JDA Demand - Focus 2012
JDA Demand - Focus 2012
JDA Demand - Focus 2012
Demand Management
The Problem
The Solution
Demand Management
Solution Suite
Components
Business Objectives
Demand
Demand Manager
Demand Decomposition
Demand Planner
Demand Classification
Profiler
Market Manager
Key Capabilities
This document contains forwardlooking statements based on current expectations, forecasts and assumptions
of the Company that involve risks and uncertainties. Forward looking statements are subject to risks and
uncertainties associated with the Company's business that could cause actual results to vary materially from
those stated or implied by such forward-looking statements.
Copyright 2012 JDA Software Group,
Inc. - CONFIDENTIAL
2010
JDA Software
Demand Management:
One View of Synchronized Demand
S&OP
Historical
Sales
Information
Replenishment &
Allocation
Space & Category
Management
Sales History
Lost Sales
Demand
Management
Consensus
Forecast
Workforce
Management
Pricing / Promo
Effects
Trade Promotions
Management
Causal Factors
Trend
Merchandise
Planning
Seasonality
Internal / External
Collaboration
Transportation
Management
Where do I start?
The way you replenish is not necessarily the
same way you should forecast.
Product
Market
Market
Channel
Region
Channel
Region
Product
Channel
Region
20 oz. Cola
Convenience
Stores
New York
Consumer Goods
12 oz. Cola
Superstores
South East
MassMerch Retail
Laundry
Detergent
Retail
Store 123
Power Drills
Internet
West Region
DFU Examples
Channel
Consumer Goods
12 oz. Cola
Superstores
South East
Convenience
Stores
20 oz. Cola
FourierOrder
LewandowskiShipments
New York
MassMerch Retail
Laundry
Detergent
Retail
Power Drills
Store 123
Internet
MLRPOS
West Region
MLRShipments
Region
Model
Model
represents a
combination of
history and
statistical
algorithm
Multi-level Forecasting
Process
Organizes your DFUs into a manageable
structure
Synchronizes data among multiple levels
through aggregation and reconciliation models
Facilitates the inclusion of business knowledge
into the forecasting process
Multi-level Forecasting
Channel
Product
Category
Class
Sub Class
SKU
Furniture
Storage
Chairs
High Back
10001
Filing
Low Back
10002
Region
Multi-level Forecasting
Region
Product
Channel
All
All Channels
Market/Distribution Channels
Retail
Catalog
Internet
Multi-level Forecasting
Product
Channel
Region
All
All Warehouses
Ship From Warehouse (e.g. North America)
DC1
DC2
NY
DC3
Bos
Channel
Department
Channel
Region
Country
Category
Store Cluster
Class
Store
Item
Each defined DFU level can generate its own statistical forecast
based upon aggregated sales history.
Aggregation Model
JDA Demand
Granular level
16
JDA Demand
Granular level
17
History Cleansing
History
Calculate
Model using
forecasting method
Evaluate Forecast
Performance
Manage
Exceptions
Manage
Additional
Information
Draft Forecast
Amount of history
Unit of measure
Send to other
processes
Publish Forecast
Consensus
Forecasting
Demand Decomposition
Separate Base from Promo History
Key Actions
Business Impacts
Demand Management
Process
Calculate
Model using
forecasting method
Evaluate Forecast
Performance
Manage
Exceptions
Manage
Additional
Information
Draft Forecast
Publish Forecast
Send to other
processes
Forecasting Methods
Regression Based Algorithms
Fourier assumes that business is constant or that it changes at a constant
rate
Multiple Linear Regression first develops a profile assuming constant
business, then develops the model further through the use of multiple causal
variables.
Other
Short Lifecycle utilizes attribute based mapping to extract existing lifecycle
curves and apply them to new DFUS
Copyright 2012 JDA Software Group, Inc. - CONFIDENTIAL
Demand Classification
Assignments by Class
Review Percent of
DFUs Per Class
Demand Classification
Assignments by Algorithm
Review
Recommended
Algorithms for DFUs
Demand Management
Process
Calculate
Model using
forecasting method
Fine-tune suggested
parameter settings where
appropriate
Evaluate Forecast
Performance
Manage
Exceptions
Draft Forecast
Send to other
processes
Publish Forecast
Forecasting
Demand Workbench
Configurable Panels
Graphical Hierarchy
Navigation
Configurable Panels
New Product
Introduction: create new
Define &
Prioritize DFU
Attributes
Define the DFU
attributes that will most
likely represent similar
traits for new DFUS.
Build Short
lifecycle
curves
Builds and stores
curves for selected
DFU groupings.
Assign Short
Lifecycle
Curves
Adjust the forecast
based on the
history and tuning
parameters.
Adapt Forecast
Demand Management
Process
Calculate
Model using
forecasting method
Review modeling
exceptions
Tune parameters
Evaluate Forecast
Performance
Manage
Exceptions
Manage
Additional
Information
Draft Forecast
Publish Forecast
Send to other
processes
Regenerate
forecasts
Forecasting
Exception Graphs
Demand Management
Process
Calculate
Model using
forecasting method
Competitive Information
Forecast Overrides
Cannibalization
Evaluate Forecast
Performance
Manage
Exceptions
Manage
Additional
Information
Draft Forecast
Publish Forecast
Send to other
processes
Consensus
Forecasting
Promotional Lift
Baseline Statistical Forecast
Forecast Overrides
Apply incremental overrides to individual forecasts or flexible groupings of
forecasts
Market Activities
One View of Demand
Promotion lift incorporated
directly into the forecast
Forecast Reconciliation
Tops-Down / Bottoms Up
View Percentage
Contribution
Total of selected
DFUS
Fulfillment
Enterprise Planning
Evaluate Forecast
Performance
Manage
Exceptions
Draft Forecast
Publish Forecast
Send to other
processes
Calculate
Model using
forecasting method
Regenerate updated
forecast based upon added
history
Evaluate Forecast
Performance
Manage
Exceptions
Manage
Additional
Information
Draft Forecast
Publish Forecast
Send to other
processes
Forecast Performance
Average Forecast
Error
Plan
Production
Purchase
Materials
Schedule
Production
60%
50%
40%
30%
Item/
Location
20%
10%
Total Item
All Locations
0%
DFU
Item Family
Sale
Benefits of Measuring
Forecast Performance
Provides a benchmark for continuous improvement of
the forecasting process.
Allows forecasters to manage by exceptions.
Measures the accuracy of both the base statistical
forecast and the adjustments. Are my adjustments
working?
What gets measured gets better!
Forecasting
Forecast Performance Analysis
How is my accuracy tracking?
Is it improving over time?
Total History
Total Forecast
Total Error
Thank you.
Please remember to submit your survey.
FAR001