PROBABILITY (WWW - Freeupscmaterials.wordpress - Com)
PROBABILITY (WWW - Freeupscmaterials.wordpress - Com)
PROBABILITY (WWW - Freeupscmaterials.wordpress - Com)
Probability
Introduction each suit, namely Spades, Clubs, Hearts and
Diamonds. Cards of spades and clubs are black
Historically, probability theory began with the study cards. Cards of hearts and diamonds are red cards.
of games of chance, such as roulette and cards. There are 4 honours of each suit. These are Aces,
Apart from games, uncertainty prevails in business Kings, Queens and Jacks. These are called face
and other aspects of life. cards.
“Probabilit y is a concept which numerically
measures the degree of uncertainty and therefore Sample Space
of certainty of the occurrence of events.”
Before defining probability, we shall give certain The set of all possible outcomes in a r andom
concepts used therein. experiment is called a sample space and it is
generally denoted by S.
Experiment Each element of a sample space is called a
sample point.
An operation which can produce some well-defined Ex. 1: In t ossing a fair coin, t her e ar e t wo
outcomes, is known as an experiment. possible outcomes, namely head (H) and
When we perform an experiment in science or t ail (T). So, t he sample space in t his
engineering and repeat the same under identical experiment is given by S = {H, T}
conditions, we get almost the same result every Ex. 2: When we throw a die it can result in any
time. of the six numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6. So the
But, t her e ar e exper iment s, which when sample space is given by
repeated under identical conditions, do not produce S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
the same outcome every time. For example, if we Ex. 3: When two coins are tossed together, the
toss a fair coin, we may get a head or a tail. Now, sample space is
if we make further trials, ie, toss the coin again S = {HT, TH, HH, TT}
and again the outcome of each trial depends on Here HT shows the head on the first coin
chance and it is not the same each time. Sometimes and t ail on t he second. Similarly, TH
the head appear and sometimes the tail. stands for tail on the first one and head
on the second; HH means head on each
Random Experiment
and TT means tail on each.
If in each trial of an experiment conducted under Ex. 4: From a group of 3 boys and 2 girls we
identical conditions, the outcome is not unique, select two children. What would be the
but may be any of the possible outcomes then such sample space of this experiment? If we
an experiment is known as a random experiment. denote the boys as B1, B2, B3 and the girls
In a random experiment, the outcome of each as G 1, G 2 ; then the sample space is
tr ial depends on chance which is beyond our described as
control and as such it cannot be predicted with S = { (B1, B2), (B1, B3), (B1, G1), (B1, G2),
certainty. (B2, B 3), (B 2, G 1), (B2, G2), (B3, G1),
For example, tossing a fair coin; rolling an (B3, G2), (G1, G2)}
unbiased die; drawing card from a well-shuffled Ex. 5: A coin is tossed twice, if the second throw
pack of cards; picking up a ball of certain colour results in a tail, then a die is thrown.
from a bag containing balls different colours are Describe the sample space.
all examples of random experiments. Clearly, the sample space is given by
When we throw a coin, then either a Head (H) S = {HH, TH, HT1, HT2, HT3, HT4, HT5,
or a Tall (T) appears. HT6, TT1, TT2, TT3, TT4, TT5, TT6}
A die is a solid cube, having 6 faces, marked 1, Ex. 6: In a simultaneous toss of a die and a coin,
2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 respectively. In throwing a die, the sample space is
the outcome is the number that appears on the S = {(1, H), (2, H), (3, H), (4, H), (5, H), (6, H),
uppermost face. The plural of die is dice. (1, T), (2, T), (3, T), (4, T), (5, T), (6, T)}
A pack of cards has 52 cards. It has 13 cards of
674 Concept of Arithmetic
K KUNDAN
event, called an impossible event. Since S S, So, Ec is also an event, called the complement of
so S is an event, called a sure event.
For example, in the throw of a die, sample space E. Sometimes we denote Ec by E or E. We call the
S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
event E as not-E. Clearly, E occurs when E does
Let E1 = event of getting a number less than 1.
And E2 = event of getting a number less than 7. not occur. Also, E occurs when E does not occur.
Clearly, the events E and ‘not-E’ are such that
Clearly, no outcome can be a number less than 1.
only one of them can occur in a trial and at least
So, E 1 is an impossible event. Clear ly, each one of them must occur.
outcome is a number less than 7. So, E2 is a sure
event. Mutually Exclusive Events
Two events E 1 and E 2 are said to be mutually
Elementary and Composite Events exclusive, if E 1 E 2 = . In other words, such
An event containing only a single sample point is events where the occurrence of one precludes the
called an elementary or simple event. occur rence of t he ot her , ar e called mut ually
Ev ent s ot her t han element ar y ar e called exclusive events.
composite or compound or mixed events. The events which are not mutually exclusive
are known as compatible events.
For example, in a simultanoues toss of two
Ex. 8: In throwing a die, we have S = {1, 2, 3, 4,
coins, the sample space is, 5, 6}
S = {HT, TH, HH, TT} Let E1 = event of getting a number less
Then, the event E1 = {TT} of getting both the than 3.
t ails is a simple ev ent . Also, t he ev ent And E2 = event of getting a number less
E2 = {HT, TH, TT} of getting at least one tail is a than 4.
compound event. Then, E1 = {1, 2} and E2 = {5, 6}
Clearly, E1 E2 =
Occurrence of an Event So, E1 and E2 are mutually exclusive.
In a random experiment, let S be the sample space Ex. 9: Let us consider a simultaneous toss of two
and E S, so that E is an event. coins.
Let be an outcome of a trial. Then S = {HT, TH, HH, TT}
Probability 675
K KUNDAN
= n (S)
Two events are said to be independent, if the
occurr ence of one does not depend upon the
occurrence of the other. Odds in Favour of an Event and Odds
The event s which are not independent ar e Against an Event
known as dependent events.
Suppose we toss to unbiased coins. If the number of ways in which an event can occur
Let E1 = event of occurrence of head on first be m and the number of ways in which it does not
coin. occur be n, then
And E2 = event of occurrence of head on second m
coin. (i) odds in favour of the event = and
Clearly, the occurrence of head on second coin n
does not depend upon the occurrence of head on n
first coin. So E1 and E2 are independent events. (ii) odds against the event = .
m
Algebra of Events
Important Results on Probability
In a random experiment, let the sample space be
S. Let E S and F S. Then, E as well as F is an I. In a random experiment, if S is the sample
event. space, and E is an event, then
We say that (i) P(E) 0; ie probability of occurrence of
(i) (E F) is an event that occurs only when an event is always non-negative.
each one of E and F occurs ie it denotes (ii) P() = 0; ie probability of occurrence of an
the event of simultaneous occurrence of both impossible event is 0.
the events E and F. (iii) P(S) = 1; ie probability of occurrence of a
(ii) (E F) is an event that occurs only when E sure event is 1.
occurs or F occurs or both occur. II. If E and F are mutually exclusive events, then
ie it denotes the events of occurrence of at (i) P(E F) = 0 and
least one of the events E and F. (ii) P(E F) = P(E) + P(F)
Note: (a) For mutually exclusive events E
(iii) (E – F) denotes the occurrence of event E
and F, we have
but not F.
P(E or F) = P(E F) = P(E) + P(F)
676 Concept of Arithmetic
K KUNDAN
= 36 Let E be the event of selecting a prime
Let E be the event of getting a total of 7. number
Then, E = {(1, 6), (2, 5), (3, 4), (4, 3), (5, 2), Then, E = {2, 3, 5, 7, 11, 13, 17, 19, 23}
(6, 1)} n (E) 9
Thus, n(E) = 6 P(E) = n (S) 25
n (E) 6 1 Ex. 15: Ti ckets numbered from 1 t o 20 are
P(a total of 7) = n (S) 36 6
mixed up together and then a ticket is
Ex. 12: A coi n is tossed successi v el y three drawn at random . What i s the
times. Find the probability of getting probabi l i ty t hat the ti cket has a
exactly one head or two heads. number which is a multiple of 3 or 7?
