Mission Concepts and Timelines

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Mars is the focus of much scientific study about possible human colonization.

Its surface
conditions and the presence of water on Mars make it arguably the most hospitable of the
planets in the Solar System, other than Earth. Mars requires less energy per unit mass (delta-v)
to reach from Earth than any planet except Venus.
Permanent human habitation on a planetary body other than the Earth is one of science fiction's
most prevalent themes. As technology has advanced, and concerns about the future of humanity
on Earthhave increased, the argument that space colonization is an achievable and worthwhile
goal has gained momentum.[1][2] Other reasons for colonizing space include economic interests,
long-term scientific research best carried out by humans as opposed to robotic probes, and sheer
curiosity.
One of Elon Musk's stated goals through his company SpaceX is to make such colonization
possible by providing transport, and to "help humanity establish a permanent, self-sustaining
colony on Mars within the next 50 to 100 years".[3]

Contents
[hide]

1Mission concepts and timelines


o 1.1SpaceX (colonization)
o 1.2Mars One (colonization)
o 1.3US Government (non-colonizing return trip)
o 1.4Russian Government (non-colonizing return trip)
2Relative similarity to Earth
3Differences from Earth
4Conditions for human habitation
o 4.1Effects on human health
4.1.1Physical effects
4.1.2Psychological effects
o 4.2Terraforming
5Radiation
6Transportation
o 6.1Interplanetary spaceflight
o 6.2Landing on Mars
7Equipment needed for colonization
o 7.1Communication
8Robotic precursors
9Economics
o 9.1Economic drivers
10Possible locations for settlements
11Planetary protection
12Ethical, political and legal challenges
13Advocacy
14In fiction
15Interactive Mars map
16See also
17References
18Further reading
19External links

Mission concepts and timelines[edit]


See also: Vision for Space Exploration
All of the early human mission concepts to Mars as conceived by national governmental space
programssuch as those being tentatively planned by NASA, FKA and ESAwould not be direct
precursors to colonization. They are intended solely as exploration missions, as
the Apollo missions to the Moon were not planned to be sites of a permanent base.
Colonization requires the establishment of permanent bases that have potential for self-
expansion. A famous proposal for building such bases is the Mars Directand the Semi-
Direct plans, advocated by Robert Zubrin.[4]
Other proposals that envision the creation of a settlement have come from Jim McLane and Bas
Lansdorp (the man behind Mars One, which envisions no planned return flight for the humans
embarking on the journey),[5] as well as from Elon Musk whose SpaceX company, as of 2015, is
funding development work on a space transportation system called the Interplanetary Transport
System.[6][7]

SpaceX (colonization)[edit]
2022- As of October 2017, owner Elon Musk is planning for a manned Mars landing in
2022.[8] Concept video published October 2017[9]

Mars One (colonization)[edit]


2032- As of May 2017, the Mars One website is planning a permanent manned Mars landing in
2032.[10] Concept video published June 2012.[11] A subsequent concept video was released on
September 2015.[12]

US Government (non-colonizing return trip)[edit]


2030s- As of May 2017 (dated December 2014), NASA is planning for a round trip manned
landing on Mars in the 2030s.[13]

Russian Government (non-colonizing return trip)[edit]


2030- As of April 2014, Russia is planning for a round trip manned landing on Mars by the year
2030.[14]

Relative similarity to Earth[edit]


Space colonization
Solar System
Inner
Mercury
Venus
Earth
Moon
Lagrange points
Mars
Phobos
Deimos
Asteroid mining
Free space
Outer
Jupiter
Io
Europa
Ganymede
Callisto
Saturn
Titan
Uranus
Neptune
Trans-Neptunian objects
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Earth is similar to Venus in bulk composition, size and surface gravity, but Mars's similarities to
Earth are more compelling when considering colonization. These include:

The Martian day (or sol) is very close in duration to Earth's. A solar day on Mars is 24 hours,
39 minutes and 35.244 seconds.[15]
Mars has a surface area that is 28.4% of Earth's, only slightly less than the amount of dry
land on Earth (which is 29.2% of Earth's surface). Mars has half the radius of Earth and only
one-tenth the mass. This means that it has a smaller volume (~15%) and lower average
density than Earth.
Mars has an axial tilt of 25.19, similar to Earth's 23.44. As a result, Mars has seasons much
like Earth, though they last nearly twice as long because the Martian year is about 1.88 Earth
years. The Martian north pole currently points at Cygnus, not Ursa Minor like Earth's.
Recent observations by NASA's Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter, ESA's Mars Express and
NASA's Phoenix Lander confirm the presence of water ice on Mars.

