International Trade Theory Capital Knowledge Economic Structure Money and Prices Over Time
International Trade Theory Capital Knowledge Economic Structure Money and Prices Over Time
International Trade Theory Capital Knowledge Economic Structure Money and Prices Over Time
1
International
Trade Theory
Capital, Knowledge,
Economic Structure, Money,
and Prices over Time
1 23
International Trade Theory
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Preface
Wei-Bin Zhang
APU, February 2008
Contents
Preface v
Appendix 314
A.8.1 Capital Accumulation and Services in a
Multi-Country Economy 314
A.8.2 A Two-Country Model of Optimal Growth 319
References 483
Index 507
1 International Trade and Trade Theory
Mercantilism was the mean stream of economics throughout the 16th to the
18th century.2 Belief in mercantilism began to fade in the late 18th century.
The word comes from the Latin word “mercari”, which means “to run a
trade”. Mercantilism holds that the prosperity of a nation is dependent on
its supply of capital,3 and the global volume of capital is not changed ac-
cording to international trade. Capital can be increased mainly through a
positive balance of trade with other nations. Hence, national wealth and
power are best served by encouraging exports and collecting precious met-
als in return. To govern the national economy properly, the government
should advance these goals by adopting protectionist policy. The so-called
mercantile system is based on the idea that exports should be encouraged,
imports discouraged through the use of tariffs. Different mercantilists were
concerned with different ideas without a unified framework. Nevertheless,
a common viewpoint is that international trade is considered as a zero-sum
game, where a gain by one nation results in a loss of another. Hence, any
system of policies that benefit one nation would of course harm the other.4
By the late eighteenth century, classical economists such as David
Hume and Adam Smith began to criticize mercantilism. In his Political
Discourses (1752), David Hume attached the mercantilist idea that a nation
could continue to accumulate specie without any repercussions to its inter-
national competitive position. He reasoned that as the nation experienced
trade surplus and accumulated more gold, money supply should be in-
creased. The increase of money supply would result in rises in prices and
wages. The increases in prices and wages would increase imports and re-
duce exports.5 Hence, the competitiveness of the country with a surplus
would be reduced. Hume hence argued that it is impossible to continue to
maintain a positive balance of trade in the long run. In The Wealth of Na-
tion, Adam Smith refuted the idea that the wealth of a nation is measured
did not present a scheme for the ideal economy, as Adam Smith did for classical eco-
nomics.
3 It should be noted that “capital” in this theory is represented by bullion (gold
or silver) held by the state. Today, we measure the wealth of nation by human,
man-made, and natural resources.
4 Although Adam Smith supported that mercantilism advocated for strict controls
over the economy, mercantilist domestic policy is actually fragmented than its trade
policy.
5 Hume assumed that changes in the money supply would affect prices rather
6 See Negishi (1972), Dixit and Norman (1980), and Jones (1979).
7 See Mill (1848) and Marshall (1890).
4 1 International Trade and Trade Theory
two, between each country and the world) must in the aggregate pay for
each other, and must therefore be exchanged for one another at such values
as will be compatible with the equation of the international demand” (Mill,
1848: 596). Mill initiated the theory of reciprocal demand which is one of
the earliest examples of general equilibrium analysis in trade theory.
The Ricardian model and Heckscher-Ohlin model are two basic models
of trade and production. They provide the pillars upon which much of pure
theory of international trade rests. The so-called Heckscher-Ohlin model
has been one of the dominant models of comparative advantage in modern
economics. The Heckscher-Ohlin theory emphasizes the differences be-
tween the factor endowments of different countries and differences be-
tween commodities in the intensities with which they use these factors.
The basic model deals with a long-term general equilibrium in which the
two factors are both mobile between sectors and the cause of trade is dif-
ferent countries having different relative factor endowments. This theory
examines the impact of trade on factor use and factor rewards. The theory
is different from the Ricardian model which isolates differences in tech-
nology between countries as the basis for trade. In the Heckscher-Ohlin
theory costs of production are endogenous in the sense that they are differ-
ent in the trade and autarky situations, even when all countries have access
to the same technology for producing each good. This model has been a
main stream of international trade theory. According to Ethier (1974), this
theory has four “core proportions”. In the simple case of two-commodity
and two-country world economy, we have these four propositions (which
are of course held under certain conditions) as follows: (1) factor-price
equalization theorem by Lerner (1952) and Samuelson (1948, 1949), stat-
ing that free trade in final goods alone brings about complete international
equalization of factor prices; (2) Stolper-Samuelson theory by Stolper and
Samuelson (1941), saying that an increase in the relative price of one
commodity raises the real return of the factor used intensively in producing
that commodity and lowers the real return of the other factor; (3) Rybczyn-
ski theorem by Rybczynski (1955), stating that if commodity prices are
held fixed, an increase in the endowment of one factor causes a more than
proportionate increase in the output of the commodity which uses that fac-
tor relatively intensively and an absolute decline in the output of the other
commodity; and (4) Heckscher-Ohlin theorem by Heckscher (1919) and
Ohlin (1933),8 stating that a country tends to have a bias towards produc-
ing and exporting the commodity which uses intensively the factor with
which it is relatively well-endowed.
It may be true to say that most of the pure theory of international trade
emerged from Ricardo’s Principles. The further development of the sub-
ject by Mill, Marshall and Edgeworth remained largely within the bounds
set by Ricardo. Since then, there had been much attention focused on the
determination of the terms of trade by reciprocal demand within frame-
works of many goods, countries and factors under various forms of inter-
vention. As mentioned by Findlay (1984), one topic that was almost en-
tirely absent from the pure theory of international trade was any
consideration of the connection between economic growth and interna-
tional trade in classical literature of economic theory. Almost all the trade
models developed before the 1960s are static in the sense that the supplies
of factors of production are given and do not vary over time; the classical
Ricardian theory of comparative advantage and the Heckscher-Ohlin the-
ory are static since labor and capital stocks (or land) are assumed to be
given and constant over time. Although Marshall held that it is important
to study international trade in order to be clear of the causes which deter-
mine the economic progresses of nations, it has only been in the last three
or four decades that trade theory has made some systematical treatment of
endogenous capital accumulation or technological changes in the context
of international economics.
The consideration of endogenous capital or technological change in
trade theory was influenced by development of neoclassical growth theory
with capital accumulation and growth theory with endogenous knowledge.
This order of development of economic theory is reasonable as it is only
after we are able to explain how national economies operate that we can
effectively model international economies. When economists had no com-
pact framework to explain national economies, it is hard to imagine how
international economies could be analyzed comprehensively. A national
economy may be perceived as a special case of the global economy in the
sense that the global economy is national when it consists of identical mul-
tiple national economies. Since there was no compact framework of na-
tional economies with endogenous capital or/and knowledge, it is reason-
able to know that there was no compact framework to analyze economic
growth and international trade.
Trade models with capital movements are originated by MacDougall
(1960) and Kemp (1961), even though these models were limited to static
and one-commodity frameworks. A dynamic model, which takes account
of accumulating capital stocks and of growing population within the Heck-
scher-Ohlin type of model is initially developed by Oniki and Uzawa
(1965) and others, in terms of the two-country, two-good, two-factor
model of trade. The Oniki-Uzawa model is developed within the frame-
work of neoclassical growth theory. The model is primarily concerned
1.1 A Brief Introduction to International Trade Theory 7
with the process of world capital accumulation and distribution with de-
mands and supplies as fast processes. The two-sector growth model has of-
ten been applied to analyze the interdependence between trade patterns and
economic growth. These models are used to study the dynamics of capital
accumulation and balance of payment accounts. There are different sets of
assumptions made about the structure of trade. For instance, in the trade
models by Oniki and Uzawa (1965) and Johnson (1971) free trade in both
consumption and investment goods are allowed. An alternative specifica-
tion of trade structure in the growth framework allows for the existence of
international financial markets and for free trade in consumption goods
and securities, but not in investment goods.11 This framework emphasizes
the interaction of foreign borrowing, debt service, and domestic capital ac-
cumulation. The two-sector neoclassical growth theory was also applied to
analyze small open economies.12
Eaton (1987) proposed a dynamic two-sector, three-factors model of in-
ternational trade. The dynamic specification of the model is based on
Samuelson’s (1958) overlapping generations model. The dynamic model at
each point of time t proposed by Eaton is identical to the three-factor,
two-commodity model examined in a static context by Jones (1971),
Samuelson (1971) and Mussa (1974). The model tries to extend the Heck-
scher-Ohlin theory to include endowments of factor as endogenous vari-
ables. In this model land and capital serve not only as factors of production
but also as assets which individuals use to transfer income from working
periods to retirement. The model shows that changes in the terms of trade
and in the endowments of fixed factors do not necessarily have the same
effects on factor prices and on the composition of output as they do in a
static framework. Some results obtained from the specific-factors model
about the relationships between commodity prices and factor prices, factor
endowments and factor rewards, and factor endowments and the pattern of
production are not held in the dynamic model. For instance, a permanent
increase in the relative price of one commodity does not necessarily lower
the steady-state income of the factor specific to the industry producing the
other commodity.
Obstfeld (1981) examined the saving behavior of a small economy fac-
ing a certain world real interest rate. Obstfeld proposes a dynamic Heck-
scher-Ohlin model with internationally mobile capital and overlapping
generations of infinitely-lived agents. The model focuses on the effects of
government debt and spending shocks. Devereux and Shi (1991) devel-
oped a trade model which includes intertemporal consumption-savings de-
13 As shown later on, these are also built on very strict assumptions.
1.1 A Brief Introduction to International Trade Theory 9
single production factor, labor, and equal prices of both goods. Also sup-
pose that as a result of foreign trade a country shifts labor from the increas-
ing returns to scale industry to the decreasing returns to scale industry.
Then output per man falls in both industries, thereby reducing gross do-
mestic product at constant prices. He held that when a country has a sector
with increasing returns to scale and a sector with decreasing returns to
scale it may lose from trade. He suggested that in this case a tariff is bene-
ficial. Knight (1924) argued that Graham’s analysis of the possible losses
from trade is valid if the economies of scale are external to the firm and in-
ternal to the industry; but it is wrong if the economies of scale are internal
to the firm. Ethier (1979, 1982a, 1982b) explored the conditions under
which Graham’s arguments hold: they depend on the nature of the increas-
ing returns which are either national or international and the pattern of
change in relative prices due to the transition from autarky to trade.
Economists have recognized long time ago that economies of scale pro-
vide an alternative to differences in technology or factor endowments as an
explanation of international trade. But increasing returns as a cause of
trade has received relatively little attention from formal trade theory. Ohlin
(1933) pointed out that economies of scale serve as one explanation of for-
eign trade patterns. Since then, many trade theorists emphasized the role of
monopolistic competition in differentiated products. In particular, there ex-
ist early attempts to extend trade theory on the basis of Chamberlin’s Mo-
nopolistic Competition (Chamberlin, 1933). Explicit general-equilibrium
analysis of trade based on external economies was initiated with Matthews
(1949). Kemp and Negishi (1970) made an important contribution to the
literature, showing that gains from trade are guaranteed if free trade leads
to an expansion (noncontraction) of all increasing returns industries and
nonexpansion of all decreasing returns industries. Eaton and Panagariya
(1979) refined the Kemp-Negishi result. They proved that there are gains
from trade as long as there exists an industry such that all industries with
stronger degree of increasing returns (to weaker decreasing returns) do not
contract in the move to free trade, and all industries with weaker increasing
returns (or stronger decreasing returns) do not expand. In order to take ac-
count the relative importance of increases and decreases in the increasing
returns to scale sectors, Markusen and Melvin (1984) defined a weighted
average rule which applies under the assumption of convex production
possibilities frontier and the absence of factor market distortions. But this
rule is not valid when increasing returns lead to nonconvex production
possibilities. Helpman and Krugman (1985) provided a rule that applies if
aggregate factor usage is fixed between equilibria. Grinols (1992) develop
a rule which applies to more general cases and does not require a convex
production possibility frontier or fixed factor usage between equilibria. He
1.1 A Brief Introduction to International Trade Theory 11
developed a sufficient condition for gains from trade when some increas-
ing returns industries expand and others contract. His conclusions do not
depend on the restrictions that the production frontier must be convex,
changes must satisfy a pre-specified hierarchical pattern, or that total factor
supplies must be fixed between equilibria.
Krugman (1989, 1990) developed a trade model with a single scarce
factor of production, labor, on the basis of the assumptions that scale
economies are internal to firms and the market structure is one of Cham-
berlian monopolistic competition. His treatment of monopolistic competi-
tion was influenced by the model by Dixit and Stiglitz (1977). He pro-
duced trade between identical economies where comparative advantage is
not the cause of trade, whether that comparative advantage comes from
Ricardian or Heckscher-Ohlin factors. It is shown that trade may be a way
of extending the market and allowing exploitation of scarce economies,
with the effects of trade being similar to industrial, urban, or regional ag-
glomeration. This trade model is better suited to explain intraindustry trade
(i.e., trade in similar products) between advanced countries.
Much of the early attention in the literature of modeling two-way trade
with increasing returns was placed on trade at the final product level,
rather than trade in intermediate products. Ethier (1979, 1982b) empha-
sized that returns to specification and two-way trade in intermediate prod-
ucts imply external returns to scale that spill over between economies. It is
argued that the spillover effects associated with international scale econo-
mies are an immediate result of the global and regional integration of in-
dustries subject to external static or dynamic scale effects. In Francois
(1994), a dual model of trade under international returns economies is de-
veloped and applied to examine foreign investment, labor migration, and
commercial policy. It is demonstrated that spillover effects associated with
international scale economies are an immediate result of global and re-
gional integration of industries, and have important implications for com-
mercial policy. As far as economic modeling is concerned, the models with
increasing returns mentioned above were limited to static frameworks.
These works did not provide much indication as to what are the dynamic
effects of international trade on growth, technological progress, and wel-
fare.
Except population and institutions, knowledge is a significant source of
returns to scale economies. Classical economists such as Smith, Marx,
Marshall and Schumpeter, emphasized various aspects of knowledge in
economic dynamics. But there were only a few formal economic models
which deal with interdependence between economic growth and knowl-
edge accumulation before the 1960s. Development of macroeconomics and
theory of international trade are intimately connected. Neoclassical growth
12 1 International Trade and Trade Theory
theory has been adopted to study relationships between trade and eco-
nomic growth. But most of trade models with endogenous capital assume
constant returns to scale production functions with inputs of capital and la-
bor. Technological change is assumed to be exogenous or an ad hoc func-
tion of variables that can be analyzed separately from the basic factors of
production function. The neoclassical growth theory developed in the 60s
and 70s was crucially dependent on some exogenous parameters such as
exogenous technological progress and an exogenous saving rate. However,
it has been pointed out that the neoclassical growth theory cannot satisfac-
torily explain many empirical observations such as the diversity in per cap-
ita GNP growth rates across regions or countries. The neoclassical growth
framework failed to provide a satisfactory framework for analyzing long-
run growth. These models conclude that if countries with the same prefer-
ence and technology will converge to identical levels of income and as-
ymptotic growth rates.
In the 70s Arrow’s learning by doing model (Arrow, 1962) and research
models (Uzawa, 1965; Phelps, 1966) initiated a new trend of modeling in-
terdependence between knowledge and economic growth. Although re-
search on human capital (e.g., Becker, 1975) and technological change
(e.g., Robson, 1980; Sato and Tsutui, 1984; Nelson and Winter, 1982)
caused attention from economists, it may be said that growth with endoge-
nous knowledge was not a mainstream of theoretical economics in the 80s.
Since Romer (1986) and Lucas (1988) published their works on knowl-
edge-based growth models, there has been a continuously increasing litera-
ture in the new growth theory. In the new growth theory, knowledge ac-
cumulation plays an important role in generating endogenously determined
and sustained growth, even though most of the recent works in the new
growth theory have neglected physical capital accumulation. Recently
there have been a rapidly increasing number of publications in the theo-
retical economic literature concerning the relationship between knowledge
accumulation and economic development.14
These knowledge-based economic frameworks have been extended to
study small open economies or interactions of multiple countries. Trade
economists have recently developed different trade models in which en-
dogenous growth is generated either by the development of new varieties
of intermediate or final goods or by the improvement of an existing set of
goods with endogenous technologies.15 These studies attempted to formal-
ize equilibrium trade patterns with endogenous technological change and
See Aghion and Howitt (1992), Jensen and Wong (1998), and Maurer (1998).
14
See Grossman and Helpman (1991), Aghion and Howitt (1998), and
15
Grossmann (2001).
1.1 A Brief Introduction to International Trade Theory 13
16 See Findlay (1978), Wang (1990), and Wang and Blomström (1992).
14 1 International Trade and Trade Theory
17 Dixit and Stiglitz (1977), Helpman and Krugman (1985), and Dixon and Rankin
(1994).
1.2 The Purpose and the Structure of the Book 15
18 Although this book does not integrate Zhang’s approach and the new trade
theory within a single framework, the reader can see that a higher integration is
possible.
1.2 The Purpose and the Structure of the Book 17
different relative factor endowments. The theory is different from the Ri-
cardian model which isolates differences in technology between countries
as the basis for trade. In the Heckscher-Ohlin theory costs of production
are endogenous in the sense that they are different in the trade and autarky
situations, even when all countries have access to the same technology for
producing each good. Section 2.6 introduces the neoclassical theory which
holds that the determinants of trade patterns are to be found simultaneously
in the differences between the technologies, the factor endowments, and
the tastes of different countries. Section 2.7 develops a general equilibrium
model for a two-country two-sector two-factor economy, synthesizing the
models in the previous sectors. Section 2.8 introduces public goods to the
two-sector and two-factor trade model defined in the previous sections.
Section 2.9 concludes the chapter. Appendix 2.1 represents a generaliza-
tion of the Ricardian model to encompass a continuum of goods.
Chapter 3 introduces some basic models of the new trade theory. Sec-
tion 3.1 studies a trade model with monopolistic competition by Krugman.
The Krugman model addresses relations between trade and elements such
as economies of scale, the possibility of product differentiation, and imper-
fect competition. The model is specially effective for providing some in-
sights into the causes of trade between economies with similar factor en-
dowments. The model is based on a monopolistic competitive model
proposed by Dixit and Stiglitz. Section 3.2 introduces the Chamberlinian-
Ricardian model proposed by Kikuchi. Rather than assuming cross-country
technical homogeneity like in the model in Sect. 3.1, the model is con-
cerned with cross-country technical heterogeneity. There are two sectors:
the monopolistically competitive sector and the competitive sector – the
former produces a large variety of differentiated products and the latter
produces a homogeneous good. The homogeneous good is produced under
constant returns to scale. Section 3.3 analyzes the interplay between factor
abundance and agglomeration forces, basing on a model of agglomeration
by Epifani. The model synthesizes the Heckscher-Ohlin theory and the
monopolistic competition. Section 3.4 examines economic mechanism for
the contemporary phenomenon that a large part of international trade is in-
traindustry in character. The section uses a simple model to demonstrate
that although it is costly to export the product from one country to another,
firms in different countries may engage in cross-hauling of an identical
product, making positive profits. Section 3.5 introduces a model of extend-
ing the Heckscher-Ohlin international trade theory to include variable re-
turns to scale. Section 3.6 analyzes the effects of transboundary pollution
on trade and welfare in a general equilibrium.
Chapters 2 and 3 examine traditional trade theories with factor mobility
between sectors with each country but factor immobility between coun-
18 1 International Trade and Trade Theory
of the economy and distribute their incomes to consume and save. Our
model, as far as trade and global growth are concerned, is influenced by
the neoclassical trade theory with capital accumulation. Section 7.1 dis-
cusses the nature of the economic relations between the advanced and less
developed regions of the world economy, or the North and South as it has
become customary to call refer to them. The formal framework, initiated
by Findlay (1980), is a synthesis of Solow-Swan’s neoclassical growth
model (for the North), Lewis’s dual-economic model (for the South), and
Johnson’s trade model as a linkage between the North and the South. Sec-
tion 7.2 builds a dynamic one-commodity and two-country trade model to
examine interdependence between trades and global growth. We analyze
trade issues within the framework of a simple international macroeco-
nomic growth model with perfect capital mobility. Section 7.3 extends the
model in Sect. 7.2, introducing a few new features to the analytical frame-
work. We construct a dynamic one-commodity and multiple-country trade
model to examine interdependence between trade and global growth with
sexual division of labor. The section proposes the multi-country model
with endogenous labor supply, sexual division of labor, and capital accu-
mulation.
Chapter 7 assumes that the world has only one production sector and
produces a single product. Chapter 8 is concerned with dynamic relations
between growth, economic structure and trade patterns in a two-country
world economy. Section 8.1 studies the standard trade model in neoclassical
growth theory proposed by Oniki and Uzawa. The model examines interac-
tions between the process of capital accumulation and the pattern of interna-
tional trade. It is presented in terms of the standard two-country, two-
commodity, two-factor model of international trade. Section 8.2 proposes a
trade model with economic structures and endogenous saving, synthesizing
the Oniki-Uzawa model and the one-sector growth trade model proposed in
Sect. 7.1. Section 8.3 studies a two-country trade model in which economic
product in each country is classified into goods and services. Section 8.4 con-
cludes the chapter. Section A.8.1 extends the two-country model in Sect. 8.3
to any number of countries. Section A.8.2 presents a two-country optimal
model, extending and generalizing the Oniki-Uzawa trade model.
Chapter 9 examines interactions between growth, trade, knowledge
utilization, and creativity within a compact analytical framework. We con-
sider knowledge as an international public good in the sense that all coun-
tries access knowledge and the utilization of knowledge by one country
does not affect that by others. Section 9.1 introduces a growth model with
endogenous human capital accumulation for a national economy. Section 9.2
proposes a multi-country model with capital accumulation and knowledge
creation. This section assumes that knowledge creation is through learning by
1.2 The Purpose and the Structure of the Book 21
doing and research. This section simulates the model to see how the system
moves over time and how the motion of the system is affected when some
parameters are changed. This section is organized as follows. Section 9.2.1
defines the multi-country model with capital accumulation and knowledge
creation. Section 9.2.2 examines the case when all the countries have the
same preference. We show that the motion of the global economy can be ex-
pressed by a two-dimensional differential equations system and we can ex-
plicitly determine the dynamic properties of the global economy. Section
9.2.3 shows that the dynamics of the world economy with J countries can be
described by (J + 1) -dimensional differential equations. As mathematical
analysis of the system is too complicated, we demonstrate some of the dy-
namic properties by simulation when the world economy consists of three
countries. Sections 9.2.4 – 9.2.7 examine respectively effects of changes in
each country’s knowledge utilization efficiency and creativity, research pol-
icy, the propensity to save, and the population. The analytical results in Sec-
tion 9.2.3 are proved in Appendix A.9.1.
The new growth theory has modeled endogenous knowledge accumula-
tion through many channels, including formal education, on-the-job train-
ing, basic scientific research, learning by doing, process innovations, in-
dustrial innovations, and product innovations. The crucial assumption that
leads to sustainable endogenous growth is the existence of increasing re-
turns to scale in economic production under monopolistic competition.
Chapter 10 presents some of the key ideas in the approach in the new trade
theory. Section 10.1 introduces a dynamic, two-country growth model with
trade in which endogenous technical change results from the profit-
maximizing behavior of entrepreneurs. Section 10.2 is concerned with the
role of intellectual property rights (IPRs) in encouraging firms in devel-
oped countries to innovate and in helping developing countries gain access
to knowledge on the global frontier. The section introduces a dynamic
general-equilibrium product-cycle model to analyze the effects of Southern
IPRs on incentives of Northern firms to innovate and to license state-of-
the-art technologies to the South. The quality-ladders model with endoge-
nous innovation and licensing integrates licensing into the theory of en-
dogenous product cycles. Section 10.3 introduces trade costs into North-
South endogenous growth model. The model tries to analyze interactions
among factor endowments, trade costs, production location, and growth.
Section 10.4 introduces a model of growth and innovation of a small econ-
omy. The small country faces perfectly elastic demand in world markets
and trades at exogenously given prices. If the small economy trades on
world capital markets, it does so at an exogenously given rate of interest.
The R&D activities of the small country does not influence the rate of ac-
22 1 International Trade and Trade Theory
This chapter introduces the basic ideas and conclusions of classical inter-
national trade theories in mathematical form. Section 2.1 studies Adam
Smith’s trade theory with absolute advantage. Although Smith’s ideas about
absolute advantage were crucial for the early development of classical
thought for international trade, he failed to create a convincing economic the-
ory of international trade. Section 2.2 examines the theories of comparative
advantage. Ricardo showed that the potential gains from trade are far greater
than Smith envisioned in the concept of absolute advantage. Section 2.3 de-
velops a two-good, two-factor model. Different from the common dual ap-
proach to examining perfectly competitive two-factor two-sector model in the
trade literature, we use profit-maximizing approach to demonstrate the most
well-known theorems in the Heckscher-Ohlin trade theory. These theorems
include the factor price insensitivity lemma, Samuelson’ factor price equali-
zation theorem, Stolper-Samuelson theorem, and Rybczynski’s theorem. In
Sect. 2.4, we illustrate the dual approach for the same economic problems as
defined in Sect. 2.3. Section 2.5 examines the Heckscher-Ohlin theory which
emphasizes differences between the factor endowments of different countries
and differences between commodities in the intensities with which they use
these factors. The basic model deals with a long-term general equilibrium in
which the two factors are both mobile between sectors and the cause of trade
is that different countries have different relative factor endowments. The the-
ory is different from the Ricardian model which isolates differences in tech-
nology between countries as the basis for trade. In the Heckscher-Ohlin the-
ory costs of production are endogenous in the sense that they are different in
the trade and autarky situations, even when all countries have access to the
same technology for producing each good. Section 2.6 introduces the neo-
classical theory which holds that the determinants of trade patterns are to be
found simultaneously in the differences between the technologies, the factor
endowments, and the tastes of different countries. Section 2.7 develops a
general equilibrium model for a two-country two-sector two-factor economy,
synthesizing the models in the previous sectors. Section 2.8 introduces public
goods to the two-sector and two-factor trade model defined in the previous
sections. Section 2.9 concludes the chapter. Appendix 2.1 represents a well-
24 2 Classical International Trade Theories
Adam Smith (1776) held that for two nations to trade with each other vol-
untarily, both nations must gain. If one nation gained nothing or lost, it
would refuse it. According to Smith, mutually beneficial trade takes place
based on absolute advantage. When one nation is more efficient than (or
has an absolute advantage over) the other nation is producing a second
commodity, then both nations gain by each specializing in the production
of the commodity of its absolute advantage and exchanging part of its out-
put with the other nation for the commodity of its absolute disadvantage.
For instance, Japan is efficient in producing cars but inefficient in produc-
ing computers; on the other hand, the USA is efficient in producing com-
puters but inefficient in cars. Thus, Japan has an absolute advantage over
the USA in producing cars but an absolute disadvantage in producing
computers. The opposite is true for the USA. Under these conditions, ac-
cording to Smith, both nations would benefit if each specified in the pro-
duction of the commodity of its absolute advantage and then traded with
the other nation. Japan would specialize in producing cars and would ex-
change some of the cars for computers produced in the USA. As a result,
both more cars and computers would be produced, and both Japan and the
USA gain. Through free trade, resources are mostly efficiently utilized and
output of both commodities will rise. Smith thus argued that all nations
would gain from free trade and strongly advocated a policy of laissez-faire.
Under free trade, world resources would be utilized mostly efficiently and
world welfare would be maximized.
To explain the concept of absolute advantage, we assume that the world
consists of two countries (for instance, England and Portugal). There are
two commodities (cloth and wine) and a single factor (labor) of produc-
tion. Technologies of the two countries are fixed. Assume that the unit cost
of production of each commodity (expressed in terms of labor) is constant.
Assume that a labor theory of value is employed, that is, goods exchange
for each other at home in proportion to the relative labor time embodied in
them. Let us assume that the unit costs of production of cloth and wine in
terms of labor are respectively 2 and 8 in England;1 while they are re-
spectively 4 and 6 in Portugal. Applying the labor theory of value, we see
1 Units for cloth and wine are, for instance, yard and barrel.
2.2 The Ricardian Trade Theory 25
that 1 unit of wine is exchanged for 4 units of cloth in England when Eng-
land does not have trade with Portugal. The ratio is expressed as
1 / 4 units of cloth/per wine . The ratio is the relative quantities of labor re-
quired to produce the goods in England and can be considered as opportu-
nity costs. The ratio is referred to as the price ratio in autarky. Similarly,
2 units of wine is exchanged for 3 units of cloth in Portugal ( 3 / 2 units of
cloth/per wine). England has an absolute advantage in the production of
cloth and Portugal has an absolute advantage in the production of wine be-
cause to produce one unit of cloth needs less amount of labor in England
than in Portugal and to produce one unit of wine needs more amount of la-
bor in England than in Portugal. Adam Smith argued that there should be
mutual benefits for trade because each country has absolute advantage in
producing goods. For instance, if the two countries have free trade and
each country specified in producing the good where it has absolute advan-
tage. In this example, England is specified in producing cloth and Portugal
in producing wine. Also assume that in the international market, one unit
of wine can exchange for 3 units of cloth. In England in open economy
one can obtain one unit of wine with 3 units of cloth, while in the autarky
system one unit of wine requires 4 units of cloth, we see that trade will
benefit England. Similarly, in Portugal in open economy one can obtain
one unit of cloth with 1 / 3 unit of wine instead of 2 / 3 unit of wine as in
autarky system, trade also benefits Portugal. In this example, we fixed the
barter price in open economies with one unit of wine for 3 units of cloth.
It can be seen that mutual gains can occur over a wide range of barter
prices.
Although Smith’s ideas about absolute advantage were crucial for the early
development of classical thought for international trade, it is generally
agreed that David Ricardo is the creator of the classical theory of interna-
tional trade, even though many concrete ideas about trade existed before
his Principles (Ricardo, 1817). Ricardo showed that the potential gains
from trade are far greater than Smith envisioned in the concept of absolute
advantage.
The theories of comparative advantage and the gains from trade are usu-
ally connected with Ricardo. In this theory the crucial variable used to ex-
plain international trade patterns is technology. The theory holds that a dif-
ference in comparative costs of production is the necessary condition for
the existence of international trade. But this difference reflects a difference
26 2 Classical International Trade Theories
stance, if we fix the trade terms at 0.55 , which means that 0.55 units of
wine exchanges for one unit of cloth, then in free trade system in England
one unit of cloth exchanges for 0.55 units of wine (rather than 0.5 as in
isolated system) and in Portugal 0.55 (rather than 0.6 ) unit of wine ex-
changes for one unit of cloth. The model thus concludes that international
trade is beneficial to both countries. It is straightforward to show that the
terms of trade must be strictly located between the two comparative costs
(i.e., between 0.5 and 0.6 in our example). It is readily verified that if the
terms of trade were equal to either comparative cost, the concerned coun-
try would have no economic incentive to trade; if the terms of trade were
outside the interval between the comparative costs, then some country will
suffer a loss by engaging in international trade.
We now formally describe the Ricardian model.2 The assumptions of the
Ricardian model are as follows: (1) Each country has a fixed endowment
of resources, and all units of each particular resource are identical; (2) The
economy is characterized of perfect competition; (3) The factors of pro-
duction are perfectly mobile between sectors within a country but immo-
bile between countries;3 (4) There is only one factor of production, labor
and the relative value of a commodity is based solely on its labor content;4
(5) Technology is fixed and different countries may have different levels
of technology; (6) Unit costs of production are constant; (7) Factors of
production are fully employed; (8) There is no trade barrier, such as trans-
portation costs or government-imposed obstacles to economic activity.
First, we consider that the world economy consists of two countries,
called Home and Foreign. Only two goods, wine and cloth, are produced.
The technology of each economy can be summarized by labor productivity
in each country, represented in terms of the unit labor requirement, the
number of hours of labor required to produce a unit of wine or a unit of
cloth. Let aW and aC stand respectively for the unit labor requirements in
wine and cloth production, and QW and QC for levels of production of
wine and cloth in Home. For Foreign, we will use a convenient notation
throughout this book: when we refer some aspect of Foreign, we will use
the same symbol that we use for Home, but with a tilde ~. Correspond-
2 The Ricardian model presented below can be found in standard textbooks on
international economics. This section is referred to Krugman and Obstfeld (2006).
A formal analysis is referred to Borkakoti (1998: Chap. 6).
3 This assumption implies that the prices of factors of production are the same
in different sectors within each country and may differ between countries.
4 The assumption of a single factor of production can be replaced by that any
other inputs are measured in terms of the labor embodied in production or the
other inputs/labor ratio is the same in all industries
28 2 Classical International Trade Theories
~ ~
ingly, we define a~W , a~C , QW and QC for Foreign. Let two countries’ to-
~
tal labor supplies be represented by N and N , respectively. The produc-
tion possibility frontiers of the two sectors in the two countries are given
by
aW QW + aC QC ≤ N ,
~ ~ ~
a~W QW + a~C QC ≤ N .
A production possibility shows the maximum amount of one product that
can be produced once the decision on the amount of production of the
other product has been made. We rewrite the above two inequalities in the
following form
aW QW + aC QC ≤ N , (2.2.1)
where a variable with macron ¯ stand for both Home and Foreign. Figure
2.2.1 shows Home’s production possibility frontier. The absolute value of
slope of the line is equal to the opportunity cost of cloth in terms of wine.5
The slope of the line is equal to aC / aW .
QW
L
aW
L / aC QC
Fig. 2.2.1. Home’s production possibility frontier
5 The opportunity cost is the units of wine the country has to give up in order to
determined by the relative unit labor requirements. But once the possibility
of international trade is allowed, we have to examine how relative prices
are determined. We now examine how supply is determined. First, we
show that if the relative price of cloth is below aC / aW , then there is no
supply of cloth. We have already shown that if PC / PW < aC / aW , Home
will specialize in the production of wine. Similarly, Foreign will specialize
in the production of wine if PC / PW < a~C / a~W . Under (2.2.2), there is no
supply of cloth. When PC / PW = aC / aW , Home will supply any relative
amount of the two goods. We draw the relative supply curve (RS) in Fig.
2.2.2, where the horizontal axis is the relative supply,
( ~
)( ~
)
QC + QC / QW + QW , and the vertical axis is the relative price, PC / PW .
At PC / PW = aC / aW , the supply curve is flat. If PC / PW > aC / aW , Home
specializes in the production of cloth, the output being L / aC . As long as
PC / PW < a~C / a~W , Foreign will specialize in production of wine, the output
~
being L / a~W . We see that if
aC P a~
< C < ~C ,
aW PW aW
( ~
)
the relative output is (L / aC ) / L / a~W . When PC / PW = a~C / a~W , Foreign is
indifferent between producing cloth and wine, resulting in a flat section of
the supply curve. Finally, if PC / PW > a~C / a~W , both Home and Foreign
specialize in production of cloth. The relative supply of cloth becomes in-
finite. In summary, we see that the world relative supply curve consists of
steps with flat sections connected by a vertical section.
The supply curve is plotted in Fig. 2.2.2. The relative demand curve
(RD) is plotted as in Fig. 2.2.2. As the relative price of cloth rises, con-
sumers will tend to purchase less cloth and more wine. The equilibrium
relative price of cloth is determined at the intersection of the RD and RS.
From two different RDs, we have two different equilibrium points, A and
B , as illustrated in Fig. 2.2.2. At equilibrium point A , each country spe-
cializes in production of the good in which it has a comparative advantage:
Home produces cloth and Foreign produces wine. At equilibrium point B ,
Home produces both cloth and wine. Foreign still specializes in producing
wine. Foreign still specializes in producing in the good in which it has a
comparative advantage. We also see that except the case that one of the
two countries does not completely specialize, the relative price in trade
system is somewhere between its autarky levels in the two countries.
2.2 The Ricardian Trade Theory 31
PC / PW
a~C
a~W
RS
A
aC RD
B
aW
RD’
L / aC ~
~ QC + QC
L / a~W ~
QW + QW
Fig. 2.2.2. Relative supply and demand curves in the world market
6 For instance, Ethier (1974), Chang (1979), Jones and Neary (1985) and Neary
(1985).
32 2 Classical International Trade Theories
a 21 a22 a2 j a (2.2.3)
> > ⋅⋅⋅ > > ⋅ ⋅ ⋅ > 2n ,
a11 a12 a1 j a1n
The Ricardian theory is concerned with technology. The theory has a sin-
gle factor of production. Nevertheless, economic activities involve many
factors. The Heckscher-Ohlin international trade theory is concerned with
factors of production. Before introducing the Heckscher-Ohlin theory in
the next section, we develop a two-good, two-factor model. Different from
the common dual approach to examining perfectly competitive two-factor
two-sector model in the trade literature,8 we use profit-maximizing ap-
proach to demonstrate the most well-known theorems in the Heckscher-
Ohlin trade theory. In Sect. 2.4, we illustrate the dual approach for the
same economic problems.
We are concerned with a single country. Assume that there are two fac-
tors of production, labor and capital. Their total supplies, N and K , are
fixed. The economy produces two goods with the following Cobb-Douglas
production functions9
7 The terms of trade measures the relationship between the price a country re-
ceives for its exports versus the price a country pays for its imports. The higher the
ratio, the more favorable terms of trade are for the country (Sawyer and Sprinkle,
2003: Chap. 2). In general, we need to introduce demand theory to determine the
terms of trade.
8 The dual approach is referred to, for instance, Woodland (1977, 1982), Mussa
(1979), and Dixit and Norman (1980). The geometric approach to the problem is
referred to, for instance, Lerner (1952), Findlay and Grubert (1959), and Gandolfo
(1994a).
9 The specified form is mainly for convenience of analysis. It can be shown that
if the production functions are neoclassical, then the essential conclusions of this
34 2 Classical International Trade Theories
α β
F j = A j K j j N j j , j = 1, 2 , α j , β j > 0 , α j + β j = 1, (2.3.1)
π j = p j F j − wN j − rK j .
The marginal conditions for maximizing profits are given by
α j p j Fj β j p j Fj (2.3.2)
r= , w= .
Kj Nj
section holds. Some of the discussions in this section are based on Leamer (1984)
and Feenstra (2004: Chap. 1).
2.3 The Trade Model and the Core Theorems in Trade Theory 35
αkN N (2.3.5)
N1 = , N2 = .
1 + αk 1 + αk
α β
Substituting F j = A j K j j N j j into β1 p1 F1 / N1 = β 2 p2 F2 / N 2 yields
as a whole.
36 2 Classical International Trade Theories
K1 K (2.3.12)
= a1 p β 0 , 2 = a2 p β 0 ,
N1 N2
This lemma also implies that the factor endowments (N , K ) do not affect
(w , r ). “Factor price insensitivity” is referred to the result that in a two-
by-two economy, with fixed product prices, it is possible that the labor
force or capital has no effects on its factor price. This property does hold
even for the one-sector Ricardian model introduced in Sect. 2.2.
When trade takes place, then the relative price, p , is the same across the
countries. As the two countries have the identical technologies, that is, α j
and A j are identical across the countries, from Eqs. (2.3.13) we see that
Samuelson’s theorem holds. This theorem says that trade in goods may
equalize factor prices across the countries even when production factors
are immobile. One may consider that trade in goods is a perfect substitute
for trade in factors. It should be remarked that in the Ricardian model, this
result does not hold – equalization of the product price through trade
would not equalize wage rates across countries. In the Ricardian economy,
the labor-abundant country would be paying a lower wage.
Another well-known question in the trade literature is that when product
prices are changed, how the factor prices will be changed. Taking deriva-
tives of Eqs. (2.3.13) with respect to p1 and p2 results in
1 dr β2 1 dw α2
= , =− ,
r dp1 (α 1 − α 2 ) p1 w dp1 (α1 − α 2 ) p1
1 dw α1 1 dr β1 (2.3.14)
= , =− ,
w dp2 (α1 − α 2 ) p2 r dp2 (α1 − α 2 ) p2
11 A general treatment of the subject for any finite dimensional case is referred
to Nishimura (1991).
38 2 Classical International Trade Theories
The implies that when product price changes because of changes in, for
instance, export conditions or tariffs, there will be both gainers and losers
due to the change. This implies that trade has distributional consequences
within the country, which make some people worse off and some better
off, even though the aggregated result for the national economy is benefi-
cial.
We now examine effects of changes in the endowments. From Eq.
(2.3.8), we have
1 dk − (1 − α )α 0
= > 0,
k dN (1 − α 0 )(α 0 − α )N
1 dk
=
(1 − α )α 0 < 0.
(2.3.17)
k dK (1 − α 0 )(α 0 − α )K
An often cited example for applying this theorem is the so called “Dutch
Disease”13. It was observed that the discovery of oil off the coast of the
Netherlands had led to an increase in industries making use of this re-
source and a decrease in other traditional export industries. The Rybczyn-
ski theorem predicts that for a small open economy, the increase in the re-
source would encourage the industry which uses the resource intensively
and reduce the other industry, with all the other conditions fixed.
Using our alternative approach to the common dual approach, we have
demonstrated the main conclusions about the standard two-factor too-
goods model for a small economy. As we have explicitly solved the equi-
librium problem with the Cobb-Douglas functions, it is straightforward for
us to prove the factor price insensitivity lemma, Samuelson’ factor price
equalization theorem, Stolper-Samuelson theorem, and Rybczynski’s theo-
rem. In fact, as shown in the literature,14 these theorems hold for general
(neoclassical) production functions. In our approach, we use the neoclassi-
cal production functions: F j = F j (K j , N j ). Marginal conditions for
maximizing profits are given by
[
r = p j f j' (k j ), w = p j f j (k j ) − k j f j' (k j ) ,] (2.3.20)
where
Kj F j (K j , N j )
kj ≡ , f j (k j ) ≡ .
Nj Nj
[ ] [ ]
p1 f1 (k1 ) − k1 f1' (k1 ) = p1 f 2 (φ (k1 )) − φ (k1 ) f 2' (φ (k1 )) .
K − k2 N kN−K
N1 = , N2 = 1 ,
k1 − k 2 k1 − k 2
K1 =
(K − k 2 N )k1 , K2 =
(k1 N − K )k 2 .
k1 − k 2 k1 − k 2
We thus solved all the variables. It is not difficult to examine the compara-
tive statics results of the model with the neoclassical production functions.
Another important case of the 2× 2 model is that either capital or labor
is specific to the sector so that there is no capital or labor movement. A
common assumption is that capital is specific to the sector but labor can
move freely between the sectors. The rental rates for capital employed by
two sectors may vary. The 2× 2 model with specific-factors is called the
Ricardo-Viner or Jones-Neary model.15 The production functions are now
given by F j (K *j , N j ), where K *j are fixed levels of capital. The marginal
conditions for capital are given by
r j = p j f j' (k j ),
15 See Viner (1931, 1950), Jones (1971) and Neary (1978a, 1978b).
16 See Wong (1995) and Markusen et al. (1995). The specific-factor model is
extended in two directions. First, Mussa (1974), Mayer (1974a) and Grossman
(1983) regard sector specificity as a short-run phenomenon and in the long run
capital is mobile. Second, the extension is to treat the capital stocks in the two sec-
42 2 Classical International Trade Theories
We now illustrate the dual approach commonly used in the literature of in-
ternational economics to examine the equilibrium properties of the two-
good two-sector model in Sect. 2.3.17 This section is based on Feenstra
(2004: Chap. 1).18
The basic assumptions are similar to the assumptions in Sect. 2.3. When
a symbol stands for the same variable, we will not explain it. The neoclas-
sical production functions are y j = F j (K j , N j ), where y j is the output of
good j . The resource constraints are
K1 + K 2 ≤ K , N1 + N 2 ≤ N . (2.4.1)
tors as two different types of factors. This implies a three-factor, two-sector model
(see, for instance, Batra and Casas, 1976; Ruffin, 1981; Thompson, 1986; and
Wong, 1990).
17 The dual approach has been widely applied in static trade theory. Except this
example, this study does not follow this approach in deriving the classical results
of trade theory.
18 Explanations in detail and geometric illustrations are referred to Feenstra
∂G ∂y ∂y
= y j + p1 1 + p2 2 = yj ,
∂p j
∂p j ∂p j
where we use the envelope theorem.19
The unit-cost functions which are dual to the production functions,
F j (K j , N j ), are defined by
∂y1 ∂y
p1 + p2 2 = 0 .
∂p j ∂p j
44 2 Classical International Trade Theories
rˆ =
(θ1N − θ 2 N ) pˆ 2 − ( pˆ 1 − pˆ 2 )θ 2 N
,
θ1 N − θ 2 N
wˆ =
(θ1K − θ 2 K ) pˆ 1 + ( pˆ 1 − pˆ 2 )θ1K
,
θ1 N − θ 2 N
where we use θ jK + θ jN = 1. For convenience of discussion, assume hence-
forth that industry 1 is labor intensive, that is, L1 / K1 > L2 / K 2 . We have
the following relations
These conditions are that both goods are produced and factor intensity rever-
20
sals do not occur. The latter means that the two zero-profit conditions intersect
only once.
21 Expressing the equation using the cost shares and percentage changes follow
L1 L
> 2 ⇔ θ1 N > θ 2 N ⇔ θ1 K < θ 2 K .
K1 K 2
Moreover, suppose that the relative price of good 1 increases, so that
ˆp = pˆ 1 − pˆ 2 > 0 . With these assumptions, we have
λ1N yˆ1 + λ2 N yˆ 2 = Nˆ ,
where λ jK ≡ y j a jK / K = K i / K and λ jN ≡ y j a jN / N = N j / N respectively
denote the fraction of capital and the labor force employed in industry j .
We also have λ jK + λ jN = 1. As industry 1 is labor intensive, we have
λ1N − λ2 N > 0 . First, we examine the case of Nˆ > 0 and Kˆ = 0 . We solve
Eqs. (2.4.6) as
λ2 K Nˆ − λ1K Nˆ (2.4.7)
yˆ1 = > Nˆ , yˆ 2 = < 0.
λ2 K − λ2 N λ2 K − λ2 N
22 The original 1919 article by Heckscher and the 1924 dissertation by Ohlin
have been translated from Swedish and edited by Flam and Flanders (Heckscher
and Ohlin, 1991).
2.5 The Heckscher-Ohlin Theory 47
crease in the relative price of one commodity raises the real return of the
factor used intensively in producing that commodity and lowers the real re-
turn of the other factor; (3) the Rybczynski theorem by Rybczynski (1955),
stating that if commodity prices are held fixed, an increase in the endow-
ment of one factor causes a more than proportionate increase in the output
of the commodity which uses that factor relatively intensively and an abso-
lute decline in the output of the other commodity; and (4) the Heckscher-
Ohlin theorem by Heckscher (1919) and Ohlin (1933), stating that a coun-
try tends to have a bias towards producing and exporting the commodity
which uses intensively the factor with which it is relatively well-endowed.
The previous section has already confirmed the factor price insensitivity
lemma, Samuelson’ factor price equalization theorem, Stolper-Samuelson
theorem, and Rybczynski’s theorem. We now confirm the Heckscher-
Ohlin theorem. The original Heckscher-Ohlin model considers that the
only difference between countries is the relative abundances of capital and
labor. It has two commodities. Since there are two factors of production,
the model is sometimes called the “ 2 × 2 × 2 model.” The Heckscher-Ohlin
theorem holds under, except the assumptions for the two-product two-
factor model developed in Sect. 2.3, the following assumptions: (1) capital
and labor are not available in the same proportion in both countries; (2) the
two goods produced either require relatively more capital or relatively
more labor; (3) transportation costs are neglected; (4) consumers in the
world have the identical and homothetic taste. Like in Sect. 2.2, we call the
two countries as Foreign and Home. We will use the same symbol as in
Sect. 2.3 and the variables for Foreign with a tilde ~. We assume that
~ ~
Home is labor abundant, that is, N / K > N / K . The two countries have
identical technologies. We also assume that good 1 is labor intensive.
Trade is balanced, that is, value of exports being equal to value of imports.
Under these assumptions, the following Heckscher-Ohlin theorem holds.
The theorem implies that Home exports good 1 and Foreign exports 2 . In
order to determine trade directions, we need mechanisms to determine
prices of goods. The analytical results in Sect. 2.3 and or the dual theory in
Sect. 2.4 cannot yet determine prices. To determine trade directions, we
further develop the economic model in Sect. 2.3. We now introduce a
utility function to determine prices in autarky. After we determine the
prices in autarky, we can then determine the directions of trade flows. The
consumer’s utility-maximizing problem is described as
48 2 Classical International Trade Theories
As C j = F j , we have
p1 F1 ξ1
= .
p2 F2 ξ 2
p1 ~
p
< ~1 .
p2 p2
Hence, when the two countries are in autarky, the relative price in Home
is lower than the relative price in Foreign. This implies that when the two
countries start to conduct trade, good 1 is exported to Foreign and good 2
is imported from Foreign. We have thus confirmed the Heckscher-Ohlin
theorem. It should be noted that we do not determine trade volumes. We
will not further examine this model in this section as we will study a more
general trade equilibrium model later on.
The Heckscher-Ohlin model was a break-through because it showed how
comparative advantage might be related to general features of a country’s
capital and labor. Although the theory cannot describe how these features
vary over time, it can be used to provide insights into some simple dy-
namic trade issues. In the light of modern analysis, Ohlin’s original work
was not sophisticated. The original model has been generalized and extended
since the 1930s. Mundell (1957) first developed a geometric exploration of
the model with substitute relationship between factor movements and
commodity trade in a Heckscher-Ohlin setting. Here, by trade in commodi-
ties being a substitute for international mobility of factors we mean that the
volume of trade in commodities is diminished if factors are allowed to see
their highest return in global markets. Mundell analyzed a two-country
economy in which the two countries share the same technologies for pro-
ducing the same two commodities with different factor endowments. Free
trade leads to a trade pattern that the relatively capital-abundant country
exports its relatively capital-intensive commodity, and the return to capital
equalized between countries. Notable contributions were made by Paul
Samuelson, Ronald Jones, and Jaroslav Vanek.23 In the modern literature,
these syntheses are sometimes called the Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson (HOS)
model and the Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek (HOV) model. We now mention a
few basic results from the HOV model.24
The economy of the HOV model consists of C countries (indexed by
i = 1, ... , C ), J industries (indexed by j = 1, ... , J ), and M factors (in-
dexed by κ , l = 1, ... , M ). Assume that technologies and tastes are identi-
cal across countries and factor price equalization prevails under free trade.
Let a jκ stand for the amount of factor κ needed for one unit of production
[ ]
in industry j , and A ≡ a jκ
T
M ×J
. The matrix is valid for any country. Let
Y i and D i represent respectively the (J ×1) vectors of outputs in each in-
dustry and demands of each good in country i . Country i' s net exports
vector is
T i = Y i − Di .
This equation represents the content of the HOV theorem. If country i' s
endowment of factor κ relative to the world endowment exceeds its share
of world GDP, that is, Vκi / Vκw > s i , that is, F i > 0 , we say that country i
is abundant in that factor. When we have two factors, capital and labor,
then the following theorem holds.
K i K i − Fκi (2.5.4)
> i ,
Li L − Fli
where K i and Li are respectively the capital and labor endowments for
country i .
This theorem holds for only two product factors. It has become clear
that the results for the 2 × 2 × 2 model are not valid for many countries
with many factors and many products.25 The Heckscher-Ohlin model has
been extended and generalized in many other ways. For instance, Purvis
(1972) proposed a trade model, showing that trade in commodities and
mobility of factors might be complements. By complements, it means that
opening up factor mobility could cause the previous level of international
trade in commodities to rise. In Purvis’ framework, the pattern of trade
might reflect different technologies between countries that happen to be
endowed with the same factor endowment proportions. If the home coun-
try has an absolute technological advantage in producing the labor-
intensive commodity which will be exported in the free trade system, its
wage rate will be higher. Free migration attracts the foreign labor because
of the higher wage. Consequently, free trade expands the volume of ex-
ports. In this case, trade in commodities and factor mobility is comple-
ments. Markusen (1983) synthesized the ideas in the two approaches, con-
cluding that if trade is a refection of endowment differences, commodities
and factors are substitutes, while if trade is prompted by other differences,
they can be compliments. A further examination of these ideas is referred
to Jones (2000). Leontief tried to empirically test the theory, concluding
that the theory is empirically not valid.26 Leontief observed that the United
States had a lot of capital. According to the Heckscher-Ohlin theory, the
United States should export capital-intensive products and import labor-
intensive products. But he found that that it exported products that used
more labor than the products it imported. This observation is known as the
Leontief paradox. From the assumptions made in the Heckscher-Ohlin
theory, it is evident that the assumptions are strict. An early attempt to
solve the paradox was made by Linder in 1961. The Linder hypothesis
emphasizes demand aspects of international trade in contrast to the usual
25 Reviews about the literature on equilibrium trade models with many goods
and many factors is referred to, for instance, Wong (1997) and Feenstra (2004).
26 Many other researches are conducted to test the theory, for instance, Leamer
(1980), Bowen et al. (1987), Trefler (1993, 1995), and Davis and Weinstein
(2001).
52 2 Classical International Trade Theories
The Ricardian theory failed to determine the terms of trade, even though it
can be used to determine the limits in which the terms of trade must lie.
The Heckscher-Ohlin theory provides simple and intuitive insights into the
relationships between commodity prices and factor prices, factor supplies
and factor rewards, and factor endowments and the pattern of production
and trade. Although the Heckscher-Ohlin model was the dominant frame-
work for analyzing trade in the 1960s, it had neither succeeded in supplant-
ing the Ricardian model nor had been replaced by the specific-factor trade
models. Each theory has been refined within its own ‘scope’. Each theory is
limited to a range of questions. It is argued that as far as general ideas are
concerned, the Heckscher-Olin theory may be considered as a special case
of the neoclassical theory introduced in this section as it accepts all the
logical promises of neoclassical methodology.27 The Heckscher-Olin the-
ory may be seen as a special case of the neoclassical trade theory in which
production technology and preferences are internationally identical.
It was recognized long ago that in order to determine the terms of trade,
it is necessary to build trade theory which not only takes account of the
productive side but also the demand side.28 The neoclassical theory holds
that the determinants of trade patterns are to be found simultaneously in
the differences between the technologies, the factor endowments, and the
tastes of different countries.29 Preference accounts for the existence of in-
ternational trade even if technologies and factor endowments were com-
The above two equations mean that the demand for labor does not exceed
the supply in each country. We denote respectively the prices of cloth and
linen by pc and pl . At equilibrium country j should choose
( y jc , y jl ) such that the following GDP is maximized
pc
y jc + y jl .
pl
a1c a
yc + y1l + 2 c ≤ ac ,
a1l a2 l
where
yc ≡ y1c + y2 c , ac ≡ a1c + a2 c .
If we assume that Germany has the comparative advantage in linen, i.e.,
a1c / a1l < a2 c / a2 l , from the above inequality we get
yc y a (2.6.2)
+ l ≤ c ,
a1c a1l a1c
yc y a (2.6.3)
+ l ≤ l ,
a 2 c a2 l a 2 l
Rj Rj (2.6.4)
X jc = , X jl = , j = 1, 2 ,
2 pc 2 pl
where
X c ≡ X 1c + X 2 c , X l ≡ X 1l + X 2l .
Introduce the world utility function as
U = log X c + log X l .
We maximize this U subject to (2.6.1) and (2.6.5). The Lagrangean is
given by
56 2 Classical International Trade Theories
Section 2.3 examined a two-good two-factor model with fixed prices. Sec-
tion 2.5 determined prices for an autarky economy by studying house-
holds’ utility-maximizing behavior. Section 2.6 showed how the neoclassi-
cal economic trade theory determines trade pattern for a two-country world
with a single factor. This section develops a general equilibrium model for
a two-country two-sector two-factor economy, synthesizing the models in
the previous sectors.34
The two countries are called Home and Foreign. Assume that there are two
factors of production, labor and capital. For Foreign, we will use the same
symbol that we use for Home, but with a tilde ~. Home’s and Foreign’s to-
tal supplies of capital and labor are fixed and are denoted respectively by,
examine similar issues in Chap. 7 when dealing with economic structures with
capital accumulation.
