Dynamic Macro Basic Macro Frameworks Summer 2016 1
Dynamic Macro Basic Macro Frameworks Summer 2016 1
Dynamic Macro Basic Macro Frameworks Summer 2016 1
Mausumi Das
July-August, 2016
Z
U0h = u cth exp t
dt; > 0,
t =0
u c1h u c2h
U0h ' u c0h + + + .........
1+ (1 + )2
Suppose an agent lives for sure in the rst period of his life (when he
is born); but at every subsequent period he faces a constant
probablility of dealth, denoted by 1 p. Thus his survival probability
in any period (contingent on the fact that he has survived in all the
previous periods) is p.
This implies the the conditional probability of his surviving upto
period t > 0 is: (p )t
If the agent is alive in any time period t, then he can enjoy utility
from consumption at that point of time, given by u (ct ). But if he
dies then he gets zero utility.
1
Without any loss of generality, replace p by and we shall get
1+
back the innite horizon utility function as had been dened earlier.
We now discuss the continuous time R-C-K model for the central
planner, referred to as the optimal growthproblem.
It is assumed that there exists an omniscient, omnipotent,
benevolent social planner who wants to maximise the citizens
welfare.
Since all households are identical, the objective function of the social
planner is identical to that of the households:
Z
t
U0 = u (ct ) exp dt. (1)
t =0
Ct + It = Yt = F (Kt , Nt ).
ZT
W = F (ut , xt , t ) dt (2)
t =0
subject to
dx
= g (ut , xt , t ); ut 2 U; x0 given.
(i)
dt
Here ut is called the control variable; xt is called the state variable; F
represents the instantaneous payo function, or the felicity function.
(i) species the evolution of the state variable as a function of the
state and control variables.
It is called the equation of motion or the state transition equation.
Das (Delhi School of Economics) Dynamic Macro July-August, 2016 14 / 90
Optimal Control (Contd.):
such that
1 H is maximized with respect to u at ut for all t 2 [0, T ] ;
H d
2 = ;
x (u ,x ,,t ) dt
t t
H dx
3 = ;
(u ,x ,,t ) dt
t t
4 T = 0
xT = x.
H
H is maximixed with respect to ct ) = 0 for all t; (i)
ct
2 H
verify: 2 < 0
ct
H d
= ; (ii)
kt dt
H dk
= ; (iii)
t dt
FONC (i):
H
= 0 ) u 0 (ct ) = t for all t
ct
implies that the marginal utility from consumption at every point of
time must be equal to the shadow price of capital (i.e., the
incremental utility associated with a unit increase in capital stock).
FONC (ii):
H d 1 d
= + t ) f 0 (kt ) n + =
kt dt t dt
H dk dk
= ) = f (kt ) ( + n)kt ct
t dt dt
denotes the per capita budget constraint of the social planner.
Finally, the Transversality Condition:
t
lim t exp kt = 0
t !
implies that at the terminal time
if the shadow price of capital is positive, no capital stock should be left
unused (unconsumed) and the economy must end up with zero capital
stock (T > 0 ) kT = 0);
on the other hand, if some capital stock is indeed left unused then it
must be the case that the corresponding shadow price is zero (i.e.,
consuming further generates no utility value) (kT > 0 ) T = 0).
Needless to say in this innite horizon problem, the above conditions
hold in a limiting sense.
Das (Delhi School of Economics) Dynamic Macro July-August, 2016 26 / 90
Interpretation of the Current Value Hamiltonian Function:
The Current-value Hamiltonian Function:
H t = u (ct ) + [f (kt ) ( + n )kt
t ct ]
measures the utility valuation of the per capita GDP at any point of
time t.
Note that the per capita output at any time period f (kt ) can be used
for two purposes: to be enjoyed as consumption (ct ) and to augment
dk
the capital stock .
dt
The part that is consumed generates direct utility given by u (ct ) .
That part that is used for investment generates potential future
consumption and associated with an utility valuation of t .
Thus the Current Value Hamiltonian measures the direct as well as
the indirect utility associated with the per capita output at any time
period t.
The Hamitonian (or the Present-value Hamiltonian), Ht , measures
the present discounted utility value of the per capita output at time t.
Das (Delhi School of Economics) Dynamic Macro July-August, 2016 27 / 90
R-C-K Model (Centralized Version): Characterization of
the Optimal Path
To summarise, the optimal trajectories of ct , kt and t must satisfy
the following set of equations at every point of time t:
u 0 ( ct ) = t ; (i)
1 d
= f 0 (kt ) n ; (ii)
t dt
dk
= f (kt ) ( + n)kt ct ; (iii)
dt
t
lim t exp kt = 0. (iv)
t !