Soln: Let S be the sample space. Then, Soln: Clearly, the sample space S has 20 points.
S = {HHH, HHT, HTH, THH, TTH, THT, Let E be the event of getting a multiple of
HTT, TTT} 3 or 7.
Let E be the event of getting exactly one Then E = {3, 6, 9, 12, 15, 18, 7, 14}
head or exactly two heads. P(a multiple of 3 or 7)
Then, E = {HHT, HTH, THH, HTT, THT, n (E) 8 2
TTH} = P(E) = n (S) 20 5
Clearly, n(E) = 6 and n(S) = 8
Ex. 16: One card is drawn from a pack of 52
n (E) 6 3 car ds, each of t he 52 car ds bei ng
P(E) = n (S) 8 4
equally likely to be drawn. Find the
Ex. 13: Three unbiased coins are tossed. What probability that
is the probability of getting (i) the card drawn is red;
(i) all heads (ii) the card drawn is king;
(ii) two heads (iii) the card drawn is red and a king;
(iii) one head (iv) the card drawn is either red or a
(iv) at least one head king.
(v) at least two heads? Soln: Let S denote the sample space. Then n(S)
= 52
(i) Let E1 be the event of drawing a red card.
Probability 677
Since the number of red cards is 26, we Ex. 19: A bag contains 8 red and 5 white balls.
have n(E1) = 26 Three balls are drawn at random. Find
the probability that
n (E1 ) 26 1
P(a red card) = P(E1) = (i) all the three balls are white;
n (S) 52 2 (ii) all the three balls are red;
(ii) Let E2 be the event of drawing a king. (iii) one ball is red and two balls are
Since the number of kings is 4, we have white.
n(E2) = 4 Soln: Total number of balls = (8 + 5) = 13
Let S be the sample space. Then
n (E 2 ) 4 1
P(a king) = P(E2) = n(S) = number of ways of select ing 3
n (S) 52 13 balls out of 13
(iii) Let E3 be the event of drawing a red card 13! 13 12 11
which is a king. Since the number of red = 13
C3 = (13 3)!3! 3 2 1 = 286
kings is 2, we have n(E3) = 2
(i) Let E1 be the event of getting 3 white balls.
n (E3 ) 2 1 Th en ,
P(a red king) = P(E3) =
n (S) 52 26 n(E1) = number of ways of selecting 3 balls
(iv) Let E4 be the event of drawing a red card out of 5
or a king. 5! 54
Clearly, there are 26 red cards (including = C3 = (5 3)!3! 2
5
= 10
2 red kings) and there are 2 more kings.
Thus, n(E4) = (26 + 2 =) 28 P(getting 3 white balls)
P(a red card or a king) n (E1 ) 10 5
n (E 4 ) 28 7 = n (S) 286 143
= P(E4) = n (S) 52 13
(ii) Let E2 be the event of getting 3 red balls.
Ex. 17: What is the probability that a leap year Th en ,
n(E2) = Number of ways of selecting
K KUNDAN
select ed at r andom wi ll cont ain 53
Sundays? 3 balls out of 8
Soln: A leap year cont ains 366 days and 8! 876
therefore 52 weeks and 2 days. Clearly, = 8C3 = (8 - 3)!3! 3 2 = 56
there are 52 Sundays in 52 weeks.
For the remaining 2 days, they may be: P (getting 3 red balls)
(i) Sunday and Monday
n (E2 ) 56 28
(ii) Monday and Tuesday =
(iii) Tuesday and Wednesday n (S) 286 143
(iv) Wednesday and Thursday (iii) Let E3 be the event of getting 1 red and 2
(v) Thursday and Friday white balls.
(vi) Friday and Saturday Th en ,
(vii) Saturday and Sunday n(E3) = (number of ways of selecting 1 ball
Now, for having 53 Sundays in the year, out of 8) × (number of ways of
one of the above 2 days must be Sunday. selecting 2 balls out of 5)
Thus, out of the above 7 possibilities, 2 = 8C1 × 5C2 = 8 × 10 = 80
favour the event that one of the two days P(getting 1 red and 2 white balls)
is a Sunday.
n (E3 ) 80 40
2 =
required probability = n (S) 286 143
7
Ex. 18: A bag contains 9 black and 12 white Ex. 20: Two cards are drawn at random from
balls. One ball is drawn at random. a pack of 52 car ds. What i s t he
What is the probability that the ball probability that the drawn cards are
drawn is black? both aces?
Soln: Total number of balls = (9 + 12 =) 21 Soln: Let S be the sample space. Then,
Thus, if S is the sample space, then n(S) n(S) = number of ways of select ing 2
= 21C1 = 21 cards out of 52
And, if E is the event of getting a black
52! 52 51
ball, then n(E) = 9C1 = 9 = 52
C2 = (52 2)!2! = 1326
2
n (E) 9 3
P(getting a black ball) = n (S) 21 7 Let E be the event of getting both the aces.
Th en ,
678 Concept of Arithmetic
K KUNDAN
numbers 216 216 108
Then, n(E) = number of ways of selecting Ex. 24: Six dice are thrown simultaneously.
2 numbers out of 15. Find the probability that
(i) all of them show the same face.
15! 15 14
= 15
C2 = (15 2)!2! = 105 (ii) all of them show different faces.
2 (iii) Exactly thr ee of them show the
P(getting both prime) sam e face and r em aining t hree
show different faces.
n (E ) 105 21
= P(E) = n (S) 1225 245 (iv) at least four of them show the
same face.
(ii) Number of non-primes from 1 to 50 Soln: Since the 6 dice are thrown, the total
= (50 – 15) = 35 number of points in the sample space (S)
Let F be the event of getting both non- is 6 × 6 × 6 × 6 × 6 × 6 = 66
prime numbers. (i) Let E1 = event of getting all dice having
Then, n(F) = number of ways of selecting the same face.
2 numbers out of 35. Here, all dice show the same face means
we are getting same number on all six
35! 35 34 dice.
= 35
C2 = (35 2)!2! 2 = 595
Then, n(E1) = number of ways of selecting
P(getting both non-prime) 1 number out of 6 = 6C1
P(getting all the dice having the same
n (F ) 595 11
= P(F) = n (S) 1225 35 n (E1 ) 6 C1 6 1
face) = 6 6 5
n (S) 6 6 6
Ex. 22: The odds in favour of an event are 3 : (ii) Let E2 = event of getting all dice showing
5. Find the probability of occurrence of different faces
this event. Then, n(E 2) = t he tot al number of
Soln: Let E be the event. arrangements of 6 numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5,
Then, the number of cases: 6 by taking all at a time
(i) favourable to occurrence of E = 3
(ii) against the occurrence of E = 5 6!
total number of outcomes = 8 = 6P6 = (6 6)! = 6!
Probability 679
K KUNDAN
3! to each of these ways the remaining 7 digits
required probability can be arranged in 7P7 = 7! ways.
Therefore, the total number of nine-digit
6 6! numbers divisible by 4 is 16 × 7!
C1 5C3
n (E 3 ) 3! n(E) = 16 × 7!