Differences from Earth[edit]


Atmospheric pressure comparison

Location Pressure

Olympus Mons summit 0.03 kPa (0.0044 psi)

Mars average 0.6 kPa (0.087 psi)

Hellas Planitia bottom 1.16 kPa (0.168 psi)

Armstrong limit 6.25 kPa (0.906 psi)

Mount Everest summit[16] 33.7 kPa (4.89 psi)

Earth sea level 101.3 kPa (14.69 psi)


Although there are some extremophile organisms that survive in hostile conditions on Earth,
including simulations that approximate Mars, plants and animals generally cannot survive the
ambient conditions present on the surface of Mars.[17]
The surface gravity of Mars is 38% that of Earth. Although microgravity is known to cause
health problems such as muscle loss and bone demineralization,[18][19] it is not known if
Martian gravity would have a similar effect. The Mars Gravity Biosatellitewas a proposed
project designed to learn more about what effect Mars's lower surface gravity would have on
humans, but it was cancelled due to a lack of funding.[20]
Mars is much colder than Earth, with mean surface temperatures between 186 and 268 K
(87 and 5 C; 125 and 23 F) (depending on position).[21][22]The lowest temperature ever
recorded on Earth was 180 K (89.2 C, 128.6 F) in Antarctica.
Surface water on Mars may occur transiently, but only under certain conditions.[23][24]
Because Mars is about 52% farther from the Sun, the amount of solar energy entering its
upper atmosphere per unit area (the solar constant) is only around 43.3% of what reaches
the Earth's upper atmosphere.[25] However, due to the much thinner atmosphere, a higher
fraction of the solar energy reaches the surface.[26][27][not in citation given] The maximum solar
irradiance on Mars is about 590 W/m2 compared to about 1000 W/m2 at the Earth's surface.
Also, year-round dust storms on Mars may block sunlight for weeks at a time.[28][29]
Mars's orbit is more eccentric than Earth's, increasing temperature and solar constant
variations.
Due to the lack of a magnetosphere, solar particle events and cosmic rays can easily reach
the Martian surface.[30][31][32]
The atmospheric pressure on Mars is far below the Armstrong limit at which people can
survive without pressure suits. Since terraforming cannot be expected as a near-term
solution, habitable structures on Mars would need to be constructed with pressure
vessels similar to spacecraft, capable of containing a pressure between 30 and 100 kPa.
See Atmosphere of Mars.
The Martian atmosphere is 95% carbon dioxide, 3% nitrogen, 1.6% argon, and traces of
other gases including oxygen totaling less than 0.4%.
Martian air has a partial pressure of CO2 of 0.71 kPa, compared to 0.031 kPa on Earth.
CO2 poisoning (hypercapnia) in humans begins at about 0.10 kPa. Even for plants, CO2 much
above 0.15 kPa is toxic. This means Martian air is toxic to both plants and animals even at
the reduced total pressure.[33]
The thin atmosphere does not filter out ultraviolet sunlight.

Conditions for human habitation[edit]


Conditions on the surface of Mars are closer to the conditions on Earth in terms of temperature
and sunlight than on any other planet or moon, except for the cloud tops of Venus.[34] However,
the surface is not hospitable to humans or most known life forms due to greatly reduced air
pressure, and an atmosphere with only 0.1% oxygen.
In 2012, it was reported that some lichen and cyanobacteria survived and showed
remarkable adaptation capacity for photosynthesis after 34 days in simulatedMartian conditions in
the Mars Simulation Laboratory (MSL) maintained by the German Aerospace
Center (DLR).[35][36][37] Some scientists think that cyanobacteria could play a role in the
development of self-sustainable manned outposts on Mars.[38] They propose that cyanobacteria
could be used directly for various applications, including the production of food, fuel and oxygen,
but also indirectly: products from their culture could support the growth of other organisms,
opening the way to a wide range of life-support biological processes based on Martian
resources.[38]
Humans have explored parts of Earth that match some conditions on Mars. Based on NASA
rover data, temperatures on Mars (at low latitudes) are similar to those in Antarctica.[39] The
atmospheric pressure at the highest altitudes reached by manned balloon ascents (35 km
(114,000 feet) in 1961,[40] 38 km in 2012) is similar to that on the surface of Mars.[41]
Human survival on Mars would require complex life-support measures and living in artificial
environments.