We also know:
dk
= f (kt ) ( + n)kt ct . (iii)
dt
Equations (iii) & (v) represent a 2 2 system of dierential equations
which along with the Transversality Condition characterize the
optimal path of the economy under the centralized R-C-K model.
Das (Delhi School of Economics) Dynamic Macro July-August, 2016 29 / 90
Intertemporal Elasticity of Substitution:
ct u 00 (ct )
( ct ) .
u 0 ( ct )
dc ct
= f 0 (kt ) n ; (v)
dt ( ct )
and
dk
= f (kt ) ( + n)kt ct . (iii)
dt
Both (iii) and (v) are non-linear dierential equations; so we have to
use phase diagram technique to qualitatively characterize the optimal
path.
ct
f 0 (kt ) n = 0;
( ct )
f (kt ) ( + n )kt ct = 0.
Notice that (ct ) > 0. Hence from the above equations we can
identify three possbile steady states of the system:
Trivial steady state : c = 0; k = 0;
Semi-trivial steady state : c = 0; k = k such that f (k ) = + n;
Non-trivial steady state: c = c > 0; k = k > 0 such that
0
f (k ) = + n + ; c = f (k ) ( + n )k .
Das (Delhi School of Economics) Dynamic Macro July-August, 2016 33 / 90
R-C-K Model (Centralized Version): Constrcution of the
Phase Diagram
From equation (v):
dc
T 0 according as
dt
either ct = 0 or f 0 (kt ) T + n + .
On the other hand, from equation (iii):
dk
T 0 according as
dt
ct S f (kt ) ( + n )kt .
dc dk
Now we can trace the level curves = 0 and = 0 in the (kt , ct )
dt dt
plane and draw the coresponding directional arrows to get the
corresponding phase diagram.
(How should the Phase Diagram look?)
Das (Delhi School of Economics) Dynamic Macro July-August, 2016 34 / 90
R-C-K Model (Centralized Version): Phase Diagram
Also noting that along the optimal path, t = u 0 (ct ), we can write
the TVC as:
TVC: lim u 0 (ct ) exp t kt = 0. (iv0)
t !
dk
= f (kt ) ( + n)kt ct .
dt
Therefore,
Zt
kt = k0 + [ f (k ) ( + n )k c ] d .
0
Hence
Z
lim kt = k0 + [ f (k ) ( + n )k c ] d = M.
t !
0
Z
[ c f f (k ) ( + n)k g] d = k0 M N (a nite constant).
0
We now argue that along any trajectory of type II, the integral
dened by the LHS above will diverge away to + and therefore can
never converge to nite constant N.
(Prove this yourself. Hint: A necessary condition for an innite
R da
integral I a d to converge is that < 0. Dene
0 d
a [c ff (k ) ( + n )k g] here and show that along any
trajectory of type II this necessary condition is violated.)
Hence there is a contradiction.
Das (Delhi School of Economics) Dynamic Macro July-August, 2016 43 / 90
Proof that Trajectories of Type II cannot be Optimal:
(Contd.)
We have just proved that any trajectory belonging to category II
cannot be asymptotic to the vertical axis; it must hit the
vertical axis within a nite period of time.
Now take any such trajectory. Can it still be optimal?
The answer is "No".
The reason is as follows:
Suppose the trajectory hits the vertical axis precisely at time T .
then exactly at time T , kt reaches zero;
Consequently, ct falls from a nite value to zero (since a positive value
of consumption cannot be sustained with zero capital stock);
This implies that precisely at time T , t jumps from a nite value to
innity.
Such a discrete jump of t violates FONC (ii) - which presupposes
continuity of t .
Hence trajectories of type II cannot be optimal.
Das (Delhi School of Economics) Dynamic Macro July-August, 2016 44 / 90
R-C-K Model (Continuous Time): Identication of the
Optimal Trajectory
We have now seen that trejectories belonging to either category I or
category II cannot be optimal because they violate one of the FONCs
(i)-(iv).
That leaves the unique trajectory beloging to category III, which is
the stable arm of the saddle point (k , c ) and represented by the line
SS 0 in the diagram.
Along this trajectory, as t ! , ct and kt approach c and k
respectively.
It is easy to verify that this trajectory satises all the four FONCs,
including the Transversality Condition.
Hence this is the unique optimal trajectory for the social planners
problem.
Thus, given k0 , it is optimal for the social planner to choose the
corresponding c0 that lies on trajectory III and then let the economy
evolve according to the two dynamic equations (iii) & (v).