= n (S)
66 16 7! 2
required probability =
(iv) Let E4 = event of getting at least 4 of the 9! 9
dice having the same face. Ex. 26: A four-digit number is formed with the
Now, at least four of them show the same digits 1, 3, 4, 5 with no repetition. Find
face means t he chance t hat ( i) t he num ber i s
(a) Four dice show the same f ace and divisible by 5 and (ii) the number is odd.
remaining 2 show distinct faces. This Soln: Let S be the sample space. Then
n(S) = the total number of ways in which
can be done in 6 C1 5C2 64!! ways. four-digit number can be formed is 4P4
= 4! = 24
(b) Fiv e dice show t he same f ace and (i) Let E1 = event of getting numbers divisible
remaining one shows a different face. by 5.
The number is divisible by 5 if its unit’s
This can be done in 6 C1 5C1 65!! place is 5. Therefore, unit’s place can be
filled in 1 way, the remaining 3 places
ways.
can be filled with other three digits in
(c) All the six dice show same face. This
(3P3 =)3! ways. Hence the number of ways
can be done in 6C1.
of forming the number divisible by 5 is
By the fundamental principle of addition,
= 3! = 6
required number of arrangements
n(E1) = 6
6 5 6! 6 5 6! n (E1 ) 6 1
= C1 C2 C1 C1 required probability = n (S) 24 4
4! 5!
(ii) Let E2 = event of getting odd numbers
6 5 6!
6 5 6!
6
n(E4) = C1 C 2 4! C1 C1 5! C1 To form odd numbers, the unit’s place can
be filled with 1, 3, or 5 ie in ( 3P 1 =) 3
680 Concept of Arithmetic
ways. The remaining three places can 2 boxes and this can be done in 29 ways.
then be filled with other digits in (3P3 =)3! Hence the total number of ways
ways. = (12C3 × 29)
Hence the number of ways in which the n(E) = 12C3 × 29
odd numbers can be formed is 3 × 3! = 18 12
n(E2) = 18 n (E) C3 29
required probability =
n (S) 312
n (E 2 ) 18 3
required probability = n (S) 24 4 Ex. 29: In shuffling a pack of 52 playing cards,
four are accidently dropped; find the
Ex. 27: What is the probability that four S’s chance that the missing cards should
come consecut i vel y i n the wor d be one from each suit.
‘MISSISSIPPI’? Soln: Let S be the sample space. Then
Soln: Let S be the sample space. Then n(S) = The total number of ways in which
n(S) = The total number of words that can 4 cards can be selected out of 52
be f or med by per muting t he 11 cards = 52C4
letters of the word ‘MISSISSIPPI’. Let E = Event of getting the missing cards
11! that should be one from each suit.
= 4! 4! 2!1! There are 4 suits and each suit contains
13 cards.
Let E = event of getting such words in Hence the number of ways of selecting 4
which four S’s come consecutively. cards, 1 from each suit
Since the sequence of 4 consecutive S’s = (13C1 × 13C1 × 13C1 × 13C1)
may start either from the first place or n(E) = (13C1 × 13C1 × 13C1 × 13C1)
second place, . . . ., or eight h place.
Therefore, there are 8 possible ways in
required probability =
13 C1 4 2197
which 4 S’s can come consecutively and 52 20825
C4
in each case the remaining 7 letters viz
7!
K KUNDAN
MIIIPPI can be arranged in ways. Addition Theorems on Probability
4! 2!1!
Thus the total number of ways in which So f ar we hav e calculat ed t he pr obabilit y of
occurrence of an event by using the definition only.
7! But sometimes it is not convenient to find the
4 S’s can come consecutively = 8
4! 2!1! number of cases favourable to the occurrence of an
event due to which the computation of probability
7! from the definition only is not possible. In such
n(E) = 8 4! 2!1! cases we calculate the probability of the event from
known pr obabilit ies of ot her ev ents. This is
n (E ) possible only when the given event is expressible
required probability = n (S)
as the union of two or more events.
For example, in the random experiment of
7! 11! 4 drawing 2 cards from a well shuffled pack of 52
= 8 4! 2!1! 4! 4! 2!1! 165 cards the event “getting both red cards or both
kings”, can be expressed as the union of two events
Ex. 28: Twelve ball s ar e di stri buted am ong
viz.
three boxes. What is the probability
E : getting two red cards.
that the first box will contain 3 balls?
F : getting two kings.
Soln: Let S be the sample space. Then
In t his art icle we intend t o discuss some
n(S) = The number of ways in which 12
theorems to find the probability of the union of
balls can be placed in 3 boxes
two or more events.
= Since each ball can go to any one
(i) Theorem-I: (Addition theorem for two events)
of the three boxes there are 3 ways
if E and F are two events associated with a random
in which a ball can go to any one
experiment, then
of the three boxes. Thus there are
312 ways in which 12 balls can be
P(E F) = P(E) + P(F) – P(E F)
Corollary: If E and F are mutually exclusive
placed in 3 boxes.
events, then
Let E = event getting first box that will
P(E F) = 0
contain 3 balls.
P(E F) = P(E) + P(F)
Number of ways in which 3 balls out of
This is t he addit ion theorem for mut ually
12 can be put in the first box is 12C3. Now
exclusive events.
the remaining 9 balls one to be placed in
Probability 681
(ii) Theorem-II: (Addition theorem for three n(F) = number of ways of select ing 2
events) if E, F, G are three events associated with kings out of 4 kings
a random experiment, then = 4C2 = 6
P(E F G) = P(E) + P(F) + P(G) - P(E F) – n(E F) = number of ways of selecting 2
P(F G) - P(E G) + P(E F G) red kings out of 2 red kings
Corollary: If E, F, G are mutually exclusive = 2C2 = 1
events, then
n (E ) 325
P(E F) = P(F G) = P(E G) = P(E F G) = 0 Hence, P(E) = n (S) 1326
P(E F G) = P(E) + P(F) + P(G)
This is the addition theorem for three mutually
exclusive events. n (F ) 6 1
P(F) = n (S) 1326 221 and
Ex. 30: A card is drawn at random from a well-
shuffled deck of 52 cards. Find the
probability of its being a spade or a n (E F ) 1
P(E F) =
king. n (S ) 1326
Soln: Let S be the sample space. Then P(both red or both kings)
n(S) = number of ways of selecting one = P(E or F) = P(E F)
card out of 52 cards = P(E) + P(F) - P(E F)
52! (By addition theorem)
= 52C1 = (52 1)!1! = 52
325 1 1 330 55
Let E = event of getting a spade =
And F = event of getting a king 1326 221 1326 1326 221
Then, E F = events of getting a king of Ex. 32: A basket contains 20 apples and 10
spade oranges out of which 5 apples and 3
Clearly, n(E) = 13, n(F) = 4 and n(E F) = 1 oranges are defective. If a person takes
out 2 at random what is the probability
n (E ) 13 1 that either both are apples or both are
P(F) = n (S) 52 4
good?
K KUNDAN
Soln: Let S be the sample space. Then,
n (F ) 4 1 n(S) = number of ways of selecting 2 out
P(F) = n (S) 52 13 and
of 30
n (E F ) 1 30! 30 29
P(E F) = = C2 = (30 2)! 2!
30
2
n (S ) 52
P(a spade or a king) = 15 × 29 = 435
= P(E or F) = P(E F) Let E = event of getting both apples.
= P(E) + P(F) - P(E F) And F = event of getting both good items.
(By addition theorem) Then, E F = event of getting 2 good
apples.
1 1 1 16 4 n(E) = number of ways of select ing 2
=
4 13 52 52 13 apples out of 20
4 20! 20 19
P (a spade or a king) = = 20
C2 = (20 2)! 2! 2 = 190
13
Ex. 31: Two cards are drawn at random from Ther e ar e 8 def ectiv e pieces and the
a well-shuffled pack of 52 cards. What remaining 22 are good.
is the probability that either both are n(F) = number of ways of selecting 2 good
red or both are kings? items out of 22
Soln: Let S be the sample space. Then, 22! 22 21
n(S) = number of ways of selecting 2 cards = 22
C2 = (23 2)! 2! 2 = 231
out of 52 cards
= 52C2 = 1326 There are only (20 - 5 =) 15 good apples.