2.7 A General Two-Country Two-Good Two-Factor Trade Model 57
~ ~
N and K , N and K . Each economy may produce two goods with the fol-
lowing Cobb-Douglas production functions
α β
F j = A j K j j N j j , j = 1, 2 , α j , β j > 0 , α j + β j = 1, (2.7.1)
where
ξ0 j
ξj ≡ > 0 , j = 1, 2 .
ξ 01 + ξ 02
We now describe trade balances. The total output of world production of
any good is equal its total consumption. That is
58 2 Classical International Trade Theories
~ ~ (2.7.6)
C j + C j = Fj + Fj .
~
Let X j and X j stand for respectively the amount of (net) imports of
good j by Home and Foreign. When the variable is negative (positive),
then the country exports (imports) that good. A country’s consumption
plus its exports is equal to its total product. That is
C j = F j + X j , j = 1, 2 . (2.7.7)
The sum of the net exports for any good in the world is equal to zero, that
is
~ (2.7.8)
X j + X j = 0 , j = 1, 2 .
From Eqs. (2.7.7) and (2.7.8), we directly obtain Eqs. (2.7.6). Hence, two
equations in (2.7.6)-(2.7.8) are redundant.
In terms of value, any country is in trade balance, that is
p1 X 1 + p2 X 2 = 0 .
From these conditions and Eqs. (2.7.8), we have35
~ ~
X 1 = pX 2 , pX 2 = X 1 ,
where p ≡ p1 / p2 .
We now solve the model. We have 26 variables, p1 , p2 , E j , X j , F j ,
N j , K j , w and r , to determine. First, from Eqs. (2.7.2), we have
α1 p1 F1 α 2 p2 F2 β1 p1 F1 β 2 p2 F2 (2.7.9)
= , = .
K1 K2 N1 N2
α β
Substituting F j = A j K j j N j j into β1 p1 F1 / N1 = β 2 p2 F2 / N 2 yields
1 + αk (2.7.12)
= α 0 pυ ,
1+ k
where
υ
p βA N 1
p ≡ 1 , α 0 ≡ α1 1 1 , υ ≡ .
p2 α β 2 A2 K α 2 − α1
β1
β1
α1
α1
α1 −α 2
β
β2
α1
α2 (2.7.14)
A N
< 2 < 1 .
β2 α2 pA1 K β2 α2
It is direct to show that under α 2 > α1 , the right-hand side of (2.3.8) is
greater than the left-hand side. Hence, under proper combinations of tech-
nological levels, relative price and factor endowments, we have a unique
positive solution k > 0 . In the rest of this section, for simplicity we re-
quire α 2 > α1 in Home and Foreign. We omit the other possibilities of
α~ ≤ α~ and α ≥ α or α~ ≥ α~ and α ≤ α .
2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1
36 The conditions guarantee that both countries produce two goods. If these
conditions are not satisfied, then one or two countries may specialize in producing
a single good.
60 2 Classical International Trade Theories
kK K (2.7.15)
K1 = , K2 = .
1+ k 1+ k
The labor distribution is given by Eqs. (2.7.10). As the distributions of the
factor endowments are determined as unique functions of the relative
price, we can calculate the output levels and factor prices.
As the production functions are neoclassical, the wage and rate of inter-
est are determined as functions of capital intensities, K j / N j . We now
α βj
find the expressions for the capital intensities. Insert F j = A j K j j N j in
Eqs. (2.7.9)
1 / β1 β 2 / β1 1 / α1
K2
α 2 / α1 (2.7.16)
K1 α 1 pA1 K2 K1 β 2 A2
= , = .
N1 α 2 A2 N2 N1 β1 pA1 N2
We solve Eqs. (2.3.11) as
K1 K (2.7.17)
= a1 pυ , 2 = a2 pυ ,
N1 N2
in which
υ β 2υ α 2υ υ β1υ α1υ
A β1 α1 A β1 α1
a1 ≡ 1 , a2 ≡ 1 .
A2 β2 α2 A2 β2 α2
We note that the capital intensities are independent of N and K . From
marginal conditions (2.7.2) and F1 = A1 K1α1 N1β1 , we have
r K + w N = A1 K1α1 N1β1 + A2 K 2α 2 N 2β 2 .
Substituting Eqs. (2.7.18) and (2.7.17) into the above equation yields
2.7 A General Two-Country Two-Good Two-Factor Trade Model 61
α1 A1 K
β + β1 A1a1α1 pυ N p2 = A1 N1 a1α1 p (α1 + β 2 )υ + A2 N 2 a2α 2 pυ .
a1
1
where
n≡
(1 − α )α 0α1 A1 K , b ≡ (1 − α )α 0 β1 A1a1α1 .
β1
a1 N
Dividing the two equations in (2.7.19) yields
n + bpυ
Ω( p ) ≡ ~ ~ υ~ −
(1 − α 0 pυ )A1αa1α1 + (α 0 pυ − α )A2 a2α 2 p = 0. (2.7.20)
n + bp (1 − α~0 pυ~ )A~1α~a~1α~1 + (α~0 pυ~ − α~ )A~2 a~2α~2 p
The equation, Ω( p ) = 0 , contains a single variable, p . Once we determine
a meaningful solution of the equation, all the other variables in the system
are uniquely determined as functions of the solution.
Lemma 2.7.1
Assume that α 2 > α1 and α~2 > α~1 . If the equation, Ω( p ) = 0 , has a posi-
tive solution satisfying (2.7.14), then each country produces two goods.
The world trade equilibrium is determined by the following procedure: p
by (2.7.20) → p1 by (2.7.19) → p2 = p1 / p → r and w by (2.7.18) →
Y = r K + w L → C j , j = 1, 2 , by (2.7.5) → k by (3.7.13) → K j by
~
(3.7.15) → N j by (3.7.10) → F j by (3.7.1) → E j = − E j = F j − C j .
a α + β1a1 αa1α1 A1
p = 2 1 α .
a2α1 + αβ1a1 a2 A2
2
1 < < ,
A2 β2 α2 N A2 β 2 α 2
then the problem has a unique equilibrium point and each country pro-
duces two goods. The relative price is not dependent on any production
factor. From Eq. (2.7.19), we get
p1 =
(1 − α 0 pυ )A1αa1α1 + (α 0 pυ − α )A2 a2α 2 p
,
(2.7.22)
n + bpυ
Y α F K β j F1 N
= 1 1 + .
p1 K1 N1
Insert this equation into (2.7.23)
α ξ K β ξ N
X 1 = 1 1 + 1 1 − 1 F1 .
K1 N1
2.8 Public Goods and International Trade 63
( )
Substituting K1 = k K / 1 + k in (2.7.15) and N1 = α k N / 1 + α k ( ) in
(2.7.10) into the above equation yields
(α pυ − α ) α1 ξ 2
X 1 = 0 − ξ1 F1 .
1 − α 0 p α 2 ξ1
υ
37 By examining all possible cases in this simple model, one can obtain many of
the important insights that the traditional international trade theories provide. Add-
ing tariffs and transport costs to the model is conceptually easy and can provide
more insights into reality. In Sect. 2.8, we will introduce public good into the
model, showing how public goods may affect trade pattern.
38 With regard to public economics, see, Auerbach and Feldetein (1990, 1991)
and Jha (1998, 2003). For trade with public sectors, see, for instance, Manning and
McMillan (1979), Tawada and Abe (1984), Okamoto (1985), and Ishikawa
(1988).
39 Abe (1990) applies the cost-minimization approach, while this section uses
called good 1 and good 2 . There are two primary factors, labor and capi-
tal, and one pure public intermediate good. The total supplies of capital
and labor, K and N , are fixed. Let G stand for the amount of the public
intermediate good. For firms G is given. The economy produces two
goods with the following Cobb-Douglas production functions
F j = A j G j K j j N j j , j = 1, 2 , ν j ≥ 0 , α j , β j > 0 , α j + β j = 1, (2.8.1)
ν α β
where K p and N p are respectively capital and labor inputs of the public
sector and Ap is the productivity. Assume that the amount of public good
is fixed by the government and the public good production is financed by
the income tax.40 The total cost of the public sector is rK p + wN p . Mini-
mizing the total cost subject to the constraint (2.8.3), we obtain the follow-
ing marginal conditions
βpK p
ω= ,
αpNp
where ω ≡ w / r . From this equation and Eq. (2.8.3), we can express the
optimal levels of K p and N p as functions of r , w and G as follows
This assumption follows Abe (1990). Indeed, there are different ways of fi-
40
nancing public good sector (see Jha, 1998). In a growth model with public good
proposed by Zhang (2005a), tax rates on producers are fixed by the government.
The common approach to determining levels of public goods is to assume that the
government makes decision on tax and/or public goods by maximizing some so-
cial welfare function.
2.8 Public Goods and International Trade 65
Aα G βp (2.8.4)
Np = αp
, K p = Aβ Gω ,
ω
where
αp βp
βp 1 αp 1
Aα = , Aβ = .
α Ap β Ap
p p
Let τ stand for the tax rate on the total income, Y = rK + wN . Then
we have
rK p + wN p = τ (rK + wN ).
From this equation and (2.8.4), we can determine the tax rate as a function
of r , w and G
βp
τ 0Gω (2.8.5)
τ = ,
1 + nω
where
α
βp
βp
αp
1 N
τ 0 ≡ p + , n≡ .
β p α KAp K
p
We determine the tax rate as a function of the public good and the wage-
rental ratio. The amount of factors employed in each sector is constrained
by the endowments found in the economy. These resource constraints are
given
K1 + K 2 + K p = K , N1 + N 2 + N p = N . (2,8,6)
We have thus described the model for Home without trade. We can solve
equilibrium problem of Foreign’s economy in the same way. We now
examine how trade direction is determined.
pF1 ξ1 (2.8.8)
= .
F2 ξ2
Substituting r = α j p j F j / K j into the above equation yields k = ξ ,
where we use k = K1 / K 2 and ξ ≡ α1ξ1 / α 2ξ 2 . From Eqs. (2.8.2), we have
α1 p1 F1 α 2 p2 F2 β1 p1 F1 β 2 p2 F2
= , = .
K1 K2 N1 N2
From these relations, we have
N 1 = αN 2 , (2.8.9)
K β AG (2.8.12)
>ω p > α .
Aβ G N
2.8 Public Goods and International Trade 67
This implies that the amount of public good should not be too large for
given K and N ; otherwise the problem has no solution or the economy
may specialize in producing a single good.
From Eqs. (2.8.11) and (2.8.10), we obtain
(2.8.13)
Ω(ω ) ≡ ω + (Aβ − α 0 Aα )
G β K
ω p − = 0,
α0 N α0 N
where
α1 (1 + 1 / ξ ) α1ξ1 + α 2ξ 2
α0 ≡ = .
β1 (1 + 1 / α ) β1ξ1 + β 2ξ 2
The equation contains a single variable, ω . In the case of Aβ − α 0 Aα = 0 ,
we solve ω = K / α 0 N . We note that by the definitions of the parameters
we have
Aβ − α 0 Aα =
[(α p ]
− α 1 )ξ1 + (α p − α 2 )ξ 2 Aα
.
(2.8.14)
β p (β1ξ1 + β 2ξ 2 )
Section 2.8.2 solves the equilibrium problem when there is no trade be-
tween the two economies. We cannot solve the problem explicitly without
β p G −α p K − (Aβ − α 0 Aα )Gα pω
βp
1 + (Aβ − α 0 Aα ) ω = > 0.
α0 N α 0ωN
Hence, we have dω / dG > 0 . We conclude that the sign of dω / dG is the
opposite to that of Aβ − α 0 Aα . From (2.8.14), we see that the sign of
dω / dG is the same as the sign of the following term
ξ ≡ (α1 − α p )ξ1 + (α 2 − α p )ξ 2 . (2.8.16)
The above discussions are valid for Foreign as well. As the two countries
are identical (except in G 43), we see that in the case of ξ > 0 , if
~ ~
G > (<) G , then ω > (<) ω~ ; and in the case of ξ < 0 , if G > (<) G ,
then ω < (>) ω~ , when the two countries are in isolation.
We now compare p and ~ p . From Eqs. (2.8.1) and (2.8.2), we have
αβ 2 A2 Gν 2 K 2α 2 N 2β 2
p= .
β1 A1Gν1 K1α1 N1β1
Substituting N1 = αN 2 , and k = ξ into the above equation yields
α 2α 2 β 2β 2 A2
A= .
α1α1 β1β1 A1
βpK
ω > (<) .
αpN
This states that if the wage-rental ratio is higher (lower) than the ratio
β p K / α p N , then the public sector is relatively capital (labor) intensive.
We now examine trade pattern. First, we are concerned with the situa-
tion when the spillover effects of the public good are the same between the
two sectors, i.e., ν 1 = ν 2 . Then, by Eq. (2.8.17), we have
1 dp (Aβ − α 0 Aα )(α1 − α 2 )
=
[ ]
p dG 1 + (Aβ − α 0 Aα )β p Gω −α p / α 0 N ω α p α 0 N
.
Lemma 2.8.1
Assume that the two countries have identical preferences, technology, and
factor endowments, and the spillover effects of the public good are the
same between the two sectors. Then, if ∆ > (<) 0 and Home supplies
more public goods than Foreign, then Home exports (imports) good 2 and
imports (exports) good 1.
The case of ∆ > 0 occurs, for instance, if α p > α1 > α 2 . It can been
seen that with different combinations of α p , ξ j and α j , we have different
patterns of trade. Another extreme case is when α1 = α 2 . We have
1 dp ν 2 − ν 1 (2.8.19)
= .
p dG G
Lemma 2.8.2
Assume that the two countries have identical preferences, technology, and
factor endowments, and the two (private) sectors have the same factor in-
2.9 Concluding Remarks 71
tensities. Then, if Home supplies more public goods than Foreign and sec-
tor 1' s spillover effect is stronger (weaker) than sector 2' s , then Home
exports (imports) good 1 and imports good 2 .
From Eqs. (2.8.19) and (2.8.14), we can explicitly judge the sign of
dp / dG in the cases when ν 2 −ν 1 and ∆ have the same sign. If ν 2 −ν 1
and ∆ are positive (negative), then dp / dG is positive (negative). Hence,
we have the following lemma.
Lemma 2.8.3
Assume that the two countries have identical preferences, technology, and
factor endowments and Home supplies more public goods than Foreign. If
ν 2 −ν 1 and ∆ are positive (negative), then Home exports (imports) good
2 and imports (exports) good 1.
44 Abe applies the dual approach. Although the functional forms in Abe’s
analysis are more general than in this section, as we have explicitly solved the
model with different factor endowments, technology and preferences, we can eas-
ily discuss more issues which may not be easily discussed by the dual approach.
45 We don’t discuss issues related to validity of the core theorems in trade the-
See Jones and Kenen (1984), Ethier and Svensson (1986), Bhagwati (1991), and
46
Wong (1995).
47 See Steininger (2001: Chap. 2).
48 A graphical illustration of this case is referred to Bhagwati et al. (1998: Chap.
12).
49 The condition is presumed stability. See, Jones (1961) and Amano (1968) for
tends to worsen the terms of trade in Foreign (that is, p2 / p1 falls) and en-
courage the terms of trade in Home (that is, p1 / ( p2 + p2τ ) rises).50
Appendix
50 The well-known Metzler (1949: 7-8) paradox states that a tariff may actually
sented in Rivera-Batiz and Oliva (2003: Sect. 1.2). See also Wilson (1980), Flam
and Helpman (1987), Stokey (1991), and Matsuyama (2000, 2007). It should be
noted that Dornbusch et al. (1980) propose a model with continuum of goods to ex-
amine Heckscher-Ohlin trade theory.
52 An alternative description is to take an interval [0 , ∞ ]. See Elliot (1950).
74 2 Classical International Trade Theories
z * = φ (ω ). (A.2.1.1)
Hence, for a given relative wage ω , Home and Foreign will respec-
tively efficiently produce the rages of commodities as follows
0 ≤ z ≤ φ (ω ), φ (ω ) ≤ z ≤ 1.
The relative price of a commodity z in terms of any other commodity
z ' , when both goods are produced in Home, is equal to the ratio of home
unit labor cost
p( z ) a(z ) (A.2.1.2)
= , 0 ≤ z ≤ φ (ω ).
p ( z ') a ( z ')
The relative price of a commodity z produced in Home in terms of any
other commodity z" produced in Foreign is given by
p( z ) ωa( z ) (A.2.1.3)
= , 0 ≤ z ≤ φ (ω ), φ (ω ) ≤ z ≤ 1.
p(z") a~ (z")
Assume identical tastes in Home and Foreign and Cobb-Douglas demand
functions that associate with commodity z a constant expenditure, b ( z ).
We should have
~
b(z ) = b (z ), 0 ≤ z ≤ 1, ∫ b(z ) dz = 1.
1
Let Y stand for total income and c( z ) for demand for commodity z .
Then, we have
p( z )c( z ) (A.2.1.4)
b( z ) = .
Y
We define the fraction of income spent on those goods in which Home
has a comparative advantage
φ
dΛ
Λ(φ ) ≡ ∫ b(z ) dz > 0 , = b(φ ) > 0 , 1 > Λ (φ ) ≥ 0 .
0 dφ
The fraction of income spent on commodities produced by Foreign is
1
~ ~
Λ(φ ) ≡ 1 − ∫ b(z ) dz > 0 , 1 > Λ(φ ) ≥ 0 .
φ
Appendix 75
( )
A z*
( )
Λ z* N
~
( )
1− Λ z N
*
z*
Fig. A.2.1.1. Determination of equilibrium
~N~
rium levels of production. From Y = wN + w and Eq. (A.2.1.4), we de-
termine c( z ). Let N (z ) stand for the labor force employed for producing
commodity z . Then, the output level of commodity z is equal to
a (z )N ( z ). From c(z ) = a ( z )N ( z ), we determine N (z ).
We have thus determined the equilibrium of the Ricardian economy. We
now examine effects of changes in some parameters. First, we increase the
~
relative size of labor endowments. An increase in N / N shifts the trade
balance equilibrium curve given by (A.2.1.5) upward in proportion to the
change in the relative size. From Fig. A.2.1.2, we see that the equilibrium
ratio of the relative wages rise and reduces the range of commodities pro-
duced in Home. When the labor force is increased, there will initially be a
labor excess in Foreign and an excess demand for labor in Home. The re-
sulting increase in Home’s wages serves to eliminate the trade surplus and
at the same time raise relative unit labor costs in Home. This implies a loss
of comparative advantage of Home. We may similarly examine effects of
technological change (for instance, through a uniform proportional reduc-
tion in a~ ( z ) ).
( )
A z*
( )
Λ z* N
~
( )
1 − Λ z* N
z*
Fig. A.2.1.2. A rise in labor supply in foreign
3 Trade with Imperfect Competition
The Heckscher-Ohlin trade model had dominated work in the pure theory
of international trade before Krugmen and other trade economists devel-
oped new trade theory on the base of the monopolistic competitive model
proposed by Dixit and Stiglitz (1977). The concept of monopolistic com-
petition and modeling frameworks associated with type of imperfect com-
petition have been applied to various problems in macroeconomics, inter-
national and interregional economics, economic growth and development.
Monopolistic competition is characterized as follows:
(i) The products are differentiated. It consists of many buyers and sell-
ers. Unlike perfectly competitive firms, firms are characterized by signifi-
cant product differentiation. Consumers view firms’ products as imperfect
substitutes for each other.
(ii) The number of firms is so large that each firm ignores its strategic
interactions with other firms.
(iii) Entry is unrestricted and takes place until the profits of incumbent
firms are driven down to zero. Any firm can hire the inputs, such as labor
and capital, needed to compete in the market, and they can release these
inputs from employment when they do not need them.
We first introduce the model for an isolated economy. There are a large
number of potential goods and they enter a representative household’s util-
ity symmetrically. Assume the utility function takes the following form
U = ∑ ciθ , 1 < θ < 1,
i
θx
θ −1
(3.1.2)
pi = i , i = 1, ... , I .
λN
The assumptions of free exit and entry in market and profit maximiza-
tion implies that equilibrium profits are always zero. Profits of firm i , π i ,
are
π i = pi xi − (α + βxi )w ,
where w is the wage rate. Setting π i = 0 yields
αw αθ (3.1.5)
xi = = , i = 1, ... , I ,
p − β w (1 − θ )β
where we use Eqs. (3.1.3). As output per firm is equal, we can use x = xi
for all i . Insert Eqs. (3.1.4) in Eq. (3.1.4)
N (1 − θ ) (3.1.6)
I = .
α
This equation determines the number of firms actually operating in the
market. As the model is so simple, we have already solved its equilibrium
when constructing it. The procedure of determining all the variables are: I
by (3.1.6) → xi = x for all i by (3.1.5) → N i = α + βxi → ci = xi / N →
choose w = 1 → pi = p by (3.1.3).
To examine effects of trade, we assume that two countries of the kind de-
scribed in Sect. 3.1.1 open trade with each other. In the world economy,
there is a single production factor. We still use the symbol ~ as in Chap. 2.
We neglect any kind of transaction costs. We also assume that two coun-
3.1 A Trade Model with Monopolistic Competition 81
tries have the same taste and the same technologies. Because of the pres-
ence of increasing returns and each good is produced by only one country,
trade occurs and both may benefit from trade. The world economy will
produce a greater variety of goods.
Because of the assumed symmetry, the two economies will have the
same wage rate and the price of good produced in either country will be
the same. The direction of trade is indeterminate, even though one good is
produced only by one country. The volume of trade is determinate. Each
household maximizes the following utility
~
I I +I (3.1.7)
U = ∑ ciθ + ∑c θ
i , 1 < θ < 1,
i =1 i = n +1
~
where goods 1, ..., I are produced in Home and goods I + 1, ..., I + I in
Foreign. The numbers of goods produced in Home and Foreign can be de-
termined the full employment conditions. Similar to (3.1.6), we have
~
N (1 − θ ) ~ N (1 − θ ) (3.1.8)
I= , I = .
α α
Since all goods will have the same price, expenditures on each country’s
goods will be proportional to the country’s labor force. The share of im-
~
( ~
)
ports in Home will be N / N + N . The values of imports of each country
~
( ~
)
will be national income times the import share, i.e., wNN / N + N . Com-
paring the utility obtained in the closed economy and the utility in (3.1.7),
we conclude that the countries benefit from trade. This model shows that
economies of scale may give rise to trade and countries gain from trade
even when they are identical in tastes, technology and factor endowments.
The above example for demonstrating that trade is beneficial is sug-
gested in Krugman (1979). Another way suggested by Krugman (1980) in
demonstrating that trade benefits the world is to consider that there are two
industries (with many differentiated products within each industry). When
the two countries of the kind described in Sect. 3.1.1 trade, each will be a
net exporter in the industry for whose products it has the relatively larger
demand.
82 3 Trade with Imperfect Competition
Let C stand for the quantity index of the differentiated products, which is
specified as
n n~
1/ θ
(3.2.1)
C = ∑ ciθ + ∑ c~θi , 0 < θ < 1,
i =1 ~
i =1
where n is the number of products produced in Home and Foreign, ci is
the quantity of product i , and 1 / (1 − θ ) > 0 is the elasticity of substitution
between every pair of products. The utility function for all the consumers
is specified as
Cε
U = + Y , 0 < ε < 1,
ε
where Y is the consumption level of the homogeneous goods. The con-
sumer’s problem is divided into two steps.3 First, minimizing the cost of
obtaining given C yields
For similar issues, we also refer to Venables (1987), Kikuchi and Zeng
2
man, 1985).
3.2 The Ricardian Theory with Monopolistic Competition 83
1 / (θ −1)
p ~ (3.2.2)
di = γ i C , i = 1, ... , n , i = 1, ... , n~ ,
P
where pi is the price of good i and P is the price index given by
n~
(θ −1) / θ (3.2.3)
n
P = ∑ piθ / (θ −1) + ∑p θ / (θ −1)
~
i .
i =1 ~
i =1
Second, the consumer’s problem is to maximize the utility, dividing total
income between the differentiated products in aggregate and the homoge-
neous good. The demand function for C is given by
C = P 1 / (ε − 1 ) . (3.2.4)
n n~
ζ (3.2.5)
d i = pi1/ (θ −1) ∑ piθ / (θ −1) + ∑ p~θi / (θ −1) ,
i =1 ~
i =1
where
θ −ε
ζ ≡ .
(ε − 1)θ
Differentiated products are supplied by monopolistically competitive
firms. Let α and β represent respectively the fixed cost and constant
marginal cost in Home and Foreign. As the numbers of firms are assumed
to be large, the elasticity of demand for each product is 1 / (1 − θ ). Thus,
each product is priced at a markup over marginal cost
β (3.2.6)
pi = .
θ
Before examining trade pattern, we look at the autarky case (that is,
n~ = 0 ). Assume that n A firms with marginal cost β are active in Home.
By (3.2.6) we see that the prices are the same, equaling pi = β / θ . Thus
we can drop index i . The profit for each firm is
θ / (1 − θ )
A θ θ / (1 − θ ) ζ
(3.2.7)
θ
π = ( p − β ) x − α = (1 − θ ) n −α,
β β
84 3 Trade with Imperfect Competition
where we use Eq. (3.2.5). In the case of ε > (<) θ , the profit rises (falls) in
the number of firms. In the case of ε > θ , the differentiated products
would be complements rather than substitutes. To exclude this case, we re-
quire ε < θ . Setting π = 0 , we solve the zero profit condition as follows
θ / (1 − θ )
α β θ / (1 − θ )
1/ ζ (3.2.8)
β
n =
A
.
θ 1 − θ θ
β θ / (θ −1) ~ θ / (θ −1) ζ
β α − α~
2(1 − θ )θ θ / (θ −1)
n ~
+ n = θ / (θ −1) ~θ / (θ −1) .
θ θ β −β (3.2.9)
Insert the right-hand side of (3.2.9) in the profit function
(α − α~ )β θ / (θ −1)
π = θ / (θ −1) ~θ / (θ −1) − α .
(3.2.10)
β −β
It should be noted that the equilibrium number of firms for the case in
which only one country’s firms exist is
~ εθ / (θ − ε )
(1 − θ )
1/ ζ
~ β
n =
T
α~ , if n = 0 ;
θ
(1 − θ )
εθ / (θ − ε ) 1/ ζ (3.2.11)
β
n =
T
α , if n~ = 0 ,
θ
where T refers to the value in trading equilibrium. In free trade equilib-
rium with the co-existence of firms, the profit must be zero: π = π~ = 0 .
From (3.2.10), we see that this condition is satisfied only if the technology
index which is defined as
3.3 The Heckscher-Ohlin Theory with Monopolistic Competition 85
Λ≡
(β /β)
~ ( θ / 1−θ )
,
α / α~
is equal to unity. If Λ ≠ 1, one country produces only the homogeneous
good and the other country produces both kinds of goods. This implies that
the co-existence of both countries’ firms in the monopolistically competi-
tive sector is very unlikely in a trading equilibrium.
Lemma 3.2.1
If Λ > (<) 1, only Foreign (Home) firms produce differentiated products
and Foreign (Home) is an exporter of differentiated products. Intra-
industry trade occurs only when Λ = 1. 4
This lemma implies that if the two countries are different in technolo-
gies, then intra-industry trade would not occur in the Chamberlinian-
Ricardian model.
This section analyzes the interplay between factor abundance and agglom-
eration forces, basing on a model of agglomeration by Epifani (2005). The
model synthesizes the Heckscher-Ohlin theory and the monopolistic com-
petition.5 As the model takes account of more forces than the traditional
trade models, it tends to predict more possible patterns of trade.
Consider a world economy with two countries, called Home and Foreign,
and two industries, indexed by 1 and 2 . There are two internationally im-
mobile production factors, capital and labor, respectively denoted by
K and N . 6 The two countries have identical preferences and technology.
~ ~
Assume that Home is capital abundant, i.e., K / N > K / N . The two indus-
tries are monopolistically competitive à la Dixit and Stiglitz, and produce
differentiated goods under increasing returns to scale. Both industries incur
identical ice berg transport costs: τ ( > 1 ) units must be shipped from one
country in order that one unit arrives in the other country. The price indi-
ces for the two industries, q j , are defined by
[
q j = n j p1j−σ + n~ j ( ~
p jτ ) 1−σ ](
1 / 1−σ )
, j = 1, 2 , (3.3.1)
6 Here, we are concerned with the equations relative to Home, as those for For-
x=
(σ − 1)α
= 1.
(3.3.3)
β
The equilibrium output is the same across firms and industries. The unit
cost functions, C j , for the inputs of the two industries are
where 0 < δ , γ < 1. Here, δ is the share of own industry output in total
cost in the two industries.
Let K j and N j stand for the distribution of capital and labor between
the two industries. The two factors are fully employed. That is
K1 + K 2 = K , N1 + N 2 = N .
From these equations and Eqs. (3.3.4) the shares of capital and labor in to-
tal cost are
wN1 = (1 − δ )γn1 p1 , w(N − N1 ) = (1 − δ )(1 − γ )n2 p2 ,
Like in Sect. 2.3, we are interested in the situation in which both industries
are active in the absence of trade costs.8 In the rest of the section, specify
~ ~ (3.3.8)
N = K = 0.7 , K = N = 1, σ = 5 , γ = 0.8 .
Home is capital abundant and Foreign is labor abundant. Introduce the
share, s2 , of the capital-intensive industry’s output in Home and the share,
~s1 , of the labor-intensive industry’s output in Foreign as
p 2 n2 ~
p n~
s2 = , ~
s1 = ~ ~ 1 1~ ~ .
p1n1 + p2 n2 p1n1 + p2 n2
The next section is only concerned with the parameter values which guarantee
7
a unique equilibrium point. It can be demonstrated that the model may have multiple
equilibrium points.
8 This occurs when the difference between two countries’ factor ratios is not too
large.
9 The illustrations in this section are based the plots in Epifani (2005).
3.3 The Heckscher-Ohlin Theory with Monopolistic Competition 89
0.75
s2 = ~
s1 (δ = 0.5)
0.65
s2 = ~
s1 (δ = 0)
0 .5 τ
τ
1 1.5 2 2.5
Fig. 3.3.1. Trade costs, agglomeration and specialization
The effects on the behavior of factor prices are plotted in Fig. 3.3.2. The
rental/wage ratios in the two countries are plotted as functions of trade
costs. The solid and dashed monotonic curves represent the ratios in Home
and Foreign, respectively, in the case of δ = 0 . In the absence of the link-
ages for agglomeration, as trade costs fall, the factor price ratios converge,
as predicted in the traditional trade theory. As the parameters are specified
such that the two goods will be produced in the absence of trade costs, we
have factor price equalization in the free trade equilibrium. The solid and
dashed nonmonotonic curves represent the ratios in Home and Foreign, re-
spectively, in the case of δ > 0 . There are relative factor price conver-
gence and divergence as trade costs vary. The factor price equalization is
achieved at τ = τ . As demonstrated in the figure, when the two similar
countries become sufficiently integrated, in each country the abundant fac-
tor becomes relatively expensive. This is due to agglomeration forces, by
which specialization due to comparative advantage is strengthened and
hence exacerbate the traditional Stolper-Samuelson effect.
90 3 Trade with Imperfect Competition
1.4
~ ~ (δ = 0)
r /w
~ ~ (δ = 0.5)
r /w
r / w (δ = 0.5)
r / w (δ = 0)
0.7 τ
τ
1 1.5 2 2 .5
The model is proposed by Brander (1981) and Brander and Krugman (1983).
10
(1967), Grubel (1970), Grubel and Lloyd (1975). Krugman (1981) proposes a
formal model with Chamberlinian monopolistic competition to explain intraindus-
try trade.
3.4 Oligopoly and Intraindustry Trade 91
π = p(q )x + ~p (q~ )X − cx − (c + τ )X − f ,
~ ~ ~
π~ = p(q )~x + ~p (q~ )X − c~X − (c~ + τ )~x − f . (3.4.2)
The first-order conditions for the two firms for a Cournot-Nash equilib-
rium are thus given by
∂π (3.4.3a)
= p (q ) + p ' (q )x − c ≤ 0 ,
∂x
∂π (3.4.3b)
p (q~ ) + ~
= ~ p ' (q~ )X − (c + τ ) ≤ 0 ,
∂X
∂π~ (3.4.3c)
= p(q ) + p' (q )~
x − (c~ + τ ) ≤ 0 ,
∂~x
∂π~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ (3.4.3d)
~ = p (q ) + p ' (q )X − c ≤ 0 .
∂X
We are interested in whether (3.4.3) has an interior solution with all the
four variables being positive. For an interior solution, inequalities are re-
placed by equalities.
Substituting q = x + ~
x into (3.4.3a) and (3.4.3c) yields
92 3 Trade with Imperfect Competition
p(x + ~
x ) + p' (x + ~
x )x − c = 0 ,
p(x + ~
x ) + p' (x + ~
x )~
x − (c~ + τ ) = 0 . (3.4.4)
c − p( z ) ~ c~ + τ − p( z ) (3.4.6)
x= , x= .
p' (z ) p' (z )
The solutions are positive if
p(z ) > max {c , c~ + τ }. (3.4.7)
As
c + c~ + τ p' ( z )z
p(z ) = − ,
2 2
we see that it is not strict to require (3.4.7). In particular, if c = c~ , the ine-
quality is always satisfied. We thus solved positive x and ~ x . Similarly,
~ ~
from q = X + X and Eqs. (3.4.3b) and (3.4.3d), we can show that if
~
3~p ' (~
z)+ ~
p" (~
z )~
z < 0 , then we have positive solutions X and X .
For illustration, we examine (3.4.4). Plot x and ~ x respectively in the
horizontal and vertical axes. The slopes of the two curves are given by
d~
x − p'
( 4.5.3 a ) = − 1,
dx p' + xp"
d~
x p' (3.4.8)
= − 1.
2 p' + ~
( 4.5.3 c )
dx x p"
3.4 Oligopoly and Intraindustry Trade 93
~
x
p + p' x − c = 0
x − (c~ + τ ) = 0
p + p' ~
x
Fig. 3.4.1. Equilibrium in Home
If p' + xp" < 0 and 2 p' + ~x p" < 0 , 12 then in the Home market the reac-
tion function of the firm in Home is steeper than the reaction function of
the firm in Foreign. We see that there is a unique equilibrium point in the
Home market where the both economies supply the identical product in
~
Home. Similarly, in the Foreign market, if ~ p ' + X~
p" < 0 and
~ ~
2 p ' + Xp" < 0 , then the both economies supply the identical product in
Foreign. These discussions show that if these conditions are satisfied, then
the world has a unique equilibrium at which the both economies supply the
identical product in the both markets. It should be remarked that the unique
equilibrium point is guaranteed under less strict conditions, that is,
p ' + xp" < 0 and p ' + ~
x p" < 0 . 13
The phenomenon that the both countries supply the identical product in
the both markets is called intraindustry (two-way) trade, or “cross-hauling”
of, of an identical product. Because the markets are segmented, the prices
of the commodity in different markets may be different. For illustration,
assume that the two countries have the same marginal cost and the same
demand curve, that is, c = c~ and p( z ) = p (z ), and the transport cost is
positive (and not very high so that the existence of an interior solution is
~
guaranteed). Due to symmetry, in equilibrium p = ~ p , x = X and ~
x = X.
The intraindustry trade exists even if it is wasteful from the two countries’
~
point of view. From Eqs. (3.4.6), we have x > ~ x and X > X . We see that
each firm receives a smaller per unit profit from the other market than
from its own market. Brander and Krugman (1983) term this phenomenon
as “reciprocal dumping”.14
Transport costs play an important role in this model. Taking derivatives
of Ω( z ) = 0 with respect to τ yields
dz 1
= < 0.
dτ 3 p ' (z ) + p" z
The total consumption in Home falls as the transport cost rises. From
(3.4.6), we have
dx p ' + xp" dz d~
x 2 p ' (z ) + xp"
=− > 0, = < 0.
dτ p' dτ dτ (3 p ' + p" z ) p '
An increase in the transport cost increases domestic supply but discour-
ages import. If the transport cost is increased sufficiently large so that
~
x = 0 , the corresponding value of the transport cost, denoted by τ~ , is
called the critical value of τ . Similarly, we denote τ c the critical value of
τ for the domestic firm below which the home export is positive. We sup-
pose τ c < τ~ . Then we have three different possibilities: (1) intraindustry
trade exists if τ < τ c < τ~ ; (2) one-way trade exists with the foreign firm
exporting if τ c < τ < τ~ ; and (3) no trade exists if τ c < τ~ < τ .
We introduced the basic model of intraindustry trade. The model has
been extended and generalized in different ways. For instance, the model
with arbitrage but zero transport cost is referred to Markusen (1981).15
14 If the prices in the markets are different, at least one firm is dumping. It should
be remarked that Fung (1991) demonstrates that if the firms can collude, then no in-
traindustry trade will exist. Nevertheless, if the goods are differentiated, intraindustry
trade is still possible even if the firms collude.
15 Our discussions are limited to Cournot competition. Wong (1995) also analyzes,
for instance intraindustry trade when free entry and exit are allowed. It is also impor-
tant to study what will happen if the markets are characterized by Bertrand competi-
tion. See for instance, Tirole (1988), Venables (1990), and Ben-Zvi and Helpman
(1992).
3.5 Trade Pattern and Variable Returns to Scale 95
Total supplies of capital and labor, K and N , are fixed. The economy
produces two goods with the following Cobb-Douglas production func-
tions with variable returns to scale18
F j = φ j (F j )K j 0 j N j 0 j , j = 1, 2 , α 0 j , β 0 j > 0 , α 0 j + β 0 j = 1, (3.5.1)
α β
α 0 j p j Fj β 0 j p j Fj (3.5.2)
r= , w= .
Kj Nj
φ j (F j ) = A0 j F j j , A0 j > 0 , ν j < 1.
ν
16 Under variable returns to scale, the core theorems of the trade theory may be-
approach to obtaining the comparative statics results. See also Kemp (1969) and
Helpman (1984) for the approach. The economic environment in this section is
almost the same as that of Ide and Takayama.
18 This kind of functions is used widely now in the literature of economic the-
ory with variable returns to scale. In the trade theory, we refer to, for instance,
Mayer (1974a), Markusen and Melvin (1981), and Panagariya (1986).
96 3 Trade with Imperfect Competition
where
(
1 / 1−ν j ) α0 j β0 j
A j ≡ A0 j , αj ≡ , βj ≡ .
1 −ν j 1 −ν j
αkN N (3.5.6)
N1 = , N2 = .
1 + αk 1 + αk
α β
Substituting F j = A j K j j N j j into β 01 p1 F1 / N1 = β 02 p2 F2 / N 2 yields
(1 + k )α −α (1 + αk )β − β k α + β −1 = α 0 ,
2 1 2 1 1 1 (3.5.8)
where we use
β 02 A2 K α 2 −α1 N β 2 − β1
α0 ≡ .
α β1 −1β 01 pA1
Two goods are produced if k > 0 . As shown in Sect. 2.3, even when
υ1 = υ 2 = 0 , it is difficult to explicitly interpret economic conditions that
the economy will produce two goods.19 We assume that the good prices
and factor endowments are fixed at such values that Eq. (3.5.8) has a
meaningful solution. As we are mainly interested in comparative statics
analysis, this assumption is acceptable. Once we solve k , it is straightfor-
ward to solve all the other variables. From k = K1 / K 2 and K1 + K 2 = K ,
we have
kK K (3.5.9)
K1 = , K2 = .
1+ k 1+ k
The labor distribution is given by Eqs. (3.5.6). As the distributions of the
factor endowments are already determined, it is straightforward for us to
calculate the output levels and factor prices.
As the production functions are not neoclassical, in general the wage
and rate of interest will not be determined as functions of capital intensi-
ties, K j / N j . By Eqs. (3.5.2) and (3.5.3), we have
ing the capital inputs ratio, we can solve the problem with computer when the pa-
rameter values are specified.
98 3 Trade with Imperfect Competition
βr βw (3.5.10)
r= , w= ,
(1 + k ) (1 + αk )
α 2 −1 β2
(1 + k ) (1 + αk )
α2 β 2 −1
α − α1 α (β 2 − β1 ) α1 + β1 − 1
−1
∆ ≡ 2 + + .
1+ k 1 + αk k
From Eqs. (3.5.11), we get
1 dF1 1 1 α −1 αβ 2 dk
= − + − 2 − ,
F1 dp p k (1 + k ) 1 + k 1 + αk dp
1 dF2 α 2 αβ 2 dk
= + ,
F2 dp 1 + k 1 + αk dp
3.5 Trade Pattern and Variable Returns to Scale 99
d (F1 / F2 ) ∆ k (3.5.14)
= − + 1 2 ,
dp k p
where we use
1 dr α −1 αβ 2 dk
= − 2 + .
r dp 1 + k 1 + αk dp
In general, it is difficult to explicitly interpret economic conclusions of
comparative statics analysis.20 It should be noted that we solved the prob-
lem and provide a computational procedure, it is straightforward to simu-
late the model. For simplicity of illustration, we require α = 1, that is,
α 01 = α 02 . By (3.5.12), the two sectors have the same capital intensity.
The capital input ratio is now determined by
(1 + k )θ −θ k θ −1 = αˆ ,
2 1 1 (3.5.15)
where we use
1 A2
αj + βj =θj ≡ > 0 , αˆ ≡ > 0,
1 −ν j pA1 K N β 01θ
α 01θ
θ ≡ θ1 − θ 2 .
We also have
dk
=−
(1 + k )k .
(3.5.16)
dp [(θ 2 − 1)k + θ1 − 1]p
As θ j − 1 = ν j / (1 − ν j ), we see that θ j − 1 is positive (zero, negative) if
sector j exhibits increasing (constant, decreasing) returns to scale. If the
two sectors exhibit increasing (decreasing) returns to scale,21 then the capi-
tal input ratio falls (rises) as the relative price is increased (decreased). If
one sector exhibits increasing returns and the other sector decreasing re-
turns to scale, then the effects are ambiguous. Equations (3.5.10) now be-
come
βr βw (3.5.17)
r= , w= .
(1 + k ) θ 2 −1
(1 + k ) θ 2 −1
Hence, we have
1 dr 1 dw 1 − θ 2 dk
= = ,
r dp w dp 1 + k dp
d (w / r ) (3.5.18)
= 0.
dp
The wage-rental ratio is not affected by changes in the relative price. The
sign of dw / dp is the opposite to that of (θ 2 − 1)dk / dp . If the both sectors
exhibit increasing (decreasing) returns to scale, then the wage and rate of
interest rise. If one sector exhibits increasing returns and the other sector
decreasing returns to scale, then the effects are ambiguous.
From Eqs. (3.5.9) and (3.5.12), we have
d (w / r )
= 0,
dp
dK1 dK 2 1 dk
=− = ,
dp dp 1 + k dp
1 dN j 1 dK j
= .
N j dp K j dp
We have
1 dF1 θ1
=−
F1 dp [(θ 2 − 1)k + θ1 − 1] p
3.5 Trade Pattern and Variable Returns to Scale 101
1 dF2 θ 2k
= ,
F2 dp [(θ 2 − 1)k + θ1 − 1]p
1 d (F1 / F2 ) θ1 + θ 2 k
=− .
F1 / F2 dp [(θ 2 − 1)k + θ1 − 1] p
If the two sectors exhibit increasing returns to scale, then if the relative
price rises, the output of sector 1 and the ratio between sector 1' s and sec-
tor 2' s output levels are increased and sector 2' s output level is increased.
We thus have the following lemma.22
Lemma 3.5.1
Let α 01 = α 02 . Then, the price-output responses are normal if the two sec-
tors exhibit decreasing returns to scale.23
22 Ide and Takayama (1991) show that if A is positive, then the price-output
responses are normal.
23 Here, “the price-output responses are normal” means that when the price of a
good is increased, the output of the good is increased and the output of the other
good is reduced.
102 3 Trade with Imperfect Competition
1 dw α 2 θ 2 − 1 dk
= − ,
w dK K 1 + k dK
d (w / r ) 1
= > 0.
dK K
From Eqs. (3.5.9) and (3.5.12), we have
1 dK1 1 dK 1 dk
= + ,
K1 dK K dK (1 + k )k dK
1 dK 2 1 dK 1 dk
= − ,
K 2 dK K dK (1 + k ) dK
1 dK1 1 dk
= ,
N1 dK (1 + k )k dK
1 dN 2 1 dk
=− .
N 2 dK (1 + k ) dK
From (3.5.19), we have
1 dF1 α 2 1 + k − θ 2 k dk
= + ,
F1 dK K (1 + k )k dK
1 dF2 α 2 θ k dk
= − 2 ,
F2 dp K (1 + k ) dK
1 d (F1 / F2 ) dk
= .
F1 / F2 dp dK
We see that the existence of invariable returns to scale makes the core
theorems in trade theory invalid under certain conditions.
There are many important issues which can be further examined within the
model proposed here. We can simulate the model with various combina-
tions of the parameters. We may also study what will happen if we use
some other production functions. Like in Ide and Takayama (1991), we
3.6 Transboundary Pollution and Trade 103
F jb = N jb , j = 1, 2 ,
where F jb and N jb are respectively the output of goods b and the amount
of labor devoted to b production in country j .
Assume that the output of goods b reduces the productivity of labor in
the production of goods a via a pollution externality. The production
technology for producing goods a is
F ja = (1 − β j F1b − γ j F2 b )N ja , j = 1, 2 . (3.6.1)
where F ja and N ja are respectively the output of goods a and the amount
of labor devoted to a production in country j . The parameter β1 repre-
sents the degree to which local pollution from b production in country 1
harms labor productivity in a production, while β 2 represents the degree
to which transboundary pollution from b production in country 1 harms
labor productivity in country 2 ’s production. We can similarly interpret
γ j . The quantity (β j F1b + γ j F2 b ) measures the total amount of pollution
Autarky
We now examine the case that countries do not trade but production of
goods b in each country does affect the productivity of labor in a produc-
tion in the other country. Given the linear production technology for the
production of goods b , equilibrium entails w j / p jb = 1. Hence, by Eqs.
(3.6.2)
c jb = F jb = ξN j , j = 1, 2
From these equations and Eqs. (3.6.1), the marginal product of labor in
country j is 1 − ξ (β j N1 + γ j N 2 ) . Equilibrium consumption and produc-
tion in the market for goods a is
[ ]
c ja = F ja = (1 − ξ ) 1 − ξ (β j N1 + γ j N 2 ) N j , j = 1, 2 .
With wages in terms of goods b equal to one in each country, the rela-
tive price of goods b is the wage in terms of goods a , i.e.
p jb
= 1 − ξ (β j N1 + γ j N 2 ), j = 1, 2 .
p ja
3.6 Transboundary Pollution and Trade 105
The left hand side of the above equation represents the amount of pollu-
tion damage in country 1 in autarky, while the right hand side represents
the pollution damage incurred in country 2 . We see that the country with a
higher incidence of pollution will have a comparative advantage in goods
b due to the greater degree of damage to productivity in its a industry.
Two countries
We now consider a case that the two countries are neighboring and they
can trade with the rest of the world. They are so small that the prices of
two goods are fixed for them. Assume that the rest of the world is not af-
fected by pollution from the two economies. We show that the autarky
price ratios for the two countries are determined by the extent to which
they experience pollution in autarky. If country 1, for instance, experi-
ences higher levels of pollution than country 2 , it will have a comparative
advantage in b production as its a industry is less productive than coun-
try 2 ’s in autarky. The remainder of this section is limited to inequality
(3.6.3). If inequality is reversed, the trade is reversed.
Proposition 3.6.1
If inequality (3.6.3) holds, then trading equilibrium is described as follows
(i) If ξ > N1 / ( N1 + N 2 ), then country 1 is specified in producing goods b
and country 2 is diversified. Equilibrium wages are given by
w1 w w
= 2 = 1, 1 = 1 − γ 2 [ξN 2 − (1 − ξ )N1 ] − β 2 N1 ,
p1b p1b p1a
w1 w
= 2.
p1a p1a
(ii) If ξ ∈ (ξ 0 , N1 / ( N1 + N 2 )), country 1 is specified in goods b and
country 2 is specified in goods a . Equilibrium wages are
w1 w
= 1, 2 =
(1 − ξ )N1 , w1 = ξN 2 (1 − β N ),
ξN 2 p1a (1 − ξ )N1
2 1
p1b p1b
w2
= 1 − β 2 N1 .
p1a
106 3 Trade with Imperfect Competition
ξ0 ≡
(1 − β1 N1 )N1 ,
(1 − β1 N1 )N1 + (1 − β 2 N1 )N 2
1 + ξ (β 1 N 1 + β 2 N 1 )
β0 ≡
2 β1
{[1 + ξ (β N
1 1 + β 2 N1 )] − 4 β1ξ (N1 + N 2 )
2
} 1/ 2
.
2 β1
The proof is referred to Benarroch and Thille (2001). The proposition
implies that the terms of trade change for each country relative to the au-
tarky price even if it remains diversified.
4 Trade with Factor Mobility
1 The same issue is examined by Leamer (1984), Ethier and Svensson (1986).
This section is much influenced by Wong (1995), even though we follow the ap-
proach in Sect. 2.3. It should be remarked that one might also consider another
possibility in the model with two sectors and three factors which allows capital to
move internationally freely but makes some of the factors to be sector-specific
(see, Batra and Casas, 1976; Das and Lee, 1979). Following Batra and Casas
(1973) and Der (1979), we may introduce intermediate products into the basic
model and examine the core theorems with intermediate products.
108 4 Trade with Factor Mobility
of the trade model with variable returns to scale in Sect. 3.4 and the model
with international capital mobility in Sect. 4.1. Section 4.3 is concerned with
a model of emigration and wage inequality proposed by Marjit and Kar.
Rather than following the dual approach accepted by Marjit and Kar, we will
use the approach as in the previous sections. The model deals with issues re-
lated to trade and wage inequality for developing economies. Section 4.4 in-
troduces a model with Chamberlinian agglomeration, basing on the core-
periphery model proposed by Krugman. The model studies interactions
among transport costs, increasing returns at the firm level, and supply and
demand linkages.
This section studies the validity of the four fundamental trade theorems,
the factor equalization theorem, the Rybczynski theorem, the Stolper-
Samuelson theorem, and the Heckscher-Ohlin theorem, in the presence of
international capital movement. We are still concerned with a model simi-
lar to the 2× 2 model analyzed in Sect. 2.3. The 2× 2 model is extended
in two ways. Capital moves freely between countries. Moreover, land is
considered as a production factor. The three-factor model still has two
immobile factor endowments, labor and land. Almost all the symbols have
the same definitions as in Sect. 2.3. We will define new variables. Let L
stand for the total fixed amount of land and L j for the amount of land used
by industry j .
The economy produces two goods with the following Cobb-Douglas pro-
duction functions
α β ς
F j = A j K j j N j j L j j , j = 1, 2 , (4.1.1)
α j , β j , ς j > 0 , α j + β j + ς j = 1,
Let w , r , and R stand for wage, rate of interest, and land rent respec-
tively. Here, the rate of interest is exogenously fixed. Three prices,
p1 , p2 , r are fixed exogenously and wage and land rent, w and R are de-
termined endogenously. Profits of the two sectors, π j , are given by
4.1 A Two-Good, Three-Factor Model with Capital Mobility 109
π j = p j F j − wN j − rK j − RL j .
Marginal conditions for maximizing profits are given by
α j p j Fj β j p j Fj ς j p j Fj (4.1.2)
r= , w= , R= .
Kj Nj Lj
α β ς
From r = α j p j F j / K j and F j = A j K j j N j j L j j , we solve
(
1/ 1 − α j )
α p A N β j Lς j
Kj = j j j j j .
r
Dividing the above two equations yields
k=r α (α p A N
1 1 1
β1
1 Lς11 )
1 / (1 − α1 )
,
(α p A N
2 2 2
β2
2 Lς22 )
1 / (1 − α 2 )
where
α 2 − α1
α≡ .
(1 − α1 )(1 − α 2 )
Substituting Eqs. (4.1.4) and (4.1.5) into the above equation yields
1 = r0 (1 + βk ) 1 (1 + ςk ) 2 , (4.1.6)
r r
where
r0 ≡ r α
(α p A (βN )
1 1 1
β1
(ςL )ς 1
)(
1 / 1 − α1 )
,
(α 2 p 2 A2 N L )
β2 ς 2 1 / (1 − α 2 )
β2 β1 ς2 ς1
r1 ≡ − , r2 ≡ − .
1 − α 2 1 − α1 1 − α 2 1 − α1
We assume that Eq. (4.1.6) has a unique positive solution.2 This implies
that Home produces two goods. For a positive k , all the variables are de-
termined by the following procedure: N j by (4.1.4) → L j by (4.1.5) →
K E = K − K1 − K 2 → w and R by (4.1.2) → F j by (4.1.1).
From (4.1.2), we have
w=
(1 + βk )rβ1 K1 , R=
(1 + ςk )rς 1 K1 . (4.1.7)
α1 βkN ςkL
where
of this condition.
4.1 A Two-Good, Three-Factor Model with Capital Mobility 111
1 / (1 − α1 ) β1 / (1 − α1 ) ς 1 / (1 − α1 )
α p A β β1 N β1ς ς1 Lς1 k k
K1 = 1 1 1 .
r 1 + βk 1 + ςk
So long as two goods are produced, factor prices, (w , R ), are affected
by factor endowments. We see that the property of factor price insensitiv-
ity is not valid in general when factor mobility is allowed.
The factor price equalization theorem stated in Sect. 2.3 tells that if two
countries are engaged in free trade, having identical technologies but dif-
ferent factor endowments and if both countries produce both goods, then
the factor prices (w, R ) are equalized across the countries. As (w, R ) are
affected by the factor endowments, the factor price equalization theorem
does not hold when factor mobility is allowed.
Another well-known question in the trade literature is that when product
prices are changed, how the factor prices will be changed. Taking deriva-
tives of Eqs. (4.1.7) with respect to p1 and p2 results in
1 dw
= 1 −
(β − ς )ς 1 p0 1
,
w dp1 (1 + βk )(1 + ςk )(1 − α1 ) (1 − α1 ) p1
1 dR
= 1 −
(ς − β )β1 p0 1
,
R dp1 (1 + βk )(1 + ςk )(1 − α1 ) (1 − α1 ) p1
1 dw [(β − ς )ς 1k − (1 + ςk )α 1 ] p0
= ,
w dp2 (1 + ςk )(1 + β k )(1 − α 2 ) p2 k
on the economic equilibrium. This implies that the four core theorems may
not be held in general. For illustration, we are concerned with a special
case of α1 = α 2 .
β 2 − β1
r1 = − r2 = .
1 − α1
We assume that the parameter values satisfy: k > 0 . From Eqs. (4.1.2), we
get
ς 1 / (1 − α1 )
β (α p A )
1 / (1 − α1 )
L1
w = 1 1 α11 / (11 − α1 ) ,
α 1r N1
β1 / (1 − α1 )
ς (α p A )
1 / (1 − α1 )
N1
R = 1 1 α11 / (11 − α1 ) ,
α 1r L1
α * β1 (4.1.10)
ς (α p A )
1 / (1 − α1 )
p1 A1 β β 2
R = 1 1 α11 / (11 − α1 ) ,
α 1r p2 A2ς
α2
where we also use (4.1.9) and
1
α* ≡ .
(β 2 − β1 )(1 − α1 )
From Eqs. (4.1.10), the following lemma holds.
