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    PRESS RELEASE: "Gambling and War: Risk, Reward, and Chance in International Conflict"

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    Naval Institute Press
    n 1914, as Germany mobilized for war, Chancellor Theobald von Bethmann-Hollweg remarked to the country’s legislators, “If the iron dice must roll, then God help us.” War has often been compared to a game of dice or a lottery. Just as frequently, however, it has been compared to a game of pure strategy like chess. Napoleon’s shocking successes during the early years of the Napoleonic Wars, for example, are often attributed to strategic superiority and his ability to see the conflict in the same way a player sees the pieces on a chess board. The business of negotiating with adversaries, fighting wars, and ending wars is more complicated than a game of chess, where each player can see all the pieces on the board and knows the possible moves they can make. War is far more chaotic and unpredictable. Yet international bargaining and conflict is not a simple dice game either, where human beings have no control over the outcome. Justin Conrad bets that war is more like a game of poker. Gambling and War brings readers a war college course taught at a Las Vegas casino. To succeed in poker, it is not enough simply to anticipate the actions of other players and try to outsmart them. A successful player must also understand and appreciate the role of randomness. Additionally, players must confront the reality that all human beings are prone to errors in judgment, which in turn cause them to make suboptimal choices under many circumstances. Taken together, these challenges make poker a fascinating and highly unpredictable game, much like the dynamics of international conflict. Any comprehensive analysis of why wars occur and how they are fought must consider a variety of factors, including strategy, human error, and dumb luck. Gambling and War applies lessons learned from poker, blackjack, roulette, and other games of chance to the study of international conflict. Drawing on scholarly insights from a variety of fields, including probability, statistics, political science, psychology, and economics, Conrad offers thoughts on how we can better manage and prevent international conflict, the costliest game of all.

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    PRESS RELEASE: "Gambling and War: Risk, Reward, and Chance in International Conflict"

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    Naval Institute Press
    70 views2 pages
    n 1914, as Germany mobilized for war, Chancellor Theobald von Bethmann-Hollweg remarked to the country’s legislators, “If the iron dice must roll, then God help us.” War has often been compared to a game of dice or a lottery. Just as frequently, however, it has been compared to a game of pure strategy like chess. Napoleon’s shocking successes during the early years of the Napoleonic Wars, for example, are often attributed to strategic superiority and his ability to see the conflict in the same way a player sees the pieces on a chess board. The business of negotiating with adversaries, fighting wars, and ending wars is more complicated than a game of chess, where each player can see all the pieces on the board and knows the possible moves they can make. War is far more chaotic and unpredictable. Yet international bargaining and conflict is not a simple dice game either, where human beings have no control over the outcome. Justin Conrad bets that war is more like a game of poker. Gambling and War brings readers a war college course taught at a Las Vegas casino. To succeed in poker, it is not enough simply to anticipate the actions of other players and try to outsmart them. A successful player must also understand and appreciate the role of randomness. Additionally, players must confront the reality that all human beings are prone to errors in judgment, which in turn cause them to make suboptimal choices under many circumstances. Taken together, these challenges make poker a fascinating and highly unpredictable game, much like the dynamics of international conflict. Any comprehensive analysis of why wars occur and how they are fought must consider a variety of factors, including strategy, human error, and dumb luck. Gambling and War applies lessons learned from poker, blackjack, roulette, and other games of chance to the study of international conflict. Drawing on scholarly insights from a variety of fields, including probability, statistics, political science, psychology, and economics, Conrad offers thoughts on how we can better manage and prevent international conflict, the costliest game of all.

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    n 1914, as Germany mobilized for war, Chancellor Theobald von Bethmann-Hollweg remarked to the country’s legislators, “If the iron dice must roll, then God help us.” War has often been compared to a game of dice or a lottery. Just as frequently, however, it has been compared to a game of pure strategy like chess. Napoleon’s shocking successes during the early years of the Napoleonic Wars, for example, are often attributed to strategic superiority and his ability to see the conflict in the same way a player sees the pieces on a chess board. The business of negotiating with adversaries, fighting wars, and ending wars is more complicated than a game of chess, where each player can see all the pieces on the board and knows the possible moves they can make. War is far more chaotic and unpredictable. Yet international bargaining and conflict is not a simple dice game either, where human beings have no control over the outcome. Justin Conrad bets that war is more like a game of poker. Gambling and War brings readers a war college course taught at a Las Vegas casino. To succeed in poker, it is not enough simply to anticipate the actions of other players and try to outsmart them. A successful player must also understand and appreciate the role of randomness. Additionally, players must confront the reality that all human beings are prone to errors in judgment, which in turn cause them to make suboptimal choices under many circumstances. Taken together, these challenges make poker a fascinating and highly unpredictable game, much like the dynamics of international conflict. Any comprehensive analysis of why wars occur and how they are fought must consider a variety of factors, including strategy, human error, and dumb luck. Gambling and War applies lessons learned from poker, blackjack, roulette, and other games of chance to the study of international conflict. Drawing on scholarly insights from a variety of fields, including probability, statistics, political science, psychology, and economics, Conrad offers thoughts on how we can better manage and prevent international conflict, the costliest game of all.