Let E = event of getting both red cards n(E F) = number of ways of selecting 2
And, F = event of getting both kings good apples out of 15
Then, (E F) = event of getting two red
15! 15 14
kings = 15
C2 = (15 2)!2! 2 = 105
n(E) = number of ways of selecting 2
cards out of 26 red cards
= 26C2 = 325
682 Concept of Arithmetic
n (E ) 190 And F = {(3, 6), (6, 3), (4, 5), (5, 4)}
Hence, P(E) = n (S) 435 ; Clearly E F = . So, E and F are mutually
exclusive.
n (F ) 231
P(F) = n (S) 435 and n (E ) 6 1
P(E) = n (S) 36 6 and
n (E F ) 105
P(E F) = n (F ) 4 1
n (S ) 435 P(F) = n (S) 36 9
P(both apple or both good)
So, P(a doublet or a total of 9)
= P(E or F) = P(E F)
= P(E or F) = P(E F)
= P(E) + P(F) - P(E F)
= P(E) + P(F)
[By addition theorem]
[ E and F are
190 231 105 mutually exclusive]
=
435 435 435 1 1 5
=
6 9 18
190 231 105 316 P(neither a doublet nor a total of 9)
=
435 435 = 1 - P(a doublet or a total of 9)
Ex. 33: Two di ce ar e tossed once. Fi nd t he
5 13
probability of getting an even number = 1
on first die or a total of 8. 18 18
Soln: Let S be the sample space. Then, Ex. 35: A di e is t hrown t wi ce. What is t he
n(S) = 6 × 6 = 36 probability that at least one of the two
Let E = event of getting an even number throws comes up with the number 4?
on first die Soln: Let S be the sample space. Then,
And, F = event of getting a total of 8 n(S) = 6 × 6 = 36
Then, E F = event of getting an even Let E1 = the event that the first throw
number on first die and a total of 8 shows 4.
K KUNDAN
Now, E = {(2, 1), (2, 2), (2, 3), (2, 4), And, E2 = the event that the second throw
(2, 5), (2, 6), (4, 1), (4, 2), (4, 3), (4, 4), (4, shows 4.
5), (4, 6), (6, 1), (6, 2), (6, 3), (6, 4), (6, 5), E1 E2 = the event showing 4 in each
(6, 6)} thr ow.
F = {(2, 6), (6, 2), (3, 5), (5, 3), (4, 4)} Then, E1 = {(4, 1), (4, 2), (4, 3), (4, 4),
and E F = {(2, 6), (6, 2), (4, 4)} (4, 5), (4, 6)};
n(E) = 18, n(F) = 5 and n(E F) = 3 E 2 = {(1, 4), (2, 4), (3, 4), (4, 4),
(5, 4), (6, 4)}
n (E ) 18 1
Hence, P(E) = n (S) 36 2 ; and E1 E2 = {(4, 4)}
n(E1) = 6, n(E2) = 6 and n(E1 E2) = 1
n (F ) 5 6 1
P(F) = n (S) 36 and Hence, P(E1) =
36 6
6 1
n (E F ) 3 1 P(E2) = and
P(E F) = 36 6
n (S) 36 12
1
P(even number on first die or a total 8) P(E1 E2) =
36
= P(E or F) = P(E F)
= P(E) + P(F) – P(E F) P(at least one 4) = P(E1 or E2)
= P(E1 E2)
1 5 1 20 5 = P(E1) + P(E2) - P(E1 E2)
=
2 36 12 36 9
1 1 1 11
Ex. 34: In a single throw of two dice, find the =
6 6 36 36
probability that neither a doublet nor
a total of 9 will appear. Ex. 36: A card is drawn from a deck of 52
Soln: Let S be the sample space. Then, cards. Find the probability of getting
n(S) = 6 × 6 = 36 a king or a heart or a red card.
Let E = the event of getting a doublet. Soln: Let S be the sample space. Then,
And, F = the event of getting a total of 9. n(S) = number of selecting 1 card out of
Then E = {(1, 1), (2, 2), (3, 3), (4, 4), 52.
(5, 5), (6, 6)} = 52C1 = 52
Probability 683
4
1 13 1
; Conditional Probability
Hence, P(E) = ; P(F) =
52 13 52 4
Let E and F be two events associated with a random
26 1 experiment. Then, the probability of occurrence of
P(G) = ; E under the condition that F has already occured
52 2
and P(F) 0, is called the conditional probability
1 2 1 and it is denoted by P(E/F).
P(E F) = ; P(E G) = ; Thus, P(E/F) = Probability of occurrence of E given
52 52 26
that F has already occurred.
K KUNDAN
13 1 Similarly, P(F/E) = Probability of occurrence of F
P(F G) = given that E has already occured.
52 4
Sometimes, P(E/F) is also used to denote the
1 probability of occurrence of E when F occurs.
and P(E F G) = Similarly, P(F/E) is used to denote the probability
52
P(a king or a heart or a red card) of F when E occurs.
= P(E or F or G) = P(E F G) Following examples will illust rat e v ar ious
= P(E) + P(F) + P(G) – P(E F) – P(F G) meanings of these notations.
– P(E G) + P(E F G) Ex. 38: Suppose a bag contains 5 white and 4
red balls. Two balls are drawn from
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 the bag one after the other without
=
13 4 2 52 4 26 52 replacement. Consider the following
events.
28 7 E = event of drawing a white ball in the
=
52 13 first draw
Ex. 37: Four cards are drawn at a time from F = event of drawing a red ball in second
a pack of 52 playing cards. Find the draw
probability of getting all the four cards Now, P(F/E) = Probability of drawing a
of the same suit. red ball in second draw given that a white
Soln: Let S be the sample space. ball has already been drawn in the first
Then, n(S) = number of ways of selecting draw.
4 out of 52 Since 8 balls are left after drawing a white
= 52C4 ball in first draw and out of these 8 balls,
Let E1, E2, E3, E4 be the events of getting 4 balls are red, therefore,
‘all spades’, ‘all clubs’, ‘all hearts’ and ‘all 4
C1 4 1
diamonds’ respectively. P(F/E) = 8
Then, n(E 1) = 13 C 4 ; n(E 2 ) = 13C 4 ; n(E 3 ) C1 8 2
= 13C4 and n(E4) = 13C4 Note that P(E/F) is not meaningful in this
13 13 experiment because E cannot occur after
C4 C4 the occurrence of F.
Hence, P(E1) = 52 ; P(E2) = 52
C4 C4
684 Concept of Arithmetic
K KUNDAN
draw
t he num bers appear ing is obser ved
Required probability = Probability of getting
t o be 6. What i s the condit i onal
a white ball in first draw and black ball
probabi l i ty t hat the num ber 4 has
in second draw
appeared at least once?
= P(A and B) = P(A B)
Soln: Consider the events:
= P(A) × P(B/A) ... (i)
E = number 4 appears at least once.
