (8.3) 1
1,200
699
1,020
485
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
2010-2012
2012-2017
2017-2020
Metro
Non Metro
Source: Ports Association of India; Maritime Agenda 2020; Frost & Sullivan
100
NE81-MT
101
24%
1,600
25%
1,508
Industrial
1,400
Primary Energy Demand (MTOE)
Others**
Commercial
*Others
1,200
10%
Residential
Nuclear
1,000
800
600
41%
Renewables
Hydro
691
Gas
30%
Liquids
Imports
400
Coal
Domestic
Capacity
200
0
2010
2030
70%
*Others include Agriculture/irrigation and government sector.
**Others include Waste and biomass.
Source: IEA; MOP; TERI; Planning Commission; Frost & Sullivan
NE81-MT
102
200
185.8
Production of Crude Oil
171.7
180
Imports of Crude Oil
159.3
163.6
160
132.8
140
121.7
111.5
120
100
80
90.0
74.3
78.7
95.7 99.5
82.5
60
40
32.1 32.1 32.7 32.7 33.8 32.1 33.8 33.8 33.8 33.8
20
Year
Source:Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas; Frost & Sullivan
NE81-MT
103
Power plants
getting priority
allocation of
domestic CNG
10,000 MW
capacity of power
plants lying idle
because of nonavailability of gas
600
500
625
Deficit
442
Imports
400
358
227
250
307
272
300
250
248
180
130
200
100
713
63
101
0
2012-2013
72
103
2013-2014
Demand
700
Availability of
auto CNG a
challenge
81
111
2014-2015
Domestic
Supply
100
121
2015-2016
157
2016-2017
172
2019-2020
212
2025-2026
231
2029-2030
Indias natural gas market has been in a supply deficit, primarily due to low domestic production and
inadequate transmission and distribution infrastructure.
*Million metric standard cubic meter per day.
Source: Gas Authority of India Limited; Frost & Sullivan
NE81-MT
104
Fact
GAIL
GSPL
Srinagar
RTGIL
(Scrapped)
Routing Centre
Bhatind
a
Jodhpur
Guwahati
Bhilwara
Vijaypur
Gaya
Jagdishpur
Udaipur
Bhopal
Mehsana
Howrah
Ahmedabad
Haldia
Hazira
Paradip
Implication
Dahej
Malavaram/
Kakinada
Goa
Bangalore
Mangalore
Chennai
Salem
Tuticorin
Kochi
NE81-MT
Pipeline under
legal dispute
Fuel Prices
There is little to differentiate between CNG and diesel by 2014 due to price revision in CNG prices, which
might lead to CNG being unattractive in existing markets.
New Delhi Fuel Prices, India, 2013 and 2014
80
($1.15)
72.40
($1.21)
76.00
70
($0.83)
52.54
60
($0.83)
58.00
($0.90)
57.00
($0.72)
45.60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Petrol
Diesel
2013
CNG
2014
It has been assumed that that quantum of increase in diesel prices will be higher after elections and would reach
58 due to government endeavour to reduce under recoveries on diesel.
The LPG price remains stable due to market pricing and global market outlook for LPG.
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106
Percent Renewable
Installed Capacity,
India, 2010
12%
17%
Renewables
Solar
10,000 MW
Wind
15,000 MW
Small Hydro
2,100 MW
Biomass
2,900 MW
Total
30,000 MW
2010
Renewables
Solar
16,000 MW
Wind
11,000 MW
Small Hydro
1,500 MW
Biomass
2,000 MW
Total
30,500 MW
2017
Source: IEA; MOP; TERI; Planning Commission; Frost & Sullivan
NE81-MT
107
108
Growth of water
management techniques
include micro-irrigation, rain
water harvesting, and water
shed management
$176 billion investments in
irrigation and waste-water
treatment projects by 2017
and beyond
Source: IDFC; CMIE; MoWR; Grail Research; Planning Commission; Frost & Sullivan
NE81-MT
109
Supply
Demand
110
NE81-MT
111
181
16%
64
2011
Market Nature
Fragmented
Market Penetration
Rate
Medium
Market Stage
Growth
2018F
Healthcare market growth driven by rapidly growing population, rising income levels, increased
insurance penetration and an increased prevalence of lifestyle-related diseases.
6.5 physicians
per 10,000
population
compared to
global average
of 14.2
Over 40,000
hospitals in
India
9 beds per
10,000 people
as compared
to global
average of 29
beds
Source: Frost & Sullivan
NE81-MT
112
Healthcare
Delivery
Services
Medical
Imaging
Medium
Low
Patient
Monitoring
Implants and
Consumables
Pharmaceuticals
IVD
Low-cost
Hospitals
Single
Specialty
Chains
Day Care
Centers
Telemedicine
Wellness
Centers
Medical
Tourism
Health
Insurance
Healthcare
Information
Technology
High
NE81-MT
Market growth
is fueled by
increase in the
population,
changing
disease profile
and increasing
disposable
income from
2011 to 2018
1,000.0
800.0
600.0
400.0
200.0
0.0
Other Revenue
Software Licensing Revenue
2011
228.8
76.3
2012
286.0
95.3
2013
357.5
119.2
2014
446.9
149.0
2015
558.6
186.2
2016
698.2
232.8
2017
872.8
291.0
2018
1,090.0
363.8
Year
Note: Software licensing includes hardware application licensing but does not cover system applications.
