Bekasi Aeromovel LRT FS (FINAL 15-10-2015) PDF
Bekasi Aeromovel LRT FS (FINAL 15-10-2015) PDF
Bekasi Aeromovel LRT FS (FINAL 15-10-2015) PDF
OCTOBER 2015
Table of Contents
Cover Page
Table of Contents
Executive Summary
Introduction
Chapter 5: Conclusion
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Bekasi Aeromovel Feasibility Study
Executive Summary
Bekasis current population and projected growth continues to add strain on its road
networks. The city faces major traffic congestions every day. Connected by a major
expressway, a major rail network and secondary trunk roads, the citys network
infrastructure is no longer sufficient to support the increased number of commuters. for
the rail services limited stations and train frequency results in the system being under-
utilized and not a favourable alternative to the larger user group. Similar to other major
cities in Indonesia the present infrastructure network is not planned with future expansion
in mind resulting in any such efforts being either too costly or not practical.
It is in this context that an effective and efficient elevated light rail transit (LRT) system is
being proposed for the city of Bekasi as a green-field project.
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Bekasi Aeromovel Feasibility Study
For the project to move forward a strong business and economic case only is insufficient
thus requires a credible feasibility study, funding and financing strategy.
This study covers analysing the various factors influencing the viability of such a project
and has taken into consideration current views and opinion from the industry players
where appropriate, the historical performance of the countrys economy, the local
economic climate, socio politics and other information related to infrastructure
investment. Notwithstanding the stated findings is summarized as the opinion of the
author only.
Synopsis
The objective of this study is to qualify the Consortiums proposal in implementing this
project. The primary goals of the project are to reduce the traffic congestion and to
provide a safe, efficient & reliable public transport system in Bekasi.
To achieve this, the project must not only meet its social and technical objectives, but
also be financially viable in lieu of the Consortiums requirement to fund this project as a
Private Funded Initiative (PFI) via the Private Public Partnership (PPP) approach.
Identify a list of hybrid funding options that is able to capture the larger macro
contributors the project is able to generate, while highlighting the key challenges to
their implementation.
Consider how the cash flows generated by these options contribute to the projects
debt servicing and shareholders return on investment. Minimize risk to the projects
substantial funding requirement and the extent to which debt financing is required.
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Bekasi Aeromovel Feasibility Study
The socio-economic benefits. Mega scale projects such as this will require both local
and imported resources. This project is expected to provide new employment
opportunities, support businesses and other indirect benefits which will further
enhance revenues to the city.
Promote the citys growth and development areas via public transport connectivity.
For this or any other public transport scheme to work effectively inter modal
connectivity is very important.
The viability of this project is viewed on the understanding that the Consortium is to
commence this project in year 2015 with construction and commissioning works
taking a period of 36 months for 3 sections. All 3 sections to be completed by 2018
as Bekasi will be the venue for Asia Games. Operation and maintenance of the
system will be by the consortium for the remaining 27years of the concession period.
The Consortium is responsible to provide financing for the entire project, in return it
will Operate, Maintain and collect revenues over a 30 (3+27) year period. The
expected capital investment is USD 180.2 million.
When preparing this report, we have worked closely with officers from PT PPP
Indonesia, PT Cakar Bumi Integrasi, PT Intiadhi Dwimitra Sejati (Aeromovel Indonesia),
Head of Operation for Aeromovel Taman Mini Indonesia Indah (TMII) as well as obtained
traffic and population data of Bekasi from reports prepared by BAPPEDA.
This will be the first time that the aeromovel as a system will be constructed as a public
transport project. One key observation for the promoters of the aeromovel is the need to
identify an endorsement body to regulate the construction and operational requirements
of this public system. A body that imposes regulatory standards (e.g. MOT) and provides
licensing (local government) for the operations of this system when constructed.
The government contributions to the project being considered in this study shall come
from Farebox guarantee and Transit Oriented Developments (TODs).
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Bekasi Aeromovel Feasibility Study
This report is structured as follows:
Chapter 1: The Need addresses the need, population growth, traffic volume projection,
alignment, catchment and ridership along the corridor.
Chapter 2: The Options analysis the light rail transit system, the vehicles, its system
and civil infrastructures.
Chapter 3: The Viability evaluates the financial side of the project, funding options
available, per capita income and ticket fare valuation.
Chapter 4: The Feasibility overall conclusion, assumptions and feasibility of the project
as well as a whole.