When trade takes place, then the prices, p1 , p2 , r , are equal across the
countries. As the two countries have the identical technologies, that is,
α j , β j and A j are identical across the countries, from Eqs. (4.1.10) we
see that Samuelson’s theorem holds even when we allow one factor to be
freely mobile under the strict condition of α1 = α 2 . This theorem says that
trade in goods may equalize factor prices across the countries even when
some production factors are immobile and some others are mobile.
From (4.1.4) and (4.1.5), we have
L1 L
− 2 = (ς 1 − ς 2 )
(1 + βk )(1 − α1 )L .
N1 N 2 (1 + ςk )β 2ς 2 βN
114 4 Trade with Factor Mobility
We now examine how the factor prices will be changed when product
prices are changed. Taking derivatives of Eqs. (4.1.10) with respect to p1
and p2 results in
1 dw − ς2
= < 0,
w dp1 (β 2 − β1 )(1 − α1 ) p1
1 dR β2
= > 0,
R dp1 (β 2 − β1 )(1 − α1 ) p1
1 dw α *ς 1 1 dR α *ς 1 (4.1.12)
= > 0, =− < 0.
w dp2 p2 R dp2 p2
From Eqs. (4.1.12), we have
p1 d (w / p1 ) 1 dw 1
= − < 0,
w dp1 w dp1 p1
p1 d (R / p1 ) β 2 − (β 2 − β1 )(1 − α1 ) (4.1.13)
= > 0.
R dp1 (β 2 − β1 )(1 − α1 ) p1
1 dk − (β − ς )r0 (4.1.14)
= > 0,
k dL (ς − r0 β )(r0 − 1)L
p1 F1 ξ1
= .
p2 F2 ξ 2
p1/ ( β 2 − β1 ) < ~
p 1/ ( β 2 − β1 ) .
p1 ~
p
< ~1 .
p2 p2
That is, when the two countries are in autarky, the relative price in Home
is lower than the relative price in Foreign. Hence, when the two countries
start to trade, good 1 is exported to Foreign and good 2 is imported from
Foreign. We have thus confirmed the Heckscher-Ohlin theorem.
This section is mainly concerned with whether the core theorems in the
traditional trade theory are valid when we allow one factor to be mobile. It
can be seen that in general (that is, when α1 ≠ α 2 ) the theorems are inva-
lid. But when α1 = α 2 , the core theorems are all held. As the condition of
α1 = α 2 implies that the internationally mobile factor affects symmetri-
cally the neoclassical production functions and the core theorems mainly
refer to the relative properties of the two sectors, it is reasonable to expect
that the core theorems hold under the requirement. Like in the previous
chapter, we may also extend our analysis to allow for differences in tech-
nology and taste within a multi-country world economy.3
knowledge accumulation.
118 4 Trade with Factor Mobility
would be worse off if they had not grown at all. This situation is termed as
immiserizing growth. This phenomenon was initially formally modeled by
Bhagwati (1958). Since then, immiserizing growth has been examined
with different models, emphasizing various aspects of trade, such as capi-
tal accumulation, tariff and quotas.5
This section is concerned with immiserizing growth. We are concerned
with a trade model with international factor mobility and variable returns
to scale. The model of this section is a synthesis of the trade model with
variable returns to scale in Sect. 3.4 and the model with international capi-
tal mobility in Sect. 4.1.6 In order to connect this section to the traditional
approaches, we will deal with the economic system proposed by Yabuchi
and Kakimoto (1991).7
The economy has two sectors, producing two goods, indexed by 1 and 2 .
The economy is endowed with three factors, capital, K , labor, N , and
land, L . The returns of the three factors are respectively r , w , and R .
Labor is a common factor, while capital and land are specific to sector 1
and sector 2 , respectively. It is assumed that returns to scale are variable
and external to firms.
The economy produces two goods with the following Cobb-Douglas
production functions with variable returns to scale
F1 = φ1 (F1 )K1α 0 N1β 01 , α 01 , β 01 > 0 , α 0 + β 01 = 1,
5 See Bhagwati (1958b), Johnson (1967a), Bertrand and Flatters (1971), Hamada
(1974), Brecher and Diaz-Alejandro (1977), Martin (1977), and Dei (1985).
6 It is easy to examine issues related to immiserizing growth in the models of
p2 (= 1), are given exogenously. Assume that labor and land are interna-
tionally immobile and capital is internationally mobile. As there is no cost
for factor mobility, the rate of interest is fixed in international market and
the wage rate is identical for the two sectors in the domestic market. For
individual firms, φ j (F j ) are given. The marginal conditions are
φ j (F j ) = A0 j F j j , A0 j > 0 , ν j < 1.
ν
where
(
1 / 1−ν j ) α0 β0 j ς0
A j ≡ A0 j , α≡ > 0, β j ≡ > 0, ς ≡ > 0.
1 − ν1 1 −ν j 1 −ν2
4.2.2 Equilibrium
N1 = θ1 K1(1−α )/ β1 , (4.2.9)
where
1 / β1
r
θ1 ≡ .
α 0 pA1
Insert Eq. (4.2.9) in Eq. (4.2.8)
N 2 = θ 2 K1(α + β1 −1)/ β1 ( β 2 −1) , (4.2.10)
where
1 / ( β 2 −1)
(α pA )1 / β1 β 01r 1−1 / β1
θ2 ≡ 0 1 .
β 02α 0 A2 Lς
Inserting Eqs. (4.2.9) and (4.2.10) in N1 + N 2 = N yields
where
α + β1 − 1 v (1 − ν 2 )
θ≡ = 1 .
β1 (β 2 − 1) β 01 (ν 2 − ς 0 )
It is reasonable to require β 01 − ν 1 > 0 and ς 0 − ν 2 > 0 . The require-
ments imply that any sector’s increasing returns to scale is not very strong.
In the reminder of this section, we require β 01 − ν 1 > 0 and ς 0 − ν 2 > 0 .
We have
β −ν (4.2.12)
Ω(0 ) > 0 , Ω(+ ∞ ) > 0 , Ω' = 01 1 θ1 K1−ν 1 / β 01 + θθ 2 K1θ −1 < 0 .
β 01
We see that Eq. (4.2.12) has a unique positive equation.8 Once we solve
K1 , we solve the other variables as follows: N 2 by (4.2.10) → N1 by
(4.2.9) → F j by (4.2.3) → w and R by (4.2.2) → Y by its definition →
C j by (4.2.4) → U = C1ξ1 C 2ξ 2 → X j by (4.2.6) → K E = K − K1 .
1 dU 1 dC1 1 dC 2 1 dY
= = = .
U dL C1 dL C2 dL Y dL
The effects on the utility level and consumption levels of the two goods
are ambiguous. We can see that an increase in land may be immiserizing
only when at least one sector is characterized of strong increasing returns
to scale. Otherwise, an increase in land benefits the households.
If good 1' s price is increased, the capital stock used by sector 1 falls. From
Eqs. (2.2.9) and N1 + N 2 = N , we obtain
dN1
=−
dN 2 N
=− 1 +
(1 − α )N1 dK1 < 0 .
dp dp β1 p β1 K1 dp
Some workers move from sector 2 to 1 as good 1' s relative price is in-
creased. From (4.2.3), we have
1 dF1 α dK1 β1 dN1 1 dF2 β dN 2
= + < 0, = 2 > 0.
F1 dp K1 dp N1 dp F2 dp N 2 dp
Sector 1' s real output falls and sector 2' s real output rises. The impact
on sector 2' s output is ambiguous. Taking derivatives of Eqs. (4.2.2) with
respect to p yields
1 dw 1 − β 2 dN 2 1 dR 1 dF2
=− < 0, = > 0.
p dp N 2 dp R dp F2 dp
4.3 A Trade Model with Emigration 125
The model is still a two good and three input specific-factor model as de-
veloped in Sect. 4.2. But the three sectors are now capital, unskilled work-
ers, and skilled workers. The two, unskilled and skilled, sectors are in-
dexed respectively with 1 and 2 . Assume that the unskilled sector
employs unskilled labor and capital and the skilled sector employs skilled
labor and capital. The two kinds of labor are the specific factors and capi-
tal is the mobile factor. Different from the model in Sect. 4.2 where capital
is sector-specific and labor is mobile, this section assumes that labor is sec-
tor-specific and capital is mobile. As this model is mainly referred to de-
veloping economies where technologically advanced sectors often co-exist
with primitive indigenous sectors and the two sectors use different types of
labor but have the same sources of capital, this assumption is reasonable.
9 There are a large number of the literature on relations between trade and wage
inequality for developing economies (e.g., Davis, 1998; Feenstra and Hanson,
1997, 2003; Jones and Marjit, 2003; Kar and Beladi, 2004).
126 4 Trade with Factor Mobility
where
1/ β 2
α p A
n ≡ 2 2 2 β1 N2 .
α1 p1 A1 N1
From Eqs. (4.3.3) and (4.3.4), we have
Ω(K1 ) ≡ K1 + nK1β1 / β 2 − K = 0 . (4.3.5)
Equation (4.3.5) has a unique solution as Ω(K1 ) has the following prop-
erties
4.3 A Trade Model with Emigration 127
β1nK1β1 / β 2 −1
Ω(0 ) < 0 , Ω(K ) > 0 , Ω' (K1 ) = 1 + > 0.
β2
Once we determine K1 by (4.3.5), it is straightforward to confirm that we
can determine uniquely all the other variables. We will denote the equilib-
rium values with circumflex accent.
α p w*β1 / α1 A N *
1/ β 2 (4.3.7)
K = 2 2 1 1/ α21 2
*
.
(β1 p1 A1 )
2
From this equation and K1* + K 2* = K , we solve
128 4 Trade with Factor Mobility
α p w*β1 / α1 A N *
1/ β 2 (4.3.8)
K = K − 2 2 1 1/ α21 2
*
.
(β1 p1 A1 )
1
If the world wage, w1* , is very high, then K1* negative; in other words,
all unskilled labor will emigrate. We assume, w1* , to be properly fixed so
that K1* is positive. Once we determine K1* by (4.3.8), we can determine
all the variables.
To examine the effects on the capital distribution, from (4.3.5) and
(4.3.8) we calculate
1/ β 2
α p w*β1 / α1 A N *
Ω(K ) ≡ − 2 2 1 1 / α21 2
*
+
(β1 p1 A1 )
1
β1 / β 2
α 2 p2 w1*β1 / α1 A2 N 2*
1/ β 2
(4.3.9)
nK − .
(β1 p1 A1 )
1 / α1
( )
As Ω(K1 ) rises in K1 and Ω Kˆ 1 = 0 , we see that if Ω(K1* ) > (<) 0 ,
then K * > (<) Kˆ . From (4.3.2), we see that for the both cases of the fac-
1 1
Kˆ 2 K 2*
< * , wˆ 2 < w2* .
ˆ
N2 N2
4.4 Human Capital Mobility and Chamberlinian Agglomeration 129
wˆ 2 w2* N * K * Kˆ α β N Kˆ
− * = 1 − 1 2* 1 1 2 1 2 .
wˆ 1 w1 N1 K1 Kˆ 2 β1α 2 N 2 Kˆ 1
K 2* Kˆ 1 K / K1* − 1
= > 1,
K1* Kˆ 2 K / Kˆ 1 − 1
where we use K 2 = K − K1 for the both cases, we see that in general the
impact on the wage gap is ambiguous.
We can similarly analyze the case when only skilled labor is interna-
tionally mobile. There are other possible cases. For instance, we may ex-
amine what will happen when capital and unskilled labor are mobile. An-
other important issue that we don’t mention is capital ownership. It is
possible that emigrants take capital with them.
10 This model is based on a model by Pflüger (2004). For similar issues, we re-
fer to Rauch (1991) and Ricci (1999).
11 Krugman’s 1991 paper on economic geography has brought about a large
number of publications in the literature of the NEG. See also Krugman and
Venables (1995), and Venables (1996). Comprehensive reviews on the literature
of the new economic geography are given by Fujita and Thisse (2002), Baldwin and
Martin (2004), Capello and Nijkamp (2004), and Henderson and Thisse (2004). The
new economic geography deals with many important issues which are not properly
treated by the traditional trade theories. This book will not further study the literature
in this new direction as it needs much space. It should be noted that my approach to
economic geography (which is a part of my integrated approach to economic dynam-
ics) with endogenous population, capital and knowledge was published in the early
1990s (for instance, Zhang, 1991a, 1991b, 1992, 1993a, 1993b).
130 4 Trade with Factor Mobility
among transport costs, increasing returns at the firm level, and supply and
demand linkages. The world is composed of two countries, Home and For-
eign, two factors of production, labor and human capital, N and H . We
use subscripts, i and a , to stand for two sectors, manufacturing and agri-
culture, respectively. Labor is intersectorally mobile and countries have
identical preferences, technology and trade costs. In the long-run, human
capital is mobile internationally, while labor is not. The agricultural good
is homogeneous, traded without costs ad produced perfectly competitively
under constant returns with labor as the only input. The agricultural good
is the numéraire and is assumed to be produced in both countries after
trade. Manufacturing sector is monopolistically competitive, employing
both factors to produce differentiated goods with a linear cost function.
Labor is a variable input and human capital enters only the fixed cost.
Trade in goods i is inhibited by iceberg costs.
There are N + H households, N labors and H human capital owners
each of whom supplies one unit of labor and human capital, respectively.
Let wl and wH stand for respectively their wages. Each household’s util-
ity is specified as
U = α ln Ci + ln C a ,
1-1/σ
D 1-1/σ D*
Ci = ∫ xk d k + dj
1-1/σ
0 ∫x j
, α > 0 , σ > 1,
D
where Ci is the manufacturing aggregate, C a is the consumption of the
agricultural good, xk and x j are respectively the levels of consumption of
a domestic variety k and a foreign variety j , D and D* are the number
of varieties produced in Home and Foreign and σ is the elasticity of sub-
stitution between manufacturing varieties. Iceberg transport costs are for-
malized by a constant τ , which implies that only 1 / τ of a unit of a for-
eign variety arrives for consumption and that the consumption price of an
imported variety j is τp j , where p j is the price set by a foreign firm. The
budget constraint is given by12
[
pCi + C a = Y , p = Dp1k−σ (k ) + D * (τp j )
1−σ
](
1 / 1−σ )
, τ > 1,
12 The utility function is also used by, for instance, Martin and Rogers (1995)
Let N a stand for labor input. We specify the production function of the
agricultural sector as Fa = N a . Perfect competition implies that the wage
rate of the sector is unity, wa = 1. Market clearing for domestic variety k
is given by
~ ~
Fk = ( N + H )xk + N + H τ~ (
xk , ) (4.4.2)
In the long run, human capital owners are internationally mobile and
will move to the region where their indirect utility is higher. Hence, in long
~
run equilibrium we should have V − V = 0 . From the definitions of Y
~ ~
and R , we have Y − Y = R − R . From Eqs. (4.4.1), we have
~ ~p ~
Ω ≡ V − V = α ln + R − R .
p
It can be shown that from the previous equations, the difference between
Home and Foreign’s indirect utility is given as follows
α λφ + 1 − λ
Ω(λ ) = ln +
1 − σ λ + (1 − λ )φ
α ρ+λ ρ~ + 1 − λ
− ,
(1 − σ ) λ + (1 − λ )φ λφ + 1 − λ
(4.4.4)
where
H N
λ≡ ~, ρ ≡ ~ , φ ≡τ
1−σ
≤ 1.
H +H H +H
By Ω(λ ) = 0 , we determine the human capital distribution. From
pCi = α and the production functions, we determine p . Using the other
equations in the model, we can determine all the other variables. It is
~
straightforward to find one solution. When λ = 1 / 2 , we have V − V = 0 .
For identical countries, the even distribution of human capital is always an
equilibrium solution. Nevertheless, this solution may be unstable as the
model contains two agglomerative forces: a supply linkage and a demand
linkage. The supply linkage is that the region with the higher share of hu-
man capital has a larger manufacturing sector and therefore a lower price
index, as reflected in the first term in Eq. (4.4.4). The demand linkage is
that a higher share of human capital implies a larger market in the country,
as in the second term in Eq. (4.4.4). Transport costs act as a stabilizing
force in the model in the sense that a higher transport costs tend to disperse
production.14 In this model, when transport costs are nil, the difference
does not matter in the model and human capital owners are indifferent
14 When transport costs become higher, it tends to profit these firms which are
This chapter examined economic forces for determining trade patterns with
factor movements. We are mainly concerned with labor and capital mobil-
ity. An important question not examined is whether labor and capital flows
are complements or substitutes. Standard models predict that migration
and foreign direct investment are substitutes. The main economic mecha-
nism for substitutability in the standard static models is that as migration
reduces the number of workers in the economy which tends to decrease the
domestic return to capital and thus generate a compensating outflow of
capital, migration leads to less FDI. Another explanation is that as a skilled
labor force is an important determinant of FDI inflows, a more skilled
emigration will lower the proportion of skilled in the home population and
tends to reduce FDI.15 But recent literature on the role of diasporas in fa-
voring trade with, and capital flows to, the migrants’ origin countries
shows that they are complements.16 As there are forces for substitutability
and complementarity, it is expected that there should be “to be or not to
be” in empirical studies. Using US data, Kugler and Rapoport (2007) dem-
onstrate contemporaneous substitutability and dynamic complementarity
between migration and FDI. To analyze the issue, we need a genuine dy-
namic framework with factor and goods flows, capital and human capital
accumulation.
This chapter introduces money and exchange rates into trade models.
Section 5.1 first defines the current account balance for closed economies
and for open economies. Open economies can trade in goods and services,
borrow resources from the rest of world, and lend them abroad. Section 5.2
is concerned with the IS-LM model for an open economy. The model is
also a standard tool for analyzing balance-of-payments (BOP) behavior
when exchange rate is fixed. Section 5.3 introduces a classical model of
monetary open economy with the gold standard. This model and its vari-
ous extensions provide insights into many important monetary issues. The
model deals with the interactions among money, spending and prices in the
open economy with full price flexibility. Section 5.4 introduces a simple
monetary model of international trade developed by Ohyama. The model
studies an interaction of monetary and real factors affecting the terms of
trade and governing the adjustment process of current account imbalances
under the system of flexible rates. Section 5.5 concludes the chapter.
136 5 Money, Exchange Rate, and Trade
1 The concepts and relations in this section can be found in standard macroeco-
nomic textbooks. This section is based on Abel and Bernanke (1998).
2 If a firm produces some product which it cannot sell during the period, the un-
sold goods are treated as though they were purchased by the firm itself. Thus ex-
penditure and production remain equal even if some goods are unsold.
3 From its definition, we see that nonmarket goods services, such as many gov-
ernment services, and homemaking and child-caring services performed within the
family without pay, are important but are not included in GDP.
5.1 Measurement and Accounting Relations of Economies 137
duced good or service, domestic or foreign7), and net exports of goods and
services, NX , (which are exports minus imports), that is
Y = C + I + G + NX , (5.1.3)
where Y stands for GDP. Equation (5.1.3) is called the income-
expenditure identity.
The income approach to measure GDP is to sum up the incomes re-
ceived by producers and taxes paid to the government. To obtain GDP we
add national income, indirect business taxes, depreciation, and net factor
payments. National income is the sum of compensation of employees
(which is the income of workers and employers’ contributions to Social
Security), proprietors’ income (which is the income of the nonincorporated
self-employed), rental income of persons (which is the income earned by
individuals who own land or structure that they rent to others), corporate
profits (which are the profits earned by corporations), and net interest
(which is interest earned by individuals from businesses and foreign
sources minus interest paid by individuals).
The total income can also be divided into the incomes received by the
private sector and by the government sector. The income of the private
sector, called private disposable income, is the income the private sector
has available to spend. Private disposable income equals private sector in-
come earned at home and abroad, plus payments to the private sector from
the government sector. It is given by
private disposable income = Y + NFP + TR + INT − T , (5.1.4)
where TR is transfers received from the government, INT is the interest
payments on the government’s debt, and T is taxes. The part of GDP that
is not included in the private disposable income is net government income,
which is given by
net government income = T − TR − INT . (5.1.5)
From Eqs. (5.1.4) and (5.1.5), we have
GNP = private disposable income + net government = Y + NFP . (5.1.6)
National economy depends on not only on income but also on wealth. In
order to know a household’s economic condition, we need to know not
only its current income, but also what the household owns (its assets) and
ment payments for Social Security and Medicare benefits, unemployment insur-
ance, welfare payments and so on) and interest payments on the national debt.
5.1 Measurement and Accounting Relations of Economies 139
owes (its liabilities). The difference between assets and liabilities is called
wealth. The wealth of a nation is called national wealth. An important de-
terminant of wealth is saving. Here, the saving is the current income minus
its spending. National saving consists of private saving and government
saving. The private saving is given by
private saving = private disposable income - consumption = (5.1.7)
Y + NFP − T + TR + INT − C ,
where we use Eq. (5.1.4). The government saving is defined as
government saving = net government income -
(5.1.8)
government purchases = T − TR − INT − G ,
where we use Eq. (5.1.5). Let S stand for national saving. Then, we have
S = S p + S g = Y + NFP − C − G , (5.1.9)
Sp = I + (− S g ) + CA. (5.1.11)
This section is mainly concerned with the IS-LM model for an open econ-
omy. The IS-LM model was developed Hicks (1937).8 The model is often
identified with the Keynesian approach to macroeconomics. Since Hicks,
many economists have worked to refine the IS-LM model.9 In the standard
IS-LM, wages and prices are fixed, at least, in the short term. To classical
economists who hold that wages and prices move rapidly to clear markets,
the assumption of a fixed price is not acceptable. Nevertheless, as the
original IS-LM can also be modified to allow rapid adjustment of prices
and wage, the analytical framework is now used to analyze classical eco-
nomic problems as well.
ideas of Keynes’ The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money. This
book is only concerned with open economies. There are many studies on this
model. We refer the IS-LM analysis for the closed economies to some standard
textbooks by, for instance, Dornbusch and Fischer (1994), and Abel and Bernanke
(1998).
9 The IS-LM versions are based on Abel and Bernanke (1998: Chap. 10) and
Consider that firms view the wage of the workers they hire as being de-
termined in a competitive labor market. Firms’ goal is to maximize profit,
which equals, F − wN , where w is the real wage. Maximizing the profit
yields
w = A(θ − θ1 N ). (5.2.2)
This relation describes how many workers the firms will employ at the
current wage rate. This is the demand function for labor. The amount of
labor demand is determined by equalizing the real wage rate and the mar-
ginal product of labor. Labor demand rises in the productivity and falls the
real wage rate. If we consider that A is positively related to the capital
stocks used by the firms, we see that an increase in the capital stocks also
increase the demand for labor.
We have described how the labor demand is determined by the firms.
We now examine the supply of labor by the households. Assume that the
supply of labor is positively related to the real wage rate.10 We specify the
labor supply function as follows
N = n0 + nw (1 − τ w )w , (5.2.3)
w* =
(θ − θ1n0 )A
,
(5.2.5)
1 + nwθ1 A(1 − τ w )
w*
N* N
Fig. 5.2.1. Labor market equilibrium
A↑
w*
N* N
Fig. 5.2.2. Effects of an improvement in the productivity
upon the labor market equilibrium by shifting either the demand curve or supply
curve.
144 5 Money, Exchange Rate, and Trade
where Y , T and r are respectively income, taxes, and the real interest
rate, Y − T is disposable income, and ξ 0 , ξY and ξ r are positive parame-
5.2 The IS-LM Analysis for an Open Economy 145
where τ 0 is a lump-sum tax and τ w is the tax rate on income (which is the
same as levied on wages).
We now examine investment by firms. It is considered that net invest-
ment will proceed more rapidly the higher is the marginal product of capi-
tal in relation to the cost of borrowing r . For simplicity we assume that
desired investment is given as
I = i0 − ir r , (5.2.10)
where i0 and ir are positive numbers. This equation means that desired in-
vestment falls when the real interest rises.
It is assumed that net exports, NX , are determined as follows
~
NX = η − ηY Y + η~Y Y − η r r + η~r ~
r,
~
where η , ηY , η~Y , η r , and η~r are non-negative numbers, and Y and ~ r are
foreign income and foreign rate of interest. It should be noted that if the
parameters, η , ηY , η~Y , η r , and η~r , are all zero, then the model is for a
closed economy. The equation says that the net exports are positively re-
lated to the foreign income and real rate of interest and negatively to the
domestic income and real rate of interest. As higher domestic output raises
demand for imports, net exports tends to fall. As foreign output is in-
creased, foreign demand for exports tends to rise. Hence, exports tends to
rise. We can similarly interpret the signs of the other parameters.
If we substitute the related equations into Eq. (5.2.7), we have
Y = ξ 0 + ξ Y (Y − τ 0 − τ wY ) − ξ r r + i0 − ir r + G + η − ηY Y
~
+ η~ Y − η r + η~ ~
Y r rr.
in which
146 5 Money, Exchange Rate, and Trade
~
ξ 0 + i0 + G − ξ Yτ 0 + η + η~Y Y + η~r ~
r
α IS ≡ > 0,
ξ r + ir + η r
1 − (1 − τ )ξ Y + ηY
β IS ≡ > 0.
ξ r + ir + η r
Equation (5.2.11) relates output to the real interest rate that clears the
goods market. This relationship between Y and r defines the IS curve.
The IS curve slopes downward.
We can also illustrate how we obtain the IS curve as in Fig. 5.2.1. The
goods market equilibrium condition is also given by S − I = NX , where
S − I = (1 − ξ Y + ξ Yτ w )Y + (ξ r + ir )r + G0 ,
~
NX = η − η Y + η~ Y − η r + η~ ~
Y Y r rr,
r r
NX 1 S1 − I1
NX 2 S2 − I 2
A A
Y rises B
B
S − I , NX Y1 Y2 Y
(a) goods market equilibrium (b) the IS curve
Fig. 5.2.3. The IS curve
r r
S2 − I 2
S1 − I1
G rises
B B
A A
S − I , NX Y1 Y
(a) goods market equilibrium (b) the IS curve
Fig. 5.2.4. The is curve shifts as the government raises its expenditures
148 5 Money, Exchange Rate, and Trade
We have discussed the labor and goods markets. We now examine the as-
set market. By asset market we mean the market in which people buy and
sell real and financial assets, including, for instance, gold, houses, stocks
and bonds. In macroeconomics money is the focus of the study of the asset
market. Households’ decisions about how much money to hold is part of
broader decisions about how to allocate wealth among the various assets.
The “LM” relationship describes relations between the behavior of money
demand and supply in the economy. This relation is established by consid-
ering the nature of money demand.13 Households decide how much of their
wealth will be held in the form of money, rather than in the form of other
assets such as bonds, stocks, houses, cars, and so on. In their choice,
households balance the expected transactional benefits of holding money
and the cost of doing so. The cost of holding money is the opportunity cost
of extra interest that is lost by no holding bonds or other interest-earning
assets. As the purpose of holding money is to facilitate planned transac-
tions, more money will be held that greater is the volume of transaction
planned. On the other hand, as households are concerned with real quanti-
ties of goods and services, rather than their nominal values, the quantity of
money demanded will be in real terms. We assume that all money has the
same risk and liquidity and is paid with the same nominal interest rate
(which is always assumed to be zero). It is assumed that the real demand
for money depends on real income, Y , and the nominal interest rate, i , on
nonmonetary assets,14 which in turn equals the expected real interest rate,
r , plus the expected rate of inflation, π e . We specify the money demand
function in the following form
(5.2.12)
= λ0 + λY Y − λr (r + π e ),
M
P
where M is the nominal demand for money15 and P is the price level, and
λ0 , λY and λr are positive parameters. In Eq. (5.2.12), the nominal money
demand is proportional to the price level. If the price doubles (with the fac-
13 The concept of money used here, like in McCallum (1996), is that of a tangi-
ble asset that serves as a generally accepted medium of exchange. Here, the rate of
interest paid on money is zero.
14 Nonmonetary assets such as stocks, bonds, land and so on, are assumed to
have the same risk and liquidity and to be paid the same nominal interest rate.
15 Here, we should use (a superscript) index to distinguish the variable for de-
mand from that for supply. For simplicity, we omit indexing the differences.
5.2 The IS-LM Analysis for an Open Economy 149
tors unchanged), nominal money demand will double, so that the same real
transactions is conducted. The money-demand relationship is actually de-
termined by various institutional and technological aspects of the econ-
omy. An equivalent way of the above equation expresses
M
= λ0 + λY Y − λr i .
P
For given levels of M , P and π e , Eq. (5.2.12) relates output to the real
interest rate that clears the asset market. For fixed P , money demand de-
pends on real income and the nominal interest rate on nonmonetary assets.
An increase in real income raises the demand for liquidity and thus in-
creases money demand. A decrease in the nominal interest rate makes
nonmonetary assets less attractive, which increases money demand. It
should be noted that the specified linear demand function neglects many
other factors, such as possible positive interest rates on money, wealth,
risks, liquidity of alternative assets, and payment technologies, which may
affect demand for money.
The asset market is in equilibrium when the quantity of each asset de-
manded equals the available supply of that asset. In this model, we have
money and nonmonetary assets. As there are only two types of assets, we
have that asset market is in equilibrium when the quantity of money sup-
plied equals the quantity of money demanded. To explain this, we notice
that the sum of demand for money and nonmonetary assets is equal to the
nominal wealth of the economy, that is
money demand + nonmonetary assets demand = nominal wealth.
On the other hand, the sum of the supplies of money and nonmonetary
assets is equal to nominal wealth, we should have
money supply + nonmonetary assets supply = nominal wealth.
From the above two relations, we have
money demand + nonmonetary assets demand =
money supply + nonmonetary assets supply.
Equivalently, we have
excess demand for money +
excess demand for nonmonetary assets supply = 0 ,
where
excess demand for money = money demand − money supply,
150 5 Money, Exchange Rate, and Trade
Fig. 5.2.5a. For a fixed level of output, say Y1 , the demand curve for real
money is given in Fig. 2.2.5a. The intersection of the demand and supply
curves is at point A . At point A the asset market is in equilibrium for the
fixed level of output Y1 . If we increase the output level from Y1 to Y2 then
the demand curve for real money moves upwards as from Eq. (5.2.3). The
new equilibrium point is point B . Hence, Fig. 5.2.5 shows relations be-
tween M / P and r for different levels of Y . If plot the relation between
r and Y as in Fig. 5.2.5b which is actually given by Eq. (5.2.13), we ob-
tain the LM curve which shows the real interest rate that clears the asset
market for each level of the output.
r r
B
B
A A
Y1
M /P Y1 Y2 Y
(a) money demand and money supply (b) the LM curve
Fig. 5.2.5. The LM curve
r r
real money supply ↑
A A
B B
real money
demand
M /P Y1 Y
(a) money demand and supply (b) the LM curve
Fig. 5.2.6. The LM curve shifts as real money supply rises
curves. For a given level of price, the output level is determined from Eqs.
(5.2.11) and (5.2.13) as
α IS − α LM + M / λr P (5.2.14)
Y = .
β IS + β LM
This relation is the aggregate demand (AD) curve. For constant M , Y
is negatively related to P .
Short-run equilibrium
In the short run, the price level is fixed. The short-run aggregate supply
(SRAS) curve is a horizontal line given by P = P . 16 The short-run equilib-
rium of the economy is represented by the intersection of the AD curve
and the SRAS curve. From Eq. (5.2.14), we have
α IS − α LM + M / λr P
Y = .
β IS + β LM
Long-run equilibrium
In the long run, the long-run aggregate supply (LRAS) curve is deter-
mined at the full-employment level of output, Y = Y * . The long-run equi-
librium of the economy is represented by the intersection of the AD curve
and the LSAS curve. From Eq. (5.2.14), we have
M
P= .
[
(β IS + β LM )Y − α IS + α LM λr
*
]
We need a few concepts about exchange rates. In this book, the nominal
exchange rate between two currencies, enom , is the number of units of do-
mestic currency that can be purchased with one unit of the foreign cur-
rency. For instance, in the foreign exchange market 120 Japanese yen can
purchase 1 U.S. dollar. For residents of Japan the domestic currency is the
Japanese yen, the nominal exchange rate is enom = 120 . In a flexible-
exchange-rate-system or a floating-exchange-rate-system, nominal ex-
change rates are not officially fixed but are determined by conditions of
supply and demand in the foreign exchange market. In a fixed-exchange-
rate system, nominal exchange rates are officially set at officially deter-
mined levels. Usually, these official rates were maintained by the com-
mitment of nations’ central banks to buy and sell their currencies at the
fixed rate.17
The nominal exchange rate does not tell about the purchasing power of a
currency. For instance, even we know the exchange rate between the Japa-
nese yen and the U.S. dollar is 120 , this does not mean that one who buys
a hamburger with 2 dollars in New York can buy a hamburger with 240
yen at Tokyo. In reality, for instance, one hamburger costs 480 in Tokyo.
That is, the price of a hamburger in Tokyo is 4 dollars. The price of a U.S.
hamburger relative to a Japanese hamburger is therefore equal to 0.5. The
Japanese hamburger is more expensive than the U.S. one. To measure the
purchasing power of currencies, we introduce the real exchange rate,
which is the number of domestic goods someone gets in exchange for one
foreign goods. In the hamburger example the real exchange rate between
Japan and the United States is 0.5 . 18
In general, prices, nominal exchange rate, and real exchange, are interre-
lated. Let us consider that the world consists of two economies, domestic
and foreign. Let a variable with tilde stand for foreign country. Let P and
~
P stand for respectively the prices measured in their own currencies in the
~
two economies. According to the definitions of e, enom , P and P , we
have the following relations19
~ (5.2.15)
e P
e = nom .
P
For the hamburger example, we have
17 For example, under the international gold standard system in the late 1800s,
the central banks of the countries involved maintained the value of its currency in
terms of gold by agreeing to buy or sell gold in exchange for currency at fixed
rates of exchanges. Another example is the Bretton Woods system under which
the values of various currencies were fixed in terms of the U.S. dollar, and the
value of the dollar was set $35 per ounce of gold.
18 It can be seen that if the two countries produce an identical product that can
among economies (without any transaction costs), then the real exchange would
~
equal 1. Hence, we have P = enom P .
5.2 The IS-LM Analysis for an Open Economy 155
∆e ∆enom ~ (5.2.16)
= +π −π.
e enom
Equation (5.2.16) states that the rate of real exchange rate depreciation
is equation to the rate of nominal exchange rate depreciation plus the ex-
cess of foreign inflation over domestic inflation. To see how to strengthen
the domestic currency, we may rewrite (5.2.16) as
∆enom ∆e
= + π − π~ .
enom e
To appreciate the domestic currency, we may encourage a real apprecia-
tion and/or lower the domestic inflation.
Another important concept is called purchasing power parity (PPP),
which means that similar foreign and domestic goods, or baskets of goods,
should have the same price in terms of the same currency. It is observed
that the PPP tends to hold in the long term; but over short periods PPP
does not describe exchange rate behavior well. As the real exchange rate is
1, from (5.2.15) we should have
P (5.2.17)
enom = ~ .
P
Corresponding to (5.2.16), we have
∆enom (5.2.18)
= π − π~ .
enom
The real exchange rate and net exports
We now relate trade in goods with the real exchange rate. If all the other
conditions remain the same, when the real exchange rate falls, the house-
holds in the domestic country are able to obtain more foreign goods and
services in exchange for a given amount of domestic production. In na-
tional level, the real exchange rate affects the country’s net exports.20 If the
real exchange rate is low so that a unit of foreign goods can buy little do-
mestic goods (in other words, a unit of domestic goods can buy relatively
many units of the foreign good), domestic residents will like to buy many
foreign goods and foreign residents will want to purchase relatively less
domestic goods. Hence, we may say that if all the other factors which may
affect an economy’s export and import are kept constant, then the lower
the real exchange rate is, the lower a country’s net exports will be.
∂CA ∂Ex ∂R
= −R−e .
∂e ∂e ∂e
This equation involves the two current account effects of a real depre-
ciation, the volume effect (i.e., ∂Ex / ∂e − e∂R / ∂e > 0 ), and the value ef-
fect (i.e., − R < 0 ). The value effect says that a rise in e worsens the cur-
rent account to the extent that it raises the domestic output value of the
initial volume of imports. For ∂CA / ∂e > 0 , it is sufficient to have
1 ∂Ex e ∂R
− > 1.
R ∂e R ∂e
In particular, assume that before the real exchange rate is changed,
CA = 0 , that is, Ex = eR . Under this condition, the above inequality be-
comes
e ∂Ex e ∂R
− > 1,
Ex ∂e R ∂e
or equivalently
η + η * > 1,
where η and η * are respectively called the elasticity of export demand
with respect to e and the elasticity of import demand with respect to e ,
defined by
e ∂Ex * e ∂R
η≡ ,η ≡ − > 1.
Ex ∂e R ∂e
The condition, η + η * > 1, is called the Marshall-Lerner condition.22
This condition states that if the current account is initially zero, a real cur-
rency depreciation causes a current account surplus if the sum of the elas-
ticity of export demand and the elasticity of import demand is greater than
unit.23
We now use the IS-LM model to study the effects of monetary policy. We
examine respectively long-run and short-run effects. According to the
Keynesian approach, in the short run the price is fixed. In the long run
price is flexible.24
Short-run analysis
In the short run price is fixed. From Eqs. (5.2.11) and (5.2.13), we get
dY 1 dr dY
= > 0, = − β IS < 0.
dM (β IS + β LM )λr P dM dM
As money supply is increased, the output level falls and the real interest
rate falls. From Eqs. (5.2.8)-(5.2.10), we obtain
dC dY dr
= ξY (1 − τ w ) − ξr > 0,
dM dM dM
dI dr
= − ir > 0,
dM dM
dNX dY
= − ηY < 0.
dM dM
As money supply is increased, the consumption and the investment are
increased and the amount of net exports falls. From Eqs. (5.2.1) and
(5.2.3), we have
dN 1 dY dw 1 dN
= > 0, = > 0.
dM (θ − θ1 N )A dM dM (1 − τ w )nw dM
The labor force and wage rate are increased.
Long-run analysis
In the long run price is flexible and labor is fully employed. From Eqs.
(5.2.4)-(5.2.6), we see that change in M has not effect on Y , N and w .
From Eqs. (5.2.11) and (5.2.13), we have
dP P
= > 0.
dM M
24 It should be noted that in the classical approach price is flexible even in the
short run. In the long run the effects should be the same in the Keynesian approach
and the classical approach.
160 5 Money, Exchange Rate, and Trade
FE
LM2
B LM1
r*
A
IS
Y* Y
Fig. 5.2.7. Effects of an increase in money supply
the domestic price level. As the foreign variables remain constant, these
changes cause the real exchange rate and the nominal exchange rate to fall.
In the long run money is neutral, so that Y and r return to their original
levels. Hence, in the long run, according to Eq. (5.2.19) the real exchange
rate is not affected. As a monetary expansion leads to a long-run increase
in the domestic price level, the nominal exchange rate depreciates.
where C and C are national nominal spending levels in the domestic and
foreign countries and V and V are the constant expenditure velocities.
Let the two economies supply fixed amount of output, Y and Y . Let P
stand for the globally equal price of the good. The balance of world in-
come and spending is given by
(Y + Y )P = VM + V M .
In the reminder of this section, we require V = V . The model is closed by
the following equation for the balance of payments and money supply
The equation says that the balance of payments surplus is equal to the
trade surplus, which is equal to the excess of demand over supply. Substi-
tuting P = VG / (Y + Y ) into Eq. (5.3.3) yields
M& = ( y G − M )V , (5.3.4)
27 We neglect factors such as transaction costs which may make exchange rates
to vary. We refer studies of the economies with national currencies and gold standard
to Barro (1979) and McCallum (1989: Chap. 13).
164 5 Money, Exchange Rate, and Trade
ess of current account imbalances under the system of flexible rates.28 The
world consists of two countries, Home and Foreign, which produce two
goods, goods 1 and 2 . Markets are perfectly competitive in any economy.
The factor endowment and production technology of each country are
fixed. The factors of production are fully employed. Free trade prevails
between two countries with no transportation costs. Assume that Home
exports good 1 and Foreign exports good 2 . Moneys are held as financial
assets by households of the two countries. Households can exchange mon-
eys freely and the exchange rate is determined so as to equilibrate the for-
eign exchange market.
28 See also Kouri (1976), Calvo and Rodriguez (1977), and Dornbusch and
Fischer (1980).
29 Here, we neglect any possible effects of national income or any other vari-
~ ~
α (π )W + α~(π )eW = M + Th + Th ,
(1 − α )W + (1 − α~ )eW~ = e(M~ ~
+ Tf + Tf ,) (5.4.4)
where M are Home’s and Foreign’s initial supply of money and we use
W ~ ~
D f = (1 − α ) , D f = (1 − α~ )W ,
e
which are obtained from Eqs. (5.4.2) and (5.4.3). The value of the world
total wealth is equal to the value of the world total supply of money
~ ~ ~
(
W + eW = M + Th + Th + e M + T f + T f ,
~
) (5.4.5)
This equation determines the exchange rate when the other variables in
the equation are given. We interpret this condition as that the exchange
rate is determined to equilibrate the total demand for the foreign money
with the total supply of the foreign money.
We now describe the commodity markets. Let p j stand for prices of
good j in the domestic currency. The international price arbitrage entails
p j = ep j , j = 1, 2 .
30 This means that the excess demand functions are homogeneous of degree
zero in each country’s money prices and nominal wealth. This assumption is based
on that the factors of production are fully employed in each country and that price
expectations are static and the public is free from money illusion in each country.
166 5 Money, Exchange Rate, and Trade
~ (5.4.7)
W ~ W
E j p , ~ + E j p , ~ = 0 , j = 1, 2 .
ep1 pp1
Each country’s wealth varies over time at the rate of its current account
surplus
W& ~& (5.4.9)
= − W = B.
e
The condition of the current account equilibrium is
~ (5.4.10)
~ W W
E1 p , ~ − pE2 p , ~ = 0 .
pp1 pp1
Given M , e , p and ~
p1 with Th = T f = 0 , Eq. (5.4.10) with Eqs.
(5.4.5) determine Home’s and Foreign’s wealth. The world economy’s
long-run equilibrium is defined as the state where Eqs. (5.4.10), (5.4.6) and
(5.4.7) for given M and π = 0 . We have thus built the model. We ana-
lyze some properties of the model.
By (5.4.11), we have
[ ~
∂ α (π )W + α~ (π )eW] W ~
= α (1 − α ) + α~(1 − α~ )W > 0 .
∂e e
~
That is, the total demand for Home money, αW + α~eW , rises in e . As
the money supply is fixed, we see that the equilibrium exchange rate is de-
termined at point E as in Fig. 5.4.1.
e
M
~
αW + α~eW
e E
M M
Fig. 5.4.1. Determination of exchange rate
~
and a fall in W . If Home’s propensity to hold Home currency, α , is
greater (less) than Foreign’s propensity to hold Home currency, α~ , then
the demand curve shifts to the right (left), resulting in the appreciation (de-
preciation) of Home currency. From Eqs. (5.4.2) and (5.4.11), we have
∂e
=−
(α − α~ )e , (5.4.12)
~ ~
∂Z αD +αD f f
~
where Z stands for the sum of the transfer and we use dZ = dT f = − dT f .
Lemma 5.4.1
An increase in the monetary transfer from Foreign to Home results in an
appreciation (depreciation) of Home currency if and only if α > (<) α~ .
If α~ = 0 , that is, foreigners do not hold Home currency, then the trans-
fer causes Home currency to appreciate. From Eqs. (5.4.1) and (5.4.12),
we have
~ ~
∂W
=
α~eM
> 0 ,
∂W
=−
(1 − α )M / e < 0 .
~ ~ ~
∂Z αD f + α D f ∂Z αD f + α~D f
The directions of effects on the wealth are definite.
Another important question for this (kind of) trade model is price dy-
namics and its stability. Let us consider a case that the commodity markets
are out of equilibrium,31 even though the foreign exchange market is
cleared at all time. As the equilibrium prices are given by Eqs. (5.4.7), we
introduce price dynamics when the equations are not held as follows
~
( ~
) ( ~
)
p& 1 = F E1 + E1 , p& = F E2 + E2 , F (0) = 0 , F ' (0) > 0 .
~ (5.4.13)
The specified dynamics simply mean that the money price of each good
rises (falls) when the total demand for that good exceeds (falls short of) its
total supply.
Before stating stability conditions, we introduce an assumption and a
few notations. For simplicity, assume that the current account is balanced,
that is
~ ~
p1 E1 = ~
p 2 E2 > 0 .
Let η j stand for the elasticity of a country’s excess demand for good j
with respect to the relative price, that is
~
p ∂E j ~ p ∂E j
ηj ≡ − , ηj ≡ ~ .
E j ∂p E j ∂p
and the trace is negative if ε~j > 0 (which are assumed to hold) and
~W ~ (5.4.15)
m
ε2 + ~ 2
> 0.
p2 E2
The equilibrium point is locally stable if (5.4.14) and (5.4.15) hold near
the point. To rewrite these two conditions, define
~
~ E ~
E ≡ E1 + pE2 , E ≡ 1 + E2 .
p
170 5 Money, Exchange Rate, and Trade
~W~ (5.4.17)
m
η~1 + η 2 − 1 + ~ 2 > 0 .
p 2 E2
We conclude that the Marshall-Lerner condition
η ≡ η~ + η − 1 > 0
0 1 2
First, we are still concerned with the effect of a monetary transfer from
Foreign to Home on the commodity markets with e being fixed. It can be
~
shown that with e fixed, from Eq. (5.4.7) and ~p1 E1 = ~
p2 E2 we obtain
~
1 ∂~p1 W e
~ = (m − m )η 0 + (m1m2 − m2 m1 ) ~
~ ~ ~
,
p1 ∂Z p2 E2 η m
32 This section is limited to the situations when the two conditions hold. It
should be noted that Ohyama (1991) also examines the system when the condi-
tions are not held as an appendix.
5.4 Exchange Rates and the Terms of Trade in a Two-Country Model 171
~ (5.4.18)
1 ∂p W + eW
=− ~ (m1m~ 2 − m2 m~1 ),
p ∂Z p2 E2η m
national monetary transfer has no impact on the price of any good. In gen-
eral, we see that prices may be either increased or decreased, depending on
combinations of the parameter values.33
It is often taken for granted that a depreciation of Home currency gener-
ates pressure in Home and a deflationary pressure in Foreign and that
Home’s terms of trade is deteriorated. We now use this simple model to
address this issue. Rather than fixing e , we now allow e to vary. Still
from Eq. (5.4.7), we obtain
e ∂~ ~~
p1
= − α + (α − ~ ) eη 0 mW ,
α
~
p1 ∂e ηm
~ (5.4.19)
e ∂p WW
=− ~ (α − α~ )(m1m~ 2 − m2 m~1 ).
p ∂e p2 E2η m
Lemma 5.4.2
A depreciation of Home currency brings about a deterioration in Home’s
terms of trade iff
(α − α~ )(m m~ − m m~ ) > 0 .
1 2 2 1
33 It should be noted that it is often believed that the terms of trade will deterio-
rate for the country which pays the transfer. This is notably argued by Keynes
(1929). The orthodox assumption in this model holds under m1m ~ >mm ~
2 2 1.
172 5 Money, Exchange Rate, and Trade
~
W W
B=− ~
p1 E1 p , + pE
p , .
p1
p~ p1
p~
2
Under (5.4.16), taking total differentials of the above equation yields
W d~
p1 de (5.4.20)
dB = − m dZ − − 2 .
p1 e
∂B
=−
mm 0 (
~ η W + eW ~
.
) (5.4.21)
∂Z de = 0 ηm
Lemma 5.4.3
Under (5.4.16), a depreciation of Home currency improves Home’s bal-
ance of current account iff
(α − α~ )η > 0 .
0
34 Robinson (1937) and Metzler (1948) hold that the Marshall-Lerner condition
is necessary for a devaluation to improve the current account balance of the de-
valuing country. It should be also noted that Johnson (1976: 281) considers the
Marshall-Lerner condition to “be completely irrelevant to a monetary international
economy because it is the condition for the stability of the exchange in a barter
economy.”
5.4 Exchange Rates and the Terms of Trade in a Two-Country Model 173
The main problem for the models in this chapter is that they lack (optimal)
mechanisms for determining household behavior. Although they can be
applied to analyze issues related to money and exchange rates, they do not
explain how the unemployed, for instance, make decisions in consumption
and saving. Although the Ohyama model provides an exploration of short-
run dynamics of exchange rates and current account balances, as it is con-
structed with fixed trade pattern and fixed wealth, essential long-term
problems of international trade can not be properly addressed. As
McCallum (1996: 97-98) pointed out,35 “neither short-run nor long-run
analysis of the comparative static type is fully satisfactory, of course. What
would be preferred is true dynamic analysis that traces out the path of all
variables as they evolve over time.”
35 It should be remarked that the IS-LM analysis for open economies has been
1 See Nahuis (2003: Chap. 2), which surveys some empirical studies on possi-
ble causes for the decrease in the relative wage of low-skilled workers in the US in
the 1980s. For trade and wage inequalities for developing economies, see also
Marjit and Acharyya (2003) and Edmonds and Pavcnik (2006).
2 Other channels of enlarged inequalities are modeled by, for instance, Krug-
result is obtained under static conditions. Factor mobility may not be sub-
stitutive with trade in goods once we perceive economic evolution in a dy-
namic and accumulative way. This becomes evident when we introduce
changeable returns to scale in economic dynamics. It can be seen that in
general, factor mobility and trade in goods cannot be treated in symmetry.
The Mundell substitutability between trade in goods and factor mobility is
generally not valid. This chapter will suggest a dynamic one-commodity
and multiple-country trade model to examine interdependence between
trades and global growth. We analyze trade issues within the framework of
a simple international macroeconomic growth model with perfect capital
mobility.
This chapter studies a few models of small open economies with inter-
national capital mobility. As mentioned before, the main deviation of this
book from traditional approaches in modeling dynamics of international
trade is how to model households’ decision making. Section 6.1 introduces
the one-sector growth (OSG) model of an isolated economy. In the rest of
this book, we use the OSG framework to stand for the one sector growth
model developed in this section and its various extensions. Section 6.2 ex-
amines the Ramsey growth model (which is the most popular approach in
economic growth theory with optimal foundation) also for a closed econ-
omy. As the OSG approach is an alternative approach to the Ramsey ap-
proach, we will also compare the two approaches. Section 6.3 describes
dynamics of a small country economy. An open economy can import
goods and services and borrow resources from the rest of the world or ex-
ports goods and services and lend resources abroad. For convenience of il-
lustration, assume that there is a single good in the world economy and the
price of the goods is unity. Section 6.4 extends the model in Sect. 6.3 to a
multi-regional economy. The model examines economic growth of a
multi-regional small open economy in a perfectly competitive economy.
The national economy consists of multiple regions and each region has one
production sector and one housing sector. Households move freely among
regions, equalizing utility level among regions by choosing housing, goods
and saving. A region’s amenity is endogenous, depending on the region’s
output and population. We explicitly solve the dynamics of the multi-
regional economy. As a concluding remark, Sect. 6.5 discusses the theo-
retical basis for the utility function used in Chap. 6. Section A.6.1 intro-
duces a typical model of a small overlapping-generalizations (OLG) econ-
omy, proposed by Galor. Section A.6.2 studies a small country model
proposed by Ikeda and Gombi to study the equilibrium dynamics of sav-
ings, investment and the current account. Section A.6.3 proves Lemma
6.4.1. Section A.6.4 studies the Keynesian consumption function and ex-
amines its possible relations to the consumption function obtained from the
178 6 Growth of Small Open-Economies with Capital Accumulation
OSG approach. Section A.6.5 introduces the Solow growth model and ex-
amines its possible relations to the OSG growth model.
traditional approach (e.g., Burmeister and Dobell, 1970, and Azariadis, 1993).
6.1 The One-Sector Growth (OSG) Model of a Closed Economy 179
nor the factor productions of its previous use. We use the conventional
production function to describe a relationship between inputs and output.
The function F (t ) defines the flow of production at time t . The produc-
tion process is described by neoclassical production function6:
F (t ) = F (K (t ), N (t ) ). In the rest of this book, we omit time subscripts and
in the subsequent analysis whenever no ambiguity results.
We assume that the production function exhibits constant returns to
scale.7 It is straightforward to check that a linear homogenous production
has the following properties:
(i) The production function can be written in terms of per capita output as
a function of per capita capital
F K (6.1.1)
= F (k , 1) ≡ f (k ), k ≡ .
N N
Output per worker depends only on the amount of capital employed by one
worker. Equation (6.1.1) is called the intensive form of the aggregate pro-
duction function. It is also referred to as the per-worker production func-
tion.
∂F ∂ (NF / NK ) ∂ ( f (k ) / k )
FN = = = = f (k ) − k f ' (k ) > 0 .
∂N ∂(N / K ) ∂ (1 / k )
(iv) The Euler Theorem holds
KFK + NFN = F .
the temporary income because consumers can sell wealth to pay, for in-
stance, the current consumption if the temporary income is not sufficient
for buying food and touring the country. Retired people may live not only
on the interest payment but also have to spend some of their wealth. The
total value of wealth that consumers can sell to purchase goods and to save
is equal to p(t )K (t ) (with p(t ) = 1 ). Here, we assume that selling and
buying wealth can be conducted instantaneously without any transaction
cost. The disposable income is equal to
Yˆ (t ) = Y (t ) + K (t ). (6.1.5)
In our model, at each point of time, consumers have two variables to de-
cide. A consumer decides how much to consume and to save. Equation
(6.1.6) means that consumption and savings exhaust the consumers’ dis-
posable personal income. The slope of the budget line is equal to − 1, i.e.,
dS / dC = − 1.
We assume that utility level, U (t ), that the consumers obtain is depend-
ent on the consumption level of commodity, C (t ), and the saving, S (t )
U (t ) = U (C (t ), S (t )). (6.1.7)
s.t.:
c(t ) + s(t ) ≤ yˆ (t ), (6.1.8)
Proposition 6.1.1
Let U (c , s ) : R+2 → R1 be a C 1 function that satisfies the monotonicity as-
sumption, which says that ∂U / ∂c > 0 and ∂U / ∂s > 0 for each (c , s )
satisfying the constraint set in problem (6.1.8). Suppose that (c * , s * )
maximizes U on the constraint set. Then, there is a scalar λ * > 0 such that
∂U * *
(c , s ) ≤ λ * , ∂U (c* , s* ) ≤ λ * .
∂c ∂s
We have ∂U / ∂c = λ * if c* ≠ 0 and ∂U / ∂s = λ * if s * ≠ 0 . If both
c* > 0 and s * > 0, then
∂U * *
(c , s ) = λ * , ∂U (c* , s * ) = λ * .
∂c ∂s
Conversely, suppose that U is a C 1 function, which satisfies the
monotonicity assumption and that (c * , s * ) > 0 and the first order condi-
tions. If U is C 2 and if
0 1 1
H = 1 U cc U cs = 2U cs − U cc − U ss > 0 ,
1 U sc U ss
The proof of this proposition and other general properties of the prob-
lem can be found in standard textbooks of microeconomics or mathemati-
cal economics.8 We require that U is a C 2 function, and satisfies
U c > 0, U s > 0 for any (c , s ) > 0 . It can be shown that that
0 < ds / dyˆ < 1 and 0 < dc / dyˆ < 1 in the case of U sc ≥ 0 under the sec-
ond-order condition of maximization. We denote an optimal solution as
function of the disposable income
(c(t ), s(t )) = (c( yˆ (t )), s( yˆ (t ))).
8 See Chiang (1984), Mas-Colell, et al. (1995), and Simon and Blume (1994).
6.1 The One-Sector Growth (OSG) Model of a Closed Economy 183
The vector (c( yˆ (t )), s ( yˆ (t ))) is known as the Walrasian (or ordinary or
market) demand function, when it is single-valued for all positive dispos-
able income.