Das (Delhi School of Economics) Dynamic Macro July-August, 2016 45 / 90
R-C-K Model (Continuous Time): Growth Implications
Notice that in order to solve this problem the households would have
to have some expectation about the entire time paths of wt and rt .
We shall assume that householdshave perfect foresight. So they
can correctly guess all the future values of the market wage rate and
rental rate, even though they do not know the exact values of these
variables.
To put it dierently, in their optimization exercise, the households will
treat wt and rt as exogenous, but since their guesses are always
correct, in the solution to the householdsoptimal path,we can plug
back the actual values of wt and rt .
Corresponding FONCs:
H
H is maximixed with respect to cth ) = 0 for all t
cth
i.e., u 0 cth exp t
= t (i)
H d
=
kth dt
d
i.e., = t [ rt n ] (ii)
dt
H dkth
=
t dt
dah
i.e., t = wt + rt kth (n + )kth cth (iii)
dt
dcth cth
= [rt n ] (1)
dt (cth )
dkth
= wt + rt kth (n + )kth cth (2)
dt
When the households are identical, we can directly replace kth and cth
in equations (1) and (2) by kt and ct respectively.
Thus,
dct ct
= [rt n ] (10 )
dt ( ct )
dkt
= wt + rkt (n + )kt ct (20 )
dt
Finally noting that in a competitive market economy:
wt = f (kt ) kt f 0 (kt ) and rt = f 0 (kt ), we get dynamics of average
consumption and per capita capita stock for the aggregate economy
as:
dct ct
= f 0 (kt ) n (3)
dt ( ct )
dkt
= f (kt ) (n + )kt ct (4)
dt
Das (Delhi School of Economics) Dynamic Macro July-August, 2016 53 / 90
R-C-K Model: Equivalence between Centralized and
De-centralized Economy
Compare equations (3) and (4) with the dynamic equations derived
for the social planner earlier. Observe that they are exactly
identical!
This implies that even for the continuous time the R-C-K model, the
optimal trajectories for the decentralized market economy and
the centralized planning economy would be identical.
Since we have already proved that the steady state for the social
planners problem would be dynamically e cient, so would be the
steady state for the market economy.
ct2
ct1 + = wt . (4)
(1 + rte+1 )
The agent decides on his optimal consumption in the two periods by
maximising (1) subject to (2).
Since the agent is taking his savings decision in the rst period, when
second periods market interest rate is not yet known, he must
optimize on the basis of some expected value of the rt +1 .
As before, we shall assume that agents have perfect
foresight/rational expectations such that rte+1 = rt +1 for all t.
Das (Delhi School of Economics) Dynamic Macro July-August, 2016 63 / 90
Representative Agents Optimal Consumption & Savings:
u 0 (ct1 )
= (1 + rt +1 ). (5)
u 0 (ct2 )
From the FONC and the life-time budget constraint, we can derive
the optimal solutions as:
ct1 = (wt , rt +1 );
ct2 = (wt , rt +1 ).
st = wt (wt , rt +1 ) (wt , rt +1 ).
sr R 0
according as, substitution eect R income eect.
Das (Delhi School of Economics) Dynamic Macro July-August, 2016 67 / 90
Aggregate Consumption & Savings:
Yt = wt Nt + rt Kt . (6)
The entire wage income goes to the current young generation. Each
of them saves a part of the wage income (st ) and consume the rest.
Thus,
wt Nt = ct1 Nt + st Nt .
On the other hand, the entire interest income goes to the current old
generation. Each of them consume not only the interest earnings but
the left over capital stock as well. Thus,
ct2 1 Nt 1 = rt Kt + (1 )Kt .
Ct = ct1 Nt + ct2 1 Nt 1
= [wt Nt st Nt ] + [rt Kt + (1 )Kt ]
= wt Nt + rt Kt [st Nt (1 )Kt ] (7)
| {z }
St
Ct + I t = Yt , where It Kt +1 (1 )Kt
) Kt +1 = st Nt .
Notice that
kt + 1 )
(k, 1 (wt , rt +1 )
=
kt +1 (1 + n ) kt +1
1 (wt , rt +1 ) drt +1
=
(1 + n ) rt +1 dkt +1
1
= sr f 00 (kt +1 ).
(1 + n )
Thus a su cient condition for the existence of a unique perfect
foresight path is: sr = 0.
Henceforth we shall assume that this condition is satised (i.e., the
utility function is such that the substitution eect of price change
dominates the income eect).
