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    Mamo - 2nd Ocean Energy - Bali 23052013 2

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    okiamirullah
    - Indonesia's energy demand is projected to triple by 2030 due to population and economic growth, remaining heavily dependent on fossil fuels which are expected to contribute 82% of energy supply. - Renewable energy contribution is projected to increase over 4 times between 2010-2030, with biofuels becoming the main source of renewable energy. However, renewable energy will still only account for 17.5% of energy supply by 2030 under current policies. - BPPT has been developing renewable energy technologies for over 30 years but they remain pre-commercial due to non-technology barriers including lack of integration in energy policy and downstream market conditions. Ocean energy in particular has significant untapped potential given Indonesia's maritime geography but has seen

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    Mamo - 2nd Ocean Energy - Bali 23052013 2

    Uploaded by

    okiamirullah
    20 views9 pages
    - Indonesia's energy demand is projected to triple by 2030 due to population and economic growth, remaining heavily dependent on fossil fuels which are expected to contribute 82% of energy supply. - Renewable energy contribution is projected to increase over 4 times between 2010-2030, with biofuels becoming the main source of renewable energy. However, renewable energy will still only account for 17.5% of energy supply by 2030 under current policies. - BPPT has been developing renewable energy technologies for over 30 years but they remain pre-commercial due to non-technology barriers including lack of integration in energy policy and downstream market conditions. Ocean energy in particular has significant untapped potential given Indonesia's maritime geography but has seen

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    Present an overview of Indonesia Renewable Energy Outlook & Prospect for Ocean Energy

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    Mamo - 2nd Ocean Energy - Bali 23052013 2 Copy

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    - Indonesia's energy demand is projected to triple by 2030 due to population and economic growth, remaining heavily dependent on fossil fuels which are expected to contribute 82% of energy supply. - Renewable energy contribution is projected to increase over 4 times between 2010-2030, with biofuels becoming the main source of renewable energy. However, renewable energy will still only account for 17.5% of energy supply by 2030 under current policies. - BPPT has been developing renewable energy technologies for over 30 years but they remain pre-commercial due to non-technology barriers including lack of integration in energy policy and downstream market conditions. Ocean energy in particular has significant untapped potential given Indonesia's maritime geography but has seen

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    20 views9 pages

    Mamo - 2nd Ocean Energy - Bali 23052013 2

    Uploaded by

    okiamirullah
    - Indonesia's energy demand is projected to triple by 2030 due to population and economic growth, remaining heavily dependent on fossil fuels which are expected to contribute 82% of energy supply. - Renewable energy contribution is projected to increase over 4 times between 2010-2030, with biofuels becoming the main source of renewable energy. However, renewable energy will still only account for 17.5% of energy supply by 2030 under current policies. - BPPT has been developing renewable energy technologies for over 30 years but they remain pre-commercial due to non-technology barriers including lack of integration in energy policy and downstream market conditions. Ocean energy in particular has significant untapped potential given Indonesia's maritime geography but has seen

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    of 9

    7/30/17

    Indonesia Renewable Energy Outlook


    & Prospect for Ocean Energy
    M.A.M. Oktaufik

    Indonesia Energy Sector Overview


    Energy

    Source: EBTKE KESDM 2012

    Tripled Demand & Doubled Supply in 2 decades, heavily Fossil based Energy dependent
    Main factors incl. Population & Economic (GDP) growth rate

    1
    7/30/17

    Indonesia Energy Outlook Model: Methodology


    Policy, Business Plan, Economic & Politic Conditions, Technology, etc

    Markal Optimization + BPPT's Indonesia Demand Model


    11/09/12 2

    Indonesia Energy Outlook (2012): Primary Energy


    (Base Case: 8% GDP Avg.Growth)

    Rapid increase in final energy demand (domestic) between 2010 and 2030 to support GDP growth rate averaging
    7.6% (base) and 10.4% (MP3EI), the baseline scenario is estimated to increase 3 times of 2010, namely close to
    3,000 million BOE per year, whereas in scenario MP3EI reached more than 4-fold
    Energy supply in 2030 will be dominated by fossil energy sources (82%).
    Coal became the main supplier of energy in the energy mix since 2015, amounting to 31% and to 38% in 2030.
    The share of natural gas (Basic Scenario) decreased slightly (15.6%), but still higher than EBT (13%), and firewood
    (10%) in 2015.