F = the sum of the numbers appearing is 6. n ( A ) 10 C1 10 2
Now, P(A) = n (S) 25
Th en , C1 25 5
E = {(4, 1), (4, 2), (4, 3), (4, 4), (4, 5), (4, 6), And P(B/A) = Probability of getting a black
(6, 4), (5, 4), (3, 4), (2, 4), (1, 4)} ball in second draw when a white ball
n(E) = 11 has already been drawn in first drawn.
and, 15
C1
15 5
F = {(1, 5), (2, 4), (3, 3), (4, 2), (5, 1)} =
24
n(F) = 5 C1 24 8
(E F) = {(2, 4), (4, 2)} From (i), required probability
n(E F) = 2
2 5 1
The required probability = P(A B) = P(A) × P(B/A) =
5 8 4
n (E F ) 2 Ex. 42: Find the pr obabi l it y of drawi ng a
= P(E/F) =
n (F ) 5 di am ond card i n each of t he t wo
Note: It is to note here that in Ex. 38 consecutive draws from a well-shuffled
only P(F/E) is meaningful whereas in Ex. pack of cards, if the card drawn is
39 P(E/F) and P(F/E) both are meaningful. not replaced after the first draw.
This is due to the reason that in Ex. 38 Soln: Let E = event of drawing a diamond card
events E and F are subsets of two different in the first draw
sample spaces and they occur one after and F = event of dr awing a diamond
the other whereas in Ex. 39, events E card in the second draw
and F are subsets of the same sample space Then, required probability
and they can occur together also. = P(E F) = P(E) × P(F/E) ... (i)
13
C1 13 1
P(E) = 52
C1 52 4
Probability 685
After drawing a diamond card in first draw After drawing 3 white balls in first draw
51 cards are left out of which 12 cards 5 + 8 - 3 =) 10 balls are left in the bag, out
are diamond cards. of which 8 are black balls
P(F/E) = Pr obabilit y of drawing a 8
diamond car d in second draw when a C3 56 7
P(F/E) = 10
diamond card has already been drawn in C3 120 15
first draw
Hence, required probability
12
C112 4 = P(E F) = P(E) × P(F/E)
= 51
C1 51 17 5 7 7
Now, from (i), =
143 15 429
1 4 1 Ex. 45: Two balls drawn from an urn containing
P(E F) = P(E) × P(F/E) =
4 17 17 2 white, 3 red and 4 black balls one by
Ex. 43: A bag contains 19 tickets, numbered one without replacement. What is the
from 1 to 19. A ticket is drawn and probability that at least one ball is
then another ticket is drawn without red?
replacement. Find the probability that Soln: Let E = event of not getting a red ball
both tickets will show even numbers. in first draw
Soln: Let E = event of dr awing an even And F = event of not getting a red ball
numbered ticket in first draw in second draw
And, Then, required probability
F = event of drawing an even numbered = Probability that at least one ball is red
ticket in the second draw. = 1 – Probability that none is red
Th en , = 1 - P(E and F)
Required probability = 1 - P(E F)
= P(E F) = P(E) × P(F/E) ... (i) = 1 - P(E) × P(F/E) ... (i)
Since there are 19 tickets, numbered 1 to Now, P(E) = Probability of not getting a
red ball in first draw
K KUNDAN
19, in the bag but of which 9 are even
numbers viz 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12, 14, 16, 18. = Probability of getting an other colour
(white or black) ball in first draw
9
Therefore, P(E) = 6 2
19
Since the ticket drawn in the first draw =
9 3
is not replaced, therefore, second ticket When another colour ball is drawn in first
drawn is from the remaining 18 tickets, draw there are 5 other colour (white or
out of which 8 are even numbered. black) balls and 3 red balls, out of which
8 4 one other colour ball can be drawn in
P(F/E) = (5C1 =) 5 ways.
18 9
Hence, required probability 5
= P(E F) = P(E) × P(F/E) P(F/E) =
8
9 4 4 From (i), required probability
= = 1 - P(E) × P(F/E)
19 9 19
Ex. 44: An urn contains 5 white and 8 black 2 5 7
balls. Two successive drawings of three = 1
3 8 12
balls at a time are made such that the Ex. 46: If A and B are two events such that
balls are not replaced before the second P(A) = 0.4, P(B) = 0.8 and P(B/A) = 0.6,
draw. Find the probability that the find P(A/B) and P(A B).
fir st dr aw gi v es 3 whit e bal ls and
second draw gives 3 black balls. P(A B)
Soln: Let E = event of drawing 3 white balls Soln: We know that P(B/A) = P(A)
in the first draw
P(A B) = P(A) × P(B/A)
And F = event of drawing 3 black balls
= (0.4 × 0.6) = 0.24
in the second draw
Required probability P(A B) 0.24
= P(E F) = P(E) × P(F/E) ... (i) So, P(A/B) = P(B) = 0.8 = 0.3
5
C3 10 5 And, P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A B)
Now, P(E) = 13
C3 286 143 = (0.4 + 0.8 - 0.24) = 0.96
686 Concept of Arithmetic
Ex. 47: A die is rolled. If the outcome is an odd Ex. 50: A die is thrown twice and the sum of the
number, what is the probability that it numbers appearing is observed to be 7.
is prime? What is the conditional probability that
Soln: When a die is rolled the sample space is the number 2 has appeared at least
S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} once?
Let E = event of getting an odd number Soln: Let E = the event of getting the sum 7.
And, F = event of getting a prime number and, F = the event of getting at least one 2.
Then, E = {1, 3, 5}; F = {2, 3, 5} and Then, E = {(1, 6), (2, 5), (3, 4), (4, 3),
E F = {3, 5} (5, 2), (6, 1)}
and, F = {(1, 2), (2, 2), (3, 2), (4, 2),
3 1 3 1
P(E) = , P(F) = and (5, 2), (6, 2), (2, 1), (2, 3),
6 2 6 2 (2, 4), (2, 5), (2, 6)}
Then, E F = {(2, 5), (5, 2)}
2 1
P(E F) = Now, we have to find P(F/E)
6 3
P(E F) 2 1
Suppose E has already occurred and then P(F/E) =
P(E) 6 3
F occurs.
Then, we have to find P(F/E) Ex. 51: Two unbiased dice are thrown. Find the
probabi l i ty t hat the sum is 8 or
P(E F) 1 2 2 greater, if 4 appears on the first die.
Now, P(F/E) =
P(E) 3 1 3 Soln: Let E = the event of getting 4 on the first
die
Ex. 48: Three fair coins are tossed. Find the
and, F = the event of getting the sum 8
probability that they are all tails, if
or greater
one of the coins shows a tail.
E = {(4, 1), (4, 2), (4, 3), (4, 4), (4, 5),
Soln: Here S = {HHT, HTH, THH, HTT, THT,
(4, 6)
TTH, HHH, TTT}
and, F = {(4, 4), (4, 5), (4, 6), (5, 4), (5, 5),
Let E = event that one of the coins shows
(5, 6), (6, 2), (2, 6), (3, 5), (3, 6), (5, 3), (6,
a tail
3), (6, 4), (6, 5), (6, 6)}
K KUNDAN
and, F = event that they are all tails
E F = {(4, 4), (4, 5), (4, 6)}
Then, E = {HHT, HTH, THH, HTT, THT,
required probability
TTH, TTT}
and F = {TTT} P(E F) 3 1
= P(F/E) =
Clearly, E F = {TTT} P(E) 6 2
7 1 1 Ex. 52: I n a cl ass 40% st udents r ead
P(E) = , P(F) = and P(E F) = mathemat ics, 25% biol ogy and 15%
8 8 8
bot h mathem atics and bi ology. O ne
P(E F) 1 8 1 student is selected at random. Find the
So, P(F/E) =
P(E) 8 7 7 probability that
Ex. 49: A coin is tossed t wice and the four (i) he reads mathematics, if it is known
possible outcomes are assumed to be that he reads biology;
equally likely. If E is the event ‘both (ii) he reads biology, if it is known that
head and tail have appeared’ and F be he reads mathematics.
the event, ‘at most one tail is observed’, Soln: Let E = the event of reading mathematics
find P(E), P(F), P(E/F) and P(F/E). and F = the event of reading biology
Soln: Here S = {HH, HT, TH, TT} 40 2 25 1
E = {HT, TH} and F = {HH, HT, TH} Then P(E) = ; P(F) =
100 5 100 4
E F = {HT, TH}
15 3
2 1 3 and P(E F) =
So, P(E) = ; P(F) = and 100 20
4 2 4
P(E F) 3 4 3
(i) P(E/F) =
2 1 P(F) 20 1 5
P(E F) =
4 2
P(E F) 3 5 3
P(E F) 1 4 2 (ii) P(F/E) =
P(E) 20 2 8
P(E/F) = P(F) 2 3 3
Ex. 53: A bag contains 5 white, 7 red and 8
black balls. If four balls are drawn one
P(E F) 1 2
And, P(F/E) = 1 by one without replacement, what is
P(E) 2 1 the probability that all are white?
