6 Hansen Model PDF
6 Hansen Model PDF
6 Hansen Model PDF
George McCandless
UCEMA
Spring 2007
1
The speci…c utility functions
u(ct ; 1 ht ) = ln ct + A ln(1 ht )
with A > 0.
t+1 = t + "t+1
kt+1 = (1 )kt + it
f ( t ; kt ; ht ) ct + it
Bellmans equation
The basic Bellmans equation
subject to
1
t kt ht ct + it ;
t+1 = t + "t+1 ; and
kt+1 = (1 )kt + it :
Simpler to write as
1
V (kt ; t) = max ln t kt ht + (1 )kt kt+1
kt+1 ;ht
2
First order conditions are
@V (kt ; t ) 1
= 0= 1
@kt+1 t kt ht
+ (1 )kt kt+1
+ Et [Vk (kt+1 ; t+1 ) j t ]
and
@V (kt ; t) 1
= 0 = (1 ) 1 t kt ht
@ht t kt ht + (1 )kt kt+1
1
A
1 ht
and
1
(1 ) (1 ht ) t kt ht =A t kt ht + (1 )kt kt+1
In equilibrium,
1
ct = t kt ht + (1 )kt kt+1
Stationary states
3
Stationary state value of h = ht = ht+1 is
1
h= h i;
A
1+ (1 ) 1 1 (1 )
(a) These will describe the dynamics within the precision of the approx-
imation
(b) Can be complicated to …nd
i. Especially if the domain of stochastic variable is large
(c) Can be impossible
i. If the model is not single agent
ii. If the model can not be approximated by social planner
2. Alternative approachs
Log-linearization techniques
4
– gives
F 0 (x) G0 (x)
ln(F (x)) + (xt x) ln(G(x)) + (xt x)
F (x) G(x)
H 0 (x)
ln(H(x)) (xt x)
H(x)
Yt = t Kt Ht1
Take logs
ln Yt = ln t + ln Kt + (1 ) ln Ht
ln Y = ln + ln K + (1 ) ln H
get
1 1 (1 )
Yt Y t + Kt K + Ht H
Y K H
That reduces to
Yt t Kt (1 ) Ht
+1 + +
Y K H
5
Log-linearization techniques (Uhlig’s method)
Write the original variable as
f
Xt = XeXt
or
et = ln Xt
X ln X
bring together all the exponential terms that you can
e et
At Bt AeAt B e B
=
Ct C e Cet
becomes
AB e et et
eAt + B C
C
Reference:Uhlig, Harald, (1999) "A toolkit for analysing nonlinear dy-
namic stochastic models easily", in Ramon Marimon and Andrew Scott,
Eds., Computational Methods for the Study of Dynamic Economies, Ox-
ford University Press, Oxford, p.30-61.
= et + B
1+A et et ;
C
So
e et et et + B
et et
eAt + B C
1+A C
The approximation is
At Bt AB et + B
et et
1+A C
Ct C
Log-linearization techniques (Uhlig’s method)
Some rules from Uhlig
e e et + aYet ;
eXt +aYt 1+X
X et Yet 0;
h i h i
e et+1
Et aeXt+1 a + aEt X
h i
Et [Xt+1 ] = X 1 + Et X et+1
6
Log linear version of Hansen’s model
First equation
Ct
1 = Et (rt+1 + (1 ))
Ct+1
" e e
#
CeCt et+1
r CeCt
1 = Et re + (1 )
CeCet+1 CeCet+1
h i
e e e e
= Et reCt Ct+1 +ert+1 + (1 ) eCt Ct+1
h i h i
rEt 1 + C et C et+1 + ret+1 + (1 et
) 1+C et+1
C
h i
= Et 1 + Cet C et+1 + re rt+1 ;
0 et
C et+1 + rEt ret+1
Et C
Second equation
Yt
ACt = (1 ) (1 Ht )
Ht
e Y Yet et e
ACeCt = (1 ) e H
(1 ) Y eYt
H
et Y
AC 1 + C (1 ) 1 + Yet
Het (1 ) Y 1 + Yet
H
" #
et 1 H Y e Y e
AC C (1 ) Yt (1 ) Ht
H H
7
given that in the stationary state