    2
    7/30/17

    New & Renewable Energy Sources


    Contribution in Energy-Mix

    Base Case scenario: the provision of NRE grew > 8% per year; increase use of NRE > 4x fold: from 141
    million BOE in 2010 to 670 million BOE in 2030.
    EBT rapid growth has not been able to increase its role in the national energy mix.

    11/09/12

    New & Renewable Energy Sources by Type

    2030: biofuel become the main RE utilization, particularly for transportation sector, follows
    by geothermal, Hydro, Biomass, solar, Waste, and Wind (total 17,5% base case)

    11/09/12

    3
    7/30/17

    Outlook of Power Plant Capacity


    by Type of Fuel/Source

    2010 2030:
    Multiply by ~ 5 - 7 folds
    33,2 GW (2010) -> 162 GW
    (2030, Base, 8%/th).
    -->228 GW (2030,
    MP3EI, 10%/th)

    Coal PP: Primary Tech.


    2030: 97,6 GW (base) and
    160,7 GW MP3EI).

    NRE Vs Fossil based PP



    2010 s.d. 2030: RE Power
    Generation ~6x; 6,6 -> 39
    GW
    Types: Geothermal, Hydro,
    Biomass, Nuclear, Solar
    PV, Coal Gasification/CCT,
    Wind, Waste/W2E
    Geothermal & Hydro: 12
    GW (7%) and 18,3
    GW(11%) in 2030.
    Nuclear is predicted to
    produce 2 GW (1%) in
    2028, 4 GW (2%) in2030.

    4
    7/30/17

    Renewable Energy for Electricity


    Paradigm shift of National Energy Policy: availability and
    affordability limitation of Fossil Fuel ---> more role and hope to New
    and Renewable Energy Sources and also Energy Efficiency in the
    national energy-mix in the near future.
    High increase of energy demand (Fuel and Electricity): population
    and economic growth, give more pressure to increase the energy supply
    (fuel and electricity)
    Types of Renewable Energy Technology:
    Solar PV, Pico/Micro/Mini Hydro, Bioenergy: with their own
    limitation and benefit, in particularly their site specific, low energy-
    density and intermittent profile. Economically can not compete the
    heavily subsidized fossil fuel.
    Ocean Energy have a better source potential, (Ocean area almost
    2/3 of whole Indonesia area: a Maritime Continent) but very limited
    R&D activities in Indonesia.

    Low Carbon Energy Development &


    BPPTs Experiences (1980 now)
    BPPT has been developing 'cleaner' energy
    technology to support sustainable energy for more
    than 30 years; However, the related technology
    remain in their pre-commercialization stage.
    Implementation of low carbon energy in Indonesia has
    not take-off due to non technology barriers, such as
    conditions in the down stream and non integration of
    upstream and process of Low Carbon Energy
    development, almost all types of Renewable Energy
    source; such as Solar (PV & Thermal), Micro/Mini
    Hydro, Biomass Energy, Biofuels, Wind Energy,
    Ocean Energy (OTEC, Wave, Current), etc.
    13

    5
    7/30/17

    Timeline of RE & EE R&D :


    BPPT's Experiences

    Pilot Plant
    Bio-Ethanol PV Testing Energy Efficiency Applications &
    & energy Facility/Lab. Audit in Energy Intensive
    Plantation Industries
    Smart Grid
    -PV Applications
    & Pilotings Biomass Wind Energy
    (Housing, Rural, PV Hybrid Technology
    Gasification Piloting
    Pumping, etc) Geothermal Microturbine (Low Velocity) Biomass/Biogas
    Pilot plant Cogeneration Power
    OTEC Bali Appl. Proj. Generation
    (Design) Microhydro Biohydrogen Ocean Current
    Piloting Production Prototyping &
    1979: 1985: 1990: 1995 2003 2006 2010:potential mapping