-end-
Project Cost:
Aeromovel
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Bekasi Aeromovel Feasibility Study
Introduction
Bekasi (Indonesian: Kota Bekasi) is a city in West and the 2010 population was 2,378,211, making it
Java, Indonesia, located on the eastern border Indonesia's fourth largest city, and second in West
of Jakarta within the Jabodetabek metropolitan region, Java only to Bandung. The latest official estimate (for
as such it serves as a bedroom and factory town for 2014) is 2,510,951, giving a population density of
Jakarta. The borders for this city are Bekasi Regency at 11,900/km2 (31,000/sq mi). Substantial urban areas
the north, Bogor Regency and Depok City at the south, surround the city. It serves as a commuter
at the west is East Jakarta, at the east is Bekasi city for Jakarta, although it has notable trade, business
Regency. It is Indonesia's most populated suburb. It and processing industries. These are primarily clustered
has an area of 210.49 square kilometres (81.27 sq mi) in the area of Karawang. Bekasi City is divided into
12 districts ('kecamatan'):
Population
District
(2010 census)
West Belasi (Bekasi Barat) 272,557
South Bekasi (Bekasi Selatan) 203,654
Rawalumbu 208,334
Pondok Melati 128,934
North Bekasi (Bekasi Utara) 308,593
Mustikajaya 159,773
Jl. Tol Jakarta-Cikampek Medan Satria 161,162
Jatisampura 103,715
Jatiasih 198,444
East Bekasi (Bekasi Timur) 247,357
Bantargebang 95,845
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Bekasi Aeromovel Feasibility Study
The Aeromovel Feasibility Study of Bekasi
The study was conducted by analysing the following Operational feasibility: feasibility related to corridor
aspects: analysis, traffic capacity on aeromovel routes, and
aeromovel travel scheduling in accordance to
The Need demands on the corridors lane.
Project feasibility: The city of Bekasi as an Financial feasibility: feasibility related to finance for
extension of Greater Jakarta, today serves as a the project. It covers calculation of investment funds
residential enclave with the larger population need to execute this project, estimation of
commuting to work outside the city. With the citys transportation service fare excepted by the public,
constraint road infrastructure, this city faces major and calculation of financial ratios (IRR, NPV,
traffic congestions. This city is also connected with
Payback Period).
a rail line, however the current running services
and limited stations is insufficient to relief and
distribute the traffic. Points Agreed and Substantive Goals
The socio-economic benefits:- this project will also The report has also adapted pointers that have
induce job opportunities, tax enhancement when been agreed in discussions between the promoters
the city is able to provide amenities and benefits to and the authority. Points agreed regarding the
the people. aeromovel system in Bekasi as follows:
Promote the citys growth and development 1. The assessment framework must not only
areas via public transport connectivity. comprise a study in terms of demand, but also
comprise substantive matters (not only demand
The viability of this project is viewed on the analysis, but also macro analysis). It has to have a
understanding that the Consortium is to execute substantive perception that starts with:
this project in year 2015 over a period of 36
months in 3 sections. All 3 sections to be a) The success of aeromovel realization as a
completed by end year 2018. new symbol of Bekasi, Jakarta.
b) Understanding that the income will not only
The Consortium is responsible to provide financing origin from ticket sales
for the entire project, in return it will Operate, c) The impact of multiplier effect.
Maintain and collect revenues over a 3+27 year
period (3yrs for construction). The expected capital 2. Based on this statement, the assessment
investment is USD 180.2 million. framework to study the primary data must be
practical and in accordance with the conservative
Project feasibility: the feasibility related to the calculation and macro assessment.
benefits gained from building the specified
aeromovel corridors in order to overcome the 3. Aeromovel is a medium-low capacity
estimated rise of demand in the future. (9000pphpd) mass transportation rail type vehicle
riding a hollow guideway (elevated train) above the
ground. The vehicle is driven by pressurized air
Technical feasibility: feasibility related to produced by power blowers located strategically
governments readiness in managing the under the guideways. Operating as a complete
aeromovel system on the specified routes, such as system with multiple train sets this aeromovel
all forms of licenses and other legal aspects, and system can transport up to 162,000 passengers a
impacts toward society and local environment. day.
Organizational and human resource feasibility: the 2. 4. Planned as a feeder service the aeromovel
internal readiness of the local government in will function as a downtown transport, tourist
developing its aeromovel project, both from the attraction, and public transportation with direct
side of organization and human resource. connectivity to other intermodal transport services
such as the commuter, the planned LRT and the
intercity bus services.
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Bekasi Aeromovel Feasibility Study
5. The design of the aeromovel structures have
been carefully developed particularly the placement
of columns and structural foundations. Critical are
sections parallel to the waterway south of Harapan
Indah up to the Summarecon Bridge flyover. Along
this alignment columns are to be located along the
narrow embankments of the waterway.