Source: Frost & Sullivan
NE81-MT
114
CDSS
Low
High
1
CIS
RIS/PACS Low
LIS
Low
TeleLow
medicine
EMR
Low
1
High
High
5
High
5
Low
High
5
High Low
5
High
High Low
5
Low
Low
High Low
5
High
Low
Low
High Low
5
High
Low
Low
High
High Low
5
Low
High
High
High Low
5
High
Low
Low
High
Low
High
1
High
High
1
High
1
Low
Low
High
1
High
2
Low
Low
1
HIS
100-250 Beds
50-100 Beds
Low
High
High Low
5
High
Cost
Benefit
Time
Benefit
Resource
Utilization
Flexibility
Scalability
Other
Benefits
Narayana
Hrudayalaya
WIPRO
IMI Mobile
Max Healthcare
Shell Lubricants
J&K Government
Dr. Reddys Lab
AICTE
KPIT Cummins
Redbus
Flipkart
IndiaMart
Source: Frost & Sullivan
NE81-MT
116
NE81-MT
117
Ride Sharing
eHail
Zoomcar
Ola
Myles
Trip Da
MyGaadi.com
Carzonrent India
ZingHopper
Uber
Micro Mobility
Solutions
Bajaj RE60
Quadricycles
118
Opportunities
Low-car ownership rates
Limited parking for private vehicles
Insufficient public transport
Challenges
Car Sharing
and Pooling
Zoom, a self-driving car
sharing company in India,
is currently the second
largest club in the
developing world with 100
cars in fleet and over 7,000
active users
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119
Opportunities
Crowded trains and metros
Cheaper alternative to trains
Community-based system alleviate safety concerns
Ride Sharing
Bla Bla car ride
sharing service
launched in India in
2015 has started
offering the global
community service in
Delhi
Challenges
120
121
Opportunities
Easy bookings from any location through mobile phone or Web
sites
Easy payment options (online banking, mobile banking)
eHail
Challenges
Inconsistent Pricing: (E.g., Surge pricing or primetime pricing)
Lack of government mandates and clarity in organizational system
122
QuadricyclesReplacing Autos
Opportunities
Safer alternative to autos; carrying minimum of 3 passengers
Intra-city movements only
Micro Mobility
Solutions
Challenges
Bajaj RE60, one of
the first to be
debuted and piloted
in India
123
8.00
7.54
7.00
6.00
5.26
4.75
5.00
4.25
3.76
4.00
3.27
3.00
2.55
2.68
2.62
2.51
2.80
2.09
2.00
1.57
1.00
0.00
FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015f FY2016f FY2017f FY2018f FY2019f FY2020f FY2025f
NE81-MT
China
20.1
US
8.5
India
5.3
Japan
3.7
Brazil
3.6
Russia
3.2
Germany
3.2
UK
2.5
France
2.2
Italy
2.1
125
Luxury
market
High Cost:
>20 Lakhs
3%
Premium sedans
and SUVs
20%
37%
(21 models)
Middle to
Premium:
10-20 Lakhs
Characters
Competent with
features
High value for money
High volume
Good space
Low to
Middle:
5-10
Lakhs
Low Price:
0-5 Lakhs
30%
^Number of models are rounded and may not be accurate.
*Prices ex-showroom Delhi.
Source: Frost & Sullivan
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126
Volume Share
High Cost:
>20 Lakhs
10%
Luxury
market
35%
Customer shift
from hatchback
to SUVs and
sedans
30%
Characters
Loaded with features
Premium
Sedans
and SUVs
Middle to
Premium:
10-20 Lakhs
Low to Middle:
5-10 Lakhs
Low Price:
0-5 Lakhs
25%
^Number of models are rounded and may not be accurate.
*Prices ex-showroom Delhi.
Source: Frost & Sullivan
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127
Conclusion
NE81-MT
128
Macro
Micro
Analysis of
Opportunities
and Unmet
Needs
Mega Trend
Selected trends that
impact businesses and
markets
Impact on
Future Product/
Technology
Sub Trend
A sub-layer of trends that
has a wide ranging impact
Impact to Industry
Visualising the roadmap of
these critical forces through
scenario-building and macro
economic forecasts
129
High
The Middle
Bulge
Generation Y
She-conomy
Future Infrastructure
Smart Cities
Innovating
to Zero
Space
Jam
Health, Wellness,
and Well-Being
Connectivity
and the Internet
Economy
Future Energy
Power Generation
Low
eMobility
Low
Degree of Certainty
Note: The size of the bubble represents the scale of opportunity within each Mega Trend.