1 H Y
AC = (1 )
H
This becomes
Y et
(1 )H H
et
C Yet e t = Yet
H
(1 H )Y 1 H
(1 ) H
so
et
H
et
0=C Yet +
1 H
Log linear version of Hansen’s model
0 et + K
e t + (1 et
)H Yet
0 Yet et
K ret
where r = Y =K
t+1 = t + "t+1
1 + et+1 = 1 + et + "t+1
8
The equations of the full log-linear model are
0 et
= C et+1 + rEt ret+1
Et C
e
et Yet + Ht
0 = C
1 H
h i
0 = Y Yet C Cet + K (1 )Ket e t+1
K
0 = et + Ke t + (1 et
)H Yet
0 = Yet Ke t ret
and
et+1 = et +
t+1
zt = [ t ]
Where 2 3 2 3
0 0
6 K 7 6 K( + 1) 7
A=6
4
7 B=6 7
0 5 4 5
0 1
9
2 1 3
1 1 1 H
0
6 Y C 0 0 7
C=6
4 1
7
0 1 0 5
1 0 0 1
Solving the linear version of the model
2 3
0
6 0 7
D=4 6 7
1 5
0
L = [0]
M = [0]
N = [ ]
xt = P xt + Qzt
1
yt = Rxt 1 + Szt
1
Note that here C is of full rank and has a well de…ned inverse C
The solutions can be found from
0 = (F JC 1 A)P 2 (JC 1
B G + KC 1
A)P KC 1
B+H
R = C 1 (AP + B);
N0 (F JC 1
A) + Ik (JR + F P + G KC 1
A) vec(Q)
1 1
= vec JC D L)N + KC D M
and
1
S= C (AQ + D)
xt = P xt 1 + Qzt ;
yt = Rxt 1 + Szt :
10
We begin by substituting the laws of motion into the two equations of the
model
Reduce each equation to one in which there are only two variables:
xt 1 and zt :
Substitute in
xt = P xt 1 + Qzt ;
yt = Rxt 1 + Szt :
11
Explaining the solution
The two equations can be rearranged to give
0 = [AP + B + CR] xt 1 + [AQ + CS + D] zt ;
and
0 = [F P P + GP + H + JRP + KR] xt 1
+ [F P Q + F QN + GQ + JRQ + JSN + KS + LN + M ] zt :
Since these equations need to hold for all xt 1 and zt , it must be that
0 = AP + B + CR
0 = AQ + CS + D
0 = F P P + GP + H + JRP + KR
0 = F P Q + F QN + GQ + JRQ + JSN + KS + LN + M
+H KC 1 AP KC 1 B
0 = F JC 1 A P 2 JC 1 B + KC 1 A G P
1
KC B+H
12
The solution to this equation is found from
p
b b2 4ac
P =
2a
There are usually two di¤erent solutions to this problem. We use jP j < 1
in order to choose the stable root.
Once P is known, …nding R is simple using
1 1
R= C AP C B
0 = F P Q + F QN + GQ + JRQ + JSN + KS + LN + M
and
0 = AQ + CS + D
S can be written as
1 1
S= C AQ C D
Rearrange to get
1 1
F P + G + JR KC A Q+ F JC A QN
1 1
= JC DN + KC D LN + M
This equation
1 1
F P + G + JR KC A Q+ F JC A QN
1 1
= JC DN + KC D LN + M
13
Need to use a theorem from advanced matrix algebra
Theorem 1 Let A, B, and C be matrices whose dimensions are such that the
product ABC exists. Then
Think of
1 1
F P + G + JR KC A Q+ F JC A QN
1 1
= JC DN + KC D LN + M
as
W QI + XQN = Z
(notice that we added I) where
1
W = F P + G + JR KC A
X = F JC 1 A
Z = JC 1 DN + KC 1 D LN + M
This equals
or
(I 0 W + N0 X) vec (Q) = vec (Z)
If (I 0 W + N0 X) is invertible
1
vec (Q) = (I 0 W + N0 X) vec (Z)
14
First vec 2 3
a11
6 a21 7
6 7
a11 a12 a13 6 a12 7
vec =6
6
7:
7
a21 a22 a23 6 a22 7
4 a13 5