-end-
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Bekasi Aeromovel Feasibility Study
The Aeromovel FS Framework of Bekasi
To meet the objectives, scope and expected outputs methodology, and outputs, where every activity in the
from the Aeromovel feasibility Study of Bekasi series supports one another, thus is expected to
Province will use a development framework that create an informative and comprehensive feasibility
consists of eight series of activities as shown in study.
Figure 1.2. Every activity has its own objectives,
Transportation NO
Projection Feasible ?
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Bekasi Aeromovel Feasibility Study
Chapter 1:
The Need
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Bekasi Aeromovel Feasibility Study
1.1 Population Growth
The population of Bekasi City in the next 5 years, 53.90426
2027
assuming a growth rate of 2.83% per year, will
increase to nearly 1.5 times more than the total 56.91294
2028
population of 2013 (Table 1.1). The population of
2,592,819 people in 2013 is estimated to become 59.92163
2029
3,152,760 people in 2020. Along with the economic
growth and income per capita that rises from year 62.93032
2030
to year, it has resulted in product and service
demands increase including traveling to work, Table 1.1 : Projection of Bekasi City Population in the
shops, and leisure places in town. Among the Year 2012-2020;
contributing factor is the high number of personal
vehicles on the road.
Percentage (%)
Years
2009
0.66
2010
4.46
2011
8.77
2012
11.78
2013
14.79
2014
17.80
2015
20.81
2016
23.82
2017
26.83
2018
32.84
2020
35.85
2021
38.86
2022
41.87
2023
44.88
2024
47.89
2025
50.89557
2026
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Bekasi Aeromovel Feasibility Study
1.2 Traffic Growth
This sub section presents graphs showing the 79.77 170.89
2028
volume of vehicles) on each type of vehicle being
surveyed. These data is used to find out about the 2029
81.76 178.03
traffic load on each year. The data was gathered on
five different observation periods and classified into 2030
83.75 185.16
two transportation modes.
61.85 106.66
2019
63.84 113.80
2020
65.83 120.93
2021
67.82 128.07
2022
69.81 135.21
2023
71.81 142.34
2024
73.80 149.48
2025
75.79 156.62
2026 Figure 1.3: Traffic Condition in Bekasi
77.78 163.75
2027
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Bekasi Aeromovel Feasibility Study
1.3 The Citys Connectivity
Road Transport
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Bekasi Aeromovel Feasibility Study
The Project Alignment
The proposed alignment route of Bekasi Aeromovel a) Harapan Indah ST01
has a total distance of approximately 12.0 km
starting from the northern side of Bekasi at This station is located north of the city center where
Harapan Indah housing development towards the new properties are being developed. The proposed
southern part ending at Kemang Pratama. The station location is integrated with a major busway
alignment is proposed to have 17 stations located route for commuters to Jakarta. Connectivity and
at several key locations such as shopping malls, ridership will have maximum benefits with the
stadium, government offices, schools, hospitals, connectivity to the busway.
residential areas and integration with other public
It is observed that a number of properties in the
transport systems.
area remain vacant, a location ideal for planning of
the train depot.
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Bekasi Aeromovel Feasibility Study
Figure 1.8 The irrigation route Figure 1.9: The telecommunication Pylon
Key observations:
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Bekasi Aeromovel Feasibility Study
Overheads are identified to be PLNs Extra High System performance:
Voltage Power Transmission Lines (SUTET)
crossing at Rawa Bambu Bulak. Some stations are also located at low catchment
areas, such as at non-high density residential,
For further safety, a tunnel like structure can be further from main road, public access and attraction
built on the tracks below the cables to act as a places.
Faraday Cage, further shielding the system against
effects of electrical induction and protection in the A thorough review is required on the current
event any of the cables above the tracks give way. proposal to justify necessity of stations. Example,
stations 01 to 08 is spread along a length
approximately 5km of the alignment; resulting in a
station every 825 meters, relatively a short distance
for effective rail type networks. Reducing the
number of stations will not only reduce cost but also
the effectiveness of the system travel time. The
industry standard is to locate stations at least 1km
apart. This will enable other public transport
services to co-exist and support the entire system
of public transport in the city.
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Bekasi Aeromovel Feasibility Study
d) Bekasi Railway Station Station 10
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Bekasi Aeromovel Feasibility Study
Recommendation is to conduct the construction This route passes through a number of shopping
works during outside operation hours, such as after malls namely Bekasi Cyber Park, Metropolitan Mall,
midnight etc. The construction of this particular Mega Bekasi Hypermall, Giant Hypermart, Bekasi
station is in the projects critical path, highly Square Mall, Hotels and Living Plaza. Traffic
recommended to have a dedicated project density is very high along the main trunk road Jalan
management team as well as to commence the Achmad Yani. Strategic station placement is
construction as soon as possible. A long 30m span important to ensure ease of access to passengers
for guideway could be used to cross over the and continuous ridership.
existing railway catenary power lines.
