KRI's Role in Operational Risk Management
KRI's Role in Operational Risk Management
KRI's Role in Operational Risk Management
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Key Risk Indicators – Their Role
in Operational Risk Management
and Measurement
Jonathan Davies, Mike Finlay,
Tara McLenaghen, Duncan Wilson
RiskBusiness International Limited
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initiative which can help many firms get their own KRI pro-
grammes started.
What is an indicator?
KRIs are measurable metrics or indicators that track exposure or
loss, or, as one person put it, “trouble”. Anything that can perform
this function may be considered a risk indicator. The indicator
becomes key when it tracks an especially important exposure, or it
does so especially well, or ideally both. In operational risk, we are
interested in KRIs that monitor operational risk. Operational risk
can be defined as the risk of loss resulting from inadequate or failed
processes, systems, human performance or external events.
The number of customer complaints is an example of a risk indi-
cator. As customer complaints increase, the probability that there
are some underlying and potentially systemic mistakes and errors
of judgement being made is likely to rise. In other words, there is a
rationale for thinking that, at least in some ranges, changes in the
value of this indicator are likely to be associated with changes in
operational risk exposure or operational loss experience.
The number of customer complaints is also an example of a com-
mon indicator – an indicator that would seem to be relevant at most
points of risk in an organisation. Similarly, staff turnover and the
number of audit points may also be considered common indica-
tors. Most indicators are not common, but, rather, specific to
individual businesses or processes. For example, the frequency of
unmatched trades would be a predictor of losses arising from the
settlement process within a retail brokerage but is irrelevant to other
businesses.
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KEY RISK INDICATORS – THEIR ROLE IN OPERATIONAL RISK MANAGEMENT AND MEASUREMENT
2.3 Use to set tolerance levels for your risk appetite for different types of risk
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KEY RISK INDICATORS – THEIR ROLE IN OPERATIONAL RISK MANAGEMENT AND MEASUREMENT
❑ it has been difficult to show that KRIs really track losses well;
❑ there is no consistency in the way organisations use KRIs – vari-
ous units track the same thing but call it something different,
and calculate it differently;
❑ KRI specifications are often incomplete or inaccurate; and, as a
consequence,
❑ it has been difficult to aggregate, compare or interpret KRIs in a
systematic way.
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So, if we can agree that there is great potential business value for a
KRI programme, particularly if it is implemented in a systematic
way across the organisation, with a common language and struc-
ture, then let us proceed to some of the fundamentals in getting
such a programme started.
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KEY RISK INDICATORS – THEIR ROLE IN OPERATIONAL RISK MANAGEMENT AND MEASUREMENT
We believe that the ideal features of KRIs are that they are effec-
tive in tracking the risk, they are comparable within and outside
the organisation and they are practical and easy to use. Table 1 pro-
vides some criteria for assessing indicators against these three
objectives.
Along with a framework for assessing KRIs, it is helpful to
develop some standards for fully specifying an indicator. It is our
experience that a relatively high degree of detail is beneficial in
minimising misunderstandings and in ensuring a high degree of
quality and efficiency in the implementation of KRIs. This detail
should include:
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KEY RISK INDICATORS – THEIR ROLE IN OPERATIONAL RISK MANAGEMENT AND MEASUREMENT
KRI selection
Having a good understanding of the desirable characteristics of a
KRI, we now come to the stage where they must be selected and
bundled into a programme for a business area or unit or the organ-
isation overall. Most practitioners believe that KRIs are of highest
use when applied at a fairly granular level within the organisation,
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10
0
Feb Mar Apr May
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
Feb Mar Apr May
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KEY RISK INDICATORS – THEIR ROLE IN OPERATIONAL RISK MANAGEMENT AND MEASUREMENT
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Management
Management Management
• segregation of duty
External factors External factors
External factors
• regulatory change • natural disasters
People People People
• staff turnover • fraud and theft • fraud and theft
Technology Technology
Technology
• system outages • hacking
Processes Processes
Processes
• volumes • negligence
Thresholds can be set to define each range and trigger each kind of
response. After a threshold is breached, actions taken by managers
to accept or mitigate the risk should be recorded.
Thresholds and escalation triggers are an important risk manage-
ment tool. KRI thresholds will vary from institution to institu-
tion, depending on management’s risk appetite, as well as strategy
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KEY RISK INDICATORS – THEIR ROLE IN OPERATIONAL RISK MANAGEMENT AND MEASUREMENT
and ability. For some risks the thresholds may be quite low and
others higher. They can also change over time, if there is a strategic
decision to manage risk down (or sometimes up). Managers will
become more experienced at setting the appropriate level of thresh-
old over time. This is where art meets science as there can be no
one-size-fits-all approach or algorithm for thresholds. It is subjec-
tive and based upon the managers’ risk appetite and experience,
and that of their peers within the firm.
What is a reasonable number of KRIs? Many financial institu-
tions have a very large number. This may be justified by the hetero-
geneity of operational risks and complexity of financial services
and products. We believe that a large diverse institution would rea-
sonably use between several hundred and a few thousand indica-
tors in middle management. Of course, these cannot all be reported
to senior levels of management. Accordingly, it is very important to
have an appropriate strategy for reporting and aggregating KRIs to
senior management and the board.
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KEY RISK INDICATORS – THEIR ROLE IN OPERATIONAL RISK MANAGEMENT AND MEASUREMENT
The regulators have defined the scope of operational risk and have
provided, for regulatory reporting purposes, an event-type classifica-
tion. The other data dimensions should be defined by each firm
according to its own risk management framework with the appropriate
emphasis placed upon each one in relation to the specific attributes of
each firm: complexity of business model, global and local operations
and management structure, number of product lines and so on.