a23
Calibration
– = :99
– = :025
– = :36
15
r = 1= = 1:0101
From data for US use = :95
F = [0]
G = [0]
H = [0]
J= 0 1 0 :0348
K= 0 1 0 0
L = [0]
M = [0]
N = [:95]
16
The matrices R and S are
2 3 2 3
0:204 5 1: 452 3
6 0:569 1 7 6 0:392 7
R=6 4
7
5 and S= 6
4 0:706 7 5
7
0:243
0:795 5 1: 452 3
Simulations
17
Does well for consumption
Badly for hours worked and investment
Add unemployment
18
Problem of non-convexity of consumption set
– straight lines between any two points in set are also in set
Household problem
maximize
1
X
t
max u(ct ; t)
t=0
subject to
ct + it = wt ht + rt kt
t = probability in time t of supplying h0 units of labor
19
Expected utility
A ln(1 h0 ) ht
u(ct ; t) = ln ct + ht + A(1 ) ln(1)
h0 h0
A ln(1 h0 )
u(ct ; t) = ln ct + ht
h0
Household problem
with
A ln(1 h0 )
B=
h0
subject to constraints
1
t kt ht = ct + kt+1 (1 )kt
and
ln t+1 = ln t + "t+1
Household problem
Ct
1 = Et (rt+1 + (1 )) ;
Ct+1
(1 ) Yt
Ct = :
BHt
Full model
Ct
1 = Et (rt+1 + (1 ))
Ct+1
(1 ) Yt
Ct =
BHt
20
Ct + Kt+1 = Yt + (1 )Kt
1 1
rt = K
t t H t
1
Yt = t K t Ht
Stationary state
Equations
1
= r + (1 )
(1 )Y
C =
BH
1 1
r = K H
1
Y = K H
C = Y K
solve to give
1
(1 ) 1
H= and K= H
B 1 1 + (1 )
1 (1 )
Stationary state
Comparing to basic Hansen model
1 (1 )
h i= ;
A A ln(1 h0 )
1+ (1 ) 1 1 (1 ) h0 1 1 (1 )
A ln(1 h0 )
We replaced B with h0
21
Stationary state
Solve to get
h i
A
h0 (1 ) 1 1 (1 )
= h i =G
ln(1 h0 ) 1+ A
1
(1 ) 1 (1 )
G is a constant
To …nd h0
Get h0 = :583, = :573, and H = :3335
Log-linear model
Solution method
22
Solve for
xt = P xt 1 + Qzt
yt = Rxt 1 + Szt
2 3 2 3
0 0
6 K 7 6 K( + 1) 7
A=6
4
7 B=6 7
0 5 4 5
0 1
2 3 2 3
1 1 1 0 0
6 Y C 0 0 7 6 0 7
C=6
4 1
7 D=6 7
0 (1 ) 0 5 4 1 5
1 0 0 1 0
F = [0] ; G = [0] ; H = [0]
J= 0 1 0 r K= 0 1 0 0
L = [0] ; M = [0] ; and N = [ ] :
Results
and
et + S
yt = R K t
where
2 3 2 3
0:055 1: 941 8
6 0:531 6 7 6 0:470 3 7
R=6 7
4 0:476 6 5 S=6 7
4 1: 471 5 5
0:945 1: 941 7
Results
Yet et
C et
H ret Iet
Standard errors 6:431 " 4:081 " 3:444 " 4:514 " 15:722 "
As % of output 100% 63:4 6% 53:5 5% 70:1 9% 244:5%
Increased variance in hours worked
Slight increase in investment
Lower variance in consumption (compared to data)
23
0.01
0.008
technology
0.006
0.004
0.002
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
periods
24
-3
x 10
20
15
Y
K
10
C
r
-5
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
periods
-3
x 10
20
15 Y
10
C
-5
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
periods
25
0.02
K C
0.015 Y
0.005
100 r
-0.005 H
50 0.015 0.02
0.005 0.01
-0.01 -0.005 0
-0.01
0
Basic model
-3
x 10
20
15
response of model with indivisible laobr
H
45°
Y
10
K
5
-5
-5 0 5 10 15 20
response of model w ith divisible labor -3
x 10
26