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Bekasi Aeromovel Feasibility Study
Planning the alignment:
The entire alignment can be identified in 3 sections It is proposed to have an interchange facility at
for the ease of planning. the beginning and end stations of this route, i.e
Station 10 and Station 14.
Section 1 as shown by the yellow line below has
a length of approx. 4.25km will start from Station 09 To further ease the traffic grid lock, the local
(Summarecon City) or Station 10 (connectivity with government can enforce laws to limit traffic
railway station), passing thru Kantor Walikota, accessibility to central business district, i.e only
central business district, shopping malls and ends public transport and motorcycles are allowed to
up at the other side towards the next residential enter, or enforce toll charges for other vehicles.
area Kemang Pratama.
Major crossing:
Sec 1
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Bekasi Aeromovel Feasibility Study
g) Jl. Siliwangi - Kemang Pratama Station 15 Alternative option:
to 17
Another proposed alignment route would be to
continue along the main road Jl. Achmad Yani, Jl.
Cut Matia and Jl. IR H. Juanda, instead of going
south to Kemang Pratama.
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Bekasi Aeromovel Feasibility Study
h) TOD Consideration
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Bekasi Aeromovel Feasibility Study
Chapter 2:
The Options
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Bekasi Aeromovel Feasibility Study
2.0 The Aeromovel
2.1 The Aeromovel System & Operations vehicles to climb steep gradients up to 10-12%
and traverse sharp curves with a radius as low as
25 meters (82 Feet)
The combination of pneumatic propulsion and Train coupling is possible but most of the time is
non-axle wheel design permits Aeromovel not required due to no propulsion equipment is
located on the train. Push, pull, or push and pull
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Bekasi Aeromovel Feasibility Study
principle will be used to rescue the stranded However, a Section Isolation Valve (SIV) is
trains. Manually pushing the trains are also installed along each guideway section allow the
possible due to the lightweight body of the trains. operation of multiple vehicles on the same track
by allowing each of those vehicles to be
Passenger evacuation during emergency will be controlled independently by splitting the line
done via the front cab-mask door. Passengers into propulsion sections.
able to walk along the track to the nearest station
as there is very low voltage on the tracks.
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Bekasi Aeromovel Feasibility Study
typical single car can carry up to 150 passengers
per car. Vehicle length is approximately 12.5
meters for a single car. Average design speed is
up to 80km/h.
2.4 Switches
Figure 5.9: Aeromovel Swtich Operations The vehicles will be fitted with roof mounted
HVAC units. These will provide maximum
Switches are important to allow movement into comfort at a minimum cost. The HVAC units and
depot and turning at end station tail tracks. The auxiliary equipment will be supplied VDC power
switching system is possible and similar to a through the steel tracks and steel wheel contacts.
conventional rail for the steel track section. On
the lower section, the air duct flow will be
controlled via valves installed to control the
power delivery to which beam section.
2.5 Vehicle
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Bekasi Aeromovel Feasibility Study
System Communication for Bekasi Aeromovel international standards for ease of future
shall mainly comprise of the following sub- expansions and replacement. It shall comprise of
systems: computers, servers, workstations, remote
terminal units, modems and other equipment
Passenger Information System (PIS) and software based on state-of-the-art
Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition technology.
System (SCADA)
Open Transport Network (OTN) 2.7.3 Optical Transport Network (OTN)
Radio System
Closed Circuit Television (CCTV) Open Transport Network is a flexible private
communication network, based on the fiber optic
2.7.1 Passenger Information System (PIS) technology. It is a networking technology that
aims at transporting a number of communication
Passenger Information System is an electronic protocols over an optical fiber and is a mix of
information system which provides real-time Transmission and Access. This includes serial
passenger information. It shall include both protocols (e.g. RS232) as well as telephony,
predictions about arrival and departure times, as audio, Ethernet, video and video-over-IP (via M-
well as information about the nature and causes JPEG, MPEG2/4, H.264 or DVB).
of disruptions. It shall use both physically within
a transportation hub and remotely using a web
browser or mobile device 2.7.4 Uninterruptible Power System (UPS)
PIS shall provide a powerful framework on which An Uninterruptible Power Supply (UPS) system
telecommunications grade high availability voice is proposed to provide essential power to all
applications can be implemented. The solution critical communication equipment in the
shall require various components such as passenger stations, Depots and OCC. Critical
Amplifiers, PA equipment, and communications systems and equipment requiring UPS backup
and control devices to be installed at locations will be determined during the Preliminary
where PA and DVA capabilities are required. Design stage.
