Continious Random Distribution
Continious Random Distribution
Continious Random Distribution
Business Statistics:
A Decision-Making Approach
6th Edition
Chapter 5
Discrete and Continuous
Probability Distributions
Chapter Goals
After completing this chapter, you should be
able to:
Apply the binomial distribution to applied problems
Probability Distributions
Probability
Distributions
Discrete Continuous
Probability Probability
Distributions Distributions
Binomial Normal
Poisson Uniform
Hypergeometric Exponential
Business Statistics: A Decision-Making Approach, 6e © 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 5-3
Discrete
Probability
Distributions
Binomial
Poisson
Hypergeometric
Business Statistics: A Decision-Making Approach, 6e © 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 5-6
n! x −x
P(x) = p qn
x ! (n − x )!
Binomial Distribution
The shape of the binomial distribution depends on the
values of p and n
Mean .6
P(X) n = 5 p = 0.1
.4
.2
Here, n = 5 and p = .1
0 X
0 1 2 3 4 5
P(X) n = 5 p = 0.5
.6
.4
Here, n = 5 and p = .5 .2
0 X
0 1 2 3 4 5
Business Statistics: A Decision-Making Approach, 6e © 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 5-11
Binomial Distribution
Characteristics
Mean
µ = E(x) = np
Variance and Standard Deviation
σ 2 = npq
σ = npq
Where n = sample size
p = probability of success
q = (1 – p) = probability of failure
Business Statistics: A Decision-Making Approach, 6e © 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 5-12
Binomial Characteristics
Examples
µ = np = (5)(.1) = 0.5
Mean P(X) n = 5 p = 0.1
.6
.4
σ = npq = (5)(.1)(1 − .1) .2
= 0.6708 0 X
0 1 2 3 4 5
Examples:
n = 10, p = .35, x = 3: P(x = 3|n =10, p = .35) = .2522
n = 10, p = .75, x = 2: P(x = 2|n =10, p = .75) = .0004
Business Statistics: A Decision-Making Approach, 6e © 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 5-14
Using PHStat
Select PHStat / Probability & Prob. Distributions / Binomial…
Using PHStat
Enter desired values in dialog box
Here: n = 10
p = .35
Output for x = 0
to x = 10 will be
generated by PHStat
PHStat Output
Discrete
Probability
Distributions
Binomial
Poisson
Hypergeometric
Business Statistics: A Decision-Making Approach, 6e © 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 5-18
( λ t ) x e − λt
P( x ) =
x!
where:
t = size of the segment of interest
x = number of successes in segment of interest
λ = expected number of successes in a segment of unit size
e = base of the natural logarithm system (2.71828...)
Poisson Distribution
Characteristics
Mean
µ = λt
Variance and Standard Deviation
σ 2 = λt
σ = λt
where λ = number of successes in a segment of unit size
t = the size of the segment of interest
Graphically: 0.60
λt = 0.40
P(x)
X 0.50
0.30
0 0.6065
0.20
1 0.3033
2 0.0758 0.10
3 0.0126 0.00
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
4 0.0016
5 0.0002 x
6 0.0000
P(x = 2) = .0758
7 0.0000
λt = 0.50 λt = 3.0
0.70 0.25
0.60
0.20
0.50
0.15
0.40
P(x)
P(x)
0.30 0.10
0.20
0.05
0.10
0.00 0.00
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
x x
Discrete
Probability
Distributions
Binomial
Poisson
Hypergeometric
Business Statistics: A Decision-Making Approach, 6e © 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 5-25
Hypergeometric Distribution
Formula
(Two possible outcomes per trial)
CNn−−xX . C xX
P( x ) =
CNn
Where
N = Population size
X = number of successes in the population
n = sample size
x = number of successes in the sample
n – x = number of failures in the sample
Hypergeometric Distribution
Formula
■ Example: 3 Light bulbs were selected from 10. Of the
10 there were 4 defective. What is the probability that 2
of the 3 selected are defective?