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KEY RISK INDICATORS – THEIR ROLE IN OPERATIONAL RISK MANAGEMENT AND MEASUREMENT
and exposures within the firm. Generally, the higher the level, the
greater the interest to senior managers, provided it relates to their
area of purview.
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❑ legal: the total number and value of legal claims against the firm,
in total and by business line and peer group;
❑ finance: the number of incidences of late financial reporting by
legal entities within the group, or number of accounting errors
or unexplained differences; and
❑ IT: the number of attempted external attacks to the firewall.
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KEY RISK INDICATORS – THEIR ROLE IN OPERATIONAL RISK MANAGEMENT AND MEASUREMENT
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KEY RISK INDICATORS – THEIR ROLE IN OPERATIONAL RISK MANAGEMENT AND MEASUREMENT
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or market environment. This target is some way off for most firms
today, but we believe the investment will reap many benefits.
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KEY RISK INDICATORS – THEIR ROLE IN OPERATIONAL RISK MANAGEMENT AND MEASUREMENT
Risk capital
Probability
Aggregate loss
EL UL10 UL99.9, 1 yr
Insurance
1. Risk mitigation BCP
programmes
Control strategies
KRI reporting
2. Tools &
mechanisms Risk maps/CSA
Scenario analysis
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the risk information currently in use. It may also assist in defining the
boundary between management techniques such as risk-and-control
assessments and scenario analysis.
Most of the KRIs and management information used to manage
the risk-and-control environment identify the more routine “unex-
pected” risks – those that occur once every 5–10 years – through the
typical operational, investment, market, credit or economic cycle.
This is appropriate because these are the risks that management
can realistically imagine resulting in an event, and that they can
actively influence. True, management may also mitigate the less
regular operational risks through controls such as business conti-
nuity planning, but even these are typically “tested in anger” more
frequently than once in 20, 50 or 100 years, making them easier to
conceptualise, manage and mitigate than risks that occur even less
frequently.
Therefore, we believe that a UL10 basis provides a more appro-
priate measure of risk on which to focus our risk-and-control
assessments and KRI frameworks, and one that should correlate
more closely to good predictive indicators.
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KEY RISK INDICATORS – THEIR ROLE IN OPERATIONAL RISK MANAGEMENT AND MEASUREMENT
❑ white-collar crime;
❑ blue-collar crime;
❑ payment systems stability;
❑ weather events; and
❑ terrorism ratings.
Internal/external benchmarking
There should be an optimum level of operational risk exposure for
a given institution – in theory, being too low could be as costly as
being too high. An overcontrolled organisation that continues to
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KEY RISK INDICATORS – THEIR ROLE IN OPERATIONAL RISK MANAGEMENT AND MEASUREMENT
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Technology
Finance
Oversight
Human
resources
Corporate
services
Risk point
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KEY RISK INDICATORS – THEIR ROLE IN OPERATIONAL RISK MANAGEMENT AND MEASUREMENT
%
%
15 10
10
5
5
0 0
Bank Bank Bank Bank Bank Bank ABC Bank Mean Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
1 2 3 4 5 6 8 2004 2004 2004 2004 2005
Benchmarking
As an extension of the original RMA/RiskBusiness initiative, a
global set of working groups continue to investigate both changing
trends in exposure and changes in the identified risk profiles. These
same working groups are involved in extending and maintaining
this library of KRIs. At the same time, subscribers who have identi-
fied which indicators they wish to compare with their peers are
now engaged in collecting indicator information in accordance
with agreed specifications, with the purpose of comparing values
against their peer group. An example of the kind of reporting to be
generated in support of this benchmarking is shown in Figure 8.
In this example, a fictional bank, ABC, is shown as being above the
mean for the current analysis period, and historically not only usually
above the mean, but tending towards the top end of the exposure dis-
tribution. If ABC considered itself relatively risk-adverse, it would
expect to be consistently below the mean for any risk measure. So, in
this case, ABC management would want to initiate corrective action
to reduce relative risk. However, it is possible that, when this indicator
was selected internally for management purposes, a threshold range
was established that has still not been triggered – it is only through
comparison with peers that we can identify that we are out of synch
(or have a competitive advantage) relative to the market.
This initiative has proved two things: first, firms are prepared to
work together to ensure appropriate internal risk management;
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CONCLUSION
Today, many firms have, often from necessity, left the establish-
ment of an integrated KRI programme to last in their order of pri-
orities. Many industry participants question the role of indicators,
both from a top-down and a bottom-up perspective. Others argue
that industry participants would be reluctant to contribute KRI
data for benchmarking, due to discoverability issues as well as the
potential for gaming.
However, KRIs (or risk indicators in general) have one very spe-
cific quality that no other operational risk management or meas-
urement tool offers: quasi real-time exposure information.
KEY RISK INDICATORS – THEIR ROLE IN OPERATIONAL RISK MANAGEMENT AND MEASUREMENT
However, similar to the way in which the fuel gauge, oil pressure
gauge, engine temperature gauge and speedometer in a motor vehi-
cle all provide you with vital information as to your safety and like-
lihood of survival, a KRI programme is the only way to provide
management with the real-time targeted feedback they need to make
mid-course adjustments as required. And that is essential to the
achievement of business goals and the safety of the organisation.
REFERENCE
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