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Bekasi Aeromovel Feasibility Study
2.9 Civil Works The elevated guideway can accommodate
gradients up to 12%, and tight horizontal curves
2.9.1 Guideway Beam with radii as low as 25 meters.
The Aeromovels guideway consists of a pre- The guideway shall remain safe and functional
fabricated box beam, which supports the track under all design load conditions. The guideway
and vehicles, and through which the air and track shall be designed to reasonably prevent
circulates. a train from leaving the guideway. End-of-line
buffers shall be provided to protect against train
For rapid construction and minimum disruption overruns.
to surrounding activities, the guideway is erected
in pre-fabricated modular sections in pre Passengers and public shall not have access to
stressed concrete or steel, which may be readily the guideway. An emergency evacuation plan
lifted into place by day or night. shall be developed and implemented to ensure
the capability for safe and timely passenger
evacuation is provided under all conditions.
2.9.2 Stations
The stations for Bekasi Aeromovel shall be
designed to the approved Railway Scheme and
requirements of the local authority building By-
laws.
Typical station designs are shown in figures
Figure 5.14: Civil Construction of Aeromovel below. An island based station would be a good
System option as it is normally cheaper and less space
consumption.
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Bekasi Aeromovel Feasibility Study
Architectural Image and System identity
Design Intent
In producing a suitable and contextually
correct architectural image the following
design objectives and intents have been used:
A modern architecture that incorporates local
architectural themes.
To create elements which are standardized
and modular enabling easy production of
component or building materials. Also
facilitating maintenance and replacement of
parts.
Usage of architectural language that results
in a design which is clean and uncluttered
while maintaining a certain degree of
detailing and richness. To create an
architectural concept and detail with an
Figure 5.15: Typical Station Design enduring quality.
To establish a scheme which can coexist
along with the local context to the extent
possible
Station Access To create sensible details which are suitable
for extreme climatic conditions
Station access shall address the pedestrian
movement to ensure easy entrance identification Contextual Consideration
and direct accessibility. It normally comprises of
up and down escalators, stairs and elevators. As Therefore, the architectural treatment shall be
the station locations are situated within the modern and forward looking translating the
busiest built up areas of the city, it is important ancient architecture feature in to the modern.
to identify the available space to locate the The building scale and treatment must reach a
entrance component in a manner that it will not harmonious balance with the surrounding
hinder pedestrian traffic on the existing urban context. Faade element shall reflect clear
pedestrian path. architectural intentions.
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Bekasi Aeromovel Feasibility Study
2.9.3 Depot Functional Requirement and Facilities at
the Depot
The Aeromovel system maintenance facility will On-line stabling concepts for trains have been
be provided at the Depot which will include the provided for stabling only as well as in
following key elements: combination with short-turn facilities. These
designs also have at least two independent access
Purpose-built maintenance facilities to routes to the guideway.
completely maintain the Aeromovel System in
the long term; Trains will be driven in the depot up to
maximum 25 km/h. Trains movements will be
Workshops for the maintenance of trains; authorized by workshop supervision through the
Depot Control Center (DCC). Depot control is
Workshop for the maintenance of guideway responsible for train movements in the depot
and station infrastructure including equipment between entering the depots at a handover
installations; section until leaving the depots to enter service at
handover section.
Equipment to be installed at the depots,
including tools and test equipment; A section of guideway beam for testing of trains
after major work will be identified along the
Facilities for Operations Control Centre mainline near to depot. Train washing plants will
(OCC), administrative functions and depot be provided in convenient locations outside the
control; main depot building and without additional train
movements where possible.
E&M Systems building services;
In the depot a paint shop will be provided for
Service facilities for personnel, including complete repainting of trains, with the necessary
canteen, shower and locker rooms; facilities and equipment for preparation of body
work.
Security arrangements.
Likewise, the depot will contain a workshop and
The depot shall include the following: storage areas as well vehicle track for
infrastructure maintenance vehicles, equipped
Stabling lines for all trains for self-propelled travel on the guideway for
Daily inspection and train preparation in the inspection, repairs, and installation work.
stabling area
Daily external cleaning of all trains Depot layout will be designed for internal train
Daily internal cleaning in the stabling area movements without affecting the trains for
Transfer tracks revenue service on the guideway.
Monthly inspections/light maintenance of
trains
Heavy manual external cleaning of trains 2.10 Safety
Heavy maintenance, overhaul component
exchange and repair for all trains on all Lines Vehicles travel on an elevated and exclusive
All infrastructure maintenance for all Lines guideway, eliminating grade crossing congestion
Component repair facilities and accidents.