In other words, the nice result of the Solow model of a unique and
globally stable steady state is no longer gauranteed - despite the
production function satifying all the standard neoclassical
properties - including diminishing returns and the Inada
conditions!
What about dynamic e ciency?
Even that is not gauranteed any more!
Below we provide an example - with specic functional forms - to
show that dynamic e ciency is not necessarily gauranteed under the
OLG model - despite optimizing savings behaviour by the agents.
Before we turn to the specic functional forms, let us rst dene the
golden rule in the context of the OLG model.
As before let us dene the golden ruleas that particular steady state
which maximises the steady state level of per capita (average)
consumption.
Notice however that now there are two sets of people at any point of
time t - current young (Nt ) and current old (Nt 1 ).
Hence per capita (average) consumption at any point of time t would
be dened as:
ct1 Nt + ct2 1 Nt 1 ct1 Nt + ct2 1 Nt 1 (1 + n)ct1 + ct2 1
ct = = = .
Lt Nt + Nt 1 1 + (1 + n )
c1 = (w (k ), r (k )) = w (k ) s ; (11)
2
c = (w (k ), r (k )) = [1 + r (k ) ] s . (12)
ct2
ct1 + = wt .
rt +1
The corresponding FONC:
ct2
= rt +1 . (13)
ct1
1
kt +1 = (1 ) (kt ) .
1+n 1+
It is easy to see that the above phase line will generate a unique
non-trivial steady state which is globally stable.
The corresponding steady state solution is dened as:
1
k = (1 ) (k )
1+n 1+
1
1 1
i.e., k = (1 ) .
1+n 1+
Notice that given the specic functional form, the golden rulevalue
of the capital-labour ratio can be derived as:
kg : f 0 (k ) = (n + )
1
i.e., kg : (k ) = 1+n
1
1
i.e., kg = .
1+n
It is easy to verify that the steady state under this specic example
will be dynamically ine cient whenever
> .
1+ 1
1 1
Example: = ; = .
2 5
Das (Delhi School of Economics) Dynamic Macro July-August, 2016 84 / 90
Reason for Dynamic Ine ciency in the OLG Model:
Thus we see that dynamic ine ciency may arise in the OLG model -
despite optimizing savings behaviour by households.
This apparently paradoxical result stems from the fact that agents are
selshin the OLG model; they do not care for their childrens
utility/consumption.
Thus when they optimise they equate the MRS with (the discounted
value of) the actual future return (rt +1 + 1 ):
u 0 (ct1 )
= ( rt + 1 + 1 ).
u 0 (ct2 )
rt +1 R .
Recall that in the R-C-K model the corresponding equation was given
by:
dc ct
= [ rt n ] .
dt ( ct )
dc
Thus in the R-C-K framework, R 0 i.e, consumption would rise,
dt
fall or remain unchanged over time if the corresponding
population-adjusted (future) return, measured by (rt n ) is
greater, equal to or less than the subjective cost measured by .
Das (Delhi School of Economics) Dynamic Macro July-August, 2016 86 / 90
Reason for Dynamic Ine ciency in OLG Model (Contd.)
Notice that both in the OLG model and the R-C-K model, households
will stop saving whenever their percieved return is less than the
subjective cost .
But due to presence of intergenerational altrauism, in the R-C-K
model the percieved return is adjusted for popultion growth and is
given by r n, whereas in the OLG model this return is just r
This implies that in the R-C-K model households will necessarily stop
saving when the (net) marginal product has fallen below the
population growth rate (rt n < 0).
But there is no reason why in the OLG model, households would stop
saving in this scenario, because even though the net gross marginal
product (rt +1 ) has fallen below n - it might still greater than the
subjective cost .
Thus there is a tendency to oversave (compared to the R-C-K model),
which persists even when the economy has moved into a dynamically
ine cient region (i.e., rt +1 < + n ).
Das (Delhi School of Economics) Dynamic Macro July-August, 2016 87 / 90
Dynamic Ine ciency & Scope for Government Intervention
in the OLG Model:
Since under the OLG framework, the steady state of the decentralized
market economy may be dynamically ine cient (despite rational
expectations on part of the agents), this again justies a role of
government in improving e ciency.
Thus the conclusions of the OLG model are diametrically opposite of
that of the R-C-K model - even though both are based on strictly
neoclassical production function and optimizing agents.
The dierence arises primarily due to the absence of parental altruism
in the OLG framework.
It can be shown that if we introduce parental altruism in the OLG
model (by incorporating a bequest term that each parent leaves to his
child at the end of his life time), then the OLG framework will be very
similar to the R-C-K framework.