Probability 687
Soln: Let A, B, C, D denote events of getting a remaining cards is 49 and there remains
white ball in first, second, third and fourth only one ace.
draw respectively.
1
Then, required probability on the fourth draw, P(an ace) =
= P(A B C D) 49
= P(A) × P(B/A) × P(C/A B) Hence,
× P(D/A B C) ... (i)
1 1 1 1 1
Now, P(all aces) =
P(A) = Probabilit y of dr awing a whit e 13 17 25 49 270725
Ex. 55: A box contains 3 red and 5 blue balls.
5 1 Two balls are drawn one at a time at
ball in first draw =
20 4 random without replacement. Find the
When a white ball is drawn in the first probability of getting 1 red and 1 blue
draw there are 19 balls left in the bag, out ball.
of which 4 are white Soln: 1 red and 1 blue ball can be obtained in 2
ways; either (1st red ball and 2nd blue
4
P(B/A) = ball) or (1st blue ball and 2nd red ball).
19 Case I: Initially, there are 8 balls in all,
Since t he ball drawn is not replaced, out of which 3 are red.
therefore, after drawing a white ball in
3
second draw there are 18 balls left in the C1 3
P(1st ball red) = 8
bag, out of which 3 are white. C1 8
3 1 Since replacement is not being made, after
P(C/A B) =
18 6 the first draw, we have 7 balls in all, out
After drawing a white ball in third draw of which 5 are blue.
there are 17 balls left in the bag, out of 5
C1 5
which 2 are white. P(2nd ball blue) = 7
7
K KUNDAN
C1
2
P(D/A B C) = Hence, P(1st ball red and 2nd ball blue)
17
Hence, required probability 3 5 15
=
= P(A B C D) 8 7 56
= P(A) × P(B/A) × P(C/A B) Case II: Initially there are 8 balls in all
× P(D/A B C) out of which 5 are blue.
1 4 1 2 1 5
= P(1st ball blue) =
4 19 6 17 969 8
Ex. 54: Four cards are drawn successively one Since replacement is not being made, after
after the other from a well-shuffled the first draw, we have 7 balls in all, out
pack of 52 cards. If the cards are not of which 3 are red
replaced, find the probability that all
of them are aces. 3
P(2nd ball red) =
7
4 1
Soln: On first draw, P(an ace) = Hence, P(1st ball blue and 2nd ball red)
52 13
Since the card drawn is not replaced, the 5 3 15
=
second card is drawn from the remaining 8 7 56
51 cards. Also, one ace has already been Now, the above two cases are mutually
drawn, there are now three remaining exclusive
aces. P(1 red ball and 1 blue ball)
3 1 15 15 15
on second draw, P(an ace) = =
51 17 56 56 28
Now, there remain 50 cards containing 2
aces. Independent Events
2 1 Events are said to be independent, if the occurrence
on third draw, P(an ace) = or non-occur r ence of one does not af f ect the
50 25
probability of the occurrence or non-occurrence of
Af ter the thir d dr aw, t he number of
the other.
688 Concept of Arithmetic
Suppose a bag contains 6 white and 3 red balls. Ex. 57: A can solve 90% of the problems given
Two balls are drawn from the bag one after the in a book and B can solve 70%. What
other. Consider the events: is the probability that at least one of
E = drawing a white ball in first draw them will solve a problem, selected at
F = drawing a red ball in second draw random from the book?
If the ball drawn in the first draw is not replaced Soln: Let E = t he ev ent t hat A solv es t he
back in the bag, then events E and F are dependent pr oblem
events because P(F) is incr eased or decreased And, let F = the ev ent t hat B solves
according as the first draw results as a white or the problem
red ball. If the ball drawn in first draw is replaced Clearly, E and F are independent events
back in the bag, then E and F are independent 90 9
events because P(F) remains same whether we get Now, P(E) = and
100 10
a white ball or a red ball in first draw ie
70 7
P(F) = P(F/E) and P(F/ E ) P(F) =
100 10
It is evident from the above discussion that if E
and F are two independent events associated with By addit ion t heor em f or independent
a random experiment, then events, we have
P(E/F) = P(E) and P(F/E) = P(F) and vice-versa. P(E F) = 1 P ( E ) P ( F ) ... (i)
K KUNDAN
P(En)
From the above, we have
Addition Theorem For Independent 9 7
Events P(E) = and P(F) =
10 10
Theorem: If E1, E2, ..., En are n independent events P(E F) = P(E) × P(F)
associated with a random experiment, then 9 7 63
P(E1 E2 E3 ... En) =
10 100 100
= 1 P(E1 ) P(E2 ) ... P(En ) [ E and F are independent events]
Ex. 56: An unbiased die is tossed twice. Find Hence, P(E or F) = P(E F)
the probability of getting a 4, 5 or 6 on = P(E) + P(F) – P(E F)
the first toss and a 1, 2, 3 or 4 on the
9 7 63 97
second toss. = = 0.97
Soln: Let E = event of getting a 4, 5 or 6 on 10 10 100 100
the first toss Ex. 58: The probability that A hits a target is
and, F = event of getting a 1, 2, 3 or 4 1
on the second toss. and the probability that B hits it
3
Then, clearly, E and F are independent
2
events. is . What is the probability that
Sample space in each case is 5
S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} the target will be hit, if each one of A
and B shoots at the target?
3 1 4 2 Soln: Let E = the event that A hits the target
P(E) = and P(F) =
6 2 6 3 and F = the event that B hits the target
Hence, P(getting a 4, 5 or 6 on first toss 1 2
and a 1, 2, 3 or 4 on 2nd toss) As given, we have P(E) = and P(F) =
3 5
= P(E F)
Clearly, E and F are independent events.
1 2 1
= P(E) × F(F) = P(target is hit) = P(A hits or B hits)
2 3 3 = P(E F)
(By mult iplication t heor em f or
independent events) = 1 P(E) P(F)
Probability 689
K KUNDAN
probability that Then, E = the event that A tells a lie,
(i) both of them will be selected? and F = the event that B tells a lie
(ii) only one of them will be selected? Clearly, E and F are independent events.
(iii) none of them will be selected?