Depot control and administration
Power supply and general electrical supply The propulsion concept has the intrinsic safety
Primary and secondary spares storage and feature of an air buffer between propulsion plates
distribution which helps to prevent collision between
vehicles.
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Bekasi Aeromovel Feasibility Study
Automation includes redundant and high Civil Structures
reliability systems. Operation of vehicles is
supervised by an automatic train protection Civil works: All civil structures are to be
system. designed to last 100 years and requirements
for Quake Zone 4 (to refer local earth quake
Dual propulsion and friction emergency brakes standard).
are provided. Some stations should be potentially
convertible to TODs, advertisement boards
Emergency exits at both ends of the vehicle allow can be placed vehicles, pillars, stations and
easy passenger evacuation. isolated areas.
The stations shall be wheelchair/Disabled
The guideway itself acts as a passenger escape
friendly with provisions for lifts to be
route.
included.
Two-way communication between vehicle and
E&M Wayside Systems:
central control post is standard.
Communications: Basic Radio System, CCTV,
PA system and other basic systems should be
Friction brakes on the vehicle are not required
sufficient.
except for parking at stations and are essentially
redundant because the vehicles can be stopped Power Requirements: 150kW for blowers
using the propulsion system alone. Signalling System: Basic driverless system.
2.11 Summary
Vehicle
Car Life: Major component such as car body,
bogie frame etc shall have 30 years life with
scheduled maintenance of every 5 years or
when required.
Safety Requirements: Passenger Evacuation
shall be from exits at both ends of the vehicle
onto the guideway beam. The passengers will
then require to walk to stations or rescued via
fire brigade ladder.
Train to train coupling shall be considered for
situations requiring this method of rescue. A
work car can be proposed to assist with O&M
issues.
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Bekasi Aeromovel Feasibility Study
Chapter 3:
Viability
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Bekasi Aeromovel Feasibility Study
3.0 Per Capita Income
Bekasis macro-economy are in industry, trade and
services. Those three sectors continue to contribute
greatly to the formation of the Gross Regional
Domestic Product (GRDP) GRDP data are usually
presented as time series data so that the
development of each sector can be evaluated
whether it decreases or increases
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Bekasi Aeromovel Feasibility Study
LAPANGAN USAHA 2010 2011 2012** 2013**
Industrial Origin (%) (%) (%) (%)
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
1. Pertanian / Agriculture 0.86 0,82 0,77 0,73
4. Listrik. Gas dan Air Bersih / Electricity. Gas and Water Supply 4.06 4.20 4.27 4.31
6. Perdagangan. Hotel dan Restoran / Trade. Hotel and Restaurant 28.59 28.86 29.20 29.59
7. Pengangkutan dan Komunikasi / Transportation and Communication 10.02 10.30 9.96 9.84
8. Keuangan. Persewaan dan Jasa Perusahaan / Finance. Dwelling and Business Services 4.18 4.25 4.32 4.37
100.0
JUMLAH / Total 100.00 100.00 100,00
0
Table 3.3: Percentage Distribution of Gross Regional Domestic Product of Bekasi Municipality at 2000 Constant Price2010 2013 (%)
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Bekasi Aeromovel Feasibility Study
3.1 Ticket Price
The table above shows the ticket price for various public transport modes in Bekasi. The highest
ticket price is the city taxi going at USD 0.22 per km. This is similar for most cities globally as taxis
having the highest fare charged. The rest of the public transport system has almost similar rate per
km which is between USD 0.03 - 0.05 per km. The current in-trend transportation Go-Jek is
charged at USD 0.30 per km.
However there are different trade-offs for different systems, such as low comfort level, punctuality
and availability. The Consortiums proposed ticket price of USD 0.60 or IDR 8,000 initial rate is
competitive with the tariffs charged by other modes of public transport at approximately USD 0.05
per km. The Aeromovel system offers better value for money given the high level of comfort
provided, air-conditioned, ease of access, high punctuality and availability.
The table below compares the ridership, fares vs operating costs, and fare costs per km between
urban train systems across Asia. From the table, maintaining higher ridership is important to
sustain the operation and covering the other expenses and costs related to the train system.
However some systems need to be subsidized as the fare box revenue cant cover high operation
cost shown in city of Bangkok and Seoul.
The Consortiums proposed ticket price of USD 0.60 or IDR 8,000 of approximately 12km is
competitive and comparable with the fares charged by other rail transportation systems across
Asia. However current fares vs. operating costs are yielding an extraordinary value.