Effects on human health[edit]


Mars presents a hostile environment for human habitation. Different technologies have been
developed to assist long-term space exploration and may be adapted for habitation on Mars. The
existing record for the longest consecutive space flight is 438 days by cosmonaut Valeri
Polyakov,[42] and the most accrued time in space is 878 days by Gennady Padalka.[43] The longest
time spent outside the protection of the Earth's Van Allen radiation belt is about 12 days for
the Apollo 17 moon landing. This is minor in comparison to the 1100 day journey[44] planned by
NASA as soon as the year 2028. Scientists have also hypothesized that many different biological
functions can be negatively affected by the environment of Mars colonies. Due to higher levels of
radiation, there are a multitude of physical side-effects that must be mitigated.[45]
Physical effects[edit]
The difference in gravity will negatively affect human health by weakening bones and muscles.
There is also risk of osteoporosis and cardiovascular problems. Current rotations on
the International Space Station put astronauts in zero gravity for six months, a comparable length
of time to a one-way trip to Mars. This gives researchers the ability to better understand the
physical state that astronauts going to Mars will arrive in. Once on Mars, surface gravity is only
38% of that on Earth.[46] Upon return to Earth, recovery from bone loss and atrophy is a long
process and the effects of microgravity may never fully reverse. There are also severe radiation
risks on Mars that can influence cognitive processes, deteriorate cardiovascular health, inhibit
reproduction, and cause cancer. Additionally, in-utero development is very fragile and severely
affected by radiation. Data from irradiated survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki provide insight
into the "radiosensitivity in humans as a function of gestational age and dose for several CNS
endpoints, including severe mental retardation, head circumference, intelligence test scores, and
school performance".[47] Close monitoring of the radiation received by reproductive colonists will
be necessary to ensure the health of offspring. Additionally, a large focus of colonization
development is on reducing the amount of radiation absorbed by astronauts. But early colonizing
may be faced with these challenges and the harm could be seen for generations, as stated in
academic articles: "the pioneers making the first journeys to Mars and its vicinity to explore and
set up a base that eventually will lead to a continuously occupied colony, will face more hazards
than those that follow".[47]
Psychological effects[edit]
A study from the Journal of Cosmology by Dr. Nick Kanas states that Unprecedented factors will
affect such a mission. A Mars crew will be tens of millions of miles away from home, engaged in a
mission that will last around 2 12years. Crew members [sic] will experience a severe sense of
isolation and separation from the Earth, which will appear as a receding bluish-green dot in the
heavens. From the surface of Mars, there will be 2-way communication delays with the Earth of
up to 44 minutes, depending on where the two planets are located in their respective orbits, and
the crew will be relatively autonomous from mission control. Due to the communication delays,
new protocols need to be developed in order to assess crew members' psychological health.
Researchers have developed a Martian simulation called HI-SEAS (Hawaii Space Exploration
Analog and Simulation) that places scientists in a simulated Martian laboratory to study the
psychological effects of isolation, repetitive tasks, and living in close-quarters with other scientists
for up to a year at a time. Computer programs are being developed to assist crews with personal
and interpersonal issues in absence of direct communication with professionals on
earth.[48] Current suggestions for Mars exploration and colonization are to select individuals who
have passed psychological screenings. Psychosocial sessions for the return home are also
suggested in order to reorient people to society.

Terraforming[edit]
An artist's conception of a terraformed Mars (2009)

Main article: Terraforming of Mars


There is much discussion regarding the possibility of terraforming Mars to allow a wide variety of
life forms, including humans, to survive unaided on Mars's surface, including the technologies
needed to do so.[49]

Radiation[edit]
Further information: Health threat from cosmic rays and Effect of spaceflight on the human body
Mars has no global magnetosphere as Earth does. Combined with a thin atmosphere, this
permits a significant amount of ionizing radiation to reach the Martian surface. The Mars
Odyssey spacecraft carries an instrument, the Mars Radiation Environment Experiment (MARIE),
to measure the radiation. MARIE found that radiation levels in orbit above Mars are 2.5 times
higher than at the International Space Station. The average daily dose was about 220 Gy
(22 mrad) equivalent to 0.08 Gy per year.[50] A three-year exposure to such levels would be
close to the safety limits currently adopted by NASA.[citation needed] Levels at the Martian surface would
be somewhat lower and might vary significantly at different locations depending on altitude and
local magnetic fields. Building living quarters underground (possibly in Martian lava tubes which
are already present) would significantly lower the colonists' exposure to radiation.
Occasional solar proton events (SPEs) produce much higher doses.