If the utility function is taken on the Cobb-Douglas function
U (t ) = c ξ (t )s λ (t ), ξ + λ = 1, ξ , λ > 0 , (6.1.9)
Inserting
K& (t )
k&(t ) = − nk (t ),
N (t )
in Eq. (6.1.11) yields
k&(t ) = s ( yˆ (t )) − (1 + n )k (t ),
where
Yˆ (t )
yˆ (k (t )) ≡ = f (k (t )) + k (t ).
N (t )
In a stationary state
s( yˆ ( k ) ) = (1 + n )k .
It can be shown that this equation has a unique solution.
184 6 Growth of Small Open-Economies with Capital Accumulation
Theorem 6.1.19
Given a neoclassical production function and a utility function that is a C 2
function, and satisfies U c > 0, U s > 0 for any (c(t ), s(t )) > 0 . Let the
bordered Hessian be positive for any nonnegative (c(t ), s (t )). Then the
capital-labor ratio converges monotonically to a unique positive steady
state. The unique stationary state is stable.
k&(t )
0 k* k
k& = s ( yˆ ) − (1 + n )k
Zhang (2005a).
6.2 The Ramsey Growth Model and the OSG Approach 185
Section 6.1 introduces the OSG model. This section examines the Ramsey
growth model (which is the most popular approach in economic growth
theory with optimal foundation). As the OSG approach is an alternative
approach to the Ramsey approach, we will compare the two approaches.
The Ramsey growth model is a neoclassical model of economic growth
based primarily on the work of Frank Ramsey. Keynes considered Ram-
sey’s 1928 classic paper to be
found reason or empirical test, any valid alternative to the dominant framework
will rationally meet with obstacles.
186 6 Growth of Small Open-Economies with Capital Accumulation
c1 − θ (t ) − 1 (6.2.1)
u (t ) = , θ > 0,
1−θ
where θ is a parameter, u ' > 0 , u" < 0 , and u satisfies the Inada condi-
tions: u ' → ∞ as c → 0 and u ' → 0 as c → ∞ .
Assume that each household maximizes utility U as given by
∞
k& = w + rk − c − nk = f (k ) − c − nk . (6.2.2)
The equation means that the change rate of assets per person is equal to
per capita income minus per capita consumption and the term, nk .
The first-order conditions are
∂J
= 0 ⇒ λ = u ' e −( ρ − n ) t ,
∂c
dλ ∂J dλ (6.2.3)
=− ⇒ = − (ρ − n )λ ,
dt ∂k dt
where λ is the present-value shadow price of income. By Eq. (6.2.3), we
can derive
u" c 1 dc (6.2.4)
r=ρ− .
u ' c dt
This equation says that households choose consumption so as to equate
the rate of return r to the rate of time preference ρ plus the rate of de-
crease of the marginal utility of consumption u ' due to growing per capita
consumption c. Inserting Eq. (6.2.1) in Eq. (6.2.4) yields
r−ρ f'− ρ (6.2.5)
c& = c (t ) = c.
θ θ
6.2 The Ramsey Growth Model and the OSG Approach 187
c(t )
c&(t )
c*
k&(t )
k* k (t )
Fig. 6.2.1. The dynamics of the Ramsey model
(ρ − n ) ± (ρ − n )2 − 4 f "c / θ (6.2.6)
φ1, 2 = .
2
The Ramsey model is controlled by a system of two differential equa-
tions. Together with the initial conditions and the transversality condition,
this system determines the path of the two variables. At stationary state,
the per capita variables, k , c and y ( ≡ Y / N ), grow at the rate, 0, and
188 6 Growth of Small Open-Economies with Capital Accumulation
the level variables, K , C and Y , grow at the rate, n. It can be shown that
the system has a unique steady state. Since the two eigenvalues have the
opposite signs, the system is locally saddle-path stable.15
The dynamical behavior of the Ramsey model is controlled by
k& = w + rk − c − nk = f − c − nk ,
The propensity to own wealth λ tends to rise (fall) when k& rises (falls);
it tends to rise (fall) when r < (>) ρ . We may interpret that the direction of
change in λ is influenced by the direction of change in wealth as well as
whether the rate of return of wealth is larger or smaller than the rate of
time preference. If the wealth is increasing and the rate of time preference
is larger than the rate of return, then the propensity to save will definitely
rise. If the wealth is falling and the rate of time preference is smaller than
the rate of return, the propensity tends to fall. In the other cases, the pro-
pensity may either increase or decrease.
Under Eq. (6.2.9), the consumption per capita in the OSG model
evolves in the same way as in the Ramsey model. We now examine the
fundamental equation of the OSG, i.e.
k& = λf (k ) − (1 − λ + n )k .
By c = (1 − λ )( f + k ), the above equation can be rewritten as
k& = f (k ) − c − nk . (6.2.10)
Theorem 6.2.1
Let the production sectors be identical in the OSG model and the Ramsey
model. If the propensity to save, λ (t ), evolves according to Eq. (6.2.9),
then the OSG model generates the same dynamics of capital-labor ratio,
k (t ), and per-capita consumption, c(t ), as the Ramsey model does.
This example illustrates how the Ramsey model is related to the OSG
model. We can similarly examine relationships between the two ap-
proaches when utility functions are taken on other forms.
We now explain another difference between the OSG and Ramsey ap-
proaches. The OSG model determines consumption as follows
c& = (1 − λ )( f ' + 1)k& ,
where λ is a constant. The change rate of consumption is positively re-
lated to the rate of interest. The rational household has increasing, station-
ary, or decreasing consumption according to whether the wealth rises, is
stationary, or falls. The consumer adapts consumption level not according
to the difference between the interest rate and discount rate for utility as
the Ramsey model predicts, as shown below. According to the this model,
a Japanese consumer would consume more, irrespective of low interest, if
his wealth increases; he would consume less, irrespective of high interest
rate, when his wealth falls. On the other hand, the Ramsey model predicts
f ' (k (t )) − ρ
c&(t ) = c(t ).
θ
This implies that the difference between r and ρ determines whether
households choose a pattern of per capita consumption that rises, stays
constant or falls over time. The optimizing household has increasing, sta-
tionary, or decreasing consumption according as the current real interest
rate exceeds, equals, or falls short of the utility discount rate. According to
190 6 Growth of Small Open-Economies with Capital Accumulation
this result, consumption always falls if the interest rate is low and the util-
ity discount rate is high.
It should be noted that in 1937 Paul Samuelson published an article on
discounted utility. Since then, the discounted utility was rapidly adopted as
the framework of choice for intertemporal decisions. It is worthwhile to
cite from Samuelson’s following cautions:
Any connection between utility as discussed here and any welfare concept is
disavowed.16
It is completely arbitrary to assume that the individual behaves so as to maxi-
mize an integral of the form envisaged in [the discounted utility model].17
∫ U [C (t )]e
− ρt
dt .
0
the discounted utility. Almost all the papers involved with intertemporal decisions
in well-cited theoretical economic journals use the utility concept.
6.2 The Ramsey Growth Model and the OSG Approach 191
Although the validity of the Ramsey approach has been questioned over
years, it is quite another matter to create a “more effective” alternative.21
Instead of searching for another approach, the main attitude toward the ap-
proach is illustrated by Turnovsky (2000: 273)
dominant idea like the discounted utility may take years or decades. Keynes
(1936) says: “the difficulty lies, not in the new ideas, but in escaping the old ones,
which ramify … into every corner of our minds.”
192 6 Growth of Small Open-Economies with Capital Accumulation
This “reformist” attitude of refinement and extensions will not solve es-
sential problems in the approach.
This book will use an alternative utility function not only because the
validity of the discounted utility concept has been questioned from phi-
losophical, psychological or/and empirical aspects,22 but also because
many obviously significant issues, such as growth with heterogeneous
households and growth with interregional dynamics, can hardly be prop-
erly discussed with the concept as having become evident in the history of
theoretical economics in the last 40 years. Since the Ramsey approach has
been so influential in the contemporary monetary growth theory, I will de-
scribe monetary growth models within the approach in the main context.
and Rogoff (1995b), Benigno and Benigno (2003), and Galí and Monacelli (2005),
for the literature of open economies. It can be seen that the model here can be
generalized and extended in different directions. Nevertheless, this book will not
deal with open economies when we study international trade. We try to treat every
economy as a part of the integrated whole. As shown later on, as we can develop a
global economy model of any number of economies, it is not necessary, at least
technically, to be concerned with small open economies.
6.3 A Small Open Economy with Capital Accumulation 193
rest of the world or exports goods and services and lend resources abroad.
For convenience of illustration, assume that there is a single good in the
world economy and the price of the goods is unity.24
The production sector is identical to that in the OSG model for the closed
economy. Let K (t ) denote the capital stocks employed by the economy at
time t and N ( = 1 ) the flow of labor services used at time t for produc-
tion.25 The production function F (t ) defines the flow of production at time
t. We assume that F (K (t ), N ) is neoclassical.26 Let w(t ) stand for the real
wage rate and r * (t ) the real interest rate for borrowing or lending in the
world capital market at time t. For illustration, we fix the interest rate dur-
ing the study period. The marginal conditions are
r * + δ k = f ' (k (t )), w(t ) = f (k (t )) − k (t ) f ' (t ), (6.3.1)
24 We may also classify output into traded and non-traded goods. There are
some models of small open economies with non-traded goods (for instance, Engel
and Kletzer, 1989). We will deal with an open monetary economy with traded and
non-traded goods in Chap. 11. By the way, it is important to introduce tariffs (see,
Sen and Turnovsky, 1989), fixed specific factors (see, for instance, Guilló and
Perez-Sebastian, 2007), and renewable resources (see, for instance, Harris, 1981;
Tawada, 1982; Brander and Taylor, 1997; Hannesson, 2000) into small-open eco-
nomic models. It can be seen that the main ideas of these approaches can be inte-
grated into the framework proposed in this section.
25 We assume a homogeneous population of size 1 and full employment of the
Y (t ) = r * a(t )N + wN = F (t ) − δ k K (t ) + E (t ), (6.3.2)
r * K (t ) + w(t )N = F (t ) − δ k K (t ).
The current income of the households is equal to the sum of the econ-
omy’s net output, F − δ k K , and the country’s interest earned on foreign
assets, r * B . The gross national product (GNP) is measured as the sum of
the value of the net output produced within its borders and net interna-
tional factor payments. The GNP is given by F + E. The output produced
within the country’s geographical borders is called gross domestic product
(GDP), The GDP is given by F . A country’s current balance at time t is
the change in the value of its net claims over the rest of the world – the
change in its net foreign assets. If B& (t ) > 0, the economy as a whole is
lending (in this case we say that the current account balance is in surplus);
if B& (t ) < 0, the economy as a whole is borrowing (the current account bal-
ance is in deficit); and if B& (t ) = 0, the economy as a whole is neither bor-
rowing nor lending (the current account balance is in balance).
The disposable income is given by Y (t ) = Y (t ) + a (t )N . From (6.3.2),
we have
Y (t ) = (1 + r * )a(t )N + wN = w0 N + (1 + r * )B(t ), (6.3.3)
where
w0 ≡ (1 + r * )g + h .
In a stationary state
s (w0 (r * ) + (1 + r * )b ) = g (r * ) + b .
We now show that this equation has a unique solution. Define
Φ(b) ≡ s (w0 (r * ) + (1 + r * )b ) − g (r * ) − b . (6.3.8)
196 6 Growth of Small Open-Economies with Capital Accumulation
~ w (r * )
b≥b ≡− 0 *.
1+ r
we may have Φ(b ) < 0. As Φ ' (b) = (1 + r * )s' − 1, we may have Φ ' (b ) < 0
if r * is small and s ' is properly smaller than unity.27 If Φ (b ) < 0 and
~
Φ' (b ) < 0 for b ≥ b , then the dynamic system has a unique equilibrium. Let
b* stand for an equilibrium point. As
∂b&
= Φ' (b* ) = (1 + r * )s ' − 1.
∂b b = b*
Hence, if Φ ' (b ) < 0, the dynamic system has a unique stable equilibrium
point.
In the case of Φ' (b ) < 0 at the equilibrium we can examine effects of
change in the rate of interest. Take derivatives of Φ' (b ) < 0 with respect to
r*
dg 1 − (1 + r * )s' (6.3.9)
Φ'
db
= − (w0 (r *
) + b )s ' + = − bs ' ,
dr * dr * f"
where we use
dh 1 + r *
dw0
= g + (
1 + r )
* dg
+ = < 0.
dr * dr * dr * f"
Using Φ' < 0, 0 < s ' ≤ 0, f " < 0 and 1 > (1 + r * )s ' , we conclude
db / dr * > 0. As the rate of interest increases, the value of the country’s net
foreign assets rises. As
dy 1 + r *
+ b + (1 + r * ) * ,
db
*
=
dr f" dr
properties.
6.3 A Small Open Economy with Capital Accumulation 197
To illustrate the analytical results and to simulate the model, we now ex-
amine the model with the following utility and production functions
F (t ) = AK α (t )N β , α , β > 0, α + β = 1,
U (t ) = c ξ (t )s λ (t ), ξ + λ = 1, ξ , λ > 0. (6.3.10)
where
αA
r0 = .
r + δk
*
where
λw0 − r01 / β
b* ≡ .
ξ − λr *
b(t )
equilibium
b(t )
Lemma 6.3.1
Assume ξ − λr * > 0. The dynamic system has a unique stable equilibrium
point.
We simulate the model to illustrate how the equilibrium values are af-
fected by parameters. First, we examine the impact of r * on the equilib-
rium values. We specify the other parameters as follows
α = 0.35, A = 1, λ = 0.7, δ k = 0.05. (6.3.15)
1.5 c
b λ
0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14 1.45
-2
1.4
-4
1.35
-6
0.02 0.04 0.060.08 0.1 0.12 0.14 λ
-8 1.25
Fig. 6.3.2. The impact of the international interest rate, 0 < r * < 0.15
We now allow λ to vary, with r * = 0.03 and the values of the other pa-
rameters specified as (6.3.15), we have the effects of change in the propen-
sity to save as in Fig. 6.3.3.
α = 0.35, A = 1, λ = 0.7, δ k = 0.05. (6.3.15)
As the propensity to save rises, both the foreign assets and the consump-
tion level increase. It should be noted that in an autarky economy, a rise in
the propensity to reduce per-capita consumption level when the propensity
to save is high. As the economy in trade is faced with a fixed rate of inter-
est, accumulated wealth will not reduce the return rate from wealth as in
the autarky case.29
8 1.7
6
1.6
4
2 1.5
We are concerned with an open economy where the rate of interest is fixed
in international market. In order to describe impact of trade on the national
economic growth, it is proper to compare two extreme types of economies
– a completely open economy and an isolated economy with the same
preference and technology.30 The key concept for the comparison is the au-
tarky real interest rate, that is, the rate of interest that prevails in an econ-
omy barred from international borrowing and lending.
As the two economies have similar variables, if x is a variable value in
the open economy, then x̂ stands for the corresponding variable value in
the autarky economy. We assume that the two economic systems have the
same preference and technology, which are specified as in (6.3.10). From
Sect. 6.3.3, we know that the dynamics of the open economy are described
by
f (t ) = Ak α (t ), k = r01 / β , w = βAr0α / β , U (t ) = c ξ (t )s λ (t ),
1/ β
λA − βξ k t λA
kˆ(t ) = kˆ β (0) − e + ,
ξ k ξ k (6.3.17)
comparison is limited.
6.3 A Small Open Economy with Capital Accumulation 201
αξ k αξ − βλδ k
rˆ = − δk = ,
λ λ
we see that rˆ − r * > (< ) 0 if αξ / λ > (< ) r * + βδ k , that is
α
> (< ) λ.
r + α + βδ k
*
y = (1 + r * )r01 / β + βAr0α / β + (1 + r * )
((α + r *
+ βδ k )λ − α )r01 / β
,
α (ξ − λr * )
α /β 1/ β
λA λA
yˆ = A + δ ,
ξk ξk
we have
202 6 Growth of Small Open-Economies with Capital Accumulation
y − yˆ
= (1 + r *
) +
(r * + δ k )β +
r01 / β α
(1 + r ) ((α + r + βδ k )λ − α ) ξ k ~ β (r * + δ k ) ~
*
r ~ r
*
− − δr = − ,
α (ξ − λr )*
λ α (ξ − λr ) λ
* (6.3.18)
Lemma 6.3.2
If α / (r * + α + βδ k ) > (< ) λ , then the autarky economy’s equilibrium rate
of interest is higher (lower) than the internationally fixed interest rate. The
capital intensity, per-capita output and wage rate in the trade economy are
higher (lower) than the corresponding variables in the autarky economy.
0.06 0.25
0.04 r * − rˆ 0.2
0.02
0.15
0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14
-0.02
0.1
c − cˆ
-0.04
-0.06 0.05
-0.08
0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14
a) the interest rates b) per-capita consumption levels
Fig. 6.3.4. The differences in the two economies as r * changes, 0 < r * < 0.15
We now allow λ to vary, with r * = 0.05 and the values of the other pa-
rameters specified as (6.3.15), we have the effects of change in the propen-
sity to save as in Fig. 6.3.5. As the propensity to save rises, the difference
6.4 Growth and Agglomeration of a Small-Open Multi-Regional Economy 203
between the international interest rate and the interest rate in the autarky
system rises. When r * reaches near 0.76, the difference is changing its
sign from negative to positive. We see that free trade benefits the economy
in terms of (long-term) per-capita consumption.
0.6
0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.5
-0.2
-0.4
0.4 c − cˆ
0.3
-0.6
r * − rˆ 0.2
-0.8
0.1
-1
0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9
a) the interest rates b) per-capita consumption levels
Fig.6.3.5 The differences in the two economies as τ changes, 0 < τ < 0.9
streams of) economics until new economic geography has recently ob-
tained much attention.32 A main purpose of economic geography is to ex-
plain the empirical fact that economic activity and population distribution
are not spatially random. It is important to give a micro-economic founda-
tion for studying clustering of people and firms using a general equilibrium
framework. Although many papers and books have been recently pub-
lished in the field of new economic geography, almost all these works have
been concerned with imperfect competition and have neglected capital ac-
cumulation.33 The purpose of this section is to develop a general equilib-
rium framework with multiple regions and capital accumulation under per-
fect competition. Different from the new economic geography which has
been mainly concerned with monopolistic competition, scale economies,
and transport costs in economic geography, this model studies perfection
competition, amenity, and technological differences (with constant returns
to scale).34 We show how different regions in an open economy interaction
with each other with capital accumulation and differences in amenity, fac-
tor endowments and productivity. Although some attempts have been
made to apply neoclassical growth theory to address spatial growth issues,
these models do not take account of land and regional differences in amen-
ity, which are generally considered as important factors of economic geog-
raphy.35 The objective of this section is to study growth of a small open
economy with economic geography. There are some economic models
which deal with growth and capital accumulation of small open econo-
topic. Obviously, capital accumulation and capital mobility are important vari-
ables for explaining spatial dynamics. Clustering of people into a single metropoli-
tan area like Tokyo or Shanghai can hardly be explained without taking capital as
endogenous variables. As argued by Zhang (2005a, 2006a), capital accumulation,
which is the key aspect of the neoclassical growth theory and is obviously a key
dimension of modern economic evolution, is largely neglected in new growth the-
ory as well as new economic theory.
34 A comprehensive model of economic geography should take account of not
only scale economies and transport costs (like in Krugman’s models), but also
amenity and factor endowment differences (like in Glaeser’s approach and this
model). In this stage, we are concentrated on perfect competition, amenity, factor
endowments and productivity differences among regions).
35 Extending neoclassical growth theory to spatial economics is made by, for in-
Most aspects of the model are the same as the model in Sect. 6.3, except
that we add housing sector and refine national economy into multiple re-
gions. The system consists of multiple regions, indexed by j = 1, ..., J .
Perfect competition is assumed to prevail in good markets both within each
region and among the regions, and commodities are traded without any
barriers such as transport costs or tariffs. The labor markets are perfectly
competitive within each region and among regions. Let prices be measured
in terms of the commodity and the price of the commodity be unity. We
denote wage and interest rates by w j (t ) and r j (t ) , respectively, in the
36 Refer to, for instance, Obstfeld and Rogoff (1999), Lane (2001), Koolmann
(2001, 2002), Benigno and Benigno (2003), and Galí and Monacelli (2005), for
the literature on economics of open economies.
37 This approach is represented by Ianchovichina and McDougall (2001).
38 See, for instance, Isard (1953), Hewings and Jensen (1986), Batten (1982),
Behavior of producers
We assume that there are only two productive factors, capital, K j (t ) ,
and labor, N j (t ), at each point of time t. The production functions are
given by
F j (K j (t ), N j (t )), j = 1, L, J ,
F j (t ) K j (t ) (6.4.1)
f j (t ) = f j (k j (t )), f j (t ) ≡ , k j (t ) ≡ .
N j (t ) N j (t )
Markets are competitive; thus labor and capital earn their marginal prod-
ucts, and firms earn zero profits. The rate of interest, r * , and wage rates,
w j (t ), are determined by markets. Hence, for any individual firm r * and
w j (t ) are given at each point of time. The production sector chooses the
two variables, K j (t ) and N j (t ), to maximize its profit. The marginal con-
ditions are given by
r * + δ kj = f j' (k j ), w j (t ) = f j (k j ) − k j f j' (k j ), (6.4.2)
Behavior of consumers
Each worker may get income from land ownership, wealth ownership
and wages. In order to define incomes, it is necessary to determine land
ownership structure. It can be seen that land properties may be distributed
in multiple ways under various institutions. To simplify the model, we ac-
cept the assumption of “absentee landownership” which means that the in-
come of land rent is spent outside the economic system. A possible case is
that the land is owned by the government.39 Households rent the land in
competitive market and the government uses the income for military or
other public purposes. Consumers make decisions on choice of lot size,
consumption levels of services and commodities as well as on how much
to save.
Let a~ j (t ) stand for the wealth owned by a household in region j. The
household in region j obtains income
y j (t ) = r * a~ j (t ) + w j , j = 1, L, J , (6.4.4)
from the interest payment, r *a~ j (t ), and the wage payment, w j . The dis-
posable income is equal to
yˆ j (t ) = y j (t ) + a~ j (t ). (6.4.5)
should be noted that we can refine the model by introducing urban structures
(Zhang, 1996, 2007c).
6.4 Growth and Agglomeration of a Small-Open Multi-Regional Economy 209
θ j (t ) = θ j F ja (t )N bj (t ), j = 1, L, J ,
40 See, for instance, Kanemoto (1980), Diamond and Tolley (1981), Blomquist et
al. (1988), and Andersson et al. (2003).
41 This section does not take account of externalities for producers. Firms often
in which
1
η ≡ ρη 0 , ξ ≡ ρη 0 , λ ≡ ρη 0 , ρ ≡ .
η 0 + ξ 0 + λ0
According to the definitions of s j (t ), the wealth accumulation of the
representative person in region j is given by
a~& j (t ) = s j (t ) − a~ j (t ) . (6.4.10)
42 Fujita (1989) provides some models with the assumption of equalizing utility
The total wealth of the national economy is the sum of the wealth
owned by all the households
~ J
(6.4.13)
A(t ) = ∑ a~ (t )N (t ).
j j
j =1
where
J J J
C (t ) ≡ ∑ c j (t )N j (t ), S (t ) ≡ ∑ s j (t )N j (t ), F (t ) ≡ ∑ F j (t ).
j =1 j =1 j =1
The assumption that labor force and land are fully employed is repre-
sented by
J
(6.4.15)
∑ N (t ) = N , l (t )N (t ) = L ,
j =1
j j j j j = 1, L, J .
We have
J
B (t ) = ∑ B j (t ).
j =1
212 6 Growth of Small Open-Economies with Capital Accumulation
Y (t ) ≡ ∑ y j (t )N j (t ) = ∑ (r * a~ j (t ) + w j )N j (t ).
J J
j =1 j =1
Y (t ) ≡ ∑ y j (t )N j (t ) = ∑ (r * a~ j (t ) + w j )N j (t ).
J J
j =1 j =1
where we also use Eqs. (6.4.12), (6.4.13) and (6.4.15). From this equation
and Eq. (6.4.16), we have
J
Y (t ) = F (t ) − ∑δ kj K j (t ) + r * B (t ).
j =1
The national current income is equal to the sum of the economy’s net
output
J
F (t ) − ∑δ kj K j (t ),
j =1
and the country’s interest earned on foreign assets, r * B(t ). The gross na-
tional product (GNP) is measured as the sum of the value of the net output
produced within its borders and net international factor payments. The
GNP is given by F (t ) + E (t ). We introduce
G (t ) ≡ F (t ) + E (t ).
G j (t ) ≡ Fj (t ) + r * B j (t ).
where we use
R j l j + c j + s j = ra~ j + w j + a~ j , Fj = (r * + δ kj )K j + w j N j .
That is
F j = (R j l j + c j + s j − a~ j )N j + δ kj K j + r * B j .
(F j − R j l j N j − c j N j − δ kj K j ) + (s j N j − a~ j N j − r * B j ) = 0 ,
Lemma 6.4.1
The variables, k j , w j and f j , are uniquely determined as functions of
r * . The motion of the levels of the per-capita wealth is given by
214 6 Growth of Small Open-Economies with Capital Accumulation
λw j (6,4,18)
a~ j (t ) = a~ j (0)e −λ t + * , j = 1, L, J ,
*
λ
in which λ* ≡ 1 − λ − λr * . The other variables are uniquely determined by
the following procedure: yˆ j (t ) = (1 + r * )a~ j (t ) + w j , j = 1, ..., J →
g j yˆ ηj (t )N
N j (t ) = , j = 1, ... , J ,
∑ g yˆ η (t )
J
j =1 j j
where
a / (η − a − b ) 1 / (η − a − b )
fj θ j Lηj ξ +λ
g j ≡ , η ≡ ,
θ Lη η −a−b
f1 1 1
→ F j (t ) = f j N j (t ) → F (t ) = ∑ j F j (t ) → K (t ) = ∑ j k j N j (t ) →
~ ~
A(t ) = ∑ j a~ j (t )N j (t ) → B(t ) = A(t ) − K (t ) → G (t ) = F (t ) + r * B(t ) →
B j (t ) = (a~ j (t ) − k j )N j (t ) → l j (t ) = L j / N j (t ) → R j (t ) = ηyˆ j (t ) / l j (t ) →
c j (t ) and s j (t ) by Eqs. (6.4.9).
Theorem 6.4.1
The dynamic system has a unique stable equilibrium point.
A1 1.5 θ1 4 η 0 0.07 L1 3
A2 = 1.3 , θ 2 = 3 .8 , ξ 0 = 0.10 , L2 = 4 ,.
A 1 λ 0.83 L 6
3 θ 3 4.3 0 3
216 6 Growth of Small Open-Economies with Capital Accumulation
δ k1 0.05 (6.4.20)
δ k 2 = 0.06
δ 0.05
k3
The rate of interest is fixed at 4 per cent and the population is 10 . Re-
gion 1 has the highest level of productivity. Region 2 ’s level of productiv-
ity is the second, next to region 1’s. We term region 1 as the coastal re-
gion (CR), region 2 the inner region (IR), and region 3 the hinterland
region (HR). It should be remarked that although the specified values are
not based on empirical observations, the choice does not seem to be unre-
alistic. For instance, some empirical studies on the US economy demon-
strate that the value of the parameter, α , in the Cobb-Douglas production
is approximately equal to 0.3. With regard to the technological parame-
ters, what are important in our interregional study are their relative values.
This is similarly true for the specified differences in land and amenity pa-
rameters among regions.
First, we calculate the time-independent variables
k1 = 9.966 , k 2 = 6.988 , k3 = 5.584 , f1 = 2.990 , f 2 = 2.330 ,
The initial per-capita wealth are equal in the three regions. As shown in
Fig. 6.4.1, the variables approach their equilibrium values.
The initial values of the per-capita wealth, k j (0), are smaller than their
equilibrium values. Figure 6.4.1a shows that the wealth levels of the
households in all the regions increase over time. From Fig. 6.4.1b and 1c,
the CR’s population and output level rise and the other two regions’ popu-
lation and output levels fall. The GDP, F , rises over time. The GNP and
the CR’s GRP rise and the other two regions’ GRPs fall. The net foreign
assets, B(t ), rise. The current account balance, B& (t ), is in surplus over
time. The per-capita consumption levels rise. The lot size in region 1 falls
6.4 Growth and Agglomeration of a Small-Open Multi-Regional Economy 217
and the land rent rises. The lot sizes in the other two regions rise and the
land rents fall.
12 25
11
k2
6
N1 20 F F1
10 k1 15
4
9
8
N2 10
7
k3 2
5 F2
N3 t
5 10 15 20 25 30t 5 10 15 20 25 30 5F310 15 20 25 30 t
~ (t )
(a) a (b) N j (t ) (c) F (t ) and F j (t )
j
25
G B'
3
20 G1 20 B
'
15 10 B1 2 B 1
10
B2
G2 25B330 t
1
5 5 10 15 20 B2'
-10 t
5G310 15 20 25 30 t B3' 5 10 15 20 25 30
8 2.5
1.4 c1 2 R1
1.2
c2 6
l3 1.5
4
t 2
l2 1 R2
5 10 15 20 25 30 l1 0.5
c3 20 25 30 t
0.8
5 10 15 20 25 30 t 5 10 15
R3
(g) c j (t ) (h) l j (t ) (l) R j (t )
The previous section plots the motion of the variables. This section exam-
ines how the rate of interest affects the national economy. As we have ex-
plicitly solved the model, it is straightforward to make comparative dy-
namic analysis. First, we examine the case that all the parameters, except
the rate of interest, r * , are the same as in (6.4.20). We study what will
happen to the dynamics of the economic system if the rate of interest is
changed as follows43
43 As we have explicitly solved the dynamics, we can also carry out compara-
tive dynamic analysis by assuming that the rate of interest varies in time, r * (t ).
218 6 Growth of Small Open-Economies with Capital Accumulation
r * = 0.04 ⇒ 0.03.
The rate falls from 4 % to 3 % in the international market. We intro-
duce a variable, ∆x(t ), to stand for the change rate of the variable, x(t ), in
percentage due to changes in the parameter value. That is
x(t ; a ) − x(t ; a0 )
∆x(t ) ≡ ×100 ,
x(t ; a0 )
where x(t ; a ) stands for the value of the variable, x(t ), with the parameter
value, a , at time t and x(t ; a0 ) stands for the value of the variable, x(t ),
with the parameter value, a0 , at time t .
The effects on k j , f j and w j are given as follows
2 7
∆k1 6 ∆F1
0.5
∆k2 1 ∆ N1 5
t 5 10 15 20 25 30
t 4 ∆F
5 10 15 20 25 30 -1 3
-0.5 -2 ∆N 3 2 ∆F2
-1 -3
1
∆F3
∆k3 ∆N 2 5 10 15 20 25 30 t
6 t 1
0.5 ∆B
5 10 15 20 25 30 '
-2.5
4 ∆G1 -5 ∆B3 ∆B '
2 ∆B2 3
∆G
-7.5 5 10 15 20 25 30 t
-10 -0.5
2 ∆G2 -12.5 ∆B1 ∆B '
∆G3 -15
∆B
-1
5 10 15 20 25 30 t -17.5 -1.5
∆B1'
(d) ∆G (t ) and ∆G j (t ) (e) ∆B (t ) and ∆B j (t ) (f) ∆B' (t ) and ∆B j (t )
4 3
∆c1 3 ∆l2 2 ∆R1
0.5 1
2
5 15 20 25 30 t
10∆c 1 ∆l3 5 10 15 20 25 30
t
2 -1
-0.5
5 10 15 20 25 30t -2 ∆R3
-1
∆c3 -1
-2
∆ l1 -3
-4
∆R2
(g) ∆c j (t ) (h) ∆l j (t ) (l) ∆R j (t )
This section examines how changes in the preference affect the national
economy. First, we examine effects of a fall in the propensity to save,
specified as follows: λ0 = 0.83 ⇒ 0.80 . We note that the preference will
not affect the capital intensities, k j , per-capita output levels, f j , and
wage rates, w j . Hence, we will not mention these variables in this section.
The simulation results are plotted in Fig. 6.4.3. Figure 6.4.3a shows that
the wealth of the households in all the regions fall. From Fig. 6.4.3b and
3c, both the CR’s population and output level fall. Some people move
away from the CR and they migrate either to the IR or to the HR. As the
propensity to save falls, the propensities to consume goods and housing are
relatively increased. This results in that the CR becomes less attractive be-
cause of its high land rent. As the two other regions’ populations are in-
creased and the per-capita output levels are not affected by the preference
change, the CR’s output falls and the other two regions’ output levels rise.
220 6 Growth of Small Open-Economies with Capital Accumulation
The national output level falls as the propensity to save falls. The GNP and
the CR’s GRP fall and the other two regions’ GRPs rise. The net foreign
assets, B(t ), fall. The current account balance, B& (t ), is in deficit. The lot
size in region 1 rises and the land rent rises initially and then falls. The lot
sizes in the other two regions fall and their land rents rise. The per-capita
consumption levels rise initially mainly because the propensity to consume
goods rises and the disposable income does not fall much; but the per-
capita consumption levels falls because the per-capita wealth is reduced as
a consequence in the fall in the propensity to save.
30 t 3
5 10 15 20 25 3 ∆F3
-1 ∆N 3
-2 ∆k1 ≥ ∆k2 ≥ ∆k3
2
∆N 2 2
∆F2
1 1
-3
∆F
-4 5 10 15 20 25 30t 5 10 15 20 25 30t
∆N1 ∆F1
~ (t )
(a) ∆a j (b) ∆N j (t ) (c) ∆F (t ) and ∆F j (t )
∆B3 ∆B53' 10
∆G3 30t
3
5 10 15 20 25 15 20 25 30t
2 -1 ∆B2 -0.1 ∆B2'
∆G2 -2
1
-3 ∆B1 -0.2 ∆B1'
t -0.3
5 10 15 20 25 30 -4
∆B ∆B '
-1
∆G1 ∆G -5
3
∆c1 ≥ ∆c2 ≥ ∆c3 ∆ l1 t 3
∆R3
2 5 10 15 20 25 30 2
1
-1
1 ∆R2
-2
∆ l2 t
t 5 10 15 20 25 30
5 10 15 20 25 30 -3
∆l 3 -1 ∆R1
(g) ∆c j (t ) (h) ∆l j (t ) (l) ∆R j (t )
relatively more important for residents, people move away from the CR
and migrate to the IR and the HR. The consumption levels in the three re-
gions are reduced. From Fig. 6.4.4b and 4c, both the CR’s population and
output level rise. Some people move away from the CR and they migrate
either to the IR or to the HR. The other variables change as in the case of
the decrease in the propensity to save.
t 50 50
-2.5
-5
5 10 15 20 25 30 40 ∆N 3 40
-7.5 ∆k1 ≥ ∆k2 ≥ ∆k3 30
∆N 2 30 ∆F3
-10
-12.5
20
10
20
10
∆F2
∆F
10 15 20 25 30 t
-15
-17.5 5 10 15 20 25 30t 5
-10
∆N1 -10 ∆F1
~ (t )
(a) ∆a j (b) ∆N j (t ) (c) ∆F (t ) and ∆F j (t )
10 70
-2.5 5 10 15 20 25 30 t ∆ l1 60 ∆R2
-5 5 10 15 20 25 30
t 50 ∆R3
-7.5 ∆c1 ≥ ∆c2 ≥ ∆c3 -10 40
-10
-12.5 ∆l2 30
20
-15
-20
10 ∆R1
-17.5 -30 ∆l3 t
5 10 15 20 25 30
This section examines how changes in the parameters in the amenity func-
tions, θ j (t ) = θ j N bj . First, we examine effects of a fall in the parameter,
b , as follows
b = − 0.1 ⇒ − 0.05 .
A decrease in the parameter value may result from that, for instance,
people like more to live in large cities. Although cities have disamenities,
222 6 Growth of Small Open-Economies with Capital Accumulation
cities also offer a great variety of life styles and many work opportunities.
It is significant to examine how this parameter affects regional agglomera-
tion. The variables, k j , f j and w j are not affected by the preference
change.
The simulation results are plotted in Fig. 6.4.5. The per-capita wealth
and consumption levels are not affected by the parameter change. As peo-
ple like more to live with other people in the same region, people immi-
grate to the CR from the IR and HR. As the parameter is increased, people
tend to agglomerate into regions with high productivity. This parameter
may help us understand why people tend to be concentrated in a few met-
ropolitan areas, for instance, in Japan. As b rises, the CR’s output level is
increased mainly due to the increase in the labor force and the output lev-
els in the other two regions fall. As more people move to the region with
the highest productivity, the national output level rises.
1 ∆F1
10 ∆ N1 10
t
0.5 5 10 15 20 25 30t 5 10 15 ∆20
F 25 30
∆k j = 0 t
-10
-20
-10
-20
5 10 15 20 25 30 -30 ∆N 2 -30 ∆F2
-0.5 -40
-50 ∆N 3 -40
-50
-1 -60 -60 ∆F3
~ (t )
(a) ∆a j (b) ∆N j (t ) (c) ∆F (t ) and ∆F j (t )
∆G1 0.5
10 2 ∆B1' ≥ ∆B '
-10 5 10 15 ∆G25 30t
20 1 ∆B1 5 10 15 20 25 30 t
-20 ∆B -0.5
-30 ∆G2 5 10 15 20 25 30t -1
-40
-50
-1 ∆B3 -1.5 ∆B3' ≥ ∆B2'
-60 ∆G3 -2 ∆B2 -2
1
125 10 ∆R1
0.5 100 ∆ l2 5 10 15 20 25 30 t
∆c j = 0 75 ∆l3 -10
-20
5 10 15 20 25 30 t 50 -30 ∆R2
-0.5 25
t
-40
∆R3
10 15 ∆
20l1 25 30
-50
-1 5 -60
Fig. 6.4.5. The preference for living in the large region is increased
1
10 ∆ N1 10 ∆F1
0.5
∆k j = 0 ∆F
t t
5 10 15 20 25 30 t 5 10 15 20 25 30 5 10 15 20 25 30
-0.5 -10 -10
∆ N 2 = ∆N 3 ∆F2 = ∆F3
-1 -20 -20
1
10 ∆G1 ∆B1 ∆B t 0.5
0.4
∆B1' ≥ ∆B '
5 ∆
10G 15 20 25 30
t -1
5 10 15 20
∆B3
25 30 0.3
0.2
-10 ∆B2 0.1
∆G2 = ∆G3 -2 ∆B53' ≥
10 ∆15
B2' 20 25 30
t
-20 -0.1
1
0.5
20 ∆l2 = ∆l3 10 ∆R1
10
t t
5 10∆c
15j =
20 025 30 t 5 10 15 20 25 30
-0.5 5 10 15 20 25 30 -10
-10 ∆R2 = ∆R3
-1 ∆ l1 -20
This section examines how changes in the regions’ productivities affect the
national economy. First, we examine effects of a rise in the CR’s produc-
tivity, specified as follows: A1 = 1.5 ⇒ 1.7 . The effects on the capital in-
tensities, k j , per-capita output levels, f j , and wage rates, w j , are given
as follows
224 6 Growth of Small Open-Economies with Capital Accumulation
The capital intensity, per-capita output level, and wage rate of the CR
are increased and the corresponding variables in the IR and HR are not af-
fected. The simulation results for the time-dependent variables are plotted
in Fig. 6.4.8. Figure 6.4.8a shows that the wealth of the households in the
CR is increased and the variables in the IR and HR are not affected. From
Fig. 6.4.8b and 8c, both the CR’s population and output level rise. The
populations and output levels in the other two regions are reduced as some
people from these regions immigrate to the CR. The net effect on the na-
tional output is positive. The trade balance is worsened initially but soon
improved. The lot size in region 1 falls and the land rent rises. The lot
sizes in the other two regions rise and their land rents fall.
20 40 ∆F1
15
∆k1 ∆ N1
30t ∆F
20
10 5 10 15 20 25
-20 5 10 15 20 25 30 t
5 -20
∆ k 2 = ∆k 3 = 0 -40
∆N 2 = ∆ N 3 -40 ∆F2 = ∆F3
5 10 15 20 25 30t
~ (t )
(a) ∆a j (b) ∆N j (t ) (c) ∆F (t ) and ∆F j (t )
∆G1 2
40
5 ∆B 1 ∆B1' ≥ ∆B '
20 ∆B1 ∆B3
∆G t 5 10 15 20 25 30t 5 10 15 20 25 30 t
-20
5 10 15 20 25 30 -5 ∆B2 -1 ∆B3' ≥ ∆B2'
-2
-40
∆G2 = ∆G3 -10
-3
120 40
15 ∆c1 100 20
∆R1
80
10 60 ∆l2 = ∆l3 5 10 15 20 25 30
t
40 -20
5 20
t -40
∆c10
2 = 15
∆c20
3 t -20 5 10 15 20 25 30 ∆R2 = ∆R3
5 25 30
∆ l1
(g) ∆c j (t ) (h) ∆l j (t ) (l) ∆R j (t )
As in the previous case, only the variables in the HR are affected. Al-
though the effects to similar to those in the previous case, it should be
noted that the national output level is reduced in the long term. As the
HR’s productivity is increased, its wage rate is increased and the region
becomes more attractive. People immigrate to the IR from the CR and IR.
As the HR’s productivity after the change, A3 = 1.3 , is still lower than the
CR’s productivity, A1 = 1.5 , the net result of the reallocation of the popu-
lation reduces the national output level.
40 600 ∆F3 10 ∆F
30 ∆k3 500
t
20
400
300 ∆N 3 -10
5 10 15 20 25 30
200
10 100 -20
∆k1 = ∆k2 = 0 t 5 10
∆15N120= 25
∆N30
2 t -30 ∆F1 = ∆F2
5 10 15 20 25 30
~ (t )
(a) ∆a j (b) ∆N j (t ) and ∆F3 (t ) (c) ∆F (t ), ∆F1 (t ) and ∆F2 (t )
600 5 4
500 2.5 ∆B ∆B3 t
400 ∆G3 5 10 15 20 25 30
3
300 -2.5
-5 ∆B2 2
200
100
-7.5 ∆B1 1
∆B ' ∆B3'
∆G -10
t
= ∆25G230 t
5 10 ∆15 -12.5
G1 20 ∆B52' 10∆B15' 20 25 30
40 40 600
∆c3 20 ∆ l1 = ∆ l 2 500
30
20 -20 5 10 15 20 25 30
400
300
∆R3
-40 200
10
∆c1 = ∆c2 = 0 -60 100
∆R1 = ∆R2 t
5 10 15 20 25 30
t -80 ∆l3 t 5 10 15 20 25 30
6.4.7 Conclusions
44 See, Zhang (2005a), for various sources of knowledge creation, diffusion and
45 See, for instance, Andersson and Forslid (2003), Baldwin and Krugman (2004),
Bayindir-Upmann and Ziad (2005), and Borck and Pflüger (2006).
46 This is section is referred to Zhang (2005a: Chap. 2). The discussion on the re-
lationship between the preference structure and utility function is actually based on
Barten and Böhm (1982).
228 6 Growth of Small Open-Economies with Capital Accumulation
Axiom 1 (Reflexibility)
For all x ∈ X , x f x , i.e., any bundle is as good as itself.
Axiom 2 (Transitivity)
For any three bundles, x , y , z in X such that x f y and y f z it is
true that x f z .
Axiom 3 (Completeness)
For any two bundles x and y in X , x f y or y f z .
Axiom 4 (Continuity)
For every x ∈ X the upper contour set {y ∈ X y f x} and the lower con-
tour set { y ∈ X | x f y} are closed relative to X .
Definition 6.5.1
Let X denote a set and f t a binary relation on X at time t . Then a func-
tion u from X into real R is a representation of f , i.e., a utility function
for the preference relation f , if, for any two points x and y,
ut ( x) ≥ ut ( y ) iff x f t y at point of time t .
It seems that Pareto was the first to recognize that arbitrary increasing
transformation of a given function would result in identical maximization
of a consumer. From the above definition we see that for any utility func-
tion ut and any increasing transformation f : R → R the function
vt = f o ut is also a utility function for the same preference relation f .
The following theorem is referred to Debreu (1959) or Rader (1963).
Theorem 6.5.1
Let X denote a topological space with a countable base of open sets and
f a continuous preference order defined on X , i.e., a preference relation
that satisfies Axioms 1-4. Then there exists a continuous function u .
The above theorem shows that under certain conditions the concepts of
utility and of the underlying preferences may be used interchangeably to
determine demand at any point of time.
Appendix
47 It should be noted that Galor also examines the case when there are tariffs.
230 6 Growth of Small Open-Economies with Capital Accumulation
where r (t ) and w(t ) are the prevailing wage and the interest rates, respec-
tively at t .
Individuals are identical in the system over time and each individual
lives only two periods. In the first period individuals work and earn w(t )
and in the second they are retired. Individuals born at t are characterized
by their intertemporal utility function u (ct (t ), ct (t + 1)), where ct (t ) is the
consumption of period t . Assume that u is twice continuously differenti-
able and strictly quasi-concave, defined over the consumption set R+2 . It is
also required Du >> 0 , ∀ c ∈ R+2+ , and for ct (t ), ct (t + 1) > 0 ,
1 + r (t + 1) S (t ) (A.6.1.2)
ct (t + 1) = .
p(t + 1)
We have thus described the model. Under certain conditions the dy-
namic system has a unique (locally) stable equilibrium. We will not illus-
trate the dynamic analysis of the discrete system as almost all the dynamic
models in this book are in continuous time.
Many empirical studies have identified the following stylized facts about
current experiences (Ikeda and Gombi, 1998): (i) adverse productivity
shocks improve the current account; (ii) savings and investment display a
positive correction in the short- and long-run; and (iii) temporary increases
in fiscal spending deteriorate the current account whereas permanent ones
exert at most weaker negative effects on it. To explain these findings,
much attention in theoretical literature has been paid to the intertemporal
aspects of savings, investment, and the current account (Sen, 1994;
Obstfeld and Rogoff, 1995). This section introduces a small country model
proposed by Ikeda and Gombi (1998) to analyze the equilibrium dynamics
232 6 Growth of Small Open-Economies with Capital Accumulation
of savings, investment and the current account and to explain the stylized
facts just mentioned.
The model is constructed for a small open economy populated with infi-
nitely lived identical agents. There is a composite traded good that can be
used for consumption and investment. The good is taken as numeraire.
Given the market wage rate, w(t ), households supply one unity of labor at
each point of time t and hold non-human wealth, a(t ), in the form of
bonds, b(t ), and equities. Bonds can be either purchased or issued freely at
a constant interest rate, r , in the international market. To describe habit
formation of households, introduce z (t ) the time- t consumption habit, i.e.,
the average of past consumption rates defined by
−∞
or equivalently
z& (t ) = α (c(t ) − z (t )), (A.6.2.1)
where α is the discount rate for past consumption rates, and c(t ) is the
consumption rate. The consumers’ lifetime utility is specified as
∞
and the non-Ponzi game condition. Together with the transversality condi-
tions for λ (t ) and ξ (t ), the optimal conditions are given by
u z (c, z ) = λ (t ) − αξ (t ),
ξ&(t ) = (θ + α )ξ (t ) − u (c, z ),
z
Appendix 233
λ& (t ) = (θ − r )λ (t ), (A.6.2.3)
I I
2
where q(t ) is the shadow price of investment. From the second equation,
we solve
234 6 Growth of Small Open-Economies with Capital Accumulation
[
q& (t ) = (r + τ )q(t ) − AFK (K ,1) + η 2φ ' (η ) . ] (A.6.2.4)
Governments
The government’s budget is assumed to be balanced at any point of
time, i.e.
g (t ) = x(t ) + τV (t ),
where V (t ) is equities at time t .
ξ&(t ) = (θ + α )ξ (t ) − u z (c, z ).
It can be shown that the dynamic system exhibits saddle point stability.
We now prove Lemma 6.4.1. First, we note that k j , w j and f j (k j ) are de-
termined as functions of r * , which is fixed in the international market.
Hence, we treat them as constants in the dynamic analysis. Substituting
Eqs. (6.4.8), c j = ξyˆ j and s j = λyˆ j in Eqs. (6.4.9) and l j = L j / N j into
the utility functions, we have
U j = ρ ξ 0 + λ0θ j f ja Lηjξ ξ λλ N aj +b −η yˆ ξj + λ , j = 1, L , J .
N j (t )
n j (t ) ≡ .
N1 (t )
From the population constrain in (6.4.15), we have
N
N1 = .
∑
J
1+ j =2
nj
From this equation and Eqs. (A.6.3.1), we determine the population dis-
tribution as functions of ŷ j as follows
g j yˆ ηj N
Nj = , j = 1, ... , J ,
∑
J
g yˆ η
j =1 j j
yˆ j = (1 + r * )a~ j + w j , j = 1, L, J . (A.6.3.2)
tures over time with aggregate disposable income and other variables. The
traditional Keynesian consumption function posits that consumption is de-
termined by current disposable income, i.e.
C (t ) = a + bY (t ), a > 0 , 0 < b < 1,
where a and b are constant, C (t ) is real consumption at time t , and Y (t )
is real disposable income (which is the same as the current income in our
model), which equals GNP minus taxes. It can be seen that if we swap the
real disposable income in the Keynesian model with the disposable per-
sonal income in our model in Sect. 6.1,
The parameter, b , is the marginal propensity to consume, which meas-
ures the increase in consumption in association with per unit increase in
disposable income. The intercept, a , measures consumption at a zero level
of disposable income.
Consumer spending
450 line where income = spending
consumption
S − K λY − δK K
s (t ) = APS ≡ = =λ −ξ ,
Y Y Y
where we use ξ + λ =1. It should be noted that according to the definition
of the APS
S (t ) − K (t ) K& (t )
s (t ) = APS ≡ = .
Y (t ) Y (t )
The APC in the OSG model rise as wealth increases or as current in-
come declines; The APS in the OSG model rise as wealth falls or as cur-
238 6 Growth of Small Open-Economies with Capital Accumulation
The Solow growth model, often also called the neoclassical growth model,
is a work horse of economic growth theory. Most neoclassical models are
extensions and generalizations of the pioneering works of Solow and Swan
in 1956.51 The behavior of the production sector is the same as in the OSG
model in Sect. 6.1.52 Nevertheless, the Solow model assumes that the
agents regularly set aside some fairly predictable portion ŝ of its output
for the purpose of capital accumulation; hence
Friedman (1957) and possible relations between the permanent income hypothesis
and the OSG approach.
51 Solow (1956) and Swan (1956). The Solow model is often called the Solow-
traditional approach (e.g., Burmeister and Dobell, 1970; Azariadis, 1993; and
Zhang, 1999).
Appendix 239
k&(t ) = sˆf (k (t )) − (n + δ k )k (t ).
We see that the differential equation for per-worker-capital accumula-
tion in the Solow model is mathematically identical to the capital accumu-
lation equation in the OSG model defined by Eq. (1.1.12) in Sect. 6.1
k&(t ) = λf (k (t )) − (ξ + n )k (t ),
if we specify U = c ξ s λ . The Solow model and the OSG model have the
same dynamic properties – the system has a unique stable equilibrium. But
the OSG model holds that the saving rate is time-dependent; the Solow
model predetermines the saving rate.
We now show that under certain circumstances the OSG model can ex-
plain what the Solow model forecasts. The OSG model endogenously de-
termines saving and consumption. For simplicity, we let δ k = 0 . The
OSG’s capital accumulation is given
K& (t ) = λF (t ) − ξK (t ). (A.6.5.1)
K& (t ) = λ (t )F (t ) − (ξ (t ) + λ (t )δ k )K (t ) =
λ (t )(F (t ) + δK (t )) − K (t ) = sˆF (t ) − δ k K (t ).
We see that under Eq. (A.6.5.7) the evolution of capital in the OSG model
is identical to that in the Solow model.
Theorem A.6.5.1
Let the production sectors be identical in the OSG model and the Solow
model. If the saving rate, ŝ, in the Solow model and the propensity to save
λ (t ) in the OSG model satisfy Eq. (A.6.5.8), then the OSG model is identi-
cal to the Solow model in terms of the saving rate (out of current income), the
consumption rate, the interest rate, the wage rate, output, income, consump-
tion, and saving.
7 One-Sector Global Growth Models with Capital
Accumulation
As Findlay (1984) pointed out, one topic that was almost entirely absent
from the pure theory of international trade was any consideration of the
connection between economic growth and international trade in classical
literature of economic theory. Almost all the trade models developed be-
fore the 1960s are static in the sense that the supplies of factors of produc-
tion are given and do not vary over time; the classical Ricardian theory of
comparative advantage and the Heckscher-Ohlin theory are static since la-
bor and capital stocks (or land) are assumed to be given and constant over
time. Trade models with capital movements are originated by MacDougall
(1960) and Kemp (1961), even though these models were limited to static
and one-commodity frameworks. A dynamic model, which takes account
of accumulating capital stocks and of growing population within the Heck-
scher-Ohlin type of model is initially developed by Oniki and Uzawa and
others, in terms of the two-country, two-good, two-factor model of trade.
The Oniki-Uzawa model is developed within the framework of neoclassi-
cal growth theory. The model is primarily concerned with the process of
world capital accumulation and distribution with demands and supplies.
Eaton (1987) proposed a dynamic two-sector, three-factors model of inter-
national trade. The dynamic specification of the model is based on
Samuelson’s overlapping generations model. The dynamic model at each
point of time t proposed by Eaton is identical to the three-factor, two-
commodity model examined in a static context by Jones, Samuelson and
Mussa.1 The model tries to extend the Heckscher-Ohlin theory to include
endowments of factor as endogenous variables. In this model land and
capital serve not only as factors of production but also as assets which in-
dividuals use to transfer income from working periods to retirement. The
model shows that changes in the terms of trade and in the endowments of
fixed factors do not necessarily have the same effects on factor prices and
on the composition of output as they do in a static framework. Some re-
sults obtained from the specific-factors model about the relationships be-
1 See, for instance, Jones (1971), Samuelson (1971) and Mussa (1974).
242 7 One-Sector Global Growth Models with Capital Accumulation
tween commodity prices and factor prices, factor endowments and factor
rewards, and factor endowments and the pattern of production are not held
in the dynamic model. For instance, a permanent increase in the relative
price of one commodity does not necessarily lower the steady-state income
of the factor specific to the industry producing the other commodity.
Obstfeld examines the saving behavior of a small economy facing a certain
world real interest rate.2 Obstfeld proposes a dynamic Heckscher-Ohlin
model with internationally mobile capital and overlapping generations of
infinitely-lived agents. The model focuses on the effects of government
debt and spending shocks. Devereux and Shi (1991) develop a trade model
which includes intertemporal consumption-saving decisions with the use
of recursive preferences.3 These preferences make it possible to analyze
heterogeneity in a representative-agent infinite horizon model with well-
defined steady states. The key factors driving the steady state are the con-
vergence of national rates of time preference with one another and the
monotonical relationship between consumption and the real interest rate at
the steady state. This implies that each country’s share of total world out-
put depends only on its degree of impatience and not on country-specific
factors. From this model it concludes that the more patient country has a
higher steady-state consumption level and will be a steady-state external
creditor.
We analyze trade issues within the framework of a simple international
macroeconomic growth model with perfect capital mobility. Most aspects
of production sectors in our model are similar to the neoclassical one-
sector growth model. It is assumed that there is only one (durable) good in
the global economy under consideration. Households own assets of the
economy and distribute their incomes to consume and save. Our model, as
far as trade and global growth are concerned, is influenced by the neoclas-
sical trade theory with capital accumulation. Section 7.1 discusses the na-
ture of the economic relations between the advanced and less developed
regions of the world economy, or the North and South as it has become
customary to call refer to them. The formal framework, initiated by
2 Obstfeld (1981). See also Sect. 2.10 for a small open economy described within
Baldwin, 1992, 1999; Baldwin and Krugman, 2004; and Baldwin and Martin,
2004). It should be remarked that in the early 1990s, Zhang (for instance, 1991a,
1991b) proposed interregional and interregional models with both capital and
knowledge, while in the new economic geography there are dynamic models ei-
ther with capital accumulation or technological change, but not both, with micro
behavioral foundation.