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Bekasi Aeromovel Feasibility Study
It is advised to refine the operation costs and include other factor such as refurbishment of the
trains, fleet expansion program and upgrading the system in incoming years to maintain the
readiness and operability of the Aeromovels in the future.
A factor to be considered is that the farebox collection shall form the primary source of repayment
for financing the project. Based on the calculations in Chapter 4, we find that the optimal average
ticket price recommended should be USD 0.75 or IDR 10,200 to ensure an acceptable rate of
return and payback period.
Ratio of
Operation
Ratio of fares to Length Max. Ridership fares to Averag Fare per
Commenc
operating cost (km) perday operating e Fare km
e
costs (USD) (USD/km)
KL Monorail 8.6 n/a 2003 0.61 0.071
72,000
BEKASI 12.0 127,150 374% 2018 0.74 0.050
KL Ampang Line 27.0 n/a 1996 1.02 0.038
150,000
Bangkok Subway 20.0 90% 2004 0.73 0.037
240,000
Bangkok Sky Train 26.0 600,000 143% 1999 0.76 0.029
Osaka (Hankyu
138.4 n/a 123% 1907 3.21 0.023
Railway)
Osaka (OMTB) 137.8 137% 1933 2.97 0.022
2,464,000
Tokyo Metro 195.0 170% 1927 1.45 0.007
8,700,000
Singapore (SMRT) 99.0 125% 1987 0.68 0.007
2,400,000
Taipei (MRT) 101.0 119% 1996 0.69 0.007
4,730,000
Hong Kong 218.0 186% 1979 1.29 0.006
4,552,000
SMRT Corp (Seoul) 152.0 n/a 71% 1970 0.65 0.004
Seoul Metro 135.0 81% 1974 0.46 0.003
9,800,000
Beijing Subway 527.0 59.50% 1969 1.56 0.003
9,278,600
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Bekasi Aeromovel Feasibility Study
d) Bank Loans
3.2 Funding Options
Loan from banks shall also be explored.
a) Farebox Collection However several factors need to be considered
such as the % interest rate, payback period, tax
Revenues collected from ticket sales shall be incentives,
used to recover the project cost over a period of
time. Although it may take some time to recover
the total cost, some sections of the project can e) Taxes
be recovered through this method such as for
Rolling Stocks and certain wayside sub- The government can implement the
systems. This method is suitable for Design infrastructure/transportation tax in the ticket
Build Operate Transfer (DBOT) models. price that again will be used as funding for the
Payback options can be done to the operator project. The tax imposed shall be returned to
through fixed payments based on completed the fund either in 100%, 50% or any amount as
trips per direction, train availability or train agreed and negotiated with the government.
punctuality.
f) Infrastructure Bond
b) TODs
Infrastructure funds provide the opportunity to
Stations with land areas, commercial potential invest in essential public assets, such as toll
and strategic locations can be coupled with roads, airports and rail facilities.
Transit Oriented Developments (TOD). The
land and property values will increase multiple They are often attractive to investors looking for
folds once the area is served by rail transit. predictable returns, as infrastructure projects
Sales and rentals from commercial are typically characterised by low levels of
developments shall be used to fund the civil competition and high barriers to entry. Some
infrastructure cost such as stations, guideway have the prices they charge subject to
beams and integrated depot-commercial government regulation, with price increases
buildings. Profits from sales can be used to requiring approval.
subsidize some cost of the project.
Infrastructure funds are managed by specialist
c) Annual Budget fund managers, who make investment
decisions on behalf of investors. Returns from
Another funding option would be through infrastructure funds usually combine capital
annual budgets allocated by the local/federal growth and dividend income in varying
government for the public transport proportions.
development and upgrade. The funds can be
utilised for other project components which are In growth-orientated infrastructure funds, there
not directly related to TODs and farebox may not be stable income in the near term but
collections. The amount of funding available the fund seeks to achieve capital growth in the
from this option depends on the policy, priority medium term. Infrastructure funds that generate
and allocation by the local government, but steady income streams tend to invest in more
normally it is limited due to other pertaining mature assets
priorities to other sectors. The citys
Transportation Plan will also affect the
availability of this fund.
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Bekasi Aeromovel Feasibility Study
Chapter 4:
Feasibility
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Bekasi Aeromovel Feasibility Study
4.1 Assumptions & Financial Calculations
4.1.1 PPHPD and Headway Assumptions
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Bekasi Aeromovel Feasibility Study
Project Cost Breakdown
Scope of Works USD
Aeromovel
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Bekasi Aeromovel Feasibility Study
Scenario 1 assumptions for the feasibility analysis:
1) The average daily ridership shall be calculated as an average at 78% from max capacity,
equivalent to 127,150 pax per day.