These Mega Trends have been plotted based on quantitative and qualitative reasoning.
NE81-MT
High
Source: Frost & Sullivan
130
Mega Trend
Impact on Cities/Economy
Macro
Urbanization
Impact on Business
Micro
She-conomy
Exorbitance to be replaced by
smart choices, such as public
transport
131
Impact on Cities/Economy
Macro
Impact on Business
Micro
Middle Bulge
Wealth
Watchers
Economy
Space Jam
132
Impact on Cities/Economy
Macro
Connectivity and
Data Traffic
Impact on Business
Micro
E-mobility
Infrastructure
Development
133
Impact on Cities/Economy
Macro
Impact on Business
Micro
Energy
NE81-MT
134
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Source: Frost & Sullivan
NE81-MT
135
Appendix
NE81-MT
136
Urban
Rural
Average
Re 5,947
Annual
Re 71,364
Percent of People
Below Poverty Line
Total Population
Number of
Number of
People Under
Households Under
BPL
BPL
2012
29.5% (Rangarajan
expert panel
72,600,000 (divided by
1,219,000,000
363,000,000
estimate)1
Calculation
of BPL1
size 5)
Percent of People
2020
Total Population
Number of
Number of
People Under
Households Under
BPL
BPL
20.5% (estimated
based on historical
average households
57,359,000 (divided by
1,399,000,000
286,000,000
averages)
average household
size of 5)
1Based
137
Identifying the
Number of People
Identifying the
Number of People
Poor
Identifying the
Number of People
Affluent,
Rich, and
Highly
Rich
Middle and
Upper
Middle Class
Identifying the
Income Bracket
Identifying the
Number of People
Identifying the
Income Bracket
Identifying the
Income Bracket
Identifying the
Income Bracket
Source: National Council for Applied Economic Research (NCAER); Frost & Sullivan
NE81-MT
138
139
Number
States
Population
(Million)
Hyderabad-Ananthpur-Hindupur
Andhra Pradesh
29.1
Hyderabad-Vijaywada
Andhra Pradesh
10.3
Hyderabad-Nizamabad-Adilabad
Andhra Pradesh
2.8
Srikakulum-Vishakhapatnam-Kakinada-Guntur-Nellore
(Coastal Corridor)
Andhra Pradesh
25.3
Mumbai-Thane-Ahmedabad
Maharashtra
58
Mumbai-Nasik-Dhule-Amravati-Nagpur
Maharashtra
26
Pune-Ahmadnagar-Aurangabad-Jalgaon
Maharashtra
7.6
Bangalore-Belgaum
Karnataka
38.5
Mysore-Bangalore-Kola
Karnataka
8.6
10
Karnataka
3.9
Source: Population Foundation of India; Planning Commission of India; Frost & Sullivan
NE81-MT
140
Number
States
Population
(Million)
11
Mehsana-Gandhinagar-Ahmedabad-Vadodara-BharuchSurat-Valsa
Gujarat
48
12
Ahmedabad-Rajkot-Junagarhsa
Gujarat
13
Bhavnagar-Porbandar
Gujarat
14
Jamnagar-Morvi-Gandhidham-Bhu
Gujarat
15
Chennai-Krishnagiri-Hosu
Tamil Nadu
30.4
16
Coimbatore-Erode-Salem-Krishnagiri
Tamil Nadu
13.4
17
Chennai-Cuddalore-Tanjavur-Karaikud
Tamil Nadu
4.9
18
Tuticorin-Nagarcoil
Tamil Nadu
2.8
19
203.6
Source: Population Foundation of India; Planning Commission of India; Frost & Sullivan
NE81-MT
141
NE81-MT
143
Units
17,500
15,000
12,500
10,000
7,500
5,000
2,500
0
PHEV
CEV
NEV
2009
810
2010
100
1,665
2011
900
8,220
NEV
2012
2,250
10,200
Year
CEV
2013
20
4,800
10,680
2014
30
8,300
12,100
PHEV
NEVs hold the majority share in 2009 and 2010 because Reva is the only company present in India.
CEVs such as Tara Tiny, Tata Indica Electric, and Mahindra Reva are expected to be launched in 2011.
Toyota Prius, a PHEV, is expected to be launched in 2014.
Source: Frost & Sullivan
NE81-MT
144
Introduction
Early Electric
Vehicle
Adopters:
Reva
2012
Growth
Threats due to
Competitive
Technologies:
All vehicle manufacturers in
India launching CNG
variants of existing models
2020
Maturity
2040
Decline 2050
The Indian electric vehicle market is at the nascent stage and will shift to the growth phase; it is expected to be
mature around 2025.
Source: Frost & Sullivan
NE81-MT
145