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    70 views2 pages

    PRESS RELEASE: "Gambling and War: Risk, Reward, and Chance in International Conflict"

    Uploaded by

    Naval Institute Press
    n 1914, as Germany mobilized for war, Chancellor Theobald von Bethmann-Hollweg remarked to the country’s legislators, “If the iron dice must roll, then God help us.” War has often been compared to a game of dice or a lottery. Just as frequently, however, it has been compared to a game of pure strategy like chess. Napoleon’s shocking successes during the early years of the Napoleonic Wars, for example, are often attributed to strategic superiority and his ability to see the conflict in the same way a player sees the pieces on a chess board. The business of negotiating with adversaries, fighting wars, and ending wars is more complicated than a game of chess, where each player can see all the pieces on the board and knows the possible moves they can make. War is far more chaotic and unpredictable. Yet international bargaining and conflict is not a simple dice game either, where human beings have no control over the outcome. Justin Conrad bets that war is more like a game of poker. Gambling and War brings readers a war college course taught at a Las Vegas casino. To succeed in poker, it is not enough simply to anticipate the actions of other players and try to outsmart them. A successful player must also understand and appreciate the role of randomness. Additionally, players must confront the reality that all human beings are prone to errors in judgment, which in turn cause them to make suboptimal choices under many circumstances. Taken together, these challenges make poker a fascinating and highly unpredictable game, much like the dynamics of international conflict. Any comprehensive analysis of why wars occur and how they are fought must consider a variety of factors, including strategy, human error, and dumb luck. Gambling and War applies lessons learned from poker, blackjack, roulette, and other games of chance to the study of international conflict. Drawing on scholarly insights from a variety of fields, including probability, statistics, political science, psychology, and economics, Conrad offers thoughts on how we can better manage and prevent international conflict, the costliest game of all.

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    of 2

    FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

    Contact: Jacqline Barnes


    (410) 295-1028, [email protected]
    www.usni.org

    GAMBLING AND WAR


    RISK, REWARD, AND CHANCE IN INTERNATIONAL CONFLICT

    Scholars and members of the public alike


    often refer to war as a gamble, but how and
    why this is the case and the resemblance
    between war and games of chance are rarely
    plumbed as interesting and carefully as they
    are by Justin Conrad. Whether you are
    preparing to play poker or to study a war,
    you can learn a lot from Gambling and
    War.
    Robert Jervis, author of How Statesmen
    Think

    In this innovative and exciting study, Justin


    Conrad explores the intersection of strategy
    and psychology in war through analogy with
    the game of poker. With careful scholarship
    and well-selected examples, Conrad shows
    that international politics is the most
    dangerous game humans play.
    Stephen Benedict Dyson, author of
    Other Worldly Politics

    In 1914, as Germany mobilized for war, Chancellor Theobald von Bethmann-Hollweg remarked
    to the countrys legislators, If the iron dice must roll, then God help us. War has often been
    likened to a game of dice or a lottery. But just as frequently, war has been compared to a game of
    pure strategy like chess. In reality, the business of negotiating with adversaries, fighting wars,
    and ending wars is far more complicated than a game of chess, where each player can see all the
    pieces on the board and knows the possible moves that they can make. War is far more chaotic
    and unpredictable. And yet, international bargaining and international conflict is not a simple
    dice game either, where human beings have no control over the outcome.
    Justin Conrad bets that war is more like a game of poker. Gambling and War: Risk, Reward, and
    Chance in International Conflict brings readers a war college course taught at a Las Vegas
    casino. To succeed in poker, it is not enough to simply anticipate the actions of other players and
    try to outsmart them. A successful player must also understand and appreciate the role of
    randomness. Additionally, players must confront the reality that all human beings are prone to
    errors in judgment, which cause them to make suboptimal choices under many circumstances.
    Taken together, these challenges make poker a fascinating and highly unpredictable game, much
    like the challenges of international conflicts. Any comprehensive analysis of why wars occur and
    how they are fought must take into account a variety of factors including strategy, human error,
    and dumb luck.

    Gambling and War applies lessons learned from poker, blackjack, roulette, and other games of
    chance to the study of international conflict. Drawing on scholarly insights from a variety of
    fields, including probability, statistics, political science, psychology, and economics, Conrad
    offers thoughts on how we can better manage and prevent international conflict, the costliest
    game of all.

    JUSTIN CONRAD, PhD, is associate professor of political science at theUniversity of North


    Carolina at Charlotte. Dr. Conrad has published studies on international conflict and terrorism in
    leading academic journals. He is also an officer in the U.S. Navy Reserve and a terrible poker
    player.

    GAMBLING AND WAR


    Risk, Reward, and Chance in International Conflict
    By Justin Conrad
    Publication date: 15 October 2017

    ISBN:978-1-68247-219-4| Hardcover eBook | list price: $29.95


    Military | Strategy
    6 x 9 | 256 pages | 12 b/w figures

    Naval Institute Press

    At bookstores, online
    or direct: In Canada: International:
    NAVAL INSTITUTE PRESS SCHOLARLY BOOK SERVICE EUROSPAN GROUP
    800-233-8764/410-268-6110 800-847-9736 Tele: 1767 604972
    www.usni.org www.sbookscan.com www.eurospanbookstore.com

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