7.1 A Growth Model with Trade Between North and South 243
This section discusses the nature of the economic relations between the
advanced and less developed regions of the world economy, or the North
and South as it has become customary to call refer to them. It is often ar-
gued that the movement of the terms of trade between two regions is a key
index of the distribution of the benefits from the international division of
labor and the development prospects of the South. We now introduce a
formal framework, set up by Findlay (1980), within which diverse argu-
ments are sorted out and assessed. The model is a synthesis of Solow-
Swan’s neoclassical growth model (for the North), Lewis’s dual-economic
model (for the South), and Johnson’s trade model as a linkage between the
North and the South (Lewis, 1954; Johnson, 1967b).
First, we consider the North. Assume that it produces a single commod-
ity, called manufactures, which can be used either for consumption or in-
vestment. A constant fraction of output is saved and invested. Markets are
perfectly competitive and labor and capital are always fully employed. The
population grows at a constant rate and technology progresses also at a
fixed rate in the labor-augmenting type. The portion of output in the North
which is not saved is spent either on manufactures or on another homoge-
nous commodity, called primary products, produced in the South. Primary
products constitute the sole output of the South. The production of primary
products uses labor and capital as inputs. Capital consists of a stock of
manufactures. Labor is in perfectly elastic supply from a ‘hinterland’ out-
side the model at a fixed wage rate in terms of primary products. Perfec-
tion competition leads to the point at which marginal productivity of labor
244 7 One-Sector Global Growth Models with Capital Accumulation
is equal to the fixed real wage. Total employment at any instant is deter-
mined by the quantity of capital available. It is assumed that a constant
fraction of profits are saved and all wages are consumed. Consumption ex-
penditure is spent on manufactures and primary products with the propor-
tions depending on relative prices. Assume that there is no lending so that
trade is always balanced.
We now describe the basic structure of the model. The constant return-
to-scale production function for primary products and the profit-
maximization condition in the South are
f S = f S (k S ), f S (k S ) − f S ' (k S )k S = w , f S ' (k S ) > 0 , f S " (k S ) < 0 ,
where f S stands for output per worker of primary products in the South,
k S capital-labor ratio, and w fixed wage. The above equations uniquely
determine k S as a function of w . Since capital consists of a stock of
manufactures and output of a flow of primary products, the rate of profit in
the South is
ρ = θf S ' (k S ),
where θ is the terms of trade (manufactures per unit of primary products)
to be determined. The common growth rate of total capital, output, and
employment in the South is g = σρ , where σ is constant fraction of
profit saved in the South. At steady-state equilibrium the growth rates of
the North and the South are equal. As the growth rate of the North is fixed
at n , from g = σρ and ρ = θf S ' (k S ) the condition g = n yields
n
θ= .
σf S ' (k S )
The production function, YN , and population, N N , for the North are
YN = f N (k N )N N , N N = N 0 e nt .
Assume that the import demand function of the North is
∂I N (7.1.1)
I N = m[θ , (1 − s ) f N (k N )]N N , < 0,
∂θ
where I N is total imports in the North, s is constant fraction of income
saved in the North, and m is per capita imports of the North. We assume
that the elasticity of m with respect to per capita consumption (1 − s ) f N is
equal to unity. The import demand function for the South is
7.2 A Two-Country Trade Model with Capital Accumulation 245
1 (7.1.2)
I S = θσf S ' k S + µ , w + (1 − σ ) f S ' k S N S ,
θ
where I S is total imports in the South, the expression in brackets is the
sum of per capita imports for investment and consumption, respectively.
Per capita import demand for consumption purposes is µ , with
∂µ / ∂ (1 / θ ) < 0 and the elasticity with respect to per capita consumption,
w + (1 − σ ) f S ' k S , is equal to unity. Southern employment is determined
by k S N S = K S . In the absence of international capital movements the
trade balance must be zero, θI N = I S . Introduce λ ≡ N S / N N . From
θI N = I S and Eqs. (7.1.1) and (7.1.2), we solve
λµ
θ= .
m − λσf S ' k S
policies upon trade patterns within this framework. For instance, Frenkel
and Razin (1987) used a two-country and two-period model to analyze the
effects of various fiscal policies, even though their model ignores capital
accumulation. In Ikeda and Ono (1992), an optimal multi-country model
was constructed to analyze dynamic trade patterns, even though the model
ignores capital growth by assuming a constant capital supply. This section
makes another contribution to the literature by proposing a dynamic trade
model with capital growth under the assumption that the households make
decisions on savings on the basis of their attitudes towards wealth at each
point of time. That is, rather than using the concept of the subjective dis-
count rate, we solve the problem of endogenous savings by treating wealth
similarly to a consumption good in household decision making. This
greatly reduces difficulties involved in the dynamic analysis of traditional
two-country trade models with endogenous capital accumulation.
k&N = 0
λ& = 0
kN
F1 (t ) = A1 (K1 (t ) + E (t )) 1 N1β1 , F2 (t ) = A2 (K 2 (t ) − E (t )) 2 N 2β 2 ,
α α
4 This section is based on Zhang (2006a: Sect. 8.3). Zhang extends the model to
any number of countries with any number of types of households. In the next sec-
tion, we will represent a trade model of multiple economies with endogenous la-
bor supply and sexual division of labor.
248 7 One-Sector Global Growth Models with Capital Accumulation
r + δ k = α1 A1 (K1 (t ) + E (t )) N1β1 = α 2 A2 (K 2 (t ) − E (t ))
− β1 −β2
N 2β 2 ,
w1 (t ) = β1 A1 (K1 (t ) + E (t )) 1 N1−α1 ,
α
w2 (t ) = β 2 A2 (K 2 (t ) − E (t )) 2 N 2−α 2 , (7.2.1)
α
from the interest payment, rk j , and the wage payment, w j . The disposable
income is given by
yˆ j (t ) = y j (t ) + k j (t ). (7.2.3)
c j (t ) = ξ j yˆ j (t ), s j (t ) = λ j yˆ j (t ). (7.2.5)
k& j (t ) = s j (t ) − k j (t ). (7.2.6)
2
(7.2.7)
K (t ) = ∑ k j (t )N j .
j =1
The world production is equal to the world consumption and world net
saving. That is
2
C (t ) − S (t ) − K (t ) + ∑δ kj K j (t ) = F (t ),
j =1
where
2 2 2
C (t ) ≡ ∑ c j (t )N j , S (t ) ≡ ∑ s j (t )N j , F (t ) ≡ ∑ F j (t ).
j =1 j =1 j =1
We have thus built the model which explains the endogenous accumula-
tion of capital and the international distribution of capital in the world
economy in which the domestic markets of each country are perfectly
competitive, international product and capital markets are freely mobile
and labor is internationally immobile. We now examine the properties of
the system.
From the condition that the world economy has the equal interest rate
throughout, we get
α1 F1 α 2 F2
= .
K1 + E K2 − E
From this equation and Eqs. (7.2.1), we obtain
K 2 − E = υ ( K 1 + E )θ , (7.2.8)
in which
1/ β 2
α N2 β
υ ≡ 2 , θ ≡ 1 < 1.
α1 β2
θ
N1
We now show that for any positive K > 0, the equation, Φ (x ) = 0 , has
a unique positive solution.
The function, Φ , has the following properties
dΦ
Φ(0) < 0, Φ(K ) > 0, > 0,
dx
for all x. This implies that Eq. (7.2.9) has a unique positive solution
x = Λ ( K ) > 0.
For instance, in the case of θ = 1, we have
K
Λ( K ) = .
1+υ
In the case of θ = 1 / 2, we have
2
ν 2
1/ 2
υ
x = + K − .
4 2
E = Λ ( K ) − K1 . (7.2.10)
Substituting Eq. (7.2.10) and r in Eqs. (7.2.1) into Eqs. (7.2.2) yields
Y j ( K1 , K 2 ) = g j ( K1 , K 2 ), j = 1, 2, (7.2.11)
where Y j = y j N j and
α 1 K1 + β1Λ
g1 ( K 1 , K 2 ) ≡ N1β1 − δ k K1 ,
Λβ1
α 2 K2 + β2 K − β2Λ
g 2 ( K1 , K 2 ) ≡ N 2β1 − δ k K 2 .
( K − Λ) β 2
From Eqs. (7.2.6), we have
K& j = λ jY j − ξ j K j , j = 1, 2. (7.2.12)
At equilibrium, we have
7.2 A Two-Country Trade Model with Capital Accumulation 251
λ jY j = ξ j K j , j = 1, 2. (7.2.13)
β1 β 2υΛθ −1 (7.2.17)
Λ1 ≡ max{Λ | = 1 + υΛθ −1 , = 1 + υΛθ −1 , Λ > Λ 0 }.
φ1 (Λ ) φ2 (Λ )
It is easy to show the existence of such a positive Λ1 . Adding the two
equations in Eqs. (7.2.14) yields
β1 β 2υΛθ −1 (7.2.18)
Φ * (Λ) ≡ + − 1 − υΛθ −1 = 0,
φ1 (Λ ) φ2 (Λ)
Lemma 7.2.1
The dynamic system has at least one equilibrium point. In the case of
θ = 1, the system has a unique solution. In the case of θ < 1, if Λ1 ≤ Λ 2 ,
where Λ 2 is the solution of 1 − θ = 1 / φ2 (Λ ), the system has a unique equi-
librium point.5
We now examine the trade patterns when the parameters are taken on
some special values. In this section, we assume N1 = N 2 .
δ /λ ρ δ
C1 − C 2 = K1 − 2 2 2 K 2 1 − δ k ( K1 − K 2 ) < 0 ,
δ 1 / λ1 ρ1 λ1 ρ1
where we use
δ 2 / λ2 ρ 2 δ1
< 1, > δk .
δ 1 / λ1 ρ1 λ1 ρ1
Summarizing the above discussion, we have the following corollary.
Corollary 7.2.1
Let θ = 1, N1 = N 2 and ξ1 / λ1 > ξ 2 / λ2 . Then, the system has a unique
equilibrium point at which E > 0, K1 < K 2 , S1 < S 2 , F1 = F2 , w1 = w2 ,
Y1 < Y2 and C1 < C 2 .
β1 β 2υΛθ −1 α1 β 2υΛθ −1 β1
1 + υΛθ −1 = + = 1 +
φ1 (Λ) φ2 (Λ) α 2 β1φ2 (Λ ) φ1 (Λ )
β1 (7.2.20)
> (1 + υΛθ −1 ) .
φ1 (Λ )
From (7.2.20), we directly have
φ1 (Λ) > β1 .
We thus have K1 / Λ > 1, i.e., E < 0. Country 1’s capital is employed by
country 2 .
Corollary 7.2.2
Let θ < 1 and ξ1 / λ1 = ξ 2 / λ2 . Then, the system has a unique equilibrium
point at which E > 0.
This section extends the model in Sect. 7.2, introducing a few new features
to the analytical framework. We construct a dynamic one-commodity and
multiple-country trade model to examine interdependence between trade
and global growth with sexual division of labor. Over the years there have
been a number of attempts to modify neoclassical consumer theory to deal
with economic issues about endogenous labor supply, family structure,
working hours and the valuation of traveling time with endogenous sexual
division of labor and consumption.6 It has become apparent that gender is
an important macroeconomic variable and that gender relations can affect
national growth and international economic trade. Nevertheless, one might
argue that the contemporary economics has failed to develop analytical
frameworks to properly introduce sexual division of labor into interna-
tional trade models with capital accumulation. Some empirical studies
have been conducted on comparing sexual division of labor and gender
wage gaps among countries.7 For instance, in a study on international
comparison of the gender pay gap in 10 industrialized economies, Blau
and Kahn (1996) examined the role of education and labor skills in influ-
encing the gender gap. Among other important conclusions, they conclude,
for instance, that the US gender gap is higher than in most other countries
like Sweden and Australia mainly because the larger penalty in the US for
those with low skill levels or employed in low-wage sectors. In another
study on gender inequality and economic growth, Seiguido (2000) exam-
ines empirically the determinants of economic growth for a set of semi-
industrialized export economies. The paper shows that gender inequality
which contributes to women’s relatively lower wages was a stimulus to
growth via the effects on exports during 1975-95. Although some empiri-
cal studies have considered gender as an important explanatory variable as
the determinants of economic growth, it may be argued that theoretical re-
search on international trade is seldom concerned with economic growth
and trade with gender. The research presented here is an effort to fill this
lacuna. This section is organized as follows. Section 7.3.1 defines the
multi-country model with endogenous labor supply, sexual division of la-
6 For instance, Becker (1965, 1976, 1981), Chiappori (1988, 1992a, 1992b, 1997),
Browning and Chiappori (1998), Gomme et al. (2001), Campbell and Ludvigson
(2001), Galor and Weil (2000), and Tassel (2004).
7 See, for instance, Becker (1985), Becker et al. (1990), Becker and Tomes
(1986), O’Neill and Polachek (1993), McCall (1998), Lam (1988), Ertürk and Dar-
ity (2000), Persson and Jonung (1997, 1998), and Seiguido (2000).
256 7 One-Sector Global Growth Models with Capital Accumulation
bor, and capital accumulation. Section 7.3.2 shows that the dynamics of
the world economy with J countries can be described by J -dimensional
differential equations. Section 7.3.3 simulates the motion of the 3-country
world economy. Section 7.3.4 examines the effects of changes in different
countries’ population, productivity, propensities to save and to use leisure
time, and human capital of men and women upon the world economic dy-
namics. Section 7.3.5 concludes the section. It should be remarked that as
we provide a computational procedure for any number of economies and
the production functions in the procedure are in general forms, we can
simulate the world economy with any number of economies with any form
of production functions. It is possible to extend the model in different di-
rections. We may consider that each economy has multiple sectors. There
are heterogeneous types of households in each country. It is straightfor-
ward to develop the model in discrete time. We may analyze behavior of
the model with other forms of production or utility functions.
Let prices be measured in terms of the commodity and the price of the
commodity be unity. We denote interest rates by rj (t ) in the j th country.
In the free trade system, the interest rate is identical throughout the world
economy, i.e., r (t ) = r j (t ). We introduce the following variables:
N jm (t ) = h jmT jm (t )Nˆ j , N j (t ) = N j1 (t ) + N j 2 (t ),
j = 1, L , J , m = 1, 2 ,
where h jm are human capital index of country j ’s sex m . For simplicity
of analysis, we assume that the labor supply of each sex is linearly related
to its working time. Although it is reasonable to assume that the labor sup-
ply may exhibit certain nonlinear relationship with working time (for in-
stance, over-working may reduce productivity per unity of time), we are
only concerned with the above forms. The human capital levels h jm are as-
sumed to be constant.
Behavior of producers
First, we describe behavior of the production sections. Production sec-
tors use capital and labor. Production sectors sell their product to house-
holds or to other sectors and households sell their labor and assets to pro-
duction sectors. Factor markets work well; factors are inelastically
supplied and the available factors are fully utilized at every moment. Sav-
ing is undertaken only by households, which implies that all earnings of
firms are distributed in the form of payments to factors of production. We
omit the possibility of hoarding of output in the form of non-productive
inventories held by households. All savings volunteered by households are
absorbed by firms. We require savings and investment to be equal at any
point of time. We use production functions to describe the physical facts of
258 7 One-Sector Global Growth Models with Capital Accumulation
a given technology. We assume that there are only two productive factors,
capital, K j (t ), and labor, N j (t ), at each point of time t . The production
functions are given by
F j (K j (t ), N j (t )), j = 1, L, J ,
Markets are competitive; thus labor and capital earn their marginal prod-
ucts, and firms earn zero profits. The rate of interest, r (t ), and wage rates,
w j (t ), are determined by markets. Hence, for any individual firm r (t ) and
w jm (t ) are given at each point of time. The production sector chooses the
two variables, K j (t ) and N j (t ), to maximize its profit. The marginal con-
ditions are given by
r + δ kj = f j' (k j ), w jm (t ) = h jm w j (t ), (7.3.1)
w j (t ) ≡ f j (k j ) − k j f j' (k j ).
Behavior of consumers
Let kˆ j (t ) stand for the per-family wealth in country j . Country j ’s
per-family current income, y j (t ), from the interest payment, r (t )kˆ j (t ), and
the wage payment, w j1 (t )T j1 (t ) + w j 2 (t )T j 2 (t ), is given by
Let T0 denote the total available time. The time constraint requires that
the amounts of time allocated to each specific use add up to the time avail-
able
T jm (t ) + Tˆjm (t ) = T0 , j = 1, L, J , m = 1, 2 . (7.3.5)
where h j ≡ h j1 + h j 2 .
At each point of time, households decide the four variables subject to
the disposable income. We assume that utility level U j (t ) is dependent on
the leisure times, Tˆj1 (t ) and Tˆj 2 (t ), the consumption level of commodity,
c j (t ), and the savings, s j (t ), as follows
U j (t ) = Tˆj1 j1 (t )Tˆj 2 j 2 (t )c j j (t )s j j (t ),
σ σ ξ λ
σ j1 , σ j 2 , ξ j , λ j > 0 , σ j1 + σ j 2 + ξ j + λ j = 1,
(7.3.7)
where σ j1 , σ j 2 , ξ j and λ j are respectively country j ’s propensities to
use the husband’s leisure time, to use the wife’s leisure time, to consume
goods and services, and to hold wealth. Maximizing U j subject to the
budget constraints (7.3.6) yields
w j1 (t )Tˆj1 (t ) = σ j1 yˆ j (t ), w j 2 (t )Tˆj 2 (t ) = σ j 2 yˆ j (t ), (7.3.8)
c j (t ) = ξ j yˆ j (t ), s j (t ) = λ j yˆ j (t ).
The ratio of the husband and the wife’s leisure time (or home production
time) is positively related to the wife’s level of human capital and the fam-
ily’s propensity to use the husband’s leisure time and negatively related to
the husband’s level of human capital and the family’s propensity to use the
wife’s leisure time. We also see that that the ratio of the husband and the
wife’s leisure time is constant. Evidently, this is due to the specified Cobb-
Douglas form, fixed human capital, and fixed preference parameters. To
explain endogenous changes of time distribution, we may introduce
mechanisms for endogenous changes of human capital or preferences.
According to the definitions of s j (t ), the per-family’s wealth accumula-
tion in country j is given by
& (7.3.9)
kˆ j (t ) = s j (t ) − kˆ j (t ), j = 1, L, J .
where
J J J
C (t ) ≡ ∑ c j (t )Nˆ j , S (t ) ≡ ∑ s j (t )Nˆ j , F (t ) ≡ ∑ F j (t ) .
j =1 j =1 j =1
We have thus built the model which explains the endogenous capital ac-
cumulation and sexual division of labor, the international distribution of
capital in the world economy in which the domestic markets of each coun-
try are perfectly competitive, international product and capital markets are
freely mobile and labor is internationally immobile.
We now examine trade balances among countries. First, we calculate
( ) ( ) ( )
F j − c j + s j − k j Nˆ j − δ kj K j = r K j − kˆ j Nˆ j = r N j k j − kˆ j Nˆ j ,
where we use
7.3 A Multi-Country Growth Model with Labor Supply and Capital 261
2
c j + s j = rkˆ j + ∑ w jmT jm + kˆ j ,
m =1
F j = (r + δ kj )K j +
2
∑w
m =1
jm T jm Nˆ j .
That is
( ) (
F j = c j + s j − kˆ j Nˆ j + δ kj K j + r k j N j − kˆ j Nˆ j . )
The national output is used for the consumption ( c j Nˆ j ), the net saving
( )
( s j − kˆ j Nˆ j ), the payment for the depreciation of capital employed by the
economy ( δ kj K j ), and the payment for the net foreign capital employed by
( )
the economy ( r k j N j − kˆ j Nˆ j ). If k j N j − kˆ j Nˆ j > (<) 0 , we say that
country j is in trade deficit (trade surplus). If k j N j − kˆ j Nˆ j = 0 , country
j is in trade balance. We introduce variables to measure trade balances
( )
E j (t ) ≡ kˆ j Nˆ j − k j N j , Eˆ j (t ) ≡ kˆ j Nˆ j − k j N j r . (7.3.12)
This section shows that the dynamics of the world economy can be ex-
pressed as J − dimensional differential equations. First, from Eqs. (7.3.1)
we obtain
f j' (k j ) = f1' (k1 ) − δ j , j ≡ 2, L, J , (7.3.13)
dk j
f j" (k j ) = f1" (k1 ), j = 2 , L, J .
dk1
where
φˆ j (k1 ) ≡ f j (φ j (k1 )) − φ j (k1 ) f j' (φ j (k1 )).
( )
yˆ j (t ) = 1 + φˆ0 (k1 ) kˆ j (t ) + h jT0φˆ j (k1 ), j = 1, L, J . (7.3.17)
( )
T jm (t ) = Λ jm k1 , kˆ j ≡ σˆ jm −
(
1 + φˆ0 (k1 ) σ jm ˆ
kj ,
)
φˆ (k ) jm 1 (7.3.18)
j = 1, L, J , m = 1, 2 ,
where we use Eqs. (7.3.1) and (7.3.5) and
φˆ j1 + φˆ j 2
σˆ jm ≡ 1 − σ T .
φˆ jm
0
jm
The variables σˆ jm are constant. For gender m to work outside, we
should require σˆ jm > 0 . For illustration, let m = 2 . Then
7.3 A Multi-Country Growth Model with Labor Supply and Capital 263
h j1
σˆ j 2 = 1 − 1 + σ j 2 T0 .
h j 2
If
1 h j1
−1≤ ,
σ j2 hj2
then country j ’s women will not work outside irrespective of the family’s
economic conditions. As we are interested in sexual division of labor in the
world, we require
1 h jm '
−1> , m , m' = 1, 2 , m ≠ m' , j = 1, L, J .
σ jm h jm
This means that any gender in any country may work outside. By Eqs.
(7.3.18), we can express T (t ) as functions of kˆ (t ) and k (t ) as well.
jm j 1
∑ k (t )Nˆ ∑ h
j =1
j j
m =1
jm T jm (t ) = ∑ kˆ j (t )Nˆ j .
j =1
Insert (7.3.14) and (7.3.18) into the above equation, we solve kˆ1 (t ) as
( { }) σ k
kˆ1 (t ) = Λ k1 , kˆ ≡ 0 1 −
Λ 0 (k1 )
1
( ) ,
J 2
∑ n j kˆ j − φ j (k1 )∑ h jm Λ jm k1 , kˆ j
Λ 0 (k1 ) j = 2 m =1 (7.3.19)
{ } (
where kˆ(t ) ≡ kˆ2 (t ), L, kˆJ (t ) and )
Λ 0 (k1 ) ≡ 1 + (σ 11 + σ 12 ) 1 + φˆ0 (k1 ) ( )φˆ k(k ) ,
1
1 1
Nˆ j
σ 0 ≡ h11σˆ11 + h12σˆ12 , n j ≡ , j = 1, L , J .
Nˆ 1
{ }
per-family wealth k̂ (t ) at any point of time. By Eqs. (7.3.17)-(7.3.19), we
see that yˆ j (t ) can be expressed as functions of k̂ (t ) and k1 (t ). It is { }
straightforward to show that all the variables can be expressed as functions
{ }
of k̂ (t ) and k1 (t ). We now show that the dynamics of the world economy
can be described by J -dimensional differential equations.
First, substitute s j (t ) = λ j yˆ j (t ) in (7.3.8) and (7.3.17) into the wealth
accumulation Eqs. (7.3.9)
&
( )
kˆ1 = λ1 − 1 + λ1φˆ0 (k1 ) kˆ1 + λ1h1T0φˆ1 (k1 ),
(7.3.20)
&
1( { }) (
ˆ k , kˆ ≡ λ − 1 + λ φˆ (k ) kˆ + λ h T φˆ (k ),
kˆ j = Λ j j j 0 1 j j j 0 j 1 )
j = 2, L, J . (7.3.21)
The right-hand sides of Eqs. (7.3.20) and (7.3.21) are functions of
{k̂ (t )} and k (t ).
1
in which Λ'0 and φ j' are derivatives of the functions Λ 0 and φ j with re-
spect to k1 and
( { }) ∂Λ jm
J 2 2
Ψ k1 , kˆ ≡ σ 0 − ΛΛ'0 + ∑ φ ∑ h '
j jm Λ jm + φ j ∑ h jm n j .
∂k1
j =2 m =1 m =1
~
( { })
Λ Λ k , kˆ
k&1 = 0 1 1 +
( { })
Ψ k1 , kˆ
1
(k , {kˆ})1 − φ (k )∑ h Λ jm
J 2
Ψ (k , {kˆ})
∑ n Λˆ j j 1 j 1 jm .
∂k j
(3.3.24)
1 j =2 m =1
{ }
We see that k&1 is a function of k1 (t ) and kˆ(t ) . In summary, we obtain
the following lemma.
Lemma 7.3.1
The dynamics of the world economy is given by the J − dimensional dif-
ferential Eqs. (7.3.21) and (7.3.24) with k (t ) and kˆ (t ), j = 2, L , J , as
1 j
the variables. For any given positive values of k1 (t ) and k j (t ) at any point
of time, all the other variables are uniquely determined by the following
procedure: kˆ1 (t ) by (7.3.19) → k j (t ), j = 2, L , J j = 2
, L, J by
~
(7.3.14) → T jm (t ) by (7.3.18) → Tˆjm (t ) T jm (t ) = T0 − T jm (t ) →
f j (t ) = f j (k j ) → r (t ) and w jm (t ) by (7.3.1) → yˆ j (t ) by (7.3.17) →
c j (t ) s j (t ) N j (t ) = ∑m h jm Nˆ jT jm (t ) →
2
and by (7.3.8) →
K j (t ) = k j (t )N j (t ) → F j (t ) = N j (t ) f j (t ) .
&
An equilibrium point is given by setting k&1 = 0 and kˆ j = 0 . By Eqs.
(7.3.22) and (7.3.23), an equilibrium point is given by
(λ 1 ) ( { })
− 1 + λ1φˆ0 (k1 ) Λ k1 , kˆ + λ1h1T0φˆ1 (k1 ) = 0 , (7.3.28)
(λ j )
− 1 + λ jφˆ0 (k1 ) kˆ j + λ j h jT0φˆ j (k1 ) = 0, j = 2, L, J . (7.3.29)
1 J
1 + φ j (k1 )∑
(
2 1 + φˆ (k ) h σ ) (7.3.31)
∑
Λ 0 (k1 ) j =2
0 1
φˆjm (k1 )
jm jm
n j kˆ j .
m=1
( )
Ω(k1 ) ≡ λ1 − 1 + λ1φˆ0 (k1 ) Λ(k1 ) + λ1h1T0φˆ1 (k1 ) = 0 . (7.3.32)
rium values of the other variables are determined by following the proce-
dure in Lemma 7.3.1.
To simulate the model, we specify the parameter values as follows
A1 8 Nˆ 1 2 α 1 1 / 3 δ k 1 0.07
A2 = 4 , Nˆ 2 = 3 , α 2 = 0.3 , δ k 2 = 0.06 ,
A 1 ˆ α 0 .3 δ 0.05
3 N 3 10 3 k3
σ 21 0.13
σ 22 = 0.15 , T0 = 1.
σ 0.2
32
Country 1 has the highest level of productivity and highest propensity to
save. Its population size is smallest. Country 2 ’s level of productivity is
the second, next to country 1 ’s. Its propensity to save is higher than coun-
try 3 but lower than country 1. Country 3 has the largest population and
the lowest levels of productivity and propensity to save. Its propensity to
use leisure is the highest. For convenience, we call countries 1, 2 , and 3
respectively as developed, industrializing and developing economies. The
developing country’s man has the highest propensity to stay at home and
the men of the developed and industrialized economies have the same level
of the propensity to stay at home. The developing country’s women have
the highest propensity to work at home and the industrializing economy’s
women has higher propensity to stay at home than the developed econ-
omy’s. The human capital level of the developed economy’s men is high-
est; the next are the human capital levels of the industrializing economy’s
men and the developed economy’s women. The developing economy’s
women has the lowest human capital level.
We now show that the dynamic system has a unique equilibrium point.
As λ j + ξ j + σ j1 + σ j 2 = 1, we have
200
40
150
100 30
50 20
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 k1 10
-50
-100
k1
30 40 50
) )
C1 66.6% Kˆ
) ) 1 77.8%
Kˆ = 16.8% ,
C 2 = 25.5% ,
) )2
K 3 5.4%
ˆ
C3 7.7% (7.3.34)
)
where a variable x j with circumflex, x j , denotes country j ’s share of the
corresponding variable in the world economy. The developed economy’s
share of the world population is 13.3% , the industrializing economy’s
share of the world population is 20% , and that of the developing econ-
omy is 66.7% . Irrespective of its small population size, the global shares
of the output, wage income, consumption and wealth of the developed
economy are respectively 63.0% , 63.3% , 66.6% , and 77.8% . The de-
270 7 One-Sector Global Growth Models with Capital Accumulation
veloping economy has 66.7% of the world population, its global shares of
the output, wage income, consumption and wealth are respectively only
10% , 9.6% , 7.7% , and 5.4% .
We calculate the national trade balances at equilibrium as follows
The simulation results are plotted in Fig. 7.3.2. We observe that the
variables approach to their equilibrium values in the long term. Depending
on the initial conditions, these variables may experience different paths of
economic development. We now examine how changes in he parameters
will affect paths of economic development and equilibrium values of the
variables.
First, we examine the case that all the parameters, except the developed
economy’s productivity, A1 , are the same as in (7.3.33). We increase the
productivity level, A1 , from 6 to 7 . The simulation results are demon-
strated in Fig. 7.3.3. In the plots, a variable ∆x j (t ) stand for the change
rate of the variable x j (t ) in percentage due to changes in the parameter
value from A10 ( = 6 in this case) to A1 ( = 7 ). That is
7.3 A Multi-Country Growth Model with Labor Supply and Capital 271
0.055
15 f1 0.054
0.053
10 0.052 r
0.051
5 f2 5 10 15 20
t
f3 0.049
t 0.048
5 10 15 20
a) the per-work-time output b) the rate of interest
250
100 w11 k̂1
80 200
60 w12 150
40 100
w21 50 k̂2
20 w22
w31 t t
5 10w32 15 20 5 k̂3 10 15 20
Tˆ12 50 c1
0.8
Tˆ Tˆ22
40
32
0.7 30
0.6 20
Tˆ11
t 10 c2
Tˆ31 5 10 Tˆ 15
21
20
5 10
c3 15 20
t
0.6 )
4 F1
0.5
Ê1
2 0.4
0.3
t
)
5 10 15 20 0.2 F2
-2 Ê3 0.1 )
Ê2 F3 t
5 10 15 20
x j (t ; A1 ) − x j (t ; A10 ) (7.3.37)
∆x j (t ) ≡ × 100 ,
x j (t ; A10 )
where x j (t ; A1 ) stands for the value of the variable x j with the parameter
value A1 at time t and x j (t ; A10 ) stands for the value of the variable x j
with the parameter value A10 at time t . We will use the symbol ∆ with
the same meaning when we analyze other parameters.
From Fig. 7.3.3a, we see that the per-work-time output level in the de-
veloped economy rises over time; the per-work-time output levels of the
other two economies fall down initially but rise after a few periods of time.
In the new equilibrium all the per-work-time output levels rise due to the
improved productivity. As demonstrated in Fig. 7.3.3b, the rate of interest
falls. The wage rate of the developed economy is increased all the time;
the wage rates in the other two economies fall down initially and raise in
the long term. In the new equilibrium, all the wage rates are increased. The
per-family wealth of the developed economy rises. The per-family wealth
levels of the other two economies are slightly affected by the developed
economy’s productivity improvement in the long term. The consumption
exhibits a similar change pattern to that of wealth. Figure 7.3.3e shows that
the leisure times in the developing and industrializing economies initially
increase and then slightly fall down. The leisure times of men and women
in the developed economy fall. From Fig. 7.3.3g, we note that the devel-
oped economy’s trade balance deteriorates first and then becomes im-
proved. The industrializing economy’s trade balance improves initially and
deteriorates later on. The developing economy’s trade balance is slightly
affected. The developed economy’s share of the global output is increased
and the other countries’ shares decline.
We illustrate the effects of change in the developing economy’s produc-
tivity in Fig. 7.3.4. The per-work-time output level in the developing econ-
omy rises over time; the per-work-time output levels of the other two
economies fall down slightly. The rate of interest rises. The wage rate of
the developing economy rises; the wage rates in the other two economies
fall down. The per-family wealth level of the developing economy is in-
creased; the per-family wealth level of the developed economy rises tem-
porarily and then falls down; the industrializing economy’s per-family
wealth falls slightly. The consumption exhibits a similar change pattern to
that of the wealth. Figure 7.3.4g shows that the leisure times in the devel-
oped and industrializing economies rise and the leisure times of the devel-
oping economy falls initially and then rises slightly. Figure 7.3.4e shows
that both the developed and the industrializing economies’ trade balances
7.3 A Multi-Country Growth Model with Labor Supply and Capital 273
25
20
∆ f1 30
15
20
10
5 10 ∆r
∆f 2 t
5 10 15 20 t
-5 ∆f 3 5 10 15 20
25 ∆w1 25
20 20
15 ∆k̂1
15
10
10
5
5
∆w2 t
-5 ∆w3
5 10 15 20
∆k̂ 2 5 10 15 20
t
∆k̂3
c) the wage rates d) the per-family wealth
4 25
20
2
∆Th 2 ∆c1
t 15
5 10 15 20
-2 ∆Th3 10
-4 5
-6 ∆Th1 ∆c2 t
5 10 ∆c3 15 20
60 10 )
∆Ê240 ∆F1
t
20 5 10 15 20
∆Ê3 -10 )
t ∆F3
10 15 20 )
∆Ê1 -20 -20 ∆F2
175 12
150 ∆f 3
10
125
8
100
6
∆r
75
50 4
25 2
∆f1 , ∆f 2 t t
5 10 15 20 5 10 15 20
a) the per-work-time output b) the rate of interest
175 175
150
∆w3 150 ∆k̂3
125 125
100 100
75 75
50 50
25 ∆w1 , ∆w2 25 ∆k̂1
t t
5 10 15 20 ∆k̂ 2 5 10 15 20
200
)
∆Ê1 100 ∆F3
150
t
∆Ê2 10 15 20 100
-100
50
)
-200
∆Ê3 ∆F2 t
)5 10 15 20
-300 ∆F1
g) the trade balances h) the shares of global product
20 12
t
5 10 15 20 15 10
-0.5 8
-1 10 ∆k̂1 6
5
4 ∆c1
-1.5 ∆w21 , ∆w22 2
-2 ∆w11 , ∆w12 5 ∆k̂ 210 15 20
t
5 ∆c210 15 20
t
∆ f1 t
1
∆f 3 5 10 15 20
-1
0.8
∆f 2 -2
0.6
-3
0.4
-4
0.2
-5
∆r
t
5 10 15 20 -6
∆w11 , ∆w12 5
1
0.8
4 ∆k̂1
∆w31 , ∆w32
0.6 3
0.2 1 ∆k̂3
5 10 15 20
t ∆k̂ 2 t
5 10 15 20
c) the wage rates d) the per-family wealth
t 2
5 10 ∆Tˆ3115
, ∆Tˆ32 20
-0.2
1.5 ∆c1
-0.4 ∆Tˆ21 , ∆Tˆ22
-0.6 1 ∆c3
-0.8
0.5
-1 ∆c 2
-1.2 ∆Tˆ11 , ∆Tˆ12 t
5 10 15 20
2
∆Ê1 )
0.5
1 ∆F1
t
) t
10 15 20 5 ∆ F 10 )
15 20
3
-1
-0.5 ∆F2
∆Ê3
-1
-2
-1.5
-3
∆Ê2
g) the trade balances h) the shares of global product
Fig. 7.3.6. The developed economy increases its propensity to save
7.3 A Multi-Country Growth Model with Labor Supply and Capital 277
0.4
∆f 3 t
∆ f1 ∆f 2 5 10 15 20
0.3 -0.5
0.2 -1
0.1
-1.5 ∆r
-2
t
5 10 15 20
25 8
20
∆Ê3
6 )
15 ∆F3
10 4
5 2)
∆Ê210 15 20
t
∆F2 t
-5 ) 5 10 15 20
∆Ê1 ∆F1
g) the trade balances h) the shares of global product
Fig. 7.3.7. The developing economy increases its propensity to save
The per-family wealth of the developed economy falls down initially and
then rises permanently; the per-family wealth levels of the industrializing
and developing economies rise. The consumption exhibits a similar change
pattern to that of wealth. Figure 7.3.4e shows that the leisure times of all
the groups in the global economy are reduced. The developed economy’s
trade balance improves, the other two economies’ trade balances deterio-
rate. The share of the developed economy’s output in the global economy
rises and the shares of the other two economies fall.
We illustrate the effects of change in the developing economy’s popula-
tion as in Fig. 7.3.9. We see that the world economy suffers with regard to
the economic variables (except the leisure times) in per-family terms as the
developing economy increases its population.
We now examine effects of change in the human capital level of the
women in the developed economy. The effects are illustrated as in Fig.
7.3.10. The per-work-time output levels of the three economies are in-
creased. The wage rate of the developed economy’s women is greatly in-
creased and the other groups’ wage rates are affected only slightly. The
rate of interest falls down. The per-family wealth of the developed econ-
omy rises and the other economies’ per-family wealth levels rise slightly.
The leisure time of the developed economy’s men rises and that of the
women falls. The leisure times of men and women in the other economies
are only slightly affected. The consumption exhibits a similar change pat-
tern to that of wealth. The developed economy’s trade balance improves;
the other two economies’ trade balances deteriorate. The shares of the de-
veloped and developing economies’ outputs in the global economy rise
and the share of the industrializing economy falls.
We now allow the human capital level of the developing economy’s
men to rise. The effects are illustrated as in Fig. 7.3.11. The per-work-time
output levels of the three economies are reduced. The rate of interest rises.
The wage rate of the developing economy’s men is increased and the other
groups’ wage rates are affected only slightly. The per-family wealth of the
developing economy rises and the other economies’ per-family wealth lev-
els change slightly. The leisure time of the developing economy’s men
falls and that of the women rises. The leisure times of men and women in
the other economies are only slightly affected.
Finally, we examine effects of changes in the propensities to use leisure
time. For illustration, We require
∆σ j1 = − ∆σ j 2 , ∆ξ j = ∆λ j = 0
7.3 A Multi-Country Growth Model with Labor Supply and Capital 279
0.35 ∆ f1 5 10 15 20
t
0.3
0.25 ∆f 3 ∆f 2 -0.5
0.2
-1
0.15
0.1 -1.5
0.05 ∆r
t -2
5 10 15 20
0.25 ∆k̂ 2 t
∆w21 , ∆w22 5 10 15 20
0.2 -0.2
0.15
-0.4 ∆k̂1
0.1
0.05 -0.6
t -0.8
5 10 15 20
t
5 10 ∆Tˆ , 15∆Tˆ32 20 0.2 ∆c3
31
-0.1 ∆c2
∆Tˆ21 , ∆Tˆ22 t
-0.2 5 10 15 20
-0.3 -0.2 ∆c1
-0.4 ∆Tˆ11 , ∆Tˆ12
-0.4
-0.5
0.75 4
∆Ê1 )
0.5 2 ∆F1
0.25
t t
10 15 20 5 10 15 20
-0.25 -2
-0.5 ∆Ê3 -4
-0.75 ) )
-1 ∆Ê2 -6 ∆F2 , ∆F3
t
5 10 15 20
0.6
-0.02
∆r
-0.04
-0.06 0.4
-0.08
0.2
-0.1 ∆f 2
-0.12 ∆f1 t
∆f 3 5 10 15 20
t 0.6
5 10 15 20
-0.02 0.5
-0.04 0.4
-0.06 0.3 ∆k̂1
-0.08 0.2
∆w11 , ∆w12 0.1
-0.1 ∆w21 , ∆w22 ∆k̂1 t
-0.12 5 10 15 20
∆w31 , ∆w32 -0.1
∆k̂3
c) the wage rates d) the per-family wealth
0.35
0.3 0.3
∆Tˆ11 , ∆Tˆ12
0.25
0.2
0.2
∆c1
0.15 0.1
0.1
∆Tˆ21 , ∆Tˆ22 5∆c2
t
0.05 10 15 20
∆Tˆ31 , ∆Tˆ32 t -0.1
5 10 15 20 ∆c3
e) the leisure time f) the per-family consumption levels
5
∆Ê1 8 )
2.5 ∆F3
6
10∆ Ê2
t
15 20
-2.5 4
-5 2
)
-7.5 ∆F2 t
-10 ∆Ê3 ) 5 10 15 20
∆F1
g) the trade balances h) the shares of global product
Fig. 7.3.9. The developing economy’s population rises
7.3 A Multi-Country Growth Model with Labor Supply and Capital 281
0.15 ∆f1 5 10 15 20
t
0.125
∆f 3 ∆f 2 -0.2
0.1
-0.4
0.075
0.05 -0.6
∆r
0.025
-0.8
t
5 10 15 20
20
∆w12 ∆k̂1
15 6
10 4
5 2
∆w11 , ∆w21 , ∆w22 , ∆w31 , ∆w32 ∆kˆ2 , ∆kˆ3
t t
5 10 15 20 5 10 15 20
c) the wage rates d) the per-family wealth
7.5 ∆c1
5 ∆T̂11 6
2.5
t 4
5 10 15 20
-2.5 ∆Tˆ21 , ∆Tˆ22 , ∆Tˆ31 , ∆Tˆ32
-5 2
-7.5
-10 ∆T̂12 ∆c2 , ∆c3 t
5 10 15 20
e) the leisure time f) the per-family consumption levels
4 )
5 ∆F3
2.5 2 )
∆Ê1 ∆F1
t t
10 15 20
-2.5 ∆Ê2 5 10 15 20
-2
-5
-7.5 -4 )
∆Ê3 ∆F2
-10 -6
t
5 10 15 20 2
-0.1
1.5 ∆r
-0.2 1
-0.3 0.5
-0.4 ∆f1
∆f 3 t
∆f 2 5 10 15 20
10
5
5
∆w11 , ∆w12 , ∆w21 , ∆w22 , ∆w32 ∆k̂1
t t
5 10 15 20 5 ∆k̂ 2 10 15 20
c) the wage rates d) the per-family wealth
20 20
15 ∆c3
10 ∆Tˆ32 15
5 ∆Tˆ11 , ∆Tˆ12 10
t
∆Tˆ21 , ∆Tˆ22
5 10 15 20
-5 5
-10
-15 ∆T̂31 ∆c2 t
∆c15 10 15 20
e) the leisure time f) the per-family consumption levels
20
10 ∆Ê1 30
)
t 20
∆F3
10 15 20
∆Ê-10
2
-20 10
-30 )
-40 ∆)F25 10 15 20
t
∆Ê3 ∆F1
g) the trade balances h) the shares of global product
Fig. 7.3.11. Men’s human capital is improved in the developing economy
sure time in the developed economy is reduced and that of the men is in-
creased. The leisure times of the other groups in the global economy are
slightly affected. The developed economy’s trade balance improves; the
other two economies’ trade balances deteriorate. The shares of the devel-
oped and industrializing economies’ outputs in the global economy fall
and the share of the developing economy rises.
t
-0.02
5 10 15 20
0.6
∆r
-0.04
-0.06 0.4
-0.08
-0.1 ∆f1 0.2
-0.12 ∆f 2
∆f 3 5 10 15 20
t
t 0.6
5 10 15 20
-0.02 0.5
-0.04 0.4
-0.06 0.3 ∆k̂1
-0.08 0.2
-0.1 ∆w , ∆w12 0.1
11
-0.12 ∆w21 , ∆w22 5∆k̂ 2 10 15 20
t
∆w31 , ∆w32 -0.1
∆k̂3
c) the wage rates d) the per-family wealth
7.5
5 ∆T̂11 0.3
2.5 0.2
∆5Tˆ21 , ∆10Tˆ22 , ∆15
Tˆ31 , ∆T20
ˆ t
32 0.1 ∆c1
-2.5
t
-5
∆5c2 10 15 20
-7.5 ∆T̂12 -0.1
∆c3
e) the leisure time f) the per-family consumption levels
5 )
2.5
∆Ê1 8
∆F3
6
t
-2.5
10 ∆Ê2 15 20
4
-5 2 )
∆F2
-7.5 t
∆Ê3 ) 5 10 15 20
-10
∆F1
g) the trade balances h) the shares of global product
Fig.7.3.12. Women’s propensity to use leisure time is reduced in the developed
8 Growth, Trade Patten and Structure
to explain joint determination of long-run trade patterns and world growth rates,
the model is still based on the Ramsey approach in explaining consumer behavior.
The Ramsey approach for the two economies results in a four dimensional prob-
lem. We will use the classical Oniki-Uzawa model to illustrate a simpler problem.
2 For instance, Rostow (1960), Kuznets (1963, 1966), and Lewis (1955).
3 Leontief (1941, 1966).
4 See, for instance, Sraffa (1960), Nikaido (1968), Morishima (1964, 1969),
country world economy. Section 8.1 studies the standard trade model in
neoclassical growth theory proposed by Oniki and Uzawa. The model exam-
ines interactions between the process of capital accumulation and the pattern
of international trade. It is presented in terms of the standard two-country,
two-commodity, two-factor model of international trade. Section 8.2 proposes
a trade model with economic structures and endogenous saving, synthesizing
the Oniki-Uzawa model and the one-sector growth trade model proposed in
Sect. 7.1. Section 8.3 studies a two-country trade model in which economic
product in each country is classified into goods and services. Section 8.4 con-
cludes the chapter. Section A.8.1 extends the two-country model in Sect. 8.3
to any number of countries. Section A.8.2 presents a two-country optimal
model, extending and generalizing the Oniki-Uzawa trade model.
5 Before Oniki and Uzawa published their important model, many authors had
(Uzawa, 1961). The model has been extended, mainly within the overlapping-
generations framework. See Zhang (2005a) for the recent literature of the two-
sector model for closed economies.
8.1 Oniki-Uzawa’s Trade Model with Capital Accumulation 287
N& (t ) = nN (t ),
where n is the fixed population growth rate, which is assumed to be equal
in both countries.7
Let subscript indexes, i and c , stand respectively for consumption
goods (sector) and investment goods (sector). We use symbols, F j , K j ,
N j and X j to denote the amount of output, capital, labor, and with regard
to sector j, j = i , c. Assume that the production functions,
F j (K i (t ), N i (t )), are neoclassical. In each country the aggregate quantity
K& (t ) = Yi (t ) − δ k K (t ), (8.1.1)
Yc (t ) = Fc (K c (t ), N c (t )) + X c (t ). (8.1.3)
Let p(t ) represent the price of the investment good in terms of the con-
sumption good. The marginal conditions are given
∂Fi ∂F
p(t ) ≤ r (t ), p(t ) i ≤ w (t ),
∂K i ∂N i
where w (t ) and r (t ) the wage and rental rate in Home and Foreign. In
(8.1.5), inequality is replaced by equality if the corresponding output is
positive. Because of the neoclassical assumptions, the relations (8.1.5) are
satisfied with equality.
We assume that the payment of foreign trade always balances for each
country, i.e.
X c (t ) + p (t )X i (t ) = 0 . (8.1.6)
Assume that each country saves a constant fraction of its gross national
product and consumes the rest; namely
p(t )Yi (t ) = s Y (t ), (8.1.8)
where s are the constant saving rates in Home and Foreign. The sum of
net imports for each good over the world is zero
~
X j (t ) + X j (t ) = 0 , j = i , c . (8.1.9)
We have thus built the model. We now examine behavior of the model.
8.1 Oniki-Uzawa’s Trade Model with Capital Accumulation 289
We now try to find the reciprocal demand function, which relates the de-
mand for net imports of goods by each country with the relative price pre-
vailing in the world market. We will omit time in expression and are only
concerned with Home as the corresponding variables for Foreign can be
easily determined. As the production functions are neoclassical and mar-
kets are perfectly competitive, the variables can be expressed in per capita
terms. We introduce
K Y Kj Nj Yj X
k≡ , y ≡ , kj ≡ , nj ≡ , yj ≡ , x≡ i,
N N Nj N Nj N
wj
ω≡ , j = i , c.
rj
dk j
=−
(f ) j
' 2
> 0 , ∀ k j > 0.
(8.1.12)
dω f j f j"
f (k j )
ω k j (ω ) kj
1 dp(ω ) 1 1 (8.1.14)
= − ,
p(ω ) dω ki + ω kc + ω
where we use Eqs. (8.1.11) and (8.1.12). As ω is increased, the relative
price rises (falls) k c > (<) ki . For simplicity of discussion, we will confine
the study of the Oniki-Uzawa model to the case in which the consumption
good sector is always more capital-intensive than the investment good sec-
tor, i.e., k c (ω ) > ki (ω ), for all ω > 0 .
The equilibrium conditions (8.1.5), (8.1.7) and (8.1.8) can now be ex-
pressed as follows
ki (ω )ni + k c (ω )nc = k , ni + nc = 1, ni , nc ≥ 0 ,
y = yc + pyi , pyi = sy ,
p j (k ) ≡ p (ω j (k )), j = i , c .
Case I: 0 < p ≤ pc (k )
According to (8.1.15), the economy is specialized to consumption good,
i.e.
ni = 0 , nc = 1, ω = ωc (k ). (8.1.17)
Case II: p ≥ pi (k )
According to (8.1.15), the economy is specialized to investment good,
i.e.
ni = 1, nc = 0 , ω = ωi (k ). (8.1.19)
By (8.1.16), we have
x( p ) = − (1 − s ) f i (k i )ni , p ≥ pi (k ). (8.1.20)
x( p )
x( p )
pc (k ) = pi (k )
pi (k )
pc (k ) p p
a) k c (k ) < ki (k ) b) kc (k ) = ki (k )
We have derived the reciprocal demand curves for Home and Foreign with
given price. We are now concerned with determination of p and the
global economy as a whole. The relative sizes of labor force of Home and
Foreign, denoted by n* (t ) and n~ * (t ), are given by
N (t )
n * (t ) = ~ .
N (t ) + N (t )
From (8.1.18), (8.1.20), and (8.1.22), we know that the reciprocal de-
mand functions for Home and Foreign can be written as
()
s f c k / p , for p ≤ pc k () (8.1.23)
( ) ( )
x p , k = x0 p , k , ()
for pc k < p < pi k ()
( )
− (1 − s ) f i k i ni , for p ≥ pi k ()
where p = p (ω ) for the non-specialized case and
x0 ≡
( ){ ( ) ( )} (
s k + ω s k c + ω + (1 − s ) k i + ω − k c + ω k i + ω
.
)( )
(
kc − ki / f i ' ki ) ( )
∂p n *∂x / ∂k (8.1.25)
=− * ,
∂k n ∂x / ∂p + n~ *∂~
x / ∂p
pattern II: Home produces the two goods and Foreign specializes in the
investment good
In this case we have
∂p ∂p
> 0 , ~ < 0.
∂k ∂k
pattern III: Home produces the two goods and Foreign specializes in the
consumption good
In this case we have
∂p ∂p
> 0 , ~ > 0.
∂k ∂k
pattern IV: Home produces the investment good and Foreign specializes
in the consumption good
In this case we have
∂p ∂p
< 0 , ~ > 0.
∂k ∂k
These results can be confirmed by (8.1.23) and (8.1.25). We see that
under kc > ki , if a country does not produce investment goods, the world
price of the investment good rises whenever the capital-labor ratio of that
country is increased. On the other hand, if a country produces investment
goods, an increase in the capital-labor ratio of that country will decrease
the world price of the investment good.
8.1 Oniki-Uzawa’s Trade Model with Capital Accumulation 295
It is straightforward to confirm
∂Φ ∂Φ
< 0 , ~ < 0.
∂k ∂k
pattern II: Home produces the two goods and Foreign specializes in the
investment good
In this case we have
k&
k
( ) ~
= Φ k , k ≡ sf i ' (ki )
k +ω
k
−δ,
~&
k ~ ~ ~
( )
~ = Φ k, k ≡
s fi k
~
−δ.
()
k k
We have
~ ~
∂Φ ∂Φ ∂Φ ∂Φ
< 0, ~ < 0, = 0 , ~ < 0.
∂k ∂k ∂k ∂k
pattern III: Home produces the two goods and Foreign specializes in the
consumption good
In this case we have
296 8 Growth, Trade Patten and Structure
k&
k
( )~
= Φ k , k ≡ sf i ' (ki )
k +ω
k
−δ,
( ) ( ( ))
~& ~ ~
k ~ ~ s fc k
~ = Φ k, k ≡ ~ ~ −δ.
k p k, k k
We have
~ ~
∂Φ ∂Φ ∂Φ ∂Φ
< 0, ~ < 0, < 0 , ~ < 0.
∂k ∂k ∂k ∂k
pattern IV: Home produces the investment good and Foreign specializes
in the consumption good
In this case we have
~ sf (k )
k&
k
( )
= Φ k, k ≡ i
k
−δ,
~&
~ (1 − s )n* f i (k )
k ~
( )
~ = Φ k, k ≡
k
~
n~ * k
−δ.
We have
~ ~
∂Φ ∂Φ ∂Φ ∂Φ
< 0, ~ = 0, > 0 , ~ < 0.
∂k ∂k ∂k ∂k
As the equations are explicitly given, it is straightforward to analyze the
model.
8 These assumptions include, for instance, fixed savings rates, identical produc-
tion functions for each sector in the two countries, classification of goods into con-
sumption and investment goods.
8.2 Economic Structure, Trade and Capital Accumulation 297
Most aspects of production sectors in our model are similar to the neo-
classical one-sector growth model. We classify economic product into
consumption good and investment good. Correspondingly, each economy
may have two sectors - consumption sector and investment sector. The two
economies are called Home and Foreign. Perfect competition prevails
within each country and between countries. There is no transaction cost.
Assume that there are two production factors, capital and labor; quantities
of factors are identical in the two economies. Each commodity is produced
by combining labor and capital. Labor is fixed.9 Like in the Oniki-Uzawa
model, consumption goods are instantaneously consumed and investment
goods are accumulated as capital stock.10 Capital is both internationally
and domestically completely mobile.11 Labor is internationally immobile
and domestically completely mobile.
For Foreign, we will use the same symbol that we use for Home, but
with a tilde ~. Home’s and Foreign’s total amount of employment of capi-
~ ~
tal and labor are denoted respectively by, K (t ) and N , K (t ) and N . The
populations, N , in Home and Foreign are fixed and the amount of total
capital stocks, K (t ), vary over time. Let subscript indexes, i and c , stand
for investment good and consumption good, respectively. We use symbols,
F j (t ), K j (t ), and N j (t ) to denote the amount of output, capital, and labor
with regard to sector j , j = i , c . Each economy may produce two goods
with the following Cobb-Douglas production functions
9 The fixed labor force is analytically the same as the assumption of an identical
fixed growth rate in all economies as assumed in the Oniki-Uzawa model as the
economic world is neoclassical.
10 Capital is not immobile as assumed in the Oniki-Uzawa model.
11 Another case of this type of models is the so-called dynamic Heckscher-
Ohlin model. To obtain the standard Heckscher-Ohlin model, we have two goods.
But the factors are immobile internationally and the technologies are the same in
the two countries. It may be easier to get explicit conclusions in the Heckscher-
Ohlin economy than in the current one.
298 8 Growth, Trade Patten and Structure
F j (t ) = A j K j j (t )N j j (t ), j = 1, 2 ,
α β
α j , β j > 0 , α j + β j = 1, j = i , c , (8.2.1)
Kj α
kj ≡ , f j ≡ Aj k j j .
