Flight Fleet Forecast
Flight Fleet Forecast
Flight Fleet Forecast
2035
20172036
2034
2033
Flight Fleet
2032
2031
Forecast 2030
2029
Executive 2028
Summary
2027
2026
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2024
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2020
2019
2018
flightglobal.com 2017
Executive summary
The 2017 Flight Fleet Forecast estimates that some 43,725 new commercial jet and turboprop
aircraft will be delivered into passenger and freighter airline service over the next 20 years.
These are required to serve an expanding market, with forecast annual traffic growth of 4.7%
in the passenger sector and 4% for air cargo between 2017 and 2036.
The total value of these new deliveries, estimated using Flight Forecast 2017-2036 Deliveries
Ascend Consultancys 2017 Base Full-Life Values, is around
$2,940 billion. Base Values are used to estimate future delivery
Single-aisle Twin-aisle
values, since in our view, they are a more pragmatic estimation
of actual business values than the manufacturer list prices often 65% 17%
used in other forecasts. (28,345) (7,700)
9% 7% 2%
(3,780) (3,075) (825)
The whole Asia-Pacific region has become the leader Forecast 2017-2036 Deliveries by Region
in fleet growth and will receive over 40% of deliveries,
including 19% for China alone. The more mature
markets of North America and Europe will take 18% and North America Russia & CIS Africa Asia-Pacific
18% 4% 3% 24%
16% respectively.
The global commercial aircraft fleet in service is expected (8,132) (1,616) (1,203) (10,471)
to increase by 81% to 51,200 aircraft at the end of
2036, including 42,855 passenger jets, 4,470 passenger
turboprops and 3,875 commercial freighter aircraft.
Airbus and Boeing are expected to remain the two largest
commercial aircraft original equipment manufacturers,
between them delivering an estimated 86% by value of
the worlds commercial jet aircraft through 2036. However,
the other manufacturers including Bombardier, Comac,
Embraer, Irkut, Mitsubishi and Sukhoi are expected to
capture an increasingly significant volume of jet demand,
between them accounting for almost $250 billion of
delivery value in the forecast period.
The twin-aisle market will remain the last duopoly in
the commercial aircraft sector for another decade but
Comac and UAC are launching a joint programme for
a 280-seater and there is a potential $100 billion of
additional deliveries forecast for twin-aisles from the mid
to late-2020s from the existing or new OEMs in the sector.
In the smaller sizes, the turboprop market is expected
to be worth $64 billion in deliveries, led by the 70-seat
sector, with potential for a larger 90+-seat size from the
Middle East Latin America Europe China
mid-2020s. Regional Jets will be a $120 billion sector, led
by aircraft of over 90-seats, although a third of value will 7% 9% 16% 19%
come from 70-76-seaters serving the North American (2,950) (4,122) (7,068) (8,163)
markets, which are currently scope-clause constrained.
The Flight Fleet Forecast is a demand-based model which estimates the future fleet,
retirements and deliveries of commercial turboprop and jet aircraft in both the passenger
and cargo sectors, based on detailed analysis of historical trends and developments in the
commercial aviation sector. Drawing upon FlightGlobal and Flight Ascend Consultancys
extensive data and knowledge resource, the forecast projects the evolution of the global
commercial airline fleet and consequent demand for new aircraft through sophisticated
modelling of traffic demand, aircraft retirements, fleet development and the future aircraft
manufacturing scenario.
Changes over time in the relationship between GDP For each region, the historical fleet evolution of turboprops,
and air traffic regional jets, single-aisle and twin-aisle types is analysed in
terms of actual aircraft numbers and total capacity in a series
Relative maturity in certain markets of capacity bands based on seat size. Trends in key
productivity factors average frequency, sector length and
Increased liberalisation in bilateral international markets aircraft seat size can thus be understood and projected
and domestic systems based on historical performance. These trends are used as
a guide to the future, since it is accepted that history does
This analysis delivers an annual forecast of traffic, measured not always provide an accurate picture of what may happen.
in revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs), for each of the Therefore, the forecast also takes into account the known
eight forecast regions. Traffic forecasts are translated into plans of airlines and any perceived change in the regions
capacity forecasts, measured in available seat kilometres airline structure.
(ASKs), through an analysis of long-term passenger load
factor developments. Passenger load factors for 2016 With the total capacity and productivity factors forecast,
averaged 80.3% at the global level (IATA figure), which is the fleet required in each region and aircraft category is
another record high. projected as a product of these forecasts.
About us
With an expert team of 25 analysts based across the globe, Weve been reporting on and collating
Flight Ascend Consultancy provides manufacturers, airlines and
financiers with expert advisory and valuations services to inform
information for the industry for over
multi-million dollar growth, risk advisory and strategy decisions. 100 years, giving you a dependable
source of information and insight.
Part of FlightGlobal, Flight Ascend Consultancy provides unique
value and has been doing so for over 50 years. It has the most
industry experience with the most comprehensive historical
and future aircraft fleet and airline schedule data and an
unprecedented historical aircraft values database, to provide a
unique view on aircraft values and the impact of industry trends.
More than 80
years of combined
industry experience
and expertise
FlightGlobal has been a pioneer of aviation intelligence for over 100 years.
We provide everything you need to know about the aviation industry
from historical aircraft valuations and the world fleet, world schedule and
network to current insight on valuations, industry drivers and future trends.
For more information visit flightglobal.com/about-us
The information contained in our databases and used in this presentation has been assembled from many sources, and whilst
reasonable care has been taken to ensure accuracy, the information is supplied on the understanding that no legal liability
whatsoever shall attach to FlightGlobal, its offices, or employees in respect of any error or omission that may have occurred. Copyright 2017 FlightGlobal