N = 10 n=3
X=4 x=2
Hypergeometric Distribution
in PHStat
Select:
PHStat / Probability & Prob. Distributions / Hypergeometric …
Hypergeometric Distribution
in PHStat
(continued)
N = 10 n=3
X=4 x=2
Continuous
Probability
Distributions
Normal
Uniform
Exponential
Business Statistics: A Decision-Making Approach, 6e © 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 5-31
Changing σ increases
or decreases the
σ spread.
µ x
Probability is the
Probability is measured by the area
area under the
curve! under the curve
f(x) P (a ≤ x ≤ b)
a b x
Probability as
Area Under the Curve
The total area under the curve is 1.0, and the curve is
symmetric, so half is above the mean, half is below
0.5 0.5
µ x
P(−∞ < x < ∞) = 1.0
Business Statistics: A Decision-Making Approach, 6e © 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 5-36
Empirical Rules
x
µ−1σ µ µ+1σ
68.26%
Business Statistics: A Decision-Making Approach, 6e © 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 5-37
2σ 2σ 3σ 3σ
µ x µ x
95.44% 99.72%
f(z)
0 z
x −µ
z=
σ
Example
x − µ 250 − 100
z= = = 3.0
σ 50
This says that x = 250 is three standard
deviations (3 increments of 50 units) above
the mean of 100.
µ = 100
σ = 50
100 250 x
0 3.0 z
Note that the distribution is the same, only the
scale has changed. We can express the problem in
original units (x) or in standardized units (z)
0 2.00 z
0.1
The row shows
the value of z 0.2
to the first . The value within the
.
decimal point . table gives the
2.0 .4772
probability from z = 0
up to the desired z
P(0 < z < 2.00)2.0
= .4772 value
Z Table example
Suppose x is normal with mean 8.0 and
standard deviation 5.0. Find P(8 < x < 8.6)
Calculate z-values:
x −µ 8−8
z= = =0
σ 5
8 8.6 x
x − µ 8.6 − 8 0 0.12 Z
z= = = 0.12
σ 5 P(8 < x < 8.6)
= P(0 < z < 0.12)
Business Statistics: A Decision-Making Approach, 6e © 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 5-48
Z Table example
(continued)
Suppose x is normal with mean 8.0 and
standard deviation 5.0. Find P(8 < x < 8.6)
µ=8 µ=0
σ=5 σ=1
8 8.6 x 0 0.12 z
Z
8.0
8.6
Business Statistics: A Decision-Making Approach, 6e © 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 5-51
.5000 .0478
P(x < 8.6)
= P(z < 0.12)
= P(z < 0) + P(0 < z < 0.12)
= .5 + .0478 = .5478 Z
0.00
Business Statistics: A Decision-Making Approach, 6e © 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc. 0.12 Chap 5-52
Z
8.0
8.6
Business Statistics: A Decision-Making Approach, 6e © 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 5-53
.0478
.5000 .50 - .0478
= .4522
Z Z
0 0
0.12 0.12
Business Statistics: A Decision-Making Approach, 6e © 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 5-54
Z
8.0
7.4
Business Statistics: A Decision-Making Approach, 6e © 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 5-55
PHStat Output
Continuous
Probability
Distributions
Normal
Uniform
Exponential
Business Statistics: A Decision-Making Approach, 6e © 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 5-60
1
if a ≤ x ≤ b
b−a
f(x) =
0 otherwise
where
f(x) = value of the density function at any x value
a = lower limit of the interval
b = upper limit of the interval
Uniform Distribution
Example: Uniform Probability Distribution
Over the range 2 ≤ x ≤ 6:
1
f(x) = 6 - 2 = .25 for 2 ≤ x ≤ 6
f(x)
.25
2 6 x
Continuous
Probability
Distributions
Normal
Uniform
Exponential
Business Statistics: A Decision-Making Approach, 6e © 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 5-64
Examples:
Time between trucks arriving at an unloading
dock
Time between transactions at an ATM Machine
P(0 ≤ x ≤ a) = 1 − e − λa
where 1/λ is the mean time between events
Exponential Distribution
(continued)
f(x)
λ = 3.0
(mean = .333)
λ = 1.0
(mean = 1.0)
λ= 0.5
(mean = 2.0)
Example
Chapter Summary