Nj
where
Kj K Nj
kj ≡ , k ≡ , nj ≡ .
Nj N N
Behavior of consumers
Let k w (t ) stand for the per capita wealth in Home and Foreign. The rep-
resentative household obtains the current income
12 For simplicity, we require that depreciation rate of capital is the same in dif-
y (t ) = r (t )k w (t ) + w (t ), (8.2.4)
from the interest payment rk w and the wage payment w . The disposable
income is equal to
y d (t ) = y (t ) + k w (t ) (8.2.5)
U (t ) = c ξ 0 (t )s λ0 (t ), ξ 0 , λ0 > 0 . (8.2.7)
pc = ξ y d , s = λ y d , (8.2.8)
where
1
ξ ≡ ρ ξ 0 , λ ≡ ρ λ0 , ρ ≡ .
ξ 0 + λ0
According to the definition of s (t ), the wealth accumulation is given by
k w (t ) = s (t ) − k w (t ). (8.2.9)
&
The sum of net imports for consumption good over the world is zero
~
X (t ) + X (t ) = 0 . (8.2.11)
For each country, the demand for consumption good equals the supply
of the good at any point time
300 8 Growth, Trade Patten and Structure
C (t ) = Fc (t ) + X (t ). (8.2.12)
The world production of the investment good is equal to the world net
saving. That is
~ ~~ ~ ~ ~ (8.2.13)
S − Nk w + ∑ δ k K j + S − Nk w + ∑δ
k K j = Fi + Fi .
j j
We have thus built the model.
where
αi βc
a≡ .
α c βi
In the reminder of this study, we require α i > α c , which implies
a > 1. 13 From a > 1 and ki = ak c , we have ki > k c . Hence, the require-
ment of α i > α c always guarantees that the investment good sector is al-
ways more capital-intensive than the consumption good sector.
From (8.2.14) and w = β c pf c = β i f i , we have
where
Ai β i a α i
A≡ .
Ac β c
From (8.2.2), we can also determine r and w as unique functions of
k s . Let p stand for the price of consumption good in the world market.
We now examine patterns of specialization.
13 It is straightforward to check α i β c − α c β i = α i − α c .
8.2 Economic Structure, Trade and Capital Accumulation 301
We see that the labor distribution, capital distribution and factor prices
are uniquely expressed as functions of k and p . From the definition of
yd , we have
yd (k , k w , p ) = (δ + α i Ai k − βi )k w + β i Ai kiα i , (8.2.17)
where δ ≡ 1 − δ k .
From C = Fc + X , we have X = cN − Nnc f c . Insert pc = ξyd in
(8.2.8) into this equation
ξNy d (8.2.18)
X = − Nnc f c .
p
From Eqs. (8.2.16)-(8.2.18), we have
[
X (k , k w , p ) = (δ + α i Ai k − β i )k w + β i Ai kiα i ]ξpN . (8.2.19)
We see that the labor distribution, capital distribution and factor prices
are uniquely expressed as functions of k and p . From the definition of
yd , we have
y d (k , k w , p ) = (δ + α c Ac pk − β c )k w + β c Ac pk α c . (8.2.21)
[
X (k , k w , p ) = (δ + α c Ac pk − β c )k w + β c Ac pk α c ]ξpN − NA k c
αc
.
(8.2.22)
302 8 Growth, Trade Patten and Structure
[
X (k , k w , p ) = (δ + α c Ac A β cb p1−bβ c )k w + β c Ac A −α cb p1+ bα c ]ξpN
p − bβ c k − (a / Ab ) p bα c
− . (8.2.25)
(a − 1)aA− β b / NAc
c
We have derived the reciprocal demand curves for Home and Foreign with
given price. We are now concerned determination of p and the global
economy as a whole. As examining the behavior of the Oniki-Uzawa
model, we may have four different patterns of specialization. As the prob-
lem is so complicated, we are only concerned with the pattern that Home
specializes in the investment good and Foreign specializes in the consump-
tion good. As shown in the previous section, this case occurs when
p (k c ) > p > ~
~
( )
p k c . In this case, the reciprocal demand functions are given
by
[
X (k , k w , p ) = (δ + α i Ai k − β i )k w + β i Ai kiα i ]ξpN ,
~~
~ ~ ~
( ) [(
~ ~ ~ ~ −βc ~ ~ ~ ~αc ξ N
X k , k w , p = δ + α c Ac k p k w + β c Ac k p
p
)~~ ~
− NAc k α c .
(8.2.26)
]
8.2 Economic Structure, Trade and Capital Accumulation 303
~
We now show that k and k can be expressed as functions of p , k w
~
and k w . From Eqs. (8.2.16), (6.2.20) and (8.2.10), we have
~ ~ ~~
α i Ai k − β i = α~c Ac pk − β c ,
~
kN + k N = K w ,
~ ~ ~
where K w ≡ k w N + k w N . We have the following equation to determine k
~~ ~~
NAI p −1/ β i k β c / β i + Nk = K w ,
~
(
where AI ≡ α~c Ac / α i Ai )
−1 / β i ~~
and k = AI p −1/ βi k β c / β i . For obtaining explicit
~
expressions, we further assume β i = β c . Under this requirements, we solve
K w AI ~ K w p1 / β i (8.2.27)
k= ~ , k = ~ .
NAI + Np1/ β i NAI + Np1/ βi
~
For given k w (t ) and k w (t ), by Eqs. (8.2.26) and (8.2.27), and
~
X + X = 0 , we see that the relative price is determined by
βi
Kw
g 0 ~ 1/ βi + g1
NAI + Np
ξNβ i Ai AIα i
+ ~
~~ ~
(
− 1 − β cξ Ac p1 / β i )Kw
~ 1/ βi = 0 , (8.2.28)
N NAI + Np
~
in which we also use k = AI p −1/ β i k and
(
~ δξNk
) ~~
g 0 k w , k w ≡ ~ w + δξ k w > 0 ,
N
(
~
g1 k w , k w ≡ )
ξα i Ai NAI− β c k w ~ ~ ~~
N
~ + α c Acξ k w > 0 .
~
Let Λ ≡ NAI + Np1 / β i . We express (8.2.28) as
−α i
g0 K Λ +
g1
αi
−
~~ ~
1 − β cξ Ac
~ Λ +
(
ξNβ i Ai AIα i
~
) (8.2.29)
w
Kw N N
+
( ~~ ~
1 − β cξ Ac NAI
~
)
= 0,
N
where
304 8 Growth, Trade Patten and Structure
g1
−
( ~~ ~
~ =
)−
~~
~
(~
1 − β cξ Ac 1 − β cξ − ξα~c Ac k w N ~~ ~ 1 )
− λ Ac k w < 0.
Kw N N K w
D
dp
( )
~ ξk w N ~
= ξ − α iξ ~ + k w δNK w Λ +
−α i −1 α i
~ ~~
ξ − ξ α~c Ac k w NΛ(,
)
dk w N K w2
where
g
D ≡ − α i g 0 K w−α i Λ− β i + 1 − ~
(
~~ ~ ~
)
1 − β cξ Ac Np α i / β i
> 0.
K w N β i
~
We conclude that if ξ > ξ , then dp / dk w > 0 . That is, if Home’s pro-
pensity to consume is higher than Foreign’s propensity to consume, then a
rise in Home’s per capita wealth tends to increase the price of the con-
~
sumption good. If ξ < α iξ , we have dp / dk w < 0 . Otherwise, the impact
~
is ambiguous. We can get dp / dk w .
~&
(
~ ~~ ~ ~
) ~~
k w = λ δ − 1 + α i λ Ac k − β i p k w + β i Ac k α c p ,
(8.2.30)
~
where we use β i = β i . Substituting (8.2.27) into equations yields
K A
− βi
K A
αi
~ (8.2.31)
~~ K ~
− βi αc
~& ~ K
k w = λ δ − 1 + α i λ Ac w k w + β i Ac p1 / β i w ,
ph ph
~
where ph ≡ NAI + Np1 / β i .
( ~
)
Finally, substituting p k w , k w into Eqs. (8.2.31), we obtain two differ-
~
ential equations which describe the motion of k w (t ) and k w (t ) when Home
specializes in the investment good and Foreign specializes in the consump-
~
tion good. As k w (t ) and k w (t ) vary, the conditions that Home specializes
in the investment good and Foreign specializes in the consumption good
may be broken, then we have to deal with the motion of other possible pat-
terns of specialization. The entire dynamics are too complicated. We will
not further examine the model as the analysis is tedious. As we have pro-
vided the procedure to simulate the model, it is straightforward to illustrate
motion of the system with specified functional forms and parameter val-
ues.
15 This also tells why in the literature of trade theory, there had been few equi-
librium trade models. Even an extremely simple equilibrium model with differ-
ences both in technologies and preferences tends to be analytically intractable.
306 8 Growth, Trade Patten and Structure
consider some products which are not tradable, then the analysis may be-
come easier. For instance, when time and space are explicitly considered,
services have their typical characteristics. In most cases, they are produced
and consumed at the same time and at the same place. This means that ser-
vices can be consumed only in the country in which they are supplied. In
this section, it is assumed that services, such as hotels, restaurants, hospi-
tals, education, transportation and communication systems, supplied by
one country cannot be consumed by the other country.
Most aspects of production sectors in our model are similar to the neo-
classical one-sector growth model. We classify economic product into
goods and services. Correspondingly, each economy may have two sectors
- good sector and service sector. The two economies are called Home and
Foreign. Perfect competition prevails within each country and between
countries. There is no transaction cost. Assume that there are two produc-
tion factors, capital and labor; quantities of goods are identical in the two
economies. Goods and services are produced by combining labor and capi-
tal. Labor is fixed.16 Capital is both internationally and domestically com-
pletely mobile. Services are country-specified and are consumed simulta-
neously as they are produced. Labor is internationally immobile and
domestically completely mobile.
For Foreign, we will use the same symbol that we use for Home, but
with a tilde ~. Home’s and Foreign’s total amount of employment of capi-
~ ~
tal and labor are denoted respectively by, K (t ) and N , K (t ) and N . The
populations, N , in Home and Foreign are fixed and the amount of total
capital stocks, K (t ), vary over time. Let subscript indexes, i and s , stand
for good and service good, respectively. We use symbols, F j (t ), K j (t ),
and N j (t ) to denote the amount of output, capital, and labor with regard to
sector j , j = i , s . Each economy may produce two goods with the fol-
lowing Cobb-Douglas production functions
16 The fixed labor force is analytically the same as the assumption of an identi-
cal fixed growth rate in all economies as assumed in the Oniki-Uzawa model as
the economic world is neoclassical.
8.3 Trade and Growth with Non-Traded Services 307
F j (t ) = A j K j j (t )N j j (t ), j = 1, 2 ,
α β
α j , β j > 0 , α j + β j = 1, j = i , s , (8.3.1)
Kj α
kj ≡ , f j ≡ Aj k j j .
Nj
where
Kj K Nj
kj ≡ , k ≡ , nj ≡ .
Nj N N
Behavior of consumers
Let k w (t ) stand for the per capita wealth in Home and Foreign. The rep-
resentative household obtains the current income
17 Here, we assume that depreciation rate of capital is the same within any
y (t ) = r (t )k w (t ) + w (t ), (8.3.4)
from the interest payment rk w and the wage payment w . The disposable
income is equal to
y d (t ) = y (t ) + k w (t ). (8.3.5)
where
1
ξ ≡ ρ ξ 0 , γ ≡ ρ γ 0 , λ ≡ ρ λ0 , ρ ≡ .
ξ 0 + γ 0 + λ0
According to the definition of s (t ), the wealth accumulation is given by
k w (t ) = s (t ) − k w (t ). (8.3.9)
&
For each country, the demand for services equals the supply of services
at any point time
N cs (t ) = Fs (t ). (8.3.11)
~
Denote E (t ) ( E (t ) ) the capital stocks owned by Foreign (Home) but
employed by Home (Foreign). We have
8.3 Trade and Growth with Non-Traded Services 309
E (t ) = K (t ) − N k w (t ). (8.3.12)
Equation (8.3.13) can also be obtained from Eqs. (8.3.12) and (8.3.10).
The sum of net savings and consumption of goods of the world is equal to
its total product. That is18
~ ~ ~~ ~ ~
Nci + S − Nk w + ∑δ k K j + Nc~i + S − Nk w + ∑ δ k K j
j j (8.3.14)
~
= Fi + Fi .
We have thus built the model.
This section derives dynamic equations for global economic growth. From
Eqs. (8.3.2), we solve
k s = a ki , (8.3.15)
where
α s βi
a ≡ .
αi βs
p = A k sα i −α s , (8.3.16)
where
Ai β i
A≡ .
a As β s
αi
~ ~
(8.3.17)
ki = A0 kiβi / βi ,
where
~
~ 1/ βi
α~i Ai
A0 ≡ .
α i Ai
We see that from Eqs. (8.3.15)-(8.3.17) and (8.3.2), we determine r ,
~
w , k s and ki as unique functions of ki .
From the definitions of yd and Eqs. (8.3.2), we have
y d = y0 k w + β i f i , (8.3.18)
where δ ≡ 1 − δ k and
α f
y0 (k i ) ≡ δ + i i .
ki
We see that yd are functions of k w and ki . From Eq. (8.3.11), we have
N γyd (8.3.19)
( )
ns = Ψ k i , k w , k w ≡
pf s
, ni = 1 − Ψ ki , k w , k w , ( )
where we use pcs = γ y d and ni + ns = 1. From Eqs. (8.3.3), we have
(
k = k i + a0 k i Ψ k i , k w , k w , ) (8.3.20)
~
a1k i y d ~ a~ k ~ y ~
ki + + nki + 1~ i~ d = k w + nk w ,
βi fi βi fi
where we use Eqs. (8.3.18). Taking derivatives of Eq. (8.3.22) with respect
to time yields
~& ∂Ψ0 & ∂Ψ0 &
kw = ki + kw .
∂k i ∂k w
k&i = Λ i (k w , ki ) ≡ (8.3.24)
−1
~~ ~
(
~~
)
λ β i f i + λ y0 − 1 Ψ0 − Λ w (k w , ki )
∂Ψ0 & ∂Ψ0
k w .
∂k w ∂ki
Equations (8.3.24) contain two variables, k w and ki .
312 8 Growth, Trade Patten and Structure
Lemma 8.3.1
For given initial values of k w (0) and ki (0 ), the motion of k w (t ) and ki (t )
is given by Eqs. (8.3.24). The values of the other variables are given as
functions of k w (t ) and ki (t ) at any point of time by the following proce-
~ ~ α
dure: k w by (8.3.22) → ki by (8.3.17) → k s by (8.3.15) → f j = A j k j j
→ p by (8.3.16) → r and w → yd by (8.3.18) → ci , cs and s (8.3.8)
→ ns and ni by (8.3.19) → k by (8.3.20) → E by (8.3.12) →
N j = n j N → K j = k j N j → Fj = N j f j .
λ βi fi (8.3.26)
kw = .
1 − λ y0
From Eqs. (8.3.25) and (8.3.19), we have
N γk w (8.3.27)
ns = Ψ = .
λ pf s
Inserting Eqs. (8.3.27) and (8.3.26) in Eq. (8.3.21), we have
~ ak λ (8.3.28)
Φ(k i ) ≡ ki + nk i − β i f i − 1 i −
λ 1 − λy 0
~
~ ~ a~1ki nλ~
βi fi − ~ ~ = 0,
λ 1 − λ ~y0
8.3 Trade and Growth with Non-Traded Services 313
~ ~
where we use ki = A0 kiβ i / β i . Equation (8.3.28) contains a single variable,
ki . Once we determine the variable, all the variables are determined
through the procedure given by the following lemma.
Lemma 8.3.2
Equation (8.3.28) determines ki . The equilibrium values of the other vari-
ables are determined as functions of ki by the following procedure:
~ ~ α
ki = A0 k iβ i / β i → k w by (8.3.26) → k s by (8.3.15) → f j = A j k j j → p by
(8.3.16) → r and w by (8.3.2) → yd by (8.3.18) → ci , cs and s by
(8.3.16) → ns and ni by (8.1.19) → k by (8.3.20) → E by (8.3.12) →
N j = n j N → K j = k j N j → Fj = N j f j .
Appendix
The appendix generalizes the model in Sect. 8.3 to any number of coun-
tries. Let there be Q countries, indexed by q = 1, ... , Q . Country q' s ’s to-
tal amount of employment of capital and labor are denoted respectively by,
K q (t ) and N q . Let subscript indexes, i and s , stand for good and service
good, respectively. We use symbols, F jq (t ), K jq (t ), and N jq (t ) to denote the
amount of output, capital, and labor with regard to sector j , j = i , s . Each
economy may produce two goods with the following neoclassical production
functions
F jq (t ) = F jq (K jq (t ), N jq (t )), j = 1, 2 , j = i , s , q = 1, ..., Q . (A.8.1.1)
where
K jq Kq N jq
k jq ≡ , kq ≡ , n jq ≡ .
N jq Nq Nq
Appendix 315
Behavior of consumers
Let k wq (t ) stand for the per capita wealth in country q . The representative
household obtains the current income
y q (t ) = r (t )k wq (t ) + wq (t ). (A.8.1.4)
where
1
ξ q ≡ ρ q ξ 0 q , γ q ≡ ρ q γ 0 q , λ q ≡ ρ q λ0 q , ρ q ≡ .
ξ 0 q + γ 0 q + λ0 q
For each country, the demand for services equals the supply of services
at any point time
N q csq (t ) = Fsq (t ). (A.8.1.11)
316 8 Growth, Trade Patten and Structure
f iq' f sq'
= .
f iq − k iq f iq' f sq − k sq f sq'
k sq = φq (k iq ). (A.8.1.13)
pq = φ pq (kiq ). (A.8.1.14)
y dq = y0 q (k i1 )k wq + wq (k i1 ), (A.8.1.16)
Appendix 317
N qγ q y dq (A.8.1.17)
nsq = Ψq (ki1 , k wq ) ≡ , niq = 1 − Ψq (ki1 , k wq ),
pq f sq
where we use pq csq = γ q y dq and niq + nsq = 1. From Eqs. (A.8.1.3) and
(A.8.1.17), we have
k q = kiq + (k sq − k iq )Ψq (ki1 , k wq ). (A.8.1.18)
∑N k
q
q q = ∑N kq
q wq .
∑ [k
q
iq ]
+ (k sq − kiq )Ψq (ki1 , k wq ) N q = ∑ N q k wq .
q
(A.8.1.19)
∑ [k
q
iq ]
+ g q (ki1 ) y dq N q = ∑ N q k wq ,
q
where
g q (ki1 ) ≡
(k sq )
− kiq N qγ q
.
pq f sq
k w1 = Ω 0 (k i1 , {k wq }) ≡
∑ (k iq + g q wq )N q − ∑ (1 − g y0 q )N q k wq
Q
1 (A.8.1.20)
,
(1 − g1 y 01 )N1
q
q q =2
k&i1 = Λ1 (k i1 , {k wq }) ≡ (A.8.1.23)
−1
∂Ω ∂Ω 0
Λ q (k i1 , {k wq }) 0
Q
(λ1 y 01 − 1)k w1 + λ1 w1 − ∑ .
q=2 ∂k wq ∂k i1
F j (t ) = F j (K j (t ), H (t )N j (t )), j = 1, 2 , 3 ,
K j (t )
F j (t ) = H (t )N j (t ) f j (k j (t )), f j (k j (t )) ≡ F j ((t ), 1), k j (t ) ≡ .
H (t )N j (t )
Let W (t ) and R(t ) stand for respectively the nominal wage and rental
rates. The marginal conditions are
[
R = Pj f j' (k j ), W = Pj H f j (k j ) − k j f j' (k j ) , ] (A.8.2.1)
if F j > 0 , j = 1, 2 , 3 ,
Let A(t ) stand for the nominal stock of household assets and
r (t ) ≡ R(t ) / P3 (t ) be the real rate of interest. Households choose the con-
sumption levels of two consumption goods, C1 (t ) and C2 (t ), to maximize
the present discounted value of lifetime utility, as follows
∞
u 1−θ (C1 (t ), C2 (t )) − 1 − ρ t
max ∫ e dt ,
0 1−θ
H& (t ) = gH (t ).
As capital is not traded and capital depreciation is omitted, we have
K& (t ) = F3 (K 3 (t ), N 3 (t )). (A.8.2.4)
Adam Smith held that the large gains in the productivity of labor have their
origins in the large part of the skill, dexterity, and judgment, which are
consequences of the division of labor. The opportunities and incentives to
which workers respond in their investment in human capital are not seri-
ously considered by classical economists such as Smith, Ricardo, and
Marx. The omission was perhaps not so much misleading as it might ap-
pear, given the role of innovation and education in economic development
when the classical economists were constructing their theories. Neverthe-
less, to understand contemporary world economies, it is essential to exam-
ine possible effects of trade upon personal income distribution in a global-
izing world economy. It has been argued that productivity differences
explain much of the variation in incomes across countries, and technology
plays a key role in determining productivity.1 The pattern of worldwide
technical change is determined largely by international technology diffu-
sion because a few rich countries account for most of the world’s creation
of new technology. As globalization is deepening, it is important to pro-
vide analytical frameworks for analyzing global economic interactions. For
instance, it is important to examine how a developing economy like India
or China may affect different economies as its technology is improved or
population is increased; or how trade patterns may be affected as technolo-
gies are further improved or propensities to save are reduced in developed
economies like the US or Japan.
One of the first seminal attempts to render technical progress endoge-
nous in growth models was initiated by Arrow in 1962. He emphasized
one aspect of knowledge accumulation - learning by doing. In 1965 Uzawa
introduced a sector specifying in creating knowledge into growth theory.
The knowledge sector utilizes labor and the existing stock of knowledge to
produce new knowledge, which enhances productivity of the production
sector. Another approach is taken by, for instance, Kennedy in 1964,
Weizsäcker in 1966 and Samuelson in 1965, who took account of the as-
1 Different channels of inequalities are modeled by, for instance, Krugman and
Venables (1995), Manasse and Turrini (2001), Nakajima (2003), and Agénor
(2004).
324 9 Growth and Trade with Capital and Knowledge
(1991), Rauch (1991a), Stokey (1991), Nardini (2001), Martin and Ottaviano (2001),
Brecher et al. (2002), and Nocco (2005).
9.1 A National Growth Model 325
spread around the world through imitation and exports of capital goods
that embody new technology. It is argued that a country’s productivity de-
pends on its access to capital goods from around the world and its willing-
ness and ability to utilize them. Eaton and Kortum develop a model of
trade in capital goods to take account of this view. The theoretical frame-
work is a combination of the neoclassical growth model of technological
change embodied in new capital goods and a model of Ricardian trade. A
main purpose of the model is to link productivity to imports of capital
goods. The model also tries to discuss impact of trade barriers measured in
costs arising from factors such as marketing overseas, negotiating a foreign
purchase, transporting goods to foreign location, tariffs, non-tariff barriers,
distributing goods in foreign markets, installation in foreign production fa-
cilities, training foreign workers to use the equipment, and providing parts,
maintenance, and customer service from abroad.
This chapter examines interactions between growth, trade, knowledge
utilization, and creativity within a compact analytical framework. We con-
sider knowledge as an international public good in the sense that all coun-
tries access knowledge and the utilization of knowledge by one country
does not affect that by others. Section 9.1 introduces a growth model with
endogenous human capital accumulation for a national economy. Section 9.2
proposes a multi-country model with capital accumulation and knowledge
creation. This section assumes that knowledge creation is through learning by
doing and research. This section simulates the model to see how the system
moves over time and how the motion of the system is affected when some
parameters are changed. This section is organized as follows. Section 9.2.1
defines the multi-country model with capital accumulation and knowledge
creation. Section 9.2.2 examines the case when all the countries have the
same preference. We show that the motion of the global economy can be ex-
pressed by a two-dimensional differential equations system and we can ex-
plicitly determine the dynamic properties of the global economy. Section
9.2.3 shows that the dynamics of the world economy with J countries can be
described by ( J + 1) -dimensional differential equations. As mathematical
analysis of the system is too complicated, we demonstrate some of the dy-
namic properties by simulation when the world economy consists of three
countries. Sections 9.2.4 – 9.2.7 examine respectively effects of changes in
each country’s knowledge utilization efficiency and creativity, research pol-
icy, the propensity to save, and the population. The analytical results in Sect.
9.2.3 are proved in Appendix A.9.1.
326 9 Growth and Trade with Capital and Knowledge
The economy has one production sector and one education sector. The lat-
ter is called the university. We assume a homogenous and fixed national
labor force, N . The labor force is distributed between economic activities,
teaching and studying. We select commodity to serve as numeraire, with
all the other prices being measured relative to its price. We assume that
wage rates are identical among all professions. We introduce
5 The model is proposed by Zhang (2005a). See also Zhang (2006a: Sect. 3.2).
It should be noted that in Zhang (2007d) the time for education is an endogenous
variable.
6 There are a large number of the literature on economic growth with bifurcations
and chaos (for instance, Day, 1984; Hommes, 1991, 1998; Zhang, 1990, 1991; Azari-
adis, 1993; Boldrin, et al. 2001; Matsuyama, 1991, 2001; Shone, 2002). Zhang
(2005b, 2006b) introduces contemporary theories of differential and difference equa-
tions and their applications to economics.
9.1 A National Growth Model 327
F (t ) = AK iα (t )(H m (t )N i (t )) , A, α , β > 0 , α + β = 1.
β
We now study the behavior of the university. We assume that there are
two sources of improving human capital, through education and learning
by producing. Arrow first introduced learning by doing into growth theory;
328 9 Growth and Trade with Capital and Knowledge
υ K α e (H m N v ) v (H m N e ) e (9.1.4)
β β
υF
H& = e e + i π − δhH ,
N NH
where δ h (> 0) is the depreciation rate of human capital, υ e , υi , α e , β v ,
and β e are non-negative parameters. The above equation is a synthesis
and generalization of Arrow’s and Uzawa’s ideas about human capital ac-
cumulation. The term, υ e K eα e (H m N v ) v (H m N e ) e , describes the contribu-
β β
7 Arrow (1962) and Uzawa (1965). Learning by doing has been introduced into
growth theory in different ways. For instance, Chari and Hopenhayn (1991), Par-
ente (1994), and Stokey (1988) study learning by doing as a force for sustained
growth; Brezis et al. (1993), Krusell and Rios-Rull (1996), and Jovanovic and
Nyarko (1996) show that learning by doing can give rise to the overtaking; Karp
and Lee (2001) examined learning by doing and the choice of technology; and
Liso et al. (2001) examine the implications of learning by doing for division of la-
bor.
9.1 A National Growth Model 329
fixed available time, Ti is the work time and Te is the time as a student.
The student gets free education but does not receive any wage. It can be
seen that the conclusions will not be different in the two cases and the
model is still analytically tractable. The budget for paying teachers and the
capital stocks of the university is given by
w(t )N v (t ) + r (t )K e (t ) = τF (t ) − w(t )N e . (9.1.5)
Max υ e K eα e (H m N v ) v (H m N e ) e ,
β β
N − N e + β v N e / (α e + β v )
Ni = τ 0β ,
τ 0 β + τβ v
As ki = K i / H m N i , we obtain
k (t ) (9.1.11)
ki (t ) = ni ,
H m (t )
Lemma 9.1.1
For any given levels of wealth and human capital, k (t ) and H (t ), all the
other variables in the system are uniquely determined at any point of time.
The values of the variables are given as functions of k (t ) and H (t ) by the
following procedure: N i and N v by Eqs. (9.1.9) → K i (t ) and K e (t ) by
Eqs. (9.1.10) → ki (t ) by Eq. (9.1.11) → f = Akiα and F = N i H m f →
9.1 A National Growth Model 331
where
λ* ≡ λA(1 − τ )(αni− β + βniα ),
αe
aN υ e N vβ v N eβ e υ Anα N
υ ≡
*
e
, υi* ≡ i i i .
1 + a N N
Substituting this equation into the second equation in Eqs. (9.1.13) yields
Φ( H ) ≡ Φ e ( H ) + Φ i ( H ) − δ h = 0 , (9.1.14)
where
αe / β α /β
λ* λ*
Φ e (H ) ≡ υ H , Φ i (H ) ≡
* xe
υ i* H xi ,
ξ ξ
e
xe ≡ (α e + β v + β e )m − 1, xi ≡ m − π − 1.
332 9 Growth and Trade with Capital and Knowledge
Fig. 9.1.1. The two sectors exhibit different returns to scale effects
Proposition 9.1.18
(1) If xe < 0 and xi < 0, the system has a unique stable equilibrium; (2) If
xe > 0 and xi > 0 , the system has a unique unstable equilibrium; and (3)
If xe > 0 and xi < 0 ( xe < 0 and xi > 0 ), the system has either no equi-
librium, one equilibrium or two equilibrium points. When the system has
two equilibrium points, the equilibrium with low (high) level of H is sta-
ble (unstable).
We only interpret the stability condition, xe < 0 and xi < 0. From the
definitions of xe and xi , we may interpret xe and xi respectively as
measurements of returns to scale of the university and the industrial sector
in the dynamic system. When xe (< (>) 0, we say that the university dis-
plays decreasing (increasing) returns to scale in the dynamic economy. We
conclude that if both the university and the production sector display de-
creasing returns, then the dynamic system has a unique stable equilibrium.
If the two sectors exhibit decreasing returns to scale, the system will ap-
proach to its equilibrium in the long term. In a traditional society like the
one constructed by Adam Smith where increases in human capital mainly
come from division of labor and traditional education, the economic sys-
tem tends to be dominated by stability. In a newly industrializing econ-
omy, education may exhibit increasing returns to scale and learning by do-
ing may not be effective in improving human capital. The economy may
have multiple equilibrium points. If the society fails to explore increasing
returns effects from education, it may not achieve rapid industrialization.
We now demonstrate dynamics of the nonlinear system with multiple equi-
librium points.
We stimulate the model with two equilibrium points. We specify the pa-
rameters as follows
α = 0.35, N = 1, A = 2, N e = 0.06, τ = 0.08, λ = 0.7,
α e = 0.7, β e = 0.7, β v = 0.7, ν e = 1.8, ν i = 0.02,
(9.1.15)
δ h = 0.08, π = 0.3, m = 0.8.
(1835-1901) is exceptional.
9.1 A National Growth Model 335
H
25
20
15
10
20 40 60 80 100 120
We first examine effects of tax on the dynamic system. In our system, the
tax income is totally spent on education. We may thus interpret increases
in the tax rate as the promotion policy taken by the government. We may
simulate the model again. Here, we are interested in the path-dependent
case. We still specify the parameter values as in (9.1.15) except the tax
rate, τ . We reduce the resource for education. Let us consider the case that
the expenditure on education is reduced from 8 percent of the GDP to 7
percent, that is
τ : 0.08 ⇒ 0.07.
Figure 9.1.3 shows the simulation results – the points with larger sizes is
the new steady states and the other two points with smaller sizes are the
old steady states. The two steady states shift as follows:
(k1 , H1 ) : (17.858, 2.226) ⇒ (14.758, 1.718),
(k 2 , H 2 ) : (101.401, 19.509) ⇒ (230.783, 53.417 ).
We see that the new stable steady state has lower levels of human capi-
tal and per capita wealth; but the new unstable steady states have much
higher levels of k and H . It seems promising with the new education pol-
icy because the new unstable steady state of higher k and H is much bet-
ter than the old unstable one. Nevertheless, the economy with the discour-
aging policy has more chances to the traditional trap than to the economic
miracle. For instance, if we start from the following three points as in the
previous example in Fig. 9.1.2:
(k0 , H 0 ) = (1.5, 10), (k0 , H 0 ) = (115, 12), (k0 , H 0 ) = (70, 23).
As demonstrated in Fig. 9.1.3, all the paths with these initial condi-
tions end up in the poverty trap. But in Fig. 9.1.2, the path with
(k 0 , H 0 ) = (70, 23) exhibits the economic miracle. This example shows
that the discouraging policy deprives the society from development oppor-
tunity. The “chance” for development is loss due to the new policy. As
shown in Fig. 9.1.3, for the economy to experience sustained growth, the
economy must have a much higher initial level of human capital than in
the case of τ = 0.08 . Hence, if the society reduces its investment in educa-
tion, it will have much less opportunities to experience sustained economic
growth, even though heavy investment in education will not guarantee sus-
tainable development of the nonlinear system in certainty.
H
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
H
25
20
15
10
k
20 40 60 80 100 120
ous studies. Moreover, the previous studies were only concerned with ex-
amining equilibrium and comparative statics analysis. As no simulation
was provided in the previous studies, it is almost impossible to see how the
multi-country system moves over time. This section simulates the model to
see how the system moves over time and how the motion of the system is
affected when some parameters are changed. This section is organized as
follows. Section 9.2.1 defines the multi-country model with capital accu-
mulation and knowledge creation. Section 9.2.2 examines the case when
all the countries have the same preference. We show that the motion of the
global economy can be expressed by a two-dimensional differential equa-
tions system and we can explicitly determine the dynamic properties of the
global economy. Section 9.2.3 shows that the dynamics of the world econ-
omy with J countries can be described by ( J + 1) -dimensional differential
equations. As mathematical analysis of the system is too complicated, we
demonstrate some of the dynamic properties by simulation when the world
economy consists of three countries. Sections 9.2.4 – 9.2.7 examine re-
spectively effects of changes in each country’s knowledge utilization effi-
ciency and creativity, research policy, the propensity to save, and the
population. The analytical results in Sect. 9.2.3 are proved in Appendix
A.9.1.
Each country has one production sector and one university. The university
is financially supported by the government through taxing the production
sector. Knowledge growth is through learning by doing by the production
sector and R&D activities by the university. In describing the production
sector, we follow the neoclassical trade framework. It is assumed that the
countries produce a homogenous commodity.12 Most aspects of production
sectors in our model are similar to the neo-classical one-sector growth
model.13 There is only one (durable) good in the global economy under
consideration. Households own assets of the economy and distribute their
incomes to consume and save. Production sectors or firms use capital and
labor. Exchanges take place in perfectly competitive markets. Production
sectors sell their product to households or to other sectors and households
sell their labor and assets to production sectors. Factor markets work well;
12 This follows the Oniki-Uzawa trade model and its various extensions with one
capital goods.
13 Burmeister and Dobell (1970).
340 9 Growth and Trade with Capital and Knowledge
factors are inelastically supplied and the available factors are fully utilized
at every moment. Saving is undertaken only by households, which implies
that all earnings of firms are distributed in the form of payments to factors
of production. We omit the possibility of hoarding of output in the form of
non-productive inventories held by households. All savings volunteered by
households are absorbed by firms. We require savings and investment to
be equal at any point of time. The system consists of multiple countries,
indexed by j = 1, ..., J . Each country has a fixed labor force, N j ,
( j = 1, ..., J ). Let prices be measured in terms of the commodity and the
price of the commodity be unity. We denote wage and interest rates by
w j (t ) and r j (t ) , respectively, in the j th country. In the free trade system,
the interest rate is identical throughout the world economy, i.e.,
r (t ) = rj (t ).
For convenience, we term the people working in the production sector
as workers and the people working in the university as scientists. The
population is classified into workers and scientists. We introduce
Behavior of producers
First, we describe behavior of the production sections. We assume that
there are three factors, physical capital, labor, and knowledge at each point
of time t . The production functions are given by
F j (t ) = A j Z (t )K ijα (t )N ijβ (t ),
mj j j
A j > 0 , α j + β j = 1, α j , β j > 0 , j = 1 , L , J ,
9.2 Trade and Growth with Learning-by-Doing and Research 341
K ij (t )
k j (t ) ≡ , τˆ j ≡ 1 − τ j ,
N ij (t )
Behavior of consumers
Each worker may get income from wealth ownership and wages. Con-
sumers make decisions on consumption levels of goods as well as on how
much to save. Let kˆ (t ) stand for the per capita wealth in country j . Each
j
y j (t ) = r (t )kˆ j (t ) + w j (t ), j = 1, L, J , (9.2.2)
from the interest payment rkˆ j and the wage payment w j . The disposable
income is equal to
yˆ j (t ) = y j (t ) + kˆ j (t ). (9.2.3)
c j (t ) + s j (t ) = yˆ j (t ) = rkˆ j (t ) + w j (t ) + kˆ j (t ). (9.2.4)
U j (t ) = c j 0 j (t )s j 0 j (t ), ξ 0 j , λ0 j > 0 , (9.2.5)
ξ λ
c j (t ) = ξ j yˆ j (t ), s j (t ) = λ j yˆ j (t ), (9.2.6)
in which
ξ0 j λ0 j
ξj ≡ , λj ≡ .
ξ 0 j + λ0 j ξ 0 j + λ0 j
j =1 Z (t )
in which δ z (≥ 0) is the depreciation rate of knowledge, and ε qj , τ qj , α rj
and β rj are parameters. We require τ qj , α rj , and β rj to be non-negative.
14 In some studies it is assumed that the research sector consists of two sub-
sectors: a private research sector and a government research sector, for instance,
Park (1998). In Park’s model, the government may create knowledge useful for
defense, space, and environment and the private sector for industrial, agricultural,
and consumption goods. Some overlapping knowledge, like mathematical and sci-
entific knowledge, may be tailored for research as particular activities.
344 9 Growth and Trade with Capital and Knowledge
To interpret Eq. (9.2.8), first let us consider a special case that knowl-
edge accumulation is through learning by doing. The parameters τ ij and
ε ij
δ z are non-negative. We interpret τ ij F / Z as the contribution to knowl-
edge accumulation through learning by doing by country j ' s production
sector. To see how learning by doing occurs, assume that knowledge is a
function of country j ' s total industrial output during some period
t
Z (t ) = a1 F j (θ ) dθ a2 + a3 ,
∫
0
in which a1 ,a2 and a3 are positive parameters. The above equation implies
that the knowledge accumulation through learning by doing exhibits de-
creasing (increasing) returns to scale in the case of a2 < (>) 1 . We inter-
pret a1 and a3 as the measurements of the efficiency of learning by doing
by the production sector. Taking the derivatives of the equation yields
τ ij F j
Z& = ε ij
Z
ε α β
in which τ ij ≡ a1a2 and ε ij ≡ 1 − a2 . The term, τ rj Z rj K rj rj N rj rj , is the con-
tribution to knowledge growth by country j ' s university. It means that
knowledge production of the university is positively related to the capital
stocks, K rj , employed by the university and the number of scientists, N rj .
To interpret the parameter, ε rj , we notice that on the one hand, as the
knowledge stock is increased, the university may more effectively utilize
traditional knowledge to discover new theorems, but on the other hand, a
large stock of knowledge may make discovery of new knowledge difficult.
This implies that ε rj may be either positive or negative. It is reasonable to
assume that the more equipments, books, and buildings, and scientists the
university employs, the more productive it becomes. That is, α rj and β rj ,
are positive.
The universities are financially supported by the governments. In this
model, the governments collect taxes to support the universities. As tax in-
come are used only for supporting the utilities, we have
(r (t ) + δ )K (t ) + w (t )N (t ) = τ F (t ),
kj rj j rj j j j = 1, ... , J . (9.2.9)
9.2 Trade and Growth with Learning-by-Doing and Research 345
s.t.: (r (t ) + δ kj )K rj (t ) + w j (t )N rj (t ) = τ j F j (t ).
α jτ j F j (t ) β jτ j F j (t ) (9.2.10)
K rj (t ) = , N rj (t ) = ,
r (t ) + δ kj w j (t )
where
α rj β rj
αj ≡ , βj ≡ .
α rj + β jr α rj + β rj
If the other conditions remain the same, an increase in the tax rate or
output enables the university to utilize more equipments and to employ
more people. An increase in factor price will reduce the employment level
of the factor.
The total capital stocks employed by the world is equal to the wealth
owned by the world. That is
J J
(9.2.12)
K (t ) = ∑ K (t ) j = ∑ kˆ (t )N
j j .
j =1 j =1
346 9 Growth and Trade with Capital and Knowledge
The world production is equal to the world consumption and world net
savings. That is
J
C (t ) + S (t ) − K (t ) + ∑δ kj K j (t ) = F (t ),
j =1
where
J J J
C (t ) ≡ ∑ c j (t )N j , S (t ) ≡ ∑ s j (t )N j , F (t ) ≡ ∑ F j (t ).
j =1 j =1 j =1
We have thus built the model with trade, economic growth, capital ac-
cumulation, knowledge creation and utilization in the world economy in
which the domestic markets of each country are perfectly competitive, in-
ternational product and capital markets are freely mobile and labor is in-
ternationally immobile.
9.2.2 The Dynamics when the World Has the Same Preference
This section examines a special case when the households in the world
have the identical preference and the depreciation rates are the same
among the economies. We are interested in this case because we can ex-
plicitly determine dynamic properties of the system as shown below. We
require
ξ = ξ j , λ = λ j , δ k = δ kj , α = α j , j = 1, ...., J .
We now show that all the variables in the dynamic system can be ex-
pressed as functions of k1 (t ) and Z (t ) at any point. First, from Eqs. (9.2.1)
we obtain
m
k j = M j Z j k1 , j = 1, ... , J , (9.2.13)
in which
1/ β
A jτ j m j − m1
M j ≡ , mj ≡ .
A1τ 1 β
Country j' s capital intensity of the production function can be ex-
pressed as a unique function of the knowledge and country 1' s capital in-
tensity of the production function. The ratio between any two countries’
capital intensities is related to the two countries’ tax rates and the level of
9.2 Trade and Growth with Learning-by-Doing and Research 347
the knowledge. We determine the rate of interest and the wage rates as
functions of k1 (t ) and Z (t ) as follows
where
α jτ j τˆ jα j
arj ≡ , aij ≡ ,
α jτ j + τˆ jα α jτ j + τˆ jα
β jτ j τˆ j β
brj ≡ , bij ≡ .
β jτ j + τˆ j β β jτ j + τˆ j β
The labor distribution is constant as it is determined by the tax rate and
capital distribution is proportional to the total capital stocks employed by
the country. By k j = K ij / N ij and Eqs. (9.2.16) and (9.2.13), we have
m
K j = M j Z j k1 , j = 1, ..., J , (9.2.17)
K = k1Λ 0 (Z ), (9.2.18)
∑
J
where we use K = j =1
K j and
J
Λ 0 (Z ) ≡ ∑ M j Z
mj
.
j =1
m
From F j = A j Z j K ijα N ijβ and Eqs. (9.2.16) and (9.2.17), we have
F j = aijα A j N ijβ M αj Z
m j +αm j
k1α . (9.2.19)
348 9 Growth and Trade with Capital and Knowledge
∑ {τ }
J
m j + αm j − ε ij α α β α rj m j + ε rj α
ij aijα Aj N ijβ M αj Z k1α + τ rj arj rj M j rj N rj rj Z k1 rj − δ z Z . (9.2.20)
j =1
& (9.2.21)
kˆ j = λw j − (1 − λ − λr )kˆ j .
( ) (9.2.22)
J
K& = λβ k1α ∑τˆ j A jα jα Z j j − λ − τ 1 A1αλ Z m1 k1− β K ,
αm + m
j =1
∑ kˆ j N j and λ ≡ 1 − λ + λδ k .
J
where we use Eqs. (9.2.14) and K = j =1
Kk&1 J m −1
(9.2.23)
K& = + k1 ∑ m1 M j Z j Z& .
k1 j =1
Substituting Eqs. (9.2.22), (9.2.18) and (9.2.22) into Eq. (9.2.23) yields
λβ k1α
( )
J
∑τˆ A α
αm j + m j
k&1 = j j
α
j Z − λ − τˆ1 A1αλZ m1 k1− β k1
Λ0 j =1
J m −1 Λ
(9.2.24)
− k1 ∑ m1 M j Z j .
j =1 Λ0
Summarizing the above results, we obtain the following lemma.
Lemma 9.2.1
Assume that all the households in the world have the same preference. The
motion of the two variables, k1 (t ) and Z (t ), are given by two differential
Eqs., (9.2.20) and (9.2.24). For any given k1 (t ) and Z (t ), r (t ) and
9.2 Trade and Growth with Learning-by-Doing and Research 349
kˆ j (t ) = e ∫
− (1 − λ − λr ) d τ
(
h j + λ ∫ w j (τ ) e ∫
(1 − λ − λr )d τ
dτ , )
j = 1, L , J , (9.2.25)
where h j are constants to be determined by initial conditions. For any
given positive values of Z (t ), k1 (t ) and kˆ j (t ) at any point of time, the
other variables are uniquely determined by the following procedure:
k j (t ), j = 2, L, J by (9.2.13) → N qj , q = i , r , j = 1, L, J by (9.2.16)
→ K j (t ) by (9.2.17) → K qj (t ) by (9.2.16) → yˆ j = (1 + r )kˆ j + w j by
(9.2.20) → c j (t ) and s j (t ) by (9.2.6) → F j = Z j K ijα N ijβ .
m
∑ {τ }
J
m j +αm j −ε ij α α β α rj m j + ε rj α
ij aijα A j N ijβ M αj Z k1α + τ rj arj rj M j rj N rj rj Z k1 rj
j =1
= δzZ ,
( ) (9.2.26)
J
λβ k1α ∑τˆ j A jα jα Z
αm j + m j
− λ − τˆ1 A1αλZ m1 k1− β k1Λ 0 = 0 .
j =1
λ
1/ β (9.2.27)
k1 = Ω10/ β ,
λ
where
β J
Ω 0 (Z ) ≡ ∑τˆ A α
αm j + m j
j j
α
j Z + τˆ1 A1αZ m1 .
Λ0 j =1
Ω(Z ) ≡
∑ {τ }− δ
J
m j +αm j −ε ij −1 α rj m j + ε rj −1 α /β
ij Z Ωα0 / β + τ rj Z Ω 0 rj z = 0, (9.2.28)
j =1
where
α /β
λ
τ ij ≡ τ ij aij A j N ij M j
α β α
> 0,
λ
α rj / β
α α β λ
τ rj ≡ τ rj arj rj M j rj N rj rj > 0.
λ
From Lemma 9.2.1 and the above discussions, we have the following
corollary.
Corollary 9.2.1
The number of equilibrium points is the same as the number of solutions of
Ω(Z ) = 0 , for Z > 0 . For any solution Z > 0 , all the other variables are
uniquely determined by the following procedure: k1 by (9.2.27) → r and
w , j = 1, L, J , by (9.2.14) → kˆ = λw / (1 − λ − λr ) → k , j =
j j j j
2, L, J by (9.2.13) → N qj , q = i , r , j = 1, L, J by (9.2.16) → K j by
(9.2.17) → K qj by (9.2.16) → yˆ j = (1 + r )kˆ j + w j by (9.2.20) → c j and
m
s j by (9.2.6) → F j = A j Z j K ijα N ijβ .
m αrm
xi ≡ − ε i − 1, xr ≡ + ε r − 1,
β β
It can be shown that the dynamics in this case is the same as that of the
model in Sect.9.1. In this case, the dynamic properties of the model have
been examined. The properties are summarized in the following corollary.
Corollary 9.2.2
If xi < 0 and xr < 0 (or xi > 0 and xr < 0 ), the system has a unique sta-
ble (unstable) equilibrium point; and if xi < 0 and xr < 0 ( xi > 0 and
xr < 0 ), the system may have none, one, or two equilibrium points. When
the system has two equilibrium points, the one with higher value of Z is
stable and the other one is unstable.
The previous section examined the dynamic properties when the world
population has an identical preference. It is straightforward to carry out
dynamic analysis as the world economy is actually controlled only by two-
dimensional differential equations. We will not further examine the behav-
ior of the system because we will simulate the model when the households
have different preferences. This section shows that in general case the dy-
namics of the world economy can be expressed by a ( J + 1) − dimensional
differential equations system.
352 9 Growth and Trade with Capital and Knowledge
Lemma 9.2.2
The dynamics of the world economy is governed by the following
(J + 1) − dimensional differential equations system with Z (t ), k1 (t ) and
kˆ (t ), j = 2, L , J , as the variables
j
( )
J
Z& = Λ (k1 , Z ) ≡ ∑ τ ij Z j ij φ j j + τ rj Z rj φ j rj − δ z Z ,
m −ε α ε α
j =1
( {} )
k&1 = Λ1 k1 , kˆ j , Z ≡
J J
1
∑ n j Λ j + λ1 w1 − n0 Rψ − R ∑ n j k j − n0ψ Z Λ
ˆ ,
j =2 j =2 n0ψ k1
( )
kˆ j = Λ j k1 , k j , Z ≡ λ j w j − (1 − λ j − λ j r )kˆ j , j = 2 , ... , J ,
&
We have the dynamic equations for the world economy with any num-
ber of countries. The system is nonlinear and is of high dimension. It is
difficult to generally analyze behavior of the system. We now solve equi-
librium problem. For simplicity, we require δ k = δ kj , j = 1, ..., J . Equa-
tions (A.9.1.1) and (A.9.1.2) now become
k j = φ j (k1 , Z ) = τ kj Z j k1 1
m β /β j
,
w j = φ j (k1 , Z ) = τ wj Z (9.2.29)
m0 j α
k1 wj , j = 1, L, J ,
9.2 Trade and Growth with Learning-by-Doing and Research 353
where
1/ β j
τˆ A α m j − m1 α
τ kj ≡ j j j , mj ≡ , τ wj ≡ τˆ j A j β jτ kj j
τˆ1 A1α1 βj
β1α j
m0 j ≡ m j + α j m j , α wj ≡ .
βj
τ wj Z 0 j k1 wj
m α (9.2.32)
kˆ j = , j = 2 , ..., J ,
λuj − τˆ1α1 A1 Z m1 k1− β1
aij
= 0,
1 1 1 1
∑ (τ τ )− δ
J
α ij β α j /βj α β α rj / β j (9.2.34)
+ τ rjτ kj rj Z rj k1 1
x x
ij kj Z ij k1 1 z = 0,
j =1
in which
xij ≡ m j − ε ij + α ij m j − 1, xrj ≡ ε rj + α rj m j − 1.
15 The value is often used in empirical studies. For instance, Abel and Bernanke
(1998).
356 9 Growth and Trade with Capital and Knowledge
Z
25
20
ΩZ = 0
15
10
Ωk = 0
k1
5 10 15 20 25 30
Fig. 9.2.1. Solutions of Eqs. (9.2.33) and (9.2.34)
As yˆ1 = λ1kˆ1 < 0 , we see that the disposable income is negative, which
means negative consumption in country 1.
We evaluate the other variables at the unique equilibrium point,
k1 = 20.567 and Z = 20.610 , as in Table 9.2.1. The global output is 46.2
and the interest rate is about 6.5 percent. The shares of the global outputs
by the DE, ID and UD are respectively 52 , 23.5 and 24.5 percent. The
population shares of the three economies are respectively 20 , 26.7 and
53.3 percent. The per-worker output levels of the DE, ID and UD are re-
spectively 8.31, 2.78 and 1.43. The differences in labor productivity are
mainly due to the differences in knowledge utilization efficiency. The table
also gives the labor and capital distributions between the sectors in each
country and the capital distribution among the three countries. More than
half of the global capital stocks is employed by the DE. The DE uses more
capital stocks in research than the IE, even though its number of scientists
9.2 Trade and Growth with Learning-by-Doing and Research 357
is less than the number in the IE. The wage rates in the DE, ID and UD are
respectively 5.53 , 1.82 and 0.97 .
Z K F r C
20.610 126.665 46.199 0.065 39.831
Country 1 Country 2 Country 3 National shares
F1 24.026 F2 10.848 F3 11.326 F1 / F 0.520
F1 / N i1 8.310 F2 / N i 2 2.783 F3 / N i 3 1.430 F2 / F 0.235
K1 64.681 K2 30.791 K3 31.193 F3 / F 0.245
K i1 59.465 Ki2 28.939 Ki3 29.881 K1 / K 0.511
K r1 5.216 Kr2 2.132 K r3 1.311 K2 / K 0.243
N i1 2.891 Ni2 3.898 N i3 7.922 K3 / K 0.246
N r1 0.109 Nr2 0.149 N r3 0.078 Kˆ / Kˆ
1
0.649
K̂1 82.265 K̂ 2 24.888 K̂ 3 19.511 Kˆ 2 / Kˆ 0.196
C1 21.937 C2 8.889 C3 9.001 Kˆ / Kˆ
3
0.154
w1 5.530 w2 1.817 w3 0.967 C1 / C 0.551
k̂1 27.422 k̂ 2 6.222 k̂3 2.439 C2 / C 0.223
ŷ1 34.734 ŷ 2 8.444 ŷ3 3.565 C3 / C 0.226
c1 7.313 c2 2.222 c3 1.126
This implies that the system is locally stable. In Fig. 9.2.2, we plot the mo-
tion of the system with the following initial conditions
20
C1 80
18 70 1
0.75 E1
16 60 K̂1 0.5
50 0.25
14
12 40 K̂ 2 -0.25 10 E2 30
20 40 50t
30 -0.5
10
C t t -0.75 E3
10 20C 30 340 50 10 20
2 K̂303 40 50
7
5 w1 25
4
6 c1
20
k̂1 5
3 15 4
2 w2 10 3 c2
k̂2 2
c3
w3 t 10 20 30 40 50
t t
10 20 30 40 50 10 20 30 40 50
k̂3
(g) w j (t ) (h) k̂ j (i) c j (t )
First, we examine the case that all the parameters, except country 1' s
knowledge utilization efficiency, m1 , are the same as in (9.2.35). We in-
crease the knowledge efficiency parameter, m1 , from 0.4 to 0.45. The
simulation results are demonstrated in Fig. 9.2.3. In the plots, a variable
∆x j (t ) stands for the change rate of the variable, x j (t ), in percentage due
to changes in the parameter value from m10 ( = 0.4 in this case) to m1
( = 0.45 ). That is
x j (t ; m1 ) − x j (t ; m10 ) (9.2.36)
∆x j (t ) ≡ ×100 ,
x j (t ; m10 )
where x j (t ; m1 ) stands for the value of the variable x j with the parameter
value m1 at time t and x j (t ; m10 ) stands for the value of the variable x j
with the parameter value m10 at time t . We will use the symbol ∆ with
the same meaning when we analyze other parameters.
As the DE improves its knowledge utilization efficiency, the knowledge
and capital of the global economy are increased; the output level of the
global economy falls initially and then rises. The DE’s output level rises;
the other two countries’ output levels fall initially and then rise. As the rate
of interest rises initially and knowledge rises but not much initially, we see
that the costs of production are high for the IE and UE and their productiv-
ities are not much improved, the two economies’ output levels fall initially.
As time passes, the world accumulates more knowledge and the rate of in-
terest falls, the IE’s and UE’s output levels are increased. We see that in
the long term the DE’s trade balance is improved and the other two
economies’ trade balances slightly deteriorate. In the long term the wage
rates and the levels of per capita consumptions and wealth in the three
economies are all improved. Hence, we conclude that as UE improves its
knowledge utilization efficiency, all the consumers in the globe benefit in
the long term.
We now examine effects of the underdeveloped economy’s knowledge
efficiency upon the global economy. We allow
m3 : 0.1 ⇒ 0.2 .
The effects of the UE’s improvement in knowledge utilization are pro-
vided in Fig. 9.2.3. As in the case when the DE improves its knowledge
utilization efficiency, the knowledge and capital of the global economy are
increased; different from the case when the DE improves its knowledge
utilization efficiency, output level of the global economy rises all the time.
360 9 Growth and Trade with Capital and Knowledge
The UE’s output level rises; the other two countries’ output levels are af-
fected slightly. The rate of interest rises over the time. The DE and IE’s
trade balances are improved and the UE’s trade balance deteriorates. In the
long term the wage rate, the per-capita wealth and consumption level are
increased; the the wage rate, the per-capita wealth and consumption level
of the DE and IE are effected slightly.
