Qualitative Risk Analysis
Qualitative Risk Analysis
Qualitative Risk Analysis
3. Risk data
4. Project
Management Plan quality
assessment
4. Risk
Categorization
5. Risk urgency
assessment
Focuses on prioritizing risks using probability and impact of the risk as well as time frame
and risk tolerance. It also leads to over all risks of the project. It is also known as Risk
assessment.
TT: Risk probability and impact assessment, Probability and impact matrix, Risk data
quality assessment, Risk Categorization (based on common causes, using
RBS/WBS/Phases), Risk urgency assessment.
2.Probabilistic cost estimates at completion per project phase and probabilistic schedule
estimates for key milestones to help the project manager allocate reserve accordingly,
Estimates of the probability of meeting cost, technical performance, and schedule objectives
(e.g., determining the probability of achieving the planned estimate at completion)
Updated Risk Register
Probabilistic analysis for project success (time and cost)
Updated priority of risk events
Trends in risk analysis
The process of numerically analyzing the effect of identified risks on the projects
objectives In particular, the project schedule and the project costs.
Identify realistic and achievable cost, schedule, or scope targets, given project risks
RISK: If the new data center is completed early, then the project can take
advantage of the new technology, which will optimize the software development
process.
Probability Rating The probability of the data center completing early is 35% so
the Probability Rating is Moderate.
Impact Rating:
1x2x2x2=8
Risk Score = 2 x 2, or 4
Using the PIM for Opportunities we find this risk resides in the RED area. This
means it is something to be aware of, but as the project manager, you may not
want to put any resources towards it because it doesnt score very high.
ity
Probabil
Impact
Low Moderate High
High 6 12 18
Moderate 4 8 12
Low 2 4 6
EXAMPLE of Qualitative Analysis - Threat
RISK: If the user community does not become properly involved in the
requirements gathering phase of this software development project, there is a
chance we will miss an important feature.
Probability Rating The probability of this group not placing the proper priority of
the requirements phase of the project is 80% so the Probability Rating is High.
Impact Rating:
3 x 3 x 3 x 2 = 54
Using the PIM for Opportunities we find this risk resides in the RED area. This
means it is something to keep a very close watch on.
Probability
Impact
Low Moderate High
High -6 -12 -18
Moderate -4 -8 -12
Low -2 -4 -6
The Risk Register within the Project Log will calculate the Risk Score based on the
inputs to the Probability and Impact fields. The Risk Register will also colorize
the risks based on the PIM parameters presented in this document.
Prioritizing project risks - Risks can be prioritized using any of the fields
contained in the Risk Register. Using the sorting capability native to Microsoft
Excel, users have the ability to sort risks based on the different fields. This
allows the a variety of views of the same data while placing an emphasis on
specific field information that may be the priority, such as Risk Score, Timing or
Risk Triggers.
it assigns numerical ranking to the prioritized risks primarily uses Monte Carlo
Simulation and Decision Tree Analysis. It should be redone after RRP and RMC to asses
risk reduction.
IP: OP Assets, Scope Statement, RMP, Risk Register, PMP (SMP, CMP).
TT:
1. Expert Judgment
2. Data Gathering and Representation Techniques
o Interviewing,
It creates owner for each agreed to and funded risk. Risks responses are developed in
risk planning and risk response planning stage
IP: RMP, Risk Register
TT: Strategy for negative risk (avoid, transfer, mitigate), Strategy for positive risk
( exploit, share, enhance), for both acceptance, contingent response strategy,
OP: Risk Register (Updates), PMP (updates), Risk related contractual agreement.