Comparison of radiation doses includes the amount detected on the trip from Earth to Mars by
the RAD on the MSL (20112013).[51][52][53]
Much remains to be learned about space radiation. In 2003, NASA's Lyndon B. Johnson Space
Center opened a facility, the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory, at Brookhaven National
Laboratory, that employs particle accelerators to simulate space radiation. The facility studies its
effects on living organisms, as well as experimenting with shielding techniques.[54]Initially, there
was some evidence that this kind of low level, chronic radiation is not quite as dangerous as once
thought; and that radiation hormesis occurs.[55] However, results from a 2006 study indicated that
protons from cosmic radiation may cause twice as much serious damage to DNA as previously
estimated, exposing astronauts to greater risk of cancer and other diseases.[56] As a result of the
higher radiation in the Martian environment, the summary report of the Review of U.S. Human
Space Flight Plans Committee released in 2009 reported that "Mars is not an easy place to visit
with existing technology and without a substantial investment of resources."[56] NASA is exploring
a variety of alternative techniques and technologies such as deflector shields of plasma to protect
astronauts and spacecraft from radiation.[56]
In September 2017, NASA reported radiation levels on the surface of the planet Mars were
temporarily doubled, and were associated with an aurora 25-times brighter than any observed
earlier, due to a massive, and unexpected, solar storm in the middle of the month.[57]

Transportation[edit]
Interplanetary spaceflight[edit]

Mars (Viking 1, 1980)

Mars requires less energy per unit mass (delta V) to reach from Earth than any planet
except Venus. Using a Hohmann transfer orbit, a trip to Mars requires approximately nine months
in space.[58] Modified transfer trajectories that cut the travel time down to four to seven months in
space are possible with incrementally higher amounts of energy and fuel compared to a
Hohmann transfer orbit, and are in standard use for robotic Mars missions. Shortening the travel
time below about six months requires higher delta-v and an exponentially[clarification needed][an exponential function
of what?]
increasing amount of fuel, and is difficult with chemical rockets. It could be feasible with
advanced spacecraft propulsion technologies, some of which have already been tested to varying
levels, such as Variable Specific Impulse Magnetoplasma Rocket,[59] and nuclear rockets. In the
former case, a trip time of forty days could be attainable,[60] and in the latter, a trip time down to
about two weeks.[4] In 2016, a University of California scientist said they could further reduce
travel time for an unmanned probe to Mars down to "as little as 72 hours" with the use of a
"photonic propulsion" system instead of the fuel-based rocket propulsion system.[61]
During the journey the astronauts would be subject to radiation, which would require a means to
protect them. Cosmic radiation and solar wind cause DNA damage, which increases the risk of
cancer significantly. The effect of long-term travel in interplanetary space is unknown, but
scientists estimate an added risk of between 1% and 19% (one estimate is 3.4%) for men to die
of cancer because of the radiation during the journey to Mars and back to Earth. For women the
probability is higher due to their larger glandular tissues.[62]
Landing on Mars[edit]
Mars has a surface gravity 0.38 times that of Earth, and the density of its atmosphere is about
0.6% of that on Earth.[63] The relatively strong gravity and the presence of aerodynamic effects
make it difficult to land heavy, crewed spacecraft with thrusters only, as was done with the Apollo
Moon landings, yet the atmosphere is too thin for aerodynamic effects to be of much help
in aerobraking and landing a large vehicle. Landing piloted missions on Mars would require
braking and landing systems different from anything used to land crewed spacecraft on the Moon
or robotic missions on Mars.[64]
If one assumes carbon nanotube construction material will be available with a strength of 130
GPa then a space elevator could be built to land people and material on Mars.[65] A space elevator
on Phobos has also been proposed.[66]

Equipment needed for colonization[edit]


Colonization of Mars will require a wide variety of equipmentboth equipment to directly provide
services to humans and production equipment used to produce food, propellant, water, energy
and breathable oxygenin order to support human colonization efforts.

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