It should be noted that as the UE improves its knowledge utilization ef-
ficiency, the economic variables of the UE are improved, but some vari-
ables of the other economies might not be improved. For instance, Figure
9.2.5 illustrates the case that the wage rate and the output level in the IE
are actually reduced. This implies that, for instance, if India and China
more effectively apply knowledge, economies like Taiwan and Korea
might be hurt, even though the US and Japan may benefit
25
20
30 ∆F1 20
15
∆K 15
10
∆Z 20
5
t 10 ∆F2
10
5
∆r
10 20 30 40 50
-5 t t
-10 ∆F 10 20 30 40 ∆F503 10 20 30 40 50
30
30 ∆w1 20 ∆k̂1
30
∆c1
20
20 10
∆k̂ 10 ∆c2
10 ∆w2 10 20 30 ∆k̂
2
40 350 t
t
-10 10 20 30 ∆c403 50 t
10 20 30
∆w350
40 -20 -10
Fig. 9.2.3. The developed economy improves its knowledge utilization efficiency
9.2 Trade and Growth with Learning-by-Doing and Research 361
50 5
12
10
∆F 40 ∆F3 4 ∆r
8 ∆K 30 3
6
20 2
4 ∆Z 10
2 ∆F1 1
10 20 30 40 50 t 10 20 30 ∆F 50 t
40 10 20 30 40 50t
(a) ∆Z (t ), ∆K (t ) and ∆F (t ) (b) ∆F j (t ) (c) ∆r (t )
2
50 50
∆C 3 ∆K̂ 3
1
40 40
0.5 ∆E1
30 30 ∆E2
20 20 10 20 30 40 50 t
10 ∆C1 10 ∆K̂1 -0.5 ∆E3
t -1
10 20
∆C 2
30 40 50 10 20
∆K̂ 240
30 50
50
∆w3 50
∆k̂3 50 ∆c3
40 40 40
30 30 30
20 20 ∆k̂1 20
10 10 10 ∆c1
∆w1 t
10 20 30 40∆w50t 10 20 ∆k̂ 40
30 50 t 10 20 30∆c240 50
2 2
(g) ∆w j (t ) (h) ∆k̂ j (i) ∆c j (t )
0.1
10 20 30 40 50
-0.1
-0.2
-0.3
-0.4
-0.5 ∆F2 = ∆w2
-0.6
wealth levels of the three economies are all increased. The trade balance of
the DE improves and the other two economies deteriorate. It can be seen
that the effects of change in other τ ij or any τ rj are similar.
20
10 ∆F1
15 ∆Z 8
0.5
∆F2 0.25
t
10 ∆K 6
-0.25 50 100 150 200
5 ∆F
4
∆F3 -0.5
2 -0.75
-1 ∆r
50 100 150 200
t 50 100 150 t
200
10 10
8 ∆C1 8 ∆K̂1 0.06
10 10
10
8
∆w1 8 8 ∆c1
∆k̂1 ∆k̂ 2 ∆c2
6
∆w2 6 6
4 4 4
∆c3
2 ∆w3 2
∆k̂3 2
We now study how changes in the research policies affect the global econ-
omy. The DE increases its tax rate as follows: τ 1 : 0.05 ⇒ 0.07 . The DE’s
tax rate is increased from 5 percent to 7 percent. As the DE strengthens
its research policy, the knowledge, global wealth and output level are in-
creased. The rate of interest is reduced. The three economies’ output levels
are increased. The wage rate, total consumption and wealth levels, per-
capita wealth and consumption levels in each economy are increased. The
IE’s trade balance improves and the other two countries’ trade balances de-
teriorate. It should be remarked that the desirable results for the DE to in-
crease its tax for supporting research don’t hold if the tax rate is too high.
9.2 Trade and Growth with Learning-by-Doing and Research 363
For instance, if we increase the tax rate as follows: τ 1 : 0.05 ⇒ 0.5 , then
country 1' s consumption, output level and wealth will fall. Evidently, if
few workers are engaged in economic production, all the knowledge cre-
ated by the DE will only increase the output levels of the other two coun-
tries and the DE itself does not economically benefit.
14 5 ∆F1 1 ∆r
12
10 ∆Z 4
t
8 3
2
∆F2 -1
50 100 150 200
6
4
2
∆K 1
∆F3 t
-2
50 100 150 200 -3
∆F 100
50 150 200
t -1
5 ∆C1 5 ∆K̂1
4 4 ∆K̂ 2 0.08
3 ∆C 2 3
0.06
0.04 ∆E2
2 2 0.02 ∆E3
1 ∆C3 1 ∆K̂ 3 50 100 150 200t
-0.02
∆E1
200 t 200 t
-0.04
50 100 150 50 100 150
-1 -1
2 0.7
3 ∆Z ∆F1 0.6
1 0.5
2
∆K ∆F2 t
0.4
0.3
∆r
1 50 100 150 200
0.2
∆F -1 ∆F3 0.1
50 100 150 200 t -2 50 100 150
t
200
∆C1
2 2
∆K̂1 0.04
1 1
0.02 ∆E1
∆C 2 ∆ K̂
50 100 150 200 t 50 100 150 2 200 t 50 100∆E
150 200t
-1 -1 2
-0.02
-2
∆C3 -2
∆K̂ 3 -0.04 ∆E3
2 2
∆k̂1 2 ∆c1
1 ∆w1 1 1
∆w
150 2 200 t ∆ k̂ t ∆c2 t
50 100 50 100 150 2 200 50 100 150 200
-1 -1 -1
-2
∆w3 -2
∆k̂3 -2 ∆c3
-3
4 t
5
∆K 3 ∆F1 ∆F2 -0.5 50 100 150 200
4
3
∆Z 2 -1
-1.5
1 -2
2
∆F t -2.5
1
-1
50 100 150 200 -3
-3.5 ∆r
50 100 150 200 t
∆F3 -2
4 8
3 ∆C1 ∆C2 6 ∆K̂1 0.1 ∆E1
2
4 0.05
1
t ∆K̂ 2
50 100 150 200
2
50 100 150
t
200
-1
-2 50 100 150 200
t -0.05 ∆E2
-3 ∆C3 -2 ∆E3
∆K̂ 3
(d) ∆C j (t ) (e) ∆K̂ j (f) ∆E j (t )
4 4
3 ∆w1 8
∆k̂1 3 ∆c1
2 ∆w2 6
2
1 4
∆k̂ 2 1 ∆c2
50 100 150 200
t 2
50 100 150 200
t
-1 -1
-2 200 t -2
-3 ∆w3 -2
50 100 150
∆ kˆ3 -3 ∆c3
(g) ∆w j (t ) (h) ∆k̂ j (i) ∆c j (t )
4 ∆F1 200t
∆Z 2 -0.2 50 100 150
3
∆K 1 ∆F2 -0.4
2 -0.6
50 100 150
t
200 -0.8
1
∆F -1 -1
∆r
t ∆F3 -1.2
50 100 150 200 -2
2 ∆C1 6
5 ∆K̂ 3 0.06
50 100
∆C2 t
150 200 4
0.04 ∆E3
0.02
-2 3
∆C3 2 ∆K̂ 2 50 100 150 200t
-4 1 ∆K̂1 -0.02 ∆E2
50 100 150
t
200
-0.04 ∆E1
(d) ∆C j (t ) (e) ∆K̂ j (f) ∆E j (t )
2 ∆w1 6
∆k̂3 2 ∆c1
1 ∆w2 5
4
∆c2 t
50 100 150 200
200 t 3
∆c3
-1
50 100 150
2 ∆k̂1 -2
1 ∆k̂ 2 -4
-2
-3
∆w3 t
50 100 150 200
First, we are concerned with the effects of an increase in the DE’s popu-
lation as follows: N1 : 3 ⇒ 3.5 . The effects are plotted in Fig. 9.2.12. The
knowledge, global wealth and output levels are increased. The rate of in-
terest falls. The total output and consumption levels, total wealth, per cap-
ita consumption levels, and per capita wealth levels of the three economies
16 It has been observed that the effect of population growth varies with the level
of economic development and can be positive for some developed economies.
Theoretical models with human capital predict situation-dependent interactions
between population and economic growth (see, Ehrlich and Lui, 1997; Galor and
Weil, 1999; and Boucekkine et al. 2002).
9.2 Trade and Growth with Learning-by-Doing and Research 367
are all increased in the long term. The trade balance of the DE improves
and the other two economies deteriorate.
25
t
20
∆K
30
25 ∆F1 -0.5 50 100 150 200
15 ∆F 20 -1
15 -1.5
10
10 ∆F2 -2
-2.5 ∆r
5
∆Z 5 ∆F3 t -3
50 100 150 200
t 50 100 150 200
30
25
30
25 ∆K̂1 0.15 ∆E1
20 ∆C1 20
0.1
15 15 0.05
10 ∆C2 10 ∆K̂ 2 t
5 5 -0.05
50 100
∆150
E2 200
15
12.5 ∆w1 12.5
∆k̂1 12.5 ∆c1
10 10
10 ∆k̂ 2
7.5 7.5 7.5
∆c2
5 ∆w2 5
2.5 ∆k̂3
5
2.5
2.5
∆w3 t t ∆c3 t
-2.5 50 100 150 200 -2.5 50 100 150 200 -2.5 50 100 150 200
We now examine the case when the DE’s population changes as fol-
lows: N 3 : 8 ⇒ 9 . The effects are plotted in Fig. 9.2.12. The knowledge,
global wealth and output levels are increased. The rate of interest rises.
The total output, total consumption levels, and total wealth of each econ-
omy are all increased in the long term. The trade balance of the DE and IE
improve and the trade balance of the UE deteriorates.
In the DE and IE, the wage rates, per capita consumption levels and per
capita wealth are all increased; in the UE, the wage rate, per capita con-
sumption level and per capita wealth are all reduced.
368 9 Growth and Trade with Capital and Knowledge
5 10 2
4 ∆Z ∆F 8 ∆F3
3
1.5 ∆r
∆K 6
1
2 4
∆F1 0.5
1 2
t 50 100∆F2150 200
t 50 100 150
t
200
50 100 150 200
(a) ∆Z (t ), ∆K (t ) and ∆F (t ) (b) ∆F j (t ) (c) ∆r (t )
12 12
10 10 ∆K̂ 3 0.1 ∆E1
8 ∆C3 8 0.05 ∆E2
200t
6 6
4 ∆C1 4 ∆K̂1 -0.05
50 100 150
2 2 -0.1 ∆E3
∆C ∆K̂ 2200 t
50 100 2
150 200 t 50 100 150
2 ∆w1
3
2 ∆k̂1
3
2
∆c1
1
∆w2 1
∆k̂ 2
1 ∆c2
200 t t 200t
50 100 150
-1 50 100 150 200 50 100 150
-1 -1
-2
-3 ∆w3 -2
∆k̂3 -2 ∆c3
-3 -3
9.3 Conclusions
Appendix
where
α jτ j τˆ jα j β jτ j
arj ≡ , aij ≡ , brj ≡
α jτ j + τˆ jα j α jτ j + τˆ jα j β jτ j + τˆ j β j
τˆ j β j
bij ≡ .
β jτ j + τˆ j β j
We conclude that the labor distribution is constant as it is determined by
the tax rate and capital distribution is proportional to the total capital
stocks employed by the country.
By k j = K ij / N ij and Eqs. (A.9.1.4), we have
370 9 Growth and Trade with Capital and Knowledge
N ij k j (A.9.1.5)
Kj = , j = 1, ..., J .
aij
Z& = Λ (k1 , Z ) ≡
∑ (τ )
J
β m j − ε ij α β ε α (A.9.1.6)
ij A j N ij j Z K ij j + τ rj N rj rj Z rj K rj rj − δ z Z .
j =1
in which
1 Nj
n0 ≡ , nj ≡ , j = 2 , ..., J .
N1 N1
{ } ( )
Introduce kˆ(t ) ≡ kˆ2 (t ), L, kˆJ (t ) . We see that country 1' s per capita
wealth, kˆ1 (t ), can be expressed as a unique function of the knowledge,
country 1 ’s capital intensity of production function and the other coun-
{ }
tries’ per capita wealth, kˆ(t ) , at any point of time.
From Eqs. (9.2.2) and (9.2.3), we have
yˆ j = (1 + r )kˆ j + w j . (A.9.1.8)
Appendix 371
( )
kˆ j = Λ j k1 , kˆ j , Z ≡ λ j w j − (1 − λ j − λ j r )kˆ j , j = 2 , ..., J ,
& (A.9.1.10)
( ) (A.9.1.13)
J
Z& = Λ(k1 , Z ) = ∑ τ ij Z j ij φ j j + τ rj Z rj φ j rj − δ z Z ,
m −ε α ε α
j =1
where
α −α β α
τ ij ≡ τ ij A j N ij , τ rj ≡ τ rj arj rj aij rj N rj rj N ij rj .
Marshall recognized that if an economic system did not satisfy some con-
stant or decreasing returns postulate, competition itself is not dynamically
stable. He argued that industries in which particular processes exhibit in-
creasing returns to scale must rapidly become monopolized. The contem-
porary economic reality in developed economies is rarely purely competi-
tive or purely monopolistic. Growth theory based on perfect competition
may be proper for revealing complexity of economic growth on highly ag-
gregated - sectorial, interregional, national, international – levels; it tends
to lose validity if one wants to explain driving forces of economic growth
on levels of firms. Because large companies have increasingly – globally
as well as locally - dominated the scene of economic life, it is reasonable
for the contemporary mainstream of growth theory, dubbed as the new
growth theories, to swap the paradigm of monopolistic competition for that
of perfect competition of the neoclassical growth theory. The new trade
theory considers it necessary to integrate nominal rigidities, market imper-
fections and institutional barriers into trade theory. Imperfection competi-
tion in product and factor markets is a key ingredient in the new trade
theories. In contrast to perfect competition, monopoly power permits the
explicit analysis of pricing decisions.
Chapter 9 dealt with issues related to economic growth with endogenous
human capital and knowledge. Although knowledge was treated as an ex-
ogenous variable, the model had a limitation if one wants to know in the
microeconomic level about what are the motives for private companies to
make innovation and for individuals to get educated. For instance, in the
previous chapter, knowledge stock, Z (t ), receives no compensation, and
every individual is assumed to be free to exploit the entire stock of Z (t ).
Although these models are congruous with that technological change
drives economic growth and the knowledge is a nontrivial good, they don’t
explain why profit-maximizing private firms would make efforts to gener-
ate technological changes. The ‘new’ endogenous growth pioneered by
Romer (1986) and Lucas (1988) has attempted to explain technical change
as the outcome of market activity in response to economic incentives. In
374 10 Trade Dynamics with Innovation and Monopolistic Competition
the new growth theory, technological change does not take place in a pre-
determined fashion without any social and economic costs. The new
growth theory has modeled endogenous knowledge accumulation through
many channels, including formal education, on-the-job training, basic sci-
entific research, learning by doing, process innovations, industrial innova-
tions, and product innovations. The crucial assumption that leads to sus-
tainable endogenous growth is the existence of increasing returns to scale
in economic production under monopolistic competition. This chapter pre-
sents some of the key ideas in the approach in international trade theory.
Section 10.1 introduces a dynamic, two-country growth model with trade
in which endogenous technical change results from the profit-maximizing
behavior of entrepreneurs. Section 10.2 is concerned with the role of intel-
lectual property rights (IPRs) in encouraging firms in developed countries
to innovate and in helping developing countries gain access to knowledge
on the global frontier. The section introduces a dynamic general-
equilibrium product-cycle model to analyze the effects of Southern IPRs
on incentives of Northern firms to innovate and to license state-of-the-art
technologies to the South. The quality-ladders model with endogenous in-
novation and licensing integrates licensing into the theory of endogenous
product cycles. Section 10.3 introduces trade costs into North-South en-
dogenous growth model. The model tries to analyze interactions among
factor endowments, trade costs, production location, and growth. Section
10.4 introduces a model of growth and innovation of a small economy.
The small country faces perfectly elastic demand in world markets and
trades at exogenously given prices. If the small economy trades on world
capital markets, it does so at an exogenously given rate of interest. The
R&D activities of the small country does not influence the rate of accumu-
lation of knowledge capital in the world at large. Section 10.5 introduces
another important mechanism of economic growth. We introduce a model
of economic growth with externalities by Nishimura and Shimomura. The
model introduces sector-specific externalities in the Heckscher-Ohlin two-
country general equilibrium model. Section 10.6 concludes the chapter.
Section A.10.1 introduces growth model with a variety of consumer products
for a national economy. The idea is to introduce a variety of consumer goods
into the utility function that parallels the treatment of a variety of intermediate
products in the production function as in the previous section. Section A.10.2
introduces the Aghion-Howitt model of economic growth which explains
Schumpeter’s process of creative destruction. Section A.10.3 studies tech-
nological changes through improving quality of the current products.
10.1 Comparative Advantage with Endogenous Technological Change 375
1 The model is proposed by Grossman and Helpman (1990). Their model is in-
βp X−ε (ω )
π (ω ) = [ p X (ω ) − w a N ] (p F + ~p F~ ),
p1X−ε (ω ) dω
n Y Y
∫0
This equation also implies that varieties originating from the same coun-
try bear the same price. Hence, we can omit ω in p X (ω ). Let n stand for
the number of intermediate inputs produced in Home and Foreign. From
Eqs. (10.1.1) and (10.1.2), we have
1− β (10.1.3)
w
pY = (np 1−ε
X + n p1X−ε )
β / (1−ε )
,
A
αp X = w a N . (10.1.4)
X =
np
βp X−ε
1−ε
+ np 1−ε
(p F + ~p F~ ).
Y Y
(10.1.5)
X X
2 Here, it is assumed that neither the prices of competing products nor the value
of final production varies with p X (ω ).
3 Judd (1985) and Grossman and Helpman (1989).
10.1 Comparative Advantage with Endogenous Technological Change 377
∫e
−[ R (τ ) − R (t )]
π (τ ) dτ = cr (t ),
0
V (t ) = ∫ e − ρ (τ − t ) {log v[ pY (τ ), ~
pY (τ )] + log E (τ )}dτ ,
t
∞ ∞
s.t.: ∫ e −[ R (τ ) − R (t )] E (τ ) dτ ≤ ∫ e −[ R (τ ) − R (t )] w(τ ) dτ + W (t ),
t t
where N is the total labor available in Home and Foreign. We have thus
completed introducing the basic structure of the model. We now examine
its behavior.
As this model does not involve money, it is “free” to choose a time pattern
for one nominal variable. Let us specify the numeraire as follows:
10.1 Comparative Advantage with Endogenous Technological Change 379
1/ ε
a
PY = (n + n~ ) X .
ar (10.1.12)
It is shown by Grossman and Helpman that a necessary condition for
convergence to a steady state with positive R&D in both countries is
1/ ε
~ a~ (10.1.13)
PY = (n + n~ ) ~X .
ar
It is straightforward to check that the relative prices of middle products,
the relative wages, and relative prices of final goods, and expenditure
shares are all constant along the convergent path. Introduce the rate of
growth of the numbers of products and the stock of knowledge
n& (t )
g (t ) ≡ .
n(t )
We see that p X and w grow at the rate of g . From Eq. (10.1.9), cr are
constant. From Eqs. (10.1.5) and (10.1.6), it is also straightforward to
show that X and R& are
n b 1 / α βE 1 βE (10.1.14)
X = ~ ~ , R& =
(
(n + n ) bn + b n
~ ) ~ ,
ε − 1 bn + b n~
~
conducting R&D iff b < b .
Introduce
E n ~
e≡ ~ , ns ≡ ~ , nas ≡ bns + b n~s .
n+n n+n
Using e& / e = E& / E − g and n& s + n& s = 0 , we can show that the motion
of the entire dynamic system is given by two differential equations as fol-
lows
e&
=
βe
+
(1 − β ) s0 e − N − N~ − ρ ,
e α nas α
0 0
~~ (1 − β )e − a ~ (1 − β ) s0 e (10.1.16)
σ& = bN 0 + b N 0 − N 0 + N 0 − .
α α
as
This is an autonomous system of differential equations in e and σ . It is
readily verified that once these two variables are determined at any point
of time, then all the other variables are determined. We now list up some
interesting insights from examining properties of the dynamic system.
Proposition 10.1.1
Stronger relative demand for the final good of the country with compara-
tive advantage in R&D lowers the longer-run share of that country in the
number of middle products and slows long-run growth of the world econ-
omy. In the absence of comparative advantage in R&D, the long-run
growth rate is independent of the relative demand for final goods.
Proposition 10.1.2
An equiproportionate, once-and-for-all increase in the effective labor
forces of both countries accelerate long-run growth.
Proposition 10.1.3
The long-run growth rate is higher the larger is the effective labor force of
the country with comparative advantage in R&D. A larger effective labor
force in the country with comparative disadvantage in R&D may be asso-
ciated with faster or slower growth, depending upon the extent of produc-
tivity differences. In the absence of comparative advantage, long-run
growth is faster the larger is the effective labor force of either country.
10.2 Intellectual Property Rights (IPRs) and Trade 381
means that licensing is the only means by which the South can acquire
Northern top-level technologies.
Consumption7
The economy has a continuum of goods indexed by ω ∈ [0, 1]. Each
good potentially may be improved a continuously infinite number of times,
indexed by qualities j = 0, 1, 2, .... The increments to quality are common
to all products and exogenously given by a parameter λ > 0 . The in-
tertemporal utility function for the representative consumer is given by
∞
U = ∫ e − ρt u (t ) dt ,
0
∫e
− R (t )
E (t ) dt = A(0),
0
is the value of initial asset holdings plus the present value of factor income
and
t ∞
E (t ) = ∫ ∑ p (ω )d (ω ) dω ,
jt jt
0 j =0
Steady-state equilibrium
By nN + nS = 1 and InS = ιnN , we have
386 10 Trade Dynamics with Innovation and Monopolistic Competition
InS (10.2.4)
n N = 1 − nS , ι = .
1 − nS
From Eq. (10.2.5), in the case of N S / nS > a L InS / κ , dnS / dI > 0 and
d 2 nS / dI 2 > 0 hold.
From
VI = wa I , VL = π L / (ρ + I ), π N = E (1 − w / λ ),
π L = E (1 − 1 / λ ),
and Eqs. (10.2.1) and (10.2.2), we express the zero-profit condition in in-
novation and the zero-profit condition in licensing respectively as follows:
w a InS (10.2.6)
E 1 − = wa I (ρ + I ) − L ,
λ κ 1 − nS
1 a (10.2.7)
δ (κ )E 1 − = w a I + L (ρ + I ).
λ κ
From EnS / λ = N S and Eqs. (10.2.4), (10.2.6), and (10.2.7), we find the
relation between I and nS as follows
a
a I + L (ρ + I ) =
κ
1 a I nS N
δ (κ )1 − a I (ρ + I ) − L + S .
λ κ 1 − nS nS (10.2.8)
cycle of its product were shortened, providing it with less time and smaller
returns to cover its transfer costs. Equations (10.2.5) and (10.2.8) contain
only two variables. As illustrated in Fig. 10.2.1 in which LC and VC
curves respectively correspond Eqs. (10.2.5) and (10.2.8), the two equa-
tions determine a unique equilibrium.
LC
*
nS
VC
“Home” here corresponds to the developed North in the literature and “Foreign” to
the developing South.
11 It should be noted that in this type of North-South models, neither land nor
capital is considered in agricultural product. For how to introduce capital and land
into a growth model with economic structure and endogenous knowledge, see
Zhang (2005a).
12 This implies that if τ units are shipped from one country to the other, only
facturing employs both skilled and unskilled labor. Firms in the industry
compete monopolistically in the Dixit-Stiglitz fashion. Manufacturing car-
ries out R&D to create new varieties and produce output of existing ones.
The cost of developing a blueprint is incurred once and unrelated to the
output level of the subsequent production of the variety.13 With a blueprint
ready, the firm proceeds to produce the output of its variety infinitely into
the future. For each variety, blueprint development and output production
are kept within a single, atomistic manufacturing firm.
As in the model by Grossman and Helpman,14 assume that a firm hires
skilled labor only to develop a blueprint and the amount of skilled labor
necessary to create a blueprint is a / N R , where N R is the total number of
blueprints previously developed in the country and a is a constant (equal
in Home and Foreign).15 Firms enter freely into R&D and finance the cost
by issuing equity in the stock market. Equity holders of a firm will receive
the future profits of the firm. Let v denote the value of a firm that locates
its R&D in Home and Foreign. Due to free entry v is equal to the cost of
creating a blueprint, that is
aw (10.3.1)
v = ,
N
where w is the wage rate for skilled labor. Individuals can borrow or lend
freely at an instantaneous interest rate of R . A firm is called a national
firm if it develops a blueprint and produces output in the same country. It
sells its output from a country and makes profits π . The owners of a na-
tional firm obtain an instantaneous return of v& + π . On the other hand, a
loan valued at v yields a return of Rv . Arbitrage in the capital market
implies
v& + π = Rv . (10.3.2)
the cost falls in the number of blueprints created. This formation also implies that
spillovers occur within the country.
16 It is assumed that all stocks of a firm are held by investors from the country
(
P = np1−σ + n~ (τ~
p)
1−σ
)( 1 / 1−σ ) ~
(
p1−σ + n(τp )
, P = n~~
1−σ
)(
1 / 1−σ )
, (10.3.6)
17 As most authors of this type of the trade models, Gao fails to give a proper
19 It is assumed that the two sectors are equally intensive in their use of inter-
mediate inputs in order to ensure the existence of a balanced growth path. Without
this assumption, the importance of one of the two sectors would decline over time.
10.4 Growth and Innovation of a Small Open Country 393
1
D j = ∫ log ∑ qm (ω )xmj (ω ) dω ,
0 m
where xmj (ω ) is the input of quality m of intermediate product ω in the
production of final good j and qm (ω ) is the quality of input. In this sec-
tion, we are only concerned with the innovation specified by (10.4.3).
Assume that the various components are produced with similar constant
returns to scale technologies. Let c x (w1 , w2 ) denote the marginal and aver-
age cost of producing any known intermediate. At equilibrium we have
c x (w1 , w2 ) (10.4.4)
px = ,
α
where p x is the price of the intermediate.
As all intermediates bear the same price, all are demanded to the same
amount by final good producers. It can be shown that the indexes of inter-
mediate inputs in (10.4.3) can be expressed as
D j = AD X j , (10.4.5)
px (10.4.6)
pD = .
AD
It can be seen that from the equations described so far, we can solve the
prices of the primary and produced inputs as functions of the state of tech-
nology, AD , and the prices of the final goods. As world prices remain con-
stant, the price of typical intermediate good and the rewards to the two
primary inputs all grow at a common rate. This rate equals the product of
β (the cost share of intermediates) and the rate of productivity growth
A& / A .
D D
We now assume that R&D requires the input of human capital, but not
unskilled labor. Let a denote the input coefficient in R&D activity. We
have that a / n units of human capital are needed to invent one new prod-
uct per unit of time.21 The free-entry condition v = w1a / n equates the
value of a firm in the nontradables sector to the cost of market entry. Using
V ≡ 1 / nv to represent the inverse of the aggregate value of the stock mar-
ket, we have
1 (10.4.7)
V = .
aw1
Households maximize
∞
U (t ) = ∫ e − ρ (t −τ ) log u[C1 (τ ), C2 (τ )] dτ ,
0
The condition that the return on equity claims equates the sum of the
firm’s dividend rate and the expected rate of capital gain the risk-free in-
terest rate is given by
V& (10.4.10)
+ γ = (1 − α )β ( p1 F1 + p2 F2 )V − r ,
V
where γ is the rate of new product introduction n& / n . In (10.4.10), V& / V
represents the profit rate for a typical producer of intermediates. The equa-
tion thus equates the excess of the dividend rate over the interest rate to the
expected rate of capital loss on shares in the representative firm. Market
clearing implies
a γ + (a11 + a1x a X 1 ) F1 + a1x a X 2 F2 = H ,
where a11 and a X 1 are respectively the per unit inputs of human capital
and aggregate intermediates in the production of good 1, a22 and a X 2 are
respectively the per unit inputs of human capital and aggregate intermedi-
ates in the production of good 2 , and a jx is the input of factor j in the
production of a un it of the aggregate intermediate good X . We have thus
described the dynamics of the model.
Behavior of firms
The level of sector j ' s output is represented by F j (t ). Let K j (t ) and
N j (t ) stand for the capital stocks and labor employed by section j . Fol-
lowing Benhabib et al. (2000), the production function of good j ,
j = 1, 2 , is
F j (t ) = φ j (K j , N j ) K j j N j j , α j , β j > 0 , (10.5.1)
α β
The specifications mean that the two countries have the identical tech-
nologies. We further require
α j + β j + a j + b j = 1.
This implies that technologies are constant returns to scale from the so-
cial perspective but decreasing returns to scale from the private perspec-
tive. If a j = b j = 0 , j = 1, 2 , then the model becomes the standard dy-
namic Heckscher-Ohlin model. Introduce θ j ≡ a j + α j . If θ1 > (<) θ 2 ,
we say that the consumption good is capital (labor) intensive from the so-
cial perspective. On the other hand, if ∆ ≡ α1 β 2 − α 2 β1 > (<) 0 , we say
that the consumption good is capital (labor) intensive from the private per-
spective.
Under (10.5.1) profit maximization of each firm implies
α1 F1 α 2 pF2 β1 F1 β 2 pF2 (10.5.2)
r = = , w= = ,
K1 K2 N1 N2
where r and w are respectively the rate of interest and the wage rate.
Like in Sect. 3.5, it is straightforward to show that if θ1 ≠ θ 2 , then we can
express r and w as unique functions of p , 23 denoted as r ( p ) and w( p ).
It is straightforward to check the following relations
pr ' ( p ) θ1 pw' ( p ) 1 − θ1
= , =− .
r( p) θ1 − θ 2 w( p ) θ1 − θ 2
Households behavior
Assume that the two countries have the same preference. Introduce prof-
its or the remuneration for factor-specific factor of production, Π (t ), as24
23 As in Sect. 3.5, as the two countries have the same technologies and the price
of investment good is equal, the rate of interest and wage rate are equal between
the two countries.
24 According to Benhabib and Nishimura (1998), profits are possible because of
fixed costs of entry. According to Nishimura and Shimomura (2002a), there are
sector-specific factors of production in both sectors and externalities may be nega-
tive. When production technologies are subject to constant to scale from the social
10.5 Growth and Trade with Externalities 397
Π ≡ F1 + pF2 − (w N + r K ).
Consumers’ behavior is described by
∞
C 1−η − ρ t
Max ∫ e dt , 0 < η < 1, ρ > 0 ,
01−η
K& = F1 + pF2 − pC − δ k K =
s.t:
w N + r K + Π − pC − δ k K , (10.5.3)
where δ k is the fixed depreciation rate of capital. The necessary conditions
for optimality are
C −η = λ p , (10.5.4)
Assumption 10.5.1
θ1 < θ 2 , ∆ > 0 and 1 / η > max [1, 1 / η 0 ].
The conditions, θ1 < θ 2 and ∆ > 0 , respectively means that the con-
sumption good is labor intensive from the social perspective but capital in-
tensive from the private perspective. The condition, 1 / η > max [1, 1 / η 0 ], is
guaranteed if η is sufficiently small. The following two theorems are
proved by Nishimura and Shimomura (2002b).
Theorem 10.5.1
Under Assumption 10.5.1, in the long term the price, p , and the world
~
capital, Kˆ (= K + K ) , are uniquely determined. Moreover, there exists a
~
continuum of countries’ capital, K and K , at which both economies are
incompletely specified.
Theorem 10.5.2
Under Assumption 10.5.1 and (ρ + δ k )(α1 − α 2 ) − δ k ∆ < 0 , there exists a
neighborhood of a long-run equilibrium such that from any initial distribu-
~
tion of capital, K and K , in that neighborhood there exists a continuum
of equilibrium paths. Moreover, different equilibrium paths converge to
different long-run equilibria.
novel were the staple of development economics in the 1950s and 1960s.
Indeed, as is relatively well known, the basic insights on which much en-
dogenous growth theory is built are present in Adam Smith’s discussion of
pin making technology.” These comments are acceptable if we are only
limited to the level of ‘rough insights’ or conceptual discussion; but it may
not be right to conclude that Smith’s discussion of pin making technology
already includes the basic insights simply because many insights into
complexity of economic evolution could not be obtained in the 1950s and
1960s, not to mention in Smith’s time. It is also important to cite from Paul
Krugman’s comments about the new growth theory:
[to explain plainly the new economic geography] “requires some funny as-
sumptions both about consumer behavior and about the technology of produc-
tion; but it has the virtue of producing in the end a picture of an economy in
which there are increasing returns, in which one need not get into the fascinat-
ing but messy issues posed by realistic oligopoly.26”
Appendix
M
1/ ε
(A.10.1.1)
ci = ∑ cijε , 0 < ε ≤ 1,
j=i
where cij is household i ’s consumption of goods of type j , M is the
number of types available at the current time. The household i ’s utility is
given by
∞
ci1 − θ − 1 − ρt
Ui = ∫ 0
1−θ
e dt .
To see why the formation of utility function captures the idea that con-
sumers like variety, suppose that cij are measured in a common physical
unit and the quantities consumed of each type are the same, cij = ci / M .
We have
ci1 − θ − 1 M (1 − ε )(1 − θ )/ ε ci1 − θ − 1
= .
1−θ 1−θ
where w and r are respectively the wage rate and rate of interest. The
Hamiltonian associated with consumers’ utility maximization is defined by
(∑ M
cε )
(1 − θ ) / ε
− 1 − ρt M
J =
j = 1 ij
1−θ
e + v w + ra − ∑Pc j ij
.
j =1
∑M Pk cik (A.10.1.2)
cij = M −α / (1 − α ) Pj− 1/ (1 − ε ) .
k =1
∑k = 1 Pk
∫ (P (τ ) − 1)C (τ )e
− r (τ ,t ) (τ − t )
V (t ) = j j dτ ,
0
where
1 τ
r (τ , t ) ≡ r (ω ) dω ,
τ − t ∫t
is the average interest rate between times t and τ . If the interest rate is
constant, then the present-value factor simplifies to e − r (τ − t ) . The equation
shows that the fixed cost η for discovering a new good can be recouped
only if Pj exceeds the marginal cost of production for at least part of the
time after date t .
We assume free entry into the business of being an inventor. This im-
plies that anyone can pay the R&D cost η to secure the present value. If
V (t ) > η , then an infinite amount of resources would be channeled into
R&D at time t , hence V (t ) > η cannot hold at equilibrium. If V (t ) < η ,
then no resources would be devoted at time t to R&D. If r is constant, the
free-entry condition is
1−ε ∞
η ≥ V (t ) = ∫C e
− r (τ − t )
dτ ,
ε
j
t
C rηε (A.10.1.6)
Cj = = .
M 1−ε
If both C j and population are constant, then cij / M must also be con-
stant; hence the growth rate of ci / M must be equal to zero. Equation
(A.10.1.5) yields
C& M& ε (A.10.1.7)
= = (r − ρ ), θ + ε ≠ 1.
C M θ + ε −1
It is assumed θ + ε > 1. This assumption guarantees that the growth rate
of C is positively proportional to r − ρ . We will not further analyze be-
havior of the model because, as shown by Barro and Sala-i-Martin (1995:
A.10.2 The Schumpeterian Creative Destruction 403
Sect. 6.2), the model does not provide new insight, given the growth model
with variety of products defined in Sect. 10.2. Further analysis is referred to
Barro and Sala-i-Martin.
w
nt = N − xt = N − φ t .
At
Solving the above equation with wt / At as the variable yields
wt (A.10.2.5)
= φ (nt ) ,
At
h(n)
450
h(n * )
n* n
Fig. A.10.2.1. A steady state in the Aghion-Howitt model
29 This section is based on Barro and Sala-i-Martin (1995, Chap. 7) and Grossman
which implies that the quality grades within a sector are perfect substitutes
as input to production.
Assume that goods of quality 1 can be produced by anyone. The re-
searcher responsible for each quality improvement in sector j retains a
monopoly right to produce the j th intermediate good at that quality level.
In particular, if the quality rungs k = 1, ..., κ j have been reached, then the
k th innovator is the sole source of intermediate goods with the quality
level q k . The intermediate good entails a unit marginal cost of production
A.10.3 Growth with Improvements in Quality of Products 409
∂N i ακ
= αAN i1 − α q j X ijkα − 1 .
∂X ijk
If units of the leading-edge good are priced at Pjκ j and if no other qual-
ity grades of good j are available, then ∂Fi / ∂X ijk = Pjκ j . Hence, the im-
plied demand function from the aggregate of final- goods producers is
1 / (α − 1)
Pjκ j (A.10.3.2)
X ijk = N.
αAqακ j
As the leading-edge producer acts as a monopolist in this environment,
the monopolistic pricing is given by
1
Pjk j = P = .
α
The monopoly price is thus constant over time and across sectors. Sub-
stituting P = 1 / α into Eq. (A.10.3.2) yields
1 / (α − 1) (A.10.3.3)
1
X ijk = 2 ακ j N.
α Aq
In the demand functions, only κ j are changeable. As κ j changes over
time in each sector, X ijk vary over time and across sectors.
We are now concerned with situations that goods from quality rungs be-
low κ j are also available for production in sector j . We neglect the pos-
sibility that the κ j th innovator was also the (κ j − 1) th (and below) inno-
vator. If the leading-edge producer charges the monopoly price and if this
price is high enough, then the producer of the next lowest grade will pro-
410 10 Trade Dynamics with Innovation and Monopolistic Competition
∑
κj
duce to obtain non-negative profits. By X ij = k =0
q k X ijk , each unit of
the leading-edge good is equivalent to q > 1 units of the next best good;
thus if the highest grade is priced at Pjκ j , then the next grade good could
be sold at most at the price Pjκ j / q , the one below that at the price
Pjκ j / q 2 and so on. If Pjκ j / q is less than the unit marginal cost of produc-
tion, then the next best grade (and all of the lower quality grades) cannot
survive. As Pjκ j = 1 / α , the next best grade and all of the lower quality
grades are priced at most 1 / αq , 1 / αq 2 …. If 1 / αq is less than one, then
the next best producer cannot compete against the leader’s monopoly
price. Therefore, αq > 1 implies that monopoly pricing will prevail. If
αq ≤ 1, then the providers of intermediate goods of a given type engage in
Bertrand price competition. In this case, the quality leader employs a limit-
pricing strategy Pjκ j = q so as to make it just barely unprofitable for the
next best quality to be produced. Because the condition for limit pricing to
prevail αq ≤ 1, Pjκ j = q ≤ 1 / α = monopoly pricing.
When Pjκ j = q prevails, the total quantity produced is
1 / (α − 1)
q
X ijk = N.
ακ j
αAq
This equation and Eq. (A.10.3.3) show that if αq ≤ 1, the quantity pro-
duced under limit pricing is at least as large as the amount that would have
been produced under monopoly. In the remainder of this section, we re-
quire αq > 1. That is, the monopoly prevails. The case of αq ≤ 1 can be
similarly discussed. We thus can neglect any goods of less than leading-
edge quality and rewrite Eq. (A.10.3.1) as
N
Fi = AN i1 − α ∑ q
ακ j
X ijακ j .
j =1
1 − α 2 / (α − 1) κ jα / (α − 1) (A.10.3.5)
π jκ j = NA1/ (α − 1) α q .
α
This profit is continued – over the interval T jκ j = tk j + 1 − t k j - from the
time of the κ j th quality improvement, tκ j , until the time of the next im-
provement by a competitor, tκ j + 1 . If the interest rate, r , is constant, then
the present value evaluated at tκ j of the profit from the κ j th quality im-
provement is
V jκ j =
[
π jκ j 1 − exp(− rT jκ j ) ].
r
Since π jκ j are known, we now determine T jκ j to finally determine
V jκ j .
Let Z jκ j stand for the flow of resources in terms of F expended by the
aggregate of potential innovators in sector j when the highest quality-
ladder number reached in that sector is κ j . Assume that the probability,
p jκ j . per unit of time of a successful innovation is related to Z jκ j and κ j
as follows
p jκ j = Z jκ j φ (κ j ),
412 10 Trade Dynamics with Innovation and Monopolistic Competition
where φ ' (κ j ) < 0 implies that as project becomes more complicated, the
probability of success in research declines. Define G (τ ) the cumulative
probability density function for T jκ j , that is, the probability that T jκ j ≤ τ .
The change in G (τ ) with respect to τ represents the probability per unit of
time that the innovation occurs at τ . An innovation at τ implies that it
had not occurred earlier, an outcome that has probability 1 − G (τ ). Ac-
cording to the definitions
dG
= [1 − G (τ )] p jκ j .
dτ
Assume that p jκ j and Z jκ j do not vary over time between innovators in
a sector. As G (0 ) = 0 , we solve
(
G (τ ) = 1 − exp − p jκ j τ . )
The propensity density for T jκ j is then given by
g (τ ) = G ' (τ ) = p jκ j exp − p jκ j τ .( )
By this equation, we can compute the expected present value evaluated
at tκ j of the profit from the κ j th quality improvement
p jκ j π jκ j
( ) ∫ (1 − exp(− rτ ))exp(− p )
∞
E V jκ j = jκ j τ dτ =
r 0
, (A.10.3.6)
r + p jκ j
( )
Π jκ j = p jκ j E V jκ j + 1 − Z jκ j =
φ (κ j )NA1/ (α − 1) (1 / α − 1)α 2 / (α − 1)q (κ j + 1)α / (α − 1) (A.10.3.7)
Z jκ j − 1 .
r + p jκ j + 1
(A.10.3.8)
r + p jκ j + 1 = φ (κ j )NA1/ (α − 1) − 1α 2 / (α − 1)q j
1 (κ + 1)α / (α − 1)
.
α
There are two forces φ (κ j ) (meaning that innovations are increasingly
(κ )
+ 1 α / (α − 1)
difficult, with φ ' < 0 ) and q j (reflecting that the expected reward
from an innovation is increasing in κ j ) in the equation. If the first force
dominates, then more advanced sectors tend to grow relatively; and vice
versa. If the two forces exactly offset, then all sectors will tend to grow at
the same rate. To simplify the analysis, we specify φ (κ j ) as
( )
− κ j + 1 α / (α − 1)
(A.10.3.9)
φ (κ j ) =
q
, ζ > 0.
ζ
This formulas simplifies the free entry condition (A.10.3.8) as follow
NA1/ (α − 1) 1 2 / (α − 1)
r+ p= − 1α ,
ζ α
where p = p jκ j + 1 denotes that p jκ j + 1 is invariant in κ j . This equation
gives the probability of an innovation per unit of time as
NA1/ (α − 1) 1 2 / (α − 1) (A.10.3.10)
p= − 1α − r.
ζ α
If r is constant, then p is also constant. If we substitute the above
equation for r + p into Eq. (A.10.3.6), we find the market value of the
κ j th innovation as
( )
E V jκ j = ζ q
κ jα / (α − 1)
.
414 10 Trade Dynamics with Innovation and Monopolistic Competition
p (κ j + 1)α / (α − 1) 1 / (α − 1) 1 2 / (α − 1)
Z jκ j = = q NA − 1α − rζ ,
φ (κ j ) α
where we use Eqs. (A.10.3.9) and (A.10.3.10). The aggregate of R&D
spending, denoted by Z , is
J
1 (A.10.3.11)
Z ≡ ∑Z jκ j = Qqα / (α − 1) NA1/ (α − 1) − 1α 2 / (α − 1) − rζ .
α
j =1
As F , X , V , and Z are all constant multiples of Q , they have the
same growth rate
g F = g X = gV = g Z = g Q . (A.10.3.12)
ακ j / (1 − α ) ακ j / (1 − α )
∑
N
In Q = j =1
q , the term q does not change if no innova-
( )
α κ + 1 / (1 − α )
tion occurs in sector j , but changes to q j if an innovation oc-
curs. The proportionate change in this term due to an innovation is
qα / (1 − α ) . Since p is the same for all the sectors, the expected proportion-
ate change in Q per unit of time is
∆Q
E = p (qα / (1 − α ) − 1).
Q
We assume that N is large enough to treat Q as differentiable, and thus
we have g Q ≈ E (∆Q / Q ). With this equation and Eq. (A.10.3.10), we have
NA1/ (α − 1) 1 (A.10.3.13)
− r (qα / (1 − α ) − 1).
2 / (α − 1)
gQ = − 1α
ζ α
Hence, to determine the growth rates, we have to find conditions for de-
termining the rate of interest. We now turn to behavior of households to
close the model.
We now examine behavior of households. Each household maximizes
A.10.3 Growth with Improvements in Quality of Products 415
∞
c1 − θ − 1 − ρ t
U = ∫ e dt ,
0 1 − θ
where c is consumption per person and population growth rate is zero.
The key condition for this study from household optimization is
r−ρ
gC = ,
θ
where C is the aggregate consumption.
The economy’s overall resource constraint is
C = F − X − Z.
g=
(q α / (1 − α )
[ ]
− 1) (N / ζ )A1/ (α − 1) (1 / α − 1)α 2 / (α − 1) − ρ
.
(A.10.3.14)
1 + θ (qα / (1 − α ) − 1)
We assume that the parameters are such that g > 0 so that the free-entry
condition holds with equality and r > g so that the transversality condi-
tion is satisfied. We have thus determined the rate of interest and the
growth rate.
We have thus closed the model. The single state variable is now Q .
Given an initial value Q(0), by Eq. (A.10.3.14) and g = g F
= g X = gV = g Z = g Q = g C , we determine the growth rates as well as the
variables at any point of time. Further analysis of the model is referred to
Barro and Sala-i-Martin (1995: Chap. 7).
11 Growth, Money and Trade
Money, like blood in human body, affects and is affected by almost all as-
pects of the economic system. Forms of its existence and functions can ex-
hibit a great variety, depending on, for instance, technology, economic de-
velopmental stages, institutional structures, and man’s attitude towards the
future. Money not only provides services of the present but also plays the
role of a connector of the present and the future. Many of the most intrigu-
ing and important questions in dynamic economic analysis involve money.
The dynamic trade models so far in this book omit monetary issues, by ex-
plicitly or implicitly assuming that transactions on the economy’s real side
can be carried out frictionlessly without money.1 Introduction of money
into a non-monetary economy may alter results obtained within a non-
monetary environment.2 We have developed different models of interna-
tional trade. Nevertheless, we neglect possible role of the stock of fiat
money and of its rate of change in each trading country. As mentioned in
Chap. 5, Mundell (1960, 1963) and Fleming (1962) introduced the IS-LM
analysis of a closed economy to an open one. Nevertheless, the IS-LM
analysis is static. This chapter studies monetary issues in dynamic frame-
works.
It is generally agreed that modern analysis of dynamic interaction of in-
flation and capital formation begins with Tobin’s seminal contribution in
1965. Tobin (1965) deals with an isolated economy in which “outside
money3” competes with real capital in the portfolios of agents within the
framework of the Solow model. In Tobin’s approach, a monetary economy
has a real sector exactly like that in the Solow growth model, so that the
monetary nature of the model depends on how money is introduced into
the model. A monetary economy is characterized by that prices are ex-
pressed in money, transactions require money, and financial wealth can be
held in the form of money or financial instruments competing with money.
In the Tobin model, money is a liability of the public sector. As a depositor
of purchasing power money can be held by private agents as an alternative
form of wealth to physical capital stock. Different from a barter economy
as described by the Solow model, the Tobin model involves a problem of
deciding the optimal composition of wealth at every instant. This chapter
addresses similar issues to those in the Tobin model, but in context of in-
ternational economics. We also propose some micro foundations for
household behavior.
Mundell (1968: Chap. 18) proposes a model of international transmis-
sion effects of monetary and fiscal policy shocks in a two-country version
of what is now known as the Mundell-Fleming model. The model shows
that under floating exchange rates, positive monetary policy innovations
tend to have a “beggar-thy-neighbor” effect, raising domestic output and
reducing foreign output through the effects of real depreciation. On the
other hand, fiscal policy shocks tend to increase output in both countries.
Extended versions of the model have been frequently used to study prob-
lems of international macroeconomic policy coordination. But it has been
pointed that the Mundell-Fleming model (and many of its extensions)
failed to specify the underlying preferences and technology. As pointed out
by Obstfeld and Rogoff (1998), to understand short-run macroeconomics
in the open economy, it is important to move beyond the Mundell-Fleming
model toward a dynamic, utility-maximizing framework, where long-run
budget constraints are satisfied.
This chapter introduces some dynamic trade models with money and
exchange rates. Section 11.1 introduces Kemp’s monetary two-sector
growth model of an open small economy. The model examines how the
rate of domestic monetary expansion may affect the rate of change of the
domestic price level and relative attractiveness of physical assets and
money as repositories for saving, as well as the relative demands for con-
sumption and investment goods and the relative import-export demands for
those goods. Section 11.2 studies a small-country monetary economy with
money in the utility function (MIUF) approach. Section 11.3 examines a
small-country monetary economy with cash-in-advance (CIA) approach.
3 Outside money is the part of money stock which is issued by the government.
11.1 A Monetary Growth Model for a Small Open Economy 419
d (PM ) (11.1.2)
Y =F + ,
dt
where P is the price of money in terms of the consumption good (the re-
ciprocal of the domestic cost of living). It is assumed that a fixed propor-
tion, 1 − s , of disposable income is consumed. The value of investment is
pK& = F − (1 − s )Y .
Insert Eq. (11.1.2) in the above equation
pK& = sNf − (µ + π )sˆPM , (11.1.3)
φ (k , π , µ , p ) ≡ M d (sˆNf + (µ + π )sˆPM , r (k , p ) − π ).
11.2 A Small Open-Country Economy with the MIUF Approach 421
The money in the utility function (MIUF) approach was used initially by
Patinkin (1965), Sidrauski (1967a, 1967b) and Friedman (1969). In this
approach, money is held because it yields some services and the way to
model it is to enter real balances directly into the utility function.6
Sidrauski (1967a) made a benchmark contribution to monetary economics,
6 See Eden (2005: Chap. 2) for the reasons why money is introduced into the
utility function.
422 11 Growth, Money and Trade
sf
nsˆΦ + n
pk
k
Fig. 11.1.1. Existence of a unique equilibrium
What differentiates this product is the fact that, in line with Patinkin’s presenta-
tion of the neoclassical theory of money, and with the classical Fisherian theory
of saving, it is based on an explicit analysis of individual’s saving behavior,
viewed as a process of wealth accumulation aimed at maximizing some in-
tertemporal utility function.7
7 Sidrauski (1967a).
8 Superneutrality of money means that the growth rate of money has no effect
on the real equilibrium.
11.2 A Small Open-Country Economy with the MIUF Approach 423
The main lessons were thus already implicit in the work of Tobin and
Sidrauski. For those who can bring themselves to accept the single-consumer,
finite-horizon, maximization model as a reasonable approximation to economic
life, superneutrality is a defensible presumption. All others have to be ready for
a different outcome.
Rather than following the Ramsey approach, this section introduces money
into the utility function proposed this book to show interactions between
money and economic growth.
9 For instance Sachs (1981, 1982), Hodrick (1982), and Obstfeld and Stockman
(1985).
10 See Turnovsky (2000: Chap. 11).
11 To solve this unrealistic assumption of the model, an alternative approach is
standard monetary models of small open economies (see, for instance, Kouri,
1974; Dornbusch and Fischer, 1980; Obstfeld, 1981; and Obstfeld and Rogoff,
1998).
424 11 Growth, Money and Trade
it can influence neither the foreign currency price of the consumption good
nor the world bond rate. The exchange rate is allowed to float freely by the
monetary authority. As foreigners do not hold domestic money, the ex-
change rate adjusts to maintain equality between the real money supply
and domestic real money demand. Perfect foresight is assumed. The for-
eign price of traded goods is given in the world market. The domestic resi-
dents may hold two assets, domestic money and a traded world bond.13 We
neglect transport cost, customs, or any other possible impediments to trade.
We have perfect mobility of goods. For each good the law of one price
holds. We have absolute purchasing power parity (PPP), which means that,
measured in the same currency, the same basket of goods costs the same at
home and abroad. Thus
~
P(t ) = E (t )P (t ),
~
where P(t ) is the domestic price level, P (t ) ( = 1 ) is the foreign price level
measured in foreign currency, and E (t ) is the exchange rate. The assump-
tion of the PPP implies the following relation
π (t ) = π~ + e(t ), (11.2.1)
and fixed. We assume that the government’s inflation tax, e(t )m(t ), is
spent upon unproductive public services. The real disposable income is
given by
yˆ (t ) = f + a(t ) + (i (t ) − π (t ))b(t ) − π (t )m(t ), (11.2.3)
where
M EB B
a ≡ m + b, m ≡ , b≡ = ~.
P P P
The budget constraint is given by
(1 + i(t ) − π (t ))m(t ) + c(t ) + s(t ) = yˆ (t ).
Insert the definition of ŷ (t ) in the budget constraint
i (t )m(t ) + c(t ) + s(t ) = ya (t ) ≡ f + (1 + i (t ) − π (t ))b(t ). (11.2.4)
We assume that at each point of time consumers’ preferences over
money, consumption and saving can be represented by the following utility
function
U (t ) = m ε 0 (t )c ξ 0 (t ) s λ0 (t ), ε 0 , ξ 0 , λ0 > 0 .
Consumers’ problem is to choose current consumption, and savings in
such a way that utility levels are maximized. Maximizing U (t ) subject to
the budget constraints yields
im = εy a , c = ξy a , s = λy a , (11.2.5)
where
1
ε ≡ ρε 0 , ξ ≡ ρξ 0 , λ ≡ ρλ0 , ρ ≡ .
ε 0 + ξ 0 + λ0
The real wealth changes as follows15
( ~
)
c(t ) + m& (t ) + b&(t ) = T (t ) + i (t ) − π~ (t ) b(t ) − τ (t ) − π (t )m(t ).
where we also use Eqs. (9.4.1) and (9.4.2). This equation is identical to the budget
constraint in the representative agent model for a small open economy in
Turnovsky (2000: 352). We see that given the assumptions of PPP and UIP, the
426 11 Growth, Money and Trade
(~
y a (t ) = f + 1 + i b(t ).) (11.2.7)
~
Substituting i (t ) = i + π (t ) and Eq. (11.2.7) into im = εya yields
~
( ~
)
m& = Φ (m , b ) ≡ − εf − 1 + i εb + i + µ m , ( ) (11.2.8)
( ~
)
b& = λf + 1 + i λb − b − m − Φ (m , b ), (11.2.9)
~
(
real rates of return on holding bonds and money are, respectively, i − π~ and )
− π = − (π~ + e ).
11.2 A Small Open-Country Economy with the MIUF Approach 427
ε
ε0 ≡ λ − ~ .
i +µ
~
To guarantee m > 0 and b ≥ 0 , we should require 1 / 1 + i > ε 0 ≥ 0 , ( )
that is
1 ε ε (11.2.11)
~ +~ >λ≥ ~ .
1+ i i +µ i +µ
~
If i is small, then the left-side inequality is satisfied as the propensity
~
( )
to save is less than unit. For λ ≥ ε / i + µ , we see that the propensity to
hold money should be low. In the remainder of this section, we require
(11.2.11).
The two eigenvalues, φ1, 2 , are
1 db ε 0µ
= > 0,
[ ~
b dµ 1 − ε 0 1 + i ε 0 ( )]
1 dm
=
~
[(
1+ i λ −1 ) ](~i + µ ) ,
m dµ [ ~
1 − ε0 1 + i ( )](~i + µ ) 2
428 11 Growth, Money and Trade
~
( 2
)
where ε 0 µ ≡ ε / i + µ > 0. As the inflation rate rises, households tend to
hold more bonds and the sign of dm / dµ is the same as that of
( ~
) ~
1 + i λ − 1. From the definitions of i and λ , it is reasonable to require the
( ~
)
term, 1 + i λ − 1, to be negative. Hence the real money balance is reduced.