2) The farebox collection is calculated based on average ticket price spent by the
passengers, which is USD 0.75 (IDR 10,200).
3) Based on 127,150 ridership, capacity projection is Year 1 50%, Year 2 70% and
Year 3 onwards 100% for 30 years period.
4) We assume limit is achieved when LRT line comes into service.
The calculations from the above assumptions yield the figures below:
10,200 Rupiah
Average ticket price assumption
0.75 USD
Price increase 5% every 5 years
System Max. Capacity 162,562 pax/day
Maximum daily ridership applied @78% 127,150 pax/day
50% year 1
Projected capacity on ridership 70% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
Debt Tenure 8 years
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Bekasi Aeromovel Feasibility Study
4.1.5 Conclusion and Moving Forward
1. We assume that financial institutions are able to finance the project up to 70% with
interest rate of 4%. i.e. 70% x 180.2mil = USD126.1mil.
3. To allow fare adjustments of 5% every 5 years starting at IDR 10,200 end-to-end per
trip.
5. The government contributions to the project shall come from Farebox guarantee and
Transit Oriented Developments (TODs).
6. To form a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) company consist of the local government and
the Consortium to execute the project.
7. Possible early exit of private investor and transfer of assets in entirety to local
government with continued recurring income.
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Bekasi Aeromovel Feasibility Study
4.1.6 Risk Assessment
No. Description
1 Economy, Social and Politics
2 Government Approvals and Regulations
3 Foreign Exchange Rate
4 Systems Technology
5 Financial Banking Regulations, Interest Rates
6 Funding Facilities
7 Government SOE and Contribution TOD
8 Consortium Partners Due Diligence
9 Traffic Study
10 Light Rail Transit Future
11 Alignment
12 Ticket Pricing
13 O&M
14 Human Resources
15 Spares and Warranties
Risk Mapping
The identification of risk above is classified according to most likely impact the project as
below:-
Impact Catastrophic V 10 2 1, 5 7, 12
Significant IV 9 3, 6, 13
Moderate III 11 4, 15
Minor II 14 8
Insignificant I 2
Unlikely Moderate Likely
Probability Low I II III IV High V
Table 4.1: Risk Map
From the mapping above, the risks are further classified to identify the mitigation actions
required:-
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Bekasi Aeromovel Feasibility Study
Risk mitigation action
Risk
Mitigation Actions
nos.
Monitor close rapport with ministries, presidential decrees via social persuasion
1
and negotiation
Qualify government policies and regulations favourable throughout the concession
2
period
Include Authority and banks to counter balance the forex effect to favour the
3
concessionaire
To qualify the systems have 'proof of concept' and international-licensed agencies
4
certifications
Investors and banks to understand and confirm full commitment funding the
6
project throughout the funding period
Government must contribute via strategic TOD and presence in the concession
7
committed as public purpose project
Authority DisHub traffic report and foreign endorsed review report to certify
9
viability of ridership and catchment
Authority DisHub traffic report and foreign endorsed review report to certify
10
viability of ridership and catchment
Due diligence with Authority Land Dept. to check land status, ownership,
11
partnership with landowner, land value before/post development
Compare pricing with other local transport modes and similar modes i.e. LRT in
12
other countries to be on par to justify to government and banks
To qualify from actual O&M costing from similar aeromovel systems in Brazil, and
13
compare to other LRT O&M costs and revenues
Training and Retaining staff, transfer staff from railway KAI, expats for key
14
positions
Warranties, parts and funds allocation at least 5% of total asset and lock-in
15
service works contract up to 3 years post-DLP
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Bekasi Aeromovel Feasibility Study
4.1.7 Conclusion
The provisions of DisHub Traffic report around Bekasi projected to 2030, and UniAsia report on
Indonesia Railway 2014, validate the need to upgrade and improve the railway and introduce
light rail transit systems infrastructure in Indonesia.
The system provider, Aeromovel Indonesia and Aeromovel Brazil are responsible to provide
proof the system is fit-for-purpose for public use.
The project initial costing of USD 180.21 Million is a manageable sum for banking institution to
consider favourably for funding with a definite time limit to complete by 2018 Asia Games.
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Bekasi Aeromovel Feasibility Study
Disclaimer
This document contains information obtained or derived from a variety of third party
sources as indicated within the document. Scomi has not sought to establish the
Should any person other than the intended parties obtain access to and read this document, such
1. The reader of this document understands that the work performed by Scomi
and was performed exclusively for their benefit and use. The document
may therefore not include all matters relevant to the reader. The document
is provided for general guidance only and does not constitute investment or
2. The reader agrees that Scomi accepts no liability (including for negligence) to
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Bekasi Aeromovel Feasibility Study