    -Solar Village 2012 -


    Project Biofuels for
    Transportation
    Biodiesel
    -Solar Thermal Plant Dev. Small
    Solar Agro Pump
    Drying Geothermal
    Power Plant
    Renewable Energy PV IndustryPrototyping
    IndonesiaProject Feasibility
    -Solar Thermal Tap-Chan+ Assessment
    Timber Drying OWC
    Study
    (Baron) 14

    Indonesia Archipelago: a Maritime Continent


    Islands = 17,480
    Ocean = 5.8 million km2
    Ocean EEZ = 2.7 million km2
    Costline = 95,180 km
    Population (2010) = 236 million

    6
    7/30/17

    Comparison of Energy Resources

    Renewable Low Low Minimal Predictable Modular


    Resource Capital Running Environmental
    Cost Cost Impact
    Fossil N Y N N Y N
    Nuclear N Y N N Y N
    Wind Y N Y Y N Y
    Solar Y N Y Y N Y
    Hydro Y Y Y N Y N
    Wave Y N Y Y N Y
    Current Y N Y Y Y Y
    OTEC Y N NA Y Y Y

    Ocean Energy Power Generation Technology still in the initial stage

    Discussions & Recommendations (1)

    Long-term energy model study of Indonesia's energy condition by


    2030, with the assumption of optimistic economic growth (8%) and
    high/MP3EI (10%), indicating the dominance of fossil energy sources
    (83%) over the renewable energy sources (17%) in its role as a
    supplier for domestic energy demand or national energy-mix.
    Outlook of RE utilization still below the targeted conditions of the long-
    term national energy policy. There is a very big challenge and
    opportunity of all Renewable Energy technologies & Resources in
    developing the future sustainable energy in Indonesia.
    Almost all of the RE technologies remain in their early stage of
    commercial applications in Indonesia. Therefore, the Ocean Energy
    technology development need to be accelerated to join the effort to
    give us the so called low-carbon energy supply for the sustainable
    development and society.

    7
    7/30/17

    Discussions & Recommendations (2)


    Ocean energy potential was very small or unaccounted in the OEI
    model. More information is needed on the potential and feasibility
    of the future Ocean energy application in Indonesia.
    More piloting and R&D activities of the OEPG technology is
    important to gain understanding and interest in developing this
    technology.
    Demand wise development of OEPG Plants require a good long
    term planning and close to the populated or industrial area. To
    support this requirement, a spatial mapping approach need to be
    conducted due to various activities (transportation, fishery, etc)
    present in the same area or locations.
    Micro and Smart Grid technology development nowadays can give
    benefit to accelerate the Ocean Energy development. Therefore
    any pilot project of OEPG need to be integrated with the other
    Renewable Energy Power Plants (Hybrid Power System)

    Discussions & Recommendations (3)

    Compare to the other types of Renewable Energy (RE) sources, the


    ocean energy technology seems lack behind. However, almost all of
    the RE technology still in the early stage of its commercial
    applications in Indonesia. Therefore, the Ocean Energy technology
    development need to be accelerated to join the effort to provide the
    low-carbon energy supply for the sustainable development and
    society.
    At present stage, the sources potential Mapping very crucial to
    accelerate the dissemination of the Ocean Energy technology,
    moreover, a spatial approach need to be added due to various
    activities (transportation, fishery, etc) present in the same area or
    locations.
    Integration with the electricity distribution system: Micro and Smart
    Grid technology development nowadays can give benefit to
    accelerate the Ocean Energy development and need to be integrated

    8
    7/30/17

    Thank You for your kind


    Attention

    16

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