(iv) at l east one of t hem wi l l be Hence, E and F as well as E and F are
selected? independent
[MAT–2005]
75 3
Soln: Let E = the event that the husband is Now, P(E) = and
selected 100 4
and, F = t he event that t he wif e is
80 4
select ed P(F) =
Clearly, E and F are independent events. 100 5
3 1
1 1 P( E ) = 1 and
Now, P(E) = and P(F) = 4 4
7 5
1 6 4 1
P( F ) = 1
P( E ) = 1 and 5 5
7 7
P(A and B contradict each other)
1 4
P( F ) = 1 = P[(A speaks the truth and B tells a
5 5 lie) or (A tells a lie and B speaks the
(i) P(both of them will be selected) truth)]
= P(E and F) = P(E F) = P(E) × P(F)
= P[(E F ) (E F )]
1 1 1
=
7 5 35 = P[(E F ) (E F )]
(ii) P(only one of them will be selected)
= P(E and not-F) or P(F and not-E) [ P[(E F ) (E F ) ]
= P[(E F ) (F E)] = P(E) × P( F ) + P( E ) × P(F)
= P[(E F ) (F E)] 3 1 1 4 7
=
4 5 4 5 20
[ P[(E F ) (F E )]
690 Concept of Arithmetic
1 1 1 = P(A) × P( B ) × P( C ) + P( A ) × P(B) × P( C )
Now, P(E1) = ; P(E2) = and P(E3) =
2 3 4 + P( A ) × P( B ) × P(C)
1 1 1 5 5 2 2 5 2 5 3
P( E1 ) = 1 =
2 2 3 7 8 3 7 8 3 7 8
1 2 25 5 5 75 25
P( E2 ) = 1 =
K KUNDAN
and
3 3 168 42 28 168 56
Ex. 63: Three groups of children contain 3 girls
1 3 and 1 boy; 2 girls and 2 boys; 1 girl
P( E3 ) = 1
4 4 and 3 boys respectively. One child is
P(none solves the problem) selected at random from each group.
= P[(not E1) and (not E2) and (not E3)] Find the chance that the three selected
comprise 1 girl and 2 boys.
= P( E1 E2 E3 ) = P( E1 ) × ( E2 ) × ( E3 )
Soln: Let B1, B2, B3 be the events of selecting a
[ E1 , E2 and E3 are independent] boy from first, second and third group
respectively. And let G1, G2 and G3 be the
1 2 3 1 events of selecting a girl from first, second
= and third group respectively.
2 3 4 4
1
Hence, P(the problem will be solved) C1 1
Then, P(B1) =
= 1 – P(none solves the problem) 4
C1 4
1 3
= 1 2
C1 2 1
4 4
P(B2) = 4 4 2
Ex. 62: The probabilities of A, B, C solving a C1
1 2 3
problem are , and respectively. 3
3 7 8 C1 3
P(B3) = 4
If all the three try to solve the problem C1 4
simultaneously, find the probability
3
that exactly one of them will solve it. C1 3
P(G1) = 4
Soln: Let A, B and C be the events of solving C1 4
the problem A, B and C respectively.
2
C1 2 1
Then, A , B , C are the respective events P(G2) = 4
C1 4 2
of not solving the problem by them
1
1 2 3 C1 1
Now, P(A) = ; P(B) = and P(C) = P(G3) = 4
3 7 8 C1 4
Probability 691
K KUNDAN
= P[(black ball from first bag) and (black Ex. 66: A bag contains 4 red and 3 black balls.
ball from second bag)] A second bag contains 2 red and 4 black
= P(black ball from first bag) × P(black ball balls. One bag is selected at random.
from second bag) Fr om t he sel ected bag, one bal l i s
2 5 5 drawn. Find the probability that the
= ball drawn is red.
6 8 24
1
(iii) P(one white ball and one black ball) Soln: Probability of choosing first bag =
= P[(black ball from first bag and white 2
from second) (Choosing 1 out of 2).
or, (whit e f r om f ir st and black f rom Probability of drawing a red ball from this
second)] 4
C1 4
= P(black f rom fir st and whit e fr om bag = 7
C1 7
second) + P(white from first and black
from second) P(Choosing first bag and drawing a red
2 3 4 5 1 5 13 1 4 2
= ball from it) =
6 8 6 8 8 12 24 2 7 7
Ex. 65: A bag contains 4 red and 5 black balls
1
and bag B contains 3 red and 7 black Probability of choosing second bag =
balls. One ball is drawn from bag A 2
and t wo from bag B. Find the Probability of drawing a red ball from this
probability that out of 3 balls, two are 2
black and one is red. C1 2 1
bag = 6
[MAT–1998] C1 6 3
Soln: Clearly, we have:
P(Choosing second bag and drawing a red
4
C1 4
P(red from first bag) = 9
1 1 1
C1 9 ball from it) =
2 3 6
5
C1 5
P(black from first bag) = 2 1 19
9
C1 9 P(a red ball) =
7 6 42
692 Concept of Arithmetic
Ex. 67: A, B and C shoot to hit a target. If A And, let F = the event of drawing 3 black
hits the target 4 times in 5 trials; B balls in second draw.
hits it 3 times in 4 trials and C hits it When the balls are replaced before the
2 t i m es i n 3 tr i als; what i s the second trial, E and F are independent
probability that the target is hit by at events.
least 2 persons? Required probability
[MAT–2009] = P(E F) = P(E) × P(F)
Soln: Let A, B and C be the events that A hits 5 8
the target, B hits the target and C hits the C3 C3 10 56
= 13
13
target respectively. C3 C3 286 286
Th en ,
140
4 3 2 =
P(A) = , P(B) = , P(C) = 20449
5 4 3
Note: Also see the Ex. 44. Ex. 44 is an
4 1 3 1 example of condit ional pr obabilit y,
P( A ) = 1 , P( B ) = 1 and whereas the above example is the case of
5 5 4 4
independent events.
2 1
P( C ) = 1 The Law of Total Probability
3 3
Case I: P(A, B and C all hit the target) Let S be the sample space and E1, E2, ..., En be n
= P(A B C) mut ually exclusiv e and exhaustiv e ev ent s
= P(A) × P(B) × P(C) associated with a random experiment. If E is any
4 3 2 2 event which occurs with E1 or E2 or E3 or .... or En,
= then
5 4 3 5
P(E) = P(E1) P(E/E1) + P(E2) P(E/E2) + ... +
Case II: P(A and B hit but not-C) P(En) P(E/En)
= P(A B C ) The law of total probability as stated above say
that if an event E can occur in n mutually exclusive
K KUNDAN
= P(A) × P(B) × P ( C ) ways, then the probability of occurrence of E is
the sum of the probabilities of various ways.
4 3 1 1
= Ex. 69: A bag contains 4 red and 3 black balls.
5 4 3 5 A second bag contains 2 red and 4 black
Case III: P(A and C hit but not-B) balls. One bag is selected at random.
Fr om t he sel ected bag, one bal l i s
= P(A C B )
drawn. Find the probability that the
= P(A) × P(C) × P( B ) ball drawn is red.
Soln: A red ball can be drawn in two mutually
4 2 1 2
exclusive ways:
=
5 3 4 15 (I) Selecting bag I and then drawing a
Case IV: P(B and C hit but not-A) red ball from it.
(II) Selecting bag II and then drawing a
= P( B C A )
red ball from it.
= P(B) × P(C) × P( A ) Let E1, E2 and E denote the events defined
as follows:
3 2 1 1
= E1 = Selecting bag I
4 3 5 10 E2 = Selecting bag II
All t he abov e cases being mut ually E = Drawing a red ball
exclusive, we have the required probability Since one of the two bags is select ed
2 1 2 1 5 randomly,
=
5 5 15 10 6 1 1
Ex. 68: An urn contains 5 white and 8 black therefore P(E1) = and P(E2) =
balls. Two successive draws of three 2 2
balls at a time are made such that the Now, P(E/E1) = Probability of drawing a
balls are replaced before the second r ed ball when t he f ir st bag has been
trial. Find the probability that the first chosen.
drawi ng wil l gi v e 3 whi t e and t he 4
second 3 black balls. = (Since first bag contains 4 red and
7
Soln: Let E = the ev ent of drawing 3 white
balls in first draw 3 black balls)
Probability 693
and P(E/E 2) = Probability of drawing a Ex. 71: In a bolt factory, machines A, B and C
red ball when t he second manufacture respectively 25%, 35% and
bag has been selected. 40% of the total bolts. Of their output
2 5%, 4% and 2% ar e respect i vel y
= (Since the second bag contains 2 defect i ve bol ts. A bol t i s dr awn at
6
red and 4 black balls) random from the product. If the bolt
Using the law of total probability, we have drawn is found to be defective, what is
P(red ball) = P(E) the probability that it is manufactured
= P(E1) P(E/E1) + P(E2) P(E/E2) by the machine B?