At equilibrium, we have µ = π = e . The domestic currency is depreciated.
From a = b + m and c = ξa / λ , we have
da a dc
= =
~
(
1 + i λm )
> 0.
[ (
~ ~
dµ c dµ 1 − ε 0 1 + i i + µ )]( )
The real wealth and consumption are increased.
( )
(ε 0 ~i + ε 02 ) ~i + µ
−
~
(
2 µε + (ξ − µλ ) i + µ
) m
~ .
ε ( ~
i +µ )
2
1 − ε 0 1+ i ( )
The effects on the real wealth and consumption are ambiguous.
11.2 A Small Open-Country Economy with the MIUF Approach 429
Section 11.2 introduced money into the utility and production functions.
With regard to the MIUF and money in production function (MIPF) ap-
proaches, Cass and Shell (1980) objected
18 The environment is the same as in Sect. 11.2. Some aspects of the model are
also referred to Palivos and Yip (1995, 1997a, 1997b), Friedman and Hahn (1990),
and Gali and Monacelli (2005).
19 For instance, Anderson and Takayama (1978, 1981), and Batra and
Ramachandran (1980).
20 Instead of exogenously fixed output levels, we may assume that product is
produced by combining labor and output. It is not difficult to consider this case by
referring to the factor-immobile models in Chap. 2. As this section illustrates how
money can be introduced a two-sector trade model, we accept this simplification.
It should be noted that Matsuyama (1988) proposes a two-goods trade model in
the OLG framework. See also Persson and Svensson (1985), Galor and Lin
(1994), and Backus et al. (1994).
21 We assume that foreigners don’t hold domestic money.
22 The assumption that the government’s role is only to keep the money growth
cording to which the money stock evolves over time is deterministic and
known to all agents. With µ being the constant net growth rate of the
money stock, M (t ) evolves over time according:
M& (t ) = µM (t ), µ > 0 .
where
yˆ m M B aˆ τˆ
yˆ ≡ , m≡ , b≡ , a≡ , τˆ ≡ m .
pE pE pE pE pE
literature on money and growth (for instance, Orphanides and Solow, 1990; Mar-
quis and Reffett, 1995; and Mino and Shibata, 1995).
432 11 Growth, Money and Trade
23 This form is more general than the one applied in Stockman (1981) and the
one by Lucas and Stokey (1987). See also Laird and Yeates, 1990; Mayor and
Pearl, 1984; and Palivos et al. (1993).
11.2 A Small Open-Country Economy with the MIUF Approach 433
where we use
B&
= πb + b& .
pE
(
Inserting Eq. (11.3.11) in the definition of y , we have
434 11 Growth, Money and Trade
(
y = FE + (1 + τ ) pFI + a + µm + b& + τp(c I − FI ).
(
Insert (1 + τ )(1 + χ I π ) pcI = ξ I y into this equation
(
[
y = ξ FE + (1 + τ ) pFI + a + µm + b& − τpFI , ] (11.3.12)
where
−1
τξ I
ξ ≡ 1 − > 1.
(1 + τ )(1 + χ I π )
(
Substituting s = λ y in (11.3.6) and Eq. (11.3.12) into Eq. (11.3.7)
yields
( )
a& = λξ FE + pFI + µm + b& − (1 − λξ )a . (11.3.13)
where
λξ (FE + pFI ) − (1 − λξ − λξµ )m
b0 ≡ ,
1 − λξ
The problem has a unique solution and the solution, b(t ), approaches its
equilibrium value, b0 , in the long term. The dynamic system has a unique
stable equilibrium. In summary, we have the following proposition.
11.2 A Small Open-Country Economy with the MIUF Approach 435
Proposition 11.3.4
Assume b0 > 0 . The dynamic system has a unique solution. The motion of
all the variables are explicitly given by the following procedure: b(t ) by
(
(11.3.5) → m = M / p E → a = m + b → y by (11.3.12) → c E , c I and s
by (11.3.5) → R by (11.3.9).
Effects of tariff
By Eq. (11.3.15), we have b = b0 in equilibrium, where
b0 ≡
(FE + pFI + µm )
− (FE + pFI + µm ) − m .
1 − λξ
Taking derivatives of this function with respect to τ yields
db λ (FE + pFI + µm ) ξ 2ξ I
= > 0.
dτ (1 − λξ )2 (1 + τ )2 (1 + χ I π )
As the tariff on importables is increased, the bonds in terms of export-
(
ables are increased. From a = m + b , a = s = λy , and Eq. (11.3.6), we
obtain
(
da dy db
=λ = > 0,
dτ dτ dτ
( (
1 dc E 1 dy 1 dc I 1 dy 1
= ( > 0, = ( − .
c E dτ y dτ c I dτ y dτ 1 + τ
The wealth and consumption level of exportables are increased; but the
effect on importables is ambiguous.
Effects of prices
We now examine effects of changes in prices. As the equilibrium values
are determined as a function of the relative price, it is sufficient for us to
be concerned with p . It is straightforward to show that the effects on the
key variables are given as follows
436 11 Growth, Money and Trade
(
db λξFI da dy db
= > 0, =λ = > 0,
dp 1 − λξ dp dp dp
(
1 dcE 1 dy 1 dc I λξFI 1
= ( > 0, = − < 0,
cE dp y dp c I dp λξ (FE + pFI ) + λξµm p
Effects of changes in χ I
We now examine what will happen to the system when the household
has to hold more money for purchasing one unit of importables. The ef-
fects are given as follows
db
=−
(FE + pFI + µm )ξ 2τξ I π < 0 ,
dχ I (1 − λξ )2 (1 + τ )(1 + χ I π )2
(
da dy db
=λ = < 0,
dχ I dχ I dχ I
( (
1 dcE 1 dy 1 dcI 1 dy π
= ( < 0, = ( − < 0.
c E dχ I y dχ I c I dχ I y dχ I 1 + χ I π
Effects of output of exportables
The effects of change in the output level of exportables are given as fol-
lows:
(
db da dy λξ
= =λ = > 0,
dFE dFE dFE 1 − λξ
(
1 dc E 1 dcI 1 dy
= = ( > 0.
c E dFE c I dFE y dFE
All the key variables are increased as the output is increased.
Suppose that each country has two outside assets: fiat money and physical
capital. We assume that each country’s money is a nontradeable asset. Let
Pj (t ) stand for nominal price of the good in country j ' s currency. In each
country money is introduced by assuming that a central bank distributes at
11.4 A Multi-Country Growth Model with the MIUF Approach 439
M& j (t ) = µ j M j (t ), µ j > 0 .
Let M j (t ) and µ j stand for respectively the nominal money stock per
household and the constant rate of monetary expansion in country j . The
government expenditure in real terms per capita, τ j (t ), is given by
M& j (t ) µ j M j (t ) (11.4.1)
τ j (t ) = = = µ j m j (t ),
Pj (t ) Pj (t )
F j (t ) country j ’s output;
w jm (t ) the wage rate per unity of working time of sex m in country j .
Behavior of producers
As in Sect. 7.2, the marginal conditions are given by
r + δ kj = f j' (k j ), w jm (t ) = h jm w j (t ), (11.4.5)
w j (t ) ≡ f j (k j ) − k j f j' (k j ).
Behavior of consumers
Let kˆ j (t ) stand for the per-family physical wealth in country j . Country
j ’s per-family disposable income in real terms, yˆ j (t ), in country j is
At each point of time, a family would distribute the total available budget
among money holding, m j (t ), savings, s j (t ), and consumption of goods,
c j (t ). The budget constraint is given by
(1 + r (t ))m j (t ) + c j (t ) + s j (t ) = yˆ j (t ). (11.4.7)
Let T0 denote the total available time. The time constraint requires that
the amounts of time allocated to each specific use add up to the time avail-
able
T jm (t ) + Tˆjm (t ) = T0 . (11.4.8)
≡ (1 + r )kˆ j + h jT0 w j + τ j ,
where h j ≡ h j1 + h j 2 .
At each point of time, households decide the four variables subject to
the disposable income. We assume that utility level, U j (t ), is dependent
on the leisure times, Tˆj1 (t ) and Tˆj 2 (t ), the consumption of commodity,
c j (t ), and savings, s j (t ), as follows
where
ε j ≡ ε 0 j ρ j , σ j1 ≡ σ 0 j1 ρ j , σ j 2 ≡ σ 0 j 2 ρ j , ξ j ≡ ξ 0 j ρ j ,
1
λ j ≡ λ0 j ρ j , ρ j ≡ .
ε 0 j + σ 0 j1 + σ 0 j 2 + ξ 0 j + λ0 j
This section shows that the dynamics of the world economy can be ex-
pressed as 2 J − dimensional differential equations. First, from Eqs.
(11.4.4) we obtain
f j' (k j ) = f1' (k1 ) − δ j , j ≡ 2, L, J , (11.4.14)
( )
As f j" k j ≤ 0 , j = 1, L, J , we see that dk j / dk1 ≥ 0 , j = 2 , L, J . That
is, φ 'j (k1 ) ≥ 0 . Hence, for any given k1 (t ) > 0 , we uniquely determine
k j (t ), j = 2 , L, J as unique functions of k1 (t ). From Eqs. (11.4.5), we
determine the wage rates as functions of k1 (t ) as follows
where
φˆj (k1 ) ≡ f j (φ j (k1 )) − φ j (k1 ) f j' (φ j (k1 )).
( )
y aj = 1 + φˆ0 (k1 ) kˆ j + h jT0φˆ j (k1 ) + µ j m j , j = 1, L, J . (11.4.18)
11.4 A Multi-Country Growth Model with the MIUF Approach 443
σ jm kˆ j
( ) (
T jm (t ) = Λ jm k1 , kˆ j , m j ≡ σˆ jm − 1 + φˆ0 (k1 )
φˆ (k )
)
− σ jm µ j
mj
φˆ (k )
,
jm 1 jm 1
j = 1, L , J , m = 1, 2 , (11.4.19)
where we use Eqs. (11.4.5) and (11.4.8) and
σ jm h jT0
σˆ jm ≡ 1 − .
h jm
h j1
σˆ j 2 = 1 − 1 + σ j 2 T0 .
h j 2
If
1 h j1
−1≤ ,
σ j2 hj2
then country j ’s women will not work outside irrespective of the family’s
economic conditions. As we are interested in sexual division of labor in the
world, we require
1 h jm '
−1> , m , m' = 1, 2 , m ≠ m' , j = 1, L, J .
σ jm h jm
This means that any gender in any country works outside. By Eqs.
(11.4.19), we can express T jm (t ) as functions of kˆ j (t ), k1 (t ) and m j (t ) as
well.
We can rewrite Eq. (11.4.13) as
J 2 J
( {} )
kˆ1 = Λ k1 , kˆ , m ≡ Λ1 k1 , kˆ , m − ( {} )
σ jm kˆ j
1
( )
J 2
Λ (k , {kˆ}, m )
∑ n φ (k )∑ h j j 1 jm 1 + φˆ0 (k1 ) ,
φˆjm (k1 )
(11.4.20)
0 1 j =2 m =1
{ } ( )
where kˆ(t ) ≡ kˆ2 (t ), L, kˆJ (t ) , m(t ) ≡ (m1 (t ), L, mJ (t )) and
Λ (k , {kˆ}, m ) ≡
1 1
J 2 σ jm µ j m j J 1
∑ n jφ j (k1 )∑ h jm σˆ jm − ˆ − ∑ n kˆ Λ
j =1 m =1 φ jm (k1 ) j =2
j j
0 (k , {kˆ}, m),
1
( {} ) h σ
( )
2
Λ 0 k1 , kˆ , m ≡ 1 + k1 1 + φˆ0 (k1 ) ∑ 1m 1m ,
m =1 φ (k )
ˆ
1m 1
Nˆ j
nj ≡ , j = 1, L , J .
Nˆ1
( {} )
yaj (t ) = Φ j k1 , kˆ , m , j = 1, ... , J .
( {} ) (
m& j = Λ j 1 j 0 1)
ˆ k , kˆ , m ≡ µ + φˆ (k ) m + ε y .
j j aj
(11.4.21)
kˆ = λ Φ (k , {kˆ}, m ) − kˆ − m − Λ
ˆ (k , {kˆ}, m ),
& (11.4.22)
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
&
kˆ j = Φ 1( {} )
ˆ k , kˆ , m = λ Φ k , kˆ , m − kˆ − m − Λ
j j j 1 j j j 1 ( {} )
ˆ k , kˆ , m , ( {} )
j = 2 , L, J , (11.4.23)
11.4 A Multi-Country Growth Model with the MIUF Approach 445
where we also use Eqs. (11.4.21) and (11.4.23). Equalizing the right-hand
side of Eq. (11.4.22) and the right-hand side of Eq. (11.4.24), we have
k&1 = Φ ( {} )
ˆ k , kˆ , m ≡
1 1
J
∂Λ ˆ J
∂Λ ˆ ∂Λ
−1
(11.4.25)
λ Φ − kˆ − m − Λ
1 1 1 1
ˆ −
1 ∑ ˆ
j = 2 ∂k
Φj − ∑
j = 2 ∂m j
Λ j .
∂k1
j
We will not explicitly express these derivatives and partial derivatives
as they are straightforward to obtain, but their expressions are tedious. In
summary, we obtain the following lemma.
Lemma 11.4.1
The dynamics of the world economy is given by the 2 J − dimensional dif-
ferential equations
k&1 = Φ 1 1( {} )
ˆ k , kˆ , m ,
&
kˆ j = Φ ( {} )
ˆ k , kˆ , m ,
j 1
m& j = Λ j 1( {} )
ˆ k , kˆ , m , (11.4.26)
with k1 (t ), {k j (t )}, and m(t ) as the variables. For any given positive val-
ues of k1 (t ), {k j (t )}, and m(t ) at any point of time, all the other variables
are uniquely determined by the following procedure: k̂1 by (11.4.20) →
k j , j = 2, L, J by (11.4.15) → T jm by (11.4.19) → Tˆjm = T0 − T jm →
f j = f j (k j ) → r and w jm by (11.4.5) → yaj = Φ j by (11.4.18) →
M& j = µ j M j → Pj = M j / m j → π j = P&j / Pj → c j and s j by (11.4.11) →
N j = ∑m h jm Nˆ jT jm → K j = k j N j → F j = N j f j .
2
puting procedure given in Lemma 11.4.1, we may simulate the model to il-
lustrate motion of the system.
One of the neglected aspects of the theory of international trade are the effects
of trade on personal income distribution. … A deficiency of many studies of in-
come distribution is the use of static models to analyse a phenomenon that is
distinctively dynamic in nature.
24 This section is actually based on the multi-country growth trade model with
heterogeneous households (without money) proposed by Zhang (2006a: Sect. 8.4).
This section introduces money into the model with the CIA approach. It is
straightforward to introduce money with the MIUF approach.
11.5 A Heterogeneous Households Model with the CIA Approach 447
Q * ≡ {( j , q ) | j = 1, L, J , q = 1, L, Q j }.
N 0 j = ∑ N jq .
q =1
Like in Sect. 11.4, we assume that each country has two outside assets:
fiat money and physical capital. We assume that each country’s money is a
nontradeable asset. Let Pj (t ), M j (t ), τ j (t ), m j (t ), π j (t ), Eij (t ), and µ j
be defined as in Sect. 11.4. We have
M& j (t ) = µ j M j (t ), µ j > 0 ,
M& j (t ) µ j M j (t )
τ j (t ) = = = µ j m j (t ),
Pj (t ) Pj (t )
We also have
E& ij (t ) (11.5.3)
= π i (t ) − π j (t ).
Eij (t )
448 11 Growth, Money and Trade
F j (t ) K j (t )
f j (t ) = f j (k j (t )), f j (t ) ≡ , k j (t ) ≡ .
Nj Nj
Markets are competitive; thus labor and capital earn their marginal prod-
ucts, and firms earn zero profits. The marginal conditions are given by
r + δ kj = f j' (k j ), w jq (t ) = h jq ( f j (k j ) − k j f j' (k j )), ( j, q ) ∈ Q* . (11.5.4)
and neglect possible money required for other purposes, such as investment.
26 According to Stockman, investment should also be taken into account. That
is, instead of (4.1.3), one should have a general constraint in the form of
( )
Ψ c , k& ≤ m . A simplified form is c + k& ≤ m . The form accepted in this study is
common in the CIA literature and it is also important for us to generate a unique
( )
steady state. If we accept Ψ c , k& ≤ m , then the uniqueness may not be guaran-
teed. Suen and Yip (2005) discuss how CIA constrains may affect the number of
steady states and their stability properties in the Ramsey approach.
11.5 A Heterogeneous Households Model with the CIA Approach 449
stand for the per capita physical wealth of group q in country j . A con-
sumer q of country j obtains the current income
yˆ jq (t ) = r (t )kˆ jq (t ) + w jq (t ) + µ j m j (t ) − π j (t )m jq (t ) (11.5.6)
+ a jq (t ), ( j, q ) ∈ Q* ,
where a jq (t ) ≡ kˆ jq (t ) + m jq (t ). At each point of time, a consumer distrib-
utes the total available budget among saving, s jq (t ), and consumption of
goods, c jq (t ). The budget constraints are given by
Qj (11.5.11)
N 0 j m j (t ) = ∑ m (t )N jq jq .
q =1
where
δ j ≡ δ k1 − δ kj .
If f1' (k1 ) − δ j > 0 for all j = 2, L, J and given k1 (t ) > 0, then the equa-
tions determine unique relations between k j and k1 , denoted by
k j = φ j (k1 ), j = 1, L, J , (11.5.13)
∑ k j (t )N j = ∑∑ kˆ jq (t )N jq .
j =1 j =1 q =1
( { })
kˆ11 (t ) = Λ k1 , kˆ(t ) ≡
J J Qj Qj
in which
nj ≡
Nj
N11
, n jq ≡
N jq
N11
, {kˆ(t )} ≡ (kˆ 12 (t ), L, kˆ1Q (t ), L, kˆJQ (t )).
1 J
We see that group (1, 1) ’s per capita wealth, kˆ11 (t ), can be expressed as
a unique function of country 1’s capital intensity and all the other groups’
{ }
per capita wealth, kˆ(t ) , at any point of time.
From the definitions of yajq , a jq = kˆ jq + m jq , and Eqs. (11.5.4) and
(11.5.6), we obtain
( { })
y ajq = φajq k1 , kˆ(t ) + µ j m j + m jq , ( j, q ) ∈ Q* , (11.5.16)
( { }) ( { })
φa11 k1 , kˆ(t ) ≡ [ f1' (k1 ) + 1 − δ k 1 ]Λ k1 , kˆ(t ) + φˆ11 (k1 ),
( { })
φajq k1 , kˆ(t ) ≡ [ f1' (k1 ) + 1 − δ k1 ]kˆ jq + φˆ jq (k1 ),
( j, q ) ∈ Q * , ( j, q ) ≠ (1, 1).
Insert m jq = χ jq c jq in (1 + χ jqπ j )c jq = ξ jq yajq
1
+ π j m jq = ξ jq y ajq .
χ
jq
Substituting Eqs. (11.5.16) into the above equations yields
φajq + µ j m j (11.5.17)
m jq = .
1 / ξ jq χ jq + π j / ξ jq − 1
N0 jm j = ∑
Qj
(φ ajq + µ j m j )N jq
,
q =1 (1/ ξ jq χ jq + π j / ξ jq − 1)
N0 j = ∑
Qj
(φ ajq + µ j m j )ξ jq N jq
, j = 1, ... , J ,
(11.5.18)
q =1 ξˆ m − m&
jq j j
N0 j =
(φ aj1 + µ j m j )ξ j1 N j1 (φaj 2 + µ j m j )ξ j 2 N j 2
+ .
ξˆ j1m j − m& j ξˆ j 2 m j − m& j
It is straightforward to confirm that the problem may have two solu-
tions. For simplicity, we require that for any j
( {} )
m& j = Λ j k1 , kˆ , m ≡ ξˆ jq m j −
Qj (11.5.20)
∑ (φ + µ j m j )ξ jq N jq , j = 1, ... , J .
1
ajq
N0 j q =1
π j = µj −
( { } ).
Λ m j k1 , kˆ , m
mj
11.5 A Heterogeneous Households Model with the CIA Approach 453
( { } ) ξˆ (mφ
m jq = Λ 0 jq k1 , kˆ , m ≡
ajq + µ j m j )m j ξ jq
( {} )
− Λ k , kˆ , m
.
(11.5.21)
j j mj 1
( {} ) ∂Λ 0 jq
( {} )
J
G jq k1 , kˆ , m ≡ ∑
j =1 ∂m j
Λ j k1 , kˆ , m .
jq 1( {} )
ˆ k , kˆ , m ≡ φ k , kˆ(t ) + µ m
y ajq = Λ ajq 1 j j ( { }) (11.5.23)
+ Λ 0 jq (k , {kˆ}, m),
1 ( j, q ) ∈ Q* .
We see that yajq can be explicitly expressed as functions k1 (t ), k̂ (t ) { }
and m(t ).
Inserting s jq (t ) = λ jq yˆ jq (t ) in Eqs. (11.5.8) into (11.5.9), we obtain
( {} )
Gˆ jq k1 , kˆ , m ≡ λ jq Λ
ˆ −Λ −G .
jq 0 jq jq
∂Λ ∂Λ 0 jq & ∂Λ 0 jq ∂Λ &
kˆ = Gˆ − Λ .
+
∂k1
k1 + ∑
+
∂kˆ jq jq jq
∂k1 ( j , q )∈Q* , ( j , q )≠ (1,1) ∂k1 (11.5.26)
In summary, we have the following lemma.
Lemma 11.5.1
Assume that (11.5.19) are satisfied. The dynamics of the global economy
is described by the ( J + Q ) − differential equations, (11.5.26), (11.5.24)
{ }
and (11.5.20) with k1 (t ), k̂ (t ) and m(t ) as the variables. That is, the mo-
{ }
tion of k1 (t ), k̂ (t ) and m(t ) is determined by
∂Λ ∂Λ 0 jq & ∂Λ 0 jq ∂Λ &ˆ
+
∂k1
k1 + ∑
+
ˆ
k jq = Gˆ11Λ j − Λ ,
∂k1 ( j , q )∈Q , ( j , q )≠ (1,1)
* ∂k 1 ∂k jq
Gˆ jq − kˆ jq , ( j, q ) ∈ Q * , ( j, q ) ≠ (1,1),
m& j = Λ j . (11.5.27)
{ }
For any given positive values of k1 (t ), k̂ (t ) and m(t ) at any point of
time, all the other variables are uniquely determined by the following pro-
cedure: kˆ11 (t ) by (11.5.15) → k j , j = 2, L, J by (11.5.13) →
f j = f j (k j ) → r and w jq , ( j , q ) ∈ Q* by (11.5.4) → m jq by (11.5.17) →
&
yajq by (11.5.16) → a jq = kˆ jq + m jq → c jq and s j by (11.5.8) →
Fj = N j f j .
( ) ( { })
J Qj Qj
( ) (
k jq = Λ jq k1 , kˆ jq ≡ λ jq f1' (k1 ) − λˆ jq k jq + λ jqφˆ jq (k1 ),
&
)
( j, q ) ∈ Q * , ( j, q ) ≠ (1, 1), (11.5.29)
where λˆ jq ≡ 1 − λ jq + λ jqδ k 1 and
( ) ( )
Λ jq k1 , kˆ jq ≡ λ jq f1' (k1 ) − λˆ jq kˆ jq + λ jqφˆ jq (k1 ), ( j, q ) ∈ Q* .
An equilibrium point is given by setting k&1 = 0 and k& = 0 . That is {}
(λ 11 1
'
)
f (k1 ) − λˆ11 kˆ11 + λ11φˆ11 (k1 ) = 0 , (11.5.30)
456 11 Growth, Money and Trade
(λ jq )
f1' (k1 ) − λˆ jq kˆ jq + λ jqφˆ jq (k1 ) = 0, ( j, q ) ∈ Q* ,
( j, q ) ≠ (1, 1). (11.5.31)
Solve Eqs. (11.5.31)
δ k 1 0.07
δ k 2 = 0.06 . (11.5.35)
δ 0.05
k3
For convenience of interpretation, we call countries 1, 2 , and 3 re-
spectively as the developed economy, the industrializing economy, and the
developing economy. Groups ( j , 1) and ( j , 2 ) in country j are called the
rich group (RG) and the poor group (PP) respectively. The level of the to-
tal productivity of the developed economy is the highest; the second is the
11.5 A Heterogeneous Households Model with the CIA Approach 457
k1 = 57.77. (11.5.36)
Ω(k1 )
Ω(k1 )
20000
200
10000
40 50 60 70 k1
-200
5 10 15 20 25 30
k1 -400
-600
-10000
-800
-20000 -1000
kˆ11 950.12
kˆ 196.09
C1 505.20 Kˆ 1 1684.77 12
kˆ 95.99
C 2 = 126.27 , Kˆ 2 = 417.52 , 21 = ,
C 31.29 ˆ
22 kˆ 28.19
3 K 3 66.45 kˆ 18.80
31
kˆ 2.33
32
C jq ≡ c jq N jq , C j ≡ C j1 + C j 2 , Kˆ jq ≡ kˆ jq N jq , Kˆ j ≡ Kˆ j1 + Kˆ j 2 .
We see that the per-capita levels of wealth and consumption and wage
rate of the RG of the developed economy are much higher than the corre-
sponding variables in the other economies. A representative household
from the GR of the developed economy holds more than 400 times wealth
and consumes more than 100 times than a representative household from
the PG of the developing economy. Also the wage rate differences are over
100 times between the poorest and the richest. The developed economy’s
output level of per-unit human capital is about 9 times higher than that in
the developing economy.
The income and wealth distribution of the world economy is given by
Nˆ 1 16.21% Fˆ1 76.58% Wˆ1 80.01%
Nˆ 2 = 27.03% , Fˆ2 = 18.50% , Wˆ 2 = 18.44% ,
ˆ ˆ ˆ
N 3 56.76% F3 4.92% W3 1.52%
11.5 A Heterogeneous Households Model with the CIA Approach 459
k1 (t ) = 70, kˆ12 (0) = 150, kˆ21 (0) = 70, kˆ22 (0 ) = 20, kˆ31 (0 ) = 10, kˆ32 (0) = 1.
460 11 Growth, Money and Trade
The simulation results are plotted in Fig. 11.5.2. We observe that the
variables approach to their equilibrium values in the long term. It can be
seen that from different positions, we may observe various patterns of
global economy growth over time.
70 16
f1
60 k1 14
50 12
40 10
8
30
20
6 f2
k2 4
10 t t
50 k 3 150 100 200 50 f 3 150
100 200
w11
0.018
r 120
100
0.016 80
0.014 60 w21
0.012 40
w12
t 20
50 100 150 200 w 22 w31 t
50 w32100 150 200
1400 200
1200
1000 150 c11
800 k̂11 100
600
400 c12
200 k̂12
50
c21
k̂ 22 k̂ 21
100 kˆ31 , 150
kˆ32 c50
31 , c32100 c22
t t
50 200 150 200
~
3 E1 0.7
F̂1
2 0.6
0.5
1
0.4
~ 50 100 150 200
t
0.3
-1 E3 0.2
F̂2
~
-2 E2 50 100 150 200
t
F̂3
g) the trade balances h) the shares of global product
Fig. 11.5.2. The motion of the global economy
11.5 A Heterogeneous Households Model with the CIA Approach 461
First, we examine the case that all the parameters, except the human capi-
tal level of the RG of the developed economy, h11 , are the same as in
(11.5.35). We increase the human capital level from 12 to 13. The simula-
tion results are demonstrated in Fig. 11.5.3. In the plots, a variable ∆x j (t )
stand for the change rate of the variable x j (t ) in percentage due to changes
in the parameter value from h110 ( = 12 in this case) to h11 ( = 13 ). That is
x j (t ; h11 ) − x j (t ; h110 )
∆x j (t ) ≡ × 100,
x j (t ; h110 )
where x j (t ; h11 ) stands for the value of the variable x j with the parameter
value h11 at time t and x j (t ; h110 ) stands for the value of the variable x j
with the parameter value h110 at time t. We will use the symbol ∆ with
the same meaning when we analyze other parameters.
From Fig. 11.5.3a, we see that as the RG of the developed economy im-
proves its human capital level, the capital-labor ratios, the per-labor output
levels, and the wage rates in all the three economies are increased. The rate
of interest falls down. The per-capita wealth level and per-capita consump-
tion level of the RG of the developed economy are increased; the per-
capita wealth levels and per-capita consumption levels of the PG of the
developed economy and all the other groups are slightly affected. From
Fig. 11.5.3g, the developed economy’s trade balance deteriorates first and
then improves. The developing economy’s trade balance improves and the
industrializing economy’s trade balance deteriorates. As the RG of the de-
veloped economy improves its human capital, the global output share of
the developed economy rises and the other two economies’ shares fall
down.
As (1, 1) ’s wealth and consumption are dramatically changed and the
other groups’ are only slightly affected in comparison, we need to further
examine the effects on the per-capita wealth levels and per-capita con-
sumption levels of the PG of the developed economy and all the groups of
the industrializing and developing economies. Figure 11.5.4 shows the dif-
ferences. We see that the RG of the industrializing economy’s per-capita
wealth levels and per-capita consumption levels are slightly reduced due to
the increase in the RG’s human capital level.
462 11 Growth, Money and Trade
∆k1
1.2 ∆k 2 0.4 ∆f1
1 ∆f 3
∆k3 0.3 ∆f 2
0.8
0.6 0.2
0.4
0.1
0.2
t t
50 100 150 200 50 100 150 200
8 ∆w1
-2.6
-2.8 6
t
50 100 150 200
-3.2 4
-3.4
-3.6 ∆r 2
-3.8 ∆w12 , ∆w21 ∆w22 , ∆w31 ∆w32
t
50 100 150 200
c) the rate of interest d) the wage rates
8 8
∆k̂11 ∆c11
6 6
4 4
2 2
∆kˆ12 , ∆kˆ21 , ∆kˆ22 , ∆kˆ31 , ∆kˆ22 ∆c12 , ∆c21 , ∆c22 , ∆c31 , ∆c32
t t
50 100 150 200 50 100 150 200
e) the per capita wealth f) the per capita consumption levels
2 1
∆E3 ∆F̂1
1 t
50 100 150 200
50
∆E1
100 150 200
t -1
-1 -2
-2 ∆ E2 -3 ∆Fˆ2 , ∆Fˆ3
0.4
∆w31 , ∆w32 0.2 0.2
0.3 ∆w12 ∆w21 , ∆w22 0.15 ∆k̂12 0.15 ∆c12
0.2 0.1 ∆k̂32 0.1
∆c32
0.1 0.05 ∆kˆ , ∆kˆ 0.05
∆c22 , ∆c31
∆k̂ 21 22 31
a) the wage rates b) the per capita wealth c) the consumption levels
Fig. 11.5.4. The other groups are affected differently ( h11 : 12 ⇒ 13 )
0.1
t t
50 100 150 200 50 100 150 200
-0.1
-0.5 -0.2
-0.3
-1
∆k3 -0.4
-1.5 -0.5 ∆f 2
∆k 2 ∆k1 -0.6 ∆f1 ∆f 3
a) the per-capita capital inputs b) the per-capita output levels
100
5 ∆r ∆w32
80
4
60
3
2 ∆F 40
20
∆w11 , ∆w12 , ∆w21 ∆w22 , ∆w31t
1
t
50 100 150 200 50 100 150 200
c) the rate of interest and the world output d) the wage rates
100 100
∆k̂32 ∆c32
80 80
60 60
40 40
20 20
∆kˆ11 , ∆kˆ12 , ∆kˆ21 , ∆kˆ22 , ∆kˆ31 t
∆c12 , ∆c21 , ∆c22 , ∆c31 , ∆c32 t
50 100 150 200 50 100 150 200
∆Fˆ1100
, ∆Fˆ2
-80
∆E2 50 150 200
t
2.2
6 ∆k1 2 ∆ f1
∆k 2 1.8 ∆f 3
5
∆k3 1.6 ∆f 2
1.4
4 1.2
t
t 50 100 150 200
50 100 150 200 0.8
2.2
-19
2 ∆w11 , ∆w12
-19.5
-20 ∆r 1.8 ∆w21 , ∆w22
-20.5 1.6
-21 1.4 ∆w31 , ∆w32
-21.5 1.2
t t
-22.5 50 100 150 200 50 100 150 200
0.8
10
∆k̂11 1 ∆c32
8 0.5 ∆c12
∆c22 , ∆c31
6
50 100 ∆c150
21 200
t
-0.5
4
-1
∆c11
∆kˆ12 , ∆kˆ22 , ∆kˆ31 , ∆kˆ32
2 -1.5
t -2
50∆k̂ 21 100 150 200
e) the per capita wealth f) the per capita consumption levels
15 0.1
∆ E3 ∆F̂1
10 t
50 100 150 200
5 -0.1
∆E1 t -0.2
50 100 150 200 ∆F̂3
-5 -0.3
∆E2 -0.4
∆F̂2
-10
50 100
∆F 150 200
t 0.16
0.14 ∆w11 , ∆w12
-0.5
0.12 ∆w31 , ∆w32
-1
∆r ∆50
w21 , ∆w
100 150 200
t
22
-1.5 0.08
0.06
∆c32
25 ∆k̂32 t
20 -2.5 ∆c50
11 , ∆c12 , ∆c21 , ∆c 22 , ∆ c31
100 150 200
15 -5
10 -7.5
-10
5
∆kˆ11 , ∆kˆ12 , ∆kˆ22 , ∆kˆ22 , ∆kˆ31 t
-12.5
50 100 150 200
20 0.01
∆E3 ∆F̂3
15
t
10 50 100 150 200
5 -0.01
∆ E2 t
∆F̂1
-0.02
50 100 150 200
-5 ∆F̂2
∆E1 -0.03
human capital proposed in the previous chapters into the trade models in
this chapter.
∆kˆ12 , ∆kˆ21 , ∆kˆ22 , ∆kˆ31 , ∆kˆ32 ∆c12 , ∆c21 , ∆c22 , ∆c31 , ∆c32
t t
50 100 150 200 50 100 150 200
-0.5
-1 -1
∆k̂11 -1.5 ∆c11
-2 -2
-2.5
-3 -3
-3.5
∆E3 1
2
∆F̂1
1 t
50 100 150 200
t -1
50 ∆E1
100 150 200
-1 -2
-2 -3
∆ E2 ∆Fˆ2 , ∆Fˆ3
-3 -4
t t
50 100 150 200 50 100 150 200
-0.025 -0.01
-0.05 -0.02
-0.075
-0.03
-0.1
-0.04
-0.125 ∆k3 ∆f 2
-0.15 -0.05 ∆f 3
-0.175 ∆k1 ∆k 2 -0.06 ∆f1
t
0.5
∆r -0.01
50 100 150 200
-0.02
0.4
-0.03
0.3 ∆F -0.04 ∆w21 , ∆w22
-0.05 ∆w31 , ∆w32
t -0.06 ∆w11 , ∆w12
50 100 150 200
0.3
0.3
0.25
0.2 0.2
0.15
0.1
∆k̂11
0.1 ∆c
0.05
t t
50 100 150 200 50 100 150 200
∆kˆ12 , ∆kˆ21 , ∆kˆ22 , ∆kˆ31 , ∆kˆ32 ∆c12 , ∆c21 , ∆c22 , ∆c31 , ∆c32
e) the per capita wealth f) the per capita consumption levels
4
∆E1 ∆F̂3
2 6
Appendix
M0 E (0)B0 B0
m(0 ) = , b(0) = = ,
P(0) P(0) Q0
where
c — real consumption;
g — real government expenditure;
m — real money balances;
M — nominal money balances;
b — real stock of traded bonds;
B — nominal stock of traded bonds;
l — supply of labor;
w — real wage rate;
Π — real profit, paid out to consumers;
β — exogenously fixed rate of time preference;
P — domestic price level;
Q — foreign price level;
E — nominal exchange rate;
τ — rate of income tax;
T — real lump-sum taxes.
a nominal interest rate i * , and domestic money balances, the real rates of
return on which are (i * − q ) and − p = − (q + e ), respectively. The real
interest rate (i * − q ) is assumed positive.
Households determine c , l , m , and b with g , e , q , Π , w , i * , E , Q ,
and P as given. The Hamiltonian is
H ≡ e − βtU (c, l , m, g )
[ ]
+ λe − βt (1 − λ )(wl + Π ) + (i * − q )b − (q + e )m − T − c − m& − b& ,
where λ (t ) is the costate variable associated with the agent’s budget. The
optimality conditions are
U c = λ , U l = − (1 − τ )wλ , U m = (i * + e )λ ,
− p = (i * + e ) − p = i * − q ,
Um
λ
asserts that the real rate of return on money, which equals the utility from
the consumption of money services plus its real return as income earning
asset (− p ) must equal the real return on holding traded bonds. The last
equation, which can be rewritten as
λ& *
β− = i − q,
λ
says that the rates of return on money and traded bond equal the rate of re-
turn on consumption. The transversality conditions, ruling out explosive
behavior of the model, are
lim λme − βt = lim λbe − βt = 0 . (A.11.1.2)
t →∞ t →∞
We have determined the equilibrium where all agents optimize, all mar-
kets clear, and there is perfect foresight so that all expectations are real-
ized. We now examine steady state of the system. A steady state of the
system is given by
φ = q + e , U c = λ , U l = − (1 − τ )F ' λ ,
U m = (i * + φ − e )λ , F − c − g + (i * − q )(b − a ) = 0 ,
g + (i * − q )a − φm − τ (wl + Π ) − T = 0 .
474 11 Growth, Money and Trade
The first five chapters of the book are concerned with the traditional static
trade theories. We are then concerned with dynamic trade theories, treating
static trade theories as special cases of dynamic theories. To study dy-
namic issues related to international trade, this book proposes an alterna-
tive approach to the traditional approaches. The numerous models pro-
posed in this study demonstrates that the approach in modeling household
behavior proposed in study is effective in analyzing many dynamic issues,
in comparison to, for instance, the Ramsey approach. When speaking
about developing a new theory, I am aware of the following criteria of a
theory proposed by Kuhn.2 “A theory should be: (1) accurate within do-
main; (2) consistent internally and with other currently accepted theories;
(3) a broad scope allowing its consequences to extend beyond the particu-
lar observations, laws or subtheories it was initially designed to explain;
(4) simple but able to bring order to the phenomena that in its absence
would be individually isolated and, as a set, confused; and (5) fruitful to
disclose new phenomena or previously unnoted relationships among those
already known.”3 This book presents an international trade theory based on
the traditional models. The main deviation from the traditional approaches
is the alternative utility function which helps us to solve many important
problems with a consistent manner.4
1 http://www-groups.dcs.st-andrews.ac.uk/~history/Quotations/Bacon.html.
2 Kuhn (1977).
3 Zhang (1999: 402-403).
4 This approach has already been applied to non-monetary growth theory
The book has been organized in the order that is characterized of evolu-
tion of international trade theory. First we are concerned with static com-
petitive trade theory. Then, we study static monopolistic trade theory. Both
competitive and monopolistic competitive trade theories can be classified
further by global factor mobility and immobility. After examining the ba-
sic ideas of static trade theories, we extend the static vision to the dynamic
one. We are concerned with endogenous growth of two factors, capital and
knowledge. Again, we divide the theories into perfectly competitive and
monopolistically competitive economies. The perfectly competitive econ-
omy under government intervention is basically based on Zhang’s ap-
proach. In this approach, both knowledge growth and capital accumulation
are analyzed in a single compact framework. The models of monopolistic
competition are mainly concerned with growth, trade and innovation. In
this approach, it is not easy to take account of both capital accumulation
and innovation within a single framework. In almost all the models of this
approach, capital accumulation has been neglected.
The book is focused on the basic economic mechanisms of international
trade. We have omitted many important topics in trade theory, even though
many of these issues can be discussed with the analytical frameworks and
basic concepts used in this book. We now mention a few straightforward
directions for extending this book.
Functional generalizations
Given rapid development of pure and applied mathematics as well as
mathematical economics,5 it is possible to make any economic theory in
more general than its current form by generalizing some of its functional
forms or “connections”. For instance, utility and production functions used
in our analyses can take more general forms. One can directly apply ad-
vanced mathematics to generalize many results in this book.
This book proposed some trade models. In principle, almost all the
models can be connected with each other in the sense that we can build a
more general model which includes the models as special cases. Neverthe-
less, more general models may be analytically too complicated and few
new insights can be obtained. In fact, as shown in Chap. 2, it is difficult to
determine terms of trade and patterns of trade even when the world consists of
only two countries, and each country has two production sectors with two fac-
tors with differences in preference and technology with the Cobb-Douglas
production and utility functions. This means that even working with an almost
most simple economic world with properly defined technology and utility
functions will cause analytically difficult problems. The Oniki-Uzawa trade
model is beautiful and extension of the model to multiple countries and multi-
ple sectors is straightforward. But almost none meaningful extension of the
model has been done perhaps because of analytical intractability. The Oniki-
Uzawa model tells, to some degree, why trade theory has seldom dealt
with countries both with demand and supply in a single framework. Each
“school” of trade theory picks up some factors and neglects many others.7
It seems that to make a correct conjecture about any event whatever, it is neces-
sary to calculate exactly the number of possible cases and then to determine
how much more likely it is that one case will occur than another.
Jacob Bernoulli8
This book builds many models with certainty. In reality, decisions in-
volve risks and uncertainties. For instance, an important issue in monetary
economics is related to the announcement effects of anticipated monetary
policy upon behavior of economic systems. Basing on the literature on the
topic,9 we can examine the issues within the models proposed in this book.
As the literature in economics with risks, uncertainties and expectations is
vast, it takes a long space even to make a basic introduction to the litera-
ture.
worth. This value should be reflected in the economic, social, and political
structures of democratic societies. In modern times, the economic reality
of many democratic societies is characterized by inequality. Thoreau
(1817-1862) asserted:10 “It is a mistake to suppose that, in a country where
the usual evidences of civilisation exist, the condition of a very large body
of the inhabitants may not be as degraded as that of savages. I refer to the
degraded poor, not, now, to the degraded rich.” As globalization is spread,
relationships between trade and justice does seem to have increasingly im-
portant. It is often argued that even when democracy brings greater ine-
qualities, it increases the absolute income of the poor. This study offers
almost no discussion on issues of distributive justice. The theory of dis-
tributive justice is about “how a society or group should allocate its scarce re-
sources or product among individuals with competing needs or claims.11”
The word justice actually can be used in a wide variety of ways, so that it
tends to be interpreted with a great degree of latitude when referring to
concrete phenomena. Modern (mainstream) economics has little to offer
about the dynamics of inequalities and poverty. As analytical economics
lacks proper dynamic frameworks for addressing distributive issues with in-
ternational trade, it can be seen why modern economics does not make essen-
tial contributions to the theory of distributive justice. As our analytical
framework deals with growth and income and wealth distribution, the eco-
nomic theory proposed in this study may provide some new insights into in-
terdependence between trade, justice and distribution.12
Preference structures
Utility functions may be taken on various forms. Except common issues
related to forms of utility functions, we may also introduce preference
change. For instance, when we write a utility function in the form of
U (t ) = C ξ S λ , we may introduce endogenous preference changes by al-
lowing ξ and λ to be changeable in the long term.14
Government policy
Governments may intervene economic systems in different ways. It is
important to examine the impact of various government interventions on
tariffs over time and space. For instance, economic issues related to inter-
national integration and block formation are currently important issues in
trade theory. Various possible taxes on imports and exports are important
for analyzing trade flows and global economic growth. It is well known
that tax structures have also important implications for growth and income
and wealth distribution.
13 For the traditional approaches related to the topics, see Brander and Taylor
(1997), Sachs and Warner (1999), Mäler (2000), Ayong Le Kama (2001), Gerlagh
and Keyzer (2004), and Wirl (2004).
14 See Zhang (2005a, 2008a). For preference changes in the Ramsey growth
models, see Uzawa (1968), Boyer (1978), Shi and Epstein (1993), Epstein and
Hynes (1983), Seckin (2001), and Mansoorian (1998).
15 Zhang (1993d, 2005a) provides various reasons for unemployment and also
Outside and inside money, fixed versus flexible exchange rates, mone-
tary policy rules and changes in transactions technology
This book is mainly concerned with models in which all money is as-
sumed to be of the outside form, standing for non-interest-bearing gov-
ernment debt. In reality a large part of money supply is of the inside form,
for instance, bank deposits – representing claims to the private sector. Ag-
gregated over the private sector, outside money is part of net wealth of the
private sector, whereas inside money is not. The importance of the distinc-
tion between inside and outside money was recognized early in the mone-
tary growth literature.16 It is expected that dynamics of inside and outside
money should have been changed due to the economic development and
technological changes. Most of our dynamic models are concerned with
flexible exchange rates. It is important to examine what will happen when
exchange rates are fixed. Moreover, we did not make any comprehensive
study of money supply. The assumption that the money supply is exoge-
nous has been commonly accepted in the literature of theoretical monetary
economics. Also, payment systems have gone through a major transforma-
tion in the last two decades in many parts of the world. The development
of the technology to transfer information has increased substitutability be-
tween deposits and currency in transactions. It has been observed that the
cost of transactions has been substantially reduced due to the technological
changes. Innovations in financial markets have created and will continue to
create new methods of transacting, such as credit cards, debit cards, instant
cash machines, etc.
16 For instance, Johnson (1969), Marty (1969), and Saving (1970, 1973) discussed
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Index
discount rate 190, see also rate of small country economy 192, 200
time preference trade 15, 177, 373
discounted utility 190 world economy 264, 326, 352,
disposable income 135, 157, 181, 369, 442, 475
208, 214, 235, 258, 299, 308, dual-economic model 243
315, 327, 341, 356, 420, 431, dual approach 33, 40, 42, 71, 99, 108
440, 194, see also income Dutch Disease 40
distribution 58 Duraton G 226
capital 7, 87, 132, 241, 249
consumption over the life cycle Eaton J 7, 10, 241, 313, 324
238 economic
human capital 132 analysis 8, 417
income 33, 175, 324, 446 progress 6
labor 34, 87, 293, 479 structure 56, 285, 388
natural 162 economic development 14, see also
policy 346 development
population 215, 235 economic geography 204, see also
time 227, 260, 329 new economic geography
wealth 269, 446, 478, 480 economic growth 6, 9, 77, 124, 135,
distributional justice 477 205, 226, 255, 347, 395, 403,
division of labor 5, 9, 286 407
global 294, 303 Chinese-dominated economies
international 9, 26, 243 335
sexual 255, 257, 443 complexity 373
Dixit A 3, 11, 14, 33, 52, 77, 131, determinant 256
392 driving force 373
Dixit-Stiglitz model 14, 389 global 310, 317, 480
Dixon HD 14 international 185
Dobb M 478 Japanese 335
Dobell AR 178, 184, 238, 339 Korea 335
Doi J 285 mechanism 374
Dollar D 324 multi-regional open small 203,
domestic technology investments 226
175 national 200
Dornbusch R 73, 140, 164, 423, 470 spatial 205
Down K 161 sustained 338
Drabicki JZ 417 theory 185, 238
dynamics 7, 261, 338 with externalities 395
capital-labor ratio 186 economic theory 6, 23, 241
current account 232 general 314, 476
economic 11, 177, 210, 327 neoclassical 185, 228, 337
international trade 176 new 12, 241, 398, 404
interregional 192, 217, 221 economy of scale 3, 8, 78, see also
monetary economic 450 return to scale
population 8, 209 Eden F 421
price 166 Edmonds EV 175
Index 511
Flam H 73 geometric 49
Flatters F 118 Gerlagh R 480
Fleming JM 417 Glaeser EL 209
flexible-exchange-rate-system 153 global services 1
floating-exchange-rate-system 153 globalization 1, 176, 388, 478
Forslid R 227 GNP 203
four fundamental trade theorems Gobillon L 226
108, see also core trade golden standard 135
theorems Gombi I 229, 231
Francois JF 11 Gomme P 255
Frederick S 191-2 Graham FD 19
free trade 14, 24, 36, 45, 84, 117, gravity theory 205
163, 203, 257, 307 Green JR 179, 480
equilibrium 89 Grinols EL 10
system 51 gross domestic product (GDP) 42
Frenkel JA 7, 197, 246 gross regional product (GRP) 212
Friedman BM 430 Grossman GM 12, 41, 375, 376,
Friedman M 238, 421, 471 381-2, 389, 391, 396, 407
Froyen RT 238 Grossmann V 12
Fujita M 85, 129, 205, 210, 391, 399 GRP 212, see also gross regional
Fujiwara K 85 product
fundamental identity of national Grubel HG 33, 90
income accounting 136 Grubert H 30
Fung KC 94 GTAP model 205
Guilló MD 193
gain from trade 3, 9, 23, 25, 31, 71,
79, 81 habit 231
Galí J 192, 205, 430 formation 233
Galor O 229, 255, 366, 430 Hahn FH 93, 430
Gandolfo G 5, 32-3, 52 Hamada K 118, 480
Gao T 391, 388 Hannesson R 193
GDP 54, 136, 194, 212, 336, see also Hanson GH 125
gross domestic product Harris R 193
world 50 Heckscher E 4, 46-7
gender 231, 255, see also sexual Heckscher-Ohlin 395, see also
division of labor international trade theory
gap 255 factor 11
inequality 255 model 4, 61, 396
general-equilibrium v, 23, 103, 152, theorem 47, 107, 116
176, 204 theory 4, 33, 45, 52, 85, 241
analysis 4 Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson model
long-term 4, 16, 53 49, see also HOS model
model 56, 395 Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek model 49,
general-equilibrium product-cycle see also HOV model
model 374, 381 Helpman E 10, 12, 14, 33, 82, 94-5,
general trade equilibrium model 49 375, 376, 381-3, 389, 391, 396,
Index 513
Kaempfer WH 41 labor
Kahn LM 255 productivity 9, 27, 103, 356
Kakimoto S 118, 207, 209 theory of value 24
Kar S 125 labor supply 252, 287, 385, 439
Karp L 328 curve 141
Kehoe P 430 endogenous labor supply 20, 243,
Keller W 175 255
Kemp MC 6, 10, 95, 241, 419, 417, function 141
421 labor-
Index 515
abundant 37
augmenting 243 MacDougall GDA 6, 241
intensive 38 Mäler KG 480
Laffont JJ 480 Malinvaud E 480
Lai CC 477 Manasse P 175, 323
Lai ELC 381 Manning R 63
Laird S 432 Mansoorian A 480
Lam D 255 manufacturing 130, 243, 390, 403
land 6, 107, 115, 121, 211 marginal cost 83
intensive 114 marginal-cost pricing 375
market 205 Marglin SA 478
ownership 207 Marjit S 125, 175
rent 108, 122, 204, 206, 220, 241 market structure 12, 13, see also
rich 52 perfect competition,
use pattern 205 monopolistic competition
using 52 markup 83
land-labor ratio 114 Markusen JR 10, 41, 51, 94-5
Landesmann M 285 Marquist MH 431
Lane PR 192, 205 Marshall A 3, 52
law of one price 424 Marshallian
Layard R 480 offer curve 3
Leamer EE 34, 50-1, 107 stability 103
learning by doing 9, 324, 339, 345, Martin PJ 130, 242, 324
356, 374 Martin R 118, 129, 204-5
Lee H 328 Marty AL 481
Lee SD 107, 117 Mas-Colell A 179
Leontief WW 285 Maskus KE 381
Leontief paradox 51 Matsuyama K 14, 73, 326, 430
Lerner AP 4, 33, 45 Matthews RCO 10
less developed 13, 24, 242 Maurer R 12
Lewis WA 243, 285 Mayer W 41, 95
Licandro O 366 Mayor TH 432
license 381 McCall L 255
Lin SK 430 McCallum BT 140, 148, 163, 173
Linder hypothesis 51 McCulloch N 175
Liso ND 328 McDougall R 200, 205
Lloyd PJ 90 McKay A 175
Loewenstein G 191-2 McMillan J 63
long-run aggregate supply (LRAS) Melvin JR 10, 41, 95
curve 153 Meng Q 395
lot size 206, 216 mercantilism 2, 26
LRAS curve 153 Metzler LA 73, 172
Lucas RE 12, 373, 432 migration 51, 133, 210, 247, 256,
Ludvigson S 255 446, 481
Lui F 366 labor 11
Lyapunov’s theorem 184 Mill JS 3, 52-3
516 Index
Persson I 255
Obstfeld M 7, 27, 157, 192, 205, 231, Persson T 430
242, 418, 423 Pflüger M 129, 227
O’Donoghue T 191-2 Phelps ES 12
Ohlin B 4, 10, 46-7, 203 planning 26
Ohyama M 163, 170 Pleeter S 191
Okamoto H 63 Poisson arrival rate 383
oligopolistic price competition 375 Polachek S 255
oligopoly 77, 90, 399 pollution 103, 209, 335
OLG, see overlapping generations damage 103, 105
model local 103
Oliva MA 73 transboundary 78, 103
one-sector growth (OSG) model portfolio
177, see also OSG equilibrium 420
O’Neill J 255 preference condition 172
Ono Y 246 PPP, see purchasing power parity
Oniki H 6-7, 286 preference 3, 21, 82, 203, 226, 260,
Oniki-Uzawa model 6, 241, 297, 429, see also taste
322, 373 additive 404
Oosterhaven J 205 change 188, 219, 275, 364, 480
opportunity cost 25, 28, 148 Cobb-Douglas 87
leisure 472 difference 253, 305, 390, 477
optimization 32 homothetic 377
organic growth 9 identical 55, 70, 86, 104, 130, 254,
Orphanides A 423, 431 346, 377
OSG order 228
approach 177, 184, 235, 238 rate of time 186, 190, 243, 320,
framework 177, 242, 467, 480 404, 423, 471
model 178, 237, 321 recursive 8, 243
Ottaviano G 324 relation 228
overlapping generations (OLG) structure 228, 480
model 7, 229, 241 present-value shadow price 186
price
Palivos T 430, 532 arbitrage 165
Panagariya A 10, 72, 95 equality 206
Parente S 328 index 83, 155
Park WG 343 structure 15
Pasinetti LL 285 product-cycle model 381
path-dependent 326, 333 production function 5, 12, 43, 64,
Patinkin D 421 72, 131, 140, 179, 193, 206,
Pavcnik N 175 230, 244, 252, 258, 266, 288,
Pearl LR 432 341, 371, 391, 404, 448, 476
Perez-Sebastian F 193 Cobb-Douglas 33, 57, 64, 95,
perfect capital mobility 19, 242, 246 108, 118, 126, 298, 307, 375
perfect competition 8, 13, 241, 298, homogenous of degree one 180
373, 438, 481 neoclassical 36, 40, 60, 117, 179,
518 Index
Wang Z 205
Warner AM 192
Warner JT 480
Weaver N 328
Weil D 255, 366
Weinstein DE 51
Weizsäcker CC 323
welfare 9, 24, 78, 103, 117, 190,
381, 438
Westphal LE 398
Whinston MD 179
Wilson CA 73
Winter SG 12, 175, 324
Winters LA 174
Wirl F 480
Wong KY 5, 12-3, 41-2, 49, 51, 72,
90, 93, 107, 176
Woodland AD 33
worse off 39, 118
Yabuchi S 118
Yang GF 381
Yano M 326
Yeates AJ 432
Yip CK 423, 430, 448
Zeng DZ 82
Zhang J 432
Zhang WB 15-6, 64, 117, 129, 238,
178, 184-5, 203-4, 207-8, 226-
7, 238, 242, 247, 252, 286, 326,
333-4, 336, 338, 381, 388-401,
417, 438, 446, 455, 467, 475-6,
478-80, 482
Ziad A 227