Soln: Let E1, E2, E3 and E be the events defined
1 4 1 2 19 as follows:
=
2 7 2 6 42 E1 = the bolt is manufactured by machine A
Ex. 70: In a bolt factory, machines A, B and C E2 = the bolt is manufactured by machine B
manufacture respectively 25%, 35% and E3 = the bolt is manufactured by machine C
40% of the total bolts. Of their output E = the bolt is defective.
5%, 4% and 2% ar e respect i vel y Th en ,
defect i ve bol ts. A bol t i s dr awn at P(E 1) = Probability that the bolt drawn is
random from the product. What is the manufactured by machine A
pr obabil i t y t hat t he bol t dr awn i s 25
defective? =
100
Soln: Let E1, E2, E3 and E be the events defined
as follows: P(E 2) = Probability that the bolt drawn is
E1 = the bolt is manufactured by machine A manufactured by machine B
E2 = the bolt is manufactured by machine B 35
E3 = the bolt is manufactured by machine C =
100
E = the bolt is defective. Then,
P(E 3) = Probability that the bolt drawn is
25 1 35 40 manufactured by machine C
; P(E ) =
K KUNDAN
P(E1) = 2
; P(E3) =
100 4 100 100 40
P(E/E1) = Probability that the bolt drawn =
100
is defective given the condition P(E/E1) = Probability that the bolt drawn
that it is manufactured by is def ect ive giv en t hat is
machine A manufactured by machine A
5 5
= =
100 100
4 4
Similarly, P(E/E2) = and Similarly, P(E/E2) = and
100 100
2
2 P(E/E3) =
P(E/E3) = 100
100
Using the law of total probability, we have Now, required probability = Probability that
P(E) = P(E 1 ) P(E/E 1) + P(E 2) P(E/E 2 ) + the bolt is manufactured by machine B
P(E3) P(E/E3) given that the bolt drawn is defective
25 5 35 4 40 2 P(E 2 ) P(E/E 2 )
= or, P(E2/E) =
100 100 100 100 100 100 P(E1 ) P(E/E1 ) P(E 2 ) P(E/E 2 )
P(E 3 ) P(E/E 3 )
= 0.0345
Baye’s Rule 35
4
Let S be the sample space and E1, E2, ..., En be n 100 100
= 25 5 35 4 40 2
mut ually exclusiv e and exhaustiv e ev ent s
associated with a random experiment. If E is any 100 100 100 100 100 100
event which occurs with E1 or E2 or, ... or En, then
140 140 28
=
P(Ei ) P(E/E i ) 125 140 80 345 69
P(Ei/E) = n ; where i = 1, 2, ..., n
i n
P(Ei ) P(E/E i )
694 Concept of Arithmetic
Ex. 72: Three boxes contain 6 red, 4 black; 4 Ex. 73: A dice is thrown 6 times. If “getting an
red, 6 black and 5 red, 5 black balls odd number” is a “success”, then find
r espect iv ely. O ne of t hese boxes i s the probability of 5 “successes”.
selected at random and a ball is drawn [MAT–1998]
from it. If the ball drawn is red, then Soln: In this question, a random experiment is
find the probability that it is drawn performed 6 times.
from the first box. n = 6
[MAT–1998] p = probability of getting an odd number
Soln: Let E1, E2, E3 and E be the events defined
3 1
as follows: in one throw =
E1 = box first is chosen 6 2
E2 = box second is chosen [Since there are 3 odd numbers (1, 3, 5)
E3 = box third is chosen and out of 6 numbers (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6) on the
E = ball drawn is red dice.]
Since there are three boxes and one of q = probability of non-occurrence of an
the three boxes is chosen at r andom, 1 1
therefore odd number in one throw = 1
2 2
1 Since, here, “getting an odd number” is
P(E1) = P(E2) = P(E3) = called a “success”
3
Hence r = 5 (required number of getting
If E1 has already occurred, then box first successes)
has been chosen which contains 6 red Required probability = nCr pr qn-r
and 4 black balls. The pr obabilit y of
5 6 5 5
6 6 1 1 1 1 3
= C5 6
drawing a red ball from it is . 2 2 2 2 32
10
Ex. 74: Suppose 6 coi ns ar e fl i pped
6 sim ul taneousl y. Then fi nd t he
Hence, P(E/E1) =
10 probability of getting at least one tail.
K KUNDANSimilarly, P(E/E2) =
P(E/E3) =
5
10
4
10
and
P(X = r) =
=
6
6
r
1 1
Cr
2 2
1
Cr
6
6 r
; r = 0, 1, 2, ..., 6
box. 2
By Bay’s rule, Hence, required probability
= P(X 1) = 1 - P(X = 0)
P(E1 ) P(E/E1 )
P(E1/E) = 1 1
6
63
P(E1 ) P(E/E1 ) P(E 2 ) P(E/E 2 ) 6
= 1 C0 1
P(E 3 ) P(E/E 3 ) 2 64 64
Ex. 75: A coin is tossed 5 times. What is the
1 6 probability that head appears an odd
3 10 6 2 number of times?
=
1 6 1 4 1 5 15 5 Soln: We know that if a coin is tossed n times,
3 10 3 10 3 10 then the probability that head will turn
1
Binomial Probability up an odd number of times is
2
. Let us
If a random experiment is performed ‘n’ times under see how?
similar condit ions, then the pr obabilit y of t he Let X denote the number of heads in n
occurrence of the event E exactly ‘r’ times in ‘n’ trials trials.
is P(X = r) and P(X = r) = nCr pr qn-r; where r = 0, 1, 2, Th en ,
3, ... n; p = the probability of occurrence of event E
r n r n
in one trial and q = (1 - p) = probability of non- n 1 1 1
P(X = r) = Cr n Cr
occurrence of event E in one trial (ie p + q = 1). 2 2 2
Probability 695
K KUNDAN
= Cr C51
2
Required probability p 51
= P(X 6) or, 1 p 50
= P(X = 6) + P(X = 7) + P(X = 8)
1 p 50
8 or,
1 8 8 8 p 51
= ( C6 C 7 C8 )
2 1 50 101
or, p 51 1 51
1 8! 8! 8!
= 51
256 (8 6)! 6! (8 7)! 7! (8 8 )! 8! p =
101
1 8 7 37 Ex. 79: The probability that a marksman will
= 8 1
256 2 256 1
hit a target is given as . Then find
Ex. 77: The probability that a student is not a 5
the probability that at least one hit in
1 10 shots.
swimmer is . Then find the probability Soln: Let X denote the number of shots in which
5
t hat out of t he 5 st udent s 4 ar e a marksman hit a target in 10 shots. Then
swimm er s. the probability of r hits is given by P(X = r)
[MAT– 2002] r 10 r
Soln: There are 5 students. Hence the random 10 1 4
= Cr
experiment is performed 5 times. 5 5
n = 5 Thus, the required probability
p = probability that a student is a swimmer = P(X 1) = 1 - P(X = 0)
0 10 10
1 4 10 1 4 4
= 1 = 1 C0